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TLSA

Tulsa 24 at Cincinnati 27

CIN
2020 · Week 16 · Dec 19, 2020 · Nippert Stadium
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Win probability · CIN
modelCIN aheadTLSA aheadconfidence bandkey playCIN scoreTLSA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGTDTDTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 5:51 · Lachlan Wilson punt for 52 yds for a touchback
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+31.5+15.80−15.8−31.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 28Pregame prior+27.3Home team on offense+1.5Garbage-time factor+0.0Score differential+0.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.4Blowout margin+0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 3:17: Desmond Ridder pass complete to Alec Pierce for 36 yds for a TD (Cole Smith KICK) — CIN win probability +6.6 pts (now 83%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 10:05: Deneric Prince run for 8 yds for a TD (Zack Long KICK) — TLSA win probability +13.9 pts (now 38%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 7:14: Desmond Ridder run for 10 yds for a TD (Cole Smith KICK) — CIN win probability +12.1 pts (now 85%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 3:41: Zach Smith pass complete to JuanCarlos Santana for 13 yds for a TD (Zack Long KICK) — TLSA win probability +39.5 pts (now 52%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 0:00: Cole Smith 34 yd FG GOOD — CIN win probability +34.7 pts (now 94%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CIN made the numbers' call on 6 of 7TLSA made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
  1. Q1 13:24CIN 4th & 1 at CIN 44, tied
    Close callPunted · 81.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.4%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:51TLSA 4th & 13 at TLSA 48, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.2%−0.2
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.4%
    average punt
  3. Q1 0:05CIN 4th & 8 at TLSA 8, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 81.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.7%−0.2
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    81.0%
    90% to make
    Punt
    78.8%−2.1
    average punt
  4. Q2 11:08TLSA 4th & 10 at CIN 26, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 18.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.0%−0.4
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    18.4%
    64% to make
    Punt
    15.9%−2.5
    average punt
  5. Q2 6:09CIN 4th & 17 at CIN 38, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.7%−1.7
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.4%
    average punt
  6. Q2 5:21TLSA 4th & 6 at TLSA 20, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.0%−0.3
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.3%
    average punt
  7. Q2 2:27TLSA 4th & 17 at TLSA 28, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.8%−1.3
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.2%
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:42TLSA 4th & 18 at CIN 19, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 19.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.1%−1.9
    11% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    20.0%
    77% to make
    Punt
    15.7%−4.3
    average punt
  9. Q3 11:57TLSA 4th & 13 at TLSA 46, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.0%−1.8
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.8%
    average punt
  10. Q3 10:50CIN 4th & 15 at CIN 16, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.5%−2.4
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.9%
    average punt
  11. Q4 12:41CIN 4th & 2 at TLSA 5, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 87.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    86.9%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    85.2%−1.7
    92% to make
    Punt
    76.3%−10.6
    average punt
  12. Q4 11:01TLSA 4th & 15 at TLSA 3, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.9%−3.5
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.4%
    average punt
  13. Q4 6:27CIN 4th & 17 at TLSA 19, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 89.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.6%−3.2
    13% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    89.8%
    77% to make
    Punt
    81.3%−8.4
    average punt
  14. Q4 0:00CIN 4th & 8 at TLSA 17, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 60.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.1%−17.3
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    63.4%
    80% to make
    Punt
    31.3%−32.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CIN made the numbers' call on 3 of 3TLSA made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 8:56CIN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 8:36TLSA Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    24.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    24.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 3:17CIN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 10:05TLSA Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    29.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    28.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 7:14CIN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 3:41TLSA Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    39.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CINDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:2682% → 81%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
81.5%
Desmond Ridder pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:42
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+1
81.4%
Gerrid Doaks run for 1 yd to the Cincy 36Similar
Q1 14:00
3RD & 9
OWN 36
+8
81.2%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Michael Young Jr. for 8 yds to the Cincy 44Similar
Q1 13:24
4TH & 1
OWN 44
0
81.1%
James Smith punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Keylon Stokes at the Tulsa 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 2INT
7 plays · 40 yds · 2:2719% → 20%
Q1 13:17
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
81.1%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Cannon MontgomerySimilar
Q1 13:05
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+12
81.0%
Corey Taylor II run for 12 yds to the Tulsa 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+18
80.9%
Zach Smith pass complete to JuanCarlos Santana for 18 yds JuanCarlos Santana fumbled, forced by Coby Bryant, recovered by Tulsa Keylon Stokes for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:05
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-1
80.6%
Corey Taylor II run for a loss of 1 yard to the Tulsa 44Similar
Q1 11:45
2ND & 11
OWN 44
+4
80.5%
Zach Smith pass complete to JuanCarlos Santana for 4 yds to the Tulsa 48Similar
Q1 11:05
3RD & 7
OWN 48
+7
80.2%
Zach Smith pass complete to Josh Johnson for 7 yds to the Cincy 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:50
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
80.0%
Zach Smith pass intercepted Jarell White return for no gain to the Cincy 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 3TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:5480% → 82%
Q1 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
80.4%
CINCINNATI Penalty, False Start (Jake Renfro) to the Cincy 20Similar
Q1 10:42
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+1
80.3%
Gerrid Doaks run for 1 yd to the Cincy 21Similar
Q1 10:00
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+31
80.1%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Alec Pierce for 31 yds to the Tulsa 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:31
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+6
80.5%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Jayshon Jackson for 6 yds to the Tulsa 42Similar
Q1 8:56
2ND & 4
OPP 42
+42
81.7%
Jerome Ford run for 42 yds for a TD (Cole Smith KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 4PUNT
11 plays · 23 yds · 2:4919% → 19%
Q1 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
81.2%
Corey Taylor II run for 7 yds to the Tulsa 32Similar
Q1 8:20
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+8
81.0%
Corey Taylor II run for 8 yds to the Tulsa 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-3
81.0%
Corey Taylor II run for a loss of 3 yards to the Tulsa 37Similar
Q1 7:29
2ND & 13
OWN 37
0
81.2%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Deneric PrinceSimilar
Q1 7:11
3RD & 13
OWN 37
+14
81.3%
Zach Smith pass complete to JuanCarlos Santana for 14 yds to the Cincy 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:45
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+2
80.6%
Corey Taylor II run for 2 yds to the Cincy 47Similar
Q1 6:30
2ND & 8
OPP 47
-5
80.6%
TULSA Penalty, False Start (TEAM) to the Tulsa 48Similar
Q1 6:05
2ND & 13
OWN 48
0
80.9%
Zach Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:59
3RD & 13
OWN 48
0
81.1%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Josh JohnsonSimilar
Q1 5:51
4TH & 13
OWN 48
0
81.3%
Lachlan Wilson punt for 52 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 5FG
15 plays · 72 yds · 5:3681% → 81%
Q1 5:41
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
81.2%
Desmond Ridder run for 5 yds to the Cincy 25Similar
Q1 5:03
2ND & 5
OWN 25
-5
81.2%
CINCINNATI Penalty, False Start (Jake Renfro) to the Cincy 20Similar
Q1 4:45
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+15
81.1%
Desmond Ridder run for 15 yds to the Cincy 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:32
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
81.2%
TULSA Penalty, Defensive Offside (Allie Green IV) to the Cincy 40Similar
Q1 4:01
1ST & 5
OWN 40
+2
81.7%
Gerrid Doaks run for 2 yds to the Cincy 42Similar
Q1 3:49
2ND & 3
OWN 42
-5
81.7%
CINCINNATI Penalty, False Start (Bruno Labelle) to the Cincy 37Similar
Q1 3:14
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+5
81.3%
Jerome Ford run for 5 yds to the Cincy 42Similar
Q1 2:42
3RD & 3
OWN 42
+9
81.4%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Leonard Taylor for 9 yds to the Tulsa 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:02
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+1
81.5%
Tre Tucker run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 48Similar
Q1 1:33
2ND & 9
OPP 48
+45
81.5%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Alec Pierce for 45 yds to the Tulsa 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
81.7%
Gerrid Doaks run for no gain to the Tulsa 3Similar
Q1 0:36
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
-5
81.7%
CINCINNATI Penalty, False Start (Darius Harper) to the Tulsa 8Similar
Q1 0:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
0
81.7%
Desmond Ridder pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:08
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
0
81.4%
Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Leonard TaylorSimilar
Q1 0:05
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
+25
81.4%
Cole Smith 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 6FG
13 plays · 46 yds · 3:4719% → 19%
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+6
81.3%
Keylon Stokes run for 6 yds to the Tulsa 34Similar
Q2 14:16
2ND & 4
OWN 34
+4
80.9%
Corey Taylor II run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
80.9%
Keylon Stokes run for no gain to the Tulsa 38Similar
Q2 13:32
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+13
81.2%
Corey Taylor II run for 13 yds to the Cincy 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:04
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+12
80.7%
Zach Smith pass complete to Sam Crawford Jr. for 12 yds to the Cincy 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:41
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+8
80.6%
Corey Taylor II run for 8 yds to the Cincy 29Similar
Q2 12:19
2ND & 2
OPP 29
+3
79.9%
Deneric Prince run for 3 yds to the Cincy 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
79.9%
Deneric Prince run for no gain to the Cincy 26Similar
Q2 11:17
2ND & 10
OPP 26
0
80.0%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Josh JohnsonSimilar
Q2 11:13
3RD & 10
OPP 26
0
81.3%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Keylon StokesSimilar
Q2 11:08
4TH & 10
OPP 26
+43
80.8%
Zack Long 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 7FUMBLE
4 plays · -5 yds · 0:4881% → 81%
Q2 11:01
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+1
81.3%
Jerome Ford run for 1 yd to the Cincy 34Similar
Q2 10:19
2ND & 9
OWN 34
0
81.2%
Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Michael Young Jr.Similar
Q2 10:13
3RD & 9
OWN 34
-6
80.9%
Desmond Ridder sacked by Cullen Wick for a loss of 6 yards to the Cincy 28 Desmond Ridder fumbled, forced by Cullen Wick, recovered by Tulsa Jaxon Player , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 8TD
5 plays · 28 yds · 1:2321% → 28%
Q2 9:59
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+4
78.9%
Corey Taylor II run for 4 yds to the Cincy 24Similar
Q2 9:36
2ND & 6
OPP 24
+7
78.8%
Corey Taylor II run for 7 yds to the Cincy 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:11
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+3
78.8%
Zach Smith pass complete to Ethan Hall for 3 yds to the Cincy 14Similar
Q2 8:41
2ND & 7
OPP 14
+4
78.7%
Corey Taylor II run for 4 yds to the Cincy 10Similar
Q2 8:36
3RD & 3
OPP 10
+10
72.3%
Corey Taylor II run for 10 yds for a TD (Zack Long KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 9PUNT
7 plays · -7 yds · 2:1277% → 74%
Q2 8:21
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
77.1%
Gerrid Doaks run for no gain to the Cincy 45Similar
Q2 8:00
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+5
76.5%
TULSA Penalty, Delay of Game (Justin Wright) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 7:22
2ND & 5
50
+2
77.0%
Gerrid Doaks run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 48Similar
Q2 7:00
3RD & 3
OPP 48
-9
76.7%
Desmond Ridder sacked by Treyvon Reeves for a loss of 9 yards to the Cincy 43Similar
Q2 6:21
4TH & 12
OWN 43
-5
74.3%
CINCINNATI Penalty, Delay of Game (TEAM) to the Cincy 38Similar
Q2 6:09
4TH & 17
OWN 38
0
74.0%
James Smith punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Keylon Stokes at the Tulsa 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:3828% → 27%
Q2 5:59
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+4
72.2%
Deneric Prince run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 20Similar
Q2 5:41
2ND & 6
OWN 20
0
72.1%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to JuanCarlos SantanaSimilar
Q2 5:37
3RD & 6
OWN 20
0
72.6%
Zach Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:21
4TH & 6
OWN 20
0
73.2%
Lachlan Wilson punt for 44 yds, downed at the Cincy 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 11TD
5 plays · 64 yds · 1:5975% → 83%
Q2 5:16
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
75.3%
Desmond Ridder pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:58
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+7
75.0%
Desmond Ridder run for 7 yds to the Cincy 43Similar
Q2 4:28
3RD & 3
OWN 43
+14
75.5%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Alec Pierce for 14 yds to the Tulsa 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:01
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+7
76.3%
Gerrid Doaks run for 7 yds to the Tulsa 36Similar
Q2 3:17
2ND & 3
OPP 36
+36
83.0%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Alec Pierce for 36 yds for a TD (Cole Smith KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 12PUNT
7 plays · -7 yds · 0:4519% → 18%
Q2 3:12
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
80.7%
Corey Taylor II run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 38Similar
Q2 3:05
2ND & 7
OWN 38
-15
80.2%
TULSA Penalty, Personal Foul (Dylan Couch) to the Tulsa 23Similar
Q2 2:48
2ND & 22
OWN 23
0
81.2%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Josh JohnsonSimilar
Q2 2:42
3RD & 22
OWN 23
+5
81.7%
CINCINNATI Penalty, Defensive Offside (Elijah Ponder) to the Tulsa 28Similar
Q2 2:34
3RD & 17
OWN 28
0
81.7%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Keylon StokesSimilar
Q2 2:27
4TH & 17
OWN 28
0
82.1%
Lachlan Wilson punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Ryan Montgomery at the Cincy 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 13FUMBLE
1 play · 9 yds · 0:0082% → 82%
Q2 2:17
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+9
81.6%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Tre Tucker for 9 yds Tre Tucker fumbled, forced by Treyvon Reeves, recovered by Tulsa Justin Wright , return for 6 yds to the Cincy 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 14MISSED FG
8 plays · 15 yds · 1:3022% → 19%
Q2 2:12
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+6
78.1%
Keylon Stokes run for 6 yds to the Cincy 28Similar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 4
OPP 23
+17
77.4%
Corey Taylor II run for 5 yds to the Cincy 23 for a 1ST down CINCINNATI Penalty, Illegal Use of Hands (Elijah Ponder) to the Cincy 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:20
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+2
77.3%
Corey Taylor II run for 2 yds to the Cincy 9Similar
Q2 1:00
2ND & 8
OPP 9
-10
77.3%
TULSA Penalty, Offensive Holding (Gerard Wheeler) to the Cincy 19Similar
Q2 0:53
2ND & 18
OPP 19
0
78.4%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Sam Crawford Jr.Similar
Q2 0:46
3RD & 18
OPP 19
0
79.4%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Josh JohnsonSimilar
Q2 0:42
4TH & 18
OPP 19
+36
81.0%
Zack Long 36 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 15END OF HALF
2 plays · 6 yds · 0:2181% → 80%
Q2 0:21
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
80.5%
Jerome Ford run for 3 yds to the Cincy 23Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+3
80.4%
Jerome Ford run for 3 yds to the Cincy 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 16PUNT
8 plays · 21 yds · 2:5820% → 19%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
80.0%
Corey Taylor II run for 8 yds to the Tulsa 33Similar
Q3 14:22
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+2
78.5%
Corey Taylor II run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:09
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+14
79.4%
Zach Smith pass complete to Keylon Stokes for 14 yds to the Tulsa 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:48
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+1
78.0%
Corey Taylor II run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 13:17
2ND & 9
50
+2
77.7%
Deneric Prince run for 2 yds to the Cincy 48Similar
Q3 13:00
3RD & 7
OPP 48
-6
77.9%
Zach Smith sacked by Curtis Brooks for a loss of 6 yards to the Tulsa 46Similar
Q3 11:57
4TH & 13
OWN 46
+9
80.8%
Lachlan Wilson punt for 42 yds , Ryan Montgomery returns for 9 yds to the Cincy 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 1:0781% → 79%
Q3 11:57
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-5
80.6%
CINCINNATI Penalty, False Start (James Hudson) to the Cincy 16Similar
Q3 11:52
1ST & 15
OWN 16
0
80.4%
Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Alec PierceSimilar
Q3 11:27
2ND & 15
OWN 16
0
80.2%
Desmond Ridder run for no gain to the Cincy 16Similar
Q3 11:02
3RD & 15
OWN 16
0
79.5%
Desmond Ridder pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:50
4TH & 15
OWN 16
+8
78.8%
James Smith punt for 47 yds , Keylon Stokes returns for 8 yds to the Tulsa 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 18TD
3 plays · 55 yds · 0:2522% → 38%
Q3 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+38
78.1%
Deneric Prince run for 38 yds to the Cincy 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:19
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+9
75.6%
Deneric Prince run for 9 yds to the Cincy 8Similar
Q3 10:05
2ND & 1
OPP 8
+8
61.7%
Deneric Prince run for 8 yds for a TD (Zack Long KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 19TD
8 plays · 65 yds · 2:4270% → 85%
Q3 9:56
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
69.6%
Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Bruno LabelleSimilar
Q3 9:41
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+15
69.4%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Jerome Ford for 15 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:28
1ST & 10
50
-5
72.2%
CINCINNATI Penalty, False Start (Jake Renfro) to the Cincy 45Similar
Q3 9:01
1ST & 15
OWN 45
+3
70.0%
Jerome Ford run for 3 yds to the Cincy 48Similar
Q3 8:45
2ND & 12
OWN 48
+27
70.2%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Josh Whyle for 27 yds to the Tulsa 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:48
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+15
72.9%
Desmond Ridder run for 15 yds to the Tulsa 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
84.9%
Desmond Ridder run for 10 yds for a TD (Cole Smith KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 20INT
11 plays · 18 yds · 3:0921% → 19%
Q3 7:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
79.5%
Deneric Prince run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 27Similar
Q3 6:43
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+4
79.2%
CINCINNATI Penalty, Defensive Offside (Curtis Brooks) to the Tulsa 31Similar
Q3 6:10
2ND & 4
OWN 31
-5
78.4%
TULSA Penalty, False Start (TEAM) to the Tulsa 26Similar
Q3 6:01
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
79.4%
Zach Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:45
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+13
80.3%
Zach Smith pass complete to Sam Crawford Jr. for 13 yds to the Tulsa 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:12
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+7
77.9%
Deneric Prince run for 7 yds to the Tulsa 46Similar
Q3 4:51
2ND & 3
OWN 46
+5
77.4%
Zach Smith pass complete to Keylon Stokes for 5 yds to the Cincy 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:10
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-8
76.8%
Zach Smith sacked by Myjai Sanders for a loss of 8 yards to the Tulsa 43Similar
Q3 3:53
2ND & 18
OWN 43
0
80.9%
Zach Smith pass intercepted Darrian Beavers return for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 21DOWNS
10 plays · 42 yds · 5:5386% → 89%
Q3 3:34
1ST & 10
50
+11
85.8%
Desmond Ridder run for 11 yds to the Tulsa 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:11
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+2
86.0%
Jerome Ford run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 37Similar
Q3 2:31
2ND & 8
OPP 37
0
86.8%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Jerome Ford for no gain to the Tulsa 37Similar
Q3 1:50
3RD & 8
OPP 37
+12
86.2%
Desmond Ridder run for 12 yds to the Tulsa 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:51
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+4
89.0%
Ryan Montgomery run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 21Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 6
OPP 21
+8
89.7%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Jordan Jones for 8 yds to the Tulsa 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+2
89.7%
Desmond Ridder run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 11Similar
Q4 14:01
2ND & 8
OPP 11
+1
89.9%
Desmond Ridder run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 10Similar
Q4 13:21
3RD & 7
OPP 10
+5
89.4%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Michael Young Jr. for 5 yds to the Tulsa 5Similar
Q4 12:41
4TH & 2
OPP 5
-3
88.7%
Jerome Ford run for a loss of 3 yards to the Tulsa 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 22PUNT
4 plays · -5 yds · 1:2815% → 13%
Q4 12:29
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+2
85.5%
Corey Taylor II run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 10Similar
Q4 11:57
2ND & 8
OWN 10
0
85.4%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to JuanCarlos SantanaSimilar
Q4 11:45
3RD & 8
OWN 10
-7
86.2%
Zach Smith sacked by Myjai Sanders for a loss of 7 yards to the Tulsa 3Similar
Q4 11:01
4TH & 15
OWN 3
+21
87.4%
Lachlan Wilson punt for 51 yds , Ryan Montgomery returns for 21 yds to the Tulsa 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 23MISSED FG
8 plays · 14 yds · 4:2191% → 91%
Q4 10:48
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-1
91.1%
Jerome Ford run for a loss of 1 yard to the Tulsa 34Similar
Q4 9:59
2ND & 11
OPP 34
+8
90.8%
Desmond Ridder run for 8 yds to the Tulsa 26Similar
Q4 9:11
3RD & 3
OPP 26
+14
90.6%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Bruno Labelle for 14 yds to the Tulsa 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:32
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+4
91.2%
Desmond Ridder run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 8Similar
Q4 8:20
2ND & 6
OPP 8
-5
91.5%
CINCINNATI Penalty, False Start (Leonard Taylor) to the Tulsa 13Similar
Q4 7:57
2ND & 11
OPP 13
-7
91.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 7 yards to the Tulsa 20 TEAM fumbled, recovered by Cincy Desmond RidderSimilar
Q4 6:38
3RD & 18
OPP 20
+1
91.3%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Jerome Ford for 1 yd to the Tulsa 19Similar
Q4 6:27
4TH & 17
OPP 19
+37
90.5%
Cole Smith 37 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Jaxon PlayerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 24TD
8 plays · 80 yds · 2:3011% → 52%
Q4 6:11
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
88.6%
Zach Smith pass complete to Josh Johnson for 4 yds to the Tulsa 24Similar
Q4 5:51
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+5
87.8%
Zach Smith pass complete to JuanCarlos Santana for 5 yds to the Tulsa 29Similar
Q4 5:32
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+2
87.9%
Corey Taylor II run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+54
87.9%
Zach Smith pass complete to Sam Crawford Jr. for 54 yds to the Cincy 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:08
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+2
83.5%
Corey Taylor II run for 2 yds to the Cincy 13Similar
Q4 3:48
2ND & 8
OPP 13
0
84.4%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Josh JohnsonSimilar
Q4 3:41
3RD & 8
OPP 13
+13
48.2%
Zach Smith pass complete to JuanCarlos Santana for 13 yds for a TD (Zack Long KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 25END OF 4TH QUARTER
18 plays · 51 yds · 3:2663% → 94%
Q4 3:26
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+6
62.6%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Jayshon Jackson for 6 yds to the Cincy 38Similar
Q4 3:01
2ND & 4
OWN 38
-5
65.9%
CINCINNATI Penalty, False Start (James Hudson) to the Cincy 33Similar
Q4 2:39
2ND & 9
OWN 33
0
62.2%
Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Jayshon JacksonSimilar
Q4 2:33
3RD & 9
OWN 33
+20
59.1%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Alec Pierce for 20 yds to the Tulsa 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:55
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+8
65.6%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Jerome Ford for 8 yds to the Tulsa 39Similar
Q4 1:47
2ND & 2
OPP 39
+7
66.0%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Tyler Scott for 7 yds to the Tulsa 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:21
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+4
68.7%
Desmond Ridder run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 28Similar
Q4 1:16
2ND & 6
OPP 28
0
68.6%
Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Alec PierceSimilar
Q4 1:09
3RD & 6
OPP 28
+4
65.4%
Desmond Ridder run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 24Similar
Q4 0:58
4TH & 2
OPP 24
+5
62.7%
TULSA Penalty, Defensive Offside (Jaxon Player) to the Tulsa 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:55
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+3
68.5%
Jerome Ford run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 16 Jerome Ford fumbled, forced by Tyon Davis, recovered by CincySimilar
Q4 0:21
2ND & 7
OPP 16
+2
68.4%
Jerome Ford run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 14Similar
Q4 0:04
3RD & 5
OPP 14
-3
63.4%
Jerome Ford run for a loss of 3 yards to the Tulsa 17Similar
Q4 0:00
4TH & 8
OPP 17
+34
93.9%
Cole Smith 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 3:41
Zach Smith pass complete to JuanCarlos Santana for 13 yds for a TD (Zack Long KICK)
-39.5
FG · Q4 0:00
Cole Smith 34 yd FG GOOD
+34.7
TD · Q3 10:05
Deneric Prince run for 8 yds for a TD (Zack Long KICK)
-13.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com