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Win probability · MRSH
modelMRSH aheadRICE aheadconfidence bandkey playMRSH scoreRICE score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 15:00 · Daton Montiel punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Jordan Myers at the Rice 13
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- FG · Q2 5:49: Collin Riccitelli 39 yd FG GOOD — RICE win probability +7.0 pts (now 25%) (top driver: RICE has the ball).
- FG · Q3 9:24: Collin Riccitelli 40 yd FG GOOD — RICE win probability +10.7 pts (now 52%) (top driver: RICE has the ball).
- TD · Q3 7:50: Grant Wells pass intercepted for a TD Naeem Smith return for 36 yds for a TD (Collin Riccitelli KICK) — RICE win probability +24.5 pts (now 72%) (top driver: MRSH has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q3 7:50: Brenden Knox run for no gain to the Marsh 37 — MRSH win probability +8.1 pts (now 30%) (top driver: MRSH has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q3 6:59: Khalan Griffin run for 3 yds to the Marsh 43 — RICE win probability +12.4 pts (now 81%) (top driver: RICE has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
MRSH made the numbers' call on 2 of 5RICE made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
- Q1 15:00MRSH 4th & 10 at RICE 27, tiedClose callWent for it · 93.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call93.5%−0.129% to convertField goal93.6%62% to makePunt93.2%−0.3average punt
- Q1 11:27RICE 4th & 5 at RICE 23, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 7.2% before the snapGo for it7.2%−0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call7.2%average punt
- Q1 3:14RICE 4th & 1 at MRSH 15, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 10.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call10.0%71% to convertField goal9.8%−0.283% to makePunt9.1%−0.9average punt
- Q2 15:00MRSH 4th & 8 at RICE 44, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.5% before the snapGo for it86.5%−<0.134% to convertField goal86.2%−0.327% to makePuntTheir call86.6%average punt
- Q2 5:49RICE 4th & 4 at MRSH 21, up 7Close callKicked a field goal · 22.8% before the snapGo for it22.6%47% to convertField goalTheir call22.4%−0.274% to makePunt18.9%−3.7average punt
- Q3 15:00RICE 4th & 9 at RICE 46, up 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.2% before the snapGo for it32.1%−0.932% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call33.0%average punt
- Q3 13:05MRSH 4th & 13 at MRSH 8, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.4% before the snapGo for it60.3%−1.518% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call61.9%average punt
- Q3 9:24RICE 4th & 5 at MRSH 22, up 10Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 41.8% before the snapGo for it40.8%−0.340% to convertField goalTheir call41.1%72% to makePunt32.9%−8.3average punt
- Q3 6:59RICE 4th & 6 at MRSH 42, up 20Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsPunted · 80.3% before the snapGo for it81.7%40% to convertField goal78.9%−2.830% to makePuntTheir call80.6%−1.1average punt
- Q4 15:00MRSH 4th & 16 at RICE 27, down 20Numbers favored field goal by 3.4 ptsWent for it · 10.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call7.4%−3.415% to convertField goal10.8%62% to makePunt2.3%−8.5average punt
- Q4 11:54RICE 4th & 13 at RICE 39, up 20Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.6% before the snapGo for it92.4%−1.720% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call94.2%average punt
- Q4 3:40MRSH 4th & 6 at RICE 17, down 20Close callWent for it · 1.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call1.6%−1.038% to convertField goal2.6%80% to makePunt1.0%−1.5average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
RICE made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
- Q1 1:06RICE Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call12.4%97% to makeGo for two12.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 7:50RICE Touchdown, up 19 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call69.0%97% to makeGo for two68.7%−0.345% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartMRSHDrive 1DOWNS11 plays · 57 yds · 0:0093% → 93%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
92.8%
Grant Wells pass complete to Xavier Gaines for 12 yds to the Marsh 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+22
92.8%
Grant Wells pass complete to Xavier Gaines for 22 yds to the Rice 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 27
0
92.8%
Grant Wells pass complete to Talik Keaton for no gain to the Rice 27Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 10
OPP 27
+9
92.8%
Grant Wells pass complete to Corey Gammage for 9 yds to the Rice 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 2PUNT4 plays · 5 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q1 11:27
3RD & 3
OWN 25
-2
91.9%
JoVoni Johnson sacked by Koby Cumberlander and Eli Neal for a loss of 2 yards to the Rice 23Similar
Q1 11:27
4TH & 5
OWN 23
-3
91.9%
Charlie Mendes punt for 48 yds , Talik Keaton returns for a loss of 3 yards to the Marsh 20 MARSHALL Penalty, illegal block (10 Yards) to the Marsh 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 3INT4 plays · 12 yds · 0:0091% → 91%
Q1 9:11
2ND & 10
OWN 16
+13
91.2%
Grant Wells pass complete to Willie Johnson for 13 yds to the Marsh 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:11
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-1
91.3%
Grant Wells pass complete to Talik Keaton for a loss of 1 yard to the Marsh 28Similar
Q1 9:11
2ND & 11
OWN 28
-21
91.2%
Grant Wells pass intercepted Treshawn Chamberlain return for 21 yds to the Marsh 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 4TD13 plays · 47 yds · 6:489% → 15%
Q1 7:54
3RD & 2
OPP 16
-5
90.6%
MYERS, Jordan rush for 3 yards to the MAR13 (DRAYTON, B.;NEAL, Eli), PENALTY RICE false start (STONE, Charlie) 5 yards to the MAR21, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:54
3RD & 7
OPP 21
+6
90.6%
JoVoni Johnson pass complete to Jake Bailey for 6 yds to the Marsh 15Similar
Q1 3:14
2ND & 12
OPP 15
+5
88.7%
MARSHALL Penalty, Defensive offside (Jamare Edwards) to the Marsh 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 5PUNT13 plays · 46 yds · 1:0686% → 86%
Q1 1:06
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
86.2%
Grant Wells pass complete to Talik Keaton for 4 yds to the Marsh 24Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 27
+4
85.5%
Grant Wells pass complete to Brenden Knox for 4 yds to the Marsh 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 33
+9
85.4%
Grant Wells pass complete to Corey Gammage for 9 yds to the Marsh 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+12
86.0%
Grant Wells pass complete to Talik Keaton for 12 yds to the Rice 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 8
OPP 44
0
85.6%
Daton Montiel punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Jordan Myers at the Rice 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 6FG11 plays · 66 yds · 5:2117% → 25%
Q2 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+13
82.9%
JoVoni Johnson pass complete to Jake Bailey for 13 yds to the Rice 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:10
2ND & 8
OWN 28
+21
82.6%
JoVoni Johnson pass complete to Andrew Mason for 6 yds to the Rice 34 for a 1ST down MARSHALL Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Steven Gilmore) to the Rice 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:10
2ND & 3
OPP 44
0
81.6%
JoVoni Johnson pass incomplete to Andrew Mason, broken up by Nazeeh JohnsonSimilar
Q2 11:10
4TH & 1
OPP 42
+15
82.2%
MENDES, Charlie pass incomplete to BAILEY, Jake (MCCLAIN-SAPP, J), PENALTY MAR pass interference (MCCLAIN-SAPP, J) 15 yards to the MAR27, 1ST DOWN RICE, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:10
3RD & 12
OPP 29
+8
81.8%
JoVoni Johnson pass complete to Jake Bailey for 8 yds to the Marsh 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 7INT7 plays · 20 yds · 0:0075% → 75%
Q2 5:49
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+11
75.1%
Grant Wells pass complete to Talik Keaton for 11 yds to the Marsh 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:49
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+9
75.6%
Grant Wells pass complete to Devin Miller for 9 yds Devin Miller fumbled,Similar
Q2 5:49
2ND & 10
OPP 49
-4
76.1%
Grant Wells sacked by Treshawn Chamberlain and De'Braylon Carroll for a loss of 4 yards to the Marsh 47Similar
Q2 5:49
3RD & 14
OWN 47
0
74.8%
Grant Wells pass intercepted Josh Pearcy return for no gain to the Rice 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 8MISSED FG14 plays · 51 yds · 2:5930% → 40%
Q2 1:42
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+9
66.7%
JoVoni Johnson pass complete to Jordan Myers for 9 yds to the Marsh 37Similar
Q2 1:42
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+15
66.2%
JoVoni Johnson pass incomplete to Jake Bailey for a 1ST down MARSHALL Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Darius Hodge) to the Marsh 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:42
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+6
66.1%
JoVoni Johnson pass complete to Jake Bailey for 6 yds to the Marsh 12Similar
Q2 1:42
2ND & 4
OPP 12
-7
66.1%
JoVoni Johnson sacked by Tavante Beckett for a loss of 7 yards to the Marsh 19Similar
Q2 0:07
3RD & 11
OPP 19
+14
63.5%
JoVoni Johnson pass complete to Andrew Mason for 14 yds to the Marsh 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 9PUNT6 plays · 11 yds · 0:0035% → 34%
MRSHDrive 10PUNT5 plays · -3 yds · 0:0062% → 60%
Q3 13:05
4TH & 13
OWN 8
+16
59.5%
Daton Montiel punt for 35 yds , Jake Bailey returns for 16 yds to the Marsh 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 11FG4 plays · 5 yds · 2:2142% → 52%
Q3 11:45
2ND & 8
OPP 25
+1
57.9%
Khalan Griffin run for 1 yd to the Marsh 23 Khalan Griffin fumbled, forced by Tavante Beckett, recovered by Rice Khalan GriffinSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 12INT TD4 plays · -5 yds · 1:3453% → 28%
MRSHDrive 13INT4 plays · 16 yds · 0:0030% → 31%
Q3 7:50
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-14
31.3%
Grant Wells pass intercepted Blaze Alldredge return for 14 yds to the Marsh 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 14PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0081% → 80%
Q3 6:59
4TH & 1
OPP 37
-5
20.5%
MYERS, Jordan rush for 2 yards to the MAR35 (DRAYTON, B.;BECKETT, T.), PENALTY RICE illegal motion (STONE, Charlie) 5 yards to the MAR42, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:59
4TH & 6
OPP 42
0
20.4%
Charlie Mendes punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Talik Keaton at the Marsh 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 15INT3 plays · 0 yds · 0:0015% → 15%
RICEDrive 16FUMBLE5 plays · 23 yds · 0:0091% → 91%
MRSHDrive 17DOWNS11 plays · 60 yds · 0:4210% → 10%
Q3 0:42
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+19
10.4%
Grant Wells pass complete to Willie Johnson for 19 yds to the Marsh 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 34
+13
10.6%
Grant Wells pass complete to Talik Keaton for 13 yds to the Rice 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 16
-11
10.7%
Grant Wells sacked by De'Braylon Carroll for a loss of 11 yards to the Rice 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 18PUNT10 plays · 19 yds · 0:0095% → 94%
MRSHDrive 19DOWNS12 plays · 57 yds · 2:232% → 1%
Q4 6:03
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+11
2.0%
Grant Wells pass complete to Corey Gammage for 11 yds to the Marsh 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:03
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
2.0%
WELLS, Grant pass complete to GAMMAGE, Corey for 6 yards to the MAR43 (BIRD, Andrew), PENALTY RICE offside (GRAMMER, G.) 5 yards to the MAR42, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 6:03
1ST & 5
OWN 42
+9
2.1%
Grant Wells pass complete to Talik Keaton for 9 yds to the Rice 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:03
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
2.1%
Grant Wells pass complete to Corey Gammage for 5 yds to the Rice 44Similar
Q4 6:03
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+15
2.2%
WELLS, Grant pass incomplete to GAINES, Xavier, QB hurry by ENECHUKWU, I., PENALTY RICE unsportsmanlike conduct (ENECHUKWU, I.) 15 yards to the RICE21, 1ST DOWN MAR, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 6:03
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+6
2.4%
Grant Wells pass complete to Xavier Gaines for 6 yds to the Rice 15Similar
Q4 3:40
4TH & 6
OPP 17
0
1.4%
Grant Wells pass incomplete to Brenden Knox, broken up by Elijah GarciaSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 20Uncategorized7 plays · 19 yds · 0:1299% → 99%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 7:50
Grant Wells pass intercepted for a TD Naeem Smith return for 36 yds for a TD (Collin Riccitelli KICK)
-24.5
KEY PLAY · Q3 6:59
Khalan Griffin run for 3 yds to the Marsh 43
-12.4
FG · Q3 9:24
Collin Riccitelli 40 yd FG GOOD
-10.7