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TLSA

Tulsa 26 at Mississippi State 28

MSST
2020 · Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl · Dec 31, 2020 · Amon G. Carter Stadium
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Win probability · MSST
modelMSST aheadTLSA aheadconfidence bandkey playMSST scoreTLSA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 8:18 · Lachlan Wilson punt for 37 yds, downed at the MisSt 2
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+25.0+12.50−12.5−25.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 19Home team on offense+1.1Garbage-time factor+0.0Pregame prior+3.5Score differential+0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.3Blowout margin+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 6:37: Deneric Prince run for 14 yds for a TD (Zack Long KICK) — TLSA win probability +14.2 pts (now 46%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 3:29: Zach Smith pass intercepted for a TD Emmanuel Forbes return for 90 yds for a TD (Jace Christmann KICK) — MSST win probability +15.6 pts (now 74%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 12:30: Corey Taylor II run for 5 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — TLSA win probability +22.1 pts (now 45%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 8:01: Will Rogers pass complete to Lideatrick Griffin for 13 yds for a TD (Jace Christmann KICK) — MSST win probability +18.3 pts (now 88%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 1:23: Zach Smith pass complete to Keylon Stokes for 15 yds for a TD (Zack Long KICK) — TLSA win probability +27.1 pts (now 32%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MSST made the numbers' call on 6 of 8TLSA made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
  1. Q1 8:18TLSA 4th & 23 at MSST 39, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.0%−0.3
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    41.3%−<0.1
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    41.3%
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:40MSST 4th & 8 at MSST 4, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.3%−0.5
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.8%
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:40TLSA 4th & 7 at MSST 33, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 40.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    40.6%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    40.6%−<0.1
    49% to make
    Punt
    40.4%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:22MSST 4th & 22 at MSST 49, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.2%−1.2
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.4%
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:15TLSA 4th & 8 at MSST 9, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 37.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.9%−0.5
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    37.4%
    89% to make
    Punt
    33.1%−4.2
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:25MSST 4th & 8 at MSST 45, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.7%−0.5
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.2%
    average punt
  7. Q2 2:34TLSA 4th & 16 at MSST 16, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 38.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.3%−1.6
    14% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    37.9%
    81% to make
    Punt
    33.4%−4.5
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:00MSST 4th & 11 at TLSA 38, up 1
    Close callWent for it · 59.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    59.2%−0.6
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    59.2%−0.5
    38% to make
    Punt
    59.7%
    average punt
  9. Q3 14:21TLSA 4th & 5 at TLSA 29, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.4%−0.4
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.8%
    average punt
  10. Q3 10:25MSST 4th & 1 at TLSA 31, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 62.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    62.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    59.0%−3.8
    54% to make
    Punt
    57.2%−5.6
    average punt
  11. Q3 5:37MSST 4th & 3 at TLSA 32, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 63.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    63.5%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    61.4%−2.1
    51% to make
    Punt
    59.7%−3.9
    average punt
  12. Q3 2:09TLSA 4th & 10 at TLSA 38, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.1%−2.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.2%
    average punt
  13. Q3 0:41MSST 4th & 8 at MSST 32, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.8%−2.9
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.7%
    average punt
  14. Q4 14:15TLSA 4th & 1 at MSST 23, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 19.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    19.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    15.9%−3.6
    70% to make
    Punt
    3.6%−16.0
    average punt
  15. Q4 2:54MSST 4th & 3 at MSST 20, up 9
    Close callPunted · 92.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.8%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.5%−0.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MSST made the numbers' call on 4 of 4TLSA made the numbers' call on 1 of 3
  1. Q1 13:41MSST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 9:04MSST Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 6:37TLSA Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    40.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    40.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 3:29MSST Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 12:30TLSA Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    38.3%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    38.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 8:01MSST Touchdown, up 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 1:23TLSA Touchdown, down 3 before the try
    Numbers favored go for two by 2.0 ptsKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    14.3%−2.0
    97% to make
    Go for two
    16.3%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MSSTDrive 1TD
4 plays · 39 yds · 1:0954% → 55%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+8
53.9%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'Quavious Marks for 8 yds to the Tulsa 31Similar
Q1 14:15
2ND & 2
OPP 31
+3
54.1%
Will Rogers pass complete to Osirus Mitchell for 3 yds to the Tulsa 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:41
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+28
54.7%
Jo'Quavious Marks run for 28 yds for a TD (Jace Christmann KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 2PUNT
15 plays · 37 yds · 5:1745% → 43%
Q1 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+6
54.6%
JuanCarlos Santana run for 6 yds to the Tulsa 30Similar
Q1 12:51
2ND & 4
OWN 30
-4
54.8%
Zach Smith sacked by Erroll Thompson for a loss of 4 yards to the Tulsa 26Similar
Q1 12:32
3RD & 8
OWN 26
+11
55.1%
Zach Smith pass complete to Sam Crawford Jr. for 11 yds to the Tulsa 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:52
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+7
55.2%
Zach Smith pass complete to JuanCarlos Santana for 7 yds to the Tulsa 44Similar
Q1 11:44
2ND & 3
OWN 44
0
55.1%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to JuanCarlos SantanaSimilar
Q1 11:39
3RD & 3
OWN 44
+5
55.2%
Zach Smith pass complete to Keylon Stokes for 5 yds to the Tulsa 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:05
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-1
55.3%
Corey Taylor II run for a loss of 1 yard to the Tulsa 48Similar
Q1 10:24
2ND & 11
OWN 48
+9
55.7%
Zach Smith run for 9 yds to the MisSt 43Similar
Q1 10:06
3RD & 2
OPP 43
+17
55.6%
Zach Smith pass complete to Sam Crawford Jr. for 17 yds to the MisSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:51
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+5
55.4%
Corey Taylor II run for 5 yds to the MisSt 21Similar
Q1 9:14
2ND & 5
OPP 21
-3
55.8%
Zach Smith sacked by Aaron Brule and Tyrus Wheat for a loss of 3 yards to the MisSt 24Similar
Q1 8:36
3RD & 8
OPP 24
-15
56.3%
Zach Smith run for no gain to the MisSt 24 TULSA Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Dylan Couch) to the MisSt 39Similar
Q1 8:26
3RD & 23
OPP 39
0
57.0%
Zach Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:18
4TH & 23
OPP 39
0
57.3%
Lachlan Wilson punt for 37 yds, downed at the MisSt 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:3157% → 57%
Q1 8:11
1ST & 10
OWN 2
0
57.2%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Jaden WalleySimilar
Q1 7:45
2ND & 10
OWN 2
+4
57.3%
Dillon Johnson run for 4 yds to the MisSt 6Similar
Q1 7:31
3RD & 6
OWN 6
+2
57.1%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jaden Walley for 2 yds to the MisSt 8Similar
Q1 7:10
4TH & 4
OWN 8
-4
57.0%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, False Start (Collin Duncan) to the MisSt 4Similar
Q1 6:40
4TH & 8
OWN 4
-2
57.2%
Tucker Day punt for 42 yds , Keylon Stokes returns for a loss of 2 yards to the MisSt 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 4DOWNS
5 plays · 12 yds · 0:4543% → 42%
Q1 6:25
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+12
57.0%
Deneric Prince run for 12 yds to the MisSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:22
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+3
57.0%
Deneric Prince run for 3 yds to the MisSt 33Similar
Q1 5:52
2ND & 7
OPP 33
0
56.7%
Zach Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:46
3RD & 7
OPP 33
0
57.3%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Keylon StokesSimilar
Q1 5:40
4TH & 7
OPP 33
-3
57.9%
Zach Smith sacked by Aaron Odom for a loss of 3 yards to the MisSt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 5PUNT
11 plays · 13 yds · 5:0559% → 60%
Q1 5:27
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
58.9%
TULSA Penalty, Defensive Offside (Jaxon Player) to the MisSt 41Similar
Q1 5:22
1ST & 5
OWN 41
+1
59.4%
Jo'Quavious Marks run for 1 yd to the MisSt 42Similar
Q1 4:41
2ND & 4
OWN 42
+4
59.8%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'Quavious Marks for 4 yds to the MisSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:07
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
60.1%
Will Rogers pass complete to Dillon Johnson for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 3:45
2ND & 6
50
+11
60.3%
Dillon Johnson run for 11 yds to the Tulsa 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:05
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-5
60.8%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, False Start (Dareuan Parker) to the Tulsa 44Similar
Q1 2:17
1ST & 15
OPP 44
-4
60.3%
Will Rogers sacked by Akayleb Evans for a loss of 4 yards to the Tulsa 48Similar
Q1 1:32
2ND & 19
OPP 48
-8
60.6%
Will Rogers sacked by Tyarise Stevenson for a loss of 8 yards to the MisSt 44Similar
Q1 1:16
3RD & 27
OWN 44
-5
60.0%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Delay of Game (Will Rogers) to the MisSt 39Similar
Q1 1:05
3RD & 32
OWN 39
+10
60.1%
Dillon Johnson run for 10 yds to the MisSt 49Similar
Q1 0:22
4TH & 22
OWN 49
0
59.7%
Tucker Day punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Keylon Stokes at the Tulsa 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 6FG
12 plays · 72 yds · 4:0040% → 41%
Q1 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-2
60.2%
Corey Taylor II run for a loss of 2 yards to the Tulsa 17Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 12
OWN 17
+34
60.6%
Zach Smith pass complete to JuanCarlos Santana for 34 yds to the MisSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:20
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+8
58.9%
Zach Smith pass complete to Keylon Stokes for 8 yds to the MisSt 41Similar
Q2 14:10
2ND & 2
OPP 41
+20
58.8%
Corey Taylor II run for 20 yds to the MisSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:51
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
58.2%
Corey Taylor II run for no gain to the MisSt 21Similar
Q2 13:07
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+6
58.5%
Deneric Prince run for 6 yds to the MisSt 15Similar
Q2 12:32
3RD & 4
OPP 15
+4
59.4%
Zach Smith pass complete to Josh Johnson for 4 yds to the MisSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:06
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
58.6%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Josh JohnsonSimilar
Q2 12:01
2ND & 10
OPP 11
+2
58.6%
Corey Taylor II run for 2 yds to the MisSt 9Similar
Q2 11:17
3RD & 8
OPP 9
0
61.0%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Josh JohnsonSimilar
Q2 11:15
4TH & 8
OPP 9
+27
58.8%
Zack Long 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 7PUNT
10 plays · 30 yds · 3:4059% → 60%
Q2 11:05
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+6
58.6%
Lee Witherspoon run for 6 yds to the MisSt 21Similar
Q2 10:42
2ND & 4
OWN 29
-2
59.2%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'Quavious Marks for 8 yds to the MisSt 29 MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Illegal Block (Geor'quarius Spivey) to the MisSt 19Similar
Q2 10:10
2ND & 6
OWN 19
0
58.8%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Jaden WalleySimilar
Q2 9:49
3RD & 6
OWN 19
+24
58.4%
Will Rogers pass complete to Austin Williams for 24 yds to the MisSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:31
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-5
60.7%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, False Start (Kameron Jones) to the MisSt 38Similar
Q2 9:07
1ST & 15
OWN 38
0
59.8%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Dillon JohnsonSimilar
Q2 8:55
2ND & 15
OWN 38
-4
59.7%
Will Rogers sacked by Anthony Goodlow for a loss of 4 yards to the MisSt 34Similar
Q2 8:05
3RD & 19
OWN 34
+11
59.5%
Dillon Johnson run for 11 yds to the MisSt 45Similar
Q2 7:25
4TH & 8
OWN 45
+1
60.3%
Tucker Day punt for 44 yds , Keylon Stokes returns for 1 yd to the Tulsa 46 TULSA Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Keylon Stokes) to the Tulsa 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 8FG
11 plays · 78 yds · 4:3142% → 41%
Q2 7:05
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+42
58.4%
Zach Smith pass complete to JuanCarlos Santana for 57 yds to the MS State 37 for a 1ST down TULSA Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Ethan Hall) to the Tulsa 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+5
58.7%
Corey Taylor II run for 5 yds to the MisSt 47Similar
Q2 6:12
2ND & 5
OPP 47
+1
58.6%
Corey Taylor II run for 1 yd to the MisSt 46Similar
Q2 5:43
3RD & 4
OPP 46
+14
59.0%
Zach Smith pass complete to JuanCarlos Santana for 14 yds to the MisSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:22
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+3
57.7%
Zach Smith pass complete to Keylon Stokes for 3 yds to the MisSt 29Similar
Q2 4:59
2ND & 7
OPP 29
+9
57.7%
Zach Smith pass complete to Keylon Stokes for 9 yds to the MisSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:35
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+10
57.7%
Corey Taylor II run for 10 yds to the MisSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+2
57.8%
Corey Taylor II run for 2 yds to the MisSt 8Similar
Q2 3:32
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
57.9%
Corey Taylor II run for 2 yds to the MisSt 6Similar
Q2 2:59
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
-10
59.3%
Zach Smith sacked by Sherman Timbs for a loss of 10 yards to the MisSt 16Similar
Q2 2:34
4TH & GOAL
OPP 16
+33
59.4%
Zack Long 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 9DOWNS
11 plays · 16 yds · 2:2563% → 59%
Q2 2:25
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
62.8%
Will Rogers pass complete to Malik Heath for no gain to the MisSt 46Similar
Q2 1:44
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+3
61.8%
Dillon Johnson run for 3 yds to the MisSt 49Similar
Q2 1:07
3RD & 7
OWN 49
+14
60.8%
Will Rogers pass complete to Austin Williams for 14 yds to the Tulsa 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:50
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
62.7%
Will Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:50
2ND & 10
OPP 37
-5
62.5%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Delay of Game (Will Rogers) to the Tulsa 42Similar
Q2 0:45
2ND & 15
OPP 42
0
61.1%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Lideatrick GriffinSimilar
Q2 0:38
3RD & 15
OPP 42
+4
60.0%
Jo'Quavious Marks run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 38Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 11
OPP 38
0
58.5%
Will Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:3441% → 39%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+5
58.9%
Zach Smith pass complete to Sam Crawford Jr. for 5 yds to the Tulsa 29Similar
Q3 14:36
2ND & 5
OWN 29
0
58.1%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Keylon StokesSimilar
Q3 14:32
3RD & 5
OWN 29
0
59.4%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Josh JohnsonSimilar
Q3 14:21
4TH & 5
OWN 29
+5
61.0%
Lachlan Wilson punt for 40 yds , Austin Williams returns for 5 yds to the MisSt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 11TD
10 plays · 64 yds · 5:0661% → 77%
Q3 14:10
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
61.1%
Jo'Quavious Marks run for 3 yds to the MisSt 39Similar
Q3 13:45
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+7
62.2%
Will Rogers pass complete to Malik Heath for 7 yds to the MisSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
63.0%
TULSA Penalty, Defensive Offside (Anthony Goodlow) to the Tulsa 49Similar
Q3 12:59
1ST & 5
OPP 49
+9
63.3%
Jo'Quavious Marks run for 9 yds to the Tulsa 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:32
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-6
63.5%
Will Rogers sacked by Haydon Grant and Justin Wright for a loss of 6 yards to the Tulsa 46Similar
Q3 11:49
2ND & 16
OPP 46
+9
61.6%
Will Rogers pass complete to Malik Heath for 9 yds to the Tulsa 37Similar
Q3 11:15
3RD & 7
OPP 37
+6
63.1%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jaden Walley for 6 yds to the Tulsa 31Similar
Q3 10:25
4TH & 1
OPP 31
+15
61.9%
Jo'Quavious Marks run for 15 yds to the Tulsa 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:49
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+3
65.0%
Jo'Quavious Marks run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 13Similar
Q3 9:04
2ND & 7
OPP 13
+13
77.3%
Will Rogers run for 13 yds for a TD (Jace Christmann KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 12TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:1827% → 46%
Q3 8:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
73.2%
Zach Smith sacked by Aaron Odom for a loss of 1 yard to the Tulsa 24Similar
Q3 8:21
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+34
73.5%
Zach Smith pass complete to Keylon Stokes for 34 yds to the MisSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:03
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
70.2%
Zach Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:55
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+16
70.5%
Corey Taylor II run for 16 yds to the MisSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:32
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+11
68.3%
Zach Smith pass complete to Josh Stewart for 11 yds to the MisSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:15
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+1
68.4%
Corey Taylor II run for 1 yd to the MisSt 14Similar
Q3 6:37
2ND & 9
OPP 14
+14
54.3%
Deneric Prince run for 14 yds for a TD (Zack Long KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 13DOWNS
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:4665% → 63%
Q3 6:23
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
65.1%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Jaden WalleySimilar
Q3 6:15
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+7
64.9%
Dillon Johnson run for 7 yds to the Tulsa 32Similar
Q3 5:44
3RD & 3
OPP 32
0
64.7%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Austin WilliamsSimilar
Q3 5:37
4TH & 3
OPP 32
-2
62.5%
Dillon Johnson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Tulsa 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 14INT TD
7 plays · 28 yds · 2:0041% → 17%
Q3 5:29
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
59.3%
Deneric Prince run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 37Similar
Q3 4:55
2ND & 7
OWN 37
+14
58.1%
Zach Smith pass complete to Malik Rodgers for 14 yds to the MisSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:32
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-1
55.7%
Deneric Prince run for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 4:08
2ND & 11
50
0
57.0%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Keylon StokesSimilar
Q3 4:02
3RD & 11
50
+12
58.3%
Zach Smith pass complete to Malik Rodgers for 12 yds to the MisSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:29
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-90
73.9%
Zach Smith pass intercepted for a TD Emmanuel Forbes return for 90 yds for a TD (Jace Christmann KICK)Similar
Q3 3:29
1ST & -5
50
-15
82.8%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-15 Yards) to the MisSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 15PUNT
7 plays · 13 yds · 1:0821% → 19%
Q3 3:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
79.1%
Corey Taylor II run for 13 yds to the Tulsa 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:05
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
78.4%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Sam Crawford Jr.Similar
Q3 3:05
2ND & 10
OWN 38
-5
78.6%
TULSA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Tulsa 33Similar
Q3 2:54
2ND & 15
OWN 33
+5
79.8%
Zach Smith run for 5 yds to the Tulsa 38Similar
Q3 2:15
3RD & 10
OWN 38
0
80.0%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Sam Crawford Jr.Similar
Q3 2:09
4TH & 10
OWN 38
0
81.2%
Lachlan Wilson punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Austin Williams at the MisSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 12 yds · 1:2482% → 81%
Q3 2:05
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+10
82.0%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'Quavious Marks for 10 yds to the MisSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:32
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
82.7%
Will Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:23
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+2
82.5%
Jo'Quavious Marks run for 2 yds to the MisSt 32Similar
Q3 0:47
3RD & 8
OWN 32
0
82.3%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Malik HeathSimilar
Q3 0:41
4TH & 8
OWN 32
0
81.1%
Tucker Day punt for no gain , Trevor Reh returns for no gain to the MisSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 17TD
9 plays · 32 yds · 3:0124% → 45%
Q3 0:31
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+2
76.3%
Deneric Prince run for 2 yds to the MisSt 30Similar
Q3 0:10
2ND & 8
OPP 30
+2
76.0%
Deneric Prince run for 2 yds to the MisSt 28Similar
Q4 14:55
3RD & 6
OPP 28
+5
78.1%
Zach Smith pass complete to Corey Taylor II for 5 yds to the MisSt 23Similar
Q4 14:15
4TH & 1
OPP 23
+3
79.5%
Corey Taylor II run for 3 yds to the MisSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:50
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
76.6%
Corey Taylor II run for no gain to the MisSt 20Similar
Q4 13:03
2ND & 10
OPP 20
0
77.4%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Josh StewartSimilar
Q4 12:57
3RD & 10
OPP 20
+11
79.4%
Zach Smith pass complete to Malik Rodgers for 11 yds to the MisSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+4
77.0%
Keylon Stokes run for 4 yds to the MisSt 5Similar
Q4 12:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
54.9%
Corey Taylor II run for 5 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 18TD
12 plays · 65 yds · 4:2165% → 88%
Q4 12:22
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
65.4%
Will Rogers pass complete to Dillon Johnson for 9 yds to the MisSt 44Similar
Q4 12:05
2ND & 1
OWN 44
+7
68.6%
Dillon Johnson run for 7 yds to the Tulsa 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:37
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
69.2%
Will Rogers pass complete to Austin Williams for 4 yds to the Tulsa 45Similar
Q4 10:49
2ND & 6
OPP 45
+5
69.6%
Dillon Johnson run for 5 yds to the Tulsa 40Similar
Q4 10:20
3RD & 1
OPP 40
+1
69.1%
Dillon Johnson run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:35
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+3
69.8%
Lee Witherspoon run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 36Similar
Q4 9:11
2ND & 7
OPP 36
+13
69.9%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jaden Walley for 13 yds to the Tulsa 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:55
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+4
71.1%
Will Rogers pass complete to Lideatrick Griffin for 4 yds to the Tulsa 19Similar
Q4 8:22
2ND & 6
OPP 19
0
71.4%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Austin WilliamsSimilar
Q4 8:07
3RD & 6
OPP 19
+6
69.7%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jaden Walley for 6 yds to the Tulsa 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:01
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
87.9%
Will Rogers pass complete to Lideatrick Griffin for 13 yds for a TD (Jace Christmann KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 19INT
14 plays · 57 yds · 4:3615% → 11%
Q4 7:55
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
85.3%
Corey Taylor II run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 39Similar
Q4 7:13
2ND & 8
OWN 39
0
86.0%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Sam Crawford Jr.Similar
Q4 7:07
3RD & 8
OWN 39
+12
87.1%
Zach Smith pass complete to Keylon Stokes for 12 yds to the MisSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:50
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
84.9%
Zach Smith pass complete to Malik Rodgers for 5 yds to the MisSt 44Similar
Q4 6:32
2ND & 5
OPP 44
+6
84.6%
Zach Smith pass complete to Josh Stewart for 6 yds to the MisSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:03
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
87.9%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Keylon StokesSimilar
Q4 5:54
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+19
87.9%
Zach Smith pass complete to Keylon Stokes for 19 yds to the MisSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:35
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+8
86.5%
Zach Smith pass complete to Sam Crawford Jr. for 8 yds to the MisSt 11Similar
Q4 5:15
2ND & 2
OPP 11
-2
86.7%
Corey Taylor II run for a loss of 2 yards to the MisSt 13Similar
Q4 5:05
3RD & 4
OPP 13
+4
87.9%
Zach Smith run for 4 yds to the MisSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+3
87.0%
Corey Taylor II run for 3 yds to the MisSt 6Similar
Q4 3:35
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
87.3%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Keylon StokesSimilar
Q4 3:19
3RD & 6
OPP 26
-36
88.6%
Zach Smith pass intercepted Tyrus Wheat return for 23 yds to the MisSt 0 MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Personal Foul (Erroll Thompson) to the MisSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 20PUNT
7 plays · 7 yds · 0:2193% → 94%
Q4 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+3
92.8%
Jo'Quavious Marks run for 3 yds to the MisSt 16Similar
Q4 3:09
2ND & 7
OWN 16
+3
93.8%
Jo'Quavious Marks run for 3 yds to the MisSt 19Similar
Q4 3:05
3RD & 4
OWN 19
+1
94.1%
Jo'Quavious Marks run for 1 yd to the MisSt 20Similar
Q4 2:54
4TH & 3
OWN 20
0
93.6%
Reed Bowman punt for 35 yds, downed at the Tulsa 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 21TD
7 plays · 55 yds · 1:264% → 32%
Q4 2:49
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
96.3%
Zach Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:36
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+15
96.4%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Collin Duncan) to the MisSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:30
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+9
96.0%
Zach Smith pass complete to Malik Rodgers for 9 yds to the MisSt 31Similar
Q4 2:09
2ND & 1
OPP 31
0
95.4%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Josh StewartSimilar
Q4 2:03
3RD & 1
OPP 31
+12
96.1%
Zach Smith pass complete to Keylon Stokes for 12 yds to the MisSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:46
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+4
94.8%
Zach Smith run for 4 yds to the MisSt 15Similar
Q4 1:23
2ND & 6
OPP 15
+15
67.7%
Zach Smith pass complete to Keylon Stokes for 15 yds for a TD (Zack Long KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 1:23
Zach Smith pass complete to Keylon Stokes for 15 yds for a TD (Zack Long KICK)
-27.1
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+23.5
TD · Q4 12:30
Corey Taylor II run for 5 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed )
-22.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com