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Win probability · MIZ
modelMIZ aheadUGA aheadconfidence bandkey playMIZ scoreUGA score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 7:03 · Grant McKinniss punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Kearis Jackson at the Geo 11
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 13:59: Connor Bazelak run for 2 yds for a TD (Harrison Mevis KICK) — MIZ win probability +4.1 pts (now 22%) (top driver: MIZ has the ball).
- TD · Q2 1:20: Larry Rountree III run for 1 yd for a TD (Harrison Mevis KICK) — MIZ win probability +11.1 pts (now 37%) (top driver: MIZ has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:37: JT Daniels pass complete to George Pickens for 36 yds for a TD (Jack Podlesny KICK) — UGA win probability +9.9 pts (now 81%) (top driver: UGA has the ball).
- TD · Q3 12:49: JT Daniels pass complete to George Pickens for 31 yds for a TD (Jack Podlesny KICK) — UGA win probability +6.9 pts (now 88%) (top driver: UGA has the ball).
- TD · Q3 8:35: Zamir White run for 43 yds for a TD (Jack Podlesny KICK) — UGA win probability +6.1 pts (now 95%) (top driver: UGA has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
MIZ made the numbers' call on 7 of 8UGA made the numbers' call on 3 of 5
- Q1 7:03MIZ 4th & 8 at UGA 48, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.1% before the snapGo for it21.1%−0.134% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call21.2%average punt
- Q2 11:51UGA 4th & 19 at UGA 45, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.5% before the snapGo for it75.8%−1.211% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call77.0%average punt
- Q2 9:18MIZ 4th & 9 at MIZ 32, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.8% before the snapGo for it22.2%−1.131% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call23.3%average punt
- Q2 4:50UGA 4th & 8 at MIZ 43, up 7Close callPunted · 77.3% before the snapGo for it77.1%34% to convertField goal76.4%−0.728% to makePuntTheir call76.8%−0.3average punt
- Q2 2:50MIZ 4th & 10 at MIZ 34, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.8% before the snapGo for it22.1%−0.829% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call22.9%average punt
- Q2 2:14UGA 4th & 10 at UGA 18, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.1% before the snapGo for it74.5%−1.228% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call75.7%average punt
- Q3 11:17MIZ 4th & 15 at UGA 47, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.5% before the snapGo for it15.0%−1.117% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call16.2%average punt
- Q3 7:20MIZ 4th & 8 at MIZ 27, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.6% before the snapGo for it6.6%−0.833% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call7.3%average punt
- Q3 4:11MIZ 4th & 2 at MIZ 33, down 28Close callPunted · 1.5% before the snapGo for it1.6%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.6%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 12:36MIZ 4th & 3 at MIZ 32, down 35Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snapGo for it0.4%−<0.152% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.4%average punt
- Q4 7:56UGA 4th & 5 at MIZ 25, up 35Close callKicked a field goal · 99.7% before the snapGo for it99.7%41% to convertField goalTheir call99.7%−<0.166% to makePunt99.3%−0.4average punt
- Q4 5:36MIZ 4th & 8 at MIZ 42, down 35Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.2%−<0.134% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q4 2:16UGA 4th & 3 at MIZ 40, up 35Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.8%52% to convertField goal99.7%−0.134% to makePunt99.7%−0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MIZ made the numbers' call on 2 of 2UGA made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
- Q1 11:56UGA Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call79.6%97% to makeGo for two79.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 2:40UGA Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call80.5%97% to makeGo for two80.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 13:59MIZ Touchdown, down 8 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call22.5%97% to makeGo for two22.5%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 1:20MIZ Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call32.8%97% to makeGo for two32.6%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:37UGA Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call74.9%97% to makeGo for two74.8%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 12:49UGA Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call82.6%97% to makeGo for two82.5%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 8:35UGA Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call92.7%97% to makeGo for two92.6%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 5:54UGA Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.7%97% to makeGo for two98.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 14:46UGA Touchdown, up 34 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.7%97% to makeGo for two99.7%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartMIZDrive 1INT3 plays · 0 yds · 0:1816% → 16%
UGADrive 2TD6 plays · 23 yds · 2:1884% → 83%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 3PUNT10 plays · 27 yds · 4:3517% → 18%
Q1 11:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
16.9%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Jalen Knox for 8 yds to the Misso 33Similar
Q1 11:11
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+5
17.1%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Larry Rountree III for 5 yds to the Misso 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-1
17.2%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Daniel Parker Jr. for a loss of 1 yard to the Misso 37Similar
Q1 9:33
3RD & 8
OWN 40
+10
17.5%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Jalen Knox for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:28
2ND & 10
50
+1
18.0%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Barrett Banister for 1 yd to the Geo 49Similar
Q1 7:03
4TH & 8
OPP 48
0
18.0%
Grant McKinniss punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Kearis Jackson at the Geo 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 4TD8 plays · 89 yds · 4:0682% → 84%
Q1 6:15
2ND & 6
OWN 15
+7
18.1%
JT Daniels pass complete to George Pickens for 7 yds to the Geo 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:22
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+2
18.2%
JT Daniels pass complete to Jermaine Burton for 2 yds to the Misso 37Similar
Q1 2:40
3RD & 8
OPP 37
+37
15.6%
JT Daniels pass complete to James Cook for 37 yds for a TD (Jack Podlesny KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 5TD9 plays · 75 yds · 3:1316% → 22%
Q1 2:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
16.3%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to D'ionte Smith for 1 yd to the Misso 26Similar
Q1 1:55
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+21
16.3%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Larry Rountree III for 21 yds to the Misso 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:23
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+7
17.0%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Jalen Knox for 7 yds to the Geo 46Similar
Q1 0:30
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+9
17.1%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Damon Hazelton for 9 yds to the Geo 33Similar
Q2 14:14
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+29
17.6%
Keke Chism pass complete to Messiah Swinson for 29 yds to the Geo 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 6PUNT6 plays · 20 yds · 1:4980% → 79%
MIZDrive 7PUNT6 plays · 12 yds · 2:2021% → 20%
UGADrive 8PUNT10 plays · 31 yds · 4:1979% → 79%
MIZDrive 9FUMBLE8 plays · 14 yds · 1:4421% → 21%
Q2 3:18
3RD & 5
OWN 25
+9
21.3%
GEORGIA Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (9 Yards) to the Misso 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:50
4TH & 10
OWN 34
0
20.7%
Grant McKinniss punt for 36 yds , Kearis Jackson returns for no gain to the Geo 18 Kearis Jackson fumbled, recovered by Geo Zamir WhiteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 10PUNT4 plays · 0 yds · 0:3180% → 78%
Q2 2:14
4TH & 10
OWN 18
+4
21.8%
TEAM punt blocked by Mason Pack blocked by Mason Pack Will Norris return for 4 yds to the Geo 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 11TD4 plays · 1 yds · 0:2526% → 37%
Q2 1:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
25.7%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Tyler Badie for a loss of 1 yard to the Geo 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 12TD7 plays · 75 yds · 0:3769% → 81%
Q2 1:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
31.0%
JT Daniels pass complete to Jermaine Burton for no gain to the Geo 25Similar
Q2 1:06
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+12
32.0%
JT Daniels pass complete to Kearis Jackson for 12 yds to the Geo 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+11
30.4%
JT Daniels pass complete to Jermaine Burton for 11 yds to the Geo 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:44
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+16
28.9%
JT Daniels pass complete to Jermaine Burton for 16 yds to the Misso 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:37
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+36
19.0%
JT Daniels pass complete to George Pickens for 36 yds for a TD (Jack Podlesny KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 13END OF HALF2 plays · -4 yds · 0:0023% → 23%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 14TD6 plays · 75 yds · 1:5479% → 88%
Q3 12:49
3RD & 10
OPP 31
+31
12.3%
JT Daniels pass complete to George Pickens for 31 yds for a TD (Jack Podlesny KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 15PUNT7 plays · 28 yds · 1:1714% → 14%
Q3 12:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+33
13.9%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Damon Hazelton for 33 yds to the Geo 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 16TD6 plays · 80 yds · 2:3687% → 95%
MIZDrive 17PUNT6 plays · 2 yds · 0:586% → 6%
UGADrive 18TD5 plays · 71 yds · 1:0196% → 98%
Q3 6:55
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+36
4.3%
JT Daniels pass complete to Darnell Washington for 36 yds to the Misso 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:40
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+15
3.3%
Daniels, JT pass incomplete to Washington, Darnell, PENALTY MISSOURI pass interference 15 yards to the MISSOURI20, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN GEORGIA.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 19PUNT5 plays · 8 yds · 1:333% → 3%
UGADrive 20TD10 plays · 79 yds · 4:1098% → 100%
MIZDrive 21PUNT5 plays · 7 yds · 1:320% → 0%
UGADrive 22MISSED FG8 plays · 56 yds · 4:29100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 23PUNT5 plays · 16 yds · 1:440% → 0%
Q4 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+14
0.2%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Keke Chism for 14 yds to the Misso 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:06
3RD & 11
OWN 39
+3
0.1%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Larry Rountree III for 3 yds to the Misso 42Similar
Q4 5:36
4TH & 8
OWN 42
+14
0.1%
Grant McKinniss punt for 44 yds , Jermaine Burton returns for 14 yds to the Geo 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 24DOWNS6 plays · 31 yds · 2:59100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 25Uncategorized4 plays · 18 yds · 1:280% → 0%
Q4 1:00
3RD & 6
OWN 45
+9
0.1%
Brady Cook pass complete to Tauskie Dove for 9 yds to the Geo 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 1:20
Larry Rountree III run for 1 yd for a TD (Harrison Mevis KICK)
+11.1
TD · Q2 0:37
JT Daniels pass complete to George Pickens for 36 yds for a TD (Jack Podlesny KICK)
-9.9
TD · Q3 12:49
JT Daniels pass complete to George Pickens for 31 yds for a TD (Jack Podlesny KICK)
-6.9