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WAKE

Wake Forest 21 at Louisville 45

LOU
2020 · Week 15 · Dec 12, 2020 · L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium
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Win probability · LOU
modelLOU aheadWAKE aheadconfidence bandkey playLOU scoreWAKE score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDTDFGTDTDFGTDEnd of GameFG-3.4LOU 87.0%Nick Sciba 31 yd FG GOODAWAY 13 - HOME 28 · Q3 5:26
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 5:26 · Nick Sciba 31 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+33.5+16.80−16.8−33.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 127Home team on offense+14.6Pregame prior+5.1Score differential+5.6Garbage-time factor+3.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+4.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−1.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 4:09: Malik Cunningham run for 5 yds for a TD (James Turner KICK) — LOU win probability +7.7 pts (now 69%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 1:04: Hassan Hall run for 1 yd for a TD (James Turner KICK) — LOU win probability +8.6 pts (now 80%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 8:03: Malik Cunningham pass complete to Francis Sherman for 4 yds for a TD (James Turner KICK) — LOU win probability +13.4 pts (now 93%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 13:24: Sam Hartman pass complete to Jaquarii Roberson for 37 yds for a TD S Hartman kick attempt failed, PENALTY LOU holding (Hayes, I.) 2 yards to the LOU1, NO PLAY. (Sam Hartman pass to Jaquarii Roberson for Two-Point Conversion) — WAKE win probability +12.5 pts (now 20%) (top driver: WAKE has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 7:17: Jordan Watkins run for 23 yds for a TD (James Turner KICK) — LOU win probability +8.4 pts (now 97%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
LOU made the numbers' call on 5 of 7WAKE made the numbers' call on 6 of 10
  1. Q1 15:00WAKE 4th & 5 at LOU 41, tied
    Close callPunted · 41.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.8%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    41.7%−0.1
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    41.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:40LOU 4th & 4 at LOU 26, tied
    Close callWent for it · 58.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    58.1%−<0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    58.1%
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:04LOU 4th & 13 at LOU 22, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.0%−0.6
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.6%
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:07WAKE 4th & 9 at WAKE 41, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.0%−0.4
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.4%
    average punt
  5. Q1 5:24LOU 4th & 10 at LOU 49, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.5%−0.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.7%
    average punt
  6. Q1 3:04WAKE 4th & 2 at WAKE 20, up 7
    Close callPunted · 45.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.7%−0.3
    average punt
  7. Q1 1:47LOU 4th & 22 at LOU 30, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.9%−1.7
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.6%
    average punt
  8. Q2 15:00WAKE 4th & 8 at WAKE 34, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.4%−0.7
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.0%
    average punt
  9. Q2 13:44LOU 4th & 13 at LOU 17, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.5%−1.7
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.3%
    average punt
  10. Q2 12:25WAKE 4th & 8 at LOU 43, up 7
    Close callPunted · 49.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.8%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    49.2%−0.6
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    49.7%−0.1
    average punt
  11. Q2 4:57WAKE 4th & 10 at LOU 27, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 44.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.3%−0.6
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    43.9%
    62% to make
    Punt
    39.5%−4.4
    average punt
  12. Q2 1:04WAKE 4th & 10 at WAKE 30, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.3%−0.8
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.1%
    average punt
  13. Q3 5:26WAKE 4th & 8 at LOU 13, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 9.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.9%−0.8
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    8.7%
    85% to make
    Punt
    2.0%−6.7
    average punt
  14. Q3 5:26LOU 4th & 5 at WAKE 14, up 15
    Close callWent for it · 90.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    89.3%−0.4
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    89.7%
    84% to make
    Punt
    83.2%−6.5
    average punt
  15. Q4 13:24WAKE 4th & 2 at LOU 37, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 8.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    7.3%−1.6
    40% to make
    Punt
    6.9%−2.0
    average punt
  16. Q4 5:36LOU 4th & 12 at WAKE 23, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 96.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.3%−0.7
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    95.9%
    70% to make
    Punt
    93.4%−2.5
    average punt
  17. Q4 5:36WAKE 4th & 10 at WAKE 25, down 17
    Close callWent for it · 2.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.3%−0.3
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.6%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
LOU made the numbers' call on 4 of 6WAKE made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 8:04WAKE Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 6:46LOU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 4:09LOU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 1:04LOU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 8:03LOU Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 13:24WAKE Touchdown, down 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · converted
    Kick
    18.0%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    18.1%
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 7:17LOU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.6%−0.3
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.9%
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 2:17LOU Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.5%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.6%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
WAKEDrive 1PUNT
11 plays · 35 yds · 0:0035% → 35%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+1
65.1%
Christian Beal-Smith run for 1 yd to the WFrst 25Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 25
+3
65.1%
Christian Beal-Smith run for 3 yds to the WFrst 28Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 28
+8
65.1%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Jaquarii Roberson for 8 yds to the WFrst 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
65.1%
Christian Beal-Smith run for 7 yds to the WFrst 43Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 43
-2
65.1%
Christian Beal-Smith run for a loss of 2 yards to the WFrst 41Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 41
+13
65.1%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Taylor Morin for 13 yds to the Lvile 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+2
65.1%
Christian Beal-Smith run for 2 yds to the Lvile 44Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 44
+3
65.1%
Christian Beal-Smith run for 3 yds to the Lvile 41Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 41
0
65.1%
Sam Hartman pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 5
OPP 41
0
65.1%
Ivan Mora punt for 21 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Lvile 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 2DOWNS
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0065% → 65%
Q1 11:40
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-18
64.9%
Malik Cunningham run for a loss of 18 yards to the Lvile 2Similar
Q1 11:40
2ND & 28
OWN 2
+11
64.9%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Francis Sherman for 11 yds to the Lvile 13Similar
Q1 11:40
3RD & 17
OWN 13
+13
64.6%
Malik Cunningham run for 13 yds to the Lvile 26Similar
Q1 11:40
4TH & 4
OWN 26
-2
64.6%
Ryan Harwell run for a loss of 2 yards to the Lvile 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 3TD
4 plays · 24 yds · 1:4936% → 39%
Q1 9:53
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+11
63.9%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Jaquarii Roberson for 11 yds to the Lvile 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:53
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+2
63.9%
Christian Beal-Smith run for 2 yds to the Lvile 11Similar
Q1 9:53
2ND & 8
OPP 11
+1
63.9%
Christian Beal-Smith run for 1 yd to the Lvile 10Similar
Q1 8:04
3RD & 7
OPP 10
+10
61.2%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Taylor Morin for 10 yds for a TD (Nick Sciba KICK) LOUISVILLE Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 0:0062% → 62%
Q1 8:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
62.0%
Jalen Mitchell run for no gain to the Lvile 25Similar
Q1 8:04
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
61.9%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Dez Fitzpatrick for 4 yds to the Lvile 29Similar
Q1 8:04
3RD & 6
OWN 29
-7
61.8%
Malik Cunningham sacked by Miles Fox for a loss of 7 yards to the Lvile 22Similar
Q1 8:04
4TH & 13
OWN 22
0
61.5%
Ryan Harwell punt for 38 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the WFrst 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0040% → 39%
Q1 6:07
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
60.1%
Sam Hartman pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:07
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+1
60.3%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Jaquarii Roberson for 1 yd to the WFrst 41Similar
Q1 6:07
3RD & 9
OWN 41
0
60.4%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Taylor MorinSimilar
Q1 6:07
4TH & 9
OWN 41
0
61.0%
Ivan Mora punt for 28 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Lvile 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · 18 yds · 0:0061% → 61%
Q1 5:24
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+3
60.8%
Jalen Mitchell run for 3 yds to the Lvile 34Similar
Q1 5:24
2ND & 7
OWN 34
+15
60.8%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Dez Fitzpatrick for 15 yds to the Lvile 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:24
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+1
61.5%
Jalen Mitchell run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 5:24
2ND & 9
50
-1
61.6%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Dez Fitzpatrick for a loss of 1 yard to the Lvile 49Similar
Q1 5:24
3RD & 10
OWN 49
0
60.8%
Malik Cunningham pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:24
4TH & 10
OWN 49
0
60.5%
Ryan Harwell punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Taylor Morin at the WFrst 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0041% → 40%
Q1 3:04
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+4
59.3%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Jaquarii Roberson for 4 yds to the WFrst 16Similar
Q1 3:04
2ND & 6
OWN 16
0
59.3%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Jaquarii RobersonSimilar
Q1 3:04
3RD & 6
OWN 16
+4
59.6%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Christian Beal-Smith for 4 yds to the WFrst 20Similar
Q1 3:04
4TH & 2
OWN 20
0
59.9%
Ivan Mora punt for 38 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · -12 yds · 0:0059% → 58%
Q1 1:47
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
59.4%
Malik Cunningham pass incomplete to Darius JonesSimilar
Q1 1:47
2ND & 10
OWN 42
-2
59.0%
Hassan Hall run for a loss of 2 yards to the Lvile 40Similar
Q1 1:47
3RD & 12
OWN 40
-10
58.3%
Malik Cunningham sacked by Ja'Cquez Williams for a loss of 10 yards to the Lvile 30Similar
Q1 1:47
4TH & 22
OWN 30
0
57.7%
Ryan Harwell punt for 58 yds, downed at the WFrst 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 9PUNT
7 plays · 22 yds · 0:0743% → 42%
Q1 0:07
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+8
57.5%
Justice Ellison run for 8 yds to the WFrst 20Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 20
-5
57.0%
WAKE FOREST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the WFrst 15Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 15
+17
57.4%
Justice Ellison run for 17 yds to the WFrst 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-10
56.8%
Sam Hartman sacked by Tabarius Peterson for a loss of 10 yards to the WFrst 34 Sam Hartman fumbled, , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 34
0
56.8%
Sam Hartman pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 34
0
57.4%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Taylor Morin, broken up by Monty MontgomerySimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 8
OWN 34
0
58.0%
Ivan Mora punt for 66 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · -3 yds · 0:0057% → 56%
Q2 13:44
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-5
56.9%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Lvile 15Similar
Q2 13:44
1ST & 15
OWN 15
-5
56.8%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Lvile 10Similar
Q2 13:44
1ST & 20
OWN 10
+5
56.8%
Jalen Mitchell run for 5 yds to the Lvile 15Similar
Q2 13:44
2ND & 15
OWN 15
+2
56.8%
Jalen Mitchell run for 2 yds to the Lvile 17Similar
Q2 13:44
3RD & 13
OWN 17
0
56.2%
Malik Cunningham pass incomplete to Dez FitzpatrickSimilar
Q2 13:44
4TH & 13
OWN 17
0
55.9%
Ryan Harwell punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Taylor Morin at the WFrst 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · 13 yds · 0:0046% → 45%
Q2 12:25
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
54.5%
Sam Hartman pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:25
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+11
54.7%
Christian Beal-Smith run for 11 yds to the Lvile 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:25
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
54.2%
Sam Hartman run for 2 yds to the Lvile 43Similar
Q2 12:25
2ND & 8
OPP 43
0
54.3%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete, broken up by Marlon CharacterSimilar
Q2 12:25
3RD & 8
OPP 43
0
54.6%
Sam Hartman pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:25
4TH & 8
OPP 43
0
55.5%
Ivan Mora punt for 43 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 12TD
10 plays · 80 yds · 4:3556% → 66%
Q2 11:21
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+14
55.7%
Hassan Hall run for 14 yds to the Lvile 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:21
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+11
56.0%
Malik Cunningham run for 11 yds to the Lvile 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:21
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-5
57.1%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Lvile 40Similar
Q2 11:21
1ST & 15
OWN 40
-5
56.1%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Lvile 35Similar
Q2 11:21
1ST & 20
OWN 35
+10
55.7%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Jordan Watkins for 10 yds to the Lvile 45Similar
Q2 11:21
2ND & 10
OWN 45
-1
56.5%
Hassan Hall run for a loss of 1 yard to the Lvile 44Similar
Q2 11:21
3RD & 11
OWN 44
+27
55.7%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Dez Fitzpatrick for 27 yds to the WFrst 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:21
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+28
58.7%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Dez Fitzpatrick for 28 yds to the WFrst 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
58.7%
Malik Cunningham run for a loss of 1 yard to the WFrst 2Similar
Q2 6:46
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
65.9%
Hassan Hall run for 2 yds for a TD (James Turner KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 13FG
10 plays · 43 yds · 1:4940% → 43%
Q2 6:46
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+18
59.8%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Jaquarii Roberson for 18 yds to the WFrst 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:46
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
58.1%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Taylor MorinSimilar
Q2 6:46
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+14
58.5%
Christian Beal-Smith run for 14 yds to the Lvile 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:46
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+5
57.7%
Christian Beal-Smith run for 5 yds to the Lvile 33Similar
Q2 6:46
2ND & 5
OPP 33
+6
56.9%
Christian Beal-Smith run for 6 yds to the Lvile 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:46
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
56.9%
Sam Hartman pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:46
2ND & 10
OPP 27
0
57.2%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Taylor MorinSimilar
Q2 6:46
3RD & 10
OPP 27
0
58.2%
Sam Hartman pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:57
4TH & 10
OPP 27
+45
56.6%
Nick Sciba 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 14TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 0:4858% → 69%
Q2 4:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+70
57.5%
Jalen Mitchell run for 70 yds to the WFrst 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
69.1%
Malik Cunningham run for 5 yds for a TD (James Turner KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 15INT
7 plays · 19 yds · 0:0036% → 37%
Q2 4:09
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-3
64.5%
Justice Ellison run for a loss of 3 yards to the WFrst 27Similar
Q2 4:09
2ND & 13
OWN 27
+9
65.4%
Justice Ellison run for 9 yds to the WFrst 36Similar
Q2 4:09
3RD & 4
OWN 36
+6
64.2%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Jaquarii Roberson for 6 yds to the WFrst 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:09
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
63.1%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Jaquarii Roberson, broken up by Dorian EtheridgeSimilar
Q2 4:09
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+7
63.7%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Brandon Chapman for 7 yds to the WFrst 49Similar
Q2 4:09
3RD & 3
OWN 49
-21
62.6%
Sam Hartman pass intercepted Russ Yeast return for 21 yds to the WFrst 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 16TD
6 plays · 37 yds · 1:2169% → 80%
Q2 2:25
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-2
69.3%
Hassan Hall run for a loss of 2 yards to the WFrst 39Similar
Q2 2:25
2ND & 12
OPP 39
+8
68.9%
Hassan Hall run for 8 yds to the WFrst 31Similar
Q2 2:25
3RD & 4
OPP 31
+29
68.7%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Braden Smith for 29 yds to the WFrst 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
69.5%
Hassan Hall run for 1 yd to the WFrst 1Similar
Q2 1:04
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
80.4%
Hassan Hall run for 1 yd for a TD (James Turner KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0021% → 20%
Q2 1:04
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
78.6%
Sam Hartman pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:04
2ND & 10
OWN 30
0
79.0%
Sam Hartman pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:04
3RD & 10
OWN 30
0
79.6%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Taylor MorinSimilar
Q2 1:04
4TH & 10
OWN 30
0
80.1%
Ivan Mora punt for 53 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Lvile 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 18END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0079% → 79%
Q2 0:27
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-1
79.0%
Jalen Mitchell run for a loss of 1 yard to the Lvile 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 19TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 6:5779% → 93%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
78.7%
Jalen Mitchell run for 7 yds to the Lvile 32Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+15
79.1%
Malik Cunningham run for 15 yds to the Lvile 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+8
79.8%
Jalen Mitchell run for 8 yds to the WFrst 45Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 45
+3
79.9%
Jalen Mitchell run for 3 yds to the WFrst 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+8
79.9%
Jalen Mitchell run for 8 yds to the WFrst 34Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 34
+3
79.9%
Jalen Mitchell run for 3 yds to the WFrst 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+2
79.9%
Jalen Mitchell run for 2 yds to the WFrst 29Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 29
+7
79.9%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Marshon Ford for 7 yds to the WFrst 22Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 22
+6
79.2%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Marshon Ford for 6 yds to the WFrst 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+10
79.9%
Malik Cunningham run for 10 yds to the WFrst 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
79.7%
Malik Cunningham run for 2 yds to the WFrst 4Similar
Q3 8:03
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
93.1%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Francis Sherman for 4 yds for a TD (James Turner KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 20FG
10 plays · 62 yds · 2:379% → 13%
Q3 8:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
90.9%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Jaquarii RobersonSimilar
Q3 8:03
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+14
90.9%
Sam Hartman pass complete to A.T. Perry for 14 yds to the WFrst 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:03
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
90.2%
Christian Beal-Smith run for 2 yds to the WFrst 41Similar
Q3 8:03
2ND & 8
OWN 41
+44
90.2%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Jaquarii Roberson for 44 yds to the LOUISVILLE 15 for a 1ST down LOUISVILLE Penalty, Defensive pass interference ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:03
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-5
88.9%
WAKE FOREST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Lvile 20Similar
Q3 8:03
1ST & 15
OPP 20
0
89.4%
Sam Hartman run for no gain to the Lvile 20Similar
Q3 8:03
2ND & 15
OPP 20
0
89.4%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Brandon ChapmanSimilar
Q3 8:03
3RD & 15
OPP 20
+7
90.4%
Sam Hartman run for 7 yds to the Lvile 13Similar
Q3 5:26
4TH & 8
OPP 13
+31
87.0%
Nick Sciba 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 21DOWNS
8 plays · 65 yds · 0:0091% → 91%
Q3 5:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
90.9%
Jalen Mitchell run for 6 yds to the Lvile 31Similar
Q3 5:26
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+3
91.1%
Jalen Mitchell run for 3 yds to the Lvile 34Similar
Q3 5:26
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+47
90.9%
Jalen Mitchell run for 47 yds to the WFrst 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:26
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+5
91.6%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Jordan Watkins for 5 yds to the WFrst 14Similar
Q3 5:26
2ND & 5
OPP 14
-4
91.6%
Jalen Mitchell run for a loss of 4 yards to the WFrst 18Similar
Q3 5:26
3RD & 9
OPP 18
+4
91.3%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Dez Fitzpatrick for 4 yds to the WFrst 14Similar
Q3 5:26
4TH & 5
OPP 14
+4
90.7%
Ryan Harwell pass complete to Francis Sherman for 4 yds to the WFrst 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 22TD
10 plays · 90 yds · 2:449% → 20%
Q3 1:08
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+4
91.2%
Justice Ellison run for 4 yds to the WFrst 14Similar
Q3 1:08
2ND & 6
OWN 14
+3
91.1%
Justice Ellison run for 3 yds to the WFrst 17Similar
Q3 1:08
3RD & 3
OWN 17
+7
91.3%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Blake Whiteheart for 7 yds to the WFrst 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:08
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+31
91.1%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Blake Whiteheart for 31 yds to the Lvile 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+3
90.6%
Justice Ellison run for 3 yds to the Lvile 42Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 42
+6
90.6%
Justice Ellison run for 6 yds to the Lvile 36Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 36
-4
90.3%
WAKE FOREST Penalty, false start (-4 Yards) to the Lvile 40Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 40
+3
90.8%
Justice Ellison run for 3 yds to the Lvile 37Similar
Q4 13:24
4TH & 2
OPP 37
+37
80.1%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Jaquarii Roberson for 37 yds for a TD S Hartman kick attempt failed, PENALTY LOU holding (Hayes, I.) 2 yards to the LOU1, NO PLAY. (Sam Hartman pass to Jaquarii Roberson for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 23TD
14 plays · 80 yds · 6:0786% → 97%
Q4 13:24
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
85.7%
Jalen Mitchell run for 2 yds to the Lvile 22Similar
Q4 13:24
2ND & 8
OWN 22
0
85.6%
Malik Cunningham pass incomplete to Dez FitzpatrickSimilar
Q4 13:24
3RD & 8
OWN 22
+11
84.9%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Braden Smith for 11 yds to the Lvile 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:24
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-5
86.0%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Lvile 28Similar
Q4 13:24
1ST & 15
OWN 28
+2
85.7%
Malik Cunningham run for 2 yds to the Lvile 30Similar
Q4 13:24
2ND & 13
OWN 30
0
85.6%
Malik Cunningham run for no gain to the Lvile 30Similar
Q4 13:24
3RD & 13
OWN 30
+15
84.7%
Cunningham, M. deep pass incomplete to Fitzpatrick, D., PENALTY WF pass interference (C Carson) 15 yards to the LOU45, 1ST DOWN LOU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 13:24
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+16
87.2%
Malik Cunningham run for 16 yds to the WFrst 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:24
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
87.6%
Hassan Hall run for no gain to the WFrst 39Similar
Q4 13:24
2ND & 10
OPP 39
0
87.5%
Malik Cunningham pass incomplete to Dez FitzpatrickSimilar
Q4 13:24
3RD & 10
OPP 39
+13
86.6%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Braden Smith for 13 yds to the WFrst 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:24
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+3
88.3%
Hassan Hall run for 3 yds to the WFrst 23Similar
Q4 7:17
2ND & 7
OPP 23
+23
96.7%
Jordan Watkins run for 23 yds for a TD (James Turner KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 25FG
5 plays · -2 yds · 1:3897% → 98%
Q4 7:14
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
96.7%
Malik Cunningham pass incomplete to Braden Smith, broken up by Ja'Sir TaylorSimilar
Q4 7:14
2ND & 10
OPP 21
-5
96.7%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, false start (Francis Sherman) to the WFrst 26Similar
Q4 7:14
2ND & 15
OPP 26
+1
96.5%
Hassan Hall run for 1 yd to the WFrst 25Similar
Q4 7:14
3RD & 14
OPP 25
+2
96.5%
Hassan Hall run for 2 yds to the WFrst 23Similar
Q4 5:36
4TH & 12
OPP 23
+40
97.6%
James Turner 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 26DOWNS
8 plays · 12 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q4 5:36
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
97.3%
Sam Hartman pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:36
2ND & 10
OWN 13
+9
97.3%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Jaquarii Roberson for 9 yds to the WFrst 22Similar
Q4 5:36
3RD & 1
OWN 22
+3
97.1%
Christian Beal-Smith run for 3 yds to the WFrst 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
97.2%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Taylor Morin, broken up by Marlon CharacterSimilar
Q4 5:36
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
97.3%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Taylor MorinSimilar
Q4 5:36
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
97.3%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Ke'Shawn Williams for no gain to the WFrst 25Similar
Q4 5:36
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
97.4%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Jaquarii RobersonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 27TD
3 plays · 25 yds · 1:3998% → 100%
Q4 3:56
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+2
98.4%
Jalen Mitchell run for 2 yds to the WFrst 23Similar
Q4 3:56
2ND & 8
OPP 23
+1
98.4%
Jalen Mitchell run for 1 yd to the WFrst 22Similar
Q4 2:17
3RD & 7
OPP 22
+22
99.6%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Marshon Ford for 22 yds for a TD (James Turner KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 28END OF GAME
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 2:17
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+8
99.5%
Ahmani Marshall run for 8 yds to the WFrst 45Similar
Q4 2:17
2ND & 2
OWN 45
0
99.5%
Ahmani Marshall run for no gain to the WFrst 45Similar
Q4 2:17
3RD & 2
OWN 45
+4
99.5%
Ahmani Marshall run for 4 yds to the WFrst 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:17
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-4
99.5%
Ahmani Marshall run for a loss of 4 yards to the WFrst 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 8:03
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Francis Sherman for 4 yds for a TD (James Turner KICK)
+13.4
TD · Q4 13:24
Sam Hartman pass complete to Jaquarii Roberson for 37 yds for a TD S Hartman kick attempt failed, PENALTY LOU holding (Hayes, I.) 2 yards to the LOU1, NO PLAY. (Sam Hartman pass to Jaquarii Roberson for Two-Point Conversion)
-12.5
TD · Q2 1:04
Hassan Hall run for 1 yd for a TD (James Turner KICK)
+8.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com