2020 · Week 13 · Nov 28, 2020 · Husky Stadium
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Win probability · WASH
modelWASH aheadUTAH aheadconfidence bandkey playWASH scoreUTAH score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 0:00 · Dylan Morris pass intercepted Zemaiah Vaughn return for 73 yds to the Wash 27
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 0:42: Jake Bentley pass complete to Bryan Thompson for 13 yds for a TD, (Jadon Redding KICK) — UTAH win probability +13.8 pts (now 77%) (top driver: UTAH has the ball).
- TD · Q3 12:01: Kamari Pleasant run for 2 yds for a TD, (Peyton Henry KICK) — WASH win probability +12.6 pts (now 40%) (top driver: WASH has the ball).
- TD · Q3 2:49: Dylan Morris pass complete to Cade Otton for 21 yds for a TD, (Peyton Henry KICK) — WASH win probability +20.7 pts (now 55%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
- TD · Q4 0:36: Dylan Morris pass complete to Cade Otton for 16 yds for a TD, (Peyton Henry KICK) — WASH win probability +55.6 pts (now 94%) (top driver: WASH has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q4 0:05: TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Wash 14 — WASH win probability +23.5 pts (now 94%) (top driver: WASH has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
WASH made the numbers' call on 6 of 7UTAH made the numbers' call on 3 of 5
- Q1 5:49UTAH 4th & 4 at WASH 42, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 28.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call28.9%48% to convertField goal28.6%−0.330% to makePunt28.7%−0.2average punt
- Q1 0:04WASH 4th & 4 at WASH 32, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.5% before the snapGo for it64.8%−0.348% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call65.1%average punt
- Q2 12:05UTAH 4th & 3 at WASH 46, up 7Close callPunted · 38.1% before the snapGo for it38.5%52% to convertField goal37.0%−1.423% to makePuntTheir call37.8%−0.7average punt
- Q2 10:25WASH 4th & 5 at WASH 13, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.6% before the snapGo for it60.2%−0.540% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call60.7%average punt
- Q2 5:35WASH 4th & 4 at UTAH 37, down 14Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 48.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call48.6%48% to convertField goal47.7%−0.940% to makePunt47.4%−1.2average punt
- Q2 3:51WASH 4th & 10 at UTAH 22, down 14Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 46.3% before the snapGo for it45.4%−0.728% to convertField goalTheir call46.1%72% to makePunt42.3%−3.8average punt
- Q2 0:00WASH 4th & 1 at UTAH 41, down 21Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 29.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call31.0%70% to convertField goal28.5%−2.632% to makePunt29.1%−1.9average punt
- Q3 7:21WASH 4th & 7 at UTAH 8, down 14Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 30.5% before the snapGo for it29.7%−0.529% to convertField goalTheir call30.2%90% to makePunt22.4%−7.8average punt
- Q3 3:55UTAH 4th & 1 at WASH 41, up 11Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 68.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call68.3%70% to convertField goal63.6%−4.732% to makePunt64.3%−4.0average punt
- Q4 12:32WASH 4th & 5 at WASH 48, down 4Close callPunted · 46.2% before the snapGo for it46.0%41% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call45.5%−0.5average punt
- Q4 8:20UTAH 4th & 1 at WASH 48, up 4Numbers favored go for it by 6.1 ptsPunted · 67.2% before the snapGo for it67.8%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call61.7%−6.1average punt
- Q4 4:31UTAH 4th & 19 at UTAH 41, up 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.5% before the snapGo for it65.7%−8.011% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call73.7%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WASH made the numbers' call on 3 of 3UTAH made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
- Q1 2:18UTAH Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call32.8%97% to makeGo for two32.8%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 7:55UTAH Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call47.5%97% to makeGo for two47.5%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:42UTAH Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call69.8%97% to makeGo for two69.8%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 12:01WASH Touchdown, down 15 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call32.7%97% to makeGo for two32.5%−0.245% to convert
- Q3 2:49WASH Touchdown, down 5 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call46.8%97% to makeGo for two46.5%−0.345% to convert
- Q4 0:36WASH Touchdown, up 2 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call81.2%97% to makeGo for two79.6%−1.645% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartUTAHDrive 1FUMBLE9 plays · 39 yds · 3:4325% → 26%
Q1 14:18
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+33
75.2%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Bryan Thompson for 33 yds to the Wash 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:35
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
75.0%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Brant Kuithe for no gain to the Wash 38Similar
Q1 10:53
3RD & 15
OPP 29
-7
74.4%
Jake Bentley sacked by Zion Tupuola-Fetui for a loss of 7 yards to the Wash 36 Jake Bentley fumbled, forced by Zion Tupuola-Fetui, recovered by Wash Jackson Sirmon , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 2INT6 plays · 24 yds · 2:4775% → 74%
UTAHDrive 3TD10 plays · 48 yds · 5:3027% → 34%
Q1 6:27
3RD & 6
OPP 44
+2
72.6%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Solomon Enis for 2 yds to the Wash 42Similar
Q1 5:15
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+3
71.9%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Brant Kuithe for 3 yds to the Wash 31Similar
Q1 3:59
3RD & 4
OPP 28
+8
71.6%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Brant Kuithe for 8 yds to the Wash 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:23
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+5
71.0%
WASHINGTON Penalty, Defensive Offside (Jackson Sirmon) to the Wash 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 4PUNT5 plays · 6 yds · 2:0968% → 66%
Q1 2:13
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+1
67.9%
Dylan Morris pass complete to Terrell Bynum for 1 yd to the Wash 27Similar
Q1 0:42
3RD & 9
OWN 27
+5
66.3%
Dylan Morris pass complete to Terrell Bynum for 5 yds to the Wash 32Similar
Q1 0:04
4TH & 4
OWN 32
+4
66.0%
Race Porter punt for 35 yds , Britain Covey returns for 4 yds to the Utah 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 5PUNT6 plays · 17 yds · 2:5535% → 37%
WASHDrive 6PUNT4 plays · 5 yds · 1:3064% → 62%
Q2 10:25
4TH & 5
OWN 13
0
62.1%
Race Porter punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Britain Covey at the Utah 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 7TD5 plays · 59 yds · 2:2039% → 50%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 8MISSED FG13 plays · 53 yds · 3:5651% → 47%
Q2 7:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
50.9%
Dylan Morris pass complete to Sean McGrew for 6 yds to the Wash 31Similar
Q2 6:18
3RD & 12
OPP 45
+8
50.2%
Dylan Morris pass complete to Kamari Pleasant for 8 yds to the Utah 37Similar
Q2 5:35
4TH & 4
OPP 37
+15
49.9%
Dylan Morris pass complete to Puka Nacua for 15 yds to the Utah 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 9TD10 plays · 78 yds · 3:0355% → 77%
Q2 1:21
3RD & 4
OWN 39
+19
39.3%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Bryan Thompson for 19 yds to the Wash 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:03
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+15
38.0%
WASHINGTON Penalty, Roughing Passer (Zion Tupuola-Fetui) to the Wash 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:42
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
23.4%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Bryan Thompson for 13 yds for a TD, (Jadon Redding KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 10INT9 plays · 34 yds · 0:3730% → 30%
Q2 0:24
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+14
29.2%
Dylan Morris pass complete to Ty Jones for 14 yds to the Wash 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:16
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+11
30.5%
Dylan Morris pass complete to Kamari Pleasant for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:05
2ND & 10
50
+4
30.2%
Dylan Morris pass complete to Kamari Pleasant for 4 yds to the Utah 46Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 1
OPP 41
-73
29.9%
Dylan Morris pass intercepted Zemaiah Vaughn return for 73 yds to the Wash 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 11TD7 plays · 72 yds · 2:4628% → 40%
UTAHDrive 12INT5 plays · 15 yds · 1:5365% → 72%
Q3 10:02
3RD & 6
OWN 40
-24
28.5%
Jake Bentley pass intercepted Elijah Molden return for 24 yds to the Utah 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 13FG7 plays · 19 yds · 2:4037% → 37%
Q3 9:08
3RD & 10
OPP 27
+16
34.2%
Dylan Morris pass complete to Cade Otton for 16 yds to the Utah 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 14DOWNS8 plays · 34 yds · 3:1665% → 68%
Q3 6:25
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+19
35.0%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Ty Jordan for 19 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 15TD3 plays · 58 yds · 0:5833% → 55%
Q3 3:13
2ND & 9
OPP 36
+36
34.5%
Dylan Morris pass complete to Cade Otton for 21 yds to the WASHINGTON 36 for a 1ST down UTAH Penalty, Personal Foul (Mika Tafua) to the Utah 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:49
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+21
55.2%
Dylan Morris pass complete to Cade Otton for 21 yds for a TD, (Peyton Henry KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 16FUMBLE8 plays · 61 yds · 3:1855% → 64%
Q3 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
45.0%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Brant Kuithe for 12 yds to the Utah 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:10
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+3
38.4%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Devin Brumfield for 3 yds to the Wash 25Similar
Q4 14:12
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+29
36.3%
Ty Jordan run for a loss of 2 yards to the Wash 43 Ty Jordan fumbled, forced by Kyler Gordon, recovered by Wash Zion Tupuola-Fetui , return for 29 yds to the Wash 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 17PUNT4 plays · 5 yds · 1:3549% → 46%
Q4 13:12
3RD & 10
OWN 43
+5
45.2%
Dylan Morris pass complete to Puka Nacua for 5 yds to the Wash 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 18PUNT7 plays · 32 yds · 4:0160% → 68%
Q4 12:21
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+11
39.9%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Devin Brumfield for 11 yds to the Utah 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:17
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+6
33.1%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Ty Jordan for 6 yds to the Utah 49Similar
Q4 8:20
4TH & 1
OPP 48
+42
32.5%
Ben Lennon punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Trent McDuffie at the Wash 12 WASHINGTON Penalty, Personal Foul (Dominique Hampton) to the Wash 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 19INT3 plays · 13 yds · 1:2840% → 42%
Q4 7:35
2ND & 7
OWN 9
+10
39.4%
Dylan Morris pass complete to Puka Nacua for 10 yds to the Wash 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:47
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-28
42.1%
Dylan Morris pass intercepted Vonte Davis return for 18 yds to the Wash 37 UTAH Penalty, Illegal Block (Maxs Tupai) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 20PUNT4 plays · -9 yds · 2:1174% → 73%
WASHDrive 21TD12 plays · 88 yds · 3:4533% → 94%
Q4 3:02
3RD & 10
OWN 27
+14
28.7%
Dylan Morris pass complete to Puka Nacua for 14 yds to the Wash 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:32
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+15
34.5%
Dylan Morris pass complete to Puka Nacua for 15 yds to the Utah 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:52
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+7
33.0%
Dylan Morris pass complete to Cade Otton for 7 yds to the Utah 37Similar
Q4 1:09
3RD & 3
OPP 37
+9
35.3%
Dylan Morris pass complete to Cade Otton for 9 yds to the Utah 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:44
2ND & 8
OPP 26
+10
38.8%
Dylan Morris pass complete to Kamari Pleasant for 10 yds to the Utah 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:36
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
94.4%
Dylan Morris pass complete to Cade Otton for 16 yds for a TD, (Peyton Henry KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 22INT5 plays · 5 yds · 0:1921% → 29%
Q4 0:26
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
78.8%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Devin Brumfield for 5 yds to the Utah 35Similar
Q4 0:07
3RD & 5
OPP 30
-15
70.8%
Jake Bentley pass intercepted Trent McDuffie return for no gain to the Wash 35 WASHINGTON Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (15 Yards) to the Wash 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 23END OF GAME5 plays · -7 yds · 0:0594% → 95%
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:36
Dylan Morris pass complete to Cade Otton for 16 yds for a TD, (Peyton Henry KICK)
+55.6
KEY PLAY · Q4 0:05
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Wash 14
+23.5
TD · Q3 2:49
Dylan Morris pass complete to Cade Otton for 21 yds for a TD, (Peyton Henry KICK)
+20.7