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CCU

Coastal Carolina 42 at Troy 38

TROY
2020 · Week 15 · Dec 12, 2020 · Hancock Whitney Stadium
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Win probability · TROY
modelTROY aheadCCU aheadconfidence bandkey playTROY scoreCCU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDFGTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 9:20 · Reese White run for no gain to the Troy 1
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+37.5+18.80−18.8−37.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 140Pregame prior−5.4Home team on offense−14.5Garbage-time factor−5.6Score differential−4.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−4.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 3:18: Gunnar Watson pass complete to Reggie Todd for 41 yds for a TD, (Evan Legassey KICK) — TROY win probability +16.7 pts (now 35%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
  2. TD · Q4 5:03: Grayson McCall run for 2 yds for a TD, (Massimo Biscardi KICK) — CCU win probability +13.7 pts (now 96%) (top driver: CCU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 2:48: Jamontez Woods run for 3 yds for a TD, (Evan Legassey KICK) — TROY win probability +26.6 pts (now 35%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
  4. TD · Q4 1:20: Jacob Free pass complete to Tray Eafford for 6 yds for a TD, (Jacob Free pass to Khalil McClain for Two-Point Conversion) — TROY win probability +60.8 pts (now 91%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:35: Grayson McCall pass complete to Jaivon Heiligh for 23 yds for a TD, (Massimo Biscardi KICK) — CCU win probability +64.7 pts (now 95%) (top driver: CCU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TROY made the numbers' call on 5 of 5CCU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 8:19TROY 4th & 1 at CCU 49, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 21.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    21.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    21.4%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:19TROY 4th & 1 at CCU 30, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 21.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    21.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    21.3%−0.6
    56% to make
    Punt
    20.9%−1.0
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:02TROY 4th & 8 at CCU 24, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 22.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.8%−0.2
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    22.1%
    68% to make
    Punt
    19.6%−2.5
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:02CCU 4th & 3 at CCU 47, up 11
    Close callPunted · 77.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.0%−0.2
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:26CCU 4th & 7 at CCU 38, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.2%−0.3
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.5%
    average punt
  6. Q2 5:27TROY 4th & 10 at CCU 10, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 30.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.2%−0.9
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    30.1%
    88% to make
    Punt
    24.8%−5.2
    average punt
  7. Q3 15:00TROY 4th & 3 at TROY 34, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.3%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.3%
    average punt
  8. Q4 15:00CCU 4th & 1 at TROY 34, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 73.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    74.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    69.3%−4.9
    47% to make
    Punt
    67.9%−6.3
    average punt
  9. Q4 9:20CCU 4th & 1 at TROY 1, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 76.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    75.0%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    68.8%−6.2
    94% to make
    Punt
    53.4%−21.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TROY made the numbers' call on 3 of 4CCU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 13:48CCU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 8:22CCU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 12:26TROY Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    28.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    28.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 1:38CCU Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 4:33CCU Touchdown, up 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 3:18TROY Touchdown, down 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    27.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    27.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 5:03CCU Touchdown, up 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.5%−0.6
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 2:48TROY Touchdown, down 6 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    13.6%−0.8
    97% to make
    Go for two
    14.4%
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 1:20TROY Touchdown, up 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · converted
    Kick
    73.1%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    73.2%
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 0:35CCU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.7%−1.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CCUDrive 1TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 1:1281% → 80%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
19.3%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Jaivon Heiligh for 10 yds to the CCaro 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
19.3%
CJ Marable run for 6 yds to the CCaro 41Similar
Q1 13:48
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+59
19.6%
CJ Marable run for 59 yds for a TD, (Massimo Biscardi KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 2INT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0020% → 20%
Q1 13:48
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-2
19.7%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Kimani Vidal for a loss of 2 yards to the CCaro 27Similar
Q1 13:48
2ND & 12
OPP 27
+2
19.7%
Kimani Vidal run for 2 yds to the CCaro 25Similar
Q1 13:48
3RD & 10
OPP 25
0
19.7%
Gunnar Watson pass intercepted Brayden Matts return for no gain to the CCaro 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 3TD
9 plays · 90 yds · 4:1880% → 81%
Q1 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+15
19.9%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Isaiah Likely for 15 yds to the CCaro 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
19.9%
Shermari Jones run for 3 yds to the CCaro 28Similar
Q1 12:40
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+25
19.9%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Isaiah Likely for 25 yds to the Troy 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:40
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
19.7%
CJ Marable run for no gain to the Troy 47Similar
Q1 12:40
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+7
19.7%
CJ Marable run for 7 yds to the Troy 40Similar
Q1 12:40
3RD & 3
OPP 40
+7
19.7%
CJ Marable run for 7 yds to the Troy 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:40
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+13
19.7%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Kameron Brown for 13 yds to the Troy 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:40
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
19.7%
Grayson McCall pass incomplete to Jaivon HeilighSimilar
Q1 8:22
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+20
18.7%
Grayson McCall pass complete to CJ Marable for 20 yds for a TD, (Massimo Biscardi KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 4FG
15 plays · 45 yds · 4:1719% → 22%
Q1 8:19
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+8
19.3%
Kimani Vidal run for 8 yds to the Troy 39Similar
Q1 8:19
2ND & 2
OWN 39
+3
19.5%
Kimani Vidal run for 3 yds to the Troy 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:19
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+7
19.6%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Tez Johnson for 7 yds to the Troy 49Similar
Q1 8:19
2ND & 3
OWN 49
+2
19.6%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Tez Johnson for 2 yds to the CCaro 49Similar
Q1 8:19
3RD & 1
OPP 49
0
19.6%
Kimani Vidal run for no gain to the CCaro 49Similar
Q1 8:19
4TH & 1
OPP 49
+10
19.6%
Kimani Vidal run for 10 yds to the CCaro 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:19
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+2
19.6%
Kimani Vidal run for 2 yds to the CCaro 37Similar
Q1 8:19
2ND & 8
OPP 37
+7
19.6%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Marcus Rogers for 7 yds to the CCaro 30Similar
Q1 8:19
3RD & 1
OPP 30
0
19.7%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:19
4TH & 1
OPP 30
+4
19.6%
Jamontez Woods run for 4 yds to the CCaro 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:19
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+2
19.8%
Jamontez Woods run for 2 yds to the CCaro 24Similar
Q1 8:19
2ND & 8
OPP 24
0
19.8%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:19
3RD & 8
OPP 24
0
19.7%
Gunnar Watson pass incomplete to Kaylon GeigerSimilar
Q1 4:02
4TH & 8
OPP 24
+42
21.5%
Evan Legassey 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 22 yds · 0:0079% → 79%
Q1 4:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
20.8%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Sam Denmark for 15 yds to the CCaro 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:02
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
20.3%
CJ Marable run for 1 yd to the CCaro 41Similar
Q1 4:02
2ND & 9
OWN 41
+7
20.4%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Jaivon Heiligh for 7 yds to the CCaro 48Similar
Q1 4:02
3RD & 2
OWN 48
-1
20.5%
Reese White run for a loss of 1 yard to the CCaro 47Similar
Q1 4:02
4TH & 3
OWN 47
0
20.7%
Charles Ouverson punt for 40 yds, downed at the Troy 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 6TD
13 plays · 87 yds · 3:5121% → 28%
Q1 1:17
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+12
20.6%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Reggie Todd for 12 yds to the Troy 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
20.7%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Reggie Todd for 8 yds to the Troy 33Similar
Q1 1:17
2ND & 2
OWN 33
0
21.0%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:17
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+7
20.7%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Kaylon Geiger for 7 yds to the Troy 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:17
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
21.1%
Jamontez Woods run for 4 yds to the Troy 44Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 44
+13
21.4%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Kaylon Geiger for 13 yds to the CCaro 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+10
21.7%
Jamontez Woods run for 10 yds to the CCaro 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+4
22.2%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Kaylon Geiger for 4 yds to the CCaro 29Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 29
+8
22.2%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Reggie Todd for 8 yds to the CCaro 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+3
22.2%
Gunnar Watson run for 3 yds to the CCaro 18Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 18
+14
22.2%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Kimani Vidal for 14 yds to the CCaro 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
22.2%
Gunnar Watson pass incomplete to Kimani VidalSimilar
Q2 12:26
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
28.3%
Kimani Vidal run for 4 yds for a TD, (Evan Legassey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 13 yds · 0:0074% → 74%
Q2 12:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
25.8%
McCall, G. rush up middle for loss of 5 yards to the CCU20 (Martial, C.;Pierce, AJ), PENALTY TROY personal foul (Pierce, AJ) 10 yards to the CCU35, 1ST DOWN CCU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:26
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
25.4%
Grayson McCall pass incomplete to Jaivon HeilighSimilar
Q2 12:26
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+3
25.6%
Grayson McCall run for 3 yds to the CCaro 38Similar
Q2 12:26
3RD & 7
OWN 38
0
25.4%
Grayson McCall pass incomplete to CJ MarableSimilar
Q2 12:26
4TH & 7
OWN 38
0
26.3%
Charles Ouverson punt for 51 yds , Tez Johnson returns for no gain to the Troy 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 8FG
14 plays · 79 yds · 5:2827% → 32%
Q2 10:55
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+13
26.5%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Kaylon Geiger for 13 yds to the Troy 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:55
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+10
26.7%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Luke Whittemore for 10 yds to the Troy 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:55
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
26.9%
Kimani Vidal run for no gain to the Troy 34Similar
Q2 10:55
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+3
26.8%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Reggie Todd for 3 yds to the Troy 37Similar
Q2 10:55
3RD & 7
OWN 37
+16
26.6%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Kaylon Geiger for 16 yds to the CCaro 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:55
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
28.5%
Gunnar Watson pass incomplete to Tez JohnsonSimilar
Q2 10:55
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+15
28.4%
Jamontez Woods run for 15 yds to the CCaro 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:55
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-1
29.2%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Jamontez Woods for a loss of 1 yard to the CCaro 33Similar
Q2 10:55
2ND & 11
OPP 33
+8
29.1%
Jamontez Woods run for 8 yds to the CCaro 25Similar
Q2 7:40
3RD & 3
OPP 25
+20
29.0%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Kaylon Geiger for 20 yds to the CCaro 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
29.9%
Jamontez Woods run for 2 yds to the CCaro 3Similar
Q2 7:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
29.9%
Jamontez Woods run for 1 yd to the CCaro 2Similar
Q2 7:40
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
-6
29.0%
Gunnar Watson run for a loss of 6 yards to the CCaro 10 Gunnar Watson fumbled, recovered by Troy Gunnar WatsonSimilar
Q2 5:27
4TH & GOAL
OPP 10
+28
31.7%
Evan Legassey 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 9TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:4971% → 81%
Q2 5:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
29.1%
CJ Marable run for 11 yds to the CCaro 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:27
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
28.4%
Grayson McCall pass incomplete to Isaiah Likely, broken up by Javon SolomonSimilar
Q2 5:27
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+19
28.8%
Grayson McCall pass complete to CJ Marable for 19 yds to the Troy 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:27
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
27.3%
Grayson McCall run for 2 yds to the Troy 43Similar
Q2 5:27
2ND & 8
OPP 43
+7
27.3%
CJ Marable run for 7 yds to the Troy 36Similar
Q2 5:27
3RD & 1
OPP 36
+32
27.2%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Reese White for 32 yds to the Troy 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
26.5%
Grayson McCall run for 2 yds to the Troy 2Similar
Q2 1:38
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
18.8%
CJ Marable run for 2 yds for a TD, (Massimo Biscardi KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 10FG
11 plays · 66 yds · 1:3222% → 30%
Q2 1:32
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+12
21.9%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Reggie Todd for 12 yds to the Troy 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:32
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+8
22.9%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Kimani Vidal for 8 yds to the Troy 48Similar
Q2 1:32
2ND & 2
OWN 48
+5
23.9%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Kimani Vidal for 5 yds to the CCaro 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:44
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
23.6%
Gunnar Watson pass incomplete to Marcus RogersSimilar
Q2 0:44
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+24
23.1%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Kimani Vidal for 24 yds to the CCaro 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:44
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+7
24.7%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Marcus Rogers for 7 yds to the CCaro 16Similar
Q2 0:15
2ND & 3
OPP 16
+9
24.4%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Kaylon Geiger for 9 yds Kaylon Geiger fumbled, forced by Kendricks Gladney Jr., recovered by Troy Reggie Todd for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+23
29.8%
Evan Legassey 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0028% → 27%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
27.7%
Gunnar Watson pass incomplete to Kaylon GeigerSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+7
27.3%
Kimani Vidal run for 7 yds to the Troy 34Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 34
0
28.2%
Gunnar Watson pass incomplete to Reggie ToddSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 3
OWN 34
-3
26.8%
Jack Martin punt for 46 yds , Jaivon Heiligh returns for a loss of 3 yards to the CCaro 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 12TD
19 plays · 83 yds · 9:4874% → 86%
Q3 14:21
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+3
25.9%
CJ Marable run for 3 yds to the CCaro 20Similar
Q3 14:21
2ND & 7
OWN 20
+8
26.1%
CJ Marable run for 8 yds to the CCaro 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:21
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
25.7%
CJ Marable run for no gain to the CCaro 28Similar
Q3 14:21
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+6
26.1%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Jaivon Heiligh for 6 yds to the CCaro 34Similar
Q3 14:21
3RD & 4
OWN 34
+4
25.9%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Isaiah Likely for 4 yds to the CCaro 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:21
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-15
24.7%
COASTL CAROLINA Penalty, personal foul (Willie Lampkin) to the CCaro 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:21
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
25.9%
Reese White run for 2 yds to the CCaro 25Similar
Q3 14:21
2ND & 8
OWN 25
+6
26.0%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Jaivon Heiligh for 6 yds to the CCaro 31Similar
Q3 14:21
3RD & 2
OWN 31
+3
25.7%
Reese White run for 3 yds to the CCaro 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:21
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+8
25.4%
Grayson McCall pass complete to CJ Marable for 8 yds to the CCaro 42Similar
Q3 14:21
2ND & 2
OWN 42
+21
24.4%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Kameron Brown for 21 yds to the Troy 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:27
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-4
24.3%
CJ Marable run for a loss of 4 yards to the Troy 41Similar
Q3 8:27
2ND & 14
OPP 41
+14
25.2%
Grayson McCall run for 14 yds to the Troy 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:27
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+16
23.2%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Jaivon Heiligh for 16 yds to the Troy 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:27
1ST & 10
OPP 11
-5
23.2%
COASTL CAROLINA Penalty, false start (Trey Carter) to the Troy 16Similar
Q3 8:27
1ST & 15
OPP 16
+4
23.5%
CJ Marable run for 4 yds to the Troy 12Similar
Q3 8:27
2ND & 11
OPP 12
+6
23.4%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Kameron Brown for 6 yds to the Troy 6Similar
Q3 4:33
3RD & 5
OPP 6
+6
13.6%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Jaivon Heiligh for 6 yds for a TD, (Massimo Biscardi KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 13TD
6 plays · 69 yds · 1:0918% → 35%
Q3 4:27
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+1
17.8%
Kimani Vidal run for 1 yd to the Troy 32Similar
Q3 4:27
2ND & 9
OWN 32
+12
17.7%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Kimani Vidal for 12 yds to the Troy 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:27
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
18.4%
Gunnar Watson pass incomplete to Tez JohnsonSimilar
Q3 4:27
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+15
18.0%
Vidal, Kimani rush right for loss of 1 yard to the TROY43 (Jackson, T.), PENALTY CCU face mask (Jackson, T.) 15 yards to the CCU41, 1ST DOWN TROY, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:18
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+41
34.7%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Reggie Todd for 41 yds for a TD, (Evan Legassey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 14DOWNS
19 plays · 74 yds · 8:5873% → 77%
Q3 3:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
27.3%
Grayson McCall run for 7 yds to the CCaro 32Similar
Q3 3:18
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+2
26.1%
Shermari Jones run for 2 yds to the CCaro 34Similar
Q3 3:18
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+3
26.4%
Reese White run for 3 yds to the CCaro 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:18
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+20
26.3%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Jaivon Heiligh for 20 yds to the Troy 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:18
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+6
24.4%
Shermari Jones run for 6 yds to the Troy 37Similar
Q3 3:18
2ND & 4
OPP 37
-3
24.3%
Shermari Jones run for a loss of 3 yards to the Troy 40Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 40
+5
23.9%
TROY Penalty, Defensive offside (Antonio Showers) to the Troy 35Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 35
+1
23.6%
CJ Marable run for 1 yd to the Troy 34Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 34
+4
25.5%
Reese White run for 4 yds to the Troy 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+12
22.9%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Jaivon Heiligh for 12 yds to the Troy 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+6
22.8%
Grayson McCall run for 6 yds to the Troy 12Similar
Q4 12:16
2ND & 4
OPP 12
-5
22.5%
Marable, CJ rush right for 12 yards to the TROY0, clock 12:16, PENALTY CCU holding (Likely, I.) 5 yards to the TROY17, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:16
2ND & 9
OPP 17
+6
22.5%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Isaiah Likely for 6 yds to the Troy 11Similar
Q4 12:16
3RD & 3
OPP 11
+5
23.3%
CJ Marable run for 5 yds to the Troy 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
22.5%
Grayson McCall run for 3 yds to the Troy 3Similar
Q4 12:16
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
22.5%
Reese White run for 2 yds to the Troy 1Similar
Q4 12:16
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
23.3%
Reese White run for no gain to the Troy 1Similar
Q4 9:20
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
0
23.3%
Reese White run for no gain to the Troy 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 15INT
4 plays · 11 yds · 0:0032% → 32%
Q4 8:50
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
31.5%
Gunnar Watson pass incomplete to Reggie ToddSimilar
Q4 8:50
2ND & 10
OWN 1
+3
31.3%
Kimani Vidal run for 3 yds to the Troy 4Similar
Q4 8:50
3RD & 7
OWN 4
+8
29.8%
Jacob Free pass complete to Reggie Todd for 8 yds to the Troy 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:50
1ST & 10
OWN 12
-55
32.0%
Jacob Free pass intercepted Alex Spillum return for 55 yds to the Troy 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 16TD
6 plays · 4 yds · 2:1882% → 96%
Q4 7:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
17.9%
CJ Marable run for 1 yd to the Troy 3Similar
Q4 7:21
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
-3
17.9%
Grayson McCall sacked by Carlton Martial for a loss of 3 yards to the Troy 6Similar
Q4 5:51
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
18.1%
McCall, G. deep pass incomplete to Heiligh, J., PENALTY TROY pass interference (Dunlap, Terence) 4 yards to the TROY2, 1ST DOWN CCU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
17.8%
CJ Marable run for no gain to the Troy 2Similar
Q4 5:03
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
4.1%
Grayson McCall run for 2 yds for a TD, (Massimo Biscardi KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 17TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 2:157% → 35%
Q4 5:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
7.3%
Jacob Free pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:03
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+14
7.2%
Jacob Free pass complete to Kaylon Geiger for 14 yds to the Troy 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:03
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+8
8.3%
Jacob Free pass complete to Tray Eafford for 8 yds to the Troy 47Similar
Q4 5:03
2ND & 2
OWN 47
0
9.4%
Jacob Free run for no gain to the Troy 47Similar
Q4 5:03
3RD & 2
OWN 47
+7
8.9%
Kimani Vidal run for 7 yds to the CCaro 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:48
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+15
6.0%
Free, Jacob middle pass incomplete to Whittemore, L., PENALTY CCU pass interference (Matts, B.) 15 yards to the CCU31, 1ST DOWN TROY, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 3:48
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
7.9%
Jacob Free pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:48
2ND & 10
OPP 31
0
7.6%
Jacob Free pass incomplete to Kimani VidalSimilar
Q4 3:48
3RD & 10
OPP 31
+17
6.4%
Jacob Free pass complete to Tray Eafford for 17 yds to the CCaro 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:19
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
8.3%
Jacob Free pass incomplete to Kaylon GeigerSimilar
Q4 3:19
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+11
8.3%
Jacob Free pass complete to Tray Eafford for 11 yds to the CCaro 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
35.0%
Jamontez Woods run for 3 yds for a TD, (Evan Legassey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 18INT
6 plays · 2 yds · 0:1287% → 87%
Q4 2:48
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
13.4%
CJ Marable run for no gain to the CCaro 34Similar
Q4 2:43
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+2
13.3%
CJ Marable run for 2 yds to the CCaro 36Similar
Q4 2:36
3RD & 8
OWN 36
-4
13.0%
Grayson McCall pass intercepted Carlton Martial return for 4 yds to the CCaro 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 19TD
7 plays · 40 yds · 1:1128% → 91%
Q4 2:31
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+15
28.0%
Jacob Free pass complete to Kimani Vidal for 15 yds to the CCaro 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:31
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+6
30.8%
Jacob Free pass complete to Kaylon Geiger for 6 yds to the CCaro 19Similar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 4
OPP 19
0
30.3%
Jacob Free pass incomplete to Khalil McClain, broken up by D'Jordan StrongSimilar
Q4 2:00
3RD & 4
OPP 19
+9
27.5%
Jacob Free pass complete to Reggie Todd for 9 yds to the CCaro 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
30.3%
Jacob Free pass incomplete to Reggie Todd, broken up by Jordan MorrisSimilar
Q4 2:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+4
30.3%
Jacob Free run for 4 yds to the CCaro 6Similar
Q4 1:20
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
91.0%
Jacob Free pass complete to Tray Eafford for 6 yds for a TD, (Jacob Free pass to Khalil McClain for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 20TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 0:4520% → 95%
Q4 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+27
79.6%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Jaivon Heiligh for 27 yds to the Troy 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:20
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+5
71.4%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Jaivon Heiligh for 5 yds to the Troy 43Similar
Q4 1:03
2ND & 5
OPP 43
+4
69.5%
Grayson McCall run for 4 yds to the Troy 39Similar
Q4 1:03
3RD & 1
OPP 39
+16
69.2%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Isaiah Likely for 16 yds to the Troy 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:35
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+23
4.6%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Jaivon Heiligh for 23 yds for a TD, (Massimo Biscardi KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 21FUMBLE
4 plays · -6 yds · 0:0716% → 14%
Q4 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
15.6%
Jacob Free pass incomplete to Kimani VidalSimilar
Q4 0:28
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
14.8%
Jacob Free pass incomplete to Tray EaffordSimilar
Q4 0:28
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+10
14.0%
Jacob Free sacked by Jeffrey Gunter for a loss of 5 yards to the Troy 34 Jacob Free fumbled, recovered by CCaro Tarron Jackson , return for 0 yards COASTL CAROLINA Penalty, personal foul (Teddy Gallagher) to the Troy 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 22END OF GAME
1 play · -5 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q4 0:17
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-5
4.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the Troy 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:35
Grayson McCall pass complete to Jaivon Heiligh for 23 yds for a TD, (Massimo Biscardi KICK)
-64.7
TD · Q4 1:20
Jacob Free pass complete to Tray Eafford for 6 yds for a TD, (Jacob Free pass to Khalil McClain for Two-Point Conversion)
+60.8
TD · Q4 2:48
Jamontez Woods run for 3 yds for a TD, (Evan Legassey KICK)
+26.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com