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TLSA

Tulsa 19 at Navy 6

NAVY
2020 · Week 14 · Dec 5, 2020 · Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium
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Win probability · NAVY
modelNAVY aheadTLSA aheadconfidence bandkey playNAVY scoreTLSA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGFGFGTDFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 11:58 · Ben Fee punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Keylon Stokes at the Tulsa 30
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+45.5+22.80−22.8−45.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 60Pregame prior−25.4Home team on offense−1.0Score differential−0.4Garbage-time factor−0.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.2
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 0:00: Bijan Nichols 34 yd FG GOOD TULSA Penalty, illegal formation ( Yards) declined — NAVY win probability +4.8 pts (now 33%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
  2. FG · Q3 7:08: Bijan Nichols 32 yd FG GOOD — NAVY win probability +10.3 pts (now 43%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 1:33: Zach Smith pass complete to Josh Johnson for 66 yds for a TD (Zack Long KICK) — TLSA win probability +15.8 pts (now 77%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q3 1:33: Chance Warren run for a loss of 2 yards to the Navy 41 — NAVY win probability +5.2 pts (now 27%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 10:58: Zack Long 37 yd FG GOOD — TLSA win probability +4.1 pts (now 85%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NAVY made the numbers' call on 8 of 11TLSA made the numbers' call on 7 of 10
  1. Q1 15:00TLSA 4th & 1 at NAVY 38, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 77.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    77.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    77.0%−0.2
    38% to make
    Punt
    77.0%−0.2
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:33NAVY 4th & 7 at NAVY 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.9%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.0%
    average punt
  3. Q1 10:33TLSA 4th & 5 at TLSA 43, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.0%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.0%
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:24NAVY 4th & 15 at NAVY 3, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.0%−0.6
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.6%
    average punt
  5. Q1 4:54NAVY 4th & 27 at NAVY 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.7%−0.7
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.3%
    average punt
  6. Q1 2:18TLSA 4th & 10 at TLSA 26, tied
    Close callWent for it · 70.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    70.3%−0.5
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    70.8%
    average punt
  7. Q1 2:18TLSA 4th & 7 at NAVY 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.4%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.5%
    average punt
  8. Q2 15:00NAVY 4th & 1 at NAVY 20, tied
    Close callPunted · 29.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.4%−0.6
    average punt
  9. Q2 11:58TLSA 4th & 7 at NAVY 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 69.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.9%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    68.9%
    54% to make
    Punt
    68.4%−0.5
    average punt
  10. Q2 11:58NAVY 4th & 10 at NAVY 35, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.8%−0.7
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.5%
    average punt
  11. Q2 8:31TLSA 4th & 20 at TLSA 42, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.4%−2.3
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.7%
    average punt
  12. Q2 3:22TLSA 4th & 3 at NAVY 8, up 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 68.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.7%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    68.1%−0.7
    90% to make
    Punt
    63.0%−5.7
    average punt
  13. Q2 1:08NAVY 4th & 1 at TLSA 27, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 30.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    30.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    29.2%−1.2
    62% to make
    Punt
    24.7%−5.7
    average punt
  14. Q3 7:08NAVY 4th & 2 at TLSA 15, down 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsKicked a field goal · 37.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.5%
    56% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    36.1%−1.4
    83% to make
    Punt
    25.4%−12.2
    average punt
  15. Q3 7:08TLSA 4th & 3 at TLSA 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.5%−0.7
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.2%
    average punt
  16. Q3 5:10NAVY 4th & 12 at NAVY 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.6%−3.4
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.0%
    average punt
  17. Q3 1:33NAVY 4th & 18 at NAVY 35, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.6%−4.1
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.6%
    average punt
  18. Q4 10:58TLSA 4th & 3 at NAVY 20, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.0 ptsKicked a field goal · 80.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.2%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    79.2%−1.0
    75% to make
    Punt
    70.7%−9.6
    average punt
  19. Q4 10:58NAVY 4th & 16 at TLSA 45, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.3%−1.5
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    14.6%−1.2
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    15.8%
    average punt
  20. Q4 2:54TLSA 4th & 6 at NAVY 19, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 91.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.8%−0.2
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    91.0%
    77% to make
    Punt
    86.2%−4.7
    average punt
  21. Q4 2:54NAVY 4th & 18 at NAVY 30, down 13
    Close callWent for it · 5.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.7%−<0.1
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    3.8%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TLSA made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q3 1:33TLSA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TLSADrive 1DOWNS
7 plays · 25 yds · 0:0082% → 82%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
17.6%
Corey Taylor II run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 40Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+13
17.6%
Corey Taylor II run for 13 yds to the Navy 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+5
17.6%
Zach Smith pass complete to Josh Johnson for 5 yds to the Navy 42Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 42
+2
17.6%
Corey Taylor II run for 2 yds to the Navy 40Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 40
+2
17.6%
Corey Taylor II run for 2 yds to the Navy 38Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 38
0
17.6%
T.K. Wilkerson run for no gain to the Navy 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0019% → 19%
Q1 12:33
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
18.9%
Xavier Arline run for no gain to the Navy 38Similar
Q1 12:33
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+4
18.9%
Xavier Arline run for 4 yds to the Navy 42Similar
Q1 12:33
3RD & 6
OWN 42
-1
18.9%
Xavier Arline run for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 41Similar
Q1 12:33
4TH & 7
OWN 41
+7
18.8%
Ben Fee punt for 39 yds , Keylon Stokes returns for 7 yds to the Tulsa 48 TULSA Penalty, Offensive holding (10 Yards) to the Tulsa 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 3PUNT
9 plays · 26 yds · 0:0080% → 80%
Q1 10:33
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+4
19.8%
T.K. Wilkerson run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 21Similar
Q1 10:33
2ND & 6
OWN 21
+6
19.8%
T.K. Wilkerson run for 6 yds to the Tulsa 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:33
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+2
19.7%
T.K. Wilkerson run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 29Similar
Q1 10:33
2ND & 8
OWN 29
+4
19.7%
T.K. Wilkerson run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 33Similar
Q1 10:33
3RD & 4
OWN 33
+5
19.8%
Zach Smith pass complete to Josh Johnson for 5 yds to the Tulsa 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:33
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
19.6%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Josh JohnsonSimilar
Q1 10:33
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+8
19.6%
Zach Smith pass complete to JuanCarlos Santana for 8 yds to the Tulsa 46Similar
Q1 10:33
3RD & 2
OWN 46
-3
19.5%
T.K. Wilkerson run for a loss of 3 yards to the Tulsa 43Similar
Q1 10:33
4TH & 5
OWN 43
-3
19.8%
Lachlan Wilson punt for 39 yds , Mark Walker returns for a loss of 3 yards to the Navy 40 NAVY Penalty, illegal block (7 Yards) to the Navy 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 0:0022% → 21%
Q1 6:24
1ST & 10
OWN 8
0
21.8%
Xavier Arline pass incomplete to Mark WalkerSimilar
Q1 6:24
2ND & 10
OWN 8
+1
21.8%
Xavier Arline run for 1 yd to the Navy 9Similar
Q1 6:24
3RD & 9
OWN 9
-4
21.6%
NAVY Penalty, personal foul (Justin Self) to the Navy 5Similar
Q1 6:24
3RD & 13
OWN 5
-2
21.6%
Xavier Arline pass complete to Jamale Carothers for a loss of 2 yards to the Navy 3Similar
Q1 6:24
4TH & 15
OWN 3
0
21.4%
Ben Fee punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Navy 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 5FUMBLE
1 play · -12 yds · 0:0078% → 78%
Q1 5:03
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+2
21.7%
Corey Taylor II run for 2 yds to the Navy 47 Corey Taylor II fumbled, forced by Diego Fagot, recovered by Navy Diego FagotSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · -17 yds · 0:0024% → 22%
Q1 4:54
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
23.5%
Xavier Arline run for 5 yds to the Tulsa 48Similar
Q1 4:54
2ND & 5
OPP 48
-5
23.6%
NAVY Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Navy 47Similar
Q1 4:54
2ND & 10
OWN 47
0
23.3%
Nelson Smith run for no gain to the Navy 47Similar
Q1 4:54
3RD & 10
OWN 47
-17
22.9%
Xavier Arline sacked by Grant Sawyer for a loss of 17 yards to the Navy 30Similar
Q1 4:54
4TH & 27
OWN 30
0
22.2%
Ben Fee punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Keylon Stokes at the Tulsa 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 7PUNT
9 plays · 25 yds · 0:2276% → 76%
Q1 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
23.8%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to James PalmerSimilar
Q1 2:40
2ND & 10
OWN 26
0
23.8%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to JuanCarlos SantanaSimilar
Q1 2:40
3RD & 10
OWN 26
0
24.2%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Keylon StokesSimilar
Q1 2:18
4TH & 10
OWN 26
+22
24.7%
Lachlan Wilson run for 22 yds to the Tulsa 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:18
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
23.2%
Corey Taylor II run for 3 yds to the Navy 49Similar
Q1 2:18
2ND & 7
OPP 49
0
23.0%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Sam Crawford Jr., broken up by Michael McMorrisSimilar
Q1 2:18
3RD & 7
OPP 49
0
23.1%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Keylon StokesSimilar
Q1 2:18
4TH & 7
OPP 49
+1
24.0%
Lachlan Wilson punt for 39 yds , Chance Warren returns for 1 yd to the Navy 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:4826% → 26%
Q1 0:48
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+2
25.8%
Xavier Arline run for 2 yds to the Navy 13Similar
Q1 0:48
2ND & 8
OWN 13
+4
25.7%
Xavier Arline run for 4 yds to the Navy 17Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 17
+3
25.9%
Nelson Smith run for 3 yds to the Navy 20Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 20
0
25.5%
Ben Fee punt for 25 yds, downed at the Navy 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 9FG
8 plays · 14 yds · 2:0776% → 75%
Q2 14:05
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-10
24.5%
SMITH, Z. pass complete to CRAWFORD JR, S. for 45 yards to the NAVY0, clock 14:05, PENALTY TLS holding (COUCH, D.) 10 yards to the TLS45, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:05
1ST & 20
OWN 45
+4
25.3%
T.K. Wilkerson run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 49Similar
Q2 14:05
2ND & 16
OWN 49
0
25.3%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Keylon StokesSimilar
Q2 14:05
3RD & 16
OWN 49
+17
25.6%
Zach Smith pass complete to JuanCarlos Santana for 17 yds to the Navy 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:05
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
24.2%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Josh JohnsonSimilar
Q2 14:05
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+3
24.2%
Corey Taylor II run for 3 yds to the Navy 31Similar
Q2 14:05
3RD & 7
OPP 31
0
24.7%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Sam Crawford Jr.Similar
Q2 11:58
4TH & 7
OPP 31
+48
25.2%
Zack Long 48 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 10PUNT
8 plays · 10 yds · 0:0026% → 25%
Q2 11:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
26.0%
Nelson Smith run for 2 yds to the Navy 27Similar
Q2 11:58
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+2
26.2%
Chance Warren run for 2 yds to the Navy 29Similar
Q2 11:58
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+6
25.7%
Myles Fells run for 6 yds to the Navy 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:58
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-2
26.2%
Xavier Arline run for a loss of 2 yards to the Navy 33Similar
Q2 11:58
2ND & 12
OWN 33
+2
25.9%
Xavier Arline run for 2 yds to the Navy 35Similar
Q2 11:58
3RD & 10
OWN 35
0
25.4%
Xavier Arline pass incomplete to Devin MathewsSimilar
Q2 11:58
4TH & 10
OWN 35
0
25.3%
Ben Fee punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Keylon Stokes at the Tulsa 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 11PUNT
8 plays · 12 yds · 0:0073% → 72%
Q2 8:31
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
26.7%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Josh JohnsonSimilar
Q2 8:31
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+9
26.9%
Corey Taylor II run for 9 yds to the Tulsa 39Similar
Q2 8:31
3RD & 1
OWN 39
+2
25.8%
Corey Taylor II run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:31
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+11
25.7%
Zach Smith pass complete to Keylon Stokes for 11 yds to the Navy 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:31
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+6
25.4%
Corey Taylor II run for 6 yds to the Navy 42Similar
Q2 8:31
2ND & 4
OPP 42
0
25.3%
TEAM run for no gain to the Tulsa 42 TEAM fumbled, recovered by Tulsa Corey Taylor IISimilar
Q2 8:31
3RD & 20
OWN 42
0
26.9%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Josh JohnsonSimilar
Q2 8:31
4TH & 20
OWN 42
0
27.8%
Lachlan Wilson punt for 58 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 12FUMBLE
1 play · 5 yds · 0:0028% → 28%
Q2 5:35
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
28.1%
Myles Fells run for 5 yds to the Navy 25 Myles Fells fumbled, forced by Anthony Goodlow, recovered by Tulsa Zaven CollinsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 13FG
6 plays · 17 yds · 2:0575% → 77%
Q2 5:27
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+9
25.1%
Corey Taylor II run for 9 yds to the Navy 16Similar
Q2 5:27
2ND & 1
OPP 16
+1
25.1%
Corey Taylor II run for 1 yd to the Navy 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:27
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+4
25.1%
Corey Taylor II run for 4 yds to the Navy 11Similar
Q2 5:27
2ND & 6
OPP 11
+3
25.1%
Keylon Stokes run for 3 yds to the Navy 8Similar
Q2 5:27
3RD & 3
OPP 8
0
25.8%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Josh JohnsonSimilar
Q2 3:22
4TH & 3
OPP 8
+25
22.8%
Zack Long 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 14FG
16 plays · 57 yds · 3:2226% → 33%
Q2 3:22
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
25.9%
Jamale Carothers run for 3 yds to the Navy 29Similar
Q2 3:22
2ND & 7
OWN 29
+4
25.9%
Carlinos Acie run for 4 yds to the Navy 33Similar
Q2 3:22
3RD & 3
OWN 33
+6
25.4%
Nelson Smith run for 6 yds to the Navy 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:22
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+6
26.4%
Jamale Carothers run for 6 yds to the Navy 45Similar
Q2 3:22
2ND & 4
OWN 45
+19
27.4%
Xavier Arline run for 19 yds to the Tulsa 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:22
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+2
28.0%
Xavier Arline run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 34Similar
Q2 1:08
2ND & 8
OPP 34
+2
28.0%
Xavier Arline run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 32Similar
Q2 1:08
3RD & 6
OPP 32
+5
26.6%
Xavier Arline pass complete to Mark Walker for 5 yds to the Tulsa 27Similar
Q2 1:08
4TH & 1
OPP 27
+2
25.6%
Nelson Smith run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:08
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
28.0%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:08
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+14
28.0%
Xavier Arline pass complete to Mark Walker for 14 yds to the Tulsa 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:09
1ST & 10
OPP 11
-6
27.7%
Xavier Arline sacked by Justin Wright for a loss of 6 yards to the Tulsa 17Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 16
OPP 17
+34
32.5%
Bijan Nichols 34 yd FG GOOD TULSA Penalty, illegal formation ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 15FG
16 plays · 60 yds · 7:5230% → 43%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
29.8%
Xavier Arline run for 5 yds to the Navy 30Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+11
30.4%
Xavier Arline run for 11 yds to the Navy 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
32.1%
Chance Warren run for 3 yds to the Navy 44Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 44
+6
32.3%
Nelson Smith run for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 1
50
+3
32.3%
Nelson Smith run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+5
32.9%
WARREN, Chance rush for 5 yards to the TLS42 (WRIGHT, J.), PENALTY TLS offside (PLAYER, J.) 5 yards to the TLS42, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 5
OPP 42
+3
33.1%
Nelson Smith run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 39Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 39
+3
33.1%
Chance Warren run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+5
33.0%
Daniel Jones run for 5 yds to the Tulsa 31Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 31
+4
34.1%
Nelson Smith run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 27Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 27
+4
32.7%
Chance Warren run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+2
34.1%
Jamale Carothers run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 21Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 21
+5
34.1%
Xavier Arline run for 5 yds to the Tulsa 16Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 16
+1
32.7%
Nelson Smith run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 15Similar
Q3 7:08
4TH & 2
OPP 15
+32
42.9%
Bijan Nichols 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0062% → 61%
Q3 7:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
37.8%
Corey Taylor II run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 26Similar
Q3 7:08
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+5
37.8%
Zach Smith pass complete to Sam Crawford Jr. for 5 yds to the Tulsa 31Similar
Q3 7:08
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+1
37.8%
Zach Smith run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 32Similar
Q3 7:08
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
39.5%
Lachlan Wilson punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Mark Walker at the Navy 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 0:0044% → 40%
Q3 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
43.9%
Nelson Smith run for 3 yds to the Navy 40Similar
Q3 5:10
2ND & 7
OWN 40
-5
45.6%
Xavier Arline run for a loss of 5 yards to the Navy 35Similar
Q3 5:10
3RD & 12
OWN 35
0
40.8%
Xavier Arline run for no gain to the Navy 35Similar
Q3 5:10
4TH & 12
OWN 35
0
40.2%
Ben Fee punt for 28 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Tulsa 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 18TD
4 plays · 63 yds · 1:3661% → 77%
Q3 3:09
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-1
38.6%
Corey Taylor II run for a loss of 1 yard to the Tulsa 36Similar
Q3 3:09
2ND & 11
OWN 36
+3
39.5%
Zach Smith pass complete to Keylon Stokes for 3 yds to the Tulsa 39Similar
Q3 3:09
3RD & 8
OWN 39
-5
38.9%
TULSA Penalty, false start (Dante Bivens) to the Tulsa 34Similar
Q3 1:33
3RD & 13
OWN 34
+66
23.1%
Zach Smith pass complete to Josh Johnson for 66 yds for a TD (Zack Long KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 19PUNT
6 plays · -8 yds · 0:0027% → 23%
Q3 1:33
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-2
27.4%
Chance Warren run for a loss of 2 yards to the Navy 41Similar
Q3 1:33
2ND & 12
OWN 41
-5
26.0%
NAVY Penalty, false start (Billy Honaker) to the Navy 36Similar
Q3 1:33
2ND & 17
OWN 36
0
25.0%
Xavier Arline pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:33
3RD & 17
OWN 36
-1
23.6%
Xavier Arline sacked by Jaxon Player for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 35Similar
Q3 1:33
4TH & 18
OWN 35
0
22.8%
Ben Fee punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Keylon Stokes at the Tulsa 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 20FG
11 plays · 52 yds · 4:0279% → 85%
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+11
21.0%
Zach Smith pass complete to Keylon Stokes for 11 yds to the Tulsa 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
19.7%
Corey Taylor II run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 40Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 40
+12
19.9%
Corey Taylor II run for 12 yds to the Navy 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+7
18.9%
Corey Taylor II run for 7 yds to the Navy 41Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 41
+4
18.8%
Corey Taylor II run for 4 yds to the Navy 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
18.9%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Keylon StokesSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+10
19.0%
Christian Lovick run for 10 yds to the Navy 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+1
18.3%
Keylon Stokes run for 1 yd to the Navy 26Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 26
+6
18.4%
Christian Lovick run for 6 yds to the Navy 20Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 20
0
19.0%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Sam Crawford Jr., broken up by Terrell AdamsSimilar
Q4 10:58
4TH & 3
OPP 20
+37
14.9%
Zack Long 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 21PUNT
13 plays · 30 yds · 0:0015% → 14%
Q4 10:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
15.4%
Xavier Arline run for 15 yds to the Navy 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:58
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+7
16.7%
Xavier Arline run for 7 yds to the Navy 47Similar
Q4 10:58
2ND & 3
OWN 47
0
17.7%
Nelson Smith run for no gain to the Navy 47Similar
Q4 10:58
3RD & 3
OWN 47
+3
17.0%
Xavier Arline run for 3 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:58
1ST & 10
50
0
17.5%
Xavier Arline pass incomplete to Jamale CarothersSimilar
Q4 10:58
2ND & 10
50
+1
17.0%
Xavier Arline run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 49Similar
Q4 10:58
3RD & 9
OPP 49
+10
16.5%
Xavier Arline pass complete to Mark Walker for 10 yds to the Tulsa 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:58
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-4
18.3%
Xavier Arline run for a loss of 4 yards to the Tulsa 43Similar
Q4 10:58
2ND & 14
OPP 43
-10
17.0%
ARLINE, Xavier pass incomplete to WARREN, Chance, PENALTY NAVY holding (FRANKLAND, Kip) 10 yards to the NAVY47, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 10:58
2ND & 24
OWN 47
-1
15.8%
Xavier Arline run for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 46Similar
Q4 10:58
3RD & 25
OWN 46
+9
14.8%
Xavier Arline run for 9 yds to the Tulsa 45Similar
Q4 10:58
4TH & 16
OPP 45
0
14.3%
Ben Fee punt for 19 yds, downed at the Tulsa 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 22FG
13 plays · 55 yds · 2:4890% → 97%
Q4 5:42
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
10.3%
Christian Lovick run for 5 yds to the Tulsa 31Similar
Q4 5:42
2ND & 5
OWN 31
+4
9.9%
Christian Lovick run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 35Similar
Q4 5:42
3RD & 1
OWN 35
+3
10.6%
Christian Lovick run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:42
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
9.5%
Anthony Watkins run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 41Similar
Q4 3:54
2ND & 7
OWN 41
-1
8.2%
Anthony Watkins run for a loss of 1 yard to the Tulsa 40Similar
Q4 3:51
3RD & 8
OWN 40
+37
8.4%
Zach Smith pass complete to Keylon Stokes for 37 yds to the Navy 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:51
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
7.1%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Sam Crawford Jr.Similar
Q4 3:51
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+1
7.4%
Anthony Watkins run for 1 yd to the Navy 22Similar
Q4 3:05
3RD & 9
OPP 22
+3
6.2%
Christian Lovick run for 3 yds to the Navy 19 TULSA Penalty, illegal formation ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 2:54
4TH & 6
OPP 19
+36
3.1%
Zack Long 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 23DOWNS
6 plays · 7 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q4 2:54
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+15
2.1%
MORRIS, Dalen pass incomplete to HIGH, Devon (WILLIAMS, C.), PENALTY TLS pass interference (WILLIAMS, C.) 15 yards to the NAVY38, 1ST DOWN NAVY, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:54
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
2.2%
Dalen Morris pass incomplete to Chance WarrenSimilar
Q4 2:54
2ND & 10
OWN 38
-6
2.2%
Dalen Morris sacked by Treyvon Reeves for a loss of 6 yards to the Navy 32Similar
Q4 2:54
3RD & 16
OWN 32
-2
2.1%
Dalen Morris sacked by Jaxon Player for a loss of 2 yards to the Navy 30Similar
Q4 2:54
4TH & 18
OWN 30
0
2.1%
Dalen Morris pass incomplete to Mark Walker, broken up by Allie Green IVSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 24Uncategorized
3 plays · -3 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q4 1:24
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-1
2.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 31Similar
Q4 1:24
2ND & 11
OPP 31
-1
2.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 32Similar
Q4 1:24
3RD & 12
OPP 32
-1
2.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 1:33
Zach Smith pass complete to Josh Johnson for 66 yds for a TD (Zack Long KICK)
-15.8
FG · Q3 7:08
Bijan Nichols 32 yd FG GOOD
+10.3
KEY PLAY · Q3 1:33
Chance Warren run for a loss of 2 yards to the Navy 41
+5.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com