Try the model
MIZ

Missouri 32 at Mississippi State 51

MSST
2020 · Week 16 · Dec 19, 2020 · Davis Wade Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · MSST
modelMSST aheadMIZ aheadconfidence bandkey playMSST scoreMIZ score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGFGTDFGTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 2:33 · Team run for a loss of 5 yards to the Misso 30
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout marginScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+35.5+17.80−17.8−35.5Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 3:33: Will Rogers pass complete to Jaden Walley for 7 yds for a TD ( KICK) — MSST win probability +5.3 pts (now 57%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 2:49: Will Rogers pass complete to Osirus Mitchell for 7 yds for a TD ( KICK) — MSST win probability +11.0 pts (now 77%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 6:18: Connor Bazelak pass complete to Keke Chism for 2 yds for a TD ( pass to Keke Chism for Two-Point Conversion) — MIZ win probability +12.3 pts (now 19%) (top driver: MIZ has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 13:26: Will Rogers pass complete to Brad Cumbest for 10 yds for a TD ( KICK) — MSST win probability +5.4 pts (now 98%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 8:39: Larry Rountree III run for 6 yds for a TD ( KICK) — MIZ win probability +4.2 pts (now 5%) (top driver: MIZ has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MSST made the numbers' call on 1 of 2MIZ made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 8:52MSST 4th & 10 at MSST 43, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.1%−0.3
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.3%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:52MIZ 4th & 12 at MIZ 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.6%−0.4
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.0%
    average punt
  3. Q2 15:00MIZ 4th & 2 at MSST 38, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 45.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    45.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    44.1%−1.0
    38% to make
    Punt
    44.0%−1.1
    average punt
  4. Q3 10:07MIZ 4th & 7 at MIZ 28, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.8%−0.7
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.5%
    average punt
  5. Q4 13:26MIZ 4th & 7 at MIZ 38, down 23
    Close callWent for it · 1.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.8%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.9%
    average punt
  6. Q4 11:13MIZ 4th & 2 at MSST 38, down 26
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    0.2%−0.1
    38% to make
    Punt
    0.1%−0.2
    average punt
  7. Q4 6:40MSST 4th & 2 at MIZ 42, up 19
    Close callPunted · 98.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    97.4%−0.8
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    97.6%−0.7
    average punt
  8. Q4 5:28MIZ 4th & 3 at MIZ 32, down 26
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MSST made the numbers' call on 4 of 4MIZ made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 10:07MIZ Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    52.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    52.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 3:33MSST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    53.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    53.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 2:49MSST Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 6:18MIZ Touchdown, down 18 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    9.7%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    9.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 13:26MSST Touchdown, up 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 8:39MIZ Touchdown, down 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    2.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    1.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 5:28MSST Touchdown, up 25 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 2:34MIZ Touchdown, down 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    1.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    1.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MIZDrive 1TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 4:5350% → 52%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-8
49.8%
Larry Rountree III run for a loss of 8 yards to the Misso 17Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 18
OWN 17
+18
49.8%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Daniel Parker Jr. for 3 yds to the Misso 20 for a 1ST down MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, personal foul (Erroll Thompson) to the Misso 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
49.8%
Larry Rountree III run for 4 yds to the Misso 39Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+16
49.8%
Tauskie Dove pass complete to Daniel Parker Jr. for 16 yds to the MisSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+12
49.8%
Larry Rountree III run for 12 yds to the MisSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+3
49.8%
Larry Rountree III run for 3 yds to the MisSt 30Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 30
+2
49.8%
Larry Rountree III run for 2 yds to the MisSt 28Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 28
+10
49.8%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Damon Hazelton for 10 yds to the MisSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
49.8%
Connor Bazelak pass incomplete to Daniel Parker Jr.Similar
Q1 10:07
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+18
48.2%
Larry Rountree III run for 18 yds for a TD ( KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 2PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 1:1549% → 51%
Q1 10:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
48.9%
Will Rogers pass incomplete, broken up by Martez ManuelSimilar
Q1 10:07
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+18
48.8%
Will Rogers run for 18 yds to the MisSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:07
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
49.2%
Will Rogers pass incomplete, broken up by Nick BoltonSimilar
Q1 10:07
2ND & 10
OWN 43
0
49.1%
Will Rogers pass incomplete, broken up by Joshuah BledsoeSimilar
Q1 10:07
3RD & 10
OWN 43
0
48.9%
Will Rogers pass incomplete, broken up by Joshuah BledsoeSimilar
Q1 8:52
4TH & 10
OWN 43
0
50.5%
Tucker Day punt for 46 yds , returns for no gain for a TD Cade Musser fumbled, recovered by MisSt Paul Blackwell for a TD ( KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 0:0049% → 49%
Q1 8:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
50.7%
Team run for a loss of 5 yards to the Misso 9 Team fumbled, recovered by Misso Larry Rountree IIISimilar
Q1 8:52
2ND & 26
OWN 9
+14
50.8%
Larry Rountree III run for 14 yds to the Misso 23Similar
Q1 8:52
3RD & 12
OWN 23
0
51.0%
Connor Bazelak pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:52
4TH & 12
OWN 23
0
51.2%
Grant McKinniss punt for 39 yds , returns for no gain to the MisSt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 4TD
8 plays · 62 yds · 3:3951% → 57%
Q1 7:12
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
51.3%
Jo'Quavious Marks run for 5 yds to the MisSt 43Similar
Q1 7:12
2ND & 5
OWN 0
0
50.9%
Will Rogers pass complete to Cameron Gardner for 4 yards to the MS47 (Ennis Rakestraw), PENALTY MS holding off-setting, PENALTY MIZ illegal use of hands off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:12
2ND & 5
OWN 43
+12
51.8%
Will Rogers pass complete to Osirus Mitchell for 12 yds to the Misso 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:12
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+7
51.9%
Dillon Johnson run for 7 yds to the Misso 38Similar
Q1 7:12
2ND & 3
OPP 38
+32
51.9%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jaden Walley for 32 yds to the Misso 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
52.1%
Dillon Johnson run for 4 yds to the Misso 2Similar
Q1 7:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
-5
52.1%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Misso 7Similar
Q1 3:33
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
57.4%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jaden Walley for 7 yds for a TD ( KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 5DOWNS
9 plays · 37 yds · 3:3344% → 43%
Q1 3:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
55.9%
Tyler Badie run for 3 yds to the Misso 28 for a 1ST down MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Aaron Odom) to the Misso 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:33
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-8
55.3%
Connor Bazelak sacked by Tyrus Wheat for a loss of 8 yards to the Misso 35Similar
Q1 3:33
2ND & 18
OWN 35
+7
56.0%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Tyler Badie for 7 yds to the Misso 42Similar
Q1 3:33
3RD & 11
OWN 42
+12
56.0%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Damon Hazelton for 12 yds to the MisSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:33
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+3
54.7%
Larry Rountree III run for 3 yds to the MisSt 43Similar
Q1 3:33
2ND & 7
OPP 43
+5
54.7%
Larry Rountree III run for 5 yds to the MisSt 38Similar
Q1 3:33
3RD & 2
OPP 38
0
54.7%
Larry Rountree III run for no gain to the MisSt 38Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 2
OPP 38
0
56.6%
Connor Bazelak pass incomplete to Larry Rountree III, broken up by Tyrus WheatSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 6FG
6 plays · 41 yds · 0:0059% → 60%
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+14
58.6%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jaden Walley for 14 yds to the Misso 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+11
59.1%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'Quavious Marks for 11 yds to the Misso 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+10
59.2%
Will Rogers pass complete to Geor'quarius Spivey for 10 yds to the Misso 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
59.3%
Will Rogers pass incomplete, broken up by Martez ManuelSimilar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+6
59.2%
Jo'Quavious Marks run for 6 yds to the Misso 21Similar
Q2 14:55
3RD & 4
OPP 21
0
59.6%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Geor'quarius Spivey, broken up by Jalani WilliamsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 7FG
14 plays · 59 yds · 1:3039% → 40%
Q2 12:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
60.7%
Connor Bazelak pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:14
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+16
60.8%
Larry Rountree III run for 16 yds to the Misso 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:14
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
59.8%
Larry Rountree III run for 5 yds to the Misso 46Similar
Q2 12:14
2ND & 5
OWN 46
+2
59.4%
Larry Rountree III run for 2 yds to the Misso 48Similar
Q2 10:44
3RD & 3
OWN 48
+10
61.4%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Barrett Banister for 10 yds to the MisSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:44
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+15
61.1%
Connor Bazelak pass incomplete to D'ionte Smith, PENALTY MS pass interference (Martin Emerson) 15 yards to the MS27, 1ST DOWN MIZ, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:44
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+5
60.2%
Larry Rountree III run for 5 yds to the MisSt 22Similar
Q2 10:44
2ND & 5
OPP 22
+9
60.2%
Larry Rountree III run for 9 yds to the MisSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:44
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-2
60.2%
Larry Rountree III run for a loss of 2 yards to the MisSt 15Similar
Q2 10:44
2ND & 12
OPP 15
0
60.4%
Connor Bazelak run for no gain to the MisSt 20 Connor Bazelak fumbled, recovered by MissoSimilar
Q2 10:44
3RD & 17
OPP 20
-5
62.0%
MISSOURI Penalty, substitution infraction (-5 Yards) to the MisSt 25Similar
Q2 10:44
3RD & 22
OPP 25
+9
59.8%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Tyler Badie for 9 yds to the MisSt 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 8TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 3:5864% → 77%
Q2 6:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
64.1%
Dillon Johnson run for 6 yds to the MisSt 31Similar
Q2 6:47
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
64.8%
Will Rogers run for no gain to the MisSt 31Similar
Q2 6:47
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+4
63.7%
Will Rogers pass complete to Austin Williams for 4 yds to the MisSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:47
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+37
64.3%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jaden Walley for 37 yds to the Misso 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:47
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+14
66.3%
Will Rogers pass complete to Osirus Mitchell for 14 yds to the Misso 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:47
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+7
66.3%
Will Rogers pass complete to Lideatrick Griffin for 7 yds to the Misso 7Similar
Q2 2:49
2ND & 3
OPP 7
+7
77.3%
Will Rogers pass complete to Osirus Mitchell for 7 yds for a TD ( KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 9INT
10 plays · 38 yds · 0:0025% → 27%
Q2 2:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
74.8%
Larry Rountree III run for 2 yds to the Misso 27Similar
Q2 2:49
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+11
74.7%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Keke Chism for 11 yds to the Misso 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:49
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+11
74.4%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Keke Chism for 11 yds to the Misso 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:49
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
73.8%
Connor Bazelak pass incomplete to Damon HazeltonSimilar
Q2 2:49
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+11
74.3%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Damon Hazelton for 11 yds to the MisSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:49
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-10
73.3%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Keke Chism for 10 yards to the MS30 (Aaron Brule), PENALTY MIZ holding (Zeke Powell) 10 yards to the 50 yardline, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:49
1ST & 20
50
+13
74.7%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Keke Chism for 13 yds to the MisSt 37Similar
Q2 2:49
2ND & 7
OPP 37
0
73.3%
Connor Bazelak pass incomplete to Tauskie DoveSimilar
Q2 2:49
3RD & 7
OPP 37
-4
73.4%
Connor Bazelak pass intercepted return for 4 yds to the MisSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 10FG
8 plays · 43 yds · 0:2479% → 78%
Q2 0:46
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
78.6%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Jaden Walley, broken up by Jalani WilliamsSimilar
Q2 0:46
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+19
78.5%
Will Rogers pass complete to Austin Williams for 19 yds to the Misso 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:46
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+24
79.5%
Will Rogers pass complete to Malik Heath for 24 yds to the Misso 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:22
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
78.6%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Geor'quarius SpiveySimilar
Q2 0:22
2ND & 10
OPP 25
0
78.5%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Malik HeathSimilar
Q2 0:22
3RD & 10
OPP 25
0
77.7%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Geor'quarius SpiveySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 11TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 4:5391% → 94%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
90.7%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to L. Griffin, PENALTY MIZ holding (Ennis Rakestraw) 10 yards to the MS35, 1ST DOWN MS, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
90.9%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'Quavious Marks for 1 yd to the MisSt 36Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+5
90.9%
Jo'Quavious Marks run for 5 yds to the MisSt 41Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 41
+12
90.9%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'Quavious Marks for 12 yds to the Misso 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+5
91.2%
Dillon Johnson run for 5 yds to the Misso 42Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 42
+15
91.2%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Osirus Mitchell, PENALTY MIZ pass interference (Chris Mills) 15 yards to the MIZ27, 1ST DOWN MS, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+3
91.3%
Will Rogers pass complete to Osirus Mitchell for 3 yds to the Misso 24Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 24
+16
91.3%
Will Rogers pass complete to Lideatrick Griffin for 6 yds to the Misso 18 for a 1ST down MISSOURI Penalty, personal foul (Jaylon Carlies) to the Misso 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+7
91.3%
Jo'Quavious Marks run for 7 yds to the Misso 1Similar
Q3 10:07
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
94.0%
Jo'Quavious Marks run for 1 yd for a TD ( KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q3 10:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
93.3%
Connor Bazelak pass incomplete to Tauskie Dove, broken up by Emmanuel ForbesSimilar
Q3 10:07
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
93.3%
Larry Rountree III run for 3 yds to the Misso 28Similar
Q3 10:07
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
93.3%
Connor Bazelak pass incomplete to Tauskie DoveSimilar
Q3 10:07
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
93.4%
Grant McKinniss punt for 57 yds, downed at the MisSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 13FUMBLE
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
Q3 9:04
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+3
93.7%
Dillon Johnson run for 3 yds to the MisSt 18Similar
Q3 9:04
2ND & 7
OWN 18
-5
93.8%
Will Rogers sacked by Isaiah McGuire for a loss of 5 yards to the MisSt 14 Will Rogers fumbled, recovered by Misso Kobie Whiteside , return for 0 yards MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Defensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 14TD
5 plays · 14 yds · 2:017% → 19%
Q3 8:19
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+4
93.1%
Larry Rountree III run for 4 yds to the MisSt 10Similar
Q3 8:19
2ND & 6
OPP 10
+3
93.1%
Larry Rountree III run for 3 yds to the MisSt 7Similar
Q3 8:19
3RD & 3
OPP 7
+2
93.6%
Larry Rountree III run for 2 yds to the MisSt 5Similar
Q3 8:19
4TH & 1
OPP 5
+3
93.6%
Connor Bazelak rush for 1 yard to the MS4 (Collin Duncan;Londyn Craft), PENALTY MS offside defense (Collin Duncan) 3 yards to the MS2, 1ST DOWN MIZ, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
81.4%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Keke Chism for 2 yds for a TD ( pass to Keke Chism for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 15INT
8 plays · 62 yds · 0:0089% → 90%
Q3 6:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
89.0%
Will Rogers sacked by Isaiah McGuire for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 24Similar
Q3 6:18
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+8
88.9%
Will Rogers pass complete to Osirus Mitchell for 8 yds to the MisSt 32Similar
Q3 6:18
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+39
89.0%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jaden Walley for 39 yds to the Misso 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:18
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+7
89.8%
Dillon Johnson run for 7 yds to the Misso 22Similar
Q3 6:18
2ND & 3
OPP 22
+9
89.8%
Dillon Johnson run for 9 yds to the Misso 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:18
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
89.8%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Malik HeathSimilar
Q3 6:18
2ND & 10
OPP 13
0
89.8%
Will Rogers pass intercepted, touchback. return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 16INT
3 plays · 18 yds · 0:0011% → 12%
Q3 3:02
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
88.7%
Larry Rountree III run for 6 yds to the Misso 26Similar
Q3 3:02
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+12
88.0%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Barrett Banister for 12 yds to the Misso 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:02
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
87.7%
Connor Bazelak pass intercepted return for no gain to the MisSt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 17TD
7 plays · 66 yds · 3:2692% → 98%
Q3 1:52
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+13
91.5%
Jo'Quavious Marks run for 13 yds to the MisSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:52
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
92.0%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Lideatrick GriffinSimilar
Q3 1:52
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+18
91.9%
Will Rogers pass complete to Austin Williams for 18 yds to the Misso 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:52
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+5
92.1%
Jo'Quavious Marks run for 5 yds to the Misso 30Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 30
+16
93.0%
Jo'Quavious Marks run for 16 yds to the Misso 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+4
93.0%
Jo'Quavious Marks run for 4 yds to the Misso 10Similar
Q4 13:26
2ND & 6
OPP 10
+10
98.4%
Will Rogers pass complete to Brad Cumbest for 10 yds for a TD ( KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 18DOWNS
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q4 13:26
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
98.1%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Tyler Badie for 3 yds to the Misso 38Similar
Q4 13:26
2ND & 7
OWN 38
0
98.1%
Connor Bazelak pass incomplete to Tauskie Dove, broken up by Martin EmersonSimilar
Q4 13:26
3RD & 7
OWN 38
0
98.1%
Connor Bazelak pass incomplete to Barrett Banister, broken up by Collin DuncanSimilar
Q4 13:26
4TH & 7
OWN 38
0
98.2%
Connor Bazelak pass incomplete to Keke ChismSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 19FG
4 plays · 21 yds · 0:0099% → 100%
Q4 12:37
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+15
98.5%
Will Rogers pass complete to L. Witherspoon for 1 yard to the MIZ37 (Ennis Rakestraw), PENALTY MIZ face mask (Markell Utsey) 15 yards to the MIZ23, 1ST DOWN MS, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:37
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+6
98.6%
Dillon Johnson run for 6 yds to the Misso 17Similar
Q4 12:37
2ND & 4
OPP 17
0
98.6%
Will Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:37
3RD & 4
OPP 17
0
99.5%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Austin Williams, broken up by Shawn RobinsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 20TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:340% → 5%
Q4 11:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+29
99.7%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Tauskie Dove for 29 yds to the MisSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:13
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+6
99.7%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Tauskie Dove for 6 yds to the MisSt 40Similar
Q4 11:13
2ND & 4
OPP 40
+2
99.7%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Tauskie Dove for 2 yds to the MisSt 38Similar
Q4 11:13
3RD & 2
OPP 38
0
99.7%
Connor Bazelak pass incomplete to Damon Hazelton, broken up by Emmanuel ForbesSimilar
Q4 11:13
4TH & 2
OPP 38
+11
99.7%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Barrett Banister for 11 yds to the MisSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:13
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+21
99.6%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Keke Chism for 21 yds to the MisSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
95.5%
Larry Rountree III run for 6 yds for a TD ( KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 21PUNT
6 plays · 8 yds · 1:5898% → 98%
Q4 8:38
1ST & 10
50
+5
98.0%
Jo'Quavious Marks run for 5 yds to the Misso 45Similar
Q4 8:38
2ND & 5
OPP 45
+4
98.0%
Jo'Quavious Marks run for 4 yds to the Misso 41Similar
Q4 8:38
3RD & 1
OPP 41
-1
97.9%
Jo'Quavious Marks run for a loss of 1 yard to the Misso 42Similar
Q4 6:40
4TH & 2
OPP 42
0
98.0%
Reed Bowman punt for 38 yds, downed at the Misso 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 22INT TD
3 plays · 11 yds · 1:003% → 0%
Q4 6:28
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+6
96.8%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Keke Chism for 6 yds to the Misso 10Similar
Q4 6:28
2ND & 4
OWN 10
+5
96.7%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Tauskie Dove for 5 yds to the Misso 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:28
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-29
99.8%
Connor Bazelak pass intercepted for a TD return for 29 yds for a TD ( KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 5:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.8%
Connor Bazelak pass incomplete to Keke Chism, broken up by Jay JimisonSimilar
Q4 5:28
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+9
99.8%
Larry Rountree III run for 9 yds to the Misso 34Similar
Q4 5:28
3RD & 1
OWN 34
-2
99.8%
Larry Rountree III run for a loss of 2 yards to the Misso 32Similar
Q4 5:28
4TH & 3
OWN 32
+22
99.8%
Grant McKinniss punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Austin Williams at the MS State 30 MISSOURI Penalty, kick catching interference (Jake Hoffman) to the MisSt 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 24INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 3:58
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
99.8%
K.J. Costello pass incomplete to Geor'quarius SpiveySimilar
Q4 3:58
2ND & 10
OWN 46
0
99.8%
K.J. Costello pass intercepted return for no gain to the MisSt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 25TD
5 plays · 42 yds · 1:090% → 2%
Q4 3:43
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+6
99.8%
Elijah Young run for 6 yds to the MisSt 36Similar
Q4 3:43
2ND & 4
OPP 36
+7
99.8%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Niko Hea for 7 yds to the MisSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:43
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+5
99.8%
Elijah Young rush for 3 yards to the MS26 (Jevon Banks;Sherman Timbs), PENALTY MS substitution infraction 5 yards to the MS24, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:34
1ST & 5
OPP 24
+24
97.2%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Niko Hea for 24 yds for a TD ( KICK)Similar
Q4 2:34
1ST & GOAL
50
-10
97.7%
Sean Koetting kickoff 15 yards to the MS35, on-side kick, recovered by MIZ Keke Chism on MS35, PENALTY MIZ illegal batting (Keke Chism) 10 yards to the MIZ40, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 26END OF GAME
5 plays · 21 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 2:33
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+20
99.0%
Lee Witherspoon run for 20 yds to the Misso 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:33
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+3
99.0%
Lee Witherspoon run for 3 yds to the Misso 28Similar
Q4 2:33
2ND & 7
OPP 28
+3
99.0%
Lee Witherspoon run for 3 yds to the Misso 25Similar
Q4 2:33
3RD & 4
OPP 25
-5
98.9%
Team run for a loss of 5 yards to the Misso 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 6:18
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Keke Chism for 2 yds for a TD ( pass to Keke Chism for Two-Point Conversion)
-12.3
TD · Q2 2:49
Will Rogers pass complete to Osirus Mitchell for 7 yds for a TD ( KICK)
+11
TD · Q4 13:26
Will Rogers pass complete to Brad Cumbest for 10 yds for a TD ( KICK)
+5.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com