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TROY

Troy 29 at South Alabama 0

USA
2020 · Week 14 · Dec 5, 2020 · Hancock Whitney Stadium
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Win probability · USA
modelUSA aheadTROY aheadconfidence bandkey playUSA scoreTROY score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 4:17 · Eli Gainey pass incomplete to Jalen Tolbert, broken up by Zion Williams
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+57.0+28.50−28.5−57.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 165Home team on offense−55.7Score differential−43.6Garbage-time factor−21.0Pregame prior−0.8Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−11.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−5.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 11:06: Gunnar Watson pass complete to Khalil McClain for 15 yds for a TD (Evan Legassey KICK) — TROY win probability +5.2 pts (now 66%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 9:26: Gunnar Watson pass complete to Kaylon Geiger for 15 yds for a TD (Evan Legassey KICK) — TROY win probability +11.4 pts (now 78%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q2 6:47: Jamontez Woods run for 13 yds to the Troy 45 for a 1ST down — TROY win probability +5.0 pts (now 78%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 3:56: Gunnar Watson pass complete to Tray Eafford for 21 yds for a TD (Evan Legassey KICK) — TROY win probability +7.6 pts (now 86%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q2 0:31: Gunnar Watson pass complete to Kimani Vidal for 12 yds to the SAlab 44 for a 1ST down — TROY win probability +4.4 pts (now 88%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USA made the numbers' call on 8 of 10TROY made the numbers' call on 3 of 5
  1. Q1 11:44USA 4th & 7 at USA 17, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.7%−0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:02TROY 4th & 4 at USA 4, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 56.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.9%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    56.7%−0.1
    93% to make
    Punt
    55.2%−1.6
    average punt
  3. Q2 15:00USA 4th & 16 at TROY 49, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.3%−0.9
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.2%
    average punt
  4. Q2 9:26USA 4th & 5 at TROY 37, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 28.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    29.0%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    28.3%−0.7
    40% to make
    Punt
    28.2%−0.7
    average punt
  5. Q2 3:56USA 4th & 3 at TROY 46, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 20.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    20.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    18.5%−1.9
    23% to make
    Punt
    19.3%−1.0
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:39USA 4th & 9 at TROY 36, down 24
    Close callWent for it · 16.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    16.4%−0.7
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    17.1%
    42% to make
    Punt
    15.3%−1.9
    average punt
  7. Q3 15:00USA 4th & 5 at TROY 30, down 27
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.9%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    4.6%−0.2
    56% to make
    Punt
    3.7%−1.2
    average punt
  8. Q3 9:38TROY 4th & 1 at USA 15, up 27
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 96.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    96.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    95.6%−0.7
    83% to make
    Punt
    93.4%−2.9
    average punt
  9. Q3 5:58USA 4th & 3 at TROY 30, down 27
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    2.5%−0.5
    56% to make
    Punt
    1.9%−1.1
    average punt
  10. Q4 15:00TROY 4th & 1 at TROY 39, up 27
    Close callPunted · 98.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.9%−0.5
    average punt
  11. Q4 14:05USA 4th & 6 at USA 21, down 27
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.2%−0.3
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.5%
    average punt
  12. Q4 7:56TROY 4th & 9 at USA 16, up 27
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.4%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.5%
    81% to make
    Punt
    98.7%−0.8
    average punt
  13. Q4 7:02USA 4th & 17 at USA 11, down 27
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−0.2
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%
    average punt
  14. Q4 7:02TROY 4th & 5 at USA 30, up 29
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.7%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    99.6%−<0.1
    56% to make
    Punt
    99.5%−0.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 4:17USA 4th & 17 at TROY 36, down 29
    Close callWent for it · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.2%−0.1
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    0.2%
    42% to make
    Punt
    0.2%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TROY made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q2 11:06TROY Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 9:26TROY Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 3:56TROY Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TROYDrive 1INT
9 plays · 23 yds · 0:0061% → 61%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
38.6%
Kimani Vidal run for a loss of 1 yard to the Troy 24Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+2
38.6%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Kaylon Geiger for 2 yds to the Troy 26Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+9
38.6%
Gunnar Watson run for 9 yds to the Troy 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
38.6%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Tray Eafford for 5 yds to the Troy 40Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+3
38.6%
Kimani Vidal run for 3 yds to the Troy 43Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 0
0
38.6%
Vidal, Kimani rush for 2 yards to the TROY45 (Johnson, Kelvin), PENALTY USA offside defense off-setting, PENALTY TROY holding off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 43
+5
38.6%
Kimani Vidal run for 5 yds to the Troy 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
38.6%
Tez Johnson pass intercepted Dewayne Betts Jr. return for no gain to the SAlab 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0040% → 40%
Q1 11:44
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+1
39.8%
Carlos Davis run for 1 yd to the SAlab 15Similar
Q1 11:44
2ND & 9
OWN 15
+2
39.7%
Caullin Lacy run for 2 yds to the SAlab 17Similar
Q1 11:44
3RD & 7
OWN 17
0
39.6%
Desmond Trotter pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:44
4TH & 7
OWN 17
0
39.5%
Jack Brooks punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Tez Johnson at the Troy 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 3FG
13 plays · 56 yds · 4:1760% → 60%
Q1 10:19
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
39.8%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:19
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+9
39.9%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Khalil McClain for 9 yds to the Troy 49Similar
Q1 10:19
3RD & 1
OWN 49
+6
39.7%
Kimani Vidal run for 6 yds to the SAlab 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:19
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+3
39.6%
Kimani Vidal run for 3 yds to the SAlab 42Similar
Q1 10:19
2ND & 7
OPP 42
+6
39.6%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Kaylon Geiger for 6 yds to the SAlab 36Similar
Q1 10:19
3RD & 1
OPP 36
+9
39.6%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Khalil McClain for 9 yds to the SAlab 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:19
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+5
39.5%
Jamontez Woods run for 5 yds to the SAlab 22Similar
Q1 10:19
2ND & 5
OPP 22
0
39.5%
Gunnar Watson pass incomplete to Khalil McClainSimilar
Q1 10:19
3RD & 5
OPP 22
+12
39.6%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Kaylon Geiger for 2 yds to the SAlab 20 for a 1ST down SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, personal foul (Riley Cole) to the SAlab 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+8
39.5%
Kimani Vidal run for 8 yds to the SAlab 2Similar
Q1 10:19
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
39.5%
Kimani Vidal run for 1 yd to the SAlab 1Similar
Q1 10:19
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
-3
39.6%
Kimani Vidal run for a loss of 3 yards to the SAlab 4Similar
Q1 6:02
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+22
40.4%
Evan Legassey 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 4PUNT
14 plays · 26 yds · 6:0240% → 41%
Q1 6:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
40.3%
Desmond Trotter pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:02
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+8
40.3%
Caullin Lacy run for 8 yds to the SAlab 33Similar
Q1 6:02
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+2
40.6%
Desmond Trotter run for 2 yds to the SAlab 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:02
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
40.4%
Jared Wilson run for 6 yds to the SAlab 41Similar
Q1 6:02
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+3
41.2%
Jared Wilson run for 3 yds to the SAlab 44Similar
Q1 6:02
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+2
41.0%
Jared Wilson run for 2 yds to the SAlab 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:02
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
41.2%
Desmond Trotter pass incomplete to Trent TyreSimilar
Q1 6:02
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+7
40.8%
Caullin Lacy run for 7 yds to the Troy 47Similar
Q1 6:02
3RD & 3
OPP 47
+4
41.2%
Carlos Davis run for 4 yds to the Troy 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:02
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-5
41.5%
Carlos Davis run for a loss of 5 yards to the Troy 48Similar
Q1 6:02
2ND & 15
OPP 48
+2
40.8%
Terrion Avery run for 2 yds to the Troy 46Similar
Q1 6:02
3RD & 13
OPP 46
-3
40.5%
Desmond Trotter pass complete to Cade Sutherland for a loss of 3 yards to the Troy 49Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 16
OPP 49
0
40.8%
Jack Brooks punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Tez Johnson at the Troy 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 5TD
10 plays · 89 yds · 3:4859% → 66%
Q2 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+8
41.1%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Reggie Todd for 8 yds to the Troy 19Similar
Q2 14:54
2ND & 2
OWN 19
+11
40.9%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Jamontez Woods for 11 yds to the Troy 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
40.8%
Jamontez Woods run for 3 yds to the Troy 33Similar
Q2 14:54
2ND & 7
OWN 33
+5
40.6%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Kimani Vidal for 5 yds to the Troy 38Similar
Q2 14:54
3RD & 2
OWN 38
+7
40.2%
Kimani Vidal run for 7 yds to the Troy 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+6
40.0%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Kaylon Geiger for 6 yds to the SAlab 49Similar
Q2 14:54
2ND & 4
OPP 49
0
39.7%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:54
3RD & 4
OPP 49
+26
40.0%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Tray Eafford for 26 yds to the SAlab 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+8
39.2%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Kimani Vidal for 8 yds to the SAlab 15Similar
Q2 11:06
2ND & 2
OPP 15
+15
34.0%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Khalil McClain for 15 yds for a TD (Evan Legassey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 6FUMBLE
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0034% → 35%
Q2 11:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
34.2%
Jared Wilson run for 1 yd to the SAlab 26Similar
Q2 11:06
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
34.2%
Desmond Trotter pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:06
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+11
33.5%
Desmond Trotter pass complete to Jalen Wayne for 11 yds to the SAlab 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:06
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-7
34.7%
Desmond Trotter sacked by Richard Jibunor for a loss of 7 yards to the SAlab 28 Desmond Trotter fumbled, recovered by Troy Antonio Showers , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 7TD
3 plays · 28 yds · 0:4066% → 78%
Q2 10:06
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
33.8%
Gunnar Watson pass incomplete to Jamontez WoodsSimilar
Q2 10:06
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+13
33.9%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Reggie Todd for 13 yds to the SAlab 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:26
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
22.5%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Kaylon Geiger for 15 yds for a TD (Evan Legassey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 8INT
7 plays · 38 yds · 0:0026% → 27%
Q2 9:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
26.3%
Desmond Trotter pass complete to Caullin Lacy for 12 yds to the SAlab 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:26
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+21
26.9%
Desmond Trotter pass complete to Jalen Tolbert for 21 yds to the Troy 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:26
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+1
27.7%
Desmond Trotter run for 1 yd to the Troy 41Similar
Q2 9:26
2ND & 9
OPP 41
+1
27.6%
Carlos Davis run for 1 yd to the Troy 40Similar
Q2 9:26
3RD & 8
OPP 40
+3
27.5%
Desmond Trotter run for 3 yds to the Troy 37Similar
Q2 9:26
4TH & 5
OPP 37
0
27.4%
Desmond Trotter pass intercepted TJ Harris return for no gain to the Troy 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 9TD
8 plays · 68 yds · 2:5178% → 86%
Q2 6:47
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+13
22.4%
Jamontez Woods run for 13 yds to the Troy 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:47
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+9
21.7%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Jamontez Woods for 9 yds to the SAlab 46Similar
Q2 6:47
2ND & 1
OPP 46
+9
21.6%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Luke Whittemore for 9 yds to the SAlab 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:47
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
21.7%
Gunnar Watson pass incomplete to Kimani Vidal, broken up by Gi'Narious JohnsonSimilar
Q2 6:47
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+5
21.7%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Reggie Todd for 5 yds to the SAlab 32Similar
Q2 6:47
3RD & 5
OPP 32
+8
21.8%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Reggie Todd for 8 yds to the SAlab 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:47
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+3
21.6%
Kimani Vidal run for 3 yds to the SAlab 21Similar
Q2 3:56
2ND & 7
OPP 21
+21
14.0%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Tray Eafford for 21 yds for a TD (Evan Legassey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 10DOWNS
11 plays · 21 yds · 3:1718% → 16%
Q2 3:56
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+12
18.1%
Desmond Trotter pass complete to Jalen Wayne for 12 yds to the SAlab 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:56
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-5
19.2%
Desmond Trotter sacked by TJ Harris for a loss of 5 yards to the SAlab 42Similar
Q2 3:56
2ND & 15
OWN 42
+8
18.2%
Desmond Trotter pass complete to Jacob Hopper for 8 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 3:56
3RD & 7
50
+4
19.0%
Desmond Trotter pass complete to Jalen Wayne for 4 yds to the Troy 46Similar
Q2 3:56
4TH & 3
OPP 46
+9
19.1%
Desmond Trotter pass complete to Cade Sutherland for 9 yds to the Troy 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:56
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
19.5%
Desmond Trotter pass incomplete to Jalen TolbertSimilar
Q2 3:56
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+1
19.3%
Desmond Trotter pass complete to Caullin Lacy for 1 yd to the Troy 36Similar
Q2 3:56
3RD & 9
OPP 36
0
19.2%
Desmond Trotter pass incomplete to Jalen Tolbert, broken up by Reddy StewardSimilar
Q2 0:39
4TH & 9
OPP 36
-8
16.3%
Desmond Trotter sacked by Javon Solomon and Will Choloh for a loss of 8 yards to the Troy 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 11FG
7 plays · 29 yds · 0:2388% → 93%
Q2 0:31
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+12
11.9%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Kimani Vidal for 12 yds to the SAlab 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:31
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+11
11.7%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Bret Clark for 11 yds to the SAlab 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:15
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+6
12.0%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Kimani Vidal for 6 yds to the SAlab 27Similar
Q2 0:08
2ND & 4
OPP 27
+44
7.5%
Evan Legassey 44 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 12END OF HALF
2 plays · 10 yds · 0:0013% → 13%
Q2 0:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
12.6%
Jared Wilson run for 10 yds to the SAlab 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 13DOWNS
8 plays · 48 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+33
8.0%
Desmond Trotter pass complete to Jalen Tolbert for 33 yds to the Troy 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
8.8%
Desmond Trotter pass incomplete to Jalen Wayne, broken up by KJ RobertsonSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+10
8.5%
Jared Wilson run for 10 yds to the Troy 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-7
9.1%
Desmond Trotter sacked by Will Choloh for a loss of 7 yards to the Troy 42Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 17
OPP 42
+6
8.3%
Desmond Trotter pass complete to Cameron Hatcher-Owens for 6 yds to the Troy 36Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 11
OPP 36
+6
8.5%
Desmond Trotter pass complete to Cameron Hatcher-Owens for 6 yds to the Troy 30Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 5
OPP 30
0
8.2%
Desmond Trotter pass incomplete to Jared WilsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 14DOWNS
17 plays · 55 yds · 2:2894% → 96%
Q3 12:06
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
5.9%
Kimani Vidal run for 6 yds to the Troy 36Similar
Q3 12:06
2ND & 4
OWN 36
-2
5.7%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Kimani Vidal for a loss of 2 yards to the Troy 34Similar
Q3 12:06
3RD & 6
OWN 34
+8
6.0%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Reggie Todd for 8 yds to the Troy 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:06
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+9
5.6%
Kimani Vidal run for 9 yds to the SAlab 49Similar
Q3 12:06
2ND & 1
OPP 49
-10
4.9%
Watson, Gunnar pass incomplete to Whittemore, L., PENALTY TROY holding (Stidham, Austin) 10 yards to the TROY41, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 12:06
2ND & 11
OWN 41
0
5.7%
Gunnar Watson pass incomplete to Kimani VidalSimilar
Q3 12:06
3RD & 11
OWN 41
+11
5.7%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Tez Johnson for 11 yds to the SAlab 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:38
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
4.2%
Jamontez Woods run for 2 yds to the SAlab 46Similar
Q3 9:38
2ND & 8
OPP 46
+8
4.3%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Luke Whittemore for 8 yds to the SAlab 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:38
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+1
4.2%
Jamontez Woods run for 1 yd to the SAlab 37Similar
Q3 9:38
2ND & 9
OPP 37
+7
4.3%
Gunnar Watson run for 7 yds to the SAlab 30Similar
Q3 9:38
3RD & 2
OPP 30
+6
3.7%
Kimani Vidal run for 6 yds to the SAlab 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:38
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+2
4.0%
Kimani Vidal run for 2 yds to the SAlab 22Similar
Q3 9:38
2ND & 8
OPP 22
+7
4.0%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Reggie Todd for 7 yds to the SAlab 15Similar
Q3 9:38
3RD & 1
OPP 15
0
3.7%
Kimani Vidal run for no gain to the SAlab 15Similar
Q3 9:38
4TH & 1
OPP 15
0
4.5%
Kimani Vidal run for no gain to the SAlab 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 15DOWNS
10 plays · 55 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q3 5:58
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+3
3.2%
Terrion Avery run for 3 yds to the SAlab 18Similar
Q3 5:58
2ND & 7
OWN 18
+14
3.1%
Desmond Trotter pass complete to Jalen Tolbert for 14 yds to the SAlab 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:58
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
3.3%
Desmond Trotter run for 1 yd to the SAlab 33Similar
Q3 5:58
2ND & 9
OWN 33
+4
3.1%
Desmond Trotter pass complete to Caullin Lacy for 4 yds to the SAlab 37Similar
Q3 5:58
3RD & 5
OWN 37
+5
3.1%
Desmond Trotter run for 5 yds to the SAlab 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:58
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+21
3.4%
Caullin Lacy run for 21 yds to the Troy 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:58
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
3.6%
Jared Wilson run for no gain to the Troy 37Similar
Q3 5:58
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+1
3.4%
Jared Wilson run for 1 yd to the Troy 36Similar
Q3 5:58
3RD & 9
OPP 36
+6
3.4%
Desmond Trotter pass complete to Caullin Lacy for 6 yds to the Troy 30Similar
Q3 5:58
4TH & 3
OPP 30
0
3.4%
Desmond Trotter pass incomplete to Carlos DavisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:5698% → 98%
Q3 0:56
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+9
2.1%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Kaylon Geiger for 9 yds to the Troy 39Similar
Q3 0:56
2ND & 1
OWN 39
-1
1.7%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Jamontez Woods for a loss of 1 yard to the Troy 38Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 38
+1
1.5%
Kimani Vidal run for 1 yd to the Troy 39Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 39
0
1.7%
Jack Martin punt for 44 yds, downed at the SAlab 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q4 14:05
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+2
1.7%
Terrion Avery run for 2 yds to the SAlab 19Similar
Q4 14:05
2ND & 8
OWN 19
+2
1.6%
Terrion Avery run for 2 yds to the SAlab 21Similar
Q4 14:05
3RD & 6
OWN 21
0
1.6%
Desmond Trotter pass incomplete to Jalen WayneSimilar
Q4 14:05
4TH & 6
OWN 21
0
1.6%
Jack Brooks punt for 37 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Troy 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 18MISSED FG
9 plays · 42 yds · 4:4299% → 100%
Q4 12:38
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
0.6%
Kimani Vidal run for no gain to the Troy 42Similar
Q4 12:38
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+11
0.6%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Kaylon Geiger for 11 yds to the SAlab 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:38
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+14
0.6%
Kimani Vidal run for 14 yds to the SAlab 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:38
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+1
0.5%
Kimani Vidal run for 1 yd to the SAlab 32Similar
Q4 12:38
2ND & 9
OPP 32
+15
0.6%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Tray Eafford for 15 yds to the SAlab 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:38
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-4
0.5%
Gunnar Watson run for a loss of 4 yards to the SAlab 21Similar
Q4 12:38
2ND & 14
OPP 21
+6
0.6%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Bret Clark for 6 yds to the SAlab 15Similar
Q4 12:38
3RD & 8
OPP 15
-1
0.6%
Gunnar Watson sacked by Wy'Kevious Thomas for a loss of 1 yard to the SAlab 16Similar
Q4 7:56
4TH & 9
OPP 16
+33
0.4%
Evan Legassey 33 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Devin RocketteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 19SF
4 plays · -7 yds · 0:540% → 0%
Q4 7:56
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
0.2%
Desmond Trotter pass incomplete to Caullin Lacy, broken up by Justin WhisenhuntSimilar
Q4 7:56
2ND & 10
OWN 18
0
0.2%
Desmond Trotter pass incomplete to Devin VoisinSimilar
Q4 7:56
3RD & 10
OWN 18
-7
0.2%
Desmond Trotter sacked by Richard Jibunor and Luis Medina for a loss of 7 yards to the SAlab 11Similar
Q4 7:02
4TH & 17
OWN 11
0
0.2%
Jack Brooks punt blocked by Kaylon Geiger for a SAFETY blocked by Kaylon Geiger for a SAFETY for a SAFETYSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 20DOWNS
7 plays · 19 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 7:02
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+7
0.2%
Jamontez Woods run for 7 yds to the SAlab 38Similar
Q4 7:02
2ND & 3
OPP 38
+3
0.2%
Jamontez Woods run for 3 yds to the SAlab 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:02
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+5
0.2%
Kimani Vidal run for 5 yds to the SAlab 30Similar
Q4 7:02
2ND & 5
OPP 30
0
0.2%
Kimani Vidal run for no gain to the SAlab 30Similar
Q4 7:02
3RD & 5
OPP 30
0
0.2%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:02
4TH & 5
OPP 30
+4
0.3%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Tez Johnson for 4 yds to the SAlab 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 21DOWNS
9 plays · 38 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 4:17
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+11
0.1%
Eli Gainey pass complete to Jalen Tolbert for 11 yds to the SAlab 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:17
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
0.1%
Eli Gainey pass complete to Jalen Wayne for 5 yds to the SAlab 42Similar
Q4 4:17
2ND & 5
OWN 42
+13
0.1%
Eli Gainey pass complete to Jalen Tolbert for 13 yds to the Troy 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:17
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+5
0.1%
Eli Gainey pass complete to Jared Wilson for 5 yds to the Troy 40Similar
Q4 4:17
2ND & 5
OPP 40
+11
0.1%
Eli Gainey pass complete to Jared Wilson for 11 yds to the Troy 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:17
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
0.2%
Eli Gainey pass incomplete to Jalen Tolbert, broken up by George JacksonSimilar
Q4 4:17
2ND & 10
OPP 29
-7
0.1%
Eli Gainey pass complete to Jared Wilson for a loss of 7 yards to the Troy 36Similar
Q4 4:17
3RD & 17
OPP 36
0
0.1%
Eli Gainey pass incomplete to Jalen TolbertSimilar
Q4 4:17
4TH & 17
OPP 36
0
0.1%
Eli Gainey pass incomplete to Jalen Tolbert, broken up by Zion WilliamsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 22END OF GAME
2 plays · -4 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 1:06
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-2
0.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Troy 34Similar
Q4 1:06
2ND & 12
OWN 34
-2
0.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Troy 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 9:26
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Kaylon Geiger for 15 yds for a TD (Evan Legassey KICK)
-11.4
TD · Q2 3:56
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Tray Eafford for 21 yds for a TD (Evan Legassey KICK)
-7.6
TD · Q2 11:06
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Khalil McClain for 15 yds for a TD (Evan Legassey KICK)
-5.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com