Try the model
FAU

Florida Atlantic 31 at Southern Miss 45

USM
2020 · Week 15 · Dec 10, 2020 · M. M. Roberts Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · USM
modelUSM aheadFAU aheadconfidence bandkey playUSM scoreFAU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGFGTDTDTDTDTDTDFUMBLETDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:27 · Team run for a loss of 1 yard to the SoMis 19
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+31.0+15.50−15.5−31.0Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 4:39: James Charles run for 12 yds for a TD, (Vladimir Rivas KICK) — FAU win probability +10.3 pts (now 66%) (top driver: FAU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 11:08: Trey Lowe pass complete to Jason Brownlee for 43 yds for a TD, (Briggs Bourgeois KICK) — USM win probability +17.2 pts (now 75%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 3:53: James Charles run for 1 yd for a TD, (Vladimir Rivas KICK) — FAU win probability +12.9 pts (now 40%) (top driver: FAU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 3:39: Aaron Shahriari kickoff for 65 yds , Camron Harrell return for 100 yds for a TD, (Briggs Bourgeois KICK) — USM win probability +21.3 pts (now 82%) (top driver: FAU has the ball).
  5. FUMBLE · Q3 0:54: Trey Lowe run for a loss of 6 yards Trey Lowe fumbled, recovered by FlAtl Armani-Eli Adams , return for 43 yds, (Vladimir Rivas KICK) — FAU win probability +11.3 pts (now 23%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USM made the numbers' call on 3 of 4FAU made the numbers' call on 7 of 10
  1. Q1 15:00FAU 4th & 6 at FAU 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.2%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.2%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:41FAU 4th & 2 at FAU 31, up 7
    Close callPunted · 71.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.6%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:05FAU 4th & 8 at USM 44, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.7%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    68.5%−0.2
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    68.7%
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:34USM 4th & 11 at FAU 20, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 34.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.9%−0.4
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    34.3%
    75% to make
    Punt
    32.6%−1.7
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:18FAU 4th & 4 at USM 22, down 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 62.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.8%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    61.5%−0.2
    72% to make
    Punt
    58.3%−3.5
    average punt
  6. Q3 11:08FAU 4th & 10 at USM 38, down 14
    Close callPunted · 27.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.5%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    27.3%−0.2
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    27.3%−0.2
    average punt
  7. Q3 9:39USM 4th & 2 at USM 25, up 14
    Close callPunted · 75.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.8%−0.7
    average punt
  8. Q3 3:39FAU 4th & 16 at FAU 9, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.9%−2.9
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.8%
    average punt
  9. Q4 15:00USM 4th & 16 at USM 24, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.2%−5.3
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.5%
    average punt
  10. Q4 14:47FAU 4th & 12 at USM 49, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.1%−2.8
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.8%
    average punt
  11. Q4 4:55FAU 4th & 5 at FAU 35, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.3%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    4.6%−0.7
    average punt
  12. Q4 3:08USM 4th & 7 at FAU 32, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 97.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    96.9%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    96.9%−<0.1
    51% to make
    Punt
    96.3%−0.6
    average punt
  13. Q4 2:59FAU 4th & 5 at FAU 31, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.6%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    3.1%−0.5
    average punt
  14. Q4 0:46FAU 4th & 10 at USM 38, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.9%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    2.6%−0.3
    38% to make
    Punt
    2.1%−0.8
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USM made the numbers' call on 5 of 6FAU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 12:31FAU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 9:09USM Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    30.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    30.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 8:54USM Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    44.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 4:39FAU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:08USM Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    53.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    52.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 11:08USM Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 3:53FAU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    27.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    27.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 3:39USM Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 4:55USM Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.1%−0.6
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.8%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
FAUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0071% → 71%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+1
28.8%
James Charles run for 1 yd to the FlAtl 25Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 25
-1
28.8%
Nick Tronti run for a loss of 1 yard to the FlAtl 24Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 24
+4
28.8%
Nick Tronti pass complete to BJ Alexander for 4 yds to the FlAtl 28Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 6
OWN 28
0
28.8%
Matt Hayball punt for 58 yds, downed at the SoMis 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 2FUMBLE
1 play · 6 yds · 0:0030% → 30%
Q1 12:46
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+6
29.8%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 6 yds to the SoMis 20 Frank Gore Jr. fumbled, forced by Ahman Ross, recovered by FlAtl Caliph BriceSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 3TD
1 play · 20 yds · 0:0071% → 71%
Q1 12:31
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+20
28.9%
Nick Tronti pass complete to Brandon Robinson for 20 yds for a TD, (Vladimir Rivas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 4INT
5 plays · 13 yds · 0:0029% → 29%
Q1 12:31
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
29.2%
Trey Lowe pass complete to Frank Gore Jr. for 6 yds to the SoMis 41Similar
Q1 12:31
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+2
29.3%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 2 yds to the SoMis 43Similar
Q1 12:31
3RD & 2
OWN 43
+5
29.3%
Trey Lowe run for 5 yds to the SoMis 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:31
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-6
29.3%
Trey Lowe pass intercepted Diashun Moss return for 6 yds to the FlAtl 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0071% → 71%
Q1 10:41
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
29.3%
James Charles run for 2 yds to the FlAtl 25Similar
Q1 10:41
2ND & 8
OWN 25
+6
29.3%
Nick Tronti run for 6 yds to the FlAtl 31Similar
Q1 10:41
3RD & 2
OWN 31
0
29.2%
Nick Tronti pass incomplete to James Charles, broken up by Natrone BrooksSimilar
Q1 10:41
4TH & 2
OWN 31
0
29.4%
Matt Hayball punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Natrone Brooks at the SoMis 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 6TD
1 play · 73 yds · 0:0032% → 32%
Q1 9:09
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+73
31.6%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 73 yds for a TD, (Briggs Bourgeois KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 7PUNT
9 plays · 30 yds · 2:0469% → 68%
Q1 9:09
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-4
31.4%
Nick Tronti pass complete to James Charles for a loss of 4 yards to the FlAtl 22Similar
Q1 9:09
2ND & 14
OWN 22
+5
31.5%
Nick Tronti pass complete to James Charles for 5 yds to the FlAtl 27Similar
Q1 9:09
3RD & 9
OWN 27
+27
31.6%
Nick Tronti pass complete to Brandon Robinson for 12 yds to the SoMis 39 for a 1ST down SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, personal foul (Dominic Quewon) to the SoMis 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:09
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+2
30.9%
Kelvin Dean Jr. run for 2 yds to the SoMis 44Similar
Q1 9:09
2ND & 8
OPP 44
0
30.9%
Nick Tronti pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:05
3RD & 8
OPP 44
0
31.7%
Nick Tronti pass incomplete to BJ Alexander, broken up by Camron HarrellSimilar
Q1 7:05
4TH & 8
OPP 44
0
32.3%
Matt Hayball punt for 44 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 8FG
13 plays · 60 yds · 5:1733% → 37%
Q1 6:51
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
32.7%
Kevin Perkins run for 2 yds to the SoMis 22Similar
Q1 6:51
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+20
32.7%
Trey Lowe pass complete to Tim Jones for 20 yds to the SoMis 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:51
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-2
33.3%
Kevin Perkins run for 8 yds to the 50 yard line SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the SoMis 40Similar
Q1 6:51
1ST & 12
OWN 40
-1
33.0%
Kevin Perkins run for a loss of 1 yard to the SoMis 39Similar
Q1 6:51
2ND & 13
OWN 39
+27
32.9%
Trey Lowe pass complete to Jason Brownlee for 27 yds to the FlAtl 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:51
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+3
33.8%
Trey Lowe run for 3 yds to the FlAtl 31Similar
Q1 6:51
2ND & 7
OPP 31
+3
33.8%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 3 yds to the FlAtl 28Similar
Q1 6:51
3RD & 4
OPP 28
+9
33.6%
Trey Lowe run for 9 yds to the FlAtl 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:51
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+4
33.8%
Kevin Perkins run for 4 yds to the FlAtl 15Similar
Q1 6:51
2ND & 6
OPP 15
0
33.8%
Trey Lowe pass incomplete to Tim JonesSimilar
Q1 6:51
3RD & 6
OPP 15
-5
33.6%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the FlAtl 20Similar
Q1 6:51
3RD & 11
OPP 20
0
33.5%
Trey Lowe pass incomplete to Jason Brownlee, broken up by Ashton McNealSimilar
Q1 1:34
4TH & 11
OPP 20
+38
36.7%
Briggs Bourgeois 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 9FG
14 plays · 48 yds · 5:1663% → 64%
Q1 1:34
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
36.6%
Kelvin Dean Jr. run for 1 yd to the FlAtl 31Similar
Q1 1:34
2ND & 9
OWN 31
+17
36.6%
Nick Tronti pass complete to Brandon Robinson for 17 yds to the FlAtl 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:34
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-1
35.5%
James Charles run for a loss of 1 yard to the FlAtl 47Similar
Q1 1:34
2ND & 11
OWN 47
+9
36.0%
James Charles run for 9 yds to the SoMis 44Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 44
+4
36.3%
Nick Tronti run for 4 yds to the SoMis 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+7
36.2%
James Charles run for 7 yds to the SoMis 33Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 33
-5
35.7%
FLA ATLANTIC Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the SoMis 38Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 38
0
36.2%
Nick Tronti pass incomplete to Brandon RobinsonSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 38
+10
36.4%
Nick Tronti pass complete to Brandon Robinson for 10 yds to the SoMis 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+3
35.7%
Nick Tronti run for 3 yds to the SoMis 25Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 25
+2
35.7%
Kelvin Dean Jr. run for 2 yds to the SoMis 23Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 23
+1
36.2%
Nick Tronti run for 1 yd to the SoMis 22Similar
Q2 11:18
4TH & 4
OPP 22
+40
36.4%
Vladimir Rivas 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 10TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:2439% → 49%
Q2 11:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
38.7%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 12 yds to the SoMis 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:18
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+12
39.3%
Trey Lowe pass complete to Antavious Willis for 12 yds to the SoMis 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:18
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
40.3%
Trey Lowe pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:18
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+9
40.0%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 9 yds to the FlAtl 42Similar
Q2 9:29
3RD & 1
OPP 42
+29
40.7%
Trey Lowe pass complete to Cole Cavallo for 29 yds to the FlAtl 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:54
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
48.9%
Trey Lowe run for 13 yds for a TD, (Briggs Bourgeois KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 11TD
9 plays · 77 yds · 4:1553% → 66%
Q2 8:54
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+8
46.8%
James Charles run for 8 yds to the FlAtl 31Similar
Q2 8:54
2ND & 2
OWN 31
+2
45.4%
Jordan Merrell run for 2 yds to the FlAtl 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:54
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+36
46.2%
Jordan Merrell run for 36 yds to the SoMis 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:54
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+6
43.4%
Javion Posey run for 6 yds to the SoMis 25Similar
Q2 8:54
2ND & 4
OPP 25
+3
43.1%
James Charles run for 3 yds to the SoMis 22Similar
Q2 8:54
3RD & 1
OPP 22
-5
44.3%
FLA ATLANTIC Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the SoMis 27Similar
Q2 8:54
3RD & 6
OPP 27
+15
44.4%
Javion Posey run for 2 yds to the SoMis 25 for a 1ST down SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, personal foul (13 Yards) to the SoMis 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:39
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
34.1%
James Charles run for 12 yds for a TD, (Vladimir Rivas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 12TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 4:3141% → 57%
Q2 4:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
41.1%
Kevin Perkins run for 2 yds to the SoMis 27Similar
Q2 4:39
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+11
41.2%
Trey Lowe pass complete to Jason Brownlee for 11 yds to the SoMis 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:39
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+9
42.3%
Kevin Perkins run for 9 yds to the SoMis 47Similar
Q2 4:39
2ND & 1
OWN 47
0
43.6%
Frank Gore Jr. run for no gain to the SoMis 47Similar
Q2 4:39
3RD & 1
OWN 47
+6
42.7%
Kevin Perkins run for 6 yds to the FlAtl 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:39
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+4
43.8%
Trey Lowe run for 4 yds to the FlAtl 43Similar
Q2 4:39
2ND & 6
OPP 43
+9
44.0%
Trey Lowe pass complete to Tim Jones for 9 yds to the FlAtl 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:39
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+11
44.5%
Trey Lowe pass complete to Tim Jones for 11 yds to the FlAtl 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:39
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-6
44.6%
Trey Lowe sacked by Ahman Ross for a loss of 6 yards to the FlAtl 29Similar
Q2 0:43
2ND & 16
OPP 29
+25
45.3%
Trey Lowe run for 25 yds to the FlAtl 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-1
46.8%
Kevin Perkins run for a loss of 1 yard to the FlAtl 5Similar
Q2 0:43
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
46.8%
Trey Lowe pass incomplete to Tim JonesSimilar
Q2 0:08
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
56.7%
Trey Lowe pass complete to Tim Jones for 5 yds for a TD, (Briggs Bourgeois KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 13END OF HALF
2 plays · 8 yds · 0:0046% → 46%
Q2 0:08
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+8
53.8%
James Charles run for 8 yds to the FlAtl 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 14TD
8 plays · 80 yds · 3:5256% → 75%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+16
55.8%
Trey Lowe pass complete to Antavious Willis for 16 yds to the SoMis 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
56.9%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 5 yds to the SoMis 41Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+1
58.1%
Trey Lowe run for 1 yd to the SoMis 42Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 42
-5
57.0%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, false start (Kevin Perkins) to the SoMis 37Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 37
+11
55.4%
Trey Lowe pass complete to Tim Jones for 11 yds to the SoMis 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+9
58.2%
Trey Lowe pass complete to Tim Jones for 9 yds to the FlAtl 43Similar
Q3 11:08
2ND & 1
OPP 43
+43
75.4%
Trey Lowe pass complete to Jason Brownlee for 43 yds for a TD, (Briggs Bourgeois KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 15PUNT
7 plays · 10 yds · 0:0030% → 28%
Q3 11:08
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+5
70.1%
James Charles run for 5 yds to the SoMis 43Similar
Q3 11:08
2ND & 5
OPP 43
+5
69.4%
James Charles run for 5 yds to the SoMis 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:08
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
70.1%
Nick Tronti pass incomplete to James CharlesSimilar
Q3 11:08
2ND & 10
OPP 38
0
70.1%
Nick Tronti pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:08
3RD & 10
OPP 38
0
71.1%
Nick Tronti pass incomplete to TJ Chase, broken up by Malik ShortsSimilar
Q3 11:08
4TH & 10
OPP 38
0
72.2%
Matt Hayball punt for 35 yds, downed at the SoMis 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 22 yds · 0:0076% → 75%
Q3 9:39
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+5
76.4%
Kevin Perkins run for 5 yds to the SoMis 8Similar
Q3 9:39
2ND & 5
OWN 8
+9
76.4%
Kevin Perkins run for 9 yds to the SoMis 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:39
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+1
76.8%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 1 yd to the SoMis 18Similar
Q3 9:39
2ND & 9
OWN 18
+6
76.7%
Trey Lowe run for 6 yds to the SoMis 24Similar
Q3 9:39
3RD & 3
OWN 24
+1
76.0%
Trey Lowe run for 1 yd to the SoMis 25Similar
Q3 9:39
4TH & 2
OWN 25
0
75.0%
Griffin Fleming punt for 36 yds, fair catch by LaJohntay Wester at the FlAtl 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 17TD
6 plays · 61 yds · 2:2824% → 40%
Q3 6:21
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+28
76.3%
Willie Wright run for 13 yds to the SOUMISS 48 for a 1ST down SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, personal foul (Josh Ratcliff) to the SoMis 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:21
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+10
73.9%
Nick Tronti pass complete to Willie Wright for 10 yds to the SoMis 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:21
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+16
73.3%
Kelvin Dean Jr. run for 16 yds to the SoMis 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-2
73.3%
Kelvin Dean Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the SoMis 9Similar
Q3 6:21
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+8
73.3%
James Charles run for 8 yds to the SoMis 1Similar
Q3 3:53
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
60.4%
James Charles run for 1 yd for a TD, (Vladimir Rivas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · -6 yds · 0:0018% → 16%
Q3 3:39
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
82.3%
Nick Tronti pass incomplete to Kelvin Dean Jr.Similar
Q3 3:39
2ND & 10
OWN 15
-2
82.5%
Nick Tronti run for a loss of 2 yards to the FlAtl 13Similar
Q3 3:39
3RD & 12
OWN 13
-4
82.8%
Nick Tronti sacked by Michael Pleas Jr. for a loss of 4 yards to the FlAtl 9Similar
Q3 3:39
4TH & 16
OWN 9
0
83.7%
Matt Hayball punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Natrone Brooks at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 20FUMBLE TD
3 plays · -7 yds · 1:3188% → 77%
Q3 2:25
1ST & 10
50
+1
88.4%
Dee Baker run for 1 yd to the FlAtl 49Similar
Q3 2:25
2ND & 9
OPP 49
+3
88.3%
Darius Maberry run for 3 yds to the FlAtl 46Similar
Q3 0:54
3RD & 6
OPP 46
+43
77.0%
Trey Lowe run for a loss of 6 yards Trey Lowe fumbled, recovered by FlAtl Armani-Eli Adams , return for 43 yds, (Vladimir Rivas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · -6 yds · 0:5476% → 75%
Q3 0:54
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
75.7%
Kevin Perkins run for no gain to the SoMis 30Similar
Q3 0:54
2ND & 10
OWN 30
-6
75.4%
Trey Lowe sacked by Leighton McCarthy for a loss of 6 yards to the SoMis 24Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 16
OWN 24
0
76.1%
Trey Lowe pass incomplete to Jason BrownleeSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 16
OWN 24
0
74.9%
Griffin Fleming punt for 40 yds, fair catch by LaJohntay Wester at the FlAtl 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 22PUNT
9 plays · 15 yds · 0:0031% → 29%
Q4 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
69.0%
James Charles run for 6 yds to the FlAtl 42Similar
Q4 14:47
2ND & 4
OWN 42
+3
67.1%
James Charles run for 3 yds to the FlAtl 45Similar
Q4 14:47
3RD & 1
OWN 45
-5
67.3%
CHARLES, James rush up middle for no gain to the FAU45 (MAPLES, Hayes), PENALTY FAU illegal formation 5 yards to the FAU40, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:47
3RD & 6
OWN 40
+13
68.9%
Nick Tronti pass complete to Brandon Robinson for 13 yds to the SoMis 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:47
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-15
65.8%
TRONTI, Nick rush scramble for no gain to the USM47 (MAPLES, Hayes), PENALTY FAU illegal cut (PETERSON, Logan) 15 yards to the FAU38, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:47
1ST & 25
OWN 38
+2
69.8%
James Charles run for 2 yds to the FlAtl 40Similar
Q4 14:47
2ND & 23
OWN 40
0
70.1%
Javion Posey pass incomplete to Kelvin Dean Jr.Similar
Q4 14:47
3RD & 23
OWN 40
+11
71.0%
Nick Tronti pass complete to James Charles for 11 yds to the SoMis 49Similar
Q4 14:47
4TH & 12
OPP 49
0
71.4%
Matt Hayball punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Natrone Brooks at the SoMis 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 23TD
10 plays · 90 yds · 5:2382% → 97%
Q4 10:18
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+1
81.9%
Kevin Perkins run for 1 yd to the SoMis 11Similar
Q4 10:18
2ND & 9
OWN 11
+3
81.7%
Trey Lowe run for 3 yds to the SoMis 14Similar
Q4 10:18
3RD & 6
OWN 14
+16
80.6%
Trey Lowe run for 16 yds to the SoMis 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:18
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+41
82.3%
Darius Maberry run for 41 yds to the FlAtl 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:18
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+15
85.0%
Kevin Perkins run for 15 yds to the FlAtl 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:02
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+9
87.8%
Kevin Perkins run for 9 yds to the FlAtl 5Similar
Q4 7:02
2ND & 1
OPP 5
+3
87.8%
Darius Maberry run for 3 yds to the FlAtl 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-1
87.8%
Darius Maberry run for a loss of 1 yard to the FlAtl 3Similar
Q4 4:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
96.7%
Kevin Perkins run for 3 yds for a TD, (Briggs Bourgeois KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 24DOWNS
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:008% → 7%
Q4 4:55
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
92.5%
Nick Tronti pass complete to Jordan Merrell for 5 yds to the FlAtl 35Similar
Q4 4:55
2ND & 5
OWN 35
0
92.1%
Nick Tronti pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:55
3RD & 5
OWN 35
0
92.4%
Nick Tronti pass incomplete to Willie Taggart Jr.Similar
Q4 4:55
4TH & 5
OWN 35
0
92.7%
Nick Tronti pass incomplete, broken up by Ky'el HembySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 25DOWNS
7 plays · 9 yds · 0:5497% → 98%
Q4 4:02
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+8
96.9%
Demarcus Jones run for 8 yds to the FlAtl 27Similar
Q4 4:02
2ND & 2
OPP 27
-1
96.9%
Demarcus Jones run for a loss of 1 yard to the FlAtl 28Similar
Q4 3:15
3RD & 3
OPP 28
-5
97.9%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, false start (Arvin Fletcher) to the FlAtl 33Similar
Q4 3:15
3RD & 8
OPP 33
+1
97.8%
Trey Lowe run for 1 yd to the FlAtl 32Similar
Q4 3:08
4TH & 7
OPP 32
+6
98.1%
Trey Lowe run for 6 yds to the FlAtl 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 26INT
15 plays · 44 yds · 2:133% → 3%
Q4 2:59
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-10
97.3%
TRONTI, Nick rush scramble for 5 yards to the FAU31, out-of-bounds, PENALTY FAU holding (CHARLES, James) 10 yards to the FAU16, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:59
1ST & 20
OWN 16
+3
97.4%
Nick Tronti pass complete to Jordan Merrell for 3 yds to the FlAtl 19Similar
Q4 2:59
2ND & 17
OWN 19
+12
97.4%
Nick Tronti pass complete to BJ Alexander for 12 yds to the FlAtl 31Similar
Q4 2:59
3RD & 5
OWN 31
0
97.2%
Nick Tronti run for no gain to the FlAtl 31Similar
Q4 2:59
4TH & 5
OWN 31
+8
97.4%
Nick Tronti pass complete to Willie Wright for 8 yds to the FlAtl 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:59
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
97.1%
Nick Tronti pass complete to James Charles for 4 yds to the FlAtl 43Similar
Q4 2:59
2ND & 6
OWN 43
+19
97.0%
Nick Tronti pass complete to Willie Taggart Jr. for 19 yds to the SoMis 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:59
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
96.7%
Nick Tronti pass incomplete to Brandon RobinsonSimilar
Q4 2:59
2ND & 10
OPP 38
0
96.7%
Nick Tronti pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:59
3RD & 10
OPP 38
0
96.8%
Nick Tronti pass incomplete to Willie Taggart Jr.Similar
Q4 0:46
4TH & 10
OPP 38
+13
97.3%
Nick Tronti pass complete to Willie Wright for 13 yds to the SoMis 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:46
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-5
96.6%
FLA ATLANTIC Penalty, false start (Jordan Merrell) to the SoMis 30Similar
Q4 0:46
1ST & 15
OPP 30
0
97.0%
Nick Tronti pass incomplete to Willie Taggart Jr., broken up by Camron HarrellSimilar
Q4 0:46
2ND & 15
OPP 30
0
97.0%
Nick Tronti pass intercepted, touchback. Ky'el Hemby return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 27END OF GAME
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 0:27
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
99.2%
Team run for a loss of 1 yard to the SoMis 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 3:39
Aaron Shahriari kickoff for 65 yds , Camron Harrell return for 100 yds for a TD, (Briggs Bourgeois KICK)
+21.3
TD · Q3 11:08
Trey Lowe pass complete to Jason Brownlee for 43 yds for a TD, (Briggs Bourgeois KICK)
+17.2
TD · Q3 3:53
James Charles run for 1 yd for a TD, (Vladimir Rivas KICK)
-12.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com