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ALA

Alabama 52 at Arkansas 3

ARK
2020 · Week 15 · Dec 12, 2020 · Razorback Stadium
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Win probability · ARK
modelARK aheadALA aheadconfidence bandkey playARK scoreALA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 0:56 · Reid Bauer punt for 39 yds , DeVonta Smith returns for 5 yds to the Ark 49
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+59.5+29.80−29.8−59.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 47Pregame prior−45.2Home team on offense−2.9Score differential−0.8Garbage-time factor−1.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.3
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q1 10:54: Will Reichard 45 yd FG GOOD — ARK win probability +0.1 pts (now 4%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 12:04: Najee Harris run for 1 yd for a TD (Will Reichard KICK) — ALA win probability +1.3 pts (now 95%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 11:50: Najee Harris run for 5 yds for a TD (Will Reichard KICK) — ALA win probability +2.1 pts (now 97%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 6:43: Brian Robinson Jr. run for 1 yd for a TD (Will Reichard KICK) — ALA win probability +0.2 pts (now 97%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q2 0:33: Brian Robinson Jr. run for 4 yds for a TD (Will Reichard KICK) — ALA win probability +1.4 pts (now 99%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ARK made the numbers' call on 6 of 7ALA made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 13:16ARK 4th & 16 at ARK 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.4%−0.2
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:54ALA 4th & 2 at ARK 28, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 94.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    94.8%−0.1
    60% to make
    Punt
    94.4%−0.4
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:18ARK 4th & 9 at ALA 9, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 6.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.1%−0.1
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    6.2%
    89% to make
    Punt
    5.7%−0.5
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:18ALA 4th & 4 at ARK 43, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 92.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    92.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    92.6%−0.1
    28% to make
    Punt
    92.7%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q1 2:36ARK 4th & 11 at ARK 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.0%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.1%
    average punt
  6. Q1 0:56ARK 4th & 20 at ARK 15, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.5%−0.5
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.1%
    average punt
  7. Q2 10:28ARK 4th & 4 at ARK 30, down 21
    Close callPunted · 4.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.3%−0.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 5:04ARK 4th & 3 at ARK 32, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.3%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.3%
    average punt
  9. Q3 6:18ARK 4th & 17 at ARK 18, down 42
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.3%−0.2
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.5%
    average punt
  10. Q3 4:40ALA 4th & 6 at ALA 38, up 42
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.4%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.4%
    average punt
  11. Q4 5:35ALA 4th & 6 at ALA 43, up 42
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.8%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ALA made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q2 12:04ALA Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 11:50ALA Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 6:43ALA Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:33ALA Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 7:24ALA Touchdown, up 41 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 1:51ALA Touchdown, up 48 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ARKDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 10 yds · 1:383% → 4%
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
3.2%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Mike Woods for 16 yds to the Ark 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:20
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
3.3%
Feleipe Franks run for no gain to the Ark 41Similar
Q1 14:05
2ND & 10
OWN 41
-1
3.4%
Trelon Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ark 40Similar
Q1 13:55
3RD & 11
OWN 40
-5
3.4%
Feleipe Franks sacked by Christian Barmore for a loss of 5 yards to the Ark 35Similar
Q1 13:16
4TH & 16
OWN 35
+22
3.5%
Reid Bauer punt for 34 yds , DeVonta Smith returns for 22 yds to the Ark 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 2FG
7 plays · 19 yds · 2:0696% → 96%
Q1 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+1
3.6%
Najee Harris run for 1 yd to the Ark 46Similar
Q1 12:44
2ND & 9
OPP 46
0
3.6%
Mac Jones pass incomplete to Najee HarrisSimilar
Q1 12:30
3RD & 9
OPP 46
+10
3.7%
Mac Jones pass complete to Slade Bolden for 10 yds to the Ark 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:10
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+4
3.7%
Najee Harris run for 4 yds to the Ark 32Similar
Q1 11:45
2ND & 6
OPP 32
+4
3.8%
Najee Harris run for 4 yds to the Ark 28Similar
Q1 11:22
3RD & 2
OPP 28
0
3.9%
Najee Harris run for no gain to the Ark 28Similar
Q1 10:54
4TH & 2
OPP 28
+45
4.0%
Will Reichard 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 3FG
14 plays · 66 yds · 3:284% → 5%
Q1 10:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
4.1%
Trelon Smith run for 16 yds to the Ark 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
4.2%
Feleipe Franks pass incomplete to Mike WoodsSimilar
Q1 10:20
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+11
4.2%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Treylon Burks for 11 yds to the Alab 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:45
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+4
4.4%
Feleipe Franks run for 4 yds to the Alab 44Similar
Q1 9:20
2ND & 6
OPP 44
+1
4.5%
Feleipe Franks run for 1 yd to the Alab 43Similar
Q1 9:10
3RD & 5
OPP 43
+24
4.6%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Trelon Smith for 24 yds to the Alab 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:00
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+3
4.6%
T.J. Hammonds run for 3 yds to the Alab 16Similar
Q1 8:30
2ND & 7
OPP 16
+8
4.8%
ALABAMA Penalty, Defensive Holding (8 Yards) to the Alab 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-5
4.8%
ARKANSAS Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Alab 13Similar
Q1 8:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 13
+5
4.9%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Treylon Burks for 5 yds to the Alab 8Similar
Q1 7:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
-1
5.1%
Feleipe Franks sacked by Will Anderson Jr. for a loss of 1 yard to the Alab 9Similar
Q1 7:22
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
0
5.1%
Feleipe Franks pass incomplete to Trey KnoxSimilar
Q1 7:18
4TH & GOAL
OPP 9
+26
5.1%
Matthew Phillips 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 4DOWNS
9 plays · 22 yds · 2:4295% → 94%
Q1 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
5.1%
Mac Jones pass complete to Miller Forristall for 6 yds to the Alab 41Similar
Q1 6:40
2ND & 4
OWN 41
0
5.1%
Najee Harris run for no gain to the Alab 41Similar
Q1 5:56
3RD & 4
OWN 41
+10
5.3%
Mac Jones pass complete to DeVonta Smith for 10 yds to the Ark 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:49
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
5.3%
Mac Jones pass incomplete to DeVonta SmithSimilar
Q1 5:26
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+2
5.4%
Mac Jones pass complete to Najee Harris for 2 yds to the Ark 47Similar
Q1 5:11
3RD & 8
OPP 47
+5
5.6%
ARKANSAS Penalty, Neutral Zone Infraction (5 Yards) to the Ark 42Similar
Q1 4:48
3RD & 3
OPP 42
-1
5.6%
Najee Harris run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ark 43Similar
Q1 4:18
4TH & 4
OPP 43
0
5.9%
Mac Jones pass incomplete to Brian Robinson Jr.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 5PUNT RETURN TD
6 plays · -1 yds · 1:246% → 5%
Q1 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
6.4%
Trelon Smith run for 3 yds to the Ark 46Similar
Q1 3:58
2ND & 7
OWN 46
-5
6.4%
ARKANSAS Penalty, False Start (Ty Clary) to the Ark 41Similar
Q1 3:26
2ND & 12
OWN 41
+6
6.5%
Trelon Smith run for 6 yds to the Ark 47Similar
Q1 3:20
3RD & 6
OWN 47
-5
6.6%
ARKANSAS Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Ark 42Similar
Q1 2:53
3RD & 11
OWN 42
0
6.6%
KJ Jefferson pass incomplete to Treylon BurksSimilar
Q1 2:36
4TH & 11
OWN 42
+84
5.4%
Reid Bauer punt for 42 yds , DeVonta Smith returns for 84 yds for a TD (Will Reichard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · -10 yds · 1:296% → 6%
Q1 2:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
5.6%
Trelon Smith run for 2 yds to the Ark 27Similar
Q1 2:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-4
5.7%
Feleipe Franks sacked by Phidarian Mathis and Byron Young for a loss of 4 yards to the Ark 23Similar
Q1 1:15
3RD & 12
OWN 23
-8
5.7%
Feleipe Franks sacked by Will Anderson Jr. for a loss of 8 yards to the Ark 15Similar
Q1 0:56
4TH & 20
OWN 15
+5
5.7%
Reid Bauer punt for 39 yds , DeVonta Smith returns for 5 yds to the Ark 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 7TD
8 plays · 49 yds · 3:4694% → 95%
Q1 0:50
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+17
5.6%
Najee Harris run for 17 yds to the Ark 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:15
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+6
5.7%
Mac Jones pass complete to DeVonta Smith for 6 yds to the Ark 26Similar
Q2 14:49
2ND & 4
OPP 26
+2
5.8%
Najee Harris run for 2 yds to the Ark 24Similar
Q2 14:14
3RD & 2
OPP 24
+5
6.0%
Najee Harris run for 5 yds to the Ark 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:43
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+13
6.0%
Mac Jones pass complete to Miller Forristall for 13 yds to the Ark 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
6.1%
Najee Harris run for 2 yds to the Ark 4Similar
Q2 12:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
6.3%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 3 yds to the Ark 1Similar
Q2 12:04
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
5.0%
Najee Harris run for 1 yd for a TD (Will Reichard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 8FUMBLE
2 plays · -20 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q2 11:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-20
5.2%
Feleipe Franks sacked by Christopher Allen for a loss of 20 yards to the Ark 5 Feleipe Franks fumbled, forced by Christopher Allen, recovered by Alab DJ Dale , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 9TD
1 play · 5 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q2 11:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
3.1%
Najee Harris run for 5 yds for a TD (Will Reichard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:524% → 4%
Q2 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-3
3.6%
T.J. Hammonds run for a loss of 3 yards to the Ark 21Similar
Q2 11:12
2ND & 13
OWN 21
0
3.6%
KJ Jefferson pass incomplete to Treylon BurksSimilar
Q2 11:03
3RD & 13
OWN 21
+9
3.6%
KJ Jefferson run for 9 yds to the Ark 30Similar
Q2 10:28
4TH & 4
OWN 30
0
3.6%
Reid Bauer punt for 42 yds, downed at the Alab 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 11TD
10 plays · 72 yds · 3:2297% → 97%
Q2 10:05
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+22
3.2%
Mac Jones pass complete to John Metchie III for 22 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:51
1ST & 10
50
+1
3.1%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 1 yd to the Ark 49Similar
Q2 9:30
2ND & 9
OPP 49
+6
3.1%
Mac Jones pass complete to Brian Robinson Jr. for 6 yds to the Ark 43Similar
Q2 8:48
3RD & 3
OPP 43
+4
3.2%
Mac Jones pass complete to Brian Robinson Jr. for 4 yds to the Ark 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:27
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+5
3.1%
ARKANSAS Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Ark 34Similar
Q2 8:09
1ST & 5
OPP 34
+6
3.2%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 6 yds to the Ark 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:39
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+6
3.2%
Mac Jones pass complete to Brian Robinson Jr. for 6 yds to the Ark 22Similar
Q2 6:55
2ND & 4
OPP 22
+20
3.2%
Mac Jones pass complete to John Metchie III for 20 yds to the Ark 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
3.2%
ARKANSAS Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Jalen Catalon) to the Ark 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
3.0%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 1 yd for a TD (Will Reichard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:263% → 3%
Q2 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
3.2%
KJ Jefferson run for 4 yds to the Ark 29Similar
Q2 6:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+3
3.0%
KJ Jefferson run for 3 yds to the Ark 32Similar
Q2 5:42
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
3.0%
Trelon Smith run for no gain to the Ark 32Similar
Q2 5:04
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
3.0%
Reid Bauer punt for 38 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Alab 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 13TD
13 plays · 70 yds · 4:1796% → 99%
Q2 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
3.7%
Mac Jones pass complete to DeVonta Smith for 6 yds to the Alab 36Similar
Q2 4:30
2ND & 4
OWN 36
+2
3.6%
Najee Harris run for 2 yds to the Alab 38Similar
Q2 3:57
3RD & 2
OWN 38
+4
3.4%
Najee Harris run for 4 yds to the Alab 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+1
3.6%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 1 yd to the Alab 43Similar
Q2 2:42
2ND & 9
OWN 43
+7
3.6%
Mac Jones pass complete to Miller Forristall for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 2:03
3RD & 2
50
+8
3.3%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 8 yds to the Ark 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:32
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
2.8%
Mac Jones pass incomplete to John Metchie IIISimilar
Q2 1:15
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+4
2.8%
Mac Jones pass complete to John Metchie III for 4 yds to the Ark 38Similar
Q2 1:10
3RD & 6
OPP 38
+9
2.9%
Mac Jones pass complete to Miller Forristall for 9 yds to the Ark 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:03
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+8
2.7%
Mac Jones pass complete to Miller Forristall for 8 yds to the Ark 21Similar
Q2 0:54
2ND & 2
OPP 21
+17
2.2%
Mac Jones pass complete to Slade Bolden for 17 yds to the Ark 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
2.4%
Mac Jones pass incomplete to Slade BoldenSimilar
Q2 0:33
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
1.0%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 4 yds for a TD (Will Reichard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 14END OF HALF
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:322% → 1%
Q2 0:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
1.5%
ARKANSAS Penalty, False Start (Brady Latham) to the Ark 20Similar
Q2 0:24
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+5
1.4%
Trelon Smith run for 5 yds to the Ark 25Similar
Q2 0:01
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
1.3%
Trelon Smith run for no gain to the Ark 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 15TD
16 plays · 89 yds · 7:1999% → 100%
Q3 14:43
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+4
1.1%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 4 yds to the Alab 15Similar
Q3 14:10
2ND & 6
OWN 15
+9
1.1%
Mac Jones pass complete to Miller Forristall for 9 yds to the Alab 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:42
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+3
1.1%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 3 yds to the Alab 27Similar
Q3 13:11
2ND & 7
OWN 27
+6
1.0%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 6 yds to the Alab 33Similar
Q3 12:55
3RD & 1
OWN 33
+2
1.1%
Mac Jones run for 2 yds to the Alab 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+10
0.9%
Mac Jones pass complete to Slade Bolden for 10 yds to the Alab 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:42
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
0.8%
Mac Jones pass complete to Javon Baker for no gain to the Alab 45Similar
Q3 11:00
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+3
0.8%
Mac Jones pass complete to John Metchie III for 3 yds to the Alab 48Similar
Q3 10:30
3RD & 7
OWN 48
+23
0.8%
Mac Jones pass complete to John Metchie III for 23 yds to the Ark 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:45
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+6
0.8%
Mac Jones pass complete to Brian Robinson Jr. for 6 yds to the Ark 23Similar
Q3 9:24
2ND & 4
OPP 23
+8
0.7%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 8 yds to the Ark 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:50
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+5
0.6%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 5 yds to the Ark 10Similar
Q3 8:17
2ND & 5
OPP 10
+1
0.6%
Mac Jones pass complete to Jase McClellan for 1 yd to the Ark 9Similar
Q3 7:35
3RD & 4
OPP 9
+5
0.6%
ARKANSAS Penalty, Personal Foul (Hayden Henry) to the Ark 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
0.5%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 4 yds for a TD (Will Reichard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · -7 yds · 1:001% → 0%
Q3 7:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
0.5%
KJ Jefferson pass incomplete to Blake KernSimilar
Q3 7:12
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
0.4%
KJ Jefferson pass incomplete to Trelon SmithSimilar
Q3 6:45
3RD & 10
OWN 25
-7
0.4%
KJ Jefferson sacked by Christian Barmore for a loss of 7 yards to the Ark 18Similar
Q3 6:18
4TH & 17
OWN 18
0
0.4%
Reid Bauer punt for 48 yds, downed at the Alab 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:20100% → 99%
Q3 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+2
0.5%
Jase McClellan run for 2 yds to the Alab 36Similar
Q3 5:27
2ND & 8
OWN 36
+2
0.5%
Jase McClellan run for 2 yds to the Alab 38Similar
Q3 4:49
3RD & 6
OWN 38
0
0.5%
Bryce Young pass incomplete to Xavier WilliamsSimilar
Q3 4:40
4TH & 6
OWN 38
0
0.6%
Charlie Scott punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Nathan Parodi at the Ark 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 18FUMBLE
7 plays · 30 yds · 2:050% → 0%
Q3 4:22
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+2
0.3%
KJ Jefferson run for 2 yds to the Ark 28Similar
Q3 3:52
2ND & 8
OWN 28
+6
0.3%
Trelon Smith run for 6 yds to the Ark 34Similar
Q3 3:30
3RD & 2
OWN 34
+3
0.3%
Trelon Smith run for 3 yds to the Ark 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:16
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
0.3%
KJ Jefferson pass incomplete to Blake KernSimilar
Q3 3:10
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+1
0.3%
Trelon Smith run for 1 yd to the Ark 38Similar
Q3 2:23
3RD & 9
OWN 38
+18
0.3%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Mike Woods for 18 yds to the Alab 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:17
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
0.3%
KJ Jefferson run for no gain to the Alab 44 KJ Jefferson fumbled, forced by Jaylen Moody, recovered by Alab Byron YoungSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 19FUMBLE
7 plays · 45 yds · 3:30100% → 100%
Q3 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+15
0.4%
Bryce Young pass complete to Javon Baker for 15 yds to the Ark 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:30
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+5
0.4%
Jase McClellan run for 5 yds to the Ark 36Similar
Q3 0:45
2ND & 5
OPP 36
+6
0.3%
Bryce Young pass complete to Slade Bolden for 6 yds to the Ark 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:01
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+5
0.3%
Roydell Williams run for 5 yds to the Ark 25Similar
Q4 14:50
2ND & 5
OPP 25
+7
0.3%
Roydell Williams run for 7 yds to the Ark 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:00
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+7
0.3%
Roydell Williams run for 7 yds to the Ark 11Similar
Q4 13:30
2ND & 3
OPP 11
0
0.3%
Roydell Williams run for no gain to the Ark 11 Roydell Williams fumbled, forced by Jonathan Marshall, recovered by Ark Joe FouchaSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 20FUMBLE
11 plays · 50 yds · 5:200% → 0%
Q4 13:22
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+12
0.2%
Trelon Smith run for 12 yds to the Ark 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:56
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+7
0.2%
Feleipe Franks run for 7 yds to the Ark 30Similar
Q4 12:26
2ND & 3
OWN 30
+4
0.2%
Trelon Smith run for 4 yds to the Ark 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
0.2%
Trelon Smith run for 3 yds to the Ark 37Similar
Q4 11:04
2ND & 7
OWN 37
+5
0.2%
Trelon Smith run for 5 yds to the Ark 42Similar
Q4 10:00
3RD & 2
OWN 42
-7
0.1%
Feleipe Franks sacked by Shane Lee for a loss of 7 yards to the Ark 35Similar
Q4 9:45
4TH & 9
OWN 35
+15
0.1%
ALABAMA Penalty, Roughing the Kicker (Ale Kaho) to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:30
1ST & 10
50
+6
0.1%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Trey Knox for 6 yds to the Alab 44Similar
Q4 8:45
2ND & 4
OPP 44
+2
0.1%
Trelon Smith run for 2 yds to the Alab 42Similar
Q4 8:02
3RD & 2
OPP 42
+3
0.1%
Trelon Smith run for 3 yds to the Alab 39 Trelon Smith fumbled, forced by Josh Jobe, recovered by Alab Jaylen MoodySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:55100% → 100%
Q4 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
0.1%
Jase McClellan run for 5 yds to the Alab 44Similar
Q4 7:05
2ND & 5
OWN 44
+1
0.1%
Jase McClellan run for 1 yd to the Alab 45Similar
Q4 6:10
3RD & 4
OWN 45
-2
0.1%
Bryce Young pass complete to Thaiu Jones-Bell for a loss of 2 yards to the Alab 43Similar
Q4 5:35
4TH & 6
OWN 43
+15
0.2%
Charlie Scott punt for 39 yds , Nathan Parodi returns for 15 yds to the Ark 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 22INT
7 plays · 32 yds · 3:210% → 0%
Q4 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+11
0.1%
Feleipe Franks run for 11 yds to the Ark 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+8
0.1%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Blake Kern for 8 yds to the Alab 48Similar
Q4 4:00
2ND & 2
OPP 48
0
0.1%
Trelon Smith run for no gain to the Alab 48Similar
Q4 3:30
3RD & 2
OPP 48
+5
0.1%
Feleipe Franks run for 5 yds to the Alab 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+9
0.1%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Mike Woods for 9 yds to the Alab 34Similar
Q4 2:30
2ND & 1
OPP 34
-1
0.1%
Trelon Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the Alab 35Similar
Q4 2:04
3RD & 2
OPP 35
0
0.1%
Treylon Burks pass intercepted, touchback. Brian Branch return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 23TD
1 play · 80 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 1:51
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+80
0.1%
Jase McClellan run for 80 yds for a TD (Will Reichard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 24END OF 4TH QUARTER
6 plays · 28 yds · 1:290% → 0%
Q4 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
0.1%
T.J. Hammonds run for 1 yd to the Ark 26Similar
Q4 1:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+7
0.0%
T.J. Hammonds run for 7 yds to the Ark 33Similar
Q4 0:50
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+11
0.0%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Blake Kern for 11 yds to the Ark 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-8
0.1%
Feleipe Franks sacked by Tim Smith for a loss of 8 yards to the Ark 36Similar
Q4 0:01
2ND & 18
OWN 36
+17
0.0%
T.J. Hammonds run for 17 yds to the Alab 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 11:50
Najee Harris run for 5 yds for a TD (Will Reichard KICK)
-2.1
TD · Q2 0:33
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 4 yds for a TD (Will Reichard KICK)
-1.4
TD · Q2 12:04
Najee Harris run for 1 yd for a TD (Will Reichard KICK)
-1.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com