Try the model
ARK

Arkansas 48 at Missouri 50

MIZ
2020 · Week 14 · Dec 5, 2020 · Memorial Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · MIZ
modelMIZ aheadARK aheadconfidence bandkey playMIZ scoreARK score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDFGTDTDTDTDFGTDFGTDTDTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 7:46 · Reid Bauer punt for 49 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Misso 20
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialPregame priorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+33.0+16.50−16.5−33.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 193Home team on offense−1.5Garbage-time factor+0.1Score differential−4.2Pregame prior+0.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+1.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q4 12:41: Tyler Badie run for 46 yds for a TD (Harrison Mevis KICK) — MIZ win probability +20.6 pts (now 35%) (top driver: MIZ has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 7:46: Larry Rountree III run for 9 yds for a TD (Harrison Mevis KICK) — MIZ win probability +29.4 pts (now 64%) (top driver: MIZ has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 4:47: Tyler Badie run for 25 yds for a TD (Harrison Mevis KICK) — MIZ win probability +27.1 pts (now 91%) (top driver: MIZ has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 0:43: KJ Jefferson pass complete to Mike Woods for 14 yds for a TD Timeout ARKANSAS, clock 00:43 (KJ Jefferson pass to Mike Woods for Two-Point Conversion) — ARK win probability +63.5 pts (now 82%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 0:00: Harrison Mevis 32 yd FG GOOD — MIZ win probability +58.1 pts (now 96%) (top driver: MIZ has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MIZ made the numbers' call on 5 of 6ARK made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 12:12MIZ 4th & 15 at ARK 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 58.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.2%−0.1
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    58.3%
    47% to make
    Punt
    58.2%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:12ARK 4th & 8 at ARK 27, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.1%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.2%
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:47ARK 4th & 1 at MIZ 46, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 38.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    38.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    37.1%−1.3
    23% to make
    Punt
    37.6%−0.8
    average punt
  4. Q2 11:56MIZ 4th & 7 at ARK 12, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 61.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.6%−0.3
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    60.9%
    86% to make
    Punt
    57.4%−3.5
    average punt
  5. Q2 3:39MIZ 4th & 4 at MIZ 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.6%−0.7
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.2%
    average punt
  6. Q2 2:10ARK 4th & 5 at MIZ 25, tied
    Close callWent for it · 45.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    44.5%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    44.8%
    66% to make
    Punt
    39.9%−4.8
    average punt
  7. Q3 15:00ARK 4th & 3 at ARK 32, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.3%−0.6
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.0%
    average punt
  8. Q3 10:23MIZ 4th & 7 at ARK 20, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 42.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.8%−1.2
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    42.0%
    75% to make
    Punt
    31.4%−10.7
    average punt
  9. Q3 8:09MIZ 4th & 2 at MIZ 26, down 10
    Close callPunted · 31.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.1%−0.6
    average punt
  10. Q3 6:36ARK 4th & 7 at MIZ 42, up 10
    Close callPunted · 68.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.0%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    67.4%−1.6
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    68.5%−0.5
    average punt
  11. Q4 14:51MIZ 4th & 6 at ARK 23, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 26.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.6%−0.4
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    26.0%
    70% to make
    Punt
    17.5%−8.5
    average punt
  12. Q4 12:41ARK 4th & 6 at ARK 40, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.7%−0.4
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.1%
    average punt
  13. Q4 7:46ARK 4th & 14 at ARK 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.2%−9.9
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.1%
    average punt
  14. Q4 4:47ARK 4th & 1 at MIZ 15, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 19.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    17.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    14.4%−3.4
    83% to make
    Punt
    5.3%−12.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MIZ made the numbers' call on 5 of 5ARK made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 6:17MIZ Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 1:48ARK Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    40.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    40.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 11:16ARK Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    40.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    40.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 7:45MIZ Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 3:39ARK Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    39.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 0:20ARK Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 8:18ARK Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    68.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 13:15ARK Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.0%−0.4
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 12:41MIZ Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    24.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    23.8%−0.3
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 7:46MIZ Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    51.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    50.4%−0.8
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 4:47MIZ Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.6%−1.7
    45% to convert
  12. Q4 0:43ARK Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Numbers favored kick by 2.6 ptsWent for two · converted
    Kick
    41.1%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    38.5%−2.6
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MIZDrive 1FG
9 plays · 37 yds · 2:4853% → 54%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+6
53.3%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Niko Hea for 6 yds to the Misso 35Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 35
+21
53.3%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Tauskie Dove for 6 yds to the Ark 41 for a 1ST down ARKANSAS Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the Ark 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
53.3%
Brady Cook rush for loss of 6 yards to the 50 yardline (Eric Gregory), PENALTY AR offside 5 yards to the AR39, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 5
OPP 39
+10
53.3%
Larry Rountree III run for 10 yds to the Ark 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-13
53.3%
Connor Bazelak sacked by Julius Coates for a loss of 13 yards to the Ark 42 Connor Bazelak fumbled, recovered by Misso Connor Bazelak , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 23
OPP 42
+8
53.3%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Daniel Parker Jr. for 8 yds to the Ark 34Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 15
OPP 34
0
53.3%
Connor Bazelak pass incomplete to Tauskie DoveSimilar
Q1 12:12
4TH & 15
OPP 34
+51
53.8%
Harrison Mevis 51 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0046% → 46%
Q1 12:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
53.9%
Mike Woods run for 2 yds to the Ark 27Similar
Q1 12:12
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
53.9%
KJ Jefferson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:12
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
54.0%
KJ Jefferson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:12
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
54.1%
Reid Bauer punt for 42 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 3TD
13 plays · 69 yds · 5:1954% → 58%
Q1 11:36
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
54.0%
Connor Bazelak pass incomplete to Tauskie DoveSimilar
Q1 11:36
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+5
54.0%
Larry Rountree III run for 5 yds to the Misso 36Similar
Q1 11:36
3RD & 5
OWN 0
0
53.8%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Jay Maclin for 4 yards to the MU40 (Montaric Brown), PENALTY AR offside off-setting, PENALTY MU personal foul off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 11:36
3RD & 5
OWN 36
+5
53.9%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Tauskie Dove for 5 yds to the Misso 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:36
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
54.2%
Larry Rountree III run for no gain to the Misso 41Similar
Q1 11:36
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+9
54.1%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Keke Chism for 9 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 11:36
3RD & 1
50
+9
54.3%
D'ionte Smith run for 9 yds to the Ark 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:36
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+9
54.4%
Larry Rountree III run for 9 yds to the Ark 32Similar
Q1 11:36
2ND & 1
OPP 32
+1
54.5%
Larry Rountree III run for 1 yd to the Ark 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:36
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+29
54.5%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Keke Chism for 29 yds to the Ark 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-3
54.5%
Connor Bazelak run for a loss of 3 yards to the Ark 5Similar
Q1 11:36
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
54.5%
Larry Rountree III run for 3 yds to the Ark 2Similar
Q1 6:17
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
58.2%
Larry Rountree III run for 2 yds for a TD (Harrison Mevis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 4TD
17 plays · 75 yds · 4:2943% → 45%
Q1 6:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
57.5%
KJ Jefferson run for 4 yds to the Ark 29Similar
Q1 6:17
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+6
57.3%
Trelon Smith run for 6 yds to the Ark 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:17
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
57.3%
KJ Jefferson run for 4 yds to the Ark 39Similar
Q1 6:17
2ND & 6
OWN 39
-5
56.9%
ARKANSAS Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Ark 34Similar
Q1 4:47
2ND & 11
OWN 34
+1
59.7%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Trelon Smith for 1 yd to the Ark 35Similar
Q1 4:47
3RD & 10
OWN 35
+10
60.0%
KJ Jefferson pass incomplete to Treylon Burks (Martez Manuel), PENALTY MU holding (Joshuah Bledsoe) 10 yards to the AR45, 1ST DOWN AR, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:47
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
59.2%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to T.J. Hammonds for 3 yds to the Ark 48Similar
Q1 4:47
2ND & 7
OWN 48
+4
58.9%
KJ Jefferson run for 4 yds to the Misso 48Similar
Q1 4:47
3RD & 3
OPP 48
+2
58.9%
KJ Jefferson run for 2 yds to the Misso 46Similar
Q1 4:47
4TH & 1
OPP 46
+3
59.3%
KJ Jefferson run for 3 yds to the Misso 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:47
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+15
58.8%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Treylon Burks for 15 yds to the Misso 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:47
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+3
58.3%
Treylon Burks run for 3 yds to the Misso 25Similar
Q1 4:47
2ND & 7
OPP 25
+16
58.3%
KJ Jefferson run for 16 yds to the Misso 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+7
58.3%
KJ Jefferson pass incomplete to Mike Woods, PENALTY MU pass interference (Jarvis Ware) 7 yards to the MU2, 1ST DOWN AR, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 1:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
55.4%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Blake Kern for 2 yds for a TD (A.J. Reed PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 5FG
13 plays · 63 yds · 4:5257% → 63%
Q1 1:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
56.9%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Tyler Badie for 1 yd to the Misso 26Similar
Q1 1:48
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+13
56.8%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Jalen Knox for 13 yds to the Misso 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:48
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+11
57.5%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Keke Chism for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:48
1ST & 10
50
+10
58.0%
Larry Rountree III run for 10 yds to the Ark 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+13
58.8%
Larry Rountree III run for 13 yds to the Ark 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+3
59.3%
Larry Rountree III run for 3 yds to the Ark 24Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 24
0
59.3%
Connor Bazelak pass incomplete to Tauskie DoveSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 24
+9
58.7%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Barrett Banister for 9 yds to the Ark 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+1
59.3%
Larry Rountree III run for 1 yd to the Ark 14Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 14
0
59.3%
Connor Bazelak pass incomplete, broken up by Montaric BrownSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 14
+2
58.6%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Micah Wilson for 2 yds to the Ark 12Similar
Q2 11:56
4TH & 7
OPP 12
+29
62.8%
Harrison Mevis 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 6TD
4 plays · 89 yds · 0:3538% → 46%
Q2 11:51
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+21
62.3%
T.J. Hammonds run for 21 yds to the Ark 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:51
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
61.7%
KJ Jefferson pass incomplete to T.J. HammondsSimilar
Q2 11:16
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+68
54.5%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Treylon Burks for 68 yds for a TD (A.J. Reed KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 7TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:3156% → 68%
Q2 11:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+29
56.3%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Keke Chism for 29 yds to the Ark 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:16
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+2
58.3%
Connor Bazelak run for 2 yds to the Ark 44Similar
Q2 11:16
2ND & 8
OPP 44
+5
58.3%
Connor Bazelak pass incomplete to Keke Chism, PENALTY AR offside (Taurean Carter) 5 yards to the AR39, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:16
2ND & 3
OPP 39
+8
58.4%
Larry Rountree III run for 8 yds to the Ark 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:16
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
58.9%
Connor Bazelak pass incomplete to Keke ChismSimilar
Q2 11:16
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+2
58.8%
Larry Rountree III run for 2 yds to the Ark 29Similar
Q2 11:16
3RD & 8
OPP 29
+9
58.1%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Barrett Banister for 9 yds to the Ark 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:16
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+14
58.9%
Jalen Knox run for 14 yds to the Ark 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
67.6%
Larry Rountree III run for 6 yds for a TD (Harrison Mevis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 8TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 4:0635% → 50%
Q2 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
64.8%
Trelon Smith run for 2 yds to the Ark 27Similar
Q2 7:45
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+13
64.7%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Treylon Burks for 13 yds to the Ark 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+10
63.7%
Treylon Burks run for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:45
1ST & 10
50
+5
62.6%
Trelon Smith run for 5 yds to the Misso 45Similar
Q2 7:45
2ND & 5
OPP 45
+4
62.6%
Trelon Smith run for 4 yds to the Misso 41Similar
Q2 7:45
3RD & 1
OPP 41
+2
62.6%
KJ Jefferson run for 2 yds to the Misso 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:45
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+9
62.6%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to T.J. Hammonds for 9 yds to the Misso 30Similar
Q2 7:45
2ND & 1
OPP 30
+6
61.4%
T.J. Hammonds run for 6 yds to the Misso 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:45
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
61.4%
KJ Jefferson pass incomplete to Mike WoodsSimilar
Q2 7:45
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+7
61.6%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Treylon Burks for 7 yds to the Misso 17Similar
Q2 7:45
3RD & 3
OPP 17
+4
62.5%
Trelon Smith run for 4 yds to the Misso 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:45
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+5
61.4%
Trelon Smith run for 5 yds to the Misso 8Similar
Q2 3:39
2ND & 5
OPP 8
+8
49.7%
Trelon Smith run for 8 yds for a TD (A.J. Reed KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0057% → 56%
Q2 3:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
57.2%
Larry Rountree III run for 4 yds to the Misso 29Similar
Q2 3:39
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+2
57.6%
Larry Rountree III run for 2 yds to the Misso 31Similar
Q2 3:39
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
56.8%
Connor Bazelak pass incomplete to Keke ChismSimilar
Q2 3:39
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
56.2%
Grant McKinniss punt for 39 yds , Nathan Parodi returns for no gain to the Ark 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 10TD
10 plays · 70 yds · 1:5047% → 63%
Q2 2:10
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+9
53.0%
Trelon Smith run for 9 yds to the Ark 39Similar
Q2 2:10
2ND & 1
OWN 39
+6
50.9%
Trelon Smith run for 6 yds to the Ark 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:10
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+15
50.9%
KJ Jefferson pass incomplete to JD White (Nick Bolton), PENALTY MU targeting (Nick Bolton) 15 yards to the MU40, 1ST DOWN AR, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:10
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+10
50.2%
Trelon Smith run for 10 yds to the Misso 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:10
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+5
49.4%
Trelon Smith run for 5 yds to the Misso 25Similar
Q2 2:10
2ND & 5
OPP 25
0
49.3%
Treylon Burks pass incomplete to KJ JeffersonSimilar
Q2 2:10
3RD & 5
OPP 25
0
50.3%
KJ Jefferson pass incomplete to Treylon BurksSimilar
Q2 2:10
4TH & 5
OPP 25
+20
52.2%
Jack Lindsey run for 20 yds to the Misso 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
49.3%
Trelon Smith run for 4 yds to the Misso 1Similar
Q2 0:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
36.6%
KJ Jefferson run for 1 yd for a TD (A.J. Reed KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 11END OF HALF
8 plays · 18 yds · 0:1042% → 41%
Q2 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
42.4%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Tyler Badie for 8 yds to the Misso 33Similar
Q2 0:15
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+15
42.2%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Tauskie Dove for 15 yds to the Misso 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:10
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
43.3%
Connor Bazelak pass incomplete to Niko HeaSimilar
Q2 0:10
2ND & 10
OWN 48
-5
42.8%
MISSOURI Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the Misso 43Similar
Q2 0:10
2ND & 15
OWN 43
0
40.7%
Connor Bazelak pass incomplete to Keke ChismSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0061% → 60%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
38.9%
Trelon Smith run for 7 yds to the Ark 32Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 32
0
37.8%
KJ Jefferson run for no gain to the Ark 32Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
38.7%
KJ Jefferson run for no gain to the Ark 32Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
40.0%
Reid Bauer punt for 48 yds, downed at the Misso 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 13FG
8 plays · 60 yds · 3:0740% → 49%
Q3 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+34
40.3%
Larry Rountree III run for 34 yds to the Ark 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:30
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+8
44.1%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Micah Wilson for 8 yds to the Ark 38Similar
Q3 13:30
2ND & 2
OPP 38
+15
44.2%
Connor Bazelak pass incomplete to Keke Chism, PENALTY AR pass interference (Montaric Brown) 15 yards to the AR23, 1ST DOWN MU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 13:30
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-5
45.5%
Larry Rountree rush for no gain to the AR23 (Julius Coates), PENALTY MU false start 5 yards to the AR28, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 13:30
1ST & 15
OPP 28
-3
44.6%
Larry Rountree III run for a loss of 3 yards to the Ark 31Similar
Q3 13:30
2ND & 18
OPP 31
0
43.6%
Connor Bazelak pass incomplete to Tyler BadieSimilar
Q3 13:30
3RD & 18
OPP 31
+11
41.7%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Damon Hazelton for 11 yds to the Ark 20Similar
Q3 10:23
4TH & 7
OPP 20
+37
48.6%
Harrison Mevis 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 14TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 2:0554% → 70%
Q3 10:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
45.6%
Trelon Smith run for 13 yds to the Ark 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:23
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
43.7%
KJ Jefferson pass incomplete to Mike WoodsSimilar
Q3 10:23
2ND & 10
OWN 38
0
43.9%
KJ Jefferson pass incomplete, broken up by Akial ByersSimilar
Q3 10:23
3RD & 10
OWN 38
-5
45.5%
ARKANSAS Penalty, false start (Dalton Wagner) to the Ark 33Similar
Q3 10:23
3RD & 15
OWN 33
+41
47.2%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Treylon Burks for 41 yds to the Misso 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:23
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+5
41.1%
Trelon Smith run for 5 yds to the Misso 21Similar
Q3 10:23
2ND & 5
OPP 21
+3
41.1%
Trelon Smith run for 3 yds to the Misso 18Similar
Q3 10:23
3RD & 2
OPP 18
+3
42.5%
Trelon Smith run for 3 yds to the Misso 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:18
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
30.0%
Trelon Smith run for 15 yds for a TD (A.J. Reed PAT BLOCKED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 15PUNT
8 plays · 19 yds · 0:0031% → 30%
Q3 8:09
1ST & 10
OWN 7
0
30.5%
Connor Bazelak pass incomplete to Larry Rountree IIISimilar
Q3 8:09
2ND & 10
OWN 7
+5
30.5%
ARKANSAS Penalty, Defensive offside (5 Yards) to the Misso 12Similar
Q3 8:09
2ND & 5
OWN 12
+6
30.9%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Barrett Banister for 6 yds to the Misso 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:09
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
30.9%
Connor Bazelak pass incomplete to Keke Chism, broken up by Montaric BrownSimilar
Q3 8:09
2ND & 10
OWN 18
0
30.9%
Connor Bazelak pass incomplete to Tyler BadieSimilar
Q3 8:09
3RD & 10
OWN 18
+8
29.5%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Barrett Banister for 8 yds to the Misso 26Similar
Q3 8:09
4TH & 2
OWN 26
0
29.5%
Grant McKinniss punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Nathan Parodi at the Ark 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 24 yds · 0:0070% → 70%
Q3 6:36
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+21
30.0%
Trelon Smith run for 21 yds to the Misso 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:36
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
28.9%
KJ Jefferson pass incomplete to Joe FouchaSimilar
Q3 6:36
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+3
28.9%
KJ Jefferson run for 3 yds to the Misso 42Similar
Q3 6:36
3RD & 7
OPP 42
0
29.3%
KJ Jefferson pass incomplete to Blake Kern, broken up by Martez ManuelSimilar
Q3 6:36
4TH & 7
OPP 42
0
30.3%
Reid Bauer punt for 26 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 17FG
15 plays · 61 yds · 5:3428% → 33%
Q3 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+6
28.0%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Jalen Knox for 6 yds to the Misso 22Similar
Q3 5:25
2ND & 4
OWN 22
0
28.5%
Connor Bazelak pass incomplete to Tauskie DoveSimilar
Q3 5:25
3RD & 4
OWN 22
+7
27.0%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Tauskie Dove for 7 yds to the Misso 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-3
28.5%
Larry Rountree rush for 7 yards to the MU36 (Joe Foucha), PENALTY MU holding (Luke Griffin) 3 yards to the MU26, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:25
1ST & 13
OWN 26
+2
28.0%
Larry Rountree III run for 2 yds to the Misso 28Similar
Q3 5:25
2ND & 11
OWN 28
+15
28.0%
Connor Bazelak pass incomplete to Keke Chism, broken up by Joe Foucha for a 1ST down ARKANSAS Penalty, personal foul (Joe Foucha) to the Misso 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
29.9%
Larry Rountree III run for 4 yds to the Misso 47Similar
Q3 5:25
2ND & 6
OWN 47
+8
30.7%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Larry Rountree III for 8 yds to the Ark 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:25
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+4
31.3%
Larry Rountree III run for 4 yds to the Ark 41Similar
Q3 5:25
2ND & 6
OPP 41
+1
31.3%
Larry Rountree III run for 1 yd to the Ark 40Similar
Q3 5:25
3RD & 5
OPP 40
+13
30.8%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Tauskie Dove for 13 yds to the Ark 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:25
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+1
32.8%
Larry Rountree III run for 1 yd to the Ark 26Similar
Q3 5:25
2ND & 9
OPP 26
+3
32.8%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Tyler Badie for 3 yds to the Ark 23Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 23
0
27.2%
Connor Bazelak pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:51
4TH & 6
OPP 23
+40
33.4%
Harrison Mevis 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 18TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 1:3571% → 91%
Q4 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
29.1%
Trelon Smith run for 2 yds to the Ark 27Similar
Q4 14:50
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+21
28.9%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Treylon Burks for 21 yds to the Ark 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
26.8%
KJ Jefferson pass incomplete to Blake KernSimilar
Q4 14:50
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+22
26.9%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Trey Knox for 22 yds to the Misso 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:50
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+14
25.5%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Treylon Burks for 14 yds to the Misso 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:50
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
25.3%
KJ Jefferson pass incomplete to Treylon BurksSimilar
Q4 13:15
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+16
9.5%
Trelon Smith run for 16 yds for a TD (A.J. Reed KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 19TD
3 plays · 75 yds · 0:3415% → 35%
Q4 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+29
14.5%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Damon Hazelton for 29 yds to the Ark 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:41
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+46
35.1%
Tyler Badie run for 46 yds for a TD (Harrison Mevis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 20PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 0:0074% → 74%
Q4 12:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
26.0%
Trelon Smith run for 8 yds to the Ark 33Similar
Q4 12:41
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+3
25.1%
Trelon Smith run for 3 yds to the Ark 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:41
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
24.6%
Trelon Smith run for 1 yd to the Ark 38 Trelon Smith fumbled, recovered by Ark Trelon SmithSimilar
Q4 12:41
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+2
23.8%
T.J. Hammonds run for 2 yds to the Ark 40Similar
Q4 12:41
3RD & 6
OWN 40
0
24.1%
KJ Jefferson run for no gain to the Ark 40Similar
Q4 12:41
4TH & 6
OWN 40
0
26.4%
Reid Bauer punt for 42 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 21TD
10 plays · 82 yds · 2:0727% → 64%
Q4 9:53
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+8
27.1%
Larry Rountree III run for 8 yds to the Misso 26Similar
Q4 9:53
2ND & 2
OWN 26
0
29.1%
Connor Bazelak pass incomplete to Keke ChismSimilar
Q4 9:53
3RD & 2
OWN 26
-5
26.7%
MISSOURI Penalty, false start (Michael Maietti) to the Misso 21Similar
Q4 9:53
3RD & 7
OWN 21
+32
25.5%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Damon Hazelton for 32 yds to the Ark 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:53
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+8
32.5%
Tyler Badie run for 8 yds to the Ark 39Similar
Q4 9:53
2ND & 2
OPP 39
+5
32.7%
Connor Bazelak pass incomplete to B. Banister, PENALTY AR offside (J. Marshall) 5 yards to the AR34, 1ST DOWN MU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:53
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
34.5%
Connor Bazelak pass incomplete to Tyler Badie, broken up by Joe FouchaSimilar
Q4 9:53
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+25
34.4%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Keke Chism for 25 yds to the Ark 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
34.6%
Larry Rountree III run for no gain to the Ark 9Similar
Q4 7:46
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
64.0%
Larry Rountree III run for 9 yds for a TD (Harrison Mevis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 22PUNT
6 plays · 6 yds · 0:0048% → 44%
Q4 7:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
52.0%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Treylon Burks for 10 yds to the Ark 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:46
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
50.7%
T.J. Hammonds run for 3 yds to the Ark 38Similar
Q4 7:46
2ND & 7
OWN 38
-7
48.7%
KJ Jefferson sacked by Trajan Jeffcoat for a loss of 7 yards to the Ark 31Similar
Q4 7:46
3RD & 14
OWN 31
0
54.5%
KJ Jefferson pass incomplete to Mike WoodsSimilar
Q4 7:46
4TH & 14
OWN 31
0
55.8%
Reid Bauer punt for 49 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Misso 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 23TD
4 plays · 80 yds · 1:2657% → 91%
Q4 6:13
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+46
56.5%
Larry Rountree III run for 46 yds to the Ark 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:13
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+10
64.0%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Keke Chism for 10 yds to the Ark 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:13
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-1
64.1%
Tyler Badie run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ark 25Similar
Q4 4:47
2ND & 11
OPP 25
+25
91.2%
Tyler Badie run for 25 yds for a TD (Harrison Mevis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 24TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 4:0414% → 82%
Q4 4:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
85.6%
KJ Jefferson pass incomplete to Mike Woods, broken up by Ennis Rakestraw Jr.Similar
Q4 4:47
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
85.8%
KJ Jefferson pass incomplete to Trelon Smith, broken up by Jamal BrooksSimilar
Q4 4:47
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+13
86.7%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Treylon Burks for 13 yds to the Ark 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:47
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
83.3%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Treylon Burks for 4 yds to the Ark 42Similar
Q4 4:47
2ND & 6
OWN 42
+6
82.3%
Trelon Smith run for 6 yds to the Ark 47 Trelon Smith fumbled, forced by Devin Nicholson, recovered by Ark Myron CunninghamSimilar
Q4 4:47
3RD & 1
OWN 47
+13
82.3%
T.J. Hammonds run for 13 yds to the Misso 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:47
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+9
81.1%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Mike Woods for 9 yds to the Misso 31Similar
Q4 4:47
2ND & 1
OPP 31
+7
78.2%
T.J. Hammonds run for 7 yds to the Misso 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:47
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+8
78.7%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Tyson Morris for 8 yds to the Misso 16Similar
Q4 4:47
2ND & 2
OPP 16
+1
78.2%
Trelon Smith run for 1 yd to the Misso 15Similar
Q4 4:47
3RD & 1
OPP 15
0
80.3%
KJ Jefferson pass incomplete to Treylon BurksSimilar
Q4 4:47
4TH & 1
OPP 15
+1
81.7%
Treylon Burks run for 1 yd to the Misso 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:43
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
18.2%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Mike Woods for 14 yds for a TD Timeout ARKANSAS, clock 00:43 (KJ Jefferson pass to Mike Woods for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 25FG
13 plays · 60 yds · 0:4342% → 96%
Q4 0:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
41.6%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Damon Hazelton for 14 yds to the Misso 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:43
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
43.7%
Connor Bazelak pass incomplete to Keke Chism, PENALTY AR offside (Julius Coates) 5 yards to the MU44, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 0:43
1ST & 5
OWN 44
+18
46.8%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Barrett Banister for 18 yds to the Ark 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:26
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+12
46.8%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Damon Hazelton for 12 yds to the Ark 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:26
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-1
53.2%
Tyler Badie run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ark 27Similar
Q4 0:26
2ND & 11
OPP 27
+10
51.3%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Barrett Banister for 10 yds to the Ark 17Similar
Q4 0:13
3RD & 1
OPP 17
+2
47.0%
Tyler Badie run for 2 yds to the Ark 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+32
95.6%
Harrison Mevis 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:43
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Mike Woods for 14 yds for a TD Timeout ARKANSAS, clock 00:43 (KJ Jefferson pass to Mike Woods for Two-Point Conversion)
-63.5
FG · Q4 0:00
Harrison Mevis 32 yd FG GOOD
+58.1
TD · Q4 7:46
Larry Rountree III run for 9 yds for a TD (Harrison Mevis KICK)
+29.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com