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AUB

Auburn 24 at Mississippi State 10

MSST
2020 · Week 15 · Dec 12, 2020 · Davis Wade Stadium
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Win probability · MSST
modelMSST aheadAUB aheadconfidence bandkey playMSST scoreAUB score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGFGFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 6:47 · Tucker Day punt for 47 yds , Eli Stove returns for 5 yds to the Aub 27
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+47.5+23.80−23.8−47.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 32Pregame prior−15.5Home team on offense−0.5Score differential−0.2Garbage-time factor−0.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q3 4:28: Anders Carlson 45 yd FG GOOD — AUB win probability +5.1 pts (now 70%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 10:03: Bo Nix pass complete to Seth Williams for 32 yds for a TD (Anders Carlson KICK) — AUB win probability +16.7 pts (now 93%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 8:24: Will Rogers pass complete to Austin Williams for 8 yds for a TD (Brandon Ruiz KICK) — MSST win probability +20.6 pts (now 36%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 8:24: Brandon Ruiz kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback — AUB win probability +8.0 pts (now 72%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 6:03: Bo Nix run for 3 yds for a TD (Bo Nix pass to Ze'Vian Capers for Two-Point Conversion) — AUB win probability +15.4 pts (now 97%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MSST made the numbers' call on 6 of 9AUB made the numbers' call on 8 of 11
  1. Q1 15:00AUB 4th & 12 at AUB 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.8%−0.1
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.9%
    average punt
  2. Q1 14:01MSST 4th & 8 at MSST 22, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.4%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.5%
    average punt
  3. Q1 13:07AUB 4th & 1 at MSST 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 62.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    62.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    62.0%−0.2
    36% to make
    Punt
    62.0%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:47AUB 4th & 7 at MSST 10, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 60.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.1%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    60.2%
    88% to make
    Punt
    58.9%−1.3
    average punt
  5. Q1 6:47MSST 4th & 4 at MSST 31, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.0%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.1%
    average punt
  6. Q1 5:04AUB 4th & 9 at MSST 49, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.9%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.1%
    average punt
  7. Q2 12:34AUB 4th & 4 at MSST 40, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 59.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    60.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    59.0%−0.9
    34% to make
    Punt
    59.2%−0.8
    average punt
  8. Q2 5:27MSST 4th & 11 at AUB 23, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 40.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.8%−1.2
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    39.9%
    70% to make
    Punt
    34.4%−5.5
    average punt
  9. Q2 5:15AUB 4th & 6 at MSST 47, tied
    Close callPunted · 57.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.2%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.8%−0.4
    average punt
  10. Q2 3:32MSST 4th & 9 at MSST 21, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.6%−1.8
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.4%
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:00AUB 4th & 18 at MSST 20, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 55.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.3%−3.0
    12% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    55.3%
    75% to make
    Punt
    47.8%−7.5
    average punt
  12. Q3 10:30MSST 4th & 3 at AUB 22, down 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 43.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    42.1%−0.8
    72% to make
    Punt
    33.3%−9.6
    average punt
  13. Q3 10:30AUB 4th & 5 at AUB 27, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.4%−0.7
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.1%
    average punt
  14. Q3 4:28AUB 4th & 14 at MSST 28, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 59.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.9%−3.2
    18% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    59.1%
    60% to make
    Punt
    49.3%−9.8
    average punt
  15. Q3 4:28MSST 4th & 18 at MSST 49, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.6%−3.5
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.1%
    average punt
  16. Q3 2:35AUB 4th & 3 at AUB 15, up 6
    Close callPunted · 66.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.2%−0.1
    average punt
  17. Q4 15:00MSST 4th & 5 at AUB 43, down 6
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsPunted · 36.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.5%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    34.5%−3.0
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    36.2%−1.3
    average punt
  18. Q4 5:57MSST 4th & 7 at AUB 46, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.0%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    5.8%−0.1
    23% to make
    Punt
    5.7%−0.2
    average punt
  19. Q4 2:49AUB 4th & 3 at MSST 47, up 14
    Close callPunted · 96.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.4%−0.4
    average punt
  20. Q4 2:43MSST 4th & 7 at MSST 16, down 14
    Close callWent for it · 3.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.2%−<0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    3.2%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MSST made the numbers' call on 1 of 1AUB made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q4 10:03AUB Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.0%−0.5
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.5%
    45% to convert
  2. Q4 8:24MSST Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    23.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    22.4%−0.6
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 6:03AUB Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · converted
    Kick
    91.9%−0.5
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    92.5%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
AUBDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 20 yds · 0:0068% → 68%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+22
32.3%
Bo Nix pass complete to Anthony Schwartz for 7 yds to the Aub 32 for a 1ST down MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Collin Duncan) to the Aub 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-2
32.3%
Tank Bigsby run for a loss of 2 yards to the Aub 45Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 12
OWN 45
0
32.3%
Bo Nix pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 12
OWN 45
0
32.3%
Bo Nix pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 12
OWN 45
0
32.3%
Oscar Chapman punt for 35 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0033% → 33%
Q1 14:01
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
32.8%
Will Rogers pass complete to Lee Witherspoon for 2 yds to the MisSt 22Similar
Q1 14:01
2ND & 8
OWN 22
0
32.8%
Will Rogers pass incomplete, broken up by Colby WoodenSimilar
Q1 14:01
3RD & 8
OWN 22
0
32.7%
Will Rogers pass incomplete, broken up by Nehemiah PritchettSimilar
Q1 14:01
4TH & 8
OWN 22
+28
32.7%
Tucker Day punt for 43 yds, downed at the MS State 35 MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, kick catching interference (-15 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 3FG
16 plays · 40 yds · 6:2067% → 65%
Q1 13:07
1ST & 10
50
-15
32.9%
AUBURN Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (-15 Yards) to the Aub 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:07
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
33.1%
Bo Nix pass complete to Eli Stove for 3 yds to the Aub 38Similar
Q1 13:07
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+14
33.0%
Tank Bigsby run for 14 yds to the MisSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:07
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+5
32.9%
Bo Nix run for 5 yds to the MisSt 43Similar
Q1 13:07
2ND & 5
OPP 43
0
32.9%
Bo Nix pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:07
3RD & 5
OPP 43
+4
33.0%
Bo Nix pass complete to Anthony Schwartz for 4 yds to the MisSt 39Similar
Q1 13:07
4TH & 1
OPP 39
+2
33.1%
Bo Nix run for 2 yds to the MisSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:07
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+8
32.9%
Bo Nix pass complete to Eli Stove for 8 yds to the MisSt 29Similar
Q1 13:07
2ND & 2
OPP 29
+6
32.9%
Tank Bigsby run for 6 yds to the MisSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:07
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
32.9%
Bo Nix pass incomplete to Eli StoveSimilar
Q1 13:07
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+9
32.9%
Bo Nix pass complete to Anthony Schwartz for 9 yds to the MisSt 14Similar
Q1 13:07
3RD & 1
OPP 14
+1
32.9%
Bo Nix run for 1 yd to the MisSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:07
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+3
32.9%
Shaun Shivers run for 3 yds to the MisSt 10Similar
Q1 13:07
2ND & 7
OPP 10
0
32.9%
Bo Nix pass incomplete, broken up by Collin DuncanSimilar
Q1 13:07
3RD & 7
OPP 10
0
33.0%
Bo Nix pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:47
4TH & 7
OPP 10
+27
34.9%
Anders Carlson 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 6 yds · 0:0035% → 35%
Q1 6:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-6
34.9%
Will Rogers sacked by Dre Butler for a loss of 6 yards to the MisSt 19Similar
Q1 6:47
2ND & 16
OWN 19
+7
34.8%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'Quavious Marks for 7 yds to the MisSt 26Similar
Q1 6:47
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+5
34.6%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Jaden Walley, PENALTY AU offside defense (Big Kat Bryant) 5 yards to the MS31, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 6:47
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
34.8%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Jo'Quavious MarksSimilar
Q1 6:47
4TH & 4
OWN 31
+5
34.6%
Tucker Day punt for 47 yds , Eli Stove returns for 5 yds to the Aub 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 5PUNT
8 plays · 24 yds · 0:0065% → 64%
Q1 5:04
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+6
35.5%
Tank Bigsby run for 6 yds to the Aub 33Similar
Q1 5:04
2ND & 4
OWN 33
+5
35.2%
Tank Bigsby run for 5 yds to the Aub 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:04
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+12
35.1%
Bo Nix pass complete to Anthony Schwartz for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:04
1ST & 10
50
-10
34.8%
Tank Bigsby rush for no gain to the 50 yardline (Kobe Jones;Tyrus Wheat), PENALTY AU holding (Nick Brahms) 10 yards to the AU40, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:04
1ST & 20
OWN 40
+5
35.4%
Bo Nix run for 5 yds to the Aub 45Similar
Q1 5:04
2ND & 15
OWN 45
+6
35.4%
Bo Nix pass complete to Eli Stove for 6 yds to the MisSt 49Similar
Q1 5:04
3RD & 9
OPP 49
0
35.1%
Bo Nix pass incomplete to Eli StoveSimilar
Q1 5:04
4TH & 9
OPP 49
0
35.8%
Oscar Chapman punt for 38 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 6INT
9 plays · 42 yds · 1:4736% → 37%
Q1 1:47
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+4
36.0%
Will Rogers pass complete to Malik Heath for 4 yds to the MisSt 15Similar
Q1 1:47
2ND & 6
OWN 15
+10
36.0%
Dillon Johnson run for 10 yds to the MisSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
36.1%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jaden Walley for 12 yds to the MisSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:47
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
36.5%
Will Rogers pass complete to Osirus Mitchell for 6 yds to the MisSt 43Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 43
+3
38.1%
Dillon Johnson run for 3 yds to the MisSt 46Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 46
+9
37.7%
Dillon Johnson run for 9 yds to the Aub 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
38.4%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Malik HeathSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 45
-2
38.3%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'Quavious Marks for a loss of 2 yards to the Aub 47Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 12
OPP 47
-28
36.9%
Will Rogers pass intercepted Roger McCreary return for 28 yds to the MisSt 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 7DOWNS
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0065% → 64%
Q2 12:34
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+5
35.4%
Bo Nix pass complete to Eli Stove for 5 yds to the MisSt 41Similar
Q2 12:34
2ND & 5
OPP 41
0
35.2%
Bo Nix pass complete to Seth Williams for no gain to the MisSt 41Similar
Q2 12:34
3RD & 5
OPP 41
+1
35.6%
Bo Nix pass complete to Eli Stove for 1 yd to the MisSt 40Similar
Q2 12:34
4TH & 4
OPP 40
0
36.5%
Bo Nix pass incomplete to Seth WilliamsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 8FG
15 plays · 37 yds · 5:1340% → 43%
Q2 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
39.5%
Will Rogers pass complete to Dillon Johnson for 4 yds to the MisSt 44Similar
Q2 10:40
2ND & 6
OWN 44
0
39.7%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Geor'quarius Spivey, broken up by Jaren HandySimilar
Q2 10:40
3RD & 6
OWN 44
-7
38.8%
Will Rogers sacked by Derick Hall for a loss of 7 yards to the MisSt 37Similar
Q2 10:40
4TH & 13
OWN 37
+15
36.7%
Tucker Day punt 45 yards to the AU18, downed, PENALTY AU roughing the kicker (1Z) 15 yards to the AU48, 1ST DOWN MS, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:40
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
40.1%
Will Rogers pass complete to Geor'quarius Spivey for no gain to the Aub 48Similar
Q2 10:40
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+13
39.9%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jaden Walley for 13 yds to the Aub 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:40
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-15
40.8%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Geor'quarius Spivey) to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:40
1ST & 10
50
-2
40.0%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'Quavious Marks for a loss of 2 yards to the MisSt 48Similar
Q2 10:40
2ND & 12
OWN 48
+15
38.6%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jaden Walley for 15 yds to the Aub 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:40
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+15
40.2%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to G. Spivey, PENALTY AU pass interference (Roger McCreary) 15 yards to the AU22, 1ST DOWN MS, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:40
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-10
40.9%
Will Rogers rush for no gain to the AU22 (Smoke Monday), PENALTY MS holding (Kameron Jones) 10 yards to the AU32, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:40
1ST & 20
OPP 32
+9
40.5%
Will Rogers pass complete to Dillon Johnson for 9 yds to the Aub 23Similar
Q2 10:40
2ND & 11
OPP 23
0
40.8%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Malik HeathSimilar
Q2 10:40
3RD & 11
OPP 23
0
39.6%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Geor'quarius SpiveySimilar
Q2 5:27
4TH & 11
OPP 23
+41
42.8%
Brandon Ruiz 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0062% → 60%
Q2 5:15
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
37.8%
Tank Bigsby run for 4 yds to the MisSt 47Similar
Q2 5:15
2ND & 6
OPP 47
0
37.6%
Bo Nix pass incomplete to Anthony SchwartzSimilar
Q2 5:15
3RD & 6
OPP 47
0
38.0%
Bo Nix pass incomplete to Seth WilliamsSimilar
Q2 5:15
4TH & 6
OPP 47
0
39.7%
Oscar Chapman punt for 47 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:5144% → 41%
Q2 4:23
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
43.6%
Will Rogers pass incomplete, broken up by Roger McCrearySimilar
Q2 4:23
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+1
43.5%
Jo'Quavious Marks run for 1 yd to the MisSt 21Similar
Q2 3:32
3RD & 9
OWN 21
0
42.1%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Lideatrick GriffinSimilar
Q2 3:32
4TH & 9
OWN 21
0
41.3%
Tucker Day punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Eli Stove at the Aub 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 11FG
10 plays · 37 yds · 3:1862% → 62%
Q2 3:18
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+34
37.9%
Tank Bigsby run for 34 yds to the MisSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:18
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+2
36.1%
Tank Bigsby run for 2 yds to the MisSt 21Similar
Q2 3:18
2ND & 8
OPP 21
+9
36.1%
Tank Bigsby run for 9 yds to the MisSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:18
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-10
36.1%
Bo Nix pass complete to Eli Stove for no gain to the MS12 (Collin Duncan), PENALTY AU holding (Seth Williams) 10 yards to the MS22, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 3:18
1ST & 20
OPP 22
+2
36.4%
Tank Bigsby run for 2 yds to the MisSt 20Similar
Q2 3:18
2ND & 18
OPP 20
0
37.0%
Bo Nix pass incomplete to Anthony SchwartzSimilar
Q2 0:44
3RD & 18
OPP 20
0
39.3%
Bo Nix pass complete to Anthony Schwartz for no gain to the MisSt 20Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 18
OPP 20
+37
37.9%
Anders Carlson 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 12MISSED FG
11 plays · 53 yds · 4:3039% → 39%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
38.9%
Dillon Johnson run for 5 yds to the MisSt 30Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+5
39.5%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jaden Walley for 5 yds to the MisSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
39.3%
Will Rogers run for 8 yds to the MisSt 43Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 43
+16
41.8%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jaden Walley for 16 yds to the Aub 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+12
42.5%
Jo'Quavious Marks run for 12 yds to the Aub 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
43.6%
Will Rogers pass complete to Austin Williams for no gain to the Aub 29Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+3
43.5%
Will Rogers pass complete to Lideatrick Griffin for 3 yds to the Aub 26Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 26
+4
42.1%
Will Rogers pass complete to Geor'quarius Spivey for 4 yds to the Aub 22Similar
Q3 10:30
4TH & 3
OPP 22
+40
39.3%
Brandon Ruiz 40 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0063% → 60%
Q3 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+2
37.4%
Tank Bigsby run for 2 yds to the Aub 24Similar
Q3 10:30
2ND & 8
OWN 24
+3
37.3%
Tank Bigsby run for 3 yds to the Aub 27Similar
Q3 10:30
3RD & 5
OWN 27
0
37.5%
Bo Nix pass incomplete to Shedrick Jackson, broken up by Shawn Preston Jr.Similar
Q3 10:30
4TH & 5
OWN 27
0
39.6%
Oscar Chapman punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Austin Williams at the MisSt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 14INT
7 plays · 9 yds · 0:0038% → 37%
Q3 8:51
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+4
38.2%
Will Rogers pass complete to Dillon Johnson for 4 yds to the MisSt 37Similar
Q3 8:51
2ND & 6
OWN 37
+3
40.4%
Dillon Johnson run for 3 yds to the MisSt 40Similar
Q3 8:51
3RD & 3
OWN 40
+4
39.9%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jaden Walley for 4 yds to the MisSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:51
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-10
41.2%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Osirus Mitchell, PENALTY MS holding (Kameron Jones) 10 yards to the MS34, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:51
1ST & 20
OWN 34
0
37.5%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Osirus MitchellSimilar
Q3 8:51
2ND & 20
OWN 34
+8
37.2%
Will Rogers pass complete to Lideatrick Griffin for 8 yds to the MisSt 42Similar
Q3 8:51
3RD & 12
OWN 42
-31
37.1%
Will Rogers pass intercepted Smoke Monday return for 31 yds to the MisSt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 15FG
8 plays · 10 yds · 2:1067% → 70%
Q3 6:38
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+8
33.0%
Bo Nix run for 8 yds to the MisSt 30Similar
Q3 6:38
2ND & 2
OPP 30
0
31.2%
Bo Nix pass incomplete to Anthony SchwartzSimilar
Q3 6:38
3RD & 2
OPP 30
+6
32.7%
Tank Bigsby run for 6 yds to the MisSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:38
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-5
31.2%
Bo Nix pass incomplete to Seth Williams, PENALTY AU ineligible downfield on pass (Brenden Coffey) 5 yards to the MS29, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:38
1ST & 15
OPP 29
+1
31.9%
Tank Bigsby run for 1 yd to the MisSt 28Similar
Q3 6:38
2ND & 14
OPP 28
0
32.7%
Bo Nix pass incomplete to Seth WilliamsSimilar
Q3 6:38
3RD & 14
OPP 28
0
34.8%
Bo Nix pass incomplete to Eli Stove, broken up by Shawn Preston Jr.Similar
Q3 4:28
4TH & 14
OPP 28
+45
29.7%
Anders Carlson 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 16PUNT
7 plays · 24 yds · 0:0031% → 29%
Q3 4:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
30.6%
Will Rogers pass complete to Geor'quarius Spivey for 5 yds to the MisSt 30Similar
Q3 4:28
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+27
31.2%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jaden Walley for 27 yds to the Aub 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:28
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
35.2%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Lideatrick GriffinSimilar
Q3 4:28
2ND & 10
OPP 43
0
34.6%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Brad Cumbest, broken up by Zion PuckettSimilar
Q3 4:28
3RD & 10
OPP 43
-8
33.3%
Will Rogers sacked by Colby Wooden for a loss of 8 yards to the MisSt 49Similar
Q3 4:28
4TH & 18
OWN 49
0
29.2%
Tucker Day punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Eli Stove at the Aub 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0071% → 69%
Q3 2:35
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+1
29.3%
Tank Bigsby run for 1 yd to the Aub 9Similar
Q3 2:35
2ND & 9
OWN 9
+6
29.7%
Bo Nix pass complete to Brandon Frazier for 6 yds to the Aub 15Similar
Q3 2:35
3RD & 3
OWN 15
0
30.0%
Bo Nix pass incomplete to Seth WilliamsSimilar
Q3 2:35
4TH & 3
OWN 15
0
31.2%
Oscar Chapman punt for 33 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Aub 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:0735% → 32%
Q3 1:07
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+5
35.3%
Will Rogers pass complete to Lideatrick Griffin for 5 yds to the Aub 43Similar
Q3 1:07
2ND & 5
OPP 43
0
35.4%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Lideatrick Griffin, broken up by Roger McCrearySimilar
Q3 1:07
3RD & 5
OPP 43
0
34.7%
Will Rogers run for no gain to the Aub 43Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 5
OPP 43
0
31.7%
Reed Bowman punt for 38 yds, downed at the Aub 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 19TD
12 plays · 95 yds · 4:4972% → 93%
Q4 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 5
0
27.9%
Tank Bigsby run for no gain to the Aub 5Similar
Q4 14:52
2ND & 10
OWN 5
+3
28.3%
Tank Bigsby run for 3 yds to the Aub 8Similar
Q4 13:27
3RD & 7
OWN 8
+25
28.8%
Bo Nix pass complete to Seth Williams for 25 yds to the Aub 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:27
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+27
25.1%
Tank Bigsby run for 27 yds to the MisSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:27
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+2
23.2%
Tank Bigsby run for 2 yds to the MisSt 38Similar
Q4 13:27
2ND & 8
OPP 38
+7
23.3%
Bo Nix pass complete to Luke Deal for 7 yds to the MisSt 31Similar
Q4 13:27
3RD & 1
OPP 31
+3
23.1%
Tank Bigsby run for 3 yds to the MisSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:27
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+1
22.3%
Shaun Shivers run for 1 yd to the MisSt 27Similar
Q4 13:27
2ND & 9
OPP 27
0
22.6%
Bo Nix pass incomplete to Anthony SchwartzSimilar
Q4 13:27
3RD & 9
OPP 27
-5
23.6%
AUBURN Penalty, false start (Seth Williams) to the MisSt 32Similar
Q4 10:03
3RD & 14
OPP 32
+32
7.0%
Bo Nix pass complete to Seth Williams for 32 yds for a TD (Anders Carlson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 20TD
6 plays · 29 yds · 1:2815% → 36%
Q4 9:52
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
15.2%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Jo'Quavious MarksSimilar
Q4 9:52
2ND & 10
OPP 29
0
14.7%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Lideatrick Griffin, broken up by Nehemiah PritchettSimilar
Q4 9:52
3RD & 10
OPP 29
+13
13.4%
Will Rogers run for 13 yds to the Aub 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:52
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+8
15.2%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jaden Walley for 8 yds to the Aub 8Similar
Q4 8:24
2ND & 2
OPP 8
+8
35.7%
Will Rogers pass complete to Austin Williams for 8 yds for a TD (Brandon Ruiz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 21TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 2:2177% → 97%
Q4 8:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
23.0%
Tank Bigsby run for 15 yds to the Aub 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:24
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+30
20.6%
Tank Bigsby run for 15 yds to the MS State 45 for a 1ST down MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, personal foul (Marquiss Spencer) to the MisSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:24
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+24
19.0%
Tank Bigsby run for 24 yds to the MisSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
18.8%
Tank Bigsby run for 3 yds to the MisSt 3Similar
Q4 6:03
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
3.4%
Bo Nix run for 3 yds for a TD (Bo Nix pass to Ze'Vian Capers for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 22DOWNS
9 plays · 34 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q4 5:57
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+16
4.8%
Will Rogers pass complete to Austin Williams for 16 yds to the MisSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:57
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
5.0%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Jaden WalleySimilar
Q4 5:57
2ND & 10
OWN 36
0
4.9%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Jaden WalleySimilar
Q4 5:57
3RD & 10
OWN 36
+15
4.8%
Will Rogers pass complete to Osirus Mitchell for 15 yds to the Aub 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:57
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-7
5.5%
Will Rogers sacked by Owen Pappoe for a loss of 7 yards to the MisSt 44Similar
Q4 5:57
2ND & 17
OWN 44
+10
4.9%
Will Rogers pass complete to Malik Heath for 10 yds to the Aub 46Similar
Q4 5:57
3RD & 7
OPP 46
0
5.4%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Malik HeathSimilar
Q4 5:57
4TH & 7
OPP 46
0
5.1%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Lideatrick GriffinSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 23PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 0:5698% → 98%
Q4 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
2.5%
Tank Bigsby run for 3 yds to the Aub 49Similar
Q4 3:45
2ND & 7
OWN 49
+4
2.5%
Tank Bigsby run for 4 yds to the MisSt 47Similar
Q4 2:56
3RD & 3
OPP 47
0
2.0%
Bo Nix run for no gain to the MisSt 47Similar
Q4 2:49
4TH & 3
OPP 47
0
2.1%
Oscar Chapman punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Austin Williams at the MisSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 24DOWNS
4 plays · -2 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 2:43
1ST & 10
OWN 13
-12
1.4%
Will Rogers sacked by Derick Hall for a loss of 12 yards to the MisSt 1Similar
Q4 2:43
2ND & 22
OWN 1
+9
1.5%
Will Rogers pass complete to Austin Williams for 9 yds to the MisSt 10Similar
Q4 2:43
3RD & 13
OWN 10
+6
1.5%
Will Rogers pass complete to Osirus Mitchell for 6 yds to the MisSt 16Similar
Q4 2:43
4TH & 7
OWN 16
-5
1.4%
Will Rogers sacked by Big Kat Bryant for a loss of 5 yards to the MisSt 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 25END OF GAME
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 0:35
1ST & 10
OPP 11
-2
1.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the MisSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 8:24
Will Rogers pass complete to Austin Williams for 8 yds for a TD (Brandon Ruiz KICK)
+20.6
TD · Q4 10:03
Bo Nix pass complete to Seth Williams for 32 yds for a TD (Anders Carlson KICK)
-16.7
TD · Q4 6:03
Bo Nix run for 3 yds for a TD (Bo Nix pass to Ze'Vian Capers for Two-Point Conversion)
-15.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com