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WAKE

Wake Forest 28 at Wisconsin 42

WIS
2020 · Duke's Mayo Bowl · Dec 30, 2020 · Bank of America Stadium
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Win probability · WIS
modelWIS aheadWAKE aheadconfidence bandkey playWIS scoreWAKE score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 7:22 · Justice Ellison run for no gain to the Wisc 46
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+33.5+16.80−16.8−33.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 113Pregame prior+11.6Home team on offense−4.2Score differential−3.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.5Garbage-time factor+0.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+1.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 3:21: Graham Mertz run for 1 yd for a TD, (Collin Larsh KICK) — WIS win probability +9.3 pts (now 74%) (top driver: WIS has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 11:11: Sam Hartman pass complete to Jaquarii Roberson for 8 yds for a TD, (Jack Crane KICK) — WAKE win probability +14.5 pts (now 53%) (top driver: WAKE has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 8:46: Graham Mertz run for 1 yd for a TD, (Collin Larsh KICK) — WIS win probability +16.5 pts (now 72%) (top driver: WIS has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 1:20: Graham Mertz pass complete to Mason Stokke for 14 yds for a TD, (Collin Larsh KICK) — WIS win probability +17.0 pts (now 87%) (top driver: WIS has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 13:49: Garrett Groshek run for 1 yd for a TD, (Collin Larsh KICK) — WIS win probability +7.1 pts (now 95%) (top driver: WIS has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
WIS made the numbers' call on 4 of 8WAKE made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 9:20WIS 4th & 1 at WIS 34, down 7
    Close callPunted · 72.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.6%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:43WIS 4th & 15 at WIS 29, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.9%−1.1
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.0%
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:56WAKE 4th & 15 at WAKE 34, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.8%−1.4
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.1%
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:15WIS 4th & 1 at WIS 34, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 64.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    65.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    64.7%−0.6
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:21WAKE 4th & 10 at WAKE 46, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.9%−0.5
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.5%
    average punt
  6. Q2 6:38WIS 4th & 9 at WAKE 41, down 7
    Close callPunted · 59.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.9%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    58.2%−0.7
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    58.6%−0.4
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:34WAKE 4th & 10 at WAKE 21, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.8%−1.8
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.6%
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:44WAKE 4th & 4 at WAKE 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.2%−0.3
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.5%
    average punt
  9. Q3 13:02WIS 4th & 1 at WIS 34, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.6 ptsPunted · 66.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.9%−1.6
    average punt
  10. Q3 7:22WAKE 4th & 1 at WIS 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 39.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    39.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    33.5%−6.1
    23% to make
    Punt
    35.9%−3.6
    average punt
  11. Q3 5:07WIS 4th & 2 at WAKE 46, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.0 ptsPunted · 66.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    62.8%−4.3
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    65.0%−2.0
    average punt
  12. Q4 14:29WAKE 4th & 4 at WIS 41, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 21.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    22.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    19.2%−3.0
    32% to make
    Punt
    19.9%−2.2
    average punt
  13. Q4 11:25WIS 4th & 14 at WAKE 30, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 94.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.7%−1.2
    18% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    94.0%
    56% to make
    Punt
    92.9%−1.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 7:25WAKE 4th & 8 at WAKE 49, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 1.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.9%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.0%
    average punt
  15. Q4 6:15WAKE 4th & 10 at WIS 12, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 0.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.7%−0.5
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    1.3%
    86% to make
    Punt
    0.2%−1.1
    average punt
  16. Q4 2:14WIS 4th & 14 at WIS 19, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.0%−0.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.2%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WIS made the numbers' call on 6 of 6WAKE made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 11:21WAKE Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    25.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    25.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 7:21WAKE Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    29.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    29.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 13:28WIS Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 3:21WIS Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 11:11WAKE Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    48.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    48.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 8:46WIS Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 1:20WIS Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 13:49WIS Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 9:24WIS Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 0:06WAKE Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    2.0%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    2.0%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
WAKEDrive 1TD
10 plays · 65 yds · 3:3421% → 23%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-4
79.3%
Christian Beal-Smith run for a loss of 4 yards to the WFrst 31Similar
Q1 14:35
2ND & 14
OWN 31
+3
79.2%
Sam Hartman run for 3 yds to the WFrst 34Similar
Q1 14:05
3RD & 11
OWN 34
+36
79.1%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Donavon Greene for 36 yds to the Wisc 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:50
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+2
78.9%
Christian Beal-Smith run for 2 yds to the Wisc 28Similar
Q1 13:30
2ND & 8
OPP 28
+8
78.8%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Christian Beal-Smith for 8 yds to the Wisc 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+12
78.6%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Taylor Morin for 12 yds to the Wisc 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
78.4%
Christian Beal-Smith run for 2 yds to the Wisc 6Similar
Q1 12:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
78.2%
Christian Beal-Smith run for 2 yds to the Wisc 4Similar
Q1 11:21
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
77.2%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Jaquarii Roberson for 4 yds for a TD, (Jack Crane KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:5577% → 76%
Q1 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
77.4%
Garrett Groshek run for 3 yds to the Wisc 28Similar
Q1 10:55
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+1
77.2%
Jalen Berger run for 1 yd to the Wisc 29Similar
Q1 10:05
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+5
76.7%
Graham Mertz run for 5 yds to the Wisc 34Similar
Q1 9:20
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
76.2%
Andy Vujnovich punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Taylor Morin at the WFrst 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 3TD
6 plays · 71 yds · 1:5524% → 28%
Q1 9:16
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
76.2%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Donavon GreeneSimilar
Q1 9:10
2ND & 10
OWN 29
0
76.1%
Sam Hartman run for no gain to the WFrst 29Similar
Q1 8:45
3RD & 10
OWN 29
+46
75.9%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Taylor Morin for 46 yds to the Wisc 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:10
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+5
74.9%
Sam Hartman run for 5 yds to the Wisc 20Similar
Q1 7:55
2ND & 5
OPP 20
+2
74.7%
Christian Beal-Smith run for 2 yds to the Wisc 18Similar
Q1 7:21
3RD & 3
OPP 18
+18
72.0%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Jaquarii Roberson for 18 yds for a TD, (Jack Crane KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 4PUNT
7 plays · 6 yds · 1:1773% → 71%
Q1 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+11
72.8%
Garrett Groshek run for 11 yds to the Wisc 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
72.2%
Garrett Groshek run for no gain to the Wisc 34Similar
Q1 5:57
2ND & 10
OWN 34
0
71.8%
Graham Mertz pass incomplete to Jake FergusonSimilar
Q1 5:53
3RD & 10
OWN 34
0
71.6%
Graham Mertz pass incomplete to Jake Ferguson, broken up by Nick AndersenSimilar
Q1 5:52
4TH & 10
OWN 34
-5
71.5%
WISCONSIN Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Wisc 29Similar
Q1 5:43
4TH & 15
OWN 29
0
71.3%
Andy Vujnovich punt for 32 yds, downed at the WFrst 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 0:4330% → 30%
Q1 5:39
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
70.2%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Jaquarii RobersonSimilar
Q1 5:25
2ND & 10
OWN 39
0
70.0%
Sam Hartman run for no gain to the WFrst 39Similar
Q1 5:04
3RD & 10
OWN 39
0
69.8%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Jaquarii Roberson, broken up by Faion HicksSimilar
Q1 5:03
4TH & 10
OWN 39
-5
70.1%
WAKE FOREST Penalty, False Start (Ryan Smenda Jr.) to the WFrst 34Similar
Q1 4:56
4TH & 15
OWN 34
0
70.2%
Ivan Mora punt for 41 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Wisc 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 6TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 6:2071% → 71%
Q1 4:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
70.6%
Mertz, Graham pass complete to Ferguson, Jake for 40 yards to the WAKEFOREST35, PENALTY WISCONSIN ineligible downfield on pass 5 yards to the WISCONSIN20, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:10
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+13
70.1%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Jack Dunn for 13 yds to the Wisc 33Similar
Q1 3:48
2ND & 2
OWN 33
0
70.2%
Graham Mertz pass incomplete to Chimere DikeSimilar
Q1 3:45
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+1
70.1%
Mason Stokke run for 1 yd to the Wisc 34Similar
Q1 3:15
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+3
68.5%
Graham Mertz run for 3 yds to the Wisc 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:17
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+10
67.9%
Mertz, Graham pass complete to Groshek, Garrett for no gain to the WISCONSIN37, PENALTY WAKEFOREST holding (Taylor, Ja'Sir) 10 yards to the WISCONSIN47, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN WISCONSIN.Similar
Q1 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-2
68.0%
Jalen Berger run for a loss of 2 yards to the Wisc 45Similar
Q1 1:25
2ND & 12
OWN 45
+27
67.1%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Chimere Dike for 27 yds to the WFrst 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:40
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-2
67.3%
Chimere Dike run for a loss of 2 yards to the WFrst 30Similar
Q1 0:05
2ND & 12
OPP 30
+19
66.7%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Jack Dunn for 19 yds to the WFrst 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+6
66.7%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Garrett Groshek for 6 yds to the WFrst 5Similar
Q2 14:20
2ND & 4
OPP 5
+3
66.2%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Garrett Groshek for 3 yds to the WFrst 2Similar
Q2 13:28
3RD & 1
OPP 2
+2
70.5%
John Chenal run for 2 yds for a TD, (Collin Larsh KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 7PUNT
7 plays · 21 yds · 0:5432% → 32%
Q2 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
68.3%
Christian Beal-Smith run for 1 yd to the WFrst 26Similar
Q2 12:55
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+20
68.2%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Donavon Greene for 20 yds to the WFrst 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:39
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
66.8%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Donavon GreeneSimilar
Q2 12:35
2ND & 10
OWN 46
0
66.9%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Donavon GreeneSimilar
Q2 12:31
3RD & 10
OWN 46
0
67.2%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Taylor MorinSimilar
Q2 12:21
4TH & 10
OWN 46
0
68.1%
Ivan Mora punt for 48 yds , Dean Engram returns for no gain to the Wisc 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 8PUNT
12 plays · 53 yds · 5:3868% → 62%
Q2 12:16
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+10
67.9%
Jalen Berger run for 10 yds to the Wisc 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:36
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+6
67.6%
Jalen Berger run for 6 yds to the Wisc 22Similar
Q2 11:03
2ND & 4
OWN 22
+11
67.4%
Jalen Berger run for 11 yds to the Wisc 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:34
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-5
67.2%
WISCONSIN Penalty, False Start (Jake Ferguson) to the Wisc 28Similar
Q2 10:00
1ST & 15
OWN 28
+9
66.4%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Jack Dunn for 9 yds to the Wisc 37Similar
Q2 9:32
2ND & 6
OWN 37
+10
66.8%
Garrett Groshek run for 10 yds to the Wisc 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:46
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
66.9%
Graham Mertz pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:30
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+11
66.5%
Garrett Groshek run for 11 yds to the WFrst 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+1
66.1%
Jalen Berger run for 1 yd to the WFrst 41Similar
Q2 7:22
2ND & 9
OPP 41
0
65.6%
Graham Mertz pass incomplete to Jalen BergerSimilar
Q2 7:17
3RD & 9
OPP 41
0
64.7%
Garrett Groshek run for no gain to the WFrst 41Similar
Q2 6:38
4TH & 9
OPP 41
0
62.3%
Conor Schlichting punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Taylor Morin at the WFrst 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · 11 yds · 0:5638% → 37%
Q2 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+8
61.9%
Christian Beal-Smith run for 8 yds to the WFrst 18Similar
Q2 6:10
2ND & 2
OWN 18
+3
61.0%
Christian Beal-Smith run for 3 yds to the WFrst 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:49
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
61.2%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Taylor MorinSimilar
Q2 5:45
2ND & 10
OWN 21
0
61.3%
Sam Hartman pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:39
3RD & 10
OWN 21
0
62.1%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Jaquarii RobersonSimilar
Q2 5:34
4TH & 10
OWN 21
0
62.6%
Ivan Mora punt blocked by Jaylan Franklin blocked by Jaylan Franklin Jaylan Franklin return for no gain to the WFrst 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 10TD
6 plays · 9 yds · 2:0165% → 74%
Q2 5:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
65.2%
Garrett Groshek run for 2 yds to the WFrst 7Similar
Q2 4:52
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
64.8%
Graham Mertz pass incomplete to Jake FergusonSimilar
Q2 4:47
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
63.6%
Mertz, Graham pass incomplete to Ferguson, Jake, PENALTY WAKEFOREST holding (Taylor, Ja'Sir) 4 yards to the WAKEFOREST3, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN WISCONSIN.Similar
Q2 4:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
64.7%
Garrett Groshek run for 2 yds to the WFrst 1Similar
Q2 4:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
64.3%
John Chenal run for no gain to the WFrst 1Similar
Q2 3:21
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
73.6%
Graham Mertz run for 1 yd for a TD, (Collin Larsh KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 11PUNT
7 plays · 6 yds · 1:3731% → 30%
Q2 3:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
68.6%
WAKE FOREST Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the WFrst 20Similar
Q2 3:00
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+8
68.6%
Justice Ellison run for 8 yds to the WFrst 28Similar
Q2 2:30
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+3
67.7%
Justice Ellison run for 3 yds to the WFrst 31Similar
Q2 1:52
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
67.9%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Donavon Greene, broken up by Deron HarrellSimilar
Q2 1:44
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
69.6%
Ivan Mora punt for 48 yds , Dean Engram returns for no gain to the Wisc 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 12INT
5 plays · 26 yds · 1:1272% → 73%
Q2 1:44
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+4
71.6%
Chase Wolf run for 4 yds to the Wisc 25Similar
Q2 1:08
2ND & 6
OWN 25
+8
71.8%
Chase Wolf run for 8 yds to the Wisc 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+5
71.8%
Chase Wolf pass complete to Garrett Groshek for 5 yds to the Wisc 38Similar
Q2 0:39
2ND & 5
OWN 38
+9
73.2%
Chase Wolf pass complete to Jack Dunn for 9 yds to the Wisc 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:32
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
73.3%
Chase Wolf pass intercepted Nick Andersen return for no gain to the WFrst 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 13END OF HALF
1 play · 5 yds · 0:0032% → 32%
Q2 0:25
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+5
67.9%
Christian Beal-Smith run for 5 yds to the WFrst 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:5870% → 68%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
70.2%
Garrett Groshek run for 5 yds to the Wisc 30Similar
Q3 14:13
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-4
70.6%
Garrett Groshek run for a loss of 4 yards to the Wisc 26Similar
Q3 13:45
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+8
68.4%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Chimere Dike for 8 yds to the Wisc 34Similar
Q3 13:02
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
68.4%
Andy Vujnovich punt for 16 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 15TD
5 plays · 50 yds · 1:3437% → 53%
Q3 12:45
1ST & 10
50
+5
62.9%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Taylor Morin for 5 yds to the Wisc 45Similar
Q3 12:35
2ND & 5
OPP 45
+5
62.6%
Christian Beal-Smith run for 5 yds to the Wisc 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:47
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+28
62.6%
Christian Beal-Smith run for 28 yds to the Wisc 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:35
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+4
61.1%
Christian Beal-Smith run for 4 yds to the Wisc 8Similar
Q3 11:11
2ND & 6
OPP 8
+8
46.6%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Jaquarii Roberson for 8 yds for a TD, (Jack Crane KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 16TD
7 plays · 33 yds · 2:1356% → 72%
Q3 10:59
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
56.2%
Garrett Groshek run for no gain to the WFrst 33Similar
Q3 10:35
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+21
55.8%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Jake Ferguson for 21 yds to the WFrst 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+9
55.5%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Jack Dunn for 9 yds to the WFrst 3Similar
Q3 9:30
2ND & 1
OPP 3
+2
55.1%
John Chenal run for 2 yds to the WFrst 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
71.7%
Graham Mertz run for 1 yd for a TD, (Collin Larsh KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 17DOWNS
6 plays · 29 yds · 1:1836% → 39%
Q3 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+20
63.8%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Jaquarii Roberson for 20 yds to the WFrst 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
60.5%
Justice Ellison run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 8:00
2ND & 5
50
-1
59.6%
Justice Ellison run for a loss of 1 yard to the WFrst 49Similar
Q3 7:47
3RD & 6
OWN 49
+5
59.9%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Donavon Greene for 5 yds to the Wisc 46Similar
Q3 7:22
4TH & 1
OPP 46
0
61.1%
Justice Ellison run for no gain to the Wisc 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 2:0870% → 67%
Q3 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+6
69.6%
Jalen Berger run for 6 yds to the WFrst 48Similar
Q3 6:40
2ND & 4
OPP 48
+2
70.3%
Jalen Berger run for 2 yds to the WFrst 46Similar
Q3 5:50
3RD & 2
OPP 46
0
69.1%
Garrett Groshek run for no gain to the WFrst 46Similar
Q3 5:07
4TH & 2
OPP 46
0
67.0%
Andy Vujnovich punt for 45 yds, downed at the WFrst 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 19INT
9 plays · 71 yds · 2:5638% → 46%
Q3 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+6
62.3%
Christian Beal-Smith run for 6 yds to the WFrst 7Similar
Q3 4:35
2ND & 4
OWN 7
+6
62.5%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Jaquarii Roberson for 6 yds to the WFrst 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 13
-1
61.3%
Christian Beal-Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the WFrst 12Similar
Q3 3:40
2ND & 11
OWN 12
+14
61.7%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Taylor Morin for 14 yds to the WFrst 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:28
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+10
60.5%
Hartman, Sam pass incomplete to Morin, Taylor, PENALTY WISCONSIN holding (Harrell, Deron) 10 yards to the WAKEFOREST36, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN WAKEFOREST.Similar
Q3 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+24
58.9%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Donavon Greene for 24 yds to the Wisc 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+12
55.7%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Christian Beal-Smith for 12 yds to the Wisc 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:40
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
53.3%
Christian Beal-Smith run for no gain to the Wisc 28Similar
Q3 2:04
2ND & 10
OPP 28
-41
53.6%
Sam Hartman pass intercepted Noah Burks return for 41 yds to the WFrst 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 20TD
2 plays · 32 yds · 0:4070% → 87%
Q3 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+18
69.7%
Devin Chandler run for 18 yds to the WFrst 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:20
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
86.6%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Mason Stokke for 14 yds for a TD, (Collin Larsh KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 21INT
8 plays · 43 yds · 1:4120% → 22%
Q3 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+22
79.7%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Donavon Greene for 22 yds to the WFrst 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:48
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
78.3%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Donavon GreeneSimilar
Q3 0:40
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+15
78.6%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Donavon Greene for 15 yds to the Wisc 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:21
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
76.1%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Jaquarii RobersonSimilar
Q3 0:19
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+2
76.9%
Christian Beal-Smith run for 2 yds to the Wisc 45Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 45
+4
76.7%
Justice Ellison run for 4 yds to the Wisc 41Similar
Q4 14:29
4TH & 4
OPP 41
-60
77.8%
Sam Hartman pass intercepted Scott Nelson return for 60 yds to the WFrst 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 22TD
2 plays · 2 yds · 0:2688% → 95%
Q4 14:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
87.6%
John Chenal run for 1 yd to the WFrst 1Similar
Q4 13:49
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
94.7%
Garrett Groshek run for 1 yd for a TD, (Collin Larsh KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 23INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:009% → 9%
Q4 13:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
91.4%
Sam Hartman pass intercepted Jack Sanborn return for 3 yds to the WFrst 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 24MISSED FG
5 plays · -4 yds · 2:1595% → 96%
Q4 13:40
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-1
94.8%
Jalen Berger run for a loss of 1 yard to the WFrst 27Similar
Q4 13:00
2ND & 11
OPP 27
+2
94.8%
Graham Mertz run for 2 yds to the WFrst 25Similar
Q4 11:58
3RD & 9
OPP 25
-5
96.7%
Jalen Berger run for a loss of 5 yards to the WFrst 30Similar
Q4 11:25
4TH & 14
OPP 30
+48
96.0%
Jack Van Dyke 48 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 25INT
6 plays · 43 yds · 1:429% → 9%
Q4 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
91.3%
Sam Hartman run for no gain to the WFrst 30Similar
Q4 11:00
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+15
91.9%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Brandon Chapman for 15 yds to the WFrst 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+25
91.0%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Brandon Chapman for 25 yds to the Wisc 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:25
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+3
90.6%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Justice Ellison for 3 yds to the Wisc 27Similar
Q4 9:47
2ND & 7
OPP 27
0
90.1%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Donavon GreeneSimilar
Q4 9:33
3RD & 7
OPP 27
-72
91.2%
Sam Hartman pass intercepted Collin Wilder return for 72 yds to the WFrst 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 26TD
2 plays · 3 yds · 0:0597% → 100%
Q4 9:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
97.4%
Mertz, Graham pass incomplete to Ferguson, Jake, PENALTY WAKEFOREST personal foul (Bothroyd, Rondell) 2 yards to the WAKEFOREST1, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN WISCONSIN.Similar
Q4 9:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.5%
Jalen Berger run for 1 yd for a TD, (Collin Larsh KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 27DOWNS
12 plays · 63 yds · 3:041% → 1%
Q4 9:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
98.9%
Michael Kern pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:16
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
98.9%
Michael Kern pass incomplete to Taylor MorinSimilar
Q4 9:00
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+22
98.9%
Michael Kern pass complete to Jaquarii Roberson for 22 yds to the WFrst 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:35
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-5
98.8%
Michael Kern sacked by Aaron Witt for a loss of 5 yards to the WFrst 42 Michael Kern fumbled, recovered by WFrstSimilar
Q4 8:00
2ND & 15
OWN 42
+7
99.0%
Michael Kern run for 7 yds to the WFrst 49Similar
Q4 7:35
3RD & 8
OWN 49
0
98.9%
Michael Kern pass incomplete to A.T. PerrySimilar
Q4 7:25
4TH & 8
OWN 49
+39
99.0%
Michael Kern pass complete to Jaquarii Roberson for 39 yds to the Wisc 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
98.8%
Michael Kern run for no gain to the Wisc 12Similar
Q4 6:28
2ND & 10
OPP 12
0
99.0%
Michael Kern pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:22
3RD & 10
OPP 12
0
99.1%
Michael Kern pass incomplete to Jaquarii Roberson, broken up by Deron HarrellSimilar
Q4 6:15
4TH & 10
OPP 12
0
99.2%
Michael Kern pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 28PUNT
8 plays · 7 yds · 3:53100% → 100%
Q4 6:07
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+5
99.6%
Jalen Berger run for 5 yds to the Wisc 17Similar
Q4 5:35
2ND & 5
OWN 17
+4
99.7%
Jalen Berger run for 4 yds to the Wisc 21Similar
Q4 4:45
3RD & 1
OWN 21
+2
99.7%
John Chenal run for 2 yds to the Wisc 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:52
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
99.7%
Jalen Berger run for no gain to the Wisc 23Similar
Q4 3:15
2ND & 10
OWN 23
-5
99.7%
Jalen Berger run for a loss of 5 yards to the Wisc 18Similar
Q4 2:30
3RD & 15
OWN 18
+1
99.8%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Jack Dunn for 1 yd to the Wisc 19Similar
Q4 2:14
4TH & 14
OWN 19
+9
99.8%
Andy Vujnovich punt for 49 yds , Taylor Morin returns for 9 yds to the WFrst 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 29TD
16 plays · 59 yds · 2:031% → 3%
Q4 2:09
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
99.4%
Mitch Griffis pass incomplete to A.T. PerrySimilar
Q4 2:05
2ND & 10
OWN 41
0
99.4%
Mitch Griffis pass incomplete to Jaquarii RobersonSimilar
Q4 1:50
3RD & 10
OWN 41
+14
99.4%
Mitch Griffis pass complete to Jaquarii Roberson for 14 yds to the Wisc 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:40
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+14
99.4%
Mitch Griffis pass complete to Taylor Morin for 14 yds to the Wisc 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:29
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
99.3%
Mitch Griffis pass incomplete to Taylor MorinSimilar
Q4 1:25
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+13
99.3%
Griffis, Mitch pass incomplete to Morin, Taylor, PENALTY WISCONSIN pass interference 13 yards to the WISCONSIN18, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN WAKEFOREST.Similar
Q4 1:10
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+6
99.3%
Christian Beal-Smith run for 6 yds to the Wisc 12Similar
Q4 0:54
2ND & 4
OPP 12
0
99.3%
Mitch Griffis pass incomplete to Jaquarii RobersonSimilar
Q4 0:50
3RD & 4
OPP 12
+4
99.3%
Christian Beal-Smith run for 4 yds to the Wisc 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
99.3%
Mitch Griffis pass incomplete to Taylor MorinSimilar
Q4 0:29
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+5
99.3%
Christian Beal-Smith run for 5 yds to the Wisc 3Similar
Q4 0:12
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
99.4%
Griffis, Mitch pass incomplete to Morin, Taylor, PENALTY WISCONSIN pass interference (Engram, Dean) 1 yards to the WISCONSIN2, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN WAKEFOREST.Similar
Q4 0:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
99.3%
Christian Beal-Smith run for 1 yd to the Wisc 1Similar
Q4 0:06
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
96.6%
Christian Beal-Smith run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jack Crane KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 30END OF GAME
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 0:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
99.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Wisc 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 1:20
Graham Mertz pass complete to Mason Stokke for 14 yds for a TD, (Collin Larsh KICK)
+17
TD · Q3 8:46
Graham Mertz run for 1 yd for a TD, (Collin Larsh KICK)
+16.5
TD · Q3 11:11
Sam Hartman pass complete to Jaquarii Roberson for 8 yds for a TD, (Jack Crane KICK)
-14.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com