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LOU

Louisville 17 at Virginia 31

UVA
2020 · Week 11 · Nov 14, 2020 · Scott Stadium
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Win probability · UVA
modelUVA aheadLOU aheadconfidence bandkey playUVA scoreLOU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 15:00 · Logan Lupo punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Billy Kemp IV at the Virg 16
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+30.0+15.00−15.0−30.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 41Home team on offense+0.6Pregame prior+5.7Garbage-time factor−0.1Score differential+0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 10:14: Malik Cunningham run for 19 yds for a TD (James Turner KICK) — LOU win probability +6.7 pts (now 47%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 9:58: Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Lavel Davis Jr. for 9 yds for a TD (Brian Delaney KICK) — UVA win probability +12.8 pts (now 80%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 2:49: Malik Cunningham run for 1 yd for a TD (James Turner KICK) — LOU win probability +17.5 pts (now 40%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  4. FG · Q4 10:01: Brian Delaney 23 yd FG GOOD — UVA win probability +12.3 pts (now 85%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 4:29: Brennan Armstrong run for 9 yds for a TD (Brian Delaney KICK) — UVA win probability +8.4 pts (now 97%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UVA made the numbers' call on 4 of 6LOU made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 15:00UVA 4th & 9 at UVA 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.9%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 3:59LOU 4th & 6 at UVA 30, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 31.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.0%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    31.0%−<0.1
    56% to make
    Punt
    30.7%−0.3
    average punt
  3. Q2 15:00LOU 4th & 9 at UVA 48, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.1%−0.3
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.4%
    average punt
  4. Q2 1:46LOU 4th & 22 at LOU 46, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.0%−1.4
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.4%
    average punt
  5. Q2 1:37UVA 4th & 4 at UVA 19, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.5%−0.3
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.8%
    average punt
  6. Q3 15:00LOU 4th & 2 at LOU 47, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 33.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    34.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    33.5%−0.8
    average punt
  7. Q3 9:58LOU 4th & 7 at LOU 28, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.2%−0.8
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.9%
    average punt
  8. Q3 7:49UVA 4th & 3 at UVA 47, up 11
    Close callPunted · 82.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.6%−0.6
    average punt
  9. Q4 10:01UVA 4th & 4 at LOU 5, up 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsKicked a field goal · 73.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.6%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    72.2%−1.4
    92% to make
    Punt
    56.9%−16.7
    average punt
  10. Q4 2:22UVA 4th & 1 at LOU 30, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 97.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    97.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    97.0%−0.6
    56% to make
    Punt
    96.4%−1.1
    average punt
  11. Q4 2:17LOU 4th & 2 at UVA 38, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    3.3%−0.6
    38% to make
    Punt
    2.8%−1.1
    average punt
  12. Q4 0:57UVA 4th & 8 at UVA 40, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.7%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.9%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UVA made the numbers' call on 3 of 4LOU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 7:13UVA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 10:14LOU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    38.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    38.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 6:03UVA Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 9:58UVA Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 2:49LOU Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    31.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    30.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 4:29UVA Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.5%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.6%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UVADrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:0058% → 58%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
57.6%
Billy Kemp IV run for 1 yd to the Virg 26Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
57.6%
Brennan Armstrong run for no gain to the Virg 26Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
57.6%
Brennan Armstrong pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
57.6%
Nash Griffin punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Rodjay Burns at the Lvile 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 2INT TD
12 plays · 54 yds · 6:2742% → 40%
Q1 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
57.7%
Malik Cunningham pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:40
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+5
57.7%
Maurice Burkley run for 5 yds to the Lvile 35Similar
Q1 13:40
3RD & 5
OWN 35
+11
57.7%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Braden Smith for 11 yds to the Lvile 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
57.6%
Maurice Burkley run for 2 yds to the Lvile 48Similar
Q1 13:40
2ND & 8
OWN 48
+14
57.6%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Braden Smith for 14 yds to the Virg 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:40
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+5
57.6%
Maurice Burkley run for 5 yds to the Virg 33Similar
Q1 13:40
2ND & 5
OPP 33
0
57.5%
Malik Cunningham pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:40
3RD & 5
OPP 33
+5
57.6%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Jordan Watkins for 5 yds to the Virg 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:40
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+15
57.5%
Malik Cunningham run for 15 yds to the Virg 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:40
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+3
57.5%
Maurice Burkley run for 3 yds to the Virg 10Similar
Q1 13:40
2ND & 7
OPP 10
-6
57.5%
Malik Cunningham run for a loss of 6 yards to the Virg 16Similar
Q1 7:13
3RD & 13
OPP 16
-85
60.3%
Malik Cunningham pass intercepted for a TD Noah Taylor return for 85 yds for a TD (Brian Delaney KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 3FG
7 plays · 54 yds · 3:1439% → 41%
Q1 7:13
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
60.8%
Malik Cunningham pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:13
2ND & 10
OWN 16
+50
60.9%
Jalen Mitchell run for 50 yds to the Virg 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:13
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+2
59.6%
Jalen Mitchell run for 2 yds to the Virg 32Similar
Q1 7:13
2ND & 8
OPP 32
-9
59.6%
Malik Cunningham sacked by Nick Jackson for a loss of 9 yards to the Virg 41Similar
Q1 7:13
3RD & 17
OPP 41
+11
60.7%
Malik Cunningham run for 11 yds to the Virg 30Similar
Q1 3:59
4TH & 6
OPP 30
+48
59.2%
James Turner 48 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 4FUMBLE
11 plays · 80 yds · 0:0060% → 61%
Q1 3:59
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+2
59.5%
Shane Simpson run for 2 yds to the Virg 19Similar
Q1 3:59
2ND & 8
OWN 19
+2
59.4%
Brennan Armstrong run for 2 yds to the Virg 21Similar
Q1 3:59
3RD & 6
OWN 21
+7
59.0%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Terrell Jana for 7 yds to the Virg 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:59
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+6
59.6%
Brennan Armstrong run for 6 yds to the Virg 34Similar
Q1 3:59
2ND & 4
OWN 34
+6
60.0%
Shane Simpson run for 6 yds to the Virg 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:59
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+8
60.2%
Shane Simpson run for 8 yds to the Virg 48Similar
Q1 3:59
2ND & 2
OWN 48
+10
60.5%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Ra'Shaun Henry, PENALTY LOU holding (Clark, K.) 10 yards to the LOU42, 1ST DOWN VA, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:59
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
60.7%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Billy Kemp IV, broken up by Kei'Trel ClarkSimilar
Q1 3:59
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+21
60.6%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Lavel Davis Jr. for 21 yds to the Lvile 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:59
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+20
60.9%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Tony Poljan for 20 yds Tony Poljan fumbled, forced by Marlon Character, recovered by Lvile Jack FagotSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 49 yds · 0:1640% → 40%
Q1 0:16
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+1
60.1%
Maurice Burkley run for 1 yd to the Lvile 4Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 4
+47
60.3%
Malik Cunningham run for 47 yds to the Virg 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+1
58.3%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Braden Smith for 1 yd to the Virg 48Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 48
0
58.3%
Malik Cunningham pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 48
0
58.8%
Malik Cunningham pass incomplete to Maurice BurkleySimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 9
OPP 48
0
59.9%
Logan Lupo punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Billy Kemp IV at the Virg 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 6INT
3 plays · 24 yds · 0:0060% → 61%
Q2 13:29
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+14
60.0%
Wayne Taulapapa run for 14 yds to the Virg 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:29
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+10
60.2%
Brennan Armstrong run for 10 yds to the Virg 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:29
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
61.0%
Brennan Armstrong pass intercepted Marlon Character return for a loss of 1 yard to the Lvile 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 7TD
5 plays · 59 yds · 2:1441% → 47%
Q2 12:28
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+36
58.9%
Malik Cunningham run for 36 yds to the Virg 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:28
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
57.5%
Jalen Mitchell run for no gain to the Virg 23Similar
Q2 12:28
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+4
57.7%
Jalen Mitchell run for 4 yds to the Virg 19Similar
Q2 10:14
3RD & 6
OPP 19
+19
53.5%
Malik Cunningham run for 19 yds for a TD (James Turner KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 8TD
10 plays · 67 yds · 4:1156% → 66%
Q2 10:14
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+20
56.3%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Lavel Davis Jr. for 20 yds to the Lvile 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:14
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
58.4%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Lavel Davis Jr., broken up by Kei'Trel ClarkSimilar
Q2 10:14
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+7
58.2%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Tavares Kelly Jr. for 7 yds to the Lvile 40Similar
Q2 10:14
3RD & 3
OPP 40
+3
58.2%
Wayne Taulapapa run for 3 yds to the Lvile 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:14
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+5
58.4%
Shane Simpson run for 5 yds to the Lvile 32Similar
Q2 10:14
2ND & 5
OPP 32
+11
59.4%
Ronnie Walker Jr. run for 11 yds to the Lvile 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:14
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+1
59.4%
Brennan Armstrong run for 1 yd to the Lvile 20Similar
Q2 10:14
2ND & 9
OPP 20
+12
59.4%
Shane Simpson run for 12 yds to the Lvile 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
66.1%
Brennan Armstrong run for 8 yds for a TD (Brian Delaney KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 9PUNT
11 plays · 21 yds · 4:1737% → 35%
Q2 6:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
63.2%
Maurice Burkley run for 5 yds to the Lvile 30Similar
Q2 6:03
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-1
62.6%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Braden Smith for a loss of 1 yard to the Lvile 29Similar
Q2 6:03
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+15
63.6%
Malik Cunningham run for 15 yds to the Lvile 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:03
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+14
61.4%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Dez Fitzpatrick for 14 yds to the Virg 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:03
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-9
60.8%
Burkley, M. rush for 1 yard to the VA41 (Nick Jackson;Nick Grant), PENALTY LOU holding (Brown, R.) 9 yards to the LOU49, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:03
1ST & 19
OWN 49
+1
62.0%
Malik Cunningham run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 6:03
2ND & 18
50
+9
62.1%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Justin Marshall for 9 yds to the Virg 41Similar
Q2 6:03
3RD & 9
OPP 41
-13
61.4%
Malik Cunningham sacked by Charles Snowden for a loss of 13 yards to the Lvile 46Similar
Q2 1:46
4TH & 22
OWN 46
+4
65.3%
Logan Lupo punt for 45 yds , Billy Kemp IV returns for 4 yds to the Virg 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0064% → 62%
Q2 1:37
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+3
63.6%
Wayne Taulapapa run for 3 yds to the Virg 16Similar
Q2 1:37
2ND & 7
OWN 16
+3
63.6%
Brennan Armstrong run for 3 yds to the Virg 19Similar
Q2 1:37
3RD & 4
OWN 19
0
62.6%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Billy Kemp IVSimilar
Q2 1:37
4TH & 4
OWN 19
0
61.6%
Nash Griffin punt for 40 yds, downed at the Lvile 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 11END OF HALF
6 plays · 26 yds · 0:1338% → 33%
Q2 0:23
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+14
62.3%
Malik Cunningham run for 14 yds to the Virg 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:16
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-3
62.8%
Malik Cunningham sacked by Zane Zandier for a loss of 3 yards to the Virg 48Similar
Q2 0:10
2ND & 13
OPP 48
0
66.2%
Malik Cunningham pass incomplete to Braden SmithSimilar
Q2 0:10
3RD & 13
OPP 48
+15
67.1%
Jalen Mitchell run for 15 yds to the Virg 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 12DOWNS
6 plays · 23 yds · 0:0037% → 39%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
62.8%
Malik Cunningham run for 14 yds to the Lvile 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
61.3%
Maurice Burkley run for 3 yds to the Lvile 42Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 42
+2
60.2%
Maurice Burkley run for 2 yds to the Lvile 44Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 44
+3
60.4%
Malik Cunningham run for 3 yds to the Lvile 47Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 2
OWN 47
+1
61.4%
Maurice Burkley run for 1 yd to the Lvile 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 13TD
5 plays · 48 yds · 2:1467% → 80%
Q3 12:12
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+1
66.5%
Shane Simpson run for 1 yd to the Lvile 47Similar
Q3 12:12
2ND & 9
OPP 47
+3
66.3%
Brennan Armstrong run for 3 yds to the Lvile 44Similar
Q3 12:12
3RD & 6
OPP 44
+33
66.0%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Terrell Jana for 33 yds to the Lvile 11 for a 1ST down LOUISVILLE Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:12
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+2
67.3%
Shane Simpson run for 2 yds to the Lvile 9Similar
Q3 9:58
2ND & 8
OPP 9
+9
80.1%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Lavel Davis Jr. for 9 yds for a TD (Brian Delaney KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0022% → 21%
Q3 9:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
77.6%
Jalen Mitchell run for 4 yds to the Lvile 29Similar
Q3 9:58
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+1
77.1%
Jalen Mitchell run for 1 yd to the Lvile 30Similar
Q3 9:58
3RD & 5
OWN 30
-2
77.8%
Malik Cunningham sacked by Mandy Alonso for a loss of 2 yards to the Lvile 28Similar
Q3 9:58
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
79.0%
Logan Lupo punt for 32 yds, downed at the Virg 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0081% → 79%
Q3 7:49
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-1
81.2%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Tavares Kelly Jr. for a loss of 1 yard to the Virg 39Similar
Q3 7:49
2ND & 11
OWN 39
+7
80.7%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Billy Kemp IV for 7 yds to the Virg 46Similar
Q3 7:49
3RD & 4
OWN 46
+1
80.4%
Shane Simpson run for 1 yd to the Virg 47Similar
Q3 7:49
4TH & 3
OWN 47
0
79.4%
Nash Griffin punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Rodjay Burns at the Lvile 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 16TD
7 plays · 88 yds · 3:0120% → 40%
Q3 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+14
80.1%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Dez Fitzpatrick for 14 yds to the Lvile 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+14
79.8%
Malik Cunningham run for 14 yds to the Lvile 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+13
78.5%
Maurice Burkley run for 13 yds to the Virg 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:50
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+5
77.2%
Burkley, M. rush for 2 yards to the VA45 (Nick Jackson), PENALTY VA illegal participation 5 yards to the VA42, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:50
1ST & 5
OPP 42
-5
76.7%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, Offensive offside (Cameron DeGeorge) to the Virg 47Similar
Q3 5:50
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+46
77.2%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Marshon Ford for 46 yds to the Virg 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
59.7%
Malik Cunningham run for 1 yd for a TD (James Turner KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 17FG
18 plays · 69 yds · 7:4869% → 85%
Q3 2:49
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
69.3%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Grant MischSimilar
Q3 2:49
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+17
68.8%
Brennan Armstrong run for 2 yds to the Virg 28 for a 1ST down LOUISVILLE Penalty, personal foul (Monty Montgomery) to the Virg 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:49
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+7
71.4%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Shane Simpson for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 2:49
2ND & 3
50
+6
72.3%
Shane Simpson run for 6 yds to the Lvile 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:49
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
72.6%
Ronnie Walker Jr. run for no gain to the Lvile 44Similar
Q3 2:49
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+2
72.3%
Brennan Armstrong run for 2 yds to the Lvile 42Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 42
+6
72.3%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Terrell Jana for 6 yds to the Lvile 36Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 2
OPP 36
+5
70.8%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, Defensive offside (Dayna Kinnaird) to the Lvile 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-3
74.5%
Brennan Armstrong sacked by Dayna Kinnaird for a loss of 3 yards to the Lvile 34Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 13
OPP 34
+4
73.0%
Shane Simpson run for 4 yds to the Lvile 30Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 30
+9
72.7%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Lavel Davis Jr. for 24 yds to the Lvile 6 for a 1ST down VIRGINIA Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Lavel Davis Jr.) to the Lvile 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+6
74.5%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Demick Starling for 6 yds to the Lvile 15Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 15
+4
74.5%
Brennan Armstrong run for 4 yds to the Lvile 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
74.5%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Grant MischSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 11
+4
74.5%
Shane Simpson run for 4 yds to the Lvile 7Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 7
+2
73.0%
Brennan Armstrong run for 2 yds to the Lvile 5Similar
Q4 10:01
4TH & 4
OPP 5
+23
85.3%
Brian Delaney 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 18FUMBLE
5 plays · 36 yds · 0:0020% → 22%
Q4 10:01
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-5
80.1%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, false start (Renato Brown) to the Lvile 24Similar
Q4 10:01
1ST & 15
OWN 24
+4
80.9%
Maurice Burkley run for 4 yds to the Lvile 28Similar
Q4 10:01
2ND & 11
OWN 28
+10
80.9%
Malik Cunningham run for 10 yds to the Lvile 38Similar
Q4 10:01
3RD & 1
OWN 38
+27
78.2%
Malik Cunningham run for 27 yds to the Virg 35 Malik Cunningham fumbled, forced by Nick Grant, recovered by Virg Nick GrantSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 19TD
8 plays · 65 yds · 3:5387% → 97%
Q4 8:22
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
86.5%
Wayne Taulapapa run for 1 yd to the Virg 36Similar
Q4 8:22
2ND & 9
OWN 36
0
86.9%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Demick StarlingSimilar
Q4 8:22
3RD & 9
OWN 36
+29
86.3%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Billy Kemp IV for 29 yds to the Lvile 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:22
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+11
88.4%
Brennan Armstrong run for 11 yds to the Lvile 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:22
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+10
88.4%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Billy Kemp IV for 10 yds to the Lvile 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:22
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+6
88.4%
Wayne Taulapapa run for 6 yds to the Lvile 8Similar
Q4 8:22
2ND & 4
OPP 8
-1
88.4%
Shane Simpson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Lvile 9Similar
Q4 4:29
3RD & 5
OPP 9
+9
96.8%
Brennan Armstrong run for 9 yds for a TD (Brian Delaney KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 20FUMBLE
2 plays · 14 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q4 4:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
95.3%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Dez Fitzpatrick for 13 yds Dez Fitzpatrick fumbled, forced by Zane Zandier, recovered by Virg Antonio ClarySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 21DOWNS
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:5297% → 98%
Q4 4:14
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+9
96.9%
Ronnie Walker Jr. run for 9 yds to the Lvile 30Similar
Q4 4:14
2ND & 1
OPP 30
-2
96.9%
Ronnie Walker Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the Lvile 32Similar
Q4 4:14
3RD & 3
OPP 32
+2
96.8%
Billy Kemp IV run for 2 yds to the Lvile 30Similar
Q4 2:22
4TH & 1
OPP 30
0
98.0%
Wayne Taulapapa run for no gain to the Lvile 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 22DOWNS
5 plays · 32 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q4 2:17
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+24
97.3%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Dez Fitzpatrick for 24 yds to the Virg 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:17
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+5
97.2%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Maurice Burkley for 5 yds to the Virg 41Similar
Q4 2:17
2ND & 5
OPP 41
0
96.9%
Maurice Burkley run for no gain to the Virg 41Similar
Q4 2:17
3RD & 5
OPP 41
+3
97.2%
Malik Cunningham run for 3 yds to the Virg 38Similar
Q4 2:17
4TH & 2
OPP 38
0
97.2%
Malik Cunningham pass incomplete to Dez FitzpatrickSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 23PUNT
7 plays · 2 yds · 0:1698% → 98%
Q4 1:13
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
98.4%
Wayne Taulapapa run for 2 yds to the Virg 40Similar
Q4 1:06
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+3
98.5%
Wayne Taulapapa run for 3 yds to the Virg 43Similar
Q4 0:57
3RD & 5
OWN 43
+2
98.6%
Ronnie Walker Jr. run for 2 yds to the Virg 45Similar
Q4 0:57
4TH & 3
OWN 45
-5
98.4%
VIRGINIA Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the Virg 40Similar
Q4 0:57
4TH & 8
OWN 40
0
98.4%
Nash Griffin punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Rodjay Burns at the Lvile 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 24END OF GAME
1 play · 5 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+5
98.8%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Dez Fitzpatrick for 5 yds to the Lvile 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 2:49
Malik Cunningham run for 1 yd for a TD (James Turner KICK)
-17.5
TD · Q3 9:58
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Lavel Davis Jr. for 9 yds for a TD (Brian Delaney KICK)
+12.8
FG · Q4 10:01
Brian Delaney 23 yd FG GOOD
+12.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com