Try the model
HOU

Houston 27 at Memphis 30

MEM
2020 · Week 15 · Dec 12, 2020 · Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · MEM
modelMEM aheadHOU aheadconfidence bandkey playMEM scoreHOU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGFGTDFUMBLETDFGTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 11:58 · Laine Wilkins punt for 45 yds , Calvin Austin III returns for no gain to the Memph 25
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+29.0+14.50−14.5−29.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 146Home team on offense+18.9Pregame prior−3.2Score differential+6.4Garbage-time factor+5.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+4.6Time remaining+1.7
This game in five plays
  1. FUMBLE · Q2 0:31: Clayton Tune run for a loss of 4 yards Clayton Tune fumbled, recovered by Memph Jaylon Allen , return for 85 yds (Riley Patterson KICK) — MEM win probability +14.4 pts (now 63%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 11:46: Brady White pass complete to Calvin Austin III for 15 yds for a TD (Riley Patterson KICK) — MEM win probability +17.9 pts (now 86%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 8:07: Clayton Tune run for 19 yds for a TD (Dalton Witherspoon KICK) — HOU win probability +19.2 pts (now 27%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 0:28: Clayton Tune pass complete to Bryson Smith for 18 yds for a TD Timeout HOUSTON, clock 00:28 (Dalton Witherspoon KICK) — HOU win probability +40.4 pts (now 54%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 0:00: Riley Patterson 47 yd FG GOOD — MEM win probability +30.1 pts (now 95%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MEM made the numbers' call on 6 of 8HOU made the numbers' call on 10 of 11
  1. Q1 10:35HOU 4th & 3 at MEM 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 63.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    63.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    63.7%−0.1
    68% to make
    Punt
    63.2%−0.6
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:57HOU 4th & 11 at MEM 11, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 62.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.5%−0.2
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    62.7%
    87% to make
    Punt
    61.6%−1.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:57MEM 4th & 17 at MEM 18, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.0%−0.4
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.4%
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:29HOU 4th & 15 at HOU 40, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.0%−0.4
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.4%
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:22MEM 4th & 4 at HOU 16, down 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 39.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.9%
    46% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    38.8%−0.1
    81% to make
    Punt
    36.1%−2.8
    average punt
  6. Q2 15:00HOU 4th & 9 at HOU 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.1%−0.5
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.5%
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:14HOU 4th & 4 at MEM 12, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 60.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.8%
    45% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    59.5%−0.3
    86% to make
    Punt
    54.7%−5.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 4:59MEM 4th & 7 at MEM 39, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.3%−0.4
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.6%
    average punt
  9. Q3 11:40HOU 4th & 11 at midfield, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.9%−1.3
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.2%
    average punt
  10. Q3 8:45MEM 4th & 3 at HOU 40, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 87.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    88.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    86.1%−2.2
    34% to make
    Punt
    86.5%−1.8
    average punt
  11. Q3 2:15MEM 4th & 6 at HOU 31, up 18
    Close callKicked a field goal · 92.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.0%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    91.8%−0.1
    54% to make
    Punt
    91.0%−1.0
    average punt
  12. Q4 15:00HOU 4th & 2 at MEM 20, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    2.6%−0.5
    75% to make
    Punt
    -1.0%−4.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 12:55MEM 4th & 10 at MEM 8, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.0%−1.7
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.8%
    average punt
  14. Q4 11:58HOU 4th & 9 at HOU 30, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.7%−0.4
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.1%
    average punt
  15. Q4 10:24MEM 4th & 8 at MEM 27, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.0%−1.0
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.0%
    average punt
  16. Q4 8:51HOU 4th & 5 at MEM 35, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 9.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.7%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    8.4%−0.4
    45% to make
    Punt
    7.3%−1.5
    average punt
  17. Q4 8:07MEM 4th & 12 at MEM 36, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.6%−3.3
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.0%
    average punt
  18. Q4 1:30HOU 4th & 2 at MEM 29, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 15.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    13.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    7.6%−6.2
    58% to make
    Punt
    4.8%−9.1
    average punt
  19. Q4 0:28HOU 4th & 8 at MEM 18, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 13.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    11.0%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    9.6%−1.4
    79% to make
    Punt
    6.1%−5.0
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MEM made the numbers' call on 2 of 2HOU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q2 5:21MEM Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 11:46MEM Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 13:01HOU Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    8.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    8.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 8:07HOU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    14.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    14.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 0:28HOU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.0%−2.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
HOUDrive 1FG
17 plays · 64 yds · 7:0366% → 63%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
34.2%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 13 yds to the Houst 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+7
34.2%
Kyle Porter run for 7 yds to the Houst 45Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 45
+6
34.2%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Christian Trahan for 6 yds to the Memph 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+8
34.2%
Kyle Porter run for 8 yds to the Memph 41Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 41
+10
34.2%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Christian Trahan for 10 yds to the Memph 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+1
34.2%
Kyle Porter run for 1 yd to the Memph 30Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 30
+7
34.2%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Kyle Porter for 7 yds to the Memph 23Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 23
-1
34.2%
Mulbah Car run for a loss of 1 yard to the Memph 24Similar
Q1 10:35
4TH & 3
OPP 24
+5
35.9%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Marquez Stevenson for 5 yds to the Memph 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:35
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+9
35.5%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 9 yds to the Memph 10Similar
Q1 10:35
2ND & 1
OPP 10
+2
35.5%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Bryson Smith for 2 yds to the Memph 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-3
35.5%
Kyle Porter run for a loss of 3 yards to the Memph 11Similar
Q1 10:35
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
0
35.5%
Clayton Tune run for no gain to the Memph 11 HOUSTON Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q1 10:35
3RD & GOAL
OPP 11
0
35.7%
Clayton Tune pass incomplete to Christian TrahanSimilar
Q1 7:57
4TH & GOAL
OPP 11
+28
36.6%
Dalton Witherspoon 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · -7 yds · 0:0037% → 36%
Q1 7:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
36.5%
Asa Martin run for no gain to the Memph 25Similar
Q1 7:57
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-2
36.5%
Tahj Washington run for a loss of 2 yards to the Memph 23Similar
Q1 7:57
3RD & 12
OWN 23
-5
36.2%
Brady White sacked by Payton Turner for a loss of 5 yards to the Memph 18Similar
Q1 7:57
4TH & 17
OWN 18
0
36.1%
Adam Williams punt for 37 yds, downed at the Houst 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 0:0064% → 63%
Q1 6:29
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-10
36.5%
CAR, Mulbah rush for 3 yards to the HOU48 (RUSSELL, JJ), PENALTY HOU holding (UNIJE, Reuben) 10 yards to the HOU35, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 6:29
1ST & 20
OWN 35
+5
37.1%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Jeremy Singleton for 5 yds to the Houst 40Similar
Q1 6:29
2ND & 15
OWN 40
0
36.8%
Clayton Tune pass incomplete to Bryson Smith, broken up by JJ RussellSimilar
Q1 6:29
3RD & 15
OWN 40
0
37.0%
Clayton Tune pass incomplete to Mulbah CarSimilar
Q1 6:29
4TH & 15
OWN 40
0
37.4%
Laine Wilkins punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Calvin Austin III at the Memph 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 4FG
14 plays · 56 yds · 4:5937% → 42%
Q1 5:21
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+8
37.2%
Brady White pass complete to Sean Dykes for 8 yds to the Memph 36Similar
Q1 5:21
2ND & 2
OWN 36
-3
37.8%
Rodrigues Clark run for a loss of 3 yards to the Memph 33Similar
Q1 5:21
3RD & 5
OWN 33
+5
36.9%
Brady White pass complete to Rodrigues Clark for 5 yds to the Memph 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:21
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
37.5%
Rodrigues Clark run for 2 yds to the Memph 40Similar
Q1 5:21
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+7
37.8%
Kylan Watkins run for 7 yds to the Memph 47Similar
Q1 5:21
3RD & 1
OWN 47
+5
37.8%
Asa Martin run for 5 yds to the Houst 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:21
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
38.2%
Brady White pass incomplete to Calvin Austin III, broken up by Marcus JonesSimilar
Q1 5:21
2ND & 10
OPP 48
0
38.1%
Brady White pass incomplete to Tahj Washington, broken up by Damarion WilliamsSimilar
Q1 5:21
3RD & 10
OPP 48
+15
37.4%
Brady White pass incomplete to Asa Martin for a 1ST down HOUSTON Penalty, personal foul (Grant Stuard) to the Houst 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:21
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+11
38.6%
Brady White pass complete to Javon Ivory for 11 yds to the Houst 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:21
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
38.6%
Kylan Watkins run for no gain to the Houst 22Similar
Q1 5:21
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+7
38.6%
Brady White pass complete to Sean Dykes for 7 yds to the Houst 15Similar
Q1 5:21
3RD & 3
OPP 15
-1
38.1%
Brady White pass complete to Sean Dykes for a loss of 1 yard to the Houst 16Similar
Q1 0:22
4TH & 4
OPP 16
+34
41.7%
Riley Patterson 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 1 yds · 0:1560% → 59%
Q1 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-10
39.6%
PORTER, Kyle rush for loss of 1 yard to the HOU27 (OWENS, Rodney), PENALTY HOU holding (BANES, Max) 10 yards to the HOU18, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 20
OWN 18
+2
40.0%
Clayton Tune run for 2 yds to the Houst 20Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 18
OWN 20
+9
40.0%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Jeremy Singleton for 9 yds to the Houst 29Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 29
0
40.2%
Clayton Tune pass incomplete to Jeremy SingletonSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 9
OWN 29
0
40.7%
Laine Wilkins punt for 46 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Memph 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 6INT
3 plays · 39 yds · 0:0042% → 43%
Q2 13:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+40
41.6%
Brady White pass complete to Sean Dykes for 40 yds to the Houst 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:53
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-1
43.9%
Rodrigues Clark run for a loss of 1 yard to the Houst 36Similar
Q2 13:53
2ND & 11
OPP 36
-22
43.3%
Brady White pass intercepted Marcus Jones return for 22 yds to the Houst 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 7FG
10 plays · 60 yds · 4:3260% → 62%
Q2 12:46
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+13
40.5%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Christian Trahan for 13 yds to the Houst 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:46
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
39.4%
Chandler Smith run for 4 yds to the Houst 45Similar
Q2 12:46
2ND & 6
OWN 45
+5
39.1%
Chandler Smith run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 12:46
3RD & 1
50
+1
39.0%
Clayton Tune run for 1 yd to the Memph 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:46
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+14
38.8%
Marquez Stevenson run for 14 yds to the Memph 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:46
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+17
38.3%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 17 yds to the Memph 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:46
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+8
38.3%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 8 yds to the Memph 10Similar
Q2 12:46
2ND & 2
OPP 10
-2
38.3%
Chandler Smith run for a loss of 2 yards to the Memph 12Similar
Q2 12:46
3RD & 4
OPP 12
0
38.9%
Clayton Tune pass incomplete to Marquez Stevenson, broken up by Quindell JohnsonSimilar
Q2 8:14
4TH & 4
OPP 12
+29
38.2%
Dalton Witherspoon 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 8TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 2:5339% → 52%
Q2 8:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
39.4%
Brady White pass complete to Asa Martin for 5 yds to the Memph 30Similar
Q2 8:14
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+2
39.9%
Asa Martin run for 2 yds to the Memph 32Similar
Q2 8:14
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+16
39.2%
Brady White pass complete to Caden Prieskorn for 16 yds to the Memph 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:14
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+10
41.5%
Asa Martin run for 10 yds to the Houst 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:45
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+36
42.9%
Brady White pass complete to Tahj Washington for 36 yds to the Houst 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-1
44.2%
Asa Martin run for a loss of 1 yard to the Houst 7Similar
Q2 6:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
44.2%
Asa Martin run for 3 yds to the Houst 4Similar
Q2 5:21
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
52.3%
Brady White pass complete to Tahj Washington for 4 yds for a TD (Riley Patterson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 9INT
3 plays · 0 yds · 0:0048% → 48%
Q2 5:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
52.3%
Clayton Tune pass incomplete to Christian TrahanSimilar
Q2 5:13
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
52.4%
Clayton Tune pass intercepted Quindell Johnson return for no gain to the Memph 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0051% → 49%
Q2 4:59
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
51.1%
Kylan Watkins run for 4 yds to the Memph 40Similar
Q2 4:59
2ND & 6
OWN 40
0
51.9%
Brady White pass incomplete to Calvin Austin IIISimilar
Q2 4:59
3RD & 6
OWN 40
-1
50.4%
Brady White pass complete to Calvin Austin III for a loss of 1 yard to the Memph 39Similar
Q2 4:59
4TH & 7
OWN 39
+14
49.4%
Adam Williams punt for 35 yds , Marcus Jones returns for 14 yds to the Houst 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 11FUMBLE TD
8 plays · 45 yds · 3:1649% → 37%
Q2 3:47
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+10
51.5%
Kyle Porter run for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:47
1ST & 10
50
+12
50.2%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Tre'von Bradley for 12 yds to the Memph 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:47
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+13
50.3%
Kyle Porter run for 13 yds to the Memph 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:47
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+4
48.9%
Kyle Porter run for 4 yds to the Memph 21Similar
Q2 3:47
2ND & 6
OPP 21
+5
48.9%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Bryson Smith for 5 yds to the Memph 16Similar
Q2 3:47
3RD & 1
OPP 16
+3
50.4%
Mulbah Car run for 3 yds to the Memph 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:47
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
48.9%
Mulbah Car run for no gain to the Memph 13Similar
Q2 0:31
2ND & 10
OPP 13
+85
63.3%
Clayton Tune run for a loss of 4 yards Clayton Tune fumbled, recovered by Memph Jaylon Allen , return for 85 yds (Riley Patterson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 12END OF HALF
4 plays · -6 yds · 0:0032% → 32%
Q2 0:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
68.1%
Kyle Porter run for 1 yd to the Houst 26Similar
Q2 0:31
2ND & 9
OWN 26
-7
68.2%
Clayton Tune sacked by Morris Joseph for a loss of 7 yards to the Houst 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 13TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:1466% → 86%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+25
66.1%
Brady White pass complete to Calvin Austin III for 25 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
50
0
67.6%
Brady White run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
50
+6
67.4%
Brady White pass complete to Tahj Washington for 6 yds to the Houst 44Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 44
+13
66.7%
Brady White pass complete to Asa Martin for 13 yds to the Houst 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
67.7%
Brady White pass incomplete to Javon IvorySimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 31
0
67.7%
Brady White pass incomplete to Javon IvorySimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 31
+14
66.7%
Rodrigues Clark run for 14 yds to the Houst 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+2
67.7%
Rodrigues Clark run for 2 yds to the Houst 15Similar
Q3 11:46
2ND & 8
OPP 15
+15
85.7%
Brady White pass complete to Calvin Austin III for 15 yds for a TD (Riley Patterson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 14PUNT
11 plays · 34 yds · 0:0020% → 20%
Q3 11:40
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
80.2%
Clayton Tune pass incomplete to Jeremy SingletonSimilar
Q3 11:40
2ND & 10
OWN 16
+4
80.7%
Kyle Porter run for 4 yds to the Houst 20Similar
Q3 11:40
3RD & 6
OWN 20
+10
80.7%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 10 yds to the Houst 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:40
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
79.4%
Kyle Porter run for 5 yds to the Houst 35Similar
Q3 11:40
2ND & 5
OWN 35
-5
79.1%
HOUSTON Penalty, false start (Keenan Murphy) to the Houst 30Similar
Q3 11:40
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+21
80.4%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Christian Trahan for 21 yds to the Memph 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:40
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
78.1%
Clayton Tune pass incomplete to Bryson SmithSimilar
Q3 11:40
2ND & 10
OPP 49
-1
78.9%
Kyle Porter run for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 11:40
3RD & 11
50
0
79.5%
Clayton Tune pass incomplete to Jeremy SingletonSimilar
Q3 11:40
4TH & 11
50
0
80.5%
Laine Wilkins punt for 36 yds, downed at the Memph 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 15FG
14 plays · 55 yds · 6:3088% → 97%
Q3 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+5
87.9%
Brady White pass complete to Caden Prieskorn for 5 yds to the Memph 19Similar
Q3 8:45
2ND & 5
OWN 19
+2
88.0%
Asa Martin run for 2 yds to the Memph 21Similar
Q3 8:45
3RD & 3
OWN 21
+5
87.7%
Brady White pass complete to Calvin Austin III for 5 yds to the Memph 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+15
88.2%
WHITE, Brady rush for loss of 4 yards to the MEM22, fumble by WHITE, Brady recovered by MEM WHITE, Brady at MEM17, PENALTY HOU face mask (ANENIH, David) 15 yards to the MEM41, 1ST DOWN MEM, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+12
88.6%
Brady White run for 12 yds to the Houst 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:45
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
88.7%
Rodrigues Clark run for no gain to the Houst 47Similar
Q3 8:45
2ND & 10
OPP 47
0
88.7%
Brady White pass incomplete to Calvin Austin IIISimilar
Q3 8:45
3RD & 10
OPP 47
+7
88.3%
Rodrigues Clark run for 7 yds to the Houst 40Similar
Q3 8:45
4TH & 3
OPP 40
+5
87.5%
Brady White pass complete to Kylan Watkins for 5 yds to the Houst 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:35
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-4
92.3%
Kylan Watkins run for a loss of 4 yards to the Houst 39Similar
Q3 3:35
2ND & 14
OPP 39
-2
92.2%
Brady White pass complete to Calvin Austin III for a loss of 2 yards to the Houst 41Similar
Q3 3:35
3RD & 16
OPP 41
+10
91.8%
Brady White pass complete to Calvin Austin III for 10 yds to the Houst 31Similar
Q3 2:15
4TH & 6
OPP 31
+49
96.5%
Riley Patterson 49 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 16TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 4:095% → 16%
Q3 2:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
95.5%
Mulbah Car run for 5 yds to the Houst 30Similar
Q3 2:10
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+1
95.2%
Mulbah Car run for 1 yd to the Houst 31Similar
Q3 2:10
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+7
95.3%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 7 yds to the Houst 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:10
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
95.2%
Clayton Tune pass incomplete to Marquez StevensonSimilar
Q3 2:10
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+34
95.2%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Christian Trahan for 34 yds to the Memph 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:10
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
94.4%
Clayton Tune pass incomplete to Christian Trahan, broken up by Thomas PickensSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+1
96.5%
Clayton Tune run for 1 yd to the Memph 27Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 27
+7
96.8%
Clayton Tune run for 7 yds to the Memph 20Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 2
OPP 20
+5
96.6%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Keith Corbin for 5 yds to the Memph 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+2
96.2%
Kyle Porter run for 2 yds to the Memph 13Similar
Q4 13:01
2ND & 8
OPP 13
+13
83.6%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Marquez Stevenson for 13 yds for a TD (Dalton Witherspoon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0091% → 90%
Q4 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 8
0
90.9%
Brady White pass incomplete to Tahj WashingtonSimilar
Q4 12:55
2ND & 10
OWN 8
0
90.8%
Asa Martin run for no gain to the Memph 8Similar
Q4 12:55
3RD & 10
OWN 8
0
90.5%
Brady White pass incomplete to Caden PrieskornSimilar
Q4 12:55
4TH & 10
OWN 8
0
89.8%
Adam Williams punt for 63 yds, downed at the Houst 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:0012% → 11%
Q4 11:58
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+4
87.6%
Mulbah Car run for 4 yds to the Houst 33Similar
Q4 11:58
2ND & 6
OWN 33
+2
87.1%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Marquez Stevenson for 2 yds to the Houst 35Similar
Q4 11:58
3RD & 4
OWN 35
-5
87.3%
HOUSTON Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Houst 30Similar
Q4 11:58
3RD & 9
OWN 30
0
88.7%
Clayton Tune pass incomplete to Keith CorbinSimilar
Q4 11:58
4TH & 9
OWN 30
0
88.9%
Laine Wilkins punt for 45 yds , Calvin Austin III returns for no gain to the Memph 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0093% → 93%
Q4 10:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
93.2%
Rodrigues Clark run for 2 yds to the Memph 27Similar
Q4 10:24
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
93.3%
Brady White pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:24
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
93.1%
Brady White pass incomplete to Calvin Austin III, broken up by Marcus JonesSimilar
Q4 10:24
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
92.5%
Adam Williams punt for 13 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Memph 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 20TD
7 plays · 40 yds · 1:3311% → 27%
Q4 9:40
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
88.6%
Clayton Tune pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:40
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+5
88.5%
Clayton Tune run for 5 yds to the Memph 35Similar
Q4 9:40
3RD & 5
OPP 35
0
88.3%
Clayton Tune pass incomplete to Christian TrahanSimilar
Q4 8:51
4TH & 5
OPP 35
+8
93.5%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Keith Corbin for 8 yds to the Memph 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:51
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+8
92.1%
Kyle Porter run for 8 yds to the Memph 19Similar
Q4 8:07
2ND & 2
OPP 19
+19
73.0%
Clayton Tune run for 19 yds for a TD (Dalton Witherspoon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 21PUNT
7 plays · 11 yds · 0:0085% → 84%
Q4 8:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
84.9%
Asa Martin run for 2 yds to the Memph 27Similar
Q4 8:07
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+11
84.9%
Brady White run for 11 yds to the Memph 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:07
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
86.4%
Asa Martin run for 5 yds to the Memph 43Similar
Q4 8:07
2ND & 5
OWN 43
-1
86.8%
Asa Martin run for a loss of 1 yard to the Memph 42Similar
Q4 8:07
3RD & 6
OWN 42
-6
85.6%
Brady White sacked by Derek Parish for a loss of 6 yards to the Memph 36Similar
Q4 8:07
4TH & 12
OWN 36
0
83.9%
Adam Williams punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Damarion Williams at the Houst 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 22TD
16 plays · 70 yds · 4:4616% → 54%
Q4 5:14
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-6
84.4%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Kyle Porter for a loss of 6 yards to the Houst 24Similar
Q4 5:14
2ND & 16
OWN 24
+6
86.4%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Keith Corbin for 6 yds to the Houst 30Similar
Q4 5:14
3RD & 10
OWN 30
+10
86.9%
Clayton Tune run for 10 yds to the Houst 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:14
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+9
83.2%
Kyle Porter run for 9 yds to the Houst 49Similar
Q4 5:14
2ND & 1
OWN 49
+4
80.8%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Bryson Smith for 4 yds to the Memph 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:14
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
81.2%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Jeremy Singleton for 3 yds to the Memph 44Similar
Q4 5:14
2ND & 7
OPP 44
+7
81.5%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Jeremy Singleton for 7 yds to the Memph 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:14
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+8
81.2%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Bryson Smith for 8 yds to the Memph 29Similar
Q4 5:14
2ND & 2
OPP 29
0
78.7%
Clayton Tune pass incomplete to Bryson SmithSimilar
Q4 5:14
3RD & 2
OPP 29
0
80.7%
Clayton Tune pass incomplete to Nathaniel DellSimilar
Q4 1:30
4TH & 2
OPP 29
+9
87.5%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Marquez Stevenson for 9 yds to the Memph 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:30
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
83.1%
Clayton Tune pass incomplete to Tre'von BradleySimilar
Q4 1:30
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+2
83.9%
Kyle Porter run for 2 yds to the Memph 18Similar
Q4 1:30
3RD & 8
OPP 18
0
86.2%
Clayton Tune pass incomplete to Marquez StevensonSimilar
Q4 0:28
4TH & 8
OPP 18
+18
45.8%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Bryson Smith for 18 yds for a TD Timeout HOUSTON, clock 00:28 (Dalton Witherspoon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 23FG
9 plays · 46 yds · 0:2858% → 95%
Q4 0:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
58.1%
Brady White pass complete to Caden Prieskorn for 12 yds to the Memph 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:28
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+15
60.3%
WHITE, Brady pass incomplete to AUSTIN, Calvin, PENALTY HOU pass interference (MWANIKI, Thabo) 15 yards to the HOU48, 1ST DOWN MEM, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 0:28
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
64.7%
Brady White pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:28
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+22
64.2%
Brady White pass complete to Calvin Austin III for 22 yds to the Houst 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:07
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-3
68.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the Houst 29Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 13
OPP 29
+47
95.4%
Riley Patterson 47 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:28
Clayton Tune pass complete to Bryson Smith for 18 yds for a TD Timeout HOUSTON, clock 00:28 (Dalton Witherspoon KICK)
-40.4
FG · Q4 0:00
Riley Patterson 47 yd FG GOOD
+30.1
TD · Q4 8:07
Clayton Tune run for 19 yds for a TD (Dalton Witherspoon KICK)
-19.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com