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BALL

Ball State 34 at San José State 13

SJSU
2020 · Offerpad Arizona Bowl · Dec 31, 2020 · Arizona Stadium
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Win probability · SJSU
modelSJSU aheadBALL aheadconfidence bandkey playSJSU scoreBALL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 2:25 · Drew Plitt punt for 35 yds, downed at the SJSt 2
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+55.5+27.80−27.8−55.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 173Home team on offense−52.9Score differential−31.4Pregame prior+0.9Garbage-time factor−10.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−11.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−12.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 5:15: Tye Evans run for 3 yds for a TD (Jacob Lewis KICK) — BALL win probability +5.8 pts (now 44%) (top driver: BALL has the ball).
  2. KEY PLAY · Q2 0:26: Nick Starkel pass complete to Dominick Mazotti for 11 yds to the SJSt 49 for a 1ST down — BALL win probability +12.1 pts (now 91%) (top driver: SJSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 9:42: Drew Plitt pass complete to Yo'Heinz Tyler for 48 yds for a TD (Jacob Lewis KICK) — BALL win probability +4.0 pts (now 96%) (top driver: BALL has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 9:28: Jacob Lewis kickoff for 64 yds , Charlie Bostic III return for 99 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — SJSU win probability +4.1 pts (now 9%) (top driver: BALL has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 0:01: Nick Starkel pass complete to Jermaine Braddock for 8 yds for a TD (Matt Mercurio KICK) — SJSU win probability +4.1 pts (now 7%) (top driver: SJSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
SJSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 8BALL made the numbers' call on 5 of 8
  1. Q1 11:50SJSU 4th & 6 at SJSU 26, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.4%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.4%
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:56SJSU 4th & 1 at SJSU 26, down 13
    Close callPunted · 68.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.5%−0.4
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:56SJSU 4th & 2 at SJSU 35, down 20
    Close callPunted · 58.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.3%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:04BALL 4th & 1 at SJSU 1, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 48.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    47.4%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    45.4%−2.0
    94% to make
    Punt
    40.2%−7.2
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:24SJSU 4th & 3 at BALL 47, down 27
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.0 ptsPunted · 37.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.5%−1.0
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:09BALL 4th & 10 at SJSU 10, up 27
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 66.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.0%−0.5
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    66.5%
    88% to make
    Punt
    62.7%−3.8
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:33BALL 4th & 16 at SJSU 34, up 27
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.1 ptsWent for it · 84.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    84.4%−1.1
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    85.6%
    47% to make
    Punt
    84.0%−1.6
    average punt
  8. Q3 7:25BALL 4th & 9 at BALL 25, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.7%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.8%
    average punt
  9. Q3 3:09BALL 4th & 18 at BALL 31, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.9%−0.2
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.1%
    average punt
  10. Q4 13:46BALL 4th & 2 at BALL 33, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.0%−<0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.0%
    average punt
  11. Q4 12:20SJSU 4th & 2 at BALL 46, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    3.3%−1.3
    23% to make
    Punt
    3.8%−0.7
    average punt
  12. Q4 10:48SJSU 4th & 4 at BALL 13, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 4.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.0%−0.2
    46% to convert
    Field goal
    4.2%
    85% to make
    Punt
    1.5%−2.7
    average punt
  13. Q4 8:49BALL 4th & 1 at BALL 22, up 21
    Close callPunted · 97.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.5%−0.3
    average punt
  14. Q4 6:59SJSU 4th & 2 at BALL 33, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    2.3%−0.2
    49% to make
    Punt
    1.6%−0.9
    average punt
  15. Q4 2:25BALL 4th & 16 at SJSU 37, up 21
    Close callPunted · 99.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.0%−0.1
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    99.1%
    40% to make
    PuntTheir call
    99.1%−0.1
    average punt
  16. Q4 0:55SJSU 4th & 4 at SJSU 8, down 21
    Close callPunted · 0.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.7%
    46% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.5%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
SJSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1BALL made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 12:47BALL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    27.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    27.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 10:00BALL Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    29.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    29.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 5:15BALL Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    39.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 1:04BALL Touchdown, up 26 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 9:42BALL Touchdown, up 33 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 0:01SJSU Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    4.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    4.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
SJSUDrive 1INT TD
7 plays · 20 yds · 1:5871% → 71%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+1
71.2%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Derrick Deese Jr. for 1 yd to the SJSt 27Similar
Q1 14:27
2ND & 9
OWN 27
+1
71.2%
Kairee Robinson run for 1 yd to the SJSt 28Similar
Q1 13:44
3RD & 8
OWN 28
+15
71.0%
Starkel, Nick pass incomplete to Walker, Tre, PENALTY BALLST pass interference (Uzodinma II, Amechi) 15 yards to the SJSU43, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN SJSU.Similar
Q1 13:36
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
71.1%
Nick Starkel pass incomplete to Jermaine BraddockSimilar
Q1 13:31
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+3
71.1%
Kairee Robinson run for 3 yds to the SJSt 46Similar
Q1 12:47
3RD & 7
OWN 46
-53
70.6%
Nick Starkel pass intercepted for a TD Antonio Phillips return for 53 yds for a TD (Jacob Lewis PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:4971% → 70%
Q1 12:39
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+3
70.5%
Tyler Nevens run for 3 yds to the SJSt 25Similar
Q1 12:03
2ND & 7
OWN 25
0
70.3%
Nick Starkel pass incomplete to Dominick MazottiSimilar
Q1 11:56
3RD & 7
OWN 25
+1
70.1%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Kairee Robinson for 1 yd to the SJSt 26Similar
Q1 11:50
4TH & 6
OWN 26
0
70.0%
Elijah Fischer punt for 24 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 3TD
8 plays · 50 yds · 1:4630% → 32%
Q1 11:46
1ST & 10
50
0
70.0%
Drew Plitt pass incomplete to Yo'Heinz TylerSimilar
Q1 11:39
2ND & 10
50
+3
69.9%
Will Jones run for 3 yds to the SJSt 47Similar
Q1 11:16
3RD & 7
OPP 47
+5
69.8%
Plitt, Drew pass incomplete to Littles, Hassan, PENALTY SJSU offside (Manley, Grady) 5 yards to the SJSU42, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 11:10
3RD & 2
OPP 42
+17
69.7%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Yo'Heinz Tyler for 17 yds to the SJSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:01
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-5
69.6%
BALL ST Penalty, False Start (Yo'Heinz Tyler) to the SJSt 30Similar
Q1 10:46
1ST & 15
OPP 30
+5
69.5%
Will Jones run for 5 yds to the SJSt 25Similar
Q1 10:13
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+22
69.3%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Antwan Davis for 22 yds to the SJSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
67.7%
Will Jones run for 3 yds for a TD (Jacob Lewis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 1:5568% → 66%
Q1 9:51
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+2
68.0%
Kairee Robinson run for 2 yds to the SJSt 19Similar
Q1 9:08
2ND & 8
OWN 19
+7
67.6%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Jermaine Braddock for 7 yds to the SJSt 26Similar
Q1 8:34
3RD & 1
OWN 26
0
66.3%
Tyler Nevens run for no gain to the SJSt 26Similar
Q1 7:56
4TH & 1
OWN 26
0
65.9%
Elijah Fischer punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Hassan Littles at the BalSt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 5TD
9 plays · 67 yds · 2:3435% → 44%
Q1 7:49
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+28
65.0%
Donny Marcus run for 28 yds to the SJSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:27
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+3
64.2%
Donny Marcus run for 3 yds to the SJSt 36Similar
Q1 6:57
2ND & 7
OPP 36
+4
64.0%
Jalen McGaughy run for 4 yds to the SJSt 32Similar
Q1 6:39
3RD & 3
OPP 32
+5
63.7%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Donny Marcus for 5 yds to the SJSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:07
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+5
63.0%
Drew Plitt run for 5 yds to the SJSt 22Similar
Q1 5:42
2ND & 5
OPP 22
+8
62.6%
Tye Evans run for 8 yds to the SJSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:25
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+11
62.3%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Antwan Davis for 11 yds to the SJSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
56.5%
Tye Evans run for 3 yds for a TD (Jacob Lewis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · 8 yds · 2:0658% → 55%
Q1 5:02
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+3
58.0%
Isaiah Holiness run for 3 yds to the SJSt 30Similar
Q1 4:28
2ND & 7
OWN 30
+6
57.6%
Nick Nash run for 6 yds to the SJSt 36Similar
Q1 3:54
3RD & 1
OWN 36
-5
57.2%
SAN JOSÉ ST Penalty, False Start (Jesse Chamberlain) to the SJSt 31Similar
Q1 3:29
3RD & 6
OWN 31
+4
56.1%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Isaiah Hamilton for 4 yds to the SJSt 35Similar
Q1 2:56
4TH & 2
OWN 35
0
55.3%
TEAM punt blocked by Nic Jones for a 1ST down blocked by Nic Jones for a 1ST down for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 7TD
6 plays · 35 yds · 1:4747% → 50%
Q1 2:51
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+2
52.6%
Will Jones run for 2 yds to the SJSt 33Similar
Q1 2:34
2ND & 8
OPP 33
+23
51.5%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Yo'Heinz Tyler for 23 yds to the SJSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+7
51.1%
Will Jones run for 7 yds to the SJSt 3Similar
Q1 1:35
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
49.8%
Will Jones run for 2 yds to the SJSt 1Similar
Q1 1:27
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
50.0%
Will Jones run for no gain to the SJSt 1Similar
Q1 1:04
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
49.7%
Drew Plitt run for 1 yd for a TD (Jacob Lewis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 8PUNT
9 plays · 30 yds · 3:2543% → 37%
Q1 0:49
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+12
42.8%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Tre Walker for 12 yds to the SJSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:28
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
42.4%
Nick Starkel pass incomplete to Dominick MazottiSimilar
Q1 0:22
2ND & 10
OWN 35
-3
41.7%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Kairee Robinson for a loss of 3 yards to the SJSt 32Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 13
OWN 32
+14
40.8%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Kairee Robinson for 14 yds to the SJSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:16
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
40.9%
Kairee Robinson run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 13:39
2ND & 6
50
+5
39.8%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Billy Bob Humphreys for 5 yds to the BalSt 45Similar
Q2 13:04
3RD & 1
OPP 45
-2
39.5%
Tyler Nevens run for a loss of 2 yards to the BalSt 47Similar
Q2 12:24
4TH & 3
OPP 47
0
37.4%
Elijah Fischer punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Hassan Littles at the BalSt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 9MISSED FG
11 plays · 73 yds · 2:1060% → 60%
Q2 12:19
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+30
40.4%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Yo'Heinz Tyler for 15 yds to the BalSt 32 for a 1ST down SAN JOSÉ ST Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Kenyon Reed) to the BalSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:47
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+28
37.5%
Donny Marcus run for 28 yds to the SJSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:39
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
35.6%
Drew Plitt pass incomplete to Cody RudySimilar
Q2 11:30
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+16
35.9%
Drew Plitt run for 16 yds to the SJSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
34.9%
Drew Plitt pass incomplete to Antwan DavisSimilar
Q2 11:11
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+4
35.9%
Donny Marcus run for 4 yds to the SJSt 5Similar
Q2 10:44
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
-5
35.5%
BALL ST Penalty, False Start (Curtis Blackwell) to the SJSt 10Similar
Q2 10:14
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
0
35.4%
Drew Plitt pass incomplete to Antwan DavisSimilar
Q2 10:09
4TH & GOAL
OPP 10
+28
40.3%
Jacob Lewis 28 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 10INT
10 plays · 71 yds · 4:2730% → 23%
Q2 10:01
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+12
29.6%
Kairee Robinson run for 12 yds to the SJSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:32
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-2
28.5%
Kairee Robinson run for a loss of 2 yards to the SJSt 30Similar
Q2 8:47
2ND & 12
OWN 30
+38
25.8%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Dominick Mazotti for 38 yds to the BalSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:19
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+4
28.6%
Nick Nash run for 4 yds to the BalSt 28Similar
Q2 7:52
2ND & 6
OPP 28
-1
26.2%
Nick Nash run for a loss of 1 yard to the BalSt 29Similar
Q2 7:08
3RD & 7
OPP 29
0
23.9%
Nick Nash pass incomplete to Isaiah HamiltonSimilar
Q2 7:01
4TH & 7
OPP 29
+15
23.6%
Nash, Nick pass incomplete to Hamilton, Isaiah, PENALTY BALLST pass interference (Jones, Nic) 15 yards to the BALLST14, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN SJSU.Similar
Q2 6:55
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+10
26.1%
Nick Nash pass complete to Isaiah Hamilton for 10 yds to the BalSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-5
24.0%
Kairee Robinson run for a loss of 5 yards to the BalSt 9 Kairee Robinson fumbled, recovered by SJSt Kairee RobinsonSimilar
Q2 5:34
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
0
23.2%
Nick Nash pass intercepted, touchback. Bryce Cosby return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 11FUMBLE
12 plays · 71 yds · 4:5671% → 79%
Q2 5:29
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
29.4%
Will Jones run for 2 yds to the BalSt 22Similar
Q2 5:02
2ND & 8
OWN 22
0
29.9%
Will Jones run for no gain to the BalSt 22Similar
Q2 4:29
3RD & 8
OWN 22
+9
29.6%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Hassan Littles for 9 yds to the BalSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:12
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+15
29.2%
Plitt, Drew pass incomplete to McGaughy, Jalen, PENALTY SJSU pass interference (Reed, Kenyon) 15 yards to the BALLST46, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN BALLST.Similar
Q2 4:07
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
28.1%
Will Jones run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 3:12
2ND & 6
50
+7
26.5%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Cody Rudy for 7 yds to the SJSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:44
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+15
25.6%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Jalen McGaughy for 15 yds to the SJSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:19
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+6
23.7%
Tye Evans run for 6 yds to the SJSt 22Similar
Q2 2:01
2ND & 4
OPP 22
-4
23.8%
Donny Marcus run for a loss of 4 yards to the SJSt 26Similar
Q2 1:22
3RD & 8
OPP 26
-8
20.1%
Drew Plitt sacked by Lando Grey for a loss of 8 yards to the SJSt 34Similar
Q2 0:33
4TH & 16
OPP 34
+29
21.3%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Tye Evans for 25 yds Tye Evans fumbled, forced by Jay Lenard, recovered by SJSt Nehemiah Shelton , return for 29 yds to the SJSt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 12DOWNS
6 plays · 30 yds · 0:269% → 8%
Q2 0:26
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+11
9.2%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Dominick Mazotti for 11 yds to the SJSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
9.5%
Nick Starkel pass incomplete to Dominick MazottiSimilar
Q2 0:12
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+13
8.6%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Kairee Robinson for 13 yds to the BalSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:08
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
9.5%
Nick Starkel pass incomplete to Dominick MazottiSimilar
Q2 0:02
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+6
8.4%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Tre Walker for 6 yds to the BalSt 32Similar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 4
OPP 32
+49
7.9%
Matt Mercurio 49 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 13FUMBLE
13 plays · 61 yds · 3:4582% → 91%
Q3 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+3
18.3%
Will Jones run for 3 yds to the BalSt 32Similar
Q3 14:23
2ND & 7
OWN 32
+15
17.9%
Plitt, Drew rush for loss of 2 yards to the BALLST30, PENALTY SJSU face mask (Fehoko, Viliami) 15 yards to the BALLST47, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN BALLST.Similar
Q3 14:09
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
16.8%
Drew Plitt pass incomplete to Yo'Heinz TylerSimilar
Q3 13:46
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+25
14.1%
Will Jones run for 25 yds to the SJSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:36
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+1
13.4%
Will Jones run for 1 yd to the SJSt 27Similar
Q3 13:08
2ND & 9
OPP 27
+2
13.2%
Will Jones run for 2 yds to the SJSt 25Similar
Q3 12:29
3RD & 7
OPP 25
-5
10.5%
BALL ST Penalty, Substitution Infraction (-5 Yards) to the SJSt 30Similar
Q3 12:23
3RD & 12
OPP 30
+5
10.5%
SAN JOSÉ ST Penalty, Defensive Offside (Viliami Fehoko) to the SJSt 25Similar
Q3 12:03
3RD & 7
OPP 25
+13
9.9%
Drew Plitt run for 13 yds to the SJSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:30
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
9.0%
Drew Plitt pass incomplete to Yo'Heinz TylerSimilar
Q3 11:24
2ND & 10
OPP 12
+4
8.9%
Tye Evans run for 4 yds to the SJSt 8Similar
Q3 11:02
3RD & 6
OPP 8
-2
9.0%
Tye Evans run for a loss of 2 yards to the SJSt 10 Tye Evans fumbled, recovered by SJSt E.J. AneSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 14INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0010% → 10%
Q3 10:54
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
10.4%
Nick Starkel pass intercepted Brett Anderson II return for no gain to the SJSt 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 15TD
3 plays · 49 yds · 1:0491% → 96%
Q3 10:46
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+1
8.7%
Donny Marcus run for 1 yd to the SJSt 48Similar
Q3 10:19
2ND & 9
OPP 48
0
8.4%
Donny Marcus run for no gain to the SJSt 48Similar
Q3 9:42
3RD & 9
OPP 48
+48
4.5%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Yo'Heinz Tyler for 48 yds for a TD (Jacob Lewis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:5292% → 93%
Q3 9:17
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+2
8.1%
Will Jones run for 2 yds to the BalSt 26Similar
Q3 8:46
2ND & 8
OWN 26
-8
6.8%
Drew Plitt sacked by Viliami Fehoko for a loss of 8 yards to the BalSt 18Similar
Q3 8:06
3RD & 16
OWN 18
+7
6.4%
Drew Plitt run for 7 yds to the BalSt 25Similar
Q3 7:25
4TH & 9
OWN 25
0
6.6%
Nathan Snyder punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Kenyon Reed at the SJSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 18INT
6 plays · 48 yds · 2:279% → 8%
Q3 7:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
8.7%
Tyler Nevens run for 10 yds to the SJSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:51
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
8.4%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Tre Walker for 9 yds to the SJSt 44Similar
Q3 6:03
2ND & 1
OWN 44
+21
8.1%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Tre Walker for 21 yds to the BalSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:34
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+8
9.0%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Andre Crump for 8 yds to the BalSt 27Similar
Q3 4:59
2ND & 2
OPP 27
0
7.5%
Nick Starkel pass incomplete to Dominick MazottiSimilar
Q3 4:51
3RD & 2
OPP 27
-10
7.5%
Nick Starkel pass intercepted Jimmy Daw return for 10 yds to the BalSt 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · -8 yds · 1:3396% → 95%
Q3 4:42
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-7
3.9%
Drew Plitt sacked by E.J. Ane for a loss of 7 yards to the BalSt 32Similar
Q3 4:12
2ND & 17
OWN 32
+3
3.8%
Will Jones run for 3 yds to the BalSt 35Similar
Q3 3:54
3RD & 14
OWN 35
-4
3.8%
Drew Plitt sacked by Alii Matau for a loss of 4 yards to the BalSt 31Similar
Q3 3:09
4TH & 18
OWN 31
+5
4.8%
Nathan Snyder punt for 41 yds , Kenyon Reed returns for 5 yds to the SJSt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 20TD
8 plays · 67 yds · 2:593% → 7%
Q3 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+14
3.4%
Tyler Nevens run for 14 yds to the SJSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:17
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+6
3.3%
Tyler Nevens run for 6 yds to the BalSt 47Similar
Q3 1:59
2ND & 4
OPP 47
0
3.1%
Nick Starkel pass incomplete to Tre WalkerSimilar
Q3 1:42
3RD & 4
OPP 40
-8
3.0%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Tre Walker for 7 yds to the SJSt 40 SAN JOSÉ ST Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-15 Yards) to the SJSt 45Similar
Q3 1:11
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+25
2.7%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Isaiah Hamilton for 25 yds to the BalSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:01
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+21
3.0%
Kairee Robinson run for 12 yds to the BalSt 18 for a 1ST down BALL ST Penalty, Personal Foul (9 Yards) to the BalSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+1
3.3%
Kairee Robinson run for 1 yd to the BalSt 8Similar
Q3 0:01
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
7.4%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Jermaine Braddock for 8 yds for a TD (Matt Mercurio KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:1496% → 96%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-4
4.0%
Drew Plitt run for a loss of 4 yards to the BalSt 21Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+12
4.0%
Will Jones run for 12 yds to the BalSt 33Similar
Q4 14:36
3RD & 2
OWN 33
0
4.0%
Will Jones run for no gain to the BalSt 33Similar
Q4 13:46
4TH & 2
OWN 33
+21
3.9%
Nathan Snyder punt for 42 yds , Kenyon Reed returns for 21 yds to the SJSt 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 22DOWNS
11 plays · 41 yds · 2:445% → 4%
Q4 13:32
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-8
5.0%
Nick Starkel sacked by Jack Sape and Justen Ramsey for a loss of 8 yards to the SJSt 38Similar
Q4 13:01
2ND & 18
OWN 38
+11
4.1%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Jermaine Braddock for 11 yds to the SJSt 49Similar
Q4 12:31
3RD & 7
OWN 49
+5
4.3%
Starkel, Nick pass incomplete to Walker, Tre, PENALTY BALLST offside 5 yards to the BALLST46, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:26
3RD & 2
OPP 46
0
4.6%
Nick Starkel pass incomplete to Tre WalkerSimilar
Q4 12:20
4TH & 2
OPP 46
+14
4.3%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Kairee Robinson for 14 yds to the BalSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:52
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+13
4.6%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Jermaine Braddock for 13 yds to the BalSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:23
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
4.6%
Nick Starkel pass incomplete to Dominick MazottiSimilar
Q4 11:19
2ND & 10
OPP 19
0
4.5%
Nick Starkel pass incomplete to Isaiah HolinessSimilar
Q4 11:14
3RD & 10
OPP 19
+6
4.2%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Tre Walker for 6 yds to the BalSt 13Similar
Q4 10:48
4TH & 4
OPP 13
0
3.6%
Nick Starkel pass incomplete to Tre WalkerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:5398% → 98%
Q4 10:42
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+2
2.4%
Donny Marcus run for 2 yds to the BalSt 15Similar
Q4 10:10
2ND & 8
OWN 15
+6
2.2%
Donny Marcus run for 6 yds to the BalSt 21Similar
Q4 9:33
3RD & 2
OWN 21
+1
2.1%
Donny Marcus run for 1 yd to the BalSt 22Similar
Q4 8:49
4TH & 1
OWN 22
-2
1.9%
Nathan Snyder punt for 46 yds , Kenyon Reed returns for a loss of 2 yards to the SJSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 24DOWNS
6 plays · 37 yds · 1:433% → 2%
Q4 8:42
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+9
2.6%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Kairee Robinson for 9 yds to the SJSt 39Similar
Q4 8:12
2ND & 1
OWN 39
+20
2.7%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Tre Walker for 20 yds to the BalSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:41
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+8
2.7%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Kairee Robinson for 8 yds to the BalSt 33Similar
Q4 7:10
2ND & 2
OPP 33
0
2.5%
Nick Starkel pass incomplete to Jermaine BraddockSimilar
Q4 7:06
3RD & 2
OPP 33
0
2.4%
Nick Starkel pass incomplete to Jermaine BraddockSimilar
Q4 6:59
4TH & 2
OPP 33
0
2.2%
Nick Starkel pass incomplete to Tre WalkerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 25PUNT
11 plays · 30 yds · 4:2799% → 100%
Q4 6:52
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+5
1.4%
Will Jones run for 5 yds to the BalSt 38Similar
Q4 6:11
2ND & 5
OWN 38
+1
1.2%
Will Jones run for 1 yd to the BalSt 39Similar
Q4 5:27
3RD & 4
OWN 39
+20
1.0%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Antwan Davis for 20 yds to the SJSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:55
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+5
0.9%
Will Jones run for 5 yds to the SJSt 36Similar
Q4 4:08
2ND & 5
OPP 36
+5
0.8%
SAN JOSÉ ST Penalty, Defensive Offside (Soane Toia) to the SJSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:47
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+2
0.8%
Will Jones run for 2 yds to the SJSt 29Similar
Q4 3:07
2ND & 8
OPP 29
-3
0.6%
Tye Evans run for a loss of 3 yards to the SJSt 32Similar
Q4 2:32
3RD & 11
OPP 32
0
0.6%
Drew Plitt pass incomplete to Hassan LittlesSimilar
Q4 2:32
4TH & 11
OPP 32
-5
0.5%
BALL ST Penalty, False Start (Jaylen Turner) to the SJSt 37Similar
Q4 2:25
4TH & 16
OPP 37
0
0.5%
Drew Plitt punt for 35 yds, downed at the SJSt 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 26PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:231% → 1%
Q4 2:18
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+6
0.9%
Tyler Nevens run for 6 yds to the SJSt 8Similar
Q4 1:45
2ND & 4
OWN 8
0
0.8%
Nick Nash run for no gain to the SJSt 8Similar
Q4 1:03
3RD & 4
OWN 8
0
0.7%
Nick Nash pass incomplete to Isaiah HamiltonSimilar
Q4 0:55
4TH & 4
OWN 8
0
0.6%
Elijah Fischer punt for 50 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BalSt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 27Uncategorized
2 plays · -4 yds · 0:29100% → 100%
Q4 0:53
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-2
0.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the BalSt 40Similar
Q4 0:24
2ND & 12
OWN 40
-2
0.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the BalSt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
KEY PLAY · Q2 0:26
Nick Starkel pass complete to Dominick Mazotti for 11 yds to the SJSt 49 for a 1ST down
-12.1
TD · Q1 5:15
Tye Evans run for 3 yds for a TD (Jacob Lewis KICK)
-5.8
TD · Q3 9:28
Jacob Lewis kickoff for 64 yds , Charlie Bostic III return for 99 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed )
+4.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com