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LT

Louisiana Tech 42 at North Texas 31

UNT
2020 · Week 14 · Dec 3, 2020 · DATCU Stadium
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Win probability · UNT
modelUNT aheadLT aheadconfidence bandkey playUNT scoreLT score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 7:41 · Jacob Barnes punt for 35 yds , Deonte Simpson returns for no gain to the NoTex 25
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsPregame prior
+40.5+20.30−20.3−40.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 33Home team on offense−0.4Score differential−0.5Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.3Pregame prior−1.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:13: Luke Anthony pass complete to Kyle Maxwell for 5 yds for a TD (Jacob Barnes KICK) — LT win probability +13.6 pts (now 71%) (top driver: LT has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 5:13: Luke Anthony pass complete to Smoke Harris for 6 yds for a TD (Jacob Barnes KICK) — LT win probability +17.0 pts (now 90%) (top driver: LT has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 4:23: Jason Bean pass complete to Jaelon Darden for 33 yds for a TD (Ethan Mooney KICK) — UNT win probability +12.8 pts (now 29%) (top driver: UNT has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 1:21: Israel Tucker run for 1 yd for a TD (Jacob Barnes KICK) — LT win probability +14.8 pts (now 94%) (top driver: LT has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 10:37: Jason Bean pass complete to Jaelon Darden for 10 yds for a TD (Ethan Mooney KICK) — UNT win probability +10.6 pts (now 18%) (top driver: UNT has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UNT made the numbers' call on 6 of 8LT made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 10:25UNT 4th & 2 at LT 31, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 48.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    48.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    48.1%−0.2
    54% to make
    Punt
    47.9%−0.4
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:41LT 4th & 1 at LT 40, tied
    Close callPunted · 50.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.7%−0.4
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:45LT 4th & 1 at LT 41, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 45.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    45.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    45.2%−0.4
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:45LT 4th & 1 at UNT 43, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 45.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    45.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    45.1%−0.9
    28% to make
    Punt
    45.3%−0.7
    average punt
  5. Q2 15:00LT 4th & 8 at UNT 34, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 43.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    43.3%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    43.3%−<0.1
    47% to make
    Punt
    42.8%−0.5
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:13UNT 4th & 1 at UNT 36, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 51.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    52.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    51.4%−0.8
    average punt
  7. Q2 3:05UNT 4th & 12 at LT 31, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 40.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.7%−0.9
    23% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    39.6%
    54% to make
    Punt
    37.9%−1.7
    average punt
  8. Q3 15:00LT 4th & 25 at UNT 45, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.9%−2.5
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    65.9%−1.6
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    67.5%
    average punt
  9. Q3 12:20UNT 4th & 15 at UNT 15, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.1%−2.4
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.4%
    average punt
  10. Q4 15:00UNT 4th & 25 at midfield, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.7%−3.0
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.6%
    average punt
  11. Q4 14:08LT 4th & 2 at LT 21, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.9%−0.1
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.0%
    average punt
  12. Q4 10:37LT 4th & 6 at LT 37, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.0%−0.3
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.3%
    average punt
  13. Q4 8:50UNT 4th & 4 at UNT 49, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 14.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    14.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    13.8%−0.9
    average punt
  14. Q4 4:56UNT 4th & 10 at LT 37, down 11
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsKicked a field goal · 10.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.9%
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    9.8%−1.1
    40% to make
    Punt
    9.7%−1.2
    average punt
  15. Q4 1:53LT 4th & 3 at UNT 46, up 11
    Close callPunted · 95.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    94.4%−0.6
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    94.7%−0.3
    average punt
  16. Q4 1:43UNT 4th & 14 at UNT 11, down 11
    Close callWent for it · 4.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.5%−0.3
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    4.8%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UNT made the numbers' call on 4 of 4LT made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 10:25LT Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    51.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 7:41UNT Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    50.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    50.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 4:45UNT Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    54.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 12:13LT Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    47.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 7:40LT Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 0:13LT Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 5:13LT Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 4:23UNT Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    23.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    23.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 1:21LT Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 10:37UNT Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    13.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    13.4%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UNTDrive 1INT
10 plays · 17 yds · 0:0048% → 48%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
48.3%
Jason Bean run for no gain to the NoTex 21Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 21
-5
48.3%
NORTH TEXAS Penalty, false start (Daizion Carroll) to the NoTex 16Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 15
OWN 16
+7
48.3%
Jason Bean run for 7 yds to the NoTex 23Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 23
+15
48.3%
Jason Bean pass complete to Austin Ogunmakin for 15 yds to the NoTex 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+8
48.3%
Oscar Adaway III run for 8 yds to the NoTex 46Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 46
+2
48.3%
Oscar Adaway III run for 2 yds to the NoTex 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
48.3%
Jason Bean pass incomplete to Deonte Simpson, broken up by Joren DickeySimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 48
-10
48.3%
NORTH TEXAS Penalty, Offensive holding (Daizion Carroll) to the NoTex 38Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 20
OWN 38
-6
48.3%
Jason Bean pass intercepted Ezekiel Barnett return for 6 yds to the LaTch 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 2TD
8 plays · 55 yds · 2:1752% → 53%
Q1 12:42
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
48.5%
Israel Tucker run for 4 yds to the LaTch 49Similar
Q1 12:42
2ND & 6
OWN 49
0
48.5%
Luke Anthony pass incomplete to Isaiah GrahamSimilar
Q1 12:42
3RD & 6
OWN 49
+12
48.5%
Luke Anthony pass complete to Griffin Hebert for 12 yds to the NoTex 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:42
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
48.4%
Luke Anthony pass incomplete to Wayne ToussantSimilar
Q1 12:42
2ND & 10
OPP 39
-5
48.5%
LOUISIANA TECH Penalty, false start (Dakota White) to the NoTex 44Similar
Q1 12:42
2ND & 15
OPP 44
+15
48.6%
Israel Tucker run for 15 yds to the NoTex 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:42
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+17
48.4%
Luke Anthony pass complete to Israel Tucker for 17 yds to the NoTex 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:25
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
46.9%
Smoke Harris run for 12 yds for a TD (Jacob Barnes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 3TD
10 plays · 70 yds · 2:4448% → 51%
Q1 10:25
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+10
47.5%
Jason Bean pass complete to Jason Pirtle for 10 yds to the NoTex 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:25
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+21
47.7%
DeAndre Torrey run for 21 yds to the LaTch 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:25
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+3
48.0%
Jason Bean pass complete to Jason Pirtle for 3 yds to the LaTch 36Similar
Q1 10:25
2ND & 7
OPP 36
+2
48.0%
Oscar Adaway III run for 2 yds to the LaTch 34Similar
Q1 10:25
3RD & 5
OPP 34
+3
47.9%
Oscar Adaway III run for 3 yds to the LaTch 31Similar
Q1 10:25
4TH & 2
OPP 31
+3
47.7%
Nic Smith run for 3 yds to the LaTch 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:25
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
48.1%
Jason Bean pass incomplete to Deonte SimpsonSimilar
Q1 10:25
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+15
48.1%
Nic Smith run for 15 yds to the LaTch 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:41
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
50.6%
Jason Bean pass complete to Jaelon Darden for 13 yds for a TD (Ethan Mooney KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0051% → 51%
Q1 7:41
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
49.3%
Israel Tucker run for 4 yds to the LaTch 35Similar
Q1 7:41
2ND & 6
OWN 35
+2
49.1%
Israel Tucker run for 2 yds to the LaTch 37Similar
Q1 7:41
3RD & 4
OWN 37
+3
49.2%
Israel Tucker run for 3 yds to the LaTch 40Similar
Q1 7:41
4TH & 1
OWN 40
0
49.4%
Jacob Barnes punt for 35 yds , Deonte Simpson returns for no gain to the NoTex 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 5TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:1050% → 55%
Q1 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
49.9%
DeAndre Torrey run for 3 yds to the NoTex 28Similar
Q1 5:55
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+20
50.0%
DeAndre Torrey run for 5 yds to the NoTex 33 for a 1ST down LOUISIANA TECH Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (DJ Jackson) to the NoTex 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+49
50.8%
Jason Bean pass complete to Jaelon Darden for 49 yds to the LaTch 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
51.2%
Jason Bean pass complete to Jaelon Darden for 2 yds to the LaTch 1Similar
Q1 4:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
55.3%
DeAndre Torrey run for 1 yd for a TD (Ethan Mooney KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 6TD
19 plays · 68 yds · 7:3246% → 51%
Q1 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+9
53.8%
Greg Garner run for 9 yds to the LaTch 41Similar
Q1 4:45
2ND & 1
OWN 41
-1
53.2%
Greg Garner run for a loss of 1 yard to the LaTch 40Similar
Q1 4:45
3RD & 2
OWN 40
+1
53.3%
Greg Garner run for 1 yd to the LaTch 41Similar
Q1 4:45
4TH & 1
OWN 41
+7
54.0%
Israel Tucker run for 7 yds to the LaTch 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+5
53.2%
Israel Tucker run for 5 yds to the NoTex 47Similar
Q1 4:45
2ND & 5
OPP 47
+4
53.0%
Israel Tucker run for 4 yds to the NoTex 43Similar
Q1 4:45
3RD & 1
OPP 43
0
52.9%
Israel Tucker run for no gain to the NoTex 43Similar
Q1 4:45
4TH & 1
OPP 43
+7
53.5%
Israel Tucker run for 7 yds to the NoTex 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:45
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+1
53.0%
Israel Tucker run for 1 yd to the NoTex 35Similar
Q1 4:45
2ND & 9
OPP 35
-2
52.5%
Aaron Allen pass complete to Smoke Harris for a loss of 2 yards to the NoTex 37Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 11
OPP 37
+3
55.4%
Aaron Allen run for 3 yds to the NoTex 34Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 8
OPP 34
+12
56.1%
Aaron Allen pass complete to Isaiah Graham for 12 yds to the NoTex 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+9
53.7%
Wayne Toussant run for 9 yds to the NoTex 13Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 13
+7
53.7%
Greg Garner run for 7 yds to the NoTex 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
53.7%
NORTH TEXAS Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Cam Johnson) to the NoTex 2Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
53.7%
Aaron Allen pass incomplete to Greg GarnerSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
53.7%
Israel Tucker run for 1 yd to the NoTex 1Similar
Q2 12:13
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
48.6%
Greg Garner run for 1 yd for a TD (Jacob Barnes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 7DOWNS
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0052% → 51%
Q2 12:13
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+8
51.9%
DeAndre Torrey run for 8 yds to the NoTex 35Similar
Q2 12:13
2ND & 2
OWN 35
-1
52.8%
DeAndre Torrey run for a loss of 1 yard to the NoTex 34Similar
Q2 12:13
3RD & 3
OWN 34
+2
51.8%
Jason Bean run for 2 yds to the NoTex 36Similar
Q2 12:13
4TH & 1
OWN 36
0
51.2%
Nic Smith run for no gain to the NoTex 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 8TD
8 plays · 36 yds · 3:0951% → 61%
Q2 10:49
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
48.6%
Aaron Allen pass incomplete to Isaiah Graham, broken up by Loronzo ThompsonSimilar
Q2 10:49
2ND & 10
OPP 36
-2
48.6%
Israel Tucker run for a loss of 2 yards to the NoTex 38Similar
Q2 10:49
3RD & 12
OPP 38
+12
49.8%
Aaron Allen pass complete to Griffin Hebert for 12 yds to the NoTex 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:49
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
47.9%
Aaron Allen pass incomplete to Wayne ToussantSimilar
Q2 10:49
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+3
48.1%
Israel Tucker run for 3 yds to the NoTex 23Similar
Q2 10:49
3RD & 7
OPP 23
+9
48.9%
Aaron Allen pass complete to Smoke Harris for 9 yds to the NoTex 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:49
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+12
47.9%
Aaron Allen pass complete to Smoke Harris for 12 yds to the NoTex 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
38.6%
Israel Tucker run for 2 yds for a TD (Jacob Barnes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 9FG
14 plays · 39 yds · 4:3542% → 45%
Q2 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
41.8%
DeAndre Torrey run for 3 yds to the NoTex 33Similar
Q2 7:40
2ND & 7
OWN 33
-6
42.0%
Jason Bean run for 9 yds to the NoTex 42 NORTH TEXAS Penalty, illegal block (-15 Yards) to the NoTex 27Similar
Q2 7:40
2ND & 13
OWN 27
-2
41.4%
Jason Bean sacked by Milton Williams and Keivie Rose for a loss of 2 yards to the NoTex 25Similar
Q2 7:40
3RD & 15
OWN 25
+20
40.5%
Jason Bean pass complete to Deonte Simpson for 20 yds to the NoTex 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+12
43.2%
Jason Bean pass complete to Jaelon Darden for 12 yds to the LaTch 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:40
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
44.2%
Jason Bean pass incomplete to Jaelon DardenSimilar
Q2 5:31
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+7
42.6%
Jason Bean run for 7 yds to the LaTch 36Similar
Q2 5:31
3RD & 3
OPP 36
+7
42.7%
Nic Smith run for 7 yds to the LaTch 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:31
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+3
44.1%
Nic Smith run for 3 yds to the LaTch 26Similar
Q2 5:31
2ND & 7
OPP 26
-5
44.1%
Jason Bean sacked by Jaiden Cole for a loss of 5 yards to the LaTch 31Similar
Q2 5:31
3RD & 12
OPP 31
0
41.3%
DeAndre Torrey run for no gain to the LaTch 31Similar
Q2 3:05
4TH & 12
OPP 31
+48
45.0%
Ethan Mooney 48 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 10TD
15 plays · 64 yds · 2:5258% → 71%
Q2 3:05
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
42.3%
Israel Tucker run for 3 yds to the LaTch 39Similar
Q2 3:05
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+15
41.5%
NORTH TEXAS Penalty, roughing passer (Tyreke Davis) to the NoTex 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:05
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+8
40.9%
Luke Anthony pass complete to Cee Jay Powell for 8 yds to the NoTex 38Similar
Q2 3:05
2ND & 2
OPP 38
+6
40.6%
Israel Tucker run for 6 yds to the NoTex 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:05
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-8
40.0%
LOUISIANA TECH Penalty, intentional grounding (Luke Anthony) to the NoTex 40Similar
Q2 3:05
2ND & 18
OPP 40
0
41.9%
Luke Anthony pass incomplete to Griffin HebertSimilar
Q2 3:05
3RD & 18
OPP 40
+24
43.2%
Israel Tucker run for 24 yds to the NoTex 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:05
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
39.7%
Israel Tucker run for no gain to the NoTex 16Similar
Q2 0:32
2ND & 10
OPP 16
0
39.6%
Luke Anthony pass incomplete to Griffin HebertSimilar
Q2 0:25
3RD & 10
OPP 16
+5
40.7%
Luke Anthony pass complete to Smoke Harris for 5 yds to the NoTex 11Similar
Q2 0:25
4TH & 5
OPP 11
+6
42.1%
NORTH TEXAS Penalty, personal foul (Dayton LeBlanc) to the NoTex 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
28.6%
Luke Anthony pass complete to Kyle Maxwell for 5 yds for a TD (Jacob Barnes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 11END OF HALF
2 plays · 9 yds · 0:0034% → 34%
Q2 0:13
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+9
34.1%
Jason Bean pass complete to Jaelon Darden for 9 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · -15 yds · 0:0069% → 67%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+3
30.9%
Israel Tucker run for 3 yds to the NoTex 27Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 27
-5
30.8%
LOUISIANA TECH Penalty, false start (Dakota White) to the NoTex 32Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 12
OPP 32
-1
31.0%
Israel Tucker run for a loss of 1 yard to the NoTex 33Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 13
OPP 33
-12
31.7%
Aaron Allen sacked by Jordan Brown for a loss of 12 yards to the NoTex 45Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 25
OPP 45
0
32.9%
Jacob Barnes punt for 45 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 0:0031% → 29%
Q3 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-4
30.6%
DeAndre Torrey run for a loss of 4 yards to the NoTex 16Similar
Q3 12:20
2ND & 14
OWN 16
-1
30.4%
Jason Bean run for a loss of 1 yard to the NoTex 15Similar
Q3 12:20
3RD & 15
OWN 15
-5
29.3%
NORTH TEXAS Penalty, false start (Daizion Carroll) to the NoTex 10Similar
Q3 12:20
3RD & 20
OWN 10
+5
29.3%
Jason Bean run for 5 yds to the NoTex 15Similar
Q3 12:20
4TH & 15
OWN 15
0
28.8%
Bernardo Rodriguez punt for 38 yds, downed at the LaTch 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 14TD
12 plays · 53 yds · 5:2273% → 90%
Q3 10:35
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-9
27.4%
Luke Anthony sacked by Grayson Murphy for a loss of 9 yards to the LaTch 38Similar
Q3 10:35
2ND & 19
OWN 38
+14
28.4%
Israel Tucker run for 14 yds to the NoTex 48Similar
Q3 10:35
3RD & 5
OPP 48
+7
27.8%
Luke Anthony pass complete to Isaiah Graham for 7 yds to the NoTex 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:35
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
27.5%
Luke Anthony pass incomplete to Isaiah GrahamSimilar
Q3 10:35
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+11
27.5%
Israel Tucker run for 11 yds to the NoTex 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:35
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+9
27.3%
Israel Tucker run for 9 yds to the NoTex 21Similar
Q3 10:35
2ND & 1
OPP 21
+3
27.1%
Israel Tucker run for 3 yds to the NoTex 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:35
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-2
27.1%
Luke Anthony pass complete to Cee Jay Powell for a loss of 2 yards to the NoTex 20Similar
Q3 10:35
2ND & 12
OPP 20
+5
27.3%
Luke Anthony pass complete to Greg Garner for 5 yds to the NoTex 15Similar
Q3 10:35
3RD & 7
OPP 15
+8
27.5%
Luke Anthony pass complete to Isaiah Graham for 8 yds to the NoTex 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+1
26.9%
Israel Tucker run for 1 yd to the NoTex 6Similar
Q3 5:13
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
9.9%
Luke Anthony pass complete to Smoke Harris for 6 yds for a TD (Jacob Barnes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 15TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 0:5014% → 29%
Q3 5:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+34
14.2%
Nic Smith run for 34 yds to the LaTch 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:13
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+8
16.0%
Nic Smith run for 8 yds to the LaTch 33Similar
Q3 4:23
2ND & 2
OPP 33
+33
28.8%
Jason Bean pass complete to Jaelon Darden for 33 yds for a TD (Ethan Mooney KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 16TD
11 plays · 58 yds · 3:0277% → 94%
Q3 4:23
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+21
22.7%
Luke Anthony pass complete to Cee Jay Powell for 21 yds to the NoTex 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:53
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+13
21.3%
Luke Anthony pass complete to Kyle Maxwell for 13 yds to the NoTex 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:53
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+10
20.7%
Israel Tucker run for 10 yds to the NoTex 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:53
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+7
20.7%
NORTH TEXAS Penalty, Defensive holding (Upton Stout) to the NoTex 7Similar
Q3 3:53
1ST & 3
OPP 7
0
20.7%
Israel Tucker run for no gain to the NoTex 7Similar
Q3 3:53
2ND & 3
OPP 7
0
20.7%
Luke Anthony pass incomplete to Isaiah GrahamSimilar
Q3 3:53
3RD & 3
OPP 7
+5
21.2%
NORTH TEXAS Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Makyle Sanders) to the NoTex 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
20.5%
Greg Garner run for 1 yd to the NoTex 1Similar
Q3 1:21
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
5.6%
Israel Tucker run for 1 yd for a TD (Jacob Barnes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 17PUNT
6 plays · -15 yds · 1:2113% → 10%
Q3 1:21
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+1
12.9%
Nic Smith run for 1 yd to the LaTch 34Similar
Q3 1:21
2ND & 9
OPP 34
-11
12.9%
Jason Bean sacked by Mykol Clark for a loss of 11 yards to the LaTch 45Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 20
OPP 45
0
9.8%
Jason Bean run for no gain to the LaTch 45Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 20
OPP 45
-5
9.7%
NORTH TEXAS Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 25
50
0
9.6%
Bernardo Rodriguez punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Smoke Harris at the LaTch 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
Q4 14:08
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+3
5.6%
Harlan Dixon run for 3 yds to the LaTch 16Similar
Q4 14:08
2ND & 7
OWN 16
0
5.6%
Aaron Allen pass incomplete to Kyle MaxwellSimilar
Q4 14:08
3RD & 7
OWN 16
+5
6.0%
Aaron Allen pass complete to Smoke Harris for 5 yds to the LaTch 21Similar
Q4 14:08
4TH & 2
OWN 21
0
6.1%
Jacob Barnes punt for 31 yds, downed at the NoTex 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 19TD
8 plays · 52 yds · 2:037% → 18%
Q4 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
7.0%
Jason Bean pass incomplete to Jaelon DardenSimilar
Q4 12:40
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+19
7.0%
Jason Bean pass complete to Jake Roberts for 19 yds to the LaTch 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:40
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+4
7.9%
Jason Bean pass complete to Roderic Burns for 4 yds to the LaTch 29Similar
Q4 12:40
2ND & 6
OPP 29
+6
8.0%
Nic Smith run for 6 yds to the LaTch 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:40
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+2
8.0%
Nic Smith run for 2 yds to the LaTch 21Similar
Q4 12:40
2ND & 8
OPP 21
+4
8.0%
Nic Smith run for 4 yds to the LaTch 17Similar
Q4 12:40
3RD & 4
OPP 17
+7
7.8%
Nic Smith run for 7 yds to the LaTch 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
18.4%
Jason Bean pass complete to Jaelon Darden for 10 yds for a TD (Ethan Mooney KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0086% → 86%
Q4 10:37
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+6
13.7%
Israel Tucker run for 6 yds to the LaTch 39Similar
Q4 10:37
2ND & 4
OWN 39
-2
12.9%
Israel Tucker run for a loss of 2 yards to the LaTch 37Similar
Q4 10:37
3RD & 6
OWN 37
0
13.5%
Aaron Allen pass incomplete to Cee Jay Powell, broken up by Jordan BrownSimilar
Q4 10:37
4TH & 6
OWN 37
0
14.0%
Jacob Barnes punt for 20 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NoTex 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 21DOWNS
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0015% → 14%
Q4 8:50
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
14.8%
Nic Smith run for 4 yds to the NoTex 47Similar
Q4 8:50
2ND & 6
OWN 47
+2
15.4%
Nic Smith run for 2 yds to the NoTex 49Similar
Q4 8:50
3RD & 4
OWN 49
0
15.1%
Nic Smith run for no gain to the NoTex 49Similar
Q4 8:50
4TH & 4
OWN 49
0
13.7%
Jason Bean pass incomplete to Deion Hair-GriffinSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 22INT
2 plays · 5 yds · 0:0091% → 91%
Q4 7:14
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
8.9%
Luke Anthony pass complete to Smoke Harris for 5 yds to the NoTex 44Similar
Q4 7:14
2ND & 5
OPP 44
-19
8.6%
Luke Anthony pass intercepted Makyle Sanders return for 19 yds to the NoTex 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 23MISSED FG
7 plays · 15 yds · 1:3511% → 9%
Q4 6:31
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+8
11.4%
Jason Bean pass complete to Deonte Simpson for 8 yds to the LaTch 44Similar
Q4 6:31
2ND & 2
OPP 44
0
12.7%
Nic Smith run for no gain to the LaTch 44Similar
Q4 6:31
3RD & 2
OPP 44
+7
12.5%
Jason Bean pass complete to Jaelon Darden for 7 yds to the LaTch 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:31
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
12.2%
Jason Bean pass incomplete to Upton StoutSimilar
Q4 6:31
2ND & 10
OPP 37
0
12.0%
Jason Bean pass incomplete to Jordan BrownSimilar
Q4 6:31
3RD & 10
OPP 37
0
11.5%
Jason Bean pass incomplete, broken up by Tyler GrubbsSimilar
Q4 4:56
4TH & 10
OPP 37
+54
9.2%
Ethan Mooney 54 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 24PUNT
9 plays · 17 yds · 3:0392% → 96%
Q4 4:56
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
8.2%
Israel Tucker run for 2 yds to the LaTch 39Similar
Q4 4:56
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+7
8.0%
Israel Tucker run for 7 yds to the LaTch 46Similar
Q4 4:56
3RD & 1
OWN 46
+1
8.0%
Israel Tucker run for 1 yd to the LaTch 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:56
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
7.8%
Israel Tucker run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 4:56
2ND & 7
50
+4
7.8%
Israel Tucker run for 4 yds to the NoTex 46Similar
Q4 1:59
3RD & 3
OPP 46
0
3.8%
Israel Tucker run for no gain to the NoTex 46Similar
Q4 1:53
4TH & 3
OPP 46
0
3.8%
Jacob Barnes punt for 44 yds, downed at the NoTex 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 25DOWNS
8 plays · 9 yds · 0:003% → 2%
Q4 1:43
1ST & 10
OWN 2
0
2.5%
Jason Bean pass incomplete to Deonte SimpsonSimilar
Q4 1:43
2ND & 10
OWN 2
0
2.4%
Jason Bean pass incomplete to Jaelon DardenSimilar
Q4 1:43
3RD & 10
OWN 2
+13
2.4%
Jason Bean pass complete to Austin Ogunmakin for 13 yds to the NoTex 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:43
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-3
2.5%
Jason Bean sacked by Deshon Hall for a loss of 3 yards to the NoTex 12Similar
Q4 1:43
2ND & 13
OWN 12
+4
2.5%
Jason Bean pass complete to DeAndre Torrey for 4 yds to the NoTex 16Similar
Q4 1:43
3RD & 9
OWN 16
0
2.5%
Jason Bean pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:43
4TH & 9
OWN 16
-5
2.3%
NORTH TEXAS Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the NoTex 11Similar
Q4 1:43
4TH & 14
OWN 11
0
2.3%
Jason Bean pass incomplete to Deonte SimpsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 26END OF GAME
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q4 0:28
1ST & 10
OPP 11
-2
3.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the NoTex 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 5:13
Luke Anthony pass complete to Smoke Harris for 6 yds for a TD (Jacob Barnes KICK)
-17
TD · Q3 1:21
Israel Tucker run for 1 yd for a TD (Jacob Barnes KICK)
-14.8
TD · Q2 0:13
Luke Anthony pass complete to Kyle Maxwell for 5 yds for a TD (Jacob Barnes KICK)
-13.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com