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MISS

Ole Miss 48 at LSU 53

LSU
2020 · Week 16 · Dec 19, 2020 · Tiger Stadium (LA)
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Win probability · LSU
modelLSU aheadMISS aheadconfidence bandkey playLSU scoreMISS score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDFGFGTDTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of GameTD+48.8LSU 94.0%Max Johnson pass complete to KayshonBoutte for 45 yds for a TD ( KICK)AWAY 48 - HOME 53 · Q4 1:34
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 1:34 · Max Johnson pass complete to Kayshon Boutte for 45 yds for a TD ( KICK)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+25.0+12.50−12.5−25.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 198Home team on offense+24.4Pregame prior−0.1Garbage-time factor+16.0Score differential−1.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+3.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+3.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 4:03: Matt Corral pass complete to Dontario Drummond for 5 yds for a TD OLE MISS Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the LSU 8 ( KICK) — MISS win probability +15.2 pts (now 45%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  2. TD · Q4 14:53: Matt Corral pass complete to Braylon Sanders for 25 yds for a TD ( KICK) — MISS win probability +23.4 pts (now 61%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 8:43: Matt Corral run for 2 yds for a TD ( KICK) — MISS win probability +21.7 pts (now 85%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 5:31: Max Johnson run for 1 yd for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — LSU win probability +25.8 pts (now 42%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 1:34: Max Johnson pass complete to Kayshon Boutte for 45 yds for a TD ( KICK) — LSU win probability +48.8 pts (now 94%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
LSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 8MISS made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 15:00LSU 4th & 9 at LSU 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.9%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:18LSU 4th & 5 at MISS 43, down 7
    Close callPunted · 48.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.5%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    48.3%−0.2
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    48.4%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:08MISS 4th & 15 at MISS 3, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.3%−0.7
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.0%
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:26MISS 4th & 8 at MISS 27, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.3%−0.4
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.7%
    average punt
  5. Q1 4:14LSU 4th & 10 at LSU 39, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.0%−0.4
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.4%
    average punt
  6. Q1 2:45MISS 4th & 3 at LSU 40, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 47.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    48.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    47.3%−0.7
    34% to make
    Punt
    47.4%−0.6
    average punt
  7. Q2 12:17LSU 4th & 1 at MISS 1, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 54.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    53.7%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    52.1%−1.6
    94% to make
    Punt
    48.1%−5.6
    average punt
  8. Q2 11:57LSU 4th & 8 at MISS 39, up 3
    Close callPunted · 53.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.6%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    53.2%−0.4
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    53.3%−0.3
    average punt
  9. Q2 4:50LSU 4th & 2 at MISS 32, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 57.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    57.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    55.9%−1.4
    51% to make
    Punt
    54.8%−2.6
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:58LSU 4th & 2 at MISS 18, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 58.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    58.1%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    57.8%−0.3
    79% to make
    Punt
    52.2%−5.9
    average punt
  11. Q3 8:11LSU 4th & 8 at LSU 27, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.5%−1.5
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.0%
    average punt
  12. Q3 2:08MISS 4th & 1 at MISS 42, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 33.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    34.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    31.3%−2.9
    average punt
  13. Q4 8:43MISS 4th & 2 at LSU 2, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 56.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    58.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    52.3%−5.7
    94% to make
    Punt
    29.5%−28.4
    average punt
  14. Q4 3:47MISS 4th & 22 at MISS 13, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.8%−17.9
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.7%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
LSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 6MISS made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 11:18MISS Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    51.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 5:26LSU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    52.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    52.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 12:17LSU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 4:50LSU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 3:07MISS Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    42.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    42.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 0:58LSU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 8:11MISS Touchdown, down 10 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    25.9%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    25.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 4:03MISS Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    35.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    35.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 14:53MISS Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    47.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.4%−0.3
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 8:43MISS Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.8%−1.0
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 5:31LSU Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    40.7%−1.7
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    42.4%
    45% to convert
  12. Q4 1:34LSU Touchdown, up 4 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.7%−0.6
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.3%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
LSUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:0044% → 44%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+4
44.1%
Max Johnson pass complete to Koy Moore for 4 yds to the LSU 33Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 33
-3
44.1%
Max Johnson pass complete to Tre Bradford for a loss of 3 yards to the LSU 30Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 30
0
44.1%
Max Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 9
OWN 30
+5
44.1%
Zach Von Rosenberg punt for 50 yds , returns for 5 yds to the Miss 35 OLE MISS Penalty, illegal block (10 Yards) to the Miss 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 2TD
6 plays · 85 yds · 2:1356% → 57%
Q1 13:31
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+8
44.5%
Matt Corral pass complete to Braylon Sanders for 8 yds to the Miss 23Similar
Q1 13:31
2ND & 2
OWN 23
-6
44.5%
Jerrion Ealy run for 4 yds to the Miss 27 OLE MISS Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the Miss 17Similar
Q1 13:31
2ND & 8
OWN 17
+57
44.5%
Matt Corral pass complete to Casey Kelly for 57 yds to the LSU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:31
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+4
44.3%
Jerrion Ealy run for 4 yds to the LSU 22Similar
Q1 13:31
2ND & 6
OPP 22
+2
44.3%
Matt Corral run for 2 yds to the LSU 20Similar
Q1 11:18
3RD & 4
OPP 20
+20
43.4%
Matt Corral pass complete to Braylon Sanders for 20 yds for a TD ( KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 3PUNT
9 plays · 32 yds · 0:0044% → 44%
Q1 11:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
43.8%
Chris Curry run for 1 yd to the LSU 26Similar
Q1 11:18
2ND & 9
OWN 26
-5
43.8%
Max Johnson pass complete to Kayshon Boutte for 11 yards to the LSU37 (Jakorey Hawkins), PENALTY LSU illegal motion (Jaray Jenkins) 5 yards to the LSU21, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 11:18
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+20
43.8%
Max Johnson pass complete to Kole Taylor for 20 yds to the LSU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:18
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+11
44.0%
Max Johnson pass complete to Koy Moore for 11 yds to the Miss 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:18
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+5
44.2%
Chris Curry run for 5 yds to the Miss 43Similar
Q1 11:18
2ND & 5
OPP 43
0
44.2%
Max Johnson pass incomplete to Koy MooreSimilar
Q1 11:18
3RD & 5
OPP 43
0
44.2%
Max Johnson pass incomplete to Koy Moore, broken up by A.J. FinleySimilar
Q1 11:18
4TH & 5
OPP 43
0
43.9%
Zach Von Rosenberg punt for 35 yds, downed at the Miss 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · -5 yds · 0:0057% → 56%
Q1 9:08
1ST & 10
OWN 8
-4
43.5%
Jerrion Ealy run for a loss of 4 yards to the Miss 4Similar
Q1 9:08
2ND & 14
OWN 4
0
43.5%
Matt Corral pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:08
3RD & 14
OWN 4
-1
43.7%
Matt Corral sacked by Andre Anthony for a loss of 1 yard to the Miss 3Similar
Q1 9:08
4TH & 15
OWN 3
+14
43.9%
Mac Brown punt for 42 yds , returns for 14 yds to the Miss 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 5FG
7 plays · 15 yds · 0:0044% → 44%
Q1 7:44
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
44.4%
Chris Curry run for no gain to the Miss 31Similar
Q1 7:44
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+5
44.4%
Max Johnson pass complete to Trey Palmer for 5 yds to the Miss 26Similar
Q1 7:44
3RD & 5
OPP 26
+8
44.0%
Max Johnson pass complete to Kayshon Boutte for 8 yds to the Miss 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:44
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+2
44.4%
Chris Curry run for 2 yds to the Miss 16Similar
Q1 7:44
2ND & 8
OPP 16
0
44.4%
Max Johnson pass incomplete to Chris Curry, broken up by MoMo SanogoSimilar
Q1 7:44
3RD & 8
OPP 16
0
44.0%
Max Johnson pass incomplete to Trey PalmerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 6INT TD
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0052% → 52%
Q1 5:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-31
48.2%
Matt Corral pass intercepted for a TD return for 31 yds for a TD ( KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0052% → 51%
Q1 5:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
48.2%
Matt Corral pass complete to Henry Parrish Jr. for a loss of 2 yards to the Miss 23Similar
Q1 5:26
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+4
48.3%
Matt Corral pass complete to Henry Parrish Jr. for 4 yds to the Miss 27Similar
Q1 5:26
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
48.5%
Matt Corral pass incomplete, broken up by BJ OjulariSimilar
Q1 5:26
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
48.9%
Mac Brown punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Koy Moore at the LSU 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 14 yds · 0:0049% → 48%
Q1 4:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
48.5%
Max Johnson run for 2 yds to the LSU 27Similar
Q1 4:14
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+12
48.5%
Max Johnson pass complete to Trey Palmer for 12 yds to the LSU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:14
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
48.9%
Max Johnson pass incomplete to Kayshon BoutteSimilar
Q1 4:14
2ND & 10
OWN 39
0
48.8%
Max Johnson pass incomplete to Kole TaylorSimilar
Q1 4:14
3RD & 10
OWN 39
0
48.4%
Max Johnson pass incomplete to Kayshon Boutte, broken up by Miles BattleSimilar
Q1 4:14
4TH & 10
OWN 39
+18
47.9%
Zach Von Rosenberg punt for 42 yds , returns for 18 yds to the Miss 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 9INT
5 plays · 23 yds · 0:0051% → 51%
Q1 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+16
48.8%
Matt Corral run for 16 yds to the LSU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:45
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+6
47.9%
Jerrion Ealy run for 6 yds to the LSU 41Similar
Q1 2:45
2ND & 4
OPP 41
+2
47.8%
Jerrion Ealy run for 2 yds to the LSU 39Similar
Q1 2:45
3RD & 2
OPP 39
-1
47.9%
Jerrion Ealy run for a loss of 1 yard to the LSU 40Similar
Q1 2:45
4TH & 3
OPP 40
-27
48.6%
Matt Corral pass intercepted return for 13 yds to the LSU 27 LSU Penalty, personal foul (14 Yards) to the LSU 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 10TD
9 plays · 86 yds · 3:3350% → 58%
Q1 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+2
49.5%
Josh Williams run for 2 yds to the LSU 16Similar
Q1 0:50
2ND & 8
OWN 16
+23
49.5%
Max Johnson pass complete to Kayshon Boutte for 23 yds to the LSU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+26
50.6%
Max Johnson pass complete to Koy Moore for 26 yds to the Miss 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+1
52.0%
Josh Williams run for 1 yd to the Miss 34Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 34
+30
51.9%
Josh Williams run for 30 yds to the Miss 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
52.0%
Josh Williams run for 2 yds to the Miss 2Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
52.0%
Josh Williams run for 1 yd to the Miss 1Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
51.4%
Max Johnson run for no gain to the Miss 1Similar
Q2 12:17
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
57.7%
Max Johnson run for 1 yd for a TD ( KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 12PUNT
12 plays · 47 yds · 0:0051% → 51%
Q2 11:57
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+11
50.9%
Max Johnson pass complete to Jaray Jenkins for 11 yds to the LSU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
51.1%
Tre Bradford run for 7 yds to the LSU 32Similar
Q2 11:57
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+4
52.0%
Tre Bradford run for 4 yds to the LSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:57
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
51.7%
Max Johnson pass incomplete to Koy MooreSimilar
Q2 11:57
2ND & 10
OWN 36
0
51.4%
Max Johnson pass incomplete to Kayshon Boutte, broken up by Deane LeonardSimilar
Q2 11:57
3RD & 10
OWN 36
+12
50.6%
Max Johnson run for 12 yds to the LSU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:57
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+11
52.6%
Tre Bradford run for 11 yds to the Miss 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:57
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
53.0%
Max Johnson pass incomplete to Kayshon BoutteSimilar
Q2 11:57
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+2
52.9%
Tre Bradford run for 2 yds to the Miss 39Similar
Q2 11:57
3RD & 8
OPP 39
0
52.5%
Max Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:57
4TH & 8
OPP 39
0
51.3%
Zach Von Rosenberg punt for 34 yds, downed at the Miss 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 13INT
5 plays · 36 yds · 0:0046% → 49%
Q2 8:12
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+1
53.6%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 7 yds to the Miss 12 OLE MISS Penalty, Offensive holding (Nick Broeker) to the Miss 6Similar
Q2 8:12
1ST & 9
OWN 6
+11
53.6%
Matt Corral run for 11 yds to the Miss 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:12
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+1
52.8%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 1 yd to the Miss 18Similar
Q2 8:12
2ND & 9
OWN 18
+23
53.0%
Matt Corral run for 23 yds to the Miss 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:12
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
51.1%
Matt Corral pass intercepted return for no gain to the Miss 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 14TD
4 plays · 40 yds · 1:2257% → 65%
Q2 6:12
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
56.8%
Max Johnson pass incomplete to Trey PalmerSimilar
Q2 6:12
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+3
56.6%
Max Johnson run for 3 yds to the Miss 37Similar
Q2 6:12
3RD & 7
OPP 37
+5
56.4%
Max Johnson run for 5 yds to the Miss 32Similar
Q2 4:50
4TH & 2
OPP 32
+32
65.0%
Max Johnson pass complete to Kayshon Boutte for 32 yds for a TD ( KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 15TD
7 plays · 61 yds · 1:3337% → 49%
Q2 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+19
63.2%
Matt Corral pass complete to Jerrion Ealy for 19 yds to the LSU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:40
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+4
62.2%
Jerrion Ealy run for 4 yds to the LSU 38Similar
Q2 4:40
2ND & 6
OPP 38
+11
62.0%
Matt Corral run for 11 yds to the LSU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:40
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+24
61.0%
Matt Corral pass complete to Henry Parrish Jr. for 24 yds to the LSU 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
61.0%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 2 yds to the LSU 1Similar
Q2 3:07
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
50.8%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 1 yd for a TD ( KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 16TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 2:0955% → 70%
Q2 3:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+22
55.4%
Max Johnson pass complete to Kayshon Boutte for 22 yds to the LSU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:07
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
57.6%
Max Johnson pass incomplete to Kayshon BoutteSimilar
Q2 2:41
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+8
57.6%
Josh Williams run for 8 yds to the Miss 45Similar
Q2 2:41
3RD & 2
OPP 45
+2
58.3%
Max Johnson run for 2 yds to the Miss 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:41
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+17
58.7%
Max Johnson pass complete to Trey Palmer for 17 yds to the Miss 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:41
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
59.7%
Max Johnson pass incomplete to Trey PalmerSimilar
Q2 2:41
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+2
59.5%
Josh Williams run for 2 yds to the Miss 24Similar
Q2 1:10
3RD & 8
OPP 24
+6
58.6%
Max Johnson pass complete to Kayshon Boutte for 6 yds to the Miss 18Similar
Q2 0:58
4TH & 2
OPP 18
+18
69.7%
Max Johnson pass complete to Kayshon Boutte for 18 yds for a TD ( KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 17INT
4 plays · 10 yds · 0:0031% → 31%
Q2 0:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
69.3%
Matt Corral pass complete to Henry Parrish Jr. for 1 yd to the Miss 26Similar
Q2 0:58
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+9
69.4%
Matt Corral run for 9 yds to the Miss 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:58
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-14
68.7%
Matt Corral pass intercepted return for 14 yds to the Miss 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 18FG
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0872% → 69%
Q2 0:23
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+6
72.0%
Max Johnson pass complete to Koy Moore for 6 yds to the Miss 13Similar
Q2 0:15
2ND & 4
OPP 13
0
70.4%
Max Johnson pass incomplete to Kole TaylorSimilar
Q2 0:15
3RD & 4
OPP 13
-3
69.1%
Max Johnson sacked by Sam Williams for a loss of 3 yards to the Miss 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 19END OF HALF
2 plays · 10 yds · 0:0027% → 27%
Q2 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+10
73.4%
Jerrion Ealy run for 10 yds to the Miss 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 20INT
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:0027% → 27%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-1
72.8%
Jerrion Ealy run for a loss of 1 yard to the Miss 16Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 11
OWN 16
0
73.2%
Matt Corral pass incomplete to Jerrion EalySimilar
Q3 14:54
3RD & 11
OWN 16
-16
73.5%
Matt Corral pass intercepted return for 16 yds to the Miss 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 21FG
11 plays · 39 yds · 0:0077% → 79%
Q3 14:09
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+1
76.8%
Josh Williams run for 1 yd to the Miss 43Similar
Q3 14:09
2ND & 9
OPP 43
+9
76.7%
Max Johnson pass complete to Koy Moore for 9 yds to the Miss 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:09
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+8
76.8%
Max Johnson pass complete to Kayshon Boutte for 8 yds to the Miss 26Similar
Q3 14:09
2ND & 2
OPP 26
+1
76.8%
Josh Williams run for 1 yd to the Miss 25Similar
Q3 14:09
3RD & 1
OPP 25
+1
76.1%
Max Johnson run for 1 yd to the Miss 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:09
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+7
76.8%
Max Johnson pass complete to Koy Moore for 7 yds to the Miss 17Similar
Q3 14:09
2ND & 3
OPP 17
+6
76.8%
Josh Williams run for 6 yds to the Miss 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:09
1ST & 10
OPP 11
-5
76.8%
LSU Penalty, false start (Austin Deculus) to the Miss 16Similar
Q3 14:09
1ST & 15
OPP 16
0
76.8%
Max Johnson pass incomplete to Koy MooreSimilar
Q3 14:09
2ND & 15
OPP 16
+11
76.7%
Tre Bradford run for 11 yds to the Miss 5Similar
Q3 14:09
3RD & 4
OPP 5
0
78.7%
Max Johnson pass incomplete to Koy MooreSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 22TD
6 plays · 65 yds · 1:3920% → 31%
Q3 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
80.3%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 7 yds to the Miss 42Similar
Q3 9:50
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+25
79.8%
Matt Corral run for 25 yds to the LSU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:50
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+17
78.1%
Matt Corral pass complete to Braylon Sanders for 17 yds to the LSU 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:50
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+6
77.6%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 6 yds to the LSU 10Similar
Q3 8:11
2ND & 4
OPP 10
+10
69.0%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 10 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0074% → 72%
Q3 8:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
73.9%
Chris Curry run for no gain to the LSU 25Similar
Q3 8:11
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
73.6%
Max Johnson pass complete to Kole Taylor for 2 yds to the LSU 27Similar
Q3 8:11
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
72.6%
Max Johnson pass incomplete to Josh WilliamsSimilar
Q3 8:11
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
71.8%
Zach Von Rosenberg punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Dontario Drummond at the Miss 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 24TD
8 plays · 77 yds · 2:4426% → 45%
Q3 6:47
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+18
74.5%
Jerrion Ealy run for 18 yds to the Miss 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:47
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
73.2%
Jerrion Ealy run for 5 yds to the Miss 46Similar
Q3 6:47
2ND & 5
OWN 46
-3
72.5%
Jerrion Ealy run for a loss of 3 yards to the Miss 43Similar
Q3 6:47
3RD & 8
OWN 43
+21
74.0%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 21 yds to the LSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:47
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+27
71.6%
Matt Corral run for 27 yds to the LSU 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+4
69.9%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 4 yds to the LSU 5Similar
Q3 6:47
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
69.9%
Matt Corral pass incomplete to Dontario Drummond, broken up by Dwight McGlothernSimilar
Q3 4:03
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
54.7%
Matt Corral pass complete to Dontario Drummond for 5 yds for a TD OLE MISS Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the LSU 8 ( KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 25FG
6 plays · 48 yds · 0:0060% → 71%
Q3 4:01
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+1
60.4%
Josh Williams run for 1 yd to the LSU 22Similar
Q3 4:01
2ND & 9
OWN 22
+47
60.1%
Max Johnson pass complete to Kayshon Boutte for 47 yds to the Miss 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:01
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
65.5%
Josh Williams run for no gain to the Miss 31Similar
Q3 4:01
2ND & 10
OPP 31
0
65.4%
Max Johnson pass incomplete to Jontre KirklinSimilar
Q3 4:01
3RD & 10
OPP 31
0
70.7%
Max Johnson pass incomplete to Jontre KirklinSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 26TD
7 plays · 67 yds · 2:1535% → 61%
Q3 2:08
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+7
64.6%
Matt Corral run for 7 yds to the Miss 40Similar
Q3 2:08
2ND & 3
OWN 40
0
62.0%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for no gain to the Miss 40Similar
Q3 2:08
3RD & 3
OWN 40
+2
62.7%
Snoop Conner run for 2 yds to the Miss 42Similar
Q3 2:08
4TH & 1
OWN 42
+2
65.2%
Matt Corral run for 2 yds to the Miss 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:08
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+31
62.7%
Matt Corral pass complete to Dontario Drummond for 31 yds to the LSU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+25
39.3%
Matt Corral pass complete to Braylon Sanders for 25 yds for a TD ( KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 27INT
6 plays · 68 yds · 0:0047% → 54%
Q4 14:42
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+47
46.8%
Max Johnson pass complete to Kayshon Boutte for 47 yds to the Miss 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:42
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+2
54.3%
Tre Bradford run for 2 yds to the Miss 29Similar
Q4 14:42
2ND & 8
OPP 29
+15
54.3%
Max Johnson pass complete to Kayshon Boutte for 15 yds to the Miss 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:42
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+4
54.3%
Max Johnson run for 4 yds to the Miss 10Similar
Q4 14:42
2ND & 6
OPP 10
0
54.3%
Max Johnson pass intercepted, touchback. return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 28TD
13 plays · 80 yds · 3:5255% → 85%
Q4 12:35
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
45.1%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 1 yd to the Miss 21Similar
Q4 12:35
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+4
45.5%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 4 yds to the Miss 25Similar
Q4 12:35
3RD & 5
OWN 25
+8
46.4%
Matt Corral run for 8 yds to the Miss 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:35
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+26
44.0%
Matt Corral pass complete to Jonathan Mingo for 26 yds to the LSU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:35
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+5
40.7%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 5 yds to the LSU 36Similar
Q4 12:35
2ND & 5
OPP 36
+10
40.2%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 10 yds to the LSU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:35
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+23
38.8%
Snoop Conner run for 23 yds to the LSU 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-2
34.6%
Snoop Conner run for a loss of 2 yards to the LSU 5Similar
Q4 9:57
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
34.6%
Matt Corral pass incomplete to Jonathan MingoSimilar
Q4 9:57
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
36.6%
Matt Corral run for 3 yds to the LSU 2Similar
Q4 8:43
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
14.9%
Matt Corral run for 2 yds for a TD ( KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 29TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 3:0318% → 42%
Q4 8:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
17.8%
Max Johnson pass incomplete to Kayshon BoutteSimilar
Q4 8:34
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+22
17.5%
Max Johnson run for 7 yds to the LSU 32 for a 1ST down OLE MISS Penalty, illegal helmet contact (Sam Williams) to the LSU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:34
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+16
20.9%
Max Johnson pass complete to Kayshon Boutte for 16 yds to the Miss 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:34
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
22.1%
Max Johnson pass incomplete to Koy MooreSimilar
Q4 8:34
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+12
21.8%
Tre Bradford run for 12 yds to the Miss 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:34
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+9
24.3%
Max Johnson run for 9 yds to the Miss 16Similar
Q4 8:34
2ND & 1
OPP 16
0
24.3%
Tre Bradford run for no gain to the Miss 16Similar
Q4 8:34
3RD & 1
OPP 16
+1
22.7%
Max Johnson run for 1 yd to the Miss 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:34
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+14
24.3%
Max Johnson pass complete to Kayshon Boutte for 14 yds to the Miss 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
42.1%
Max Johnson run for 1 yd for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 30PUNT
7 plays · -12 yds · 1:4468% → 68%
Q4 5:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
31.6%
OLE MISS Penalty, false start (Royce Newman) to the Miss 20Similar
Q4 5:31
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+3
32.2%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 3 yds to the Miss 23Similar
Q4 5:31
2ND & 12
OWN 23
0
32.5%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for no gain to the Miss 23Similar
Q4 3:47
3RD & 12
OWN 23
-10
29.9%
Matt Corral sacked by Neil Farrell Jr. for a loss of 10 yards to the Miss 13Similar
Q4 3:47
4TH & 22
OWN 13
+9
31.6%
Mac Brown punt for 52 yds , returns for 9 yds to the LSU 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 31TD
3 plays · 56 yds · 1:0243% → 94%
Q4 2:36
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+7
42.5%
Max Johnson pass complete to Kayshon Boutte for 7 yds to the Miss 49Similar
Q4 2:36
2ND & 3
OPP 49
+4
45.2%
Tre Bradford run for 4 yds to the Miss 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:34
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+45
94.0%
Max Johnson pass complete to Kayshon Boutte for 45 yds for a TD ( KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 32FUMBLE
7 plays · 39 yds · 0:0018% → 29%
Q4 1:28
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
81.6%
Matt Corral pass incomplete to Henry Parrish Jr.Similar
Q4 1:28
2ND & 10
OWN 34
0
82.2%
Matt Corral pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:28
3RD & 10
OWN 34
+22
84.6%
Matt Corral run for 22 yds to the LSU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:28
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+4
77.1%
Matt Corral pass complete to Jadon Jackson for 4 yds to the LSU 40Similar
Q4 1:28
2ND & 6
OPP 40
+12
76.0%
Matt Corral pass complete to Jonathan Mingo for 12 yds to the LSU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:28
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+1
71.5%
Matt Corral run for 1 yd to the LSU 27 Matt Corral fumbled, forced by Ali Gaye, recovered by LSU JaCoby StevensSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 33END OF GAME
5 plays · -3 yds · 0:0695% → 95%
Q4 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-1
94.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the LSU 26Similar
Q4 0:37
2ND & 11
OWN 26
-1
94.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the LSU 25Similar
Q4 0:34
3RD & 12
OWN 25
-1
94.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the LSU 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 1:34
Max Johnson pass complete to Kayshon Boutte for 45 yds for a TD ( KICK)
+48.8
TD · Q4 5:31
Max Johnson run for 1 yd for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed )
+25.8
TD · Q4 14:53
Matt Corral pass complete to Braylon Sanders for 25 yds for a TD ( KICK)
-23.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com