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ASU

Arizona State 46 at Oregon State 33

ORST
2020 · Week 16 · Dec 19, 2020 · Reser Stadium
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Win probability · ORST
modelORST aheadASU aheadconfidence bandkey playORST scoreASU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 1:02 · Michael Turk punt for 39 yds, downed at the OrgSt 33
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+46.5+23.30−23.3−46.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 86Home team on offense−11.0Pregame prior−12.9Score differential−5.7Garbage-time factor−2.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−1.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 11:03: Jayden Daniels pass complete to Geordon Porter for 63 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — ASU win probability +7.5 pts (now 75%) (top driver: ASU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 7:22: Rachaad White run for 4 yds for a TD ( KICK) — ASU win probability +10.2 pts (now 86%) (top driver: ASU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 10:50: Jayden Daniels run for 53 yds for a TD ( KICK) — ASU win probability +12.1 pts (now 90%) (top driver: ASU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 4:32: Rachaad White run for 55 yds for a TD ( KICK) — ASU win probability +12.0 pts (now 95%) (top driver: ASU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 12:43: Ricky Pearsall run for 29 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — ASU win probability +12.4 pts (now 97%) (top driver: ASU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ORST made the numbers' call on 6 of 7ASU made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 15:00ASU 4th & 15 at ASU 14, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.6%−0.2
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 4:55ORST 4th & 10 at ASU 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.4%−<0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    36.2%−0.1
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    36.4%
    average punt
  3. Q2 11:03ORST 4th & 20 at ORST 15, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.7%−1.6
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.3%
    average punt
  4. Q2 5:43ORST 4th & 2 at ORST 43, down 19
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 20.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    21.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    20.8%−0.3
    average punt
  5. Q2 1:02ASU 4th & 4 at ASU 28, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.0%−0.6
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.6%
    average punt
  6. Q3 4:28ORST 4th & 1 at ORST 35, down 19
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 11.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    12.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    11.0%−1.6
    average punt
  7. Q3 1:40ASU 4th & 8 at ORST 42, up 13
    Close callPunted · 87.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.0%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    86.9%−1.1
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    87.7%−0.3
    average punt
  8. Q4 15:00ORST 4th & 7 at ORST 37, down 13
    Close callWent for it · 16.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    16.8%−0.4
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    17.2%
    average punt
  9. Q4 12:43ORST 4th & 9 at ORST 26, down 19
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.8%−1.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.9%
    average punt
  10. Q4 11:45ASU 4th & 6 at ORST 49, up 19
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.8%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.9%
    average punt
  11. Q4 7:16ORST 4th & 9 at ORST 21, down 19
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.0%−0.2
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.2%
    average punt
  12. Q4 6:21ASU 4th & 4 at ORST 29, up 19
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    97.7%−0.3
    58% to make
    Punt
    95.9%−2.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ORST made the numbers' call on 1 of 4ASU made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
  1. Q1 8:56ORST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    36.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    36.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 5:01ASU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 12:44ASU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    66.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 11:03ASU Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    72.0%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    72.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 7:22ASU Touchdown, up 18 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 1:44ORST Touchdown, down 13 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    25.3%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    25.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 10:50ASU Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 7:06ORST Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    21.2%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    21.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 4:32ASU Touchdown, up 18 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q3 1:40ORST Touchdown, down 13 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    14.3%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    14.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 12:43ASU Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    96.1%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    95.8%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ASUDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · -5 yds · 0:0073% → 73%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-5
26.9%
ARIZONA ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the ArzSt 14Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 15
OWN 14
0
26.9%
Jayden Daniels pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 15
OWN 14
0
26.9%
Jayden Daniels pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 15
OWN 14
0
26.9%
Jayden Daniels pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 15
OWN 14
-5
26.9%
Michael Turk punt for 21 yds , returns for a loss of 5 yards to the OrgSt 9 OREGON ST Penalty, personal foul (John McCartan) to the OrgSt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 2TD
12 plays · 67 yds · 5:3527% → 32%
Q1 14:31
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+9
27.1%
Jesiah Irish run for 9 yds to the OrgSt 42Similar
Q1 14:31
2ND & 1
OWN 42
0
27.1%
Jermar Jefferson run for no gain to the OrgSt 42Similar
Q1 14:31
3RD & 1
OWN 42
+2
27.1%
Chance Nolan run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:31
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
27.1%
Chance Nolan pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:31
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+9
27.1%
Jermar Jefferson run for 9 yds to the ArzSt 47Similar
Q1 14:31
3RD & 1
OPP 47
+3
27.1%
Jack Colletto run for 3 yds to the ArzSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:31
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+8
27.2%
Jermar Jefferson run for 8 yds to the ArzSt 36Similar
Q1 14:31
2ND & 2
OPP 36
+2
27.2%
B.J. Baylor run for 2 yds to the ArzSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:31
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+9
27.2%
B.J. Baylor run for 9 yds to the ArzSt 25Similar
Q1 14:31
2ND & 1
OPP 25
0
27.2%
Jermar Jefferson run for no gain to the ArzSt 25Similar
Q1 14:31
3RD & 1
OPP 25
+13
27.1%
Jack Colletto run for 13 yds to the ArzSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:56
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
32.3%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Tyjon Lindsey for 12 yds for a TD ( KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 3TD
10 plays · 73 yds · 3:4968% → 70%
Q1 8:50
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+2
31.7%
DeaMonte Trayanum run for 2 yds to the ArzSt 29Similar
Q1 8:50
2ND & 8
OWN 29
+5
31.7%
DeaMonte Trayanum run for 5 yds to the ArzSt 34Similar
Q1 8:50
3RD & 3
OWN 34
+11
31.6%
Jayden Daniels run for 11 yds to the ArzSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:50
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+51
31.4%
Rachaad White run for 51 yds to the OrgSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
30.9%
Rachaad White run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 2Similar
Q1 8:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
-5
30.9%
ARIZONA ST Penalty, false start (Ryan Morgan) to the OrgSt 7Similar
Q1 8:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
30.9%
Rachaad White run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 3Similar
Q1 8:50
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
31.1%
Daniels,Jayden pass incomplete to Porter,Geordon (Austin, Alex), PENALTY OSU pass interference (Austin, Alex) 1 yards to the OSU2, 1ST DOWN ASU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
30.2%
DeaMonte Trayanum run for 2 yds for a TD ( KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 4PUNT
10 plays · 30 yds · 0:0032% → 32%
Q1 4:55
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+4
31.7%
Jermar Jefferson run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 33Similar
Q1 4:55
2ND & 6
OWN 33
+5
31.8%
Jermar Jefferson run for 5 yds to the OrgSt 38Similar
Q1 4:55
3RD & 1
OWN 38
+3
32.1%
Jermar Jefferson run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:55
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+18
32.2%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Teagan Quitoriano for 18 yds to the ArzSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:55
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+3
32.7%
B.J. Baylor run for 3 yds to the ArzSt 38Similar
Q1 4:55
2ND & 7
OPP 38
-5
32.7%
OREGON ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the ArzSt 43Similar
Q1 4:55
2ND & 12
OPP 43
0
32.3%
Chance Nolan pass incomplete to Tyjon LindseySimilar
Q1 4:55
3RD & 12
OPP 43
+2
31.9%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Zeriah Beason for 2 yds to the ArzSt 41Similar
Q1 4:55
4TH & 10
OPP 41
0
31.5%
TEAM punt blocked by Will Shaffer blocked by Will ShafferSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 5TD
8 plays · 37 yds · 3:4169% → 72%
Q1 1:25
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+1
31.4%
Rachaad White run for 1 yd to the OrgSt 36Similar
Q1 1:25
2ND & 9
OPP 36
+3
31.5%
Jayden Daniels run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 33Similar
Q1 1:25
3RD & 6
OPP 33
+13
31.7%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Ricky Pearsall for 13 yds to the OrgSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+5
31.5%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to LV Bunkley-Shelton for 5 yds to the OrgSt 15Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 15
+4
31.5%
Rachaad White run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 11Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 11
+2
31.9%
DeaMonte Trayanum run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
31.5%
DeaMonte Trayanum run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 7Similar
Q2 12:44
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
28.2%
Jayden Daniels run for 7 yds for a TD ( PAT BLOCKED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 6FUMBLE
4 plays · 24 yds · 0:0031% → 32%
Q2 12:36
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+13
30.9%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Luke Musgrave for 13 yds to the ArzSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:36
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
32.0%
Tyjon Lindsey run for 3 yds to the ArzSt 45Similar
Q2 12:36
2ND & 7
OPP 45
+9
32.1%
Jermar Jefferson run for 9 yds to the ArzSt 37 Jermar Jefferson fumbled, forced by Evan Fields, recovered by ArzSt Jermayne LoleSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 7TD
1 play · 63 yds · 0:0075% → 75%
Q2 11:03
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+63
24.6%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Geordon Porter for 63 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 8PUNT
7 plays · -10 yds · 0:0025% → 25%
Q2 11:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
25.3%
Chance Nolan pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:03
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-5
25.2%
OREGON ST Penalty, false start (Jesiah Irish) to the OrgSt 20Similar
Q2 11:03
2ND & 15
OWN 20
0
25.1%
Chance Nolan pass incomplete to Anthony Gould, broken up by Chase LucasSimilar
Q2 11:03
3RD & 15
OWN 20
0
24.6%
Chance Nolan pass incomplete to Tyjon LindseySimilar
Q2 11:03
4TH & 15
OWN 20
-5
24.6%
OREGON ST Penalty, false start (Alton Julian) to the OrgSt 15Similar
Q2 11:03
4TH & 20
OWN 15
-2
24.6%
Luke Loecher punt for 43 yds , returns for a loss of 2 yards to the ArzSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 9TD
8 plays · 60 yds · 3:1376% → 86%
Q2 10:35
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
23.9%
DeaMonte Trayanum run for 5 yds to the ArzSt 45Similar
Q2 10:35
2ND & 5
OWN 45
+1
23.9%
DeaMonte Trayanum run for 1 yd to the ArzSt 46Similar
Q2 10:35
3RD & 4
OWN 46
+23
24.1%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Ricky Pearsall for 23 yds to the OrgSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:35
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+26
23.8%
DeaMonte Trayanum run for 26 yds to the OrgSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
23.8%
Jayden Daniels pass incomplete to LV Bunkley-Shelton, broken up by Isaiah DunnSimilar
Q2 10:35
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
-3
23.8%
DeaMonte Trayanum run for a loss of 3 yards to the OrgSt 8Similar
Q2 10:35
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
23.9%
Daniels,Jayden pass incomplete to Bunkley-Shelton, PENALTY OSU personal foul (Austin, Alex) 4 yards to the OSU4, 1ST DOWN ASU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
13.8%
Rachaad White run for 4 yds for a TD ( KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 10TD
14 plays · 65 yds · 5:3819% → 26%
Q2 7:22
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-1
18.6%
B.J. Baylor run for a loss of 1 yard to the OrgSt 34Similar
Q2 7:22
2ND & 11
OWN 34
-3
18.3%
Jermar Jefferson run for a loss of 3 yards to the OrgSt 31Similar
Q2 7:22
3RD & 14
OWN 31
+12
18.1%
Chance Nolan run for 12 yds to the OrgSt 43Similar
Q2 5:43
4TH & 2
OWN 43
+12
18.5%
Chance Nolan run for 12 yds to the ArzSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:43
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
19.0%
Chance Nolan run for no gain to the ArzSt 45Similar
Q2 5:43
2ND & 10
OPP 45
0
18.9%
Chance Nolan pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:43
3RD & 10
OPP 45
+25
18.6%
Jermar Jefferson run for 25 yds to the ArzSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:43
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+9
19.9%
Tyjon Lindsey run for 9 yds to the ArzSt 11Similar
Q2 5:43
2ND & 1
OPP 11
+3
19.9%
Jermar Jefferson run for 3 yds to the ArzSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
19.9%
Jermar Jefferson run for 3 yds to the ArzSt 5Similar
Q2 5:43
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
19.9%
Jermar Jefferson run for 4 yds to the ArzSt 1Similar
Q2 1:44
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
26.4%
Jack Colletto run for 1 yd for a TD ARIZONA ST Penalty, offside defense (Geordon Porter) to the ArzSt 2 ( Run For Two-point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · 6 yds · 0:3675% → 77%
Q2 1:38
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+2
24.7%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to D.J. Taylor for 2 yds to the ArzSt 24Similar
Q2 1:38
2ND & 8
OWN 24
+4
24.7%
Daniyel Ngata run for 4 yds to the ArzSt 28Similar
Q2 1:02
3RD & 4
OWN 28
0
22.8%
Jayden Daniels pass incomplete to LV Bunkley-SheltonSimilar
Q2 1:02
4TH & 4
OWN 28
0
23.5%
Michael Turk punt for 39 yds, downed at the OrgSt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 12END OF HALF
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0623% → 23%
Q2 0:51
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
23.2%
Jermar Jefferson run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 36Similar
Q2 0:45
2ND & 7
OWN 36
+2
23.3%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Tyjon Lindsey for 2 yds to the OrgSt 38Similar
Q2 0:45
3RD & 5
OWN 38
+2
23.1%
Chance Nolan run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 13INT
5 plays · 30 yds · 0:0023% → 25%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
23.0%
Jermar Jefferson run for no gain to the OrgSt 23Similar
Q3 14:53
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+19
22.9%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Jake Overman for 19 yds to the OrgSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+11
24.1%
Chance Nolan run for 11 yds to the ArzSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+2
25.0%
Chance Nolan pass intercepted DeAndre Pierce return for a loss of 2 yards to the ArzSt 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 14TD
5 plays · 95 yds · 2:1577% → 90%
Q3 13:05
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+13
23.3%
Rachaad White run for 13 yds to the ArzSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:05
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+1
22.9%
Rachaad White run for 1 yd to the ArzSt 19Similar
Q3 13:05
2ND & 9
OWN 19
+15
23.0%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Rachaad White for 15 yds to the ArzSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:05
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+13
22.5%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Rachaad White for 13 yds to the ArzSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+53
10.3%
Jayden Daniels run for 53 yds for a TD ( KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 15TD
10 plays · 74 yds · 3:3613% → 22%
Q3 10:42
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+9
12.6%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Zeriah Beason for 9 yds to the OrgSt 35Similar
Q3 10:42
2ND & 1
OWN 35
+10
13.2%
Jermar Jefferson run for 10 yds to the OrgSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:42
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+9
13.7%
Jermar Jefferson run for 9 yds to the ArzSt 46Similar
Q3 10:42
2ND & 1
OPP 46
0
14.2%
Chance Nolan pass incomplete to Zeriah BeasonSimilar
Q3 10:42
3RD & 1
OPP 46
+14
14.2%
Jack Colletto run for 14 yds to the ArzSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:42
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+14
14.3%
Chance Nolan run for 14 yds to the ArzSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:42
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+4
14.5%
Tyjon Lindsey run for 4 yds to the ArzSt 14Similar
Q3 10:42
2ND & 6
OPP 14
+3
14.5%
Jermar Jefferson run for 3 yds to the ArzSt 11Similar
Q3 7:06
3RD & 3
OPP 11
+11
21.9%
Jack Colletto run for 11 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 16TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 2:3482% → 95%
Q3 7:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
18.5%
DeaMonte Trayanum run for 9 yds to the ArzSt 34Similar
Q3 7:06
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+4
18.1%
DeaMonte Trayanum run for 4 yds to the ArzSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:06
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
17.3%
DeaMonte Trayanum run for 2 yds to the ArzSt 40Similar
Q3 7:06
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+5
17.2%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Geordon Porter for 5 yds to the ArzSt 45Similar
Q3 4:32
3RD & 3
OWN 45
+55
5.2%
Rachaad White run for 55 yds for a TD ( KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 17TD
7 plays · 74 yds · 2:4810% → 19%
Q3 4:28
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+7
9.6%
Chance Nolan run for 7 yds to the OrgSt 33Similar
Q3 4:28
2ND & 3
OWN 33
0
10.2%
Jermar Jefferson run for no gain to the OrgSt 33Similar
Q3 4:28
3RD & 3
OWN 33
+2
10.2%
Jack Colletto run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 35Similar
Q3 4:28
4TH & 1
OWN 35
+46
10.1%
Tyjon Lindsey pass complete to Teagan Quitoriano for 46 yds to the ArzSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:28
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-5
12.1%
Jefferson, J. rush for 3 yards to the ASU16 (Forman,Shannon;Robertson,M.), PENALTY OSU 12 men on the field 5 yards to the ASU24, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 1:40
1ST & 15
OPP 24
+24
18.9%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Tre'Shaun Harrison for 24 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 18PUNT
6 plays · 2 yds · 0:0089% → 88%
Q3 1:40
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+4
11.0%
Rachaad White run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 40Similar
Q3 1:40
2ND & 6
OPP 40
-5
10.7%
ARIZONA ST Penalty, false start (Geordon Porter) to the OrgSt 45Similar
Q3 1:40
2ND & 11
OPP 45
+3
11.0%
Jayden Daniels run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 42Similar
Q3 1:40
3RD & 8
OPP 42
0
11.1%
Jayden Daniels pass incomplete to Geordon Porter, broken up by Isaiah DunnSimilar
Q3 1:40
4TH & 8
OPP 42
0
12.2%
Michael Turk punt for 27 yds, fair catch by Anthony Gould at the OrgSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 19DOWNS
7 plays · 14 yds · 0:0716% → 16%
Q3 0:07
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+4
15.7%
Jermar Jefferson run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 19Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 19
0
15.7%
Jermar Jefferson run for no gain to the OrgSt 19Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 19
+15
15.0%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Tyjon Lindsey for 15 yds to the OrgSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
16.4%
Chance Nolan pass incomplete to Zeriah BeasonSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+3
16.1%
Jermar Jefferson run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 37Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 37
0
15.8%
Chance Nolan pass incomplete to Teagan QuitorianoSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 7
OWN 37
-8
15.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 8 yards to the OrgSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 20TD
1 play · 29 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q4 12:43
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+29
3.1%
Ricky Pearsall run for 29 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q4 12:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
5.2%
Chance Nolan pass incomplete to Zeriah Beason, broken up by Chase LucasSimilar
Q4 12:43
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
5.1%
Jermar Jefferson run for 1 yd to the OrgSt 26Similar
Q4 12:43
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
5.1%
Chance Nolan pass incomplete to Tyjon LindseySimilar
Q4 12:43
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
5.1%
Luke Loecher punt for 53 yds, downed at the ArzSt 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 22PUNT
9 plays · 30 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q4 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+8
3.1%
Daniyel Ngata run for 8 yds to the ArzSt 29Similar
Q4 11:45
2ND & 2
OWN 29
+8
3.1%
Daniyel Ngata run for 8 yds to the ArzSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
3.0%
Daniyel Ngata run for 4 yds to the ArzSt 41Similar
Q4 11:45
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+6
3.0%
Jayden Daniels run for 6 yds to the ArzSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
2.9%
Daniyel Ngata run for no gain to the ArzSt 47Similar
Q4 11:45
2ND & 10
OWN 47
-6
2.9%
Daniyel Ngata run for 8 yds to the OREGONST 45 ARIZONA ST Penalty, Offensive holding (Cade Cote) to the ArzSt 41Similar
Q4 11:45
2ND & 16
OWN 41
0
3.0%
Jayden Daniels pass incomplete to LV Bunkley-SheltonSimilar
Q4 11:45
3RD & 16
OWN 41
+10
3.0%
Daniyel Ngata run for 10 yds to the OrgSt 49Similar
Q4 11:45
4TH & 6
OPP 49
0
3.2%
Michael Turk punt for 49 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q4 7:16
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
3.8%
Chance Nolan pass incomplete to Tyjon Lindsey, broken up by Will ShafferSimilar
Q4 7:16
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+1
3.8%
Jermar Jefferson run for 1 yd to the OrgSt 21Similar
Q4 7:16
3RD & 9
OWN 21
0
3.8%
Chance Nolan pass incomplete to Tyjon Lindsey, broken up by Jordan ClarkSimilar
Q4 7:16
4TH & 9
OWN 21
0
3.7%
Luke Loecher punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Rachaad White at the ArzSt 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 24DOWNS
6 plays · 25 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q4 6:21
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+4
1.7%
Rachaad White run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 49Similar
Q4 6:21
2ND & 6
OPP 49
+14
1.7%
Rachaad White run for 14 yds to the OrgSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:21
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+1
1.7%
Rachaad White run for 1 yd to the OrgSt 34Similar
Q4 6:21
2ND & 9
OPP 34
+6
1.7%
Daniyel Ngata run for 6 yds to the OrgSt 28Similar
Q4 6:21
3RD & 3
OPP 28
-1
1.8%
Daniyel Ngata run for a loss of 1 yard to the OrgSt 29Similar
Q4 6:21
4TH & 4
OPP 29
+1
1.9%
Daniyel Ngata run for 1 yd to the OrgSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 25TD
15 plays · 72 yds · 2:432% → 4%
Q4 2:43
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+7
2.1%
Calvin Tyler Jr. run for 7 yds to the OrgSt 35Similar
Q4 2:43
2ND & 3
OWN 35
+6
2.1%
Calvin Tyler Jr. run for 6 yds to the OrgSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:43
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+10
2.2%
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to Tre'Shaun Harrison for 10 yds to the ArzSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:43
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
2.3%
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to Teagan Quitoriano for 4 yds to the ArzSt 45Similar
Q4 2:43
2ND & 6
OPP 45
+4
2.3%
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to Tre'Shaun Harrison for 4 yds to the ArzSt 41Similar
Q4 2:43
3RD & 2
OPP 41
-5
2.5%
OREGON ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the ArzSt 46Similar
Q4 0:37
3RD & 7
OPP 46
+13
1.8%
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to Tre'Shaun Harrison for 13 yds to the ArzSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:37
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
2.2%
Ben Gulbranson pass incomplete to Calvin Tyler Jr.Similar
Q4 0:37
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+17
2.2%
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to Tyjon Lindsey for 17 yds to the ArzSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:12
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
1.8%
Ben Gulbranson pass incomplete to Tre'Shaun HarrisonSimilar
Q4 0:12
2ND & 10
OPP 16
0
1.8%
Ben Gulbranson pass incomplete to Tyjon LindseySimilar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 10
OPP 16
+16
4.3%
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to Zeriah Beason for 16 yds for a TDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 12:43
Ricky Pearsall run for 29 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed )
-12.4
TD · Q3 10:50
Jayden Daniels run for 53 yds for a TD ( KICK)
-12.1
TD · Q3 4:32
Rachaad White run for 55 yds for a TD ( KICK)
-12
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com