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MEM

Memphis 10 at Navy 7

NAVY
2020 · Week 13 · Nov 28, 2020 · Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium
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Win probability · NAVY
modelNAVY aheadMEM aheadconfidence bandkey playNAVY scoreMEM score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 10:07 · J'arius Warren run for 24 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+34.0+17.00−17.0−34.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 16Pregame prior−32.5Home team on offense+0.0Score differential−0.1Garbage-time factor−0.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. KEY PLAY · Q3 12:55: Myles Fells run for 4 yds to the Memph 47 — NAVY win probability +8.5 pts (now 39%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  2. KEY PLAY · Q4 14:54: Asa Martin run for 1 yd to the Memph 47 — MEM win probability +13.0 pts (now 62%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q4 4:42: Asa Martin run for a loss of 3 yards to the Memph 25 — MEM win probability +13.7 pts (now 79%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 0:57: Timeout MEMPHIS, clock 00:57 — MEM win probability +10.6 pts (now 92%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 0:12: Dalen Morris pass complete to Mark Walker for 15 yds to the Navy 35 for a 1ST down — NAVY win probability +8.4 pts (now 14%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NAVY made the numbers' call on 10 of 10MEM made the numbers' call on 8 of 10
  1. Q1 15:00NAVY 4th & 4 at NAVY 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.1%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.2%
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:36MEM 4th & 11 at MEM 44, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.1%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.2%
    average punt
  3. Q1 10:07NAVY 4th & 1 at NAVY 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 22.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    22.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    22.3%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:52NAVY 4th & 5 at NAVY 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.3%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.4%
    average punt
  5. Q1 2:15MEM 4th & 13 at MEM 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.2%−0.4
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.6%
    average punt
  6. Q2 15:00NAVY 4th & 5 at NAVY 27, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.4%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.6%
    average punt
  7. Q2 11:35MEM 4th & 4 at NAVY 34, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 71.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    70.7%−0.5
    47% to make
    Punt
    70.4%−0.8
    average punt
  8. Q2 8:18NAVY 4th & 3 at MEM 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 33.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    33.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    32.9%−0.5
    average punt
  9. Q2 8:08MEM 4th & 13 at MEM 43, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.1%−1.4
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.4%
    average punt
  10. Q3 15:00MEM 4th & 2 at NAVY 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 66.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    67.3%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    66.4%−0.8
    average punt
  11. Q3 12:55NAVY 4th & 3 at MEM 44, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 39.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    40.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    37.3%−3.1
    27% to make
    Punt
    38.9%−1.6
    average punt
  12. Q3 10:47MEM 4th & 2 at NAVY 48, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 64.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    64.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    63.4%−1.4
    average punt
  13. Q3 10:47MEM 4th & 9 at NAVY 43, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.0%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    61.9%−1.3
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    63.2%
    average punt
  14. Q3 7:59NAVY 4th & 9 at NAVY 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.2%−1.7
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.9%
    average punt
  15. Q3 5:46MEM 4th & 11 at MEM 38, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.6%−2.5
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.0%
    average punt
  16. Q3 3:56NAVY 4th & 1 at NAVY 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 43.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    45.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    42.8%−2.2
    average punt
  17. Q4 10:53MEM 4th & 8 at NAVY 8, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 55.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.0%−2.0
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    54.0%
    90% to make
    Punt
    33.4%−20.6
    average punt
  18. Q4 7:37NAVY 4th & 2 at MEM 44, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 39.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    37.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    32.6%−5.3
    27% to make
    Punt
    33.0%−4.9
    average punt
  19. Q4 4:42NAVY 4th & 2 at MEM 28, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 37.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.4%−1.0
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    37.4%
    60% to make
    Punt
    21.8%−15.6
    average punt
  20. Q4 0:19MEM 4th & 2 at NAVY 49, up 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsPunted · 87.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.4%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.2%−1.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NAVY made the numbers' call on 1 of 1MEM made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 6:07NAVY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    27.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    27.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 3:52MEM Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NAVYDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0016% → 16%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
16.0%
Nelson Smith run for 4 yds to the Navy 29Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
16.0%
Tyger Goslin pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+2
16.0%
Nelson Smith run for 2 yds to the Navy 31Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
16.0%
Daniel Davies punt for 34 yds, downed at the Memph 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 2PUNT
7 plays · 9 yds · 0:0083% → 83%
Q1 13:36
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
16.6%
Brady White pass complete to Sean Dykes for no gain to the Memph 35Similar
Q1 13:36
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+7
16.6%
Brady White pass complete to Calvin Austin III for 7 yds to the Memph 42Similar
Q1 13:36
3RD & 3
OWN 42
+3
16.6%
Brady White pass complete to Sean Dykes for 3 yds to the Memph 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:36
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-2
16.6%
Marquavius Weaver run for a loss of 2 yards to the Memph 43Similar
Q1 13:36
2ND & 12
OWN 43
-8
16.6%
Brady White pass complete to Kylan Watkins for a loss of 8 yards to the Memph 35Similar
Q1 13:36
3RD & 20
OWN 35
+9
16.7%
Marquavius Weaver run for 9 yds to the Memph 44Similar
Q1 13:36
4TH & 11
OWN 44
+2
16.7%
Adam Williams punt for 41 yds , Mark Walker returns for 2 yds to the Navy 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 3TD
8 plays · 83 yds · 4:0018% → 23%
Q1 10:07
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+4
18.4%
Chance Warren run for 4 yds to the Navy 21Similar
Q1 10:07
2ND & 6
OWN 21
+4
18.4%
Chance Warren run for 4 yds to the Navy 25Similar
Q1 10:07
3RD & 2
OWN 25
+1
18.3%
Tyger Goslin run for 1 yd to the Navy 26Similar
Q1 10:07
4TH & 1
OWN 26
+24
18.2%
J'arius Warren run for 24 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:07
1ST & 10
50
+23
18.7%
Tyger Goslin pass complete to Mark Walker for 23 yds to the Memph 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:07
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
18.9%
Tyger Goslin pass incomplete to Devin MathewsSimilar
Q1 10:07
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+5
18.8%
Mark Walker run for 5 yds to the Memph 22Similar
Q1 6:07
3RD & 5
OPP 22
+22
23.3%
Nelson Smith run for 22 yds for a TD (Bijan Nichols KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 4TD
7 plays · 79 yds · 2:1577% → 80%
Q1 6:07
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+8
22.7%
Marquavius Weaver run for 8 yds to the Memph 29Similar
Q1 6:07
2ND & 2
OWN 29
+8
22.4%
Marquavius Weaver run for 8 yds to the Memph 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:07
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
22.5%
Brady White pass incomplete to Marquavius WeaverSimilar
Q1 6:07
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+43
22.6%
Brady White pass complete to Asa Martin for 43 yds to the Navy 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:07
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+6
21.7%
Asa Martin run for 6 yds to the Navy 14Similar
Q1 3:52
2ND & 4
OPP 14
+14
20.5%
Brady White pass complete to Calvin Austin III for 14 yds for a TD (Riley Patterson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0022% → 21%
Q1 3:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
21.7%
Tyger Goslin pass incomplete to Chance Warren, broken up by Jalil ClemonsSimilar
Q1 3:52
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
21.6%
Jamale Carothers run for 4 yds to the Navy 29Similar
Q1 3:52
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+1
21.5%
Myles Fells run for 1 yd to the Navy 30Similar
Q1 3:52
4TH & 5
OWN 30
+23
21.1%
Daniel Davies punt for 41 yds , Calvin Austin III returns for 23 yds to the Navy 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 0:0079% → 78%
Q1 2:15
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+1
21.2%
Kylan Watkins run for 1 yd to the Navy 47Similar
Q1 2:15
2ND & 9
OPP 47
+1
21.2%
Brady White pass complete to Tahj Washington for 1 yd to the Navy 46Similar
Q1 2:15
3RD & 8
OPP 46
-5
21.5%
MEMPHIS Penalty, false start (Dylan Parham) to the Memph 49Similar
Q1 2:15
3RD & 13
OWN 49
0
22.1%
Brady White pass incomplete to Sean DykesSimilar
Q1 2:15
4TH & 13
OWN 49
0
22.5%
Adam Williams punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Chance Warren at the Navy 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 17 yds · 0:4324% → 23%
Q1 0:43
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+5
23.6%
Nelson Smith run for 5 yds to the Navy 15Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 15
+7
24.1%
Nelson Smith run for 7 yds to the Navy 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+3
24.1%
Nelson Smith run for 3 yds to the Navy 25Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 25
+2
24.2%
Nelson Smith run for 2 yds to the Navy 27Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 27
0
23.8%
Tyger Goslin pass incomplete to Devin Mathews, broken up by Sanchez Blake Jr.Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 5
OWN 27
0
23.3%
Daniel Davies punt for 13 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Navy 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 8MISSED FG
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:1677% → 75%
Q2 12:51
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+5
23.3%
Brady White pass complete to Sean Dykes for 5 yds to the Navy 35Similar
Q2 12:51
2ND & 5
OPP 35
0
22.8%
Brady White pass incomplete to Javon Ivory, broken up by John MarshallSimilar
Q2 12:51
3RD & 5
OPP 35
+1
23.5%
Asa Martin run for 1 yd to the Navy 34Similar
Q2 11:35
4TH & 4
OPP 34
+52
24.9%
Riley Patterson 52 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 9DOWNS
7 plays · 20 yds · 3:1727% → 29%
Q2 11:35
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+7
26.6%
Nelson Smith run for 7 yds to the Navy 41Similar
Q2 11:35
2ND & 3
OWN 41
+5
27.7%
Nelson Smith run for 5 yds to the Navy 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:35
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
27.7%
Chance Warren run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 11:35
2ND & 6
50
0
27.9%
Nelson Smith run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 11:35
3RD & 6
50
+3
27.4%
Tyger Goslin run for 3 yds to the Memph 47Similar
Q2 8:18
4TH & 3
OPP 47
+1
28.9%
Chance Warren run for 1 yd to the Memph 46 Chance Warren fumbled, forced by Sanchez Blake Jr., recovered by Navy Myles FellsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 0:0076% → 73%
Q2 8:08
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-1
24.5%
Marquavius Weaver run for a loss of 1 yard to the Memph 45Similar
Q2 8:08
2ND & 11
OWN 45
+3
25.1%
Marquavius Weaver run for 3 yds to the Memph 48Similar
Q2 8:08
3RD & 8
OWN 48
-5
25.1%
MEMPHIS Penalty, false start (Obinna Eze) to the Memph 43Similar
Q2 8:08
3RD & 13
OWN 43
0
26.2%
Brady White pass incomplete to Sean DykesSimilar
Q2 8:08
4TH & 13
OWN 43
0
27.0%
Adam Williams punt for 38 yds, downed at the Navy 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 11INT
12 plays · 64 yds · 5:0129% → 36%
Q2 6:37
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-2
29.3%
Tyger Goslin sacked by Morris Joseph for a loss of 2 yards to the Navy 17Similar
Q2 6:37
2ND & 12
OWN 17
+9
29.1%
Tyger Goslin pass complete to Carlinos Acie for 9 yds to the Navy 26Similar
Q2 6:37
3RD & 3
OWN 26
+3
28.7%
Nelson Smith run for 3 yds to the Navy 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:37
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+8
29.6%
Nelson Smith run for 8 yds to the Navy 37Similar
Q2 6:37
2ND & 2
OWN 37
+6
30.9%
Jamale Carothers run for 6 yds to the Navy 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:37
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
31.2%
Myles Fells run for 3 yds to the Navy 46Similar
Q2 6:37
2ND & 7
OWN 46
-5
31.3%
NAVY Penalty, false start (Kip Frankland) to the Navy 41Similar
Q2 6:37
2ND & 12
OWN 41
+41
30.1%
Tyger Goslin pass complete to Chance Warren for 41 yds to the Memph 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:37
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+2
32.2%
Nelson Smith run for 2 yds to the Memph 16Similar
Q2 6:37
2ND & 8
OPP 16
-1
32.2%
Nelson Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the Memph 17Similar
Q2 1:36
3RD & 9
OPP 17
0
35.6%
Tyger Goslin pass intercepted Quindell Johnson return for no gain to the Memph 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 12FUMBLE
5 plays · 64 yds · 0:0070% → 72%
Q2 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+6
29.8%
Brady White run for 6 yds to the Memph 20Similar
Q2 1:30
2ND & 4
OWN 20
0
29.5%
Brady White pass incomplete to Kylan WatkinsSimilar
Q2 1:30
3RD & 4
OWN 20
+19
30.6%
Brady White pass complete to Javon Ivory for 19 yds to the Memph 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+28
28.1%
Brady White pass complete to Tahj Washington for 28 yds Tahj Washington fumbled, forced by Jamal Glenn, recovered by Navy Derek AtwatersSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 13END OF HALF
2 plays · 3 yds · 0:0033% → 33%
Q2 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+3
33.2%
Myles Fells run for 3 yds to the Navy 25Similar
Q2 0:45
2ND & 7
OWN 25
0
33.3%
Nelson Smith run for no gain to the Navy 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 14DOWNS
8 plays · 26 yds · 0:0069% → 70%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
31.0%
Brady White pass incomplete to Kylan WatkinsSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
31.2%
Marquavius Weaver run for 6 yds to the Memph 31Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+12
31.1%
Brady White pass complete to Tahj Washington for 12 yds to the Memph 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+2
29.0%
Marquavius Weaver run for 2 yds to the Memph 45Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 45
+6
28.8%
Marquavius Weaver run for 6 yds to the Navy 49Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 49
0
28.9%
Brady White pass incomplete to Kylan Watkins, broken up by John MarshallSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 2
OPP 49
0
30.1%
Brady White pass incomplete to Tahj Washington, broken up by Mitchell WestSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 15DOWNS
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0039% → 37%
Q3 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
38.6%
Myles Fells run for 4 yds to the Memph 47Similar
Q3 12:55
2ND & 6
OPP 47
+2
39.2%
Nelson Smith run for 2 yds to the Memph 45Similar
Q3 12:55
3RD & 4
OPP 45
+1
38.6%
Tyger Goslin run for 1 yd to the Memph 44Similar
Q3 12:55
4TH & 3
OPP 44
0
36.7%
Tyger Goslin run for no gain to the Memph 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 16PUNT
9 plays · 13 yds · 0:0068% → 66%
Q3 10:47
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-5
31.8%
MEMPHIS Penalty, false start (Matt Dale) to the Memph 39Similar
Q3 10:47
1ST & 15
OWN 39
+11
33.5%
Brady White pass complete to Sean Dykes for 11 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 10:47
2ND & 4
50
0
31.0%
Brady White pass incomplete to Calvin Austin IIISimilar
Q3 10:47
3RD & 4
50
+2
31.4%
Brady White pass complete to Timothy Taylor for 2 yds to the Navy 48Similar
Q3 10:47
4TH & 2
OPP 48
+4
32.9%
Brady White run for 4 yds to the Navy 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:47
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
31.0%
Marquavius Weaver run for no gain to the Navy 44Similar
Q3 10:47
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+1
31.0%
Marquavius Weaver run for 1 yd to the Navy 43Similar
Q3 10:47
3RD & 9
OPP 43
0
31.8%
Brady White pass incomplete to Calvin Austin III, broken up by Jamal GlennSimilar
Q3 10:47
4TH & 9
OPP 43
+29
34.2%
Adam Williams punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Chance Warren at the Navy 9 MEMPHIS Penalty, illegal motion (-5 Yards) to the Navy 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 17PUNT
6 plays · 16 yds · 0:0039% → 37%
Q3 7:59
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+4
39.1%
Nelson Smith run for 4 yds to the Navy 18Similar
Q3 7:59
2ND & 6
OWN 18
+11
39.1%
Carlinos Acie run for 11 yds to the Navy 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:59
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
39.7%
Chance Warren pass incomplete to Jamale Carothers, broken up by Thomas PickensSimilar
Q3 7:59
2ND & 10
OWN 29
0
39.2%
Tyger Goslin pass incomplete to Carlinos AcieSimilar
Q3 7:59
3RD & 10
OWN 29
+1
37.6%
Nelson Smith run for 1 yd to the Navy 30Similar
Q3 7:59
4TH & 9
OWN 30
0
37.0%
Ben Fee punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Calvin Austin III at the Memph 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 18PUNT
6 plays · 10 yds · 0:0063% → 60%
Q3 5:46
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+7
37.3%
Brady White pass complete to Kameron Wilson for 7 yds to the Memph 35Similar
Q3 5:46
2ND & 3
OWN 35
+4
35.6%
Kylan Watkins run for 4 yds to the Memph 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:46
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-1
35.6%
Asa Martin run for a loss of 1 yard to the Memph 38Similar
Q3 5:46
2ND & 11
OWN 38
0
36.6%
Brady White pass incomplete to Javon Ivory, broken up by Kevin BrennanSimilar
Q3 5:46
3RD & 11
OWN 38
0
37.8%
Brady White pass incomplete to Calvin Austin IIISimilar
Q3 5:46
4TH & 11
OWN 38
0
39.7%
Adam Williams punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Mark Walker at the Navy 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 19FUMBLE
7 plays · 33 yds · 3:5642% → 51%
Q3 3:56
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
42.2%
Xavier Arline run for no gain to the Navy 24Similar
Q3 3:56
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+2
41.9%
Chance Warren run for 2 yds to the Navy 26Similar
Q3 3:56
3RD & 8
OWN 26
+7
40.2%
Nelson Smith run for 7 yds to the Navy 33Similar
Q3 3:56
4TH & 1
OWN 33
+2
40.7%
Nelson Smith run for 2 yds to the Navy 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:56
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
42.8%
Nelson Smith run for 2 yds to the Navy 37Similar
Q3 3:56
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+20
43.6%
Nelson Smith run for 20 yds to the Memph 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
50.6%
TEAM run for no gain to the Memph 46 TEAM fumbled, recovered by Memph Cole Mashburn , return for 3 yds to the Memph 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 20FG
11 plays · 46 yds · 4:0162% → 71%
Q4 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+1
37.7%
Asa Martin run for 1 yd to the Memph 47Similar
Q4 14:54
2ND & 9
OWN 47
+9
37.9%
Brady White pass complete to Sean Dykes for 9 yds to the Navy 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
37.0%
Asa Martin run for 5 yds to the Navy 39Similar
Q4 14:54
2ND & 5
OPP 39
0
36.5%
Brady White pass incomplete to Sean DykesSimilar
Q4 14:54
3RD & 5
OPP 39
+10
37.6%
WHITE, Brady pass incomplete to DANIEL, Tyce, PENALTY NAVY holding (MARSHALL, John) 10 yards to the NAVY29, 1ST DOWN MEM, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+19
35.2%
Brady White pass complete to Sean Dykes for 19 yds to the Navy 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+1
35.2%
Marquavius Weaver run for 1 yd to the Navy 9Similar
Q4 14:54
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
-5
35.2%
MEMPHIS Penalty, false start (Obinna Eze) to the Navy 14Similar
Q4 14:54
2ND & GOAL
OPP 14
+6
36.3%
Brady White pass complete to Javon Ivory for 6 yds to the Navy 8Similar
Q4 14:54
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
0
36.9%
Brady White pass incomplete to Tahj Washington, broken up by Kevin BrennanSimilar
Q4 10:53
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
+26
29.3%
Riley Patterson 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 21MISSED FG
14 plays · 47 yds · 6:1135% → 35%
Q4 10:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
34.7%
Nelson Smith run for 5 yds to the Navy 30Similar
Q4 10:53
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+18
35.4%
Nelson Smith run for 18 yds to the Navy 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:53
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
39.2%
Nelson Smith run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 10:53
2ND & 8
50
+2
39.6%
Nelson Smith run for 2 yds to the Memph 48Similar
Q4 8:17
3RD & 6
OPP 48
+4
36.8%
Xavier Arline run for 4 yds to the Memph 44Similar
Q4 7:37
4TH & 2
OPP 44
+8
35.2%
Xavier Arline run for 8 yds to the Memph 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:37
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+6
38.8%
Nelson Smith run for 6 yds to the Memph 30Similar
Q4 6:14
2ND & 4
OPP 30
0
35.9%
Nelson Smith run for no gain to the Memph 30Similar
Q4 6:14
3RD & 4
OPP 30
+2
33.5%
Nelson Smith run for 2 yds to the Memph 28Similar
Q4 4:42
4TH & 2
OPP 28
+45
34.8%
Bijan Nichols 45 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 22PUNT
9 plays · 23 yds · 4:2379% → 94%
Q4 4:42
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-3
21.1%
Asa Martin run for a loss of 3 yards to the Memph 25Similar
Q4 4:42
2ND & 13
OWN 25
+2
22.6%
Brady White run for 2 yds to the Memph 27Similar
Q4 4:42
3RD & 11
OWN 27
+16
24.0%
Brady White pass complete to Tahj Washington for 16 yds to the Memph 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:42
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
18.7%
Marquavius Weaver run for 3 yds to the Memph 46Similar
Q4 4:42
2ND & 7
OWN 46
+3
18.8%
Marquavius Weaver run for 3 yds to the Memph 49Similar
Q4 0:57
3RD & 4
OWN 49
+2
8.2%
Marquavius Weaver run for 2 yds to the Navy 49Similar
Q4 0:19
4TH & 2
OPP 49
0
5.7%
Adam Williams punt for 49 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 23END OF GAME
3 plays · 15 yds · 0:0014% → 15%
Q4 0:12
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+15
14.1%
Dalen Morris pass complete to Mark Walker for 15 yds to the Navy 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:12
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
15.1%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:12
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
14.9%
Dalen Morris pass incomplete to Devin Mathews, broken up by T.J. CarterSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
End of Game · Final
Game over.
-14.9
KEY PLAY · Q4 4:42
Asa Martin run for a loss of 3 yards to the Memph 25
-13.7
KEY PLAY · Q4 14:54
Asa Martin run for 1 yd to the Memph 47
-13
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com