2020 · Week 14 · Dec 5, 2020 · Allen E. Paulson Stadium
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Win probability · GASO
modelGASO aheadFAU aheadconfidence bandkey playGASO scoreFAU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 15:00 · Logan Wright run for no gain to the FlAtl 6
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remainingPregame prior
This game in five plays
- PUNT · Q2 13:29: Matt Hayball punt for 36 yds , Khaleb Hood returns for 49 yds for a TD (Alex Raynor KICK) — GASO win probability +7.4 pts (now 58%) (top driver: FAU has the ball).
- FUMBLE · Q3 12:38: Justin Tomlin run for no gain to the GeoSo 21 Justin Tomlin fumbled, forced by Ahman Ross, — GASO win probability +6.1 pts (now 72%) (top driver: GASO has the ball).
- FG · Q3 2:26: Vladimir Rivas 26 yd FG GOOD — FAU win probability +5.8 pts (now 29%) (top driver: FAU has the ball).
- TD · Q4 12:39: Logan Wright run for 2 yds for a TD (Alex Raynor KICK) — GASO win probability +12.2 pts (now 96%) (top driver: GASO has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q4 10:27: Justin Tomlin pass incomplete to Khaleb Hood, broken up by Ahman Ross — GASO win probability +6.0 pts (now 97%) (top driver: GASO has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
GASO made the numbers' call on 6 of 8FAU made the numbers' call on 4 of 7
- Q1 9:22GASO 4th & 8 at FAU 30, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 46.6% before the snapGo for it46.6%−<0.134% to convertField goalTheir call46.6%56% to makePunt46.4%−0.2average punt
- Q1 5:39FAU 4th & 4 at GASO 26, tiedClose callKicked a field goal · 53.3% before the snapGo for it53.2%48% to convertField goalTheir call53.1%−0.164% to makePunt51.9%−1.3average punt
- Q2 15:00GASO 4th & 1 at FAU 6, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 49.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call49.5%69% to convertField goal48.6%−0.991% to makePunt46.2%−3.3average punt
- Q2 13:29FAU 4th & 3 at FAU 13, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 50.7% before the snapGo for it51.0%−<0.152% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call51.0%average punt
- Q2 13:22FAU 4th & 14 at FAU 34, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.2% before the snapGo for it43.4%−1.418% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call44.9%average punt
- Q2 11:14GASO 4th & 2 at GASO 27, up 7Close callPunted · 55.4% before the snapGo for it55.9%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call55.3%−0.6average punt
- Q2 3:30GASO 4th & 7 at FAU 13, up 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 62.5% before the snapGo for it61.6%−0.534% to convertField goalTheir call62.1%85% to makePunt56.4%−5.6average punt
- Q2 1:31FAU 4th & 13 at GASO 37, down 10Close callWent for it · 33.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call32.7%−0.721% to convertField goal33.4%40% to makePunt32.6%−0.8average punt
- Q3 12:38GASO 4th & 11 at GASO 20, up 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.8% before the snapGo for it67.7%−2.125% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call69.7%average punt
- Q3 6:04GASO 4th & 11 at FAU 25, up 10Numbers favored field goal by 1.2 ptsWent for it · 76.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call75.1%−1.225% to convertField goal76.3%66% to makePunt69.0%−7.3average punt
- Q3 2:26FAU 4th & 8 at GASO 8, down 10Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 22.6% before the snapGo for it20.6%−1.126% to convertField goalTheir call21.7%90% to makePunt11.2%−10.5average punt
- Q4 12:32FAU 4th & 1 at FAU 44, down 14Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 11.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call11.2%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt8.9%−2.3average punt
- Q4 10:27GASO 4th & 3 at FAU 21, up 14Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 93.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call93.4%51% to convertField goal92.9%−0.574% to makePunt88.2%−5.2average punt
- Q4 4:51GASO 4th & 13 at FAU 20, up 14Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 96.3% before the snapGo for it95.3%−0.819% to convertField goalTheir call96.2%75% to makePunt93.4%−2.7average punt
- Q4 4:42FAU 4th & 6 at GASO 14, down 17Close callWent for it · 2.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call2.4%−0.537% to convertField goal2.9%84% to makePunt1.0%−1.8average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
GASO made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q4 12:39GASO Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call90.6%97% to makeGo for two90.6%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartGASODrive 1MISSED FG13 plays · 45 yds · 5:3849% → 50%
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 44
+5
48.5%
Justin Tomlin pass complete to Darion Anderson for 5 yds to the GeoSo 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 2MISSED FG10 plays · 37 yds · 3:4351% → 50%
GASODrive 3DOWNS12 plays · 68 yds · 5:3950% → 52%
Q1 5:39
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
51.2%
Justin Tomlin pass incomplete to Matt LaRoche, broken up by Eddie WilliamsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 4PUNT RETURN TD4 plays · 7 yds · 1:2549% → 42%
Q2 13:29
4TH & 3
OWN 13
+49
58.3%
Matt Hayball punt for 36 yds , Khaleb Hood returns for 49 yds for a TD (Alex Raynor KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 5PUNT8 plays · 6 yds · 0:0043% → 42%
Q2 13:22
2ND & 14
OWN 34
0
57.3%
Javion Posey pass incomplete to TJ Chase, broken up by Benz JosueSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 6PUNT4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0059% → 58%
Q2 11:14
4TH & 2
OWN 27
+54
57.6%
Anthony Beck II punt for 44 yds, fair catch by LaJohntay Wester at the GASOUTHERN 29 FLA ATLANTIC Penalty, Offensive holding (Jordan Helm) to the FlAtl 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 7FUMBLE5 plays · 28 yds · 0:0041% → 41%
Q2 9:57
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+2
59.1%
Javion Posey pass complete to Willie Wright for 2 yds to the FlAtl 21Similar
Q2 9:57
2ND & 8
OWN 21
+12
59.3%
Javion Posey pass complete to Malcolm Davidson for 12 yds to the FlAtl 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:57
3RD & 7
OWN 36
+9
59.0%
Javion Posey run for 9 yds to the FlAtl 47 Javion Posey fumbled, forced by Rashad Byrd, recovered by GeoSo Reid DedmanSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 8FG10 plays · 34 yds · 4:1864% → 67%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 9INT8 plays · 37 yds · 1:5034% → 30%
GASODrive 10END OF HALF3 plays · 18 yds · 0:0070% → 70%
FAUDrive 11FUMBLE6 plays · 52 yds · 0:0032% → 34%
Q3 14:55
2ND & 9
OWN 28
+15
68.5%
Javion Posey pass complete to Willie Wright for 15 yds to the FlAtl 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 7
OWN 46
+13
66.6%
Javion Posey pass complete to TJ Chase for 13 yds to the GeoSo 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+11
66.1%
Willie Wright run for 11 yds to the GeoSo 21 Willie Wright fumbled, forced by Benz Josue, recovered by GeoSo Parker DevineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 12PUNT4 plays · -1 yds · 0:0072% → 70%
FAUDrive 13INT3 plays · 27 yds · 0:0029% → 31%
Q3 11:23
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
68.7%
Javion Posey pass intercepted, touchback. Justin Birdsong return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 14DOWNS11 plays · 55 yds · 4:2874% → 76%
Q3 10:32
2ND & 11
OWN 19
-3
73.2%
Justin Tomlin run for a loss of 3 yards to the GeoSo 16 Justin Tomlin fumbled,Similar
Q3 10:32
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+33
74.8%
Justin Tomlin pass complete to Logan Wright for 33 yds to the FlAtl 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:32
3RD & 8
OPP 22
-8
74.7%
Justin Tomlin sacked by Chase Lasater for a loss of 8 yards to the FlAtl 30Similar
Q3 6:04
4TH & 16
OPP 30
+5
74.9%
A. Raynor field goal attempt from 47 BLOCKED, recovered by GS TEAM at FAU30 (blocked by Team), PENALTY FAU offside 5 yards to the FAU25, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:04
4TH & 11
OPP 25
0
76.0%
Justin Tomlin pass incomplete to Khaleb Hood, broken up by Teja YoungSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 15FG11 plays · 67 yds · 3:2025% → 29%
GASODrive 16TD11 plays · 78 yds · 4:3977% → 96%
Q3 0:55
2ND & 1
OWN 41
+32
80.9%
Justin Tomlin pass complete to Logan Wright for 32 yds to the FlAtl 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 17DOWNS7 plays · 18 yds · 0:009% → 9%
Q4 12:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
91.2%
Nick Tronti pass complete to BJ Alexander for 6 yds to the FlAtl 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 18FG10 plays · 23 yds · 5:3697% → 99%
Q4 10:27
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
96.7%
Justin Tomlin pass incomplete to Khaleb Hood, broken up by Ahman RossSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 19DOWNS11 plays · 63 yds · 0:002% → 3%
Q4 4:42
3RD & 1
OWN 32
+23
97.5%
Nick Tronti pass complete to James Charles for 8 yds to the GeoSo 40 for a 1ST down GA SOUTHERN Penalty, personal foul (Benz Josue) to the GeoSo 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:42
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+15
97.3%
TRONTI, Nick pass intercepted by J. Birdsong at the GS9, J. Birdsong return to the GS9, PENALTY GS pass interference (A. Wilson) 15 yards to the GS30, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 4:42
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+12
97.0%
Nick Tronti pass complete to James Charles for 12 yds to the GeoSo 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:42
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+8
96.8%
Nick Tronti pass complete to Jordan Merrell for 8 yds to the GeoSo 10Similar
Q4 4:42
3RD & 1
OPP 9
0
96.9%
Nick Tronti pass incomplete to TJ Chase, broken up by Derrick CanteenSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 20END OF GAME3 plays · 16 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 12:39
Logan Wright run for 2 yds for a TD (Alex Raynor KICK)
+12.2
PUNT · Q2 13:29
Matt Hayball punt for 36 yds , Khaleb Hood returns for 49 yds for a TD (Alex Raynor KICK)
+7.4
FUMBLE · Q3 12:38
Justin Tomlin run for no gain to the GeoSo 21 Justin Tomlin fumbled, forced by Ahman Ross,
+6.1