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TENN

Tennessee 42 at Vanderbilt 17

VAN
2020 · Week 15 · Dec 12, 2020 · FirstBank Stadium
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Win probability · VAN
modelVAN aheadTENN aheadconfidence bandkey playVAN scoreTENN score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 12:03 · Paxton Brooks pass complete to Henry To'o To'o for 31 yds to the Vandy 40 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+54.0+27.00−27.0−54.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 53Pregame prior−30.8Home team on offense+1.0Score differential+0.1Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 1:50: Ken Seals pass complete to Cam Johnson for 18 yds for a TD, (Sarah Fuller KICK) — VAN win probability +5.1 pts (now 21%) (top driver: VAN has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 8:37: Ken Seals pass intercepted for a TD Bryce Thompson return for 18 yds for a TD, (Toby Wilson KICK) — TENN win probability +4.4 pts (now 79%) (top driver: VAN has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 5:52: J.T. Shrout pass complete to Velus Jones Jr. for 23 yds for a TD, (Toby Wilson KICK) — TENN win probability +4.5 pts (now 85%) (top driver: TENN has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 0:44: J.T. Shrout pass complete to Jalin Hyatt for 26 yds for a TD, (Toby Wilson KICK) — TENN win probability +7.4 pts (now 93%) (top driver: TENN has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 12:50: Ty Chandler run for 20 yds for a TD, (Toby Wilson KICK) — TENN win probability +5.0 pts (now 98%) (top driver: TENN has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
VAN made the numbers' call on 11 of 14TENN made the numbers' call on 4 of 7
  1. Q1 15:00VAN 4th & 11 at VAN 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.4%−0.1
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:45TENN 4th & 1 at TENN 30, tied
    Close callPunted · 80.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.9%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 11:41VAN 4th & 9 at VAN 13, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.9%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.0%
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:54VAN 4th & 1 at TENN 19, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 21.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    21.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    20.7%−0.4
    77% to make
    Punt
    19.5%−1.6
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:03VAN 4th & 3 at TENN 21, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 29.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.0%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    28.7%−0.2
    74% to make
    Punt
    26.7%−2.2
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:03TENN 4th & 6 at TENN 29, down 3
    Close callWent for it · 69.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    69.1%−0.2
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    69.3%
    average punt
  7. Q2 12:03TENN 4th & 9 at VAN 39, down 3
    Close callPunted · 70.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.0%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    69.8%−0.2
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    69.9%−0.2
    average punt
  8. Q2 8:32VAN 4th & 26 at VAN 3, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.8%−2.8
    5% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.6%
    average punt
  9. Q2 5:52VAN 4th & 7 at VAN 39, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.8%−0.3
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.1%
    average punt
  10. Q2 3:52TENN 4th & 7 at TENN 48, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.1%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.2%
    average punt
  11. Q2 3:07VAN 4th & 5 at VAN 9, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.4%−0.4
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.7%
    average punt
  12. Q2 0:00VAN 4th & 1 at TENN 36, down 18
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.8 ptsKicked a field goal · 12.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    12.2%−1.8
    42% to make
    Punt
    12.3%−1.7
    average punt
  13. Q3 12:50VAN 4th & 10 at VAN 39, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.1%−0.9
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.0%
    average punt
  14. Q3 11:08TENN 4th & 6 at VAN 39, up 25
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 97.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    97.6%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    97.2%−0.4
    36% to make
    Punt
    97.2%−0.3
    average punt
  15. Q3 3:21VAN 4th & 9 at TENN 49, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.2%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.4%
    average punt
  16. Q3 0:43TENN 4th & 19 at TENN 13, up 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.7%−0.3
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.1%
    average punt
  17. Q4 15:00VAN 4th & 1 at VAN 42, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.6%−0.4
    average punt
  18. Q4 12:19VAN 4th & 7 at VAN 48, down 25
    Close callWent for it · 0.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.6%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.7%
    average punt
  19. Q4 12:04VAN 4th & 19 at TENN 44, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.3%−0.3
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    0.5%−0.1
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    0.6%
    average punt
  20. Q4 10:15TENN 4th & 8 at TENN 13, up 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.3%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.4%
    average punt
  21. Q4 7:03VAN 4th & 5 at VAN 30, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.3%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.4%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
VAN made the numbers' call on 1 of 2TENN made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 5:54TENN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 1:50VAN Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    24.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    24.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 8:37TENN Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 5:52TENN Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:44TENN Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 12:50TENN Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 7:22VAN Touchdown, down 19 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    2.7%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    2.9%
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 7:03TENN Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
VANDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:0013% → 13%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
12.5%
Keyon Henry-Brooks run for 3 yds to the Vandy 28Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-4
12.5%
Keyon Henry-Brooks run for a loss of 4 yards to the Vandy 24Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 24
0
12.5%
Ken Seals pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 11
OWN 24
+55
12.5%
Harrison Smith punt for 45 yds TENNESSEE Penalty, Offensive holding (10 Yards) to the Tenn 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0087% → 87%
Q1 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+1
13.1%
Harrison Bailey pass complete to Velus Jones Jr. for 1 yd to the Tenn 22Similar
Q1 13:45
2ND & 9
OWN 22
-1
13.1%
Harrison Bailey pass complete to Jalin Hyatt for a loss of 1 yard to the Tenn 21Similar
Q1 13:45
3RD & 10
OWN 21
+9
13.1%
Harrison Bailey pass complete to Josh Palmer for 9 yds to the Tenn 30Similar
Q1 13:45
4TH & 1
OWN 30
0
13.1%
Paxton Brooks punt for 58 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Vandy 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0014% → 14%
Q1 11:41
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
14.1%
Ken Seals pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:41
2ND & 10
OWN 12
+1
14.0%
Keyon Henry-Brooks run for 1 yd to the Vandy 13Similar
Q1 11:41
3RD & 9
OWN 13
0
14.0%
Ken Seals pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:41
4TH & 9
OWN 13
+5
13.9%
Harrison Smith punt for 34 yds , Eric Gray returns for 5 yds to the Vandy 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 4TD
9 plays · 42 yds · 4:4886% → 86%
Q1 10:42
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+5
14.2%
Ty Chandler run for 5 yds to the Vandy 37Similar
Q1 10:42
2ND & 5
OPP 37
+4
14.2%
Ty Chandler run for 4 yds to the Vandy 33Similar
Q1 10:42
3RD & 1
OPP 33
+1
14.2%
Harrison Bailey run for 1 yd to the Vandy 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:42
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+9
14.2%
Eric Gray run for 9 yds to the Vandy 23Similar
Q1 10:42
2ND & 1
OPP 23
+2
14.2%
Eric Gray run for 2 yds to the Vandy 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:42
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+1
14.2%
Eric Gray run for 1 yd to the Vandy 20Similar
Q1 10:42
2ND & 9
OPP 20
+11
14.2%
Harrison Bailey pass complete to Velus Jones Jr. for 11 yds to the Vandy 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+3
14.2%
Ty Chandler run for 3 yds to the Vandy 6Similar
Q1 5:54
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
14.4%
Harrison Bailey pass complete to Princeton Fant for 6 yds for a TD, (Toby Wilson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 5TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 4:0415% → 21%
Q1 5:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
15.0%
Keyon Henry-Brooks run for no gain to the Vandy 25Similar
Q1 5:54
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
15.0%
Ken Seals pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:54
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+13
14.8%
Ken Seals pass complete to Cam Johnson for 13 yds to the Vandy 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:54
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
15.2%
[SH], Henry-Brooks, K rush for 3 yards to the VANDY41 (Calloway,J.), PENALTY UT substitution infraction 5 yards to the VANDY43, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:54
1ST & 5
OWN 43
+19
15.5%
Ken Seals pass complete to Chris Pierce Jr. for 34 yds to the VANDERBILT 23 for a 1ST down VANDERBILT Penalty, personal foul (-15 Yards) to the Tenn 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:54
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+1
15.6%
Keyon Henry-Brooks run for 1 yd to the Tenn 37Similar
Q1 5:54
2ND & 9
OPP 37
+7
15.6%
Ken Seals pass complete to Cam Johnson for 7 yds to the Tenn 30Similar
Q1 5:54
3RD & 2
OPP 30
+2
15.6%
Keyon Henry-Brooks run for 2 yds to the Tenn 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:54
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
15.8%
Ken Seals pass incomplete to Chris Pierce Jr.Similar
Q1 5:54
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+6
15.8%
Ken Seals pass complete to Cam Johnson for 6 yds to the Tenn 22Similar
Q1 5:54
3RD & 4
OPP 22
+3
15.6%
Mitchell Pryor run for 3 yds to the Tenn 19Similar
Q1 5:54
4TH & 1
OPP 19
+1
15.4%
Mitchell Pryor run for 1 yd to the Tenn 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:50
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+18
20.5%
Ken Seals pass complete to Cam Johnson for 18 yds for a TD, (Sarah Fuller KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 6FUMBLE
7 plays · 61 yds · 1:5081% → 82%
Q1 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+26
18.8%
Harrison Bailey pass complete to Jalin Hyatt for 26 yds to the Vandy 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:50
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+15
17.9%
Harrison Bailey pass complete to Josh Palmer for 15 yds to the Vandy 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:50
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
17.7%
Harrison Bailey run for no gain to the Vandy 34Similar
Q1 1:50
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+22
17.7%
Brian Maurer run for 22 yds to the Vandy 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+4
18.5%
Eric Gray run for 4 yds to the Vandy 8Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 8
+12
18.5%
Harrison Bailey sacked by Andre Mintze for a loss of 6 yards to the Vandy 26 Harrison Bailey fumbled, recovered by Vandy Cameron Tidd , return for 0 yards , return for 12 yds to the Vandy 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 7FG
5 plays · 53 yds · 2:0821% → 24%
Q2 14:11
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+46
21.1%
Ken Seals pass complete to Amir Abdur-Rahman for 46 yds to the Tenn 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:11
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+2
22.5%
Keyon Henry-Brooks run for 2 yds to the Tenn 26Similar
Q2 14:11
2ND & 8
OPP 26
+1
22.5%
Keyon Henry-Brooks run for 1 yd to the Tenn 25Similar
Q2 14:11
3RD & 7
OPP 25
+4
22.0%
Ken Seals pass complete to Chris Pierce Jr. for 4 yds to the Tenn 21Similar
Q2 12:03
4TH & 3
OPP 21
+39
23.6%
Pierson Cooke 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 8PUNT
9 plays · 36 yds · 0:0076% → 77%
Q2 12:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
23.6%
J.T. Shrout pass incomplete to Henry To'o To'oSimilar
Q2 12:03
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
23.6%
Ty Chandler run for 4 yds to the Tenn 29Similar
Q2 12:03
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
23.9%
J.T. Shrout pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:03
4TH & 6
OWN 29
+31
24.5%
Paxton Brooks pass complete to Henry To'o To'o for 31 yds to the Vandy 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:03
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+1
22.2%
Kenney Solomon run for 1 yd to the Vandy 39Similar
Q2 12:03
2ND & 9
OPP 39
0
22.2%
J.T. Shrout pass incomplete to Cedric TillmanSimilar
Q2 12:03
3RD & 9
OPP 39
0
22.4%
J.T. Shrout pass incomplete to Josh Palmer, broken up by Gabe Jeudy-LallySimilar
Q2 12:03
4TH & 9
OPP 39
0
23.5%
Paxton Brooks punt for 29 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Vandy 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 9INT TD
3 plays · 6 yds · 1:0325% → 21%
Q2 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+2
25.1%
Keyon Henry-Brooks run for 2 yds to the Vandy 12Similar
Q2 9:40
2ND & 8
OWN 12
+4
25.0%
Ken Seals pass complete to Cam Johnson for 4 yds to the Vandy 16Similar
Q2 8:37
3RD & 4
OWN 16
-18
20.6%
Ken Seals pass intercepted for a TD Bryce Thompson return for 18 yds for a TD, (Toby Wilson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · -16 yds · 0:0021% → 20%
Q2 8:32
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
21.3%
Keyon Henry-Brooks run for no gain to the Vandy 19Similar
Q2 8:32
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+3
21.2%
Ken Seals pass complete to Keyon Henry-Brooks for 3 yds to the Vandy 22Similar
Q2 8:32
3RD & 7
OWN 22
-14
20.6%
Ken Seals sacked by Matthew Butler for a loss of 14 yards to the Vandy 3 Ken Seals fumbled, recovered by Vandy Bradley Ashmore , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q2 8:32
4TH & 26
OWN 3
+5
20.1%
Harrison Smith punt for 43 yds , Eric Gray returns for 5 yds to the Vandy 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 11TD
3 plays · 41 yds · 0:4080% → 85%
Q2 6:32
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+8
20.0%
J.T. Shrout pass complete to Velus Jones Jr. for 8 yds to the Vandy 33Similar
Q2 6:32
2ND & 2
OPP 33
+10
19.5%
Eric Gray run for 10 yds to the Vandy 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:52
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+23
15.0%
J.T. Shrout pass complete to Velus Jones Jr. for 23 yds for a TD, (Toby Wilson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 12PUNT
8 plays · 14 yds · 0:0016% → 15%
Q2 5:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
15.5%
Ken Seals pass complete to Chris Pierce Jr. for 7 yds to the Vandy 32Similar
Q2 5:52
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+2
16.0%
Keyon Henry-Brooks run for 2 yds to the Vandy 34Similar
Q2 5:52
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
15.6%
Keyon Henry-Brooks run for 2 yds to the Vandy 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:52
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-13
15.8%
Ken Seals sacked by Darel Middleton for a loss of 13 yards to the Vandy 23 VANDERBILT Penalty, intentional grounding (Ken Seals) to the Vandy 23Similar
Q2 5:52
2ND & 23
OWN 23
+16
15.4%
Ken Seals pass complete to Keyon Henry-Brooks for 16 yds to the Vandy 39Similar
Q2 5:52
3RD & 7
OWN 39
0
15.6%
Ken Seals pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:52
4TH & 7
OWN 39
0
15.1%
Harrison Smith punt for 16 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Tenn 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 13PUNT
8 plays · 3 yds · 0:0084% → 85%
Q2 3:52
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+18
15.6%
J.T. Shrout pass complete to Velus Jones Jr. for 18 yds to the Vandy 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:52
2ND & 2
OPP 47
0
15.0%
J.T. Shrout pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:52
3RD & 2
OPP 47
-5
15.3%
TENNESSEE Penalty, false start (Cooper Mays) to the Tenn 48Similar
Q2 3:52
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+8
15.1%
J.T. Shrout pass complete to Velus Jones Jr. for 8 yds to the Vandy 47Similar
Q2 3:52
3RD & 7
OWN 48
0
15.2%
J.T. Shrout pass incomplete to Velus Jones Jr., broken up by Allan GeorgeSimilar
Q2 3:52
4TH & 7
OWN 48
0
15.8%
Paxton Brooks punt for 48 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Vandy 4Similar
Q2 3:52
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+18
15.6%
J.T. Shrout pass complete to Velus Jones Jr. for 18 yds to the Vandy 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:52
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+8
15.1%
J.T. Shrout pass complete to Velus Jones Jr. for 8 yds to the Vandy 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0015% → 15%
Q2 3:07
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+2
15.4%
Keyon Henry-Brooks run for 2 yds to the Vandy 6Similar
Q2 3:07
2ND & 8
OWN 6
+3
15.4%
Keyon Henry-Brooks run for 3 yds to the Vandy 9Similar
Q2 3:07
3RD & 5
OWN 9
0
14.9%
Ken Seals pass incomplete to Chris Pierce Jr., broken up by Henry To'o To'oSimilar
Q2 3:07
4TH & 5
OWN 9
+57
14.6%
Harrison Smith punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Eric Gray at the VANDERBILT 44 TENNESSEE Penalty, Offensive holding (Jeremy Banks) to the Tenn 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 15TD
6 plays · 66 yds · 1:0384% → 93%
Q2 1:47
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+20
15.7%
J.T. Shrout pass complete to Josh Palmer for 20 yds to the Vandy 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:47
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+5
14.8%
J.T. Shrout pass complete to Jalin Hyatt for 5 yds to the Vandy 41Similar
Q2 1:47
2ND & 5
OPP 41
+15
14.7%
[SH], Shrout,J. sacked for loss of 2 yards to the VANDY43 (Orji, Anfernee), PENALTY VANDY face mask (Orji, Anfernee) 15 yards to the VANDY26, 1ST DOWN UT, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:47
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
14.6%
Eric Gray run for no gain to the Vandy 26Similar
Q2 0:44
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+26
7.4%
J.T. Shrout pass complete to Jalin Hyatt for 26 yds for a TD, (Toby Wilson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 16MISSED FG
10 plays · 39 yds · 0:4410% → 11%
Q2 0:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
10.2%
Keyon Henry-Brooks run for 17 yds to the Vandy 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:44
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
10.9%
Ken Seals pass incomplete to Cam JohnsonSimilar
Q2 0:44
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+13
10.8%
Ken Seals run for 13 yds to the Tenn 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:17
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+5
10.7%
Ken Seals pass complete to Cam Johnson for 5 yds to the Tenn 40Similar
Q2 0:17
2ND & 5
OPP 40
0
10.9%
Ken Seals pass incomplete to Amir Abdur-Rahman, broken up by Warren BurrellSimilar
Q2 0:17
3RD & 5
OPP 40
+4
10.6%
Keyon Henry-Brooks run for 4 yds to the Tenn 36Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 1
OPP 36
+54
11.3%
Pierson Cooke 54 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 17TD
7 plays · 72 yds · 2:0392% → 98%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+25
8.3%
Harrison Bailey pass complete to Jalin Hyatt for 25 yds to the Vandy 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+9
7.8%
Harrison Bailey pass complete to Josh Palmer for 9 yds to the Vandy 38Similar
Q3 14:53
2ND & 1
OPP 38
+18
7.5%
Ty Chandler run for 18 yds to the Vandy 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+5
7.4%
Ty Chandler run for 5 yds to the Vandy 15Similar
Q3 14:53
2ND & 5
OPP 15
-5
7.4%
TENNESSEE Penalty, false start (Omari Thomas) to the Vandy 20Similar
Q3 12:50
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+20
2.5%
Ty Chandler run for 20 yds for a TD, (Toby Wilson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 18PUNT
6 plays · 14 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q3 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
2.0%
Ken Seals pass complete to Amir Abdur-Rahman for 14 yds to the Vandy 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-6
2.1%
Keyon Henry-Brooks run for a loss of 6 yards to the Vandy 33Similar
Q3 12:50
2ND & 16
OWN 33
+6
1.8%
Keyon Henry-Brooks run for 6 yds to the Vandy 39Similar
Q3 12:50
3RD & 10
OWN 39
0
2.0%
Ken Seals pass incomplete to Cam Johnson, broken up by Tamarion McDonaldSimilar
Q3 12:50
4TH & 10
OWN 39
0
2.0%
Harrison Smith punt for 42 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Tenn 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 19DOWNS
15 plays · 42 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q3 11:08
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
2.2%
Harrison Bailey pass complete to Velus Jones Jr. for no gain to the Tenn 19Similar
Q3 11:08
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+4
2.2%
Jabari Small run for 4 yds to the Tenn 23Similar
Q3 11:08
3RD & 6
OWN 23
-6
2.3%
Harrison Bailey pass complete to Jabari Small for 9 yds to the Tenn 32 TENNESSEE Penalty, personal foul (Darnell Wright) to the Tenn 17Similar
Q3 11:08
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+13
2.2%
Jabari Small run for 13 yds to the Tenn 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:08
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+9
2.2%
Harrison Bailey pass complete to Eric Gray for 9 yds to the Tenn 39Similar
Q3 11:08
2ND & 1
OWN 39
+3
2.1%
Eric Gray run for 3 yds to the Tenn 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:08
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+1
2.1%
Eric Gray run for 1 yd to the Tenn 43Similar
Q3 11:08
2ND & 9
OWN 43
+14
2.1%
Harrison Bailey pass complete to Jimmy Calloway for 14 yds to the Vandy 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:08
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-10
2.0%
J.T. Shrout sacked by Anfernee Orji for a loss of 10 yards to the Tenn 47Similar
Q3 11:08
2ND & 20
OWN 47
+5
2.1%
[SH], Gray,E. rush for 12 yards to the VANDY41 (Orji, Anfernee;Orji, Alston), PENALTY VANDY offside 5 yards to the VANDY48, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:08
2ND & 15
OPP 48
-3
2.1%
Harrison Bailey run for 7 yds to the Tenn 41 TENNESSEE Penalty, illegal block (Jahmir Johnson) to the Tenn 49Similar
Q3 11:08
2ND & 18
OWN 49
+13
2.1%
Eric Gray run for 13 yds to the Vandy 38Similar
Q3 11:08
3RD & 5
OPP 38
-1
2.1%
Eric Gray run for 9 yds to the Vandy 29 TENNESSEE Penalty, illegal block (-10 Yards) to the Vandy 39Similar
Q3 11:08
3RD & 6
OPP 39
0
2.1%
Harrison Bailey pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:08
4TH & 6
OPP 39
0
2.2%
Harrison Bailey pass incomplete to Josh PalmerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 12 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q3 3:21
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+11
1.0%
Ken Seals pass complete to Cam Johnson for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:21
1ST & 10
50
0
1.0%
Ken Seals pass incomplete to Chris Pierce Jr.Similar
Q3 3:21
2ND & 10
50
+1
1.0%
Ken Seals pass complete to Mitchell Pryor for 1 yd to the Tenn 49Similar
Q3 3:21
3RD & 9
OPP 49
0
1.0%
Ken Seals pass incomplete to Chris Pierce Jr.Similar
Q3 3:21
4TH & 9
OPP 49
0
1.0%
Harrison Smith punt for 27 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Tenn 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · -9 yds · 1:2999% → 100%
Q3 2:12
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+1
0.8%
Eric Gray run for 1 yd to the Tenn 23Similar
Q3 2:12
2ND & 9
OWN 23
0
0.8%
Harrison Bailey pass incomplete to Cedric TillmanSimilar
Q3 2:12
3RD & 9
OWN 23
-10
0.9%
Harrison Bailey sacked by Nate Clifton for a loss of 10 yards to the Tenn 13Similar
Q3 0:43
4TH & 19
OWN 13
0
0.5%
Paxton Brooks punt for 54 yds, fair catch by Cam Johnson at the Vandy 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 22DOWNS
10 plays · 15 yds · 3:171% → 1%
Q3 0:36
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+1
0.5%
Ken Seals pass complete to Ben Bresnahan for 1 yd to the Vandy 34Similar
Q3 0:36
2ND & 9
OWN 34
+8
0.5%
Rocko Griffin run for 8 yds to the Vandy 42Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 42
0
0.5%
Rocko Griffin run for no gain to the Vandy 42Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 42
+3
0.5%
Rocko Griffin run for 3 yds to the Vandy 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+9
0.5%
Ken Seals pass complete to Amir Abdur-Rahman for 9 yds to the Tenn 46Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 46
0
0.5%
Rocko Griffin run for no gain to the Tenn 46Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 46
-1
0.5%
Rocko Griffin run for a loss of 1 yard to the Tenn 47Similar
Q4 12:19
4TH & 2
OPP 47
-5
0.5%
VANDERBILT Penalty, false start (Cam Johnson) to the Vandy 48Similar
Q4 12:19
4TH & 7
OWN 48
0
0.5%
Ken Seals pass incomplete to Chris Pierce Jr., broken up by Key LawrenceSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 23INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 12:15
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-30
0.4%
J.T. Shrout pass intercepted Gabe Jeudy-Lally return for 30 yds to the Tenn 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 24PUNT
5 plays · -9 yds · 0:001% → 0%
Q4 12:04
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-10
0.5%
[SH], Henry-Brooks, K rush for 5 yards to the UT30 (Butler,M.), PENALTY VANDY holding (Cox, Ben) 10 yards to the UT45, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:04
1ST & 20
OPP 45
+1
0.4%
Ken Seals pass complete to Ben Bresnahan for 1 yd to the Tenn 44Similar
Q4 12:04
2ND & 19
OPP 44
0
0.4%
Ken Seals pass complete to Keyon Henry-Brooks for no gain to the Tenn 44Similar
Q4 12:04
3RD & 19
OPP 44
0
0.4%
Ken Seals pass incomplete to Amir Abdur-Rahman, broken up by Alontae TaylorSimilar
Q4 12:04
4TH & 19
OPP 44
+4
0.4%
Harrison Smith punt for 37 yds , Eric Gray returns for 4 yds to the Tenn 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 25PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 11
0
0.3%
Ty Chandler run for no gain to the Tenn 11Similar
Q4 10:15
2ND & 10
OWN 11
+2
0.3%
Ty Chandler run for 2 yds to the Tenn 13Similar
Q4 10:15
3RD & 8
OWN 13
0
0.4%
Harrison Bailey pass incomplete to Ty Chandler, broken up by Andre MintzeSimilar
Q4 10:15
4TH & 8
OWN 13
+46
0.4%
Paxton Brooks punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Cam Johnson at the VANDERBILT 41 VANDERBILT Penalty, roughing the kicker ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 26TD
6 plays · 59 yds · 1:210% → 4%
Q4 8:43
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
0.4%
Ken Seals pass incomplete to Keyon Henry-Brooks, broken up by Henry To'o To'oSimilar
Q4 8:43
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+17
0.4%
Keyon Henry-Brooks run for 17 yds to the Tenn 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:43
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-10
0.4%
[SH], Seals, Ken pass incomplete to Henry-Brooks, K, PENALTY VANDY holding (Bresnahan, Ben) 10 yards to the VANDY48, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:43
1ST & 20
OWN 48
+20
0.3%
Ken Seals pass complete to Ben Bresnahan for 20 yds to the Tenn 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:43
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+16
0.4%
Keyon Henry-Brooks run for 1 yd to the Tenn 31 for a 1ST down TENNESSEE Penalty, substitution infraction (15 Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:22
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
4.4%
Ken Seals pass complete to Ben Bresnahan for 16 yds for a TD, (Sarah Fuller KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 27TD
2 plays · 74 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 7:03
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+74
0.2%
Harrison Bailey pass complete to Velus Jones Jr. for 74 yds for a TD, (Toby Wilson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 28PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 7:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
0.3%
Ken Seals pass incomplete to Amir Abdur-RahmanSimilar
Q4 7:03
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
0.3%
Mitchell Pryor run for 2 yds to the Vandy 27Similar
Q4 7:03
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+3
0.3%
Ken Seals pass complete to Jayden Harrison for 3 yds to the Vandy 30Similar
Q4 7:03
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
0.3%
Harrison Smith punt for 56 yds, downed at the Tenn 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 29END OF GAME
9 plays · 67 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+13
0.2%
Eric Gray run for 13 yds to the Tenn 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+8
0.2%
Eric Gray run for 8 yds to the Tenn 35Similar
Q4 5:40
2ND & 2
OWN 35
+5
0.2%
Jabari Small run for 5 yds to the Tenn 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+17
0.2%
Jabari Small run for 17 yds to the Vandy 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:40
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+12
0.2%
Dee Beckwith run for 12 yds to the Vandy 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:40
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-9
0.2%
[SH], Beckwith,D. rush for 6 yards to the VANDY25 (Orji, Anfernee;Harris, Brendon), PENALTY UT holding (Spraggins,J.) 9 yards to the VANDY40, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:40
1ST & 19
OPP 40
+12
0.2%
Dee Beckwith run for 12 yds to the Vandy 28Similar
Q4 5:40
2ND & 7
OPP 28
+5
0.2%
Jabari Small run for 5 yds to the Vandy 23Similar
Q4 5:40
3RD & 2
OPP 23
+4
0.2%
Jabari Small run for 4 yds to the Vandy 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:44
J.T. Shrout pass complete to Jalin Hyatt for 26 yds for a TD, (Toby Wilson KICK)
-7.4
TD · Q1 1:50
Ken Seals pass complete to Cam Johnson for 18 yds for a TD, (Sarah Fuller KICK)
+5.1
TD · Q3 12:50
Ty Chandler run for 20 yds for a TD, (Toby Wilson KICK)
-5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com