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AUB

Auburn 19 at Northwestern 35

NU
2020 · Vrbo Citrus Bowl · Jan 1, 2021 · Camping World Stadium
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Win probability · NU
modelNU aheadAUB aheadconfidence bandkey playNU scoreAUB score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 10:42 · Derek Adams punt for 45 yds , Eli Stove returns for 7 yds to the Aub 25
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+32.5+16.30−16.3−32.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 116Home team on offense+9.3Pregame prior+4.0Score differential+2.3Garbage-time factor+3.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.8Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 3:14: Peyton Ramsey pass complete to John Raine for 6 yds for a TD (Charlie Kuhbander KICK) — NU win probability +4.7 pts (now 70%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 0:17: Anders Carlson 27 yd FG GOOD — AUB win probability +2.9 pts (now 28%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 8:32: Bo Nix pass complete to Elijah Canion for 57 yds for a TD (Anders Carlson KICK) — AUB win probability +11.6 pts (now 39%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  4. TD · Q3 1:34: Peyton Ramsey run for 30 yds for a TD (Charlie Kuhbander KICK) — NU win probability +16.2 pts (now 85%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 12:13: Cam Porter run for 1 yd for a TD (Charlie Kuhbander KICK) — NU win probability +5.9 pts (now 95%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NU made the numbers' call on 7 of 9AUB made the numbers' call on 6 of 10
  1. Q1 10:52AUB 4th & 2 at AUB 33, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.7%−<0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:34NU 4th & 13 at NU 40, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.4%−0.3
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.8%
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:35AUB 4th & 3 at AUB 27, down 7
    Close callPunted · 35.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.3%−<0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:50NU 4th & 8 at AUB 45, up 7
    Close callWent for it · 65.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    65.3%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    65.0%−0.5
    25% to make
    Punt
    65.4%
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:04AUB 4th & 5 at NU 34, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 29.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    29.2%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    28.8%−0.4
    47% to make
    Punt
    28.2%−1.0
    average punt
  6. Q2 13:50NU 4th & 1 at NU 43, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 73.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    74.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    72.6%−1.6
    average punt
  7. Q2 11:41NU 4th & 3 at AUB 47, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 74.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    75.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    74.7%−0.8
    average punt
  8. Q2 10:50AUB 4th & 7 at midfield, down 14
    Close callPunted · 26.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.2%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  9. Q2 8:39NU 4th & 10 at NU 28, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.5%−1.5
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.0%
    average punt
  10. Q2 6:03AUB 4th & 15 at NU 33, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 22.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.7%−1.1
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    22.8%
    49% to make
    Punt
    22.0%−0.8
    average punt
  11. Q2 4:02NU 4th & 2 at NU 46, up 11
    Close callPunted · 74.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.5%−0.7
    average punt
  12. Q2 0:17AUB 4th & 10 at NU 10, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 23.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.7%−1.2
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    23.9%
    88% to make
    Punt
    19.6%−4.3
    average punt
  13. Q3 13:55AUB 4th & 3 at AUB 32, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.2%−0.4
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.7%
    average punt
  14. Q3 10:42NU 4th & 6 at NU 37, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.4%−0.6
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.0%
    average punt
  15. Q3 5:44NU 4th & 2 at AUB 36, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 65.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    65.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    62.7%−3.2
    42% to make
    Punt
    62.0%−3.9
    average punt
  16. Q3 3:44AUB 4th & 3 at AUB 43, down 1
    Close callPunted · 37.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.6%−0.5
    average punt
  17. Q4 14:29AUB 4th & 1 at midfield, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 18.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    19.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    14.3%−4.8
    average punt
  18. Q4 4:55AUB 4th & 4 at NU 24, down 22
    Close callWent for it · 0.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.8%−0.2
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    0.9%
    68% to make
    Punt
    0.3%−0.6
    average punt
  19. Q4 1:53NU 4th & 7 at AUB 33, up 16
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.0%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    98.0%−<0.1
    49% to make
    Punt
    97.8%−0.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5AUB made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 11:32NU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 3:14NU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 8:32AUB Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    38.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    38.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 1:34NU Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 12:13NU Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.3%−0.3
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 7:49NU Touchdown, up 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 4:41AUB Touchdown, down 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    3.0%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    3.0%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NUDrive 1TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:0660% → 61%
Q1 14:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
59.6%
Cam Porter run for 2 yds to the Nwest 27Similar
Q1 14:22
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+10
59.6%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to John Raine for 10 yds to the Nwest 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:55
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
59.6%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to John Raine for 5 yds to the Nwest 42Similar
Q1 13:30
2ND & 5
OWN 42
+5
59.7%
Riley Lees run for 5 yds to the Nwest 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:05
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
59.8%
Cam Porter run for no gain to the Nwest 47Similar
Q1 12:40
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+2
59.8%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Evan Hull for 2 yds to the Nwest 49Similar
Q1 12:10
3RD & 8
OWN 49
+14
59.7%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Riley Lees for 14 yds to the Aub 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:55
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+2
60.0%
Cam Porter run for 2 yds to the Aub 35Similar
Q1 11:32
2ND & 8
OPP 35
+35
61.3%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Ramaud Chiaokhiao-Bowman for 35 yds for a TD (Charlie Kuhbander KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:3839% → 39%
Q1 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
60.8%
Bo Nix pass incomplete to Seth WilliamsSimilar
Q1 11:15
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+8
60.9%
Bo Nix pass complete to Eli Stove for 8 yds to the Aub 33Similar
Q1 11:00
3RD & 2
OWN 33
0
60.9%
Bo Nix pass incomplete to Shaun ShiversSimilar
Q1 10:52
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
61.1%
Oscar Chapman punt for 67 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 20 yds · 0:5661% → 61%
Q1 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+23
61.3%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Wayne Dennis Jr. for 23 yds to the Nwest 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:10
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-3
61.8%
Peyton Ramsey run for a loss of 3 yards to the Nwest 40Similar
Q1 9:52
2ND & 13
OWN 40
0
61.7%
Peyton Ramsey pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:42
3RD & 13
OWN 40
0
61.6%
Peyton Ramsey pass incomplete to Ramaud Chiaokhiao-BowmanSimilar
Q1 9:34
4TH & 13
OWN 40
0
61.4%
Derek Adams punt for 60 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:5939% → 37%
Q1 9:34
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-5
61.4%
AUBURN Penalty, False Start (Alec Jackson) to the Aub 15Similar
Q1 9:10
1ST & 15
OWN 15
+3
61.8%
Shaun Shivers run for 3 yds to the Aub 18Similar
Q1 8:50
2ND & 12
OWN 18
+6
61.8%
Bo Nix run for 6 yds to the Aub 24Similar
Q1 8:00
3RD & 6
OWN 24
+3
62.4%
Bo Nix pass complete to Eli Stove for 3 yds to the Aub 27Similar
Q1 7:35
4TH & 3
OWN 27
0
62.6%
Oscar Chapman punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Riley Lees at the Nwest 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 5TD
10 plays · 68 yds · 3:5363% → 70%
Q1 7:07
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
62.6%
Cam Porter run for 2 yds to the Nwest 34Similar
Q1 6:35
2ND & 8
OWN 34
+19
62.8%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Ramaud Chiaokhiao-Bowman for 19 yds to the Aub 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:25
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-4
63.5%
Cam Porter run for a loss of 4 yards to the Nwest 49Similar
Q1 5:58
2ND & 14
OWN 49
0
63.2%
Peyton Ramsey pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:35
3RD & 14
OWN 49
+6
63.0%
Peyton Ramsey run for 6 yds to the Aub 45Similar
Q1 4:50
4TH & 8
OPP 45
+19
63.2%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Riley Lees for 19 yds to the Aub 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+9
64.7%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Raymond Niro III for 9 yds to the Aub 17Similar
Q1 3:50
2ND & 1
OPP 17
+10
64.8%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Cam Porter for 10 yds to the Aub 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+1
65.0%
Cam Porter run for 1 yd to the Aub 6Similar
Q1 3:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
69.7%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to John Raine for 6 yds for a TD (Charlie Kuhbander KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 6DOWNS
10 plays · 41 yds · 2:4632% → 31%
Q1 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
68.3%
D.J. Williams run for 5 yds to the Aub 30Similar
Q1 2:37
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+20
67.6%
Bo Nix pass complete to Elijah Canion for 20 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:20
1ST & 10
50
+6
67.3%
Bo Nix run for 6 yds to the Nwest 44Similar
Q1 1:35
2ND & 4
OPP 44
+5
67.5%
Bo Nix pass complete to D.J. Williams for 5 yds to the Nwest 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:33
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-15
67.8%
Nix, Bo pass incomplete, PENALTY AUBURN pass interference (Canion, Elijah) 15 yards to the AUBURN46, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 1:12
1ST & 25
OWN 46
+1
68.5%
Shaun Shivers run for 1 yd to the Aub 47Similar
Q1 0:54
2ND & 24
OWN 47
0
68.8%
Bo Nix pass incomplete to Brandon FrazierSimilar
Q1 0:30
3RD & 24
OWN 47
+19
69.2%
Bo Nix pass complete to Kobe Hudson for 19 yds to the Nwest 34Similar
Q1 0:04
4TH & 5
OPP 34
0
69.1%
Bo Nix pass incomplete to Elijah CanionSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 7DOWNS
8 plays · 19 yds · 3:1971% → 73%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+7
71.1%
Cam Porter run for 7 yds to the Nwest 41Similar
Q2 14:40
2ND & 3
OWN 41
+1
72.0%
Cam Porter run for 1 yd to the Nwest 42Similar
Q2 14:15
3RD & 2
OWN 42
+1
71.8%
Cam Porter run for 1 yd to the Nwest 43Similar
Q2 13:50
4TH & 1
OWN 43
+3
71.6%
Cam Porter run for 3 yds to the Nwest 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-6
73.1%
Cam Porter run for a loss of 6 yards to the Nwest 40Similar
Q2 12:40
2ND & 16
OWN 40
+13
73.0%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Bryce Kirtz for 13 yds to the Aub 47Similar
Q2 12:10
3RD & 3
OPP 47
0
73.4%
Cam Porter run for no gain to the Aub 47Similar
Q2 11:41
4TH & 3
OPP 47
0
73.1%
Peyton Ramsey pass incomplete to John RaineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:2029% → 28%
Q2 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
71.0%
D.J. Williams run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 11:03
2ND & 7
50
0
70.8%
Bo Nix pass incomplete to Seth WilliamsSimilar
Q2 10:57
3RD & 7
50
0
71.4%
Bo Nix pass incomplete to Elijah CanionSimilar
Q2 10:50
4TH & 7
50
0
72.1%
Oscar Chapman punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Riley Lees at the Nwest 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 9PUNT
8 plays · 14 yds · 2:0174% → 74%
Q2 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+1
73.9%
Peyton Ramsey run for 1 yd to the Nwest 15Similar
Q2 10:10
2ND & 9
OWN 15
+8
74.1%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Evan Hull for 8 yds to the Nwest 23Similar
Q2 9:56
3RD & 1
OWN 23
+5
73.7%
AUBURN Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Nwest 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+4
74.7%
Evan Hull run for 4 yds to the Nwest 32Similar
Q2 9:00
2ND & 6
OWN 32
+1
75.1%
Cam Porter run for 1 yd to the Nwest 33Similar
Q2 8:47
3RD & 5
OWN 33
0
74.6%
Peyton Ramsey pass incomplete to John RaineSimilar
Q2 8:47
4TH & 5
OWN 33
-5
74.1%
NORTHWESTERN Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Nwest 28Similar
Q2 8:39
4TH & 10
OWN 28
+25
73.9%
Derek Adams punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Eli Stove at the AUBURN 32 for a 1ST down NORTHWESTERN Penalty, Kick Catching Interference (15 Yards) to the Aub 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 10FG
8 plays · 20 yds · 2:1227% → 28%
Q2 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
72.9%
Shaun Shivers run for 2 yds to the Aub 49Similar
Q2 8:00
2ND & 8
OWN 49
+11
73.0%
Bo Nix pass complete to Seth Williams for 11 yds to the Nwest 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:35
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+8
73.2%
Bo Nix pass complete to John Samuel Shenker for 8 yds to the Nwest 32Similar
Q2 7:22
2ND & 2
OPP 32
+4
72.2%
Bo Nix pass complete to Ze'Vian Capers for 4 yds to the Nwest 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:59
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+1
72.4%
Shaun Shivers run for 1 yd to the Nwest 27Similar
Q2 6:52
2ND & 9
OPP 27
0
72.8%
Bo Nix pass incomplete to Shaun ShiversSimilar
Q2 6:45
3RD & 9
OPP 27
-6
73.7%
Bo Nix pass complete to Shaun Shivers for a loss of 6 yards to the Nwest 33Similar
Q2 6:03
4TH & 15
OPP 33
+50
72.4%
Anders Carlson 50 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 11PUNT
7 plays · 21 yds · 1:5373% → 73%
Q2 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
72.6%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Cam Porter for 13 yds to the Nwest 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:42
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
73.5%
Peyton Ramsey pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:30
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+1
73.3%
Peyton Ramsey run for 1 yd to the Nwest 39Similar
Q2 5:15
3RD & 9
OWN 39
+7
72.6%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Bryce Kirtz for 7 yds to the Nwest 46Similar
Q2 4:02
4TH & 2
OWN 46
0
72.9%
Derek Adams punt for 36 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Aub 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 12FG
21 plays · 72 yds · 3:2327% → 28%
Q2 3:40
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+7
73.3%
Bo Nix pass complete to Seth Williams for 7 yds to the Aub 25Similar
Q2 3:15
2ND & 3
OWN 25
+8
72.9%
Bo Nix run for 8 yds to the Aub 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+7
73.0%
Bo Nix pass complete to Brandon Frazier for 7 yds to the Aub 40Similar
Q2 2:30
2ND & 3
OWN 40
+5
72.7%
Bo Nix run for 5 yds to the Aub 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:10
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+7
72.9%
Bo Nix pass complete to John Samuel Shenker for 7 yds to the Nwest 48Similar
Q2 1:50
2ND & 3
OPP 48
+3
71.6%
D.J. Williams run for 3 yds to the Nwest 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:30
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
72.1%
Bo Nix pass incomplete to Seth WilliamsSimilar
Q2 1:26
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+13
72.6%
Bo Nix pass complete to Shedrick Jackson for 13 yds to the Nwest 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:21
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+15
71.0%
Nix, Bo pass incomplete to Canion, Elijah, PENALTY NORTHWSTRN pass interference 15 yards to the NORTHWSTRN17, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN AUBURN.Similar
Q2 0:58
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+1
70.7%
Bo Nix run for 1 yd to the Nwest 16Similar
Q2 0:44
2ND & 9
OPP 16
+4
72.8%
Bo Nix run for 4 yds to the Nwest 12Similar
Q2 0:44
3RD & 5
OPP 12
-5
73.9%
AUBURN Penalty, False Start (Alec Jackson) to the Nwest 17Similar
Q2 0:37
3RD & 10
OPP 17
+12
74.7%
Bo Nix pass complete to Eli Stove for 12 yds to the Nwest 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
73.9%
Bo Nix pass incomplete to Elijah CanionSimilar
Q2 0:27
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
73.2%
Bo Nix pass incomplete to Seth WilliamsSimilar
Q2 0:27
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
-5
74.1%
AUBURN Penalty, False Start (Alec Jackson) to the Nwest 10Similar
Q2 0:23
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
0
75.1%
Bo Nix pass incomplete to Seth WilliamsSimilar
Q2 0:17
4TH & GOAL
OPP 10
+27
72.2%
Anders Carlson 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 13END OF HALF
2 plays · -3 yds · 0:0075% → 75%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
74.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the Nwest 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:4027% → 26%
Q3 14:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
72.9%
Bo Nix run for 3 yds to the Aub 28Similar
Q3 14:10
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+4
72.7%
Bo Nix pass complete to Kobe Hudson for 4 yds to the Aub 32Similar
Q3 14:04
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
73.1%
Bo Nix pass incomplete to Seth WilliamsSimilar
Q3 13:55
4TH & 3
OWN 32
-2
74.1%
Oscar Chapman punt for 49 yds , Riley Lees returns for a loss of 2 yards to the Nwest 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 15PUNT
8 plays · 20 yds · 2:4875% → 75%
Q3 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+1
74.9%
Peyton Ramsey run for 1 yd to the Nwest 18Similar
Q3 13:00
2ND & 9
OWN 18
+6
74.9%
Cam Porter run for 6 yds to the Nwest 24Similar
Q3 12:45
3RD & 3
OWN 24
+9
74.2%
Peyton Ramsey run for 9 yds to the Nwest 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-6
75.9%
Cam Porter run for 4 yds to the Nwest 37 NORTHWESTERN Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Nwest 27Similar
Q3 11:45
1ST & 16
OWN 27
-7
75.1%
Peyton Ramsey sacked by Owen Pappoe for a loss of 7 yards to the Nwest 20Similar
Q3 11:10
2ND & 23
OWN 20
+8
74.9%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Raymond Niro III for 8 yds to the Nwest 28Similar
Q3 10:56
3RD & 15
OWN 28
+9
74.1%
Peyton Ramsey run for 9 yds to the Nwest 37Similar
Q3 10:42
4TH & 6
OWN 37
+7
74.5%
Derek Adams punt for 45 yds , Eli Stove returns for 7 yds to the Aub 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 16TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:4826% → 39%
Q3 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
74.4%
Bo Nix pass complete to Eli Stove for 6 yds to the Aub 31Similar
Q3 9:45
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+5
73.6%
Shaun Shivers run for 5 yds to the Aub 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
73.8%
Shaun Shivers run for 5 yds to the Aub 41Similar
Q3 9:10
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+5
72.5%
Bo Nix pass complete to Shedrick Jackson for 5 yds to the Aub 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-3
72.7%
Shaun Shivers run for a loss of 3 yards to the Aub 43Similar
Q3 8:32
2ND & 13
OWN 43
+57
61.1%
Bo Nix pass complete to Elijah Canion for 57 yds for a TD (Anders Carlson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 17DOWNS
9 plays · 39 yds · 2:1663% → 65%
Q3 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
62.9%
Cam Porter run for 3 yds to the Nwest 28Similar
Q3 7:33
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+3
63.0%
Peyton Ramsey run for 3 yds to the Nwest 31Similar
Q3 7:15
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+4
62.3%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to John Raine for 4 yds to the Nwest 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+21
63.4%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to John Raine for 21 yds to the Aub 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:25
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+7
67.0%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Riley Lees for 7 yds to the Aub 37Similar
Q3 6:19
2ND & 3
OPP 37
0
67.0%
Peyton Ramsey pass incomplete to Ramaud Chiaokhiao-BowmanSimilar
Q3 5:55
3RD & 3
OPP 37
+1
66.4%
Cam Porter run for 1 yd to the Aub 36Similar
Q3 5:44
4TH & 2
OPP 36
0
64.6%
Riley Lees run for no gain to the Aub 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:4639% → 39%
Q3 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-10
60.8%
Nix, Bo pass complete to Stove, Eli for 14 yards to the 50 yardline, PENALTY AUBURN illegal block 10 yards to the AUBURN26, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:00
1ST & 20
OWN 26
+17
61.7%
Bo Nix pass complete to Shaun Shivers for 17 yds to the Aub 43Similar
Q3 4:20
2ND & 3
OWN 43
+2
58.3%
D.J. Williams run for 2 yds to the Aub 45Similar
Q3 4:05
3RD & 1
OWN 45
-2
58.6%
J.J. Pegues run for a loss of 2 yards to the Aub 43Similar
Q3 3:44
4TH & 3
OWN 43
0
61.3%
Oscar Chapman punt for 44 yds, downed at the Nwest 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 19TD
10 plays · 87 yds · 1:5163% → 85%
Q3 3:25
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+2
62.6%
Cam Porter run for 2 yds to the Nwest 15Similar
Q3 3:10
2ND & 8
OWN 15
+30
62.6%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to John Raine for 30 yds to the Nwest 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
66.1%
Evan Hull run for 3 yds to the Nwest 48Similar
Q3 2:33
2ND & 7
OWN 48
0
66.5%
Peyton Ramsey pass incomplete to John RaineSimilar
Q3 2:13
3RD & 7
OWN 48
+7
64.7%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Ramaud Chiaokhiao-Bowman for 7 yds to the Aub 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
67.4%
Peyton Ramsey pass incomplete to Cam PorterSimilar
Q3 1:53
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+15
67.1%
Ramsey, Peyton pass incomplete to Porter, Cam, PENALTY AUBURN personal foul (Walker, Zykeivous) 15 yards to the AUBURN30, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN NORTHWSTRN.Similar
Q3 1:49
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
68.4%
Peyton Ramsey pass incomplete to Evan HullSimilar
Q3 1:43
2ND & 10
OPP 30
0
68.4%
Peyton Ramsey pass incomplete to Bryce KirtzSimilar
Q3 1:34
3RD & 10
OPP 30
+30
84.5%
Peyton Ramsey run for 30 yds for a TD (Charlie Kuhbander KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 20DOWNS
7 plays · 25 yds · 1:4519% → 19%
Q3 1:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
81.3%
Bo Nix run for no gain to the Aub 25Similar
Q3 0:50
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+16
82.2%
Bo Nix pass complete to John Samuel Shenker for 16 yds to the Aub 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:28
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
80.7%
Bo Nix pass complete to Elijah Canion for 3 yds to the Aub 44Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 7
OWN 44
+5
80.0%
Shaun Shivers run for 5 yds to the Aub 49Similar
Q4 14:39
3RD & 2
OWN 49
+1
79.7%
D.J. Williams run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 14:29
4TH & 1
50
0
80.9%
Bo Nix run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 21TD
8 plays · 50 yds · 1:4787% → 95%
Q4 14:00
1ST & 10
50
+19
86.7%
Cam Porter run for 19 yds to the Aub 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:45
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+9
87.1%
Cam Porter run for 9 yds to the Aub 22Similar
Q4 13:15
2ND & 1
OPP 22
+4
87.3%
Cam Porter run for 4 yds to the Aub 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:10
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+8
87.3%
Cam Porter run for 8 yds to the Aub 10Similar
Q4 12:45
2ND & 2
OPP 10
+4
89.5%
Cam Porter run for 4 yds to the Aub 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
89.5%
Cam Porter run for 5 yds to the Aub 1Similar
Q4 12:13
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
95.4%
Cam Porter run for 1 yd for a TD (Charlie Kuhbander KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 22FUMBLE
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:356% → 6%
Q4 11:59
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
93.6%
Bo Nix pass incomplete to Shedrick JacksonSimilar
Q4 11:40
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+8
93.8%
Cord Sandberg pass complete to Seth Williams for 8 yds to the Aub 28Similar
Q4 11:24
3RD & 2
OWN 28
-4
93.6%
Shaun Shivers run for a loss of 4 yards to the Aub 24 Shaun Shivers fumbled, recovered by Nwest Earnest Brown IVSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 23TD
6 plays · 24 yds · 3:1196% → 99%
Q4 11:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-1
96.0%
Cam Porter run for a loss of 1 yard to the Aub 25Similar
Q4 10:15
2ND & 11
OPP 25
+4
96.0%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Cam Porter for 4 yds to the Aub 21Similar
Q4 9:50
3RD & 7
OPP 21
+10
96.1%
Cam Porter run for 10 yds to the Aub 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:05
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+4
96.3%
Cam Porter run for 4 yds to the Aub 7Similar
Q4 8:20
2ND & 6
OPP 7
-1
96.5%
Cam Porter run for a loss of 1 yard to the Aub 8Similar
Q4 7:49
3RD & 7
OPP 8
+8
99.2%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Riley Lees for 8 yds for a TD (Charlie Kuhbander KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 24TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 2:391% → 4%
Q4 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
99.1%
Bo Nix sacked by Joe Spivak for a loss of 1 yard to the Aub 24Similar
Q4 7:10
2ND & 11
OWN 24
0
99.1%
Bo Nix pass incomplete to Eli StoveSimilar
Q4 6:50
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+24
99.3%
Bo Nix pass complete to Seth Williams for 24 yds to the Aub 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+22
99.3%
Bo Nix pass complete to Seth Williams for 22 yds to the Nwest 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:06
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
99.1%
Bo Nix pass incomplete to Seth WilliamsSimilar
Q4 5:45
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+6
99.2%
Bo Nix pass complete to Kobe Hudson for 6 yds to the Nwest 24Similar
Q4 5:20
3RD & 4
OPP 24
0
99.2%
Bo Nix pass incomplete to Kobe HudsonSimilar
Q4 4:55
4TH & 4
OPP 24
+14
99.3%
Bo Nix pass complete to Shedrick Jackson for 14 yds to the Nwest 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+8
99.2%
Nix, Bo pass incomplete, PENALTY NORTHWSTRN pass interference 8 yards to the NORTHWSTRN2, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN AUBURN.Similar
Q4 4:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
99.2%
Bo Nix pass incomplete to Seth WilliamsSimilar
Q4 4:41
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
96.5%
D.J. Williams run for 2 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 25END OF 4TH QUARTER
12 plays · 28 yds · 4:2998% → 99%
Q4 4:30
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-10
97.9%
Porter, Cam rush for 10 yards to the AUBURN33, PENALTY NORTHWSTRN holding 10 yards to the NORTHWSTRN47, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 4:00
1ST & 20
OWN 49
+17
97.8%
Cam Porter run for 2 yds to the Aub 49 for a 1ST down AUBURN Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (15 Yards) to the Aub 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+6
98.2%
Cam Porter run for 6 yds to the Aub 30Similar
Q4 2:40
2ND & 4
OPP 30
+2
98.3%
Cam Porter run for 2 yds to the Aub 28Similar
Q4 2:00
3RD & 2
OPP 28
0
98.6%
Cam Porter run for no gain to the Aub 28Similar
Q4 1:55
4TH & 2
OPP 28
-5
98.5%
NORTHWESTERN Penalty, False Start (Charlie Mangieri) to the Aub 33Similar
Q4 1:53
4TH & 7
OPP 33
+9
98.4%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Riley Lees for 9 yds to the Aub 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:15
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+3
98.7%
Jesse Brown run for 3 yds to the Aub 21Similar
Q4 0:40
2ND & 7
OPP 21
+3
98.7%
Jesse Brown run for 3 yds to the Aub 18Similar
Q4 0:01
3RD & 4
OPP 18
+3
98.8%
Jesse Brown run for 3 yds to the Aub 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 1:34
Peyton Ramsey run for 30 yds for a TD (Charlie Kuhbander KICK)
+16.2
TD · Q3 8:32
Bo Nix pass complete to Elijah Canion for 57 yds for a TD (Anders Carlson KICK)
-11.6
TD · Q4 12:13
Cam Porter run for 1 yd for a TD (Charlie Kuhbander KICK)
+5.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com