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Win probability · TULN
modelTULN aheadMEM aheadconfidence bandkey playTULN scoreMEM score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 7:20 · Cameron Carroll run for 3 yds to the Memph 42 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsPregame priorScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 11:09: Michael Pratt run for 3 yds for a TD (Merek Glover KICK) — TULN win probability +9.6 pts (now 71%) (top driver: TULN has the ball).
- TD · Q2 1:18: Tahj Washington run for 2 yds for a TD (Riley Patterson KICK) — MEM win probability +8.8 pts (now 40%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
- TD · Q3 8:59: Michael Pratt run for 10 yds for a TD (Merek Glover KICK) — TULN win probability +12.4 pts (now 85%) (top driver: TULN has the ball).
- TD · Q3 5:13: Brady White pass complete to Sean Dykes for 6 yds for a TD (Riley Patterson KICK) — MEM win probability +14.6 pts (now 35%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
- TD · Q4 11:34: Cameron Carroll run for 9 yds for a TD (Merek Glover KICK) — TULN win probability +9.6 pts (now 94%) (top driver: TULN has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
TULN made the numbers' call on 8 of 8MEM made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
- Q1 10:05TULN 4th & 9 at TULN 2, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 59.2% before the snapGo for it59.0%−0.327% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call59.2%average punt
- Q1 7:20MEM 4th & 9 at TULN 35, tiedClose callKicked a field goal · 40.7% before the snapGo for it40.8%32% to convertField goalTheir call40.8%−<0.145% to makePunt40.6%−0.2average punt
- Q1 7:20TULN 4th & 1 at MEM 45, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 59.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call59.8%70% to convertField goal59.2%−0.625% to makePunt59.4%−0.4average punt
- Q1 3:56MEM 4th & 7 at MEM 26, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.8% before the snapGo for it35.9%−0.236% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call36.1%average punt
- Q1 2:32TULN 4th & 10 at TULN 40, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.2% before the snapGo for it63.0%−0.529% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call63.4%average punt
- Q1 2:12MEM 4th & 15 at MEM 26, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.4% before the snapGo for it34.8%−1.016% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call35.9%average punt
- Q2 15:00TULN 4th & 1 at MEM 18, up 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 65.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call65.1%71% to convertField goal64.2%−0.979% to makePunt61.3%−3.8average punt
- Q2 10:57MEM 4th & 11 at MEM 35, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.5% before the snapGo for it26.9%−1.326% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call28.2%average punt
- Q2 9:59TULN 4th & 22 at TULN 19, up 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.3% before the snapGo for it70.5%−2.97% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call73.4%average punt
- Q2 0:51TULN 4th & 17 at TULN 43, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.5% before the snapGo for it66.6%−1.714% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call68.4%average punt
- Q3 14:56MEM 4th & 1 at TULN 38, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 31.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call31.0%70% to convertField goal27.3%−3.738% to makePunt27.6%−3.5average punt
- Q3 2:55MEM 4th & 16 at TULN 46, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.5% before the snapGo for it23.7%−2.616% to convertField goal24.0%−2.323% to makePuntTheir call26.3%average punt
- Q4 11:28MEM 4th & 10 at TULN 12, down 14Numbers favored field goal by 1.6 ptsWent for it · 9.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call7.8%−1.625% to convertField goal9.4%86% to makePunt3.2%−6.2average punt
- Q4 4:55TULN 4th & 13 at TULN 28, up 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.2% before the snapGo for it95.3%−1.019% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call96.3%average punt
- Q4 1:44TULN 4th & 1 at MEM 31, up 14Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 97.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call98.1%71% to convertField goal97.6%−0.554% to makePunt97.2%−0.9average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TULN made the numbers' call on 4 of 5MEM made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
- Q1 10:58TULN Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call60.7%97% to makeGo for two60.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 10:05MEM Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call40.5%97% to makeGo for two40.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 4:00TULN Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call62.9%97% to makeGo for two62.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 11:09TULN Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call72.8%97% to makeGo for two72.7%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 1:18MEM Touchdown, down 8 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call28.8%97% to makeGo for two28.7%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 8:59TULN Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call84.9%97% to makeGo for two84.8%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 5:13MEM Touchdown, down 8 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call21.5%97% to makeGo for two21.4%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 11:34TULN Touchdown, up 13 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call91.9%−0.197% to makeGo for two92.0%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartTULNDrive 1TD11 plays · 75 yds · 4:0253% → 56%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
53.2%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Tyrick James for 11 yds to the Tulan 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
53.2%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Duece Watts for 7 yds to the Tulan 43Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 29
+6
53.2%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Duece Watts for 6 yds to the Memph 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+8
53.2%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Jha'Quan Jackson for 8 yds to the Memph 15Similar
Q1 10:58
2ND & 2
OPP 15
+15
55.7%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Duece Watts for 15 yds for a TD (Merek Glover KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 2TD5 plays · 75 yds · 0:5345% → 47%
Q1 10:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
55.1%
Brady White pass complete to Tahj Washington for 2 yds to the Memph 27Similar
Q1 10:58
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+14
55.2%
Brady White pass complete to Calvin Austin III for 14 yds to the Memph 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:05
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+59
53.3%
Brady White pass complete to Calvin Austin III for 59 yds for a TD (Riley Patterson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 3PUNT5 plays · 1 yds · 0:0054% → 53%
Q1 10:05
4TH & 9
OWN 2
+18
53.4%
Ryan Wright punt for 52 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Tulan 36 , Calvin Austin III returns for 18 yds to the Tulan 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 4MISSED FG4 plays · 1 yds · 1:1747% → 46%
TULNDrive 5TD7 plays · 65 yds · 3:2054% → 60%
MEMDrive 6PUNT6 plays · 3 yds · 0:0042% → 41%
TULNDrive 7PUNT4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0060% → 58%
Q1 2:32
4TH & 10
OWN 40
0
58.3%
Ryan Wright punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Calvin Austin III at the Memph 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 8PUNT6 plays · 6 yds · 0:0041% → 40%
Q1 2:12
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+11
58.8%
Brady White pass complete to Calvin Austin III for 11 yds to the Memph 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:12
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-10
58.6%
[Shotgun], WHITE, Brady slant pass complete to AUSTIN, Calvin for 10 yards to the MEM41, out-of-bounds (Monroe,J.), PENALTY MEM holding (DALE, Matt) 10 yards to the MEM21, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 2:12
1ST & 20
OWN 21
+10
58.9%
Brady White pass complete to Tahj Washington for 10 yds to the Memph 31Similar
Q1 2:12
4TH & 15
OWN 26
+8
59.8%
Adam Williams punt for 44 yds , Jha'Quan Jackson returns for 8 yds to the Tulan 34 TULANE Penalty, illegal block (Macon Clark) to the Tulan 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 9TD9 plays · 83 yds · 3:5560% → 71%
Q1 0:04
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+38
60.2%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Phat Watts for 38 yds to the Memph 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
61.6%
Michael Pratt pass incomplete to Stephon Huderson, broken up by Tyrez LindseySimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+18
61.5%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Jaetavian Toles for 18 yds to the Memph 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+3
61.7%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Tyrick James for 3 yds to the Memph 24Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 18
+13
60.5%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Cameron Carroll for 13 yds to the Memph 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 10PUNT5 plays · -1 yds · 0:0032% → 31%
Q2 10:57
3RD & 11
OWN 35
0
68.5%
Brady White pass incomplete to Calvin Austin III Brady White fumbled,Similar
Q2 10:57
4TH & 11
OWN 35
+56
68.7%
Adam Williams punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Jha'Quan Jackson at the TULANE 18 TULANE Penalty, Offensive holding (Macon Clark) to the Tulan 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 11PUNT9 plays · 10 yds · 0:0071% → 70%
Q2 9:59
2ND & 6
OWN 13
+8
70.8%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Mykel Jones for 8 yds to the Tulan 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:59
2ND & 3
OWN 28
+3
71.1%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Phat Watts for 3 yds Phat Watts fumbled, forced by Quindell Johnson, recovered by Tulan Phat Watts for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:59
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-10
70.9%
[Shotgun], Pratt,M. rush up middle for 8 yards to the TULANE39, PENALTY TULANE holding (Tuggle,T.) 10 yards to the TULANE21, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:59
1ST & 20
OWN 21
+5
70.7%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Amare Jones for 5 yds to the Tulan 26Similar
Q2 9:59
2ND & 15
OWN 26
+4
70.7%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Amare Jones for 4 yds to the Tulan 30Similar
Q2 9:59
3RD & 11
OWN 30
-11
70.2%
Michael Pratt sacked by Thomas Pickens for a loss of 11 yards to the Tulan 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 12TD18 plays · 67 yds · 4:3828% → 40%
Q2 5:56
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
71.6%
Brady White pass incomplete to Calvin Austin III, broken up by Jaylon MonroeSimilar
Q2 5:56
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+15
71.7%
Brady White pass complete to Calvin Austin III for 15 yds to the Tulan 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:56
4TH & 1
OPP 8
+4
71.1%
WHITE, Brady slant pass complete to AUSTIN, Calvin for no gain to the TULANE8 (Kuerschen,C.), PENALTY TULANE offside defense (Johnson,Pa.) 4 yards to the TULANE4, 1ST DOWN MEM, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:56
1ST & 4
OPP 0
+1
69.7%
Asa Martin run for 1 yd to the Tulan 3 TULANE Penalty, personal foul off-setting ( Yards) to the Tulan 3Similar
Q2 1:47
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
-6
70.5%
Brady White sacked by Adonis Friloux for a loss of 6 yards to the Tulan 9Similar
Q2 1:42
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
+7
71.8%
[Shotgun], WHITE, Brady pass incomplete to AUSTIN, Calvin, PENALTY TULANE pass interference (Monroe,J.) 7 yards to the TULANE2, 1ST DOWN MEM, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 13PUNT7 plays · -7 yds · 0:1771% → 68%
Q2 1:08
1ST & 10
50
0
70.5%
Michael Pratt pass incomplete to Duece Watts, broken up by T.J. CarterSimilar
Q2 1:08
2ND & 10
50
0
70.0%
Michael Pratt pass incomplete to Jha'Quan Jackson, broken up by Jacobi FrancisSimilar
Q2 0:56
3RD & 10
50
-7
69.3%
Michael Pratt sacked by Xavier Cullens for a loss of 7 yards to the Tulan 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 14INT5 plays · 10 yds · 0:2232% → 30%
Q2 0:45
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+15
68.8%
Brady White pass complete to Kylan Watkins for 15 yds to the Memph 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-5
66.8%
MEMPHIS Penalty, illegal procedure (Manuel Orona-Lopez) to the Memph 40Similar
Q2 0:23
1ST & 15
OWN 40
-3
69.7%
Brady White pass intercepted Cornelius Dyson return for 3 yds to the Memph 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 15END OF HALF1 play · -8 yds · 0:0072% → 72%
Q2 0:16
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-8
72.0%
Michael Pratt sacked by Morris Joseph for a loss of 8 yards to the Tulan 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 16DOWNS7 plays · 30 yds · 0:0033% → 34%
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+11
66.7%
Brady White pass complete to Calvin Austin III for 11 yds to the Memph 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+15
65.8%
Brady White pass complete to Javon Ivory for 15 yds to the Tulan 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:56
2ND & 6
OPP 43
+4
64.1%
Brady White pass complete to Tahj Washington for 4 yds to the Tulan 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 17TD7 plays · 57 yds · 3:0971% → 85%
Q3 12:08
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+14
72.3%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Phat Watts for 14 yds to the Memph 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 18TD11 plays · 70 yds · 3:3819% → 35%
Q3 8:51
2ND & 7
OWN 33
+7
81.3%
[Shotgun], WHITE, Brady sideline pass incomplete to AUSTIN, Calvin (Monroe,J.), PENALTY TULANE pass interference (Monroe,J.) 7 yards to the MEM40, 1ST DOWN MEM, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:51
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+1
81.3%
Brady White pass complete to Kylan Watkins for 1 yd to the Memph 41Similar
Q3 8:51
3RD & 9
OWN 41
+11
81.5%
Brady White pass complete to Tahj Washington for 11 yds to the Tulan 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:51
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+21
80.0%
Brady White pass complete to Tahj Washington for 21 yds to the Tulan 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:51
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+7
78.6%
Calvin Austin III pass complete to Brady White for 7 yds to the Tulan 20Similar
Q3 5:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
65.0%
Brady White pass complete to Sean Dykes for 6 yds for a TD (Riley Patterson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 19INT6 plays · 26 yds · 0:0075% → 77%
Q3 5:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
75.4%
Michael Pratt pass incomplete to Jha'Quan Jackson, broken up by Sylvonta OliverSimilar
Q3 5:13
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+18
75.1%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Duece Watts for 18 yds to the Tulan 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:13
2ND & 12
OPP 49
-31
76.8%
Amare Jones pass intercepted Quindell Johnson return for 31 yds to the Memph 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 20PUNT5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0031% → 26%
TULNDrive 21TD11 plays · 80 yds · 4:1380% → 94%
Q3 0:47
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
80.3%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Stephon Huderson for 5 yds to the Tulan 25Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
82.1%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Jha'Quan Jackson for 7 yds to the Tulan 42Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 48
+16
83.7%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Tyrick James for 16 yds to the Memph 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+8
84.0%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Sorrell Brown for 8 yds to the Memph 28Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+17
84.3%
Michael Pratt run for 8 yds to the Memph 18 for a 1ST down MEMPHIS Penalty, personal foul (Cole Mashburn) to the Memph 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 22DOWNS15 plays · 59 yds · 0:009% → 10%
Q4 11:28
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
90.6%
Brady White pass incomplete to Calvin Austin III, broken up by Dorian WilliamsSimilar
Q4 11:28
2ND & 10
OWN 22
0
90.6%
Brady White pass incomplete to Calvin Austin III, broken up by Macon ClarkSimilar
Q4 11:28
3RD & 10
OWN 22
+28
90.8%
Brady White pass complete to Tahj Washington for 28 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:28
2ND & 3
OPP 43
+8
88.7%
[Shotgun], WHITE, Brady pass incomplete to WASHINGTON, T. (Langham,W.), PENALTY TULANE pass interference (Langham,W.) 8 yards to the TULANE35, 1ST DOWN MEM, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 11:28
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
88.1%
Brady White pass incomplete to Calvin Austin III, broken up by Chase KuerschenSimilar
Q4 11:28
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+13
88.7%
[Shotgun], WHITE, Brady pass incomplete to WASHINGTON, T., dropped pass (Langham,W.), PENALTY TULANE personal foul (Langham,W.) 13 yards to the TULANE12, 1ST DOWN MEM, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 11:28
4TH & 10
OPP 12
-7
89.9%
Brady White sacked by Cameron Sample for a loss of 7 yards to the Tulan 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 23PUNT8 plays · 9 yds · 2:0795% → 97%
Q4 4:55
4TH & 13
OWN 28
0
96.6%
Ryan Wright punt for 49 yds , Calvin Austin III returns for no gain to the Memph 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 24INT3 plays · -8 yds · 0:004% → 4%
TULNDrive 25END OF GAME11 plays · 22 yds · 2:2197% → 99%
Q4 4:05
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-3
97.4%
Michael Pratt run for a loss of 3 yards to the Tulan 43 Michael Pratt fumbled, recovered by Tulan Michael PrattSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 5:13
Brady White pass complete to Sean Dykes for 6 yds for a TD (Riley Patterson KICK)
-14.6
TD · Q3 8:59
Michael Pratt run for 10 yds for a TD (Merek Glover KICK)
+12.4
TD · Q2 11:09
Michael Pratt run for 3 yds for a TD (Merek Glover KICK)
+9.6