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ALA

Alabama 55 at LSU 17

LSU
2020 · Week 14 · Dec 5, 2020 · Tiger Stadium (LA)
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Win probability · LSU
modelLSU aheadALA aheadconfidence bandkey playLSU scoreALA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDFGFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 4:39 · Zach Von Rosenberg punt for 22 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the LSU 47
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+59.0+29.50−29.5−59.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 33Pregame prior−45.4Home team on offense−4.7Score differential−2.0Garbage-time factor−0.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.8Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 2:27: Jahleel Billingsley 24 Yd pass from Mac Jones (Will Reichard Kick) — ALA win probability +1.3 pts (now 97%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 14:53: TJ Finley pass complete to Kayshon Boutte for 43 yds for a TD Kayshon Boutte fumbled, recovered by LSU Jontre Kirklin , return for 1 yd, (Cade York KICK) — LSU win probability +1.6 pts (now 6%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 13:36: DeVonta Smith 65 Yd pass from Mac Jones (Will Reichard Kick) — ALA win probability +1.6 pts (now 96%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 12:32: John Emery Jr. 54 Yd Run (Cade York Kick) — LSU win probability +1.7 pts (now 6%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q2 11:14: DeVonta Smith 61 Yd pass from Mac Jones (Will Reichard Kick) — ALA win probability +1.8 pts (now 97%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
LSU made the numbers' call on 8 of 10ALA made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 7:52LSU 4th & 1 at ALA 15, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    6.3%−0.1
    83% to make
    Punt
    5.9%−0.6
    average punt
  2. Q1 4:39LSU 4th & 10 at LSU 25, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.1%−0.2
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.3%
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:03ALA 4th & 1 at LSU 38, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 93.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    93.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    93.4%−0.5
    38% to make
    Punt
    93.4%−0.5
    average punt
  4. Q2 8:38LSU 4th & 17 at ALA 47, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.7%−0.3
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.0%
    average punt
  5. Q2 3:20ALA 4th & 7 at LSU 12, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 95.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.7%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    95.8%
    86% to make
    Punt
    94.9%−0.9
    average punt
  6. Q2 2:24LSU 4th & 5 at LSU 30, down 24
    Close callPunted · 4.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.7%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.6%−<0.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:03LSU 4th & 1 at LSU 32, down 31
    Close callPunted · 1.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.5%−0.1
    average punt
  8. Q3 13:34LSU 4th & 12 at LSU 30, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.6%−0.1
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.7%
    average punt
  9. Q3 11:28ALA 4th & 7 at ALA 40, up 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.6%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.6%
    average punt
  10. Q3 10:00LSU 4th & 15 at LSU 22, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.1%−0.2
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.3%
    average punt
  11. Q3 0:31LSU 4th & 12 at ALA 34, down 38
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−<0.1
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    0.3%
    47% to make
    Punt
    0.2%−0.1
    average punt
  12. Q4 7:26LSU 4th & 1 at ALA 20, down 38
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%−0.1
    75% to make
    Punt
    -0.1%−0.3
    average punt
  13. Q4 4:43LSU 4th & 1 at ALA 1, down 38
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.2%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%−0.1
    94% to make
    Punt
    -0.1%−0.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
LSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1ALA made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
  1. Q1 11:56ALA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 5:50ALA Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 2:27ALA Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 13:36ALA Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 12:32LSU Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    6.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    6.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 11:14ALA Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 0:46ALA Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 3:39ALA Touchdown, up 37 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ALADrive 1TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 2:5596% → 96%
Q1 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
3.6%
Mac Jones pass complete to DeVonta Smith for 8 yds to the Alab 33Similar
Q1 14:19
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+12
3.7%
Najee Harris run for 12 yds to the Alab 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:49
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
3.8%
Mac Jones pass complete to DeVonta Smith for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 13:18
2ND & 5
50
+2
4.0%
Najee Harris run for 2 yds to the LSU 48Similar
Q1 12:52
3RD & 3
OPP 48
+5
4.0%
LSU Penalty, Defensive Offside (Neil Farrell Jr.) to the LSU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:45
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+24
4.1%
Mac Jones pass complete to John Metchie III for 24 yds to the LSU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:27
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+5
4.1%
Najee Harris run for 5 yds to the LSU 14Similar
Q1 11:56
2ND & 5
OPP 14
+14
4.1%
Najee Harris 14 Yd Run (Will Reichard Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 2DOWNS
13 plays · 60 yds · 3:574% → 5%
Q1 11:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
4.1%
TJ Finley pass complete to Tory Carter for 5 yds to the LSU 30Similar
Q1 11:26
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+3
4.2%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for 3 yds to the LSU 33Similar
Q1 10:58
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+8
4.3%
TJ Finley pass complete to Kayshon Boutte for 8 yds to the LSU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:29
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+10
4.4%
TJ Finley pass complete to Arik Gilbert for 10 yds to the Alab 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:56
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
4.6%
TJ Finley pass incomplete to Arik GilbertSimilar
Q1 9:47
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+15
4.6%
TJ Finley pass complete to Arik Gilbert for 15 yds to the Alab 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:24
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+10
4.8%
TJ Finley pass complete to Kayshon Boutte for 10 yds to the Alab 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:45
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
4.8%
TJ Finley pass incomplete to Tre BradfordSimilar
Q1 8:39
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+9
4.8%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for 9 yds to the Alab 15Similar
Q1 8:25
3RD & 1
OPP 15
0
4.8%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for no gain to the Alab 15Similar
Q1 7:52
4TH & 1
OPP 15
0
4.9%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for no gain to the Alab 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 3TD
5 plays · 85 yds · 1:5395% → 96%
Q1 7:43
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+27
4.9%
Mac Jones pass complete to Jahleel Billingsley for 27 yds to the Alab 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:09
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+43
4.9%
Najee Harris run for 28 yds to the LSU 30 for a 1ST down LSU Penalty, Personal Foul (JaCoby Stevens) to the LSU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:58
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+12
4.9%
Mac Jones pass complete to DeVonta Smith for 12 yds to the LSU 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
4.9%
Najee Harris run for 2 yds to the LSU 1Similar
Q1 5:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
4.4%
Najee Harris 1 Yd Run (Will Reichard Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:555% → 5%
Q1 5:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
4.7%
John Emery Jr. run for 2 yds to the LSU 27Similar
Q1 5:20
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
4.7%
TJ Finley pass incomplete to Koy MooreSimilar
Q1 5:08
3RD & 8
OWN 27
-2
4.7%
TJ Finley sacked by Will Anderson Jr. for a loss of 2 yards to the LSU 25Similar
Q1 4:39
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
4.8%
Zach Von Rosenberg punt for 22 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the LSU 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 5TD
6 plays · 47 yds · 2:1295% → 97%
Q1 4:39
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+5
4.6%
LSU Penalty, Defensive Offside (Jaquelin Roy) to the LSU 42Similar
Q1 4:32
1ST & 5
OPP 42
-5
4.5%
Mac Jones pass complete to Najee Harris for a loss of 5 yards to the LSU 47Similar
Q1 3:59
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+9
4.6%
Najee Harris run for 9 yds to the LSU 38Similar
Q1 3:40
3RD & 1
OPP 38
0
4.6%
Najee Harris run for no gain to the LSU 38Similar
Q1 3:03
4TH & 1
OPP 38
+14
4.8%
Mac Jones pass complete to Jahleel Billingsley for 14 yds to the LSU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:27
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+24
3.5%
Jahleel Billingsley 24 Yd pass from Mac Jones (Will Reichard Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 6TD
10 plays · 95 yds · 2:194% → 6%
Q1 2:12
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+9
3.9%
TJ Finley pass complete to Jontre Kirklin for 9 yds to the LSU 14Similar
Q1 1:48
2ND & 1
OWN 14
+4
3.9%
TJ Finley pass complete to Koy Moore for 4 yds to the LSU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:17
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
3.9%
TJ Finley pass incomplete to Jontre KirklinSimilar
Q1 1:12
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+1
3.9%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for 1 yd to the LSU 19Similar
Q1 0:41
3RD & 9
OWN 27
+23
3.9%
TJ Finley pass complete to Kayshon Boutte for 8 yds to the LSU 27 for a 1ST down ALABAMA Penalty, Roughing Passer (Christian Harris) to the LSU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:25
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
4.1%
TJ Finley pass incomplete to Tyrion Davis-PriceSimilar
Q1 0:16
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+9
4.0%
TJ Finley pass complete to Kayshon Boutte for 9 yds to the Alab 49Similar
Q1 0:01
3RD & 1
OPP 49
+5
4.1%
TJ Finley run for 5 yds to the Alab 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+1
5.7%
TJ Finley pass complete to Kayshon Boutte for 43 yds for a TD Kayshon Boutte fumbled, recovered by LSU Jontre Kirklin , return for 1 yd, (Cade York KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 7TD
3 plays · 75 yds · 1:1295% → 96%
Q2 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
5.2%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 6 yds to the Alab 31Similar
Q2 14:12
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+4
5.2%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 4 yds to the Alab 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:36
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+65
3.6%
DeVonta Smith 65 Yd pass from Mac Jones (Will Reichard Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 8TD
5 plays · 69 yds · 0:514% → 6%
Q2 13:23
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
3.9%
John Emery Jr. run for no gain to the LSU 31Similar
Q2 12:48
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+15
3.9%
Finley, TJ pass incomplete to Jenkins, Jaray, PENALTY ALABAMA personal foul (Wright, Daniel) 15 yards to the LSU46, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN LSU.Similar
Q2 12:44
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
4.2%
TJ Finley pass incomplete to Jontre KirklinSimilar
Q2 12:32
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+54
5.9%
John Emery Jr. 54 Yd Run (Cade York Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 9TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 1:1295% → 97%
Q2 12:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
5.4%
Najee Harris run for 6 yds to the Alab 31Similar
Q2 11:51
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+8
5.3%
Mac Jones pass complete to Najee Harris for 8 yds to the Alab 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:14
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+61
3.5%
DeVonta Smith 61 Yd pass from Mac Jones (Will Reichard Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 10PUNT
8 plays · 28 yds · 2:284% → 4%
Q2 11:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+20
3.9%
John Emery Jr. run for 20 yds to the LSU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:32
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
4.2%
TJ Finley pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:26
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+15
4.2%
TJ Finley pass complete to Tory Carter for 15 yds to the Alab 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:07
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
4.2%
TJ Finley pass incomplete to Kayshon BoutteSimilar
Q2 10:02
2ND & 10
OPP 40
-4
4.2%
John Emery Jr. run for a loss of 4 yards to the Alab 44Similar
Q2 9:17
3RD & 14
OPP 44
-3
4.1%
TJ Finley sacked by Christian Barmore for a loss of 3 yards to the Alab 47 TJ Finley fumbled, forced by Christian Barmore, recovered by LSU TJ Finley , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q2 8:38
4TH & 17
OPP 47
0
4.0%
Zach Von Rosenberg punt for 36 yds, fair catch by DeVonta Smith at the Alab 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 11FG
13 plays · 77 yds · 5:1397% → 97%
Q2 8:33
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+5
3.4%
Najee Harris run for 5 yds to the Alab 16Similar
Q2 7:59
2ND & 5
OWN 16
-8
3.6%
Jones, Mac pass complete to Metchie III, John for 4 yards to the ALABAMA20, PENALTY ALABAMA holding (Leatherwood, Alex) 8 yards to the ALABAMA8, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:40
2ND & 13
OWN 8
+13
3.7%
Mac Jones pass complete to John Metchie III for 13 yds to the Alab 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:16
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
3.6%
Najee Harris run for no gain to the Alab 21Similar
Q2 6:37
2ND & 10
OWN 21
0
3.6%
Mac Jones pass incomplete to John Metchie IIISimilar
Q2 6:37
3RD & 10
OWN 21
+5
3.8%
LSU Penalty, Defensive Offside (Ray Thornton) to the Alab 26Similar
Q2 6:24
3RD & 5
OWN 26
+48
3.7%
Mac Jones pass complete to DeVonta Smith for 48 yds to the LSU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:55
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+7
3.3%
Najee Harris run for 7 yds to the LSU 19Similar
Q2 5:23
2ND & 3
OPP 19
+4
3.3%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 4 yds to the LSU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:50
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+3
3.2%
Najee Harris run for 3 yds to the LSU 12Similar
Q2 4:07
2ND & 7
OPP 12
0
3.2%
Najee Harris run for no gain to the LSU 12Similar
Q2 3:25
3RD & 7
OPP 12
0
3.3%
Mac Jones pass incomplete to Najee HarrisSimilar
Q2 3:20
4TH & 7
OPP 12
+30
3.5%
Will Reichard 30 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:504% → 4%
Q2 3:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
3.9%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for 5 yds to the LSU 30Similar
Q2 2:41
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
4.1%
TJ Finley pass incomplete to Kayshon BoutteSimilar
Q2 2:35
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
4.0%
TJ Finley pass incomplete to Arik GilbertSimilar
Q2 2:24
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
3.9%
Zach Von Rosenberg punt for 28 yds, downed at the Alab 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 13TD
7 plays · 58 yds · 1:3297% → 98%
Q2 2:18
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+9
3.3%
Najee Harris run for 9 yds to the LSU 49Similar
Q2 1:46
2ND & 1
OPP 49
+15
2.8%
Najee Harris run for 15 yds to the LSU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:25
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+14
3.2%
Mac Jones pass complete to John Metchie III for 14 yds to the LSU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:57
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
2.9%
Mac Jones pass incomplete to Miller ForristallSimilar
Q2 0:53
2ND & 10
OPP 20
0
2.9%
Mac Jones pass incomplete to Najee HarrisSimilar
Q2 0:46
3RD & 10
OPP 20
+20
1.9%
DeVonta Smith 20 Yd pass from Mac Jones (Will Reichard Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:361% → 1%
Q2 0:39
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
1.0%
TJ Finley pass incomplete to John Emery Jr.Similar
Q2 0:31
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+9
1.0%
John Emery Jr. run for 9 yds to the LSU 32Similar
Q2 0:12
3RD & 1
OWN 32
0
0.8%
TJ Finley pass incomplete to Kayshon BoutteSimilar
Q2 0:03
4TH & 1
OWN 32
0
0.8%
Zach Von Rosenberg punt for 38 yds, fair catch by DeVonta Smith at the Alab 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 15END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q2 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-1
1.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Alab 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 1:152% → 3%
Q3 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
2.2%
TJ Finley pass complete to Koy Moore for 3 yds to the LSU 35Similar
Q3 14:23
2ND & 7
OWN 35
-5
2.6%
TJ Finley sacked by Josh Jobe for a loss of 5 yards to the LSU 30Similar
Q3 13:42
3RD & 12
OWN 30
0
2.5%
TJ Finley pass incomplete to Jaray JenkinsSimilar
Q3 13:34
4TH & 12
OWN 30
0
2.5%
Zach Von Rosenberg punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Slade Bolden at the Alab 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 17PUNT
6 plays · 15 yds · 1:5998% → 98%
Q3 13:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
1.7%
Najee Harris run for 9 yds to the Alab 34Similar
Q3 12:56
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+3
1.5%
Najee Harris run for 3 yds to the Alab 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:26
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
1.6%
Mac Jones pass incomplete to DeVonta SmithSimilar
Q3 12:19
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+3
1.6%
Mac Jones pass complete to Jahleel Billingsley for 3 yds to the Alab 40Similar
Q3 11:39
3RD & 7
OWN 40
0
1.5%
Mac Jones pass incomplete to John Metchie IIISimilar
Q3 11:28
4TH & 7
OWN 40
0
1.6%
Charlie Scott punt for 33 yds, downed at the LSU 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · -5 yds · 1:212% → 2%
Q3 11:21
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+4
2.2%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for 4 yds to the LSU 31Similar
Q3 10:51
2ND & 6
OWN 31
-9
2.1%
TJ Finley sacked by Byron Young and Will Anderson Jr. for a loss of 9 yards to the LSU 22Similar
Q3 10:08
3RD & 15
OWN 22
0
2.0%
TJ Finley pass incomplete to Kayshon BoutteSimilar
Q3 10:00
4TH & 15
OWN 22
0
1.9%
Zach Von Rosenberg punt for 37 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Alab 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 19FUMBLE
4 plays · 35 yds · 1:2899% → 99%
Q3 9:52
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+12
1.3%
Mac Jones pass complete to DeVonta Smith for 12 yds to the LSU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:17
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+4
1.3%
Najee Harris run for 4 yds to the LSU 43Similar
Q3 8:34
2ND & 6
OPP 43
0
1.3%
Mac Jones pass incomplete to Najee HarrisSimilar
Q3 8:24
3RD & 6
OPP 43
+2
1.3%
Mac Jones pass complete to Slade Bolden for 19 yds Slade Bolden fumbled, forced by Jay Ward, recovered by LSU Derek Stingley Jr. , return for 2 yds to the LSU 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 20FUMBLE
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:201% → 1%
Q3 8:18
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+2
1.3%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for 2 yds to the LSU 28Similar
Q3 7:47
2ND & 8
OWN 28
+7
1.2%
TJ Finley pass complete to John Emery Jr. for 7 yds to the LSU 35Similar
Q3 7:31
3RD & 1
OWN 35
+2
1.3%
TJ Finley run for 2 yds to the LSU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:58
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-3
1.2%
TJ Finley pass complete to Arik Gilbert for a loss of 3 yards Arik Gilbert fumbled, forced by Christopher Allen, recovered by Alab Christopher AllenSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 21TD
6 plays · 34 yds · 3:1099% → 100%
Q3 6:49
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+7
1.4%
Mac Jones pass complete to John Metchie III for 7 yds to the LSU 27Similar
Q3 6:16
2ND & 3
OPP 27
+6
1.1%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 6 yds to the LSU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:41
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-2
1.2%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the LSU 23Similar
Q3 4:59
2ND & 12
OPP 23
+6
1.2%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 6 yds to the LSU 17Similar
Q3 4:11
3RD & 6
OPP 17
+6
0.7%
Mac Jones pass complete to Brian Robinson Jr. for 6 yds to the LSU 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:39
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
0.4%
Najee Harris 11 Yd Run (Will Reichard Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 22FG
12 plays · 41 yds · 3:010% → 0%
Q3 3:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
0.3%
Max Johnson run for 4 yds to the LSU 29Similar
Q3 3:06
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+3
0.3%
Max Johnson pass complete to Arik Gilbert for 3 yds to the LSU 32Similar
Q3 2:39
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+13
0.3%
Max Johnson pass complete to Trey Palmer for 13 yds to the LSU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:13
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+12
0.3%
Max Johnson pass complete to Tre Bradford for 12 yds to the Alab 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:51
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
0.3%
Max Johnson pass complete to Trey Palmer for 3 yds to the Alab 40Similar
Q3 1:30
2ND & 7
OPP 40
+8
0.3%
Max Johnson pass complete to Kayshon Boutte for 8 yds to the Alab 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:09
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
0.3%
Max Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:04
2ND & 10
OPP 32
-2
0.3%
John Emery Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the Alab 34Similar
Q3 0:37
3RD & 12
OPP 34
0
0.3%
Max Johnson pass incomplete to Jaray JenkinsSimilar
Q3 0:31
4TH & 12
OPP 34
+52
0.3%
Cade York 52 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 23FG
13 plays · 29 yds · 4:28100% → 100%
Q3 0:18
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
0.3%
Mac Jones pass incomplete to John Metchie IIISimilar
Q3 0:13
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+4
0.3%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 4 yds to the LSU 41Similar
Q4 14:54
3RD & 6
OPP 41
+11
0.3%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 11 yds to the LSU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:12
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+9
0.3%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 9 yds to the LSU 21Similar
Q4 13:36
2ND & 1
OPP 21
+3
0.3%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 3 yds to the LSU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:04
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+11
0.3%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 11 yds to the LSU 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-5
0.3%
ALABAMA Penalty, False Start (Deonte Brown) to the LSU 12Similar
Q4 12:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 12
+3
0.3%
Jase McClellan run for 3 yds to the LSU 9Similar
Q4 11:34
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
-7
0.2%
Bryce Young sacked by Ali Gaye for a loss of 7 yards to the LSU 16Similar
Q4 10:56
3RD & GOAL
OPP 16
0
0.2%
Bryce Young pass incomplete to DeVonta SmithSimilar
Q4 10:50
4TH & 0
OPP 16
+34
0.4%
Will Reichard 34 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 24DOWNS
17 plays · 74 yds · 5:580% → 0%
Q4 10:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+21
0.2%
Max Johnson pass complete to Jontre Kirklin for 21 yds to the LSU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:09
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+13
0.2%
Max Johnson pass complete to Tory Carter for 13 yds to the Alab 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:38
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
0.2%
Max Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:32
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+9
0.1%
Max Johnson pass complete to Koy Moore for 9 yds to the Alab 32Similar
Q4 9:16
3RD & 1
OPP 32
+3
0.2%
Max Johnson run for 3 yds to the Alab 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:33
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
0.1%
Max Johnson pass incomplete to Tre BradfordSimilar
Q4 8:28
2ND & 10
OPP 29
-6
0.1%
Max Johnson sacked by Christian Harris and Will Anderson Jr. for a loss of 6 yards to the Alab 35Similar
Q4 7:45
3RD & 16
OPP 35
+15
0.1%
Max Johnson pass complete to Kayshon Boutte for 15 yds to the Alab 20Similar
Q4 7:26
4TH & 1
OPP 20
+1
0.1%
Max Johnson run for 1 yd to the Alab 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:46
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+9
0.1%
Max Johnson pass complete to Kayshon Boutte for 9 yds to the Alab 10Similar
Q4 6:12
2ND & 1
OPP 10
+5
0.1%
Tre Bradford run for 5 yds to the Alab 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
0.1%
Max Johnson pass complete to Arik Gilbert for 4 yds to the Alab 1Similar
Q4 5:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
0.1%
Max Johnson run for no gain to the Alab 1Similar
Q4 4:47
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
0.1%
Max Johnson pass incomplete to Tory CarterSimilar
Q4 4:43
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
0
0.1%
Max Johnson pass incomplete to Arik GilbertSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 25Uncategorized
10 plays · 63 yds · 4:13100% → 100%
Q4 4:37
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+2
0.4%
Jase McClellan run for 2 yds to the Alab 3Similar
Q4 3:49
2ND & 8
OWN 3
+11
0.4%
Jase McClellan run for 11 yds to the Alab 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:07
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+25
0.2%
Jase McClellan run for 25 yds to the Alab 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:41
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+9
0.3%
Roydell Williams run for 9 yds to the Alab 48Similar
Q4 2:33
2ND & 1
OWN 48
+3
0.2%
Roydell Williams run for 3 yds to the LSU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:51
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+7
0.1%
Roydell Williams run for 7 yds to the LSU 42Similar
Q4 1:01
2ND & 3
OPP 42
+7
0.1%
Jase McClellan run for 7 yds to the LSU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:24
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-1
0.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the LSU 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 11:14
DeVonta Smith 61 Yd pass from Mac Jones (Will Reichard Kick)
-1.8
TD · Q2 12:32
John Emery Jr. 54 Yd Run (Cade York Kick)
+1.7
TD · Q2 14:53
TJ Finley pass complete to Kayshon Boutte for 43 yds for a TD Kayshon Boutte fumbled, recovered by LSU Jontre Kirklin , return for 1 yd, (Cade York KICK)
+1.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com