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TEX

Texas 55 at Colorado 23

COLO
2020 · Valero Alamo Bowl · Dec 29, 2020 · Alamodome
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Win probability · COLO
modelCOLO aheadTEX aheadconfidence bandkey playCOLO scoreTEX score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGFGTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 5:15 · Josh Watts punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Texas 39
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+57.0+28.50−28.5−57.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 185Home team on offense−54.9Pregame prior−2.6Score differential−42.9Garbage-time factor−21.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−5.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−13.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 6:58: Jarek Broussard run for 2 yds for a TD (Evan Price KICK) — COLO win probability +6.8 pts (now 28%) (top driver: COLO has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 14:23: Casey Thompson pass complete to Joshua Moore for 13 yds for a TD TEXAS Penalty, False Start (Keondre Coburn) to the Colo 8 (Cameron Dicker KICK) — TEX win probability +9.6 pts (now 85%) (top driver: TEX has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 8:00: Casey Thompson pass complete to Joshua Moore for 25 yds for a TD (Cameron Dicker KICK) — TEX win probability +6.9 pts (now 95%) (top driver: TEX has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 1:46: Jarek Broussard run for 3 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — COLO win probability +6.9 pts (now 11%) (top driver: COLO has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 11:48: Brendon Lewis run for 2 yds for a TD (Evan Price KICK) — COLO win probability +5.1 pts (now 6%) (top driver: COLO has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
COLO made the numbers' call on 9 of 12TEX made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
  1. Q1 13:41COLO 4th & 8 at COLO 27, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.5%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:15COLO 4th & 9 at COLO 26, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.2%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.3%
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:29TEX 4th & 1 at COLO 39, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 69.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    69.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    69.0%−0.5
    36% to make
    Punt
    69.1%−0.4
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:36COLO 4th & 5 at TEX 46, down 14
    Close callPunted · 27.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.1%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    27.4%−0.7
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    28.1%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q1 2:40TEX 4th & 11 at TEX 15, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.1%−1.1
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.3%
    average punt
  6. Q1 1:03TEX 4th & 6 at COLO 28, up 14
    Close callKicked a field goal · 73.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.6%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    73.5%−<0.1
    60% to make
    Punt
    70.2%−3.3
    average punt
  7. Q2 13:24COLO 4th & 4 at COLO 45, down 14
    Close callPunted · 26.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.9%−0.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 12:09TEX 4th & 12 at TEX 18, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.4%−1.4
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.8%
    average punt
  9. Q2 6:58COLO 4th & 2 at TEX 2, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 24.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    24.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    23.3%−0.7
    94% to make
    Punt
    20.3%−3.7
    average punt
  10. Q2 6:10TEX 4th & 3 at TEX 32, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.8%−0.4
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.2%
    average punt
  11. Q2 4:04COLO 4th & 6 at COLO 26, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.7%−0.7
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.4%
    average punt
  12. Q2 2:07TEX 4th & 24 at COLO 35, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 70.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.9%−1.5
    7% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    70.3%
    45% to make
    Punt
    69.4%−1.0
    average punt
  13. Q2 0:43COLO 4th & 17 at TEX 22, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 25.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.0%−1.4
    13% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    25.4%
    72% to make
    Punt
    22.1%−3.4
    average punt
  14. Q3 12:08COLO 4th & 1 at TEX 28, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 21.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    20.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    19.2%−1.8
    60% to make
    Punt
    15.1%−5.8
    average punt
  15. Q3 10:10COLO 4th & 2 at TEX 19, down 14
    Close callKicked a field goal · 20.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.2%
    56% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    19.5%−0.7
    77% to make
    Punt
    15.0%−5.2
    average punt
  16. Q3 6:52COLO 4th & 12 at COLO 14, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.9%−1.6
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.5%
    average punt
  17. Q3 3:33TEX 4th & 14 at COLO 17, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 96.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.2%−0.8
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    96.0%
    80% to make
    Punt
    93.5%−2.5
    average punt
  18. Q4 10:03COLO 4th & 11 at COLO 24, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.3%−0.3
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.6%
    average punt
  19. Q4 8:38TEX 4th & 9 at COLO 43, up 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.4%−<0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    99.3%−0.1
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    99.4%
    average punt
  20. Q4 5:15COLO 4th & 9 at COLO 29, down 32
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−<0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  21. Q4 0:02TEX 4th & 3 at COLO 22, up 32
    Close callWent for it · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.8%−0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    99.9%
    72% to make
    Punt
    99.6%−0.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
COLO made the numbers' call on 1 of 3TEX made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
  1. Q1 12:51TEX Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 5:28TEX Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 6:58COLO Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    29.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    29.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 14:23TEX Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 8:00TEX Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 1:46COLO Touchdown, down 18 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    7.2%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    7.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 14:42TEX Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 11:48COLO Touchdown, down 19 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    3.9%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    4.0%
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 11:01TEX Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 7:40TEX Touchdown, up 31 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
COLODrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:1223% → 23%
Q1 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
22.6%
Sam Noyer pass complete to K.D. Nixon for 3 yds to the Colo 28Similar
Q1 14:28
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-1
22.8%
Jarek Broussard run for a loss of 1 yard to the Colo 27Similar
Q1 13:53
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
23.1%
Sam Noyer pass incomplete to Dimitri StanleySimilar
Q1 13:41
4TH & 8
OWN 27
-6
23.1%
Josh Watts punt for 41 yds , D'Shawn Jamison returns for a loss of 6 yards to the Texas 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 2TD
4 plays · 74 yds · 0:4277% → 77%
Q1 13:33
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+27
23.2%
Bijan Robinson run for 27 yds to the Colo 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:22
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+39
23.2%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Joshua Moore for 39 yds to the Colo 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
23.3%
Sam Ehlinger pass incomplete to Brenden SchoolerSimilar
Q1 12:51
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
22.9%
Bijan Robinson run for 8 yds for a TD (Cameron Dicker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:2823% → 23%
Q1 12:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
23.1%
Jarek Broussard run for 1 yd to the Colo 26Similar
Q1 12:31
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
23.1%
Sam Noyer pass incomplete to Brenden RiceSimilar
Q1 12:26
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
23.0%
Sam Noyer pass incomplete to Brenden RiceSimilar
Q1 12:15
4TH & 9
OWN 26
+3
23.0%
Josh Watts punt for 35 yds , D'Shawn Jamison returns for 3 yds to the Texas 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 4DOWNS
8 plays · 19 yds · 2:4077% → 76%
Q1 12:09
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+1
23.0%
Roschon Johnson run for 1 yd to the Texas 43Similar
Q1 11:43
2ND & 9
OWN 43
+5
23.1%
COLORADO Penalty, Defensive Offside (Janaz Jordan) to the Texas 48Similar
Q1 11:26
2ND & 4
OWN 48
+2
23.1%
Roschon Johnson run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 11:08
3RD & 2
50
+2
23.1%
Roschon Johnson run for 2 yds to the Colo 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:49
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+5
23.1%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Joshua Moore for 5 yds to the Colo 43Similar
Q1 10:30
2ND & 5
OPP 43
+3
23.1%
Roschon Johnson run for 3 yds to the Colo 40Similar
Q1 10:08
3RD & 2
OPP 40
+1
23.3%
Sam Ehlinger run for 1 yd to the Colo 39Similar
Q1 9:29
4TH & 1
OPP 39
0
23.6%
Roschon Johnson run for no gain to the Colo 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 5INT
5 plays · 28 yds · 1:1624% → 25%
Q1 9:21
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
24.0%
Jarek Broussard run for no gain to the Colo 39Similar
Q1 8:53
2ND & 10
OWN 39
0
23.9%
Sam Noyer pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:45
3RD & 10
OWN 39
+26
23.8%
Sam Noyer pass complete to Maurice Bell for 26 yds to the Texas 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:29
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+2
24.7%
Jarek Broussard run for 2 yds to the Texas 33Similar
Q1 8:05
2ND & 8
OPP 33
0
24.8%
Sam Noyer pass intercepted DeMarvion Overshown return for no gain to the Texas 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 6TD
6 plays · 89 yds · 2:3076% → 79%
Q1 7:58
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+5
23.9%
Bijan Robinson run for 5 yds to the Texas 16Similar
Q1 7:22
2ND & 5
OWN 16
+6
23.9%
Sam Ehlinger run for 6 yds to the Texas 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:54
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+1
24.0%
Bijan Robinson run for 1 yd to the Texas 23Similar
Q1 6:16
2ND & 9
OWN 23
+50
24.2%
Bijan Robinson run for 50 yds to the Colo 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:59
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+13
23.5%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Al'Vonte Woodard for 13 yds to the Colo 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:28
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
21.0%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Bijan Robinson for 14 yds for a TD (Cameron Dicker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 7PUNT
7 plays · 29 yds · 1:4522% → 22%
Q1 5:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
22.1%
Jarek Broussard run for 7 yds to the Colo 32Similar
Q1 5:06
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+17
22.4%
Jarek Broussard run for 17 yds to the Colo 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:46
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+3
22.7%
Jarek Broussard run for 3 yds to the Texas 48Similar
Q1 4:16
2ND & 7
OPP 48
+2
22.8%
Sam Noyer pass complete to Jarek Broussard for 2 yds to the Texas 46Similar
Q1 3:47
3RD & 5
OPP 46
0
22.8%
Sam Noyer pass incomplete to Dimitri Stanley, broken up by Alfred CollinsSimilar
Q1 3:36
4TH & 5
OPP 46
0
22.0%
Josh Watts punt for 30 yds, downed at the Texas 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:4979% → 79%
Q1 3:29
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
21.2%
Sam Ehlinger pass incomplete to Joshua MooreSimilar
Q1 3:21
2ND & 10
OWN 16
-1
21.2%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Jordan Whittington for a loss of 1 yard to the Texas 15Similar
Q1 2:50
3RD & 11
OWN 15
0
21.3%
Sam Ehlinger pass incomplete to Marcus WashingtonSimilar
Q1 2:40
4TH & 11
OWN 15
+2
21.4%
Cameron Dicker punt for 53 yds , Dimitri Stanley returns for 2 yds to the Colo 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 9INT
3 plays · 0 yds · 0:1422% → 21%
Q1 2:35
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
21.5%
Sam Noyer pass incomplete to Daniel AriasSimilar
Q1 2:27
2ND & 10
OWN 34
0
21.5%
Sam Noyer pass incomplete to Daniel Arias, broken up by Josh ThompsonSimilar
Q1 2:21
3RD & 10
OWN 34
0
21.3%
Sam Noyer pass intercepted Alfred Collins return for no gain to the Colo 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 10MISSED FG
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:0980% → 79%
Q1 2:12
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-7
20.4%
Roschon Johnson run for a loss of 7 yards to the Colo 39Similar
Q1 1:42
2ND & 17
OPP 39
+11
20.5%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Brenden Schooler for 11 yds to the Colo 28Similar
Q1 1:08
3RD & 6
OPP 28
0
20.4%
Sam Ehlinger pass incomplete to Joshua Moore, broken up by Mekhi BlackmonSimilar
Q1 1:03
4TH & 6
OPP 28
+45
20.7%
Cameron Dicker 45 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 11PUNT
7 plays · 17 yds · 2:3421% → 22%
Q1 0:58
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
21.4%
K.D. Nixon run for 5 yds to the Colo 33Similar
Q1 0:38
2ND & 5
OWN 33
+3
21.6%
Jarek Broussard run for 3 yds to the Colo 36Similar
Q2 14:55
3RD & 2
OWN 36
+3
21.6%
Jarek Broussard run for 3 yds to the Colo 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:29
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
22.0%
Sam Noyer run for 5 yds to the Colo 44Similar
Q2 14:11
2ND & 5
OWN 44
+1
22.1%
Sam Noyer run for 1 yd to the Colo 45Similar
Q2 13:35
3RD & 4
OWN 45
0
21.7%
Sam Noyer pass incomplete to Brenden RiceSimilar
Q2 13:24
4TH & 4
OWN 45
0
21.6%
Josh Watts punt for 55 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 1:0880% → 80%
Q2 13:17
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
20.1%
Sam Ehlinger run for 1 yd to the Texas 21Similar
Q2 12:41
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+2
20.0%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Jordan Whittington for 2 yds to the Texas 23Similar
Q2 12:18
3RD & 7
OWN 23
0
20.2%
Sam Ehlinger pass incomplete to Joshua Moore, broken up by Christian GonzalezSimilar
Q2 12:18
4TH & 7
OWN 23
-5
20.5%
TEXAS Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Texas 18Similar
Q2 12:09
4TH & 12
OWN 18
+32
20.5%
Cameron Dicker punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Dimitri Stanley at the COLORADO 40 TEXAS Penalty, Defensive Holding (Justin Mader) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 13TD
12 plays · 50 yds · 5:0621% → 28%
Q2 12:04
1ST & 10
50
0
21.3%
Jarek Broussard run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 11:31
2ND & 10
50
+7
21.2%
Brendon Lewis run for 7 yds to the Texas 43Similar
Q2 10:57
3RD & 3
OPP 43
+13
21.2%
Jarek Broussard run for 13 yds to the Texas 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:32
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-5
21.5%
COLORADO Penalty, False Start (Casey Roddick) to the Texas 35Similar
Q2 10:14
1ST & 15
OPP 35
+4
21.5%
Jarek Broussard run for 4 yds to the Texas 31Similar
Q2 9:40
2ND & 11
OPP 31
+3
21.3%
Brendon Lewis run for 3 yds to the Texas 28Similar
Q2 9:04
3RD & 8
OPP 28
+26
20.8%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Dimitri Stanley for 26 yds to the Texas 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
21.2%
Joe Davis run for no gain to the Texas 2Similar
Q2 8:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
21.4%
Brendon Lewis run for no gain to the Texas 2Similar
Q2 7:42
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
0
20.8%
Jarek Broussard run for no gain to the Texas 2Similar
Q2 6:58
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
27.6%
Jarek Broussard run for 2 yds for a TD (Evan Price KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:4174% → 74%
Q2 6:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
25.7%
Roschon Johnson run for 2 yds to the Texas 27Similar
Q2 6:35
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+5
25.7%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Al'Vonte Woodard for 5 yds to the Texas 32Similar
Q2 6:20
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
25.6%
Sam Ehlinger pass incomplete to Kelvontay DixonSimilar
Q2 6:10
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
26.4%
Cameron Dicker punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Dimitri Stanley at the Colo 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:5826% → 24%
Q2 6:02
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+1
26.4%
Jarek Broussard run for 1 yd to the Colo 23Similar
Q2 5:29
2ND & 9
OWN 23
+4
26.4%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to K.D. Nixon for 4 yds to the Colo 27Similar
Q2 4:47
3RD & 5
OWN 27
-1
24.9%
Brendon Lewis run for a loss of 1 yard to the Colo 26Similar
Q2 4:04
4TH & 6
OWN 26
0
24.2%
Josh Watts punt for 60 yds , D'Shawn Jamison returns for no gain to the Texas 26 TEXAS Penalty, Offensive Holding (B.J. Foster) to the Texas 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 16FG
6 plays · 58 yds · 1:4674% → 76%
Q2 3:53
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+34
26.0%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Jordan Whittington for 34 yds to the Texas 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:37
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+38
24.0%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Cade Brewer for 38 yds to the Colo 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:22
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-1
22.5%
Bijan Robinson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Colo 22Similar
Q2 2:37
2ND & 11
OPP 22
-3
22.4%
Sam Ehlinger sacked by Carson Wells for a loss of 3 yards to the Colo 25Similar
Q2 2:13
3RD & 14
OPP 25
-10
23.3%
Sam Ehlinger sacked by Mustafa Johnson for a loss of 10 yards to the Colo 35Similar
Q2 2:07
4TH & 24
OPP 35
+53
23.9%
Cameron Dicker 53 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 17FG
11 plays · 53 yds · 1:1622% → 26%
Q2 1:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
22.4%
Sam Noyer pass complete to Daniel Arias for 17 yds to the Colo 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:53
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
23.5%
Sam Noyer pass incomplete to Daniel AriasSimilar
Q2 1:43
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+15
22.5%
Sam Noyer run for 15 yds to the Texas 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:34
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+28
23.7%
Sam Noyer pass complete to Dimitri Stanley for 28 yds to the Texas 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:27
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+2
24.3%
Jarek Broussard run for 2 yds to the Texas 13Similar
Q2 0:59
2ND & 8
OPP 13
0
24.3%
Sam Noyer pass incomplete to Matt LynchSimilar
Q2 0:50
3RD & 8
OPP 13
-9
23.3%
Sam Noyer sacked by Vernon Broughton for a loss of 9 yards to the Texas 22Similar
Q2 0:43
4TH & 17
OPP 22
+40
25.6%
Evan Price 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 18END OF HALF
2 plays · 6 yds · 0:0075% → 75%
Q2 0:29
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+6
24.9%
Roschon Johnson run for 6 yds to the Texas 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 19TD
3 plays · 79 yds · 0:1775% → 85%
Q3 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+66
24.7%
Bijan Robinson run for 66 yds to the Colo 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:23
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
15.1%
Casey Thompson pass complete to Joshua Moore for 13 yds for a TD TEXAS Penalty, False Start (Keondre Coburn) to the Colo 8 (Cameron Dicker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 20MISSED FG
12 plays · 61 yds · 3:5917% → 17%
Q3 14:09
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+22
17.2%
Sam Noyer pass complete to Dimitri Stanley for 7 yds to the Colo 27 for a 1ST down TEXAS Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Hudson Card) to the Colo 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:53
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+11
18.5%
Sam Noyer pass complete to Jarek Broussard for 11 yds to the Texas 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:24
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+10
18.9%
Noyer, Sam pass incomplete to Bell, Maurice, PENALTY TEXAS holding (Thompson, Josh) 10 yards to the TEXAS37, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN COLORADO.Similar
Q3 13:15
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
18.7%
Jarek Broussard run for no gain to the Texas 37Similar
Q3 12:44
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+6
18.0%
Sam Noyer run for 6 yds to the Texas 31Similar
Q3 12:31
3RD & 4
OPP 31
+3
18.1%
Jarek Broussard run for 3 yds to the Texas 28Similar
Q3 12:08
4TH & 1
OPP 28
+1
18.0%
Sam Noyer run for 1 yd to the Texas 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:35
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
18.6%
Sam Noyer pass incomplete to K.D. Nixon, broken up by D'Shawn JamisonSimilar
Q3 11:28
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+1
18.2%
Jarek Broussard run for 1 yd to the Texas 26Similar
Q3 10:51
3RD & 9
OPP 26
+7
17.5%
Sam Noyer pass complete to K.D. Nixon for 7 yds to the Texas 19Similar
Q3 10:10
4TH & 2
OPP 19
+37
17.3%
Evan Price 37 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 21TD
7 plays · 80 yds · 2:0486% → 95%
Q3 10:04
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+15
13.8%
Robinson, Bijan rush for loss of 3 yards to the TEXAS17, PENALTY COLORADO face mask (Jordan, Janaz) 15 yards to the TEXAS35, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TEXAS.Similar
Q3 9:37
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
13.5%
Casey Thompson pass incomplete to Marcus Washington, broken up by Mekhi BlackmonSimilar
Q3 9:29
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+4
13.5%
Casey Thompson pass complete to Joshua Moore for 4 yds to the Texas 39Similar
Q3 9:05
3RD & 6
OWN 39
+21
12.9%
Casey Thompson pass complete to Cade Brewer for 21 yds to the Colo 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:46
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
12.4%
Casey Thompson run for no gain to the Colo 40Similar
Q3 8:09
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+15
12.1%
Thompson, Casey pass incomplete to Washington, Marcus, PENALTY COLORADO pass interference (Blackmon, Mekhi) 15 yards to the COLORADO25, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TEXAS.Similar
Q3 8:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+25
5.2%
Casey Thompson pass complete to Joshua Moore for 25 yds for a TD (Cameron Dicker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 22PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 0:577% → 7%
Q3 7:49
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-2
7.2%
Sam Noyer run for a loss of 2 yards to the Colo 14Similar
Q3 7:13
2ND & 12
OWN 14
0
7.0%
Sam Noyer pass incomplete to Dimitri StanleySimilar
Q3 7:05
3RD & 12
OWN 14
0
6.9%
Sam Noyer pass incomplete to K.D. NixonSimilar
Q3 6:52
4TH & 12
OWN 14
+2
6.8%
Josh Watts punt for 48 yds , D'Shawn Jamison returns for 2 yds to the Texas 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 23FG
7 plays · 43 yds · 3:1196% → 97%
Q3 6:44
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
4.0%
Bijan Robinson run for 4 yds to the Texas 44Similar
Q3 6:24
2ND & 6
OWN 44
+22
3.6%
Casey Thompson run for 22 yds to the Colo 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:03
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+21
3.3%
Bijan Robinson run for 21 yds to the Colo 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:47
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+2
3.2%
Casey Thompson run for 2 yds to the Colo 11Similar
Q3 5:00
2ND & 8
OPP 11
+1
3.1%
Casey Thompson pass complete to Roschon Johnson for 1 yd to the Colo 10Similar
Q3 4:11
3RD & 7
OPP 10
-7
3.0%
Casey Thompson sacked by Carson Wells for a loss of 7 yards to the Colo 17Similar
Q3 3:33
4TH & 14
OPP 17
+35
2.9%
Cameron Dicker 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 24TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:414% → 11%
Q3 3:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
3.8%
Jarek Broussard run for 2 yds to the Colo 27Similar
Q3 2:59
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+25
3.7%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Dimitri Stanley for 25 yds to the Texas 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:43
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+1
3.9%
Jarek Broussard run for 1 yd to the Texas 47Similar
Q3 2:07
2ND & 9
OPP 47
+44
3.7%
Brendon Lewis run for 44 yds to the Texas 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
10.6%
Jarek Broussard run for 3 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 25TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 1:4795% → 99%
Q3 1:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
5.1%
Bijan Robinson run for 2 yds to the Texas 27Similar
Q3 0:55
2ND & 8
OWN 47
+35
4.6%
Jordan Whittington run for 20 yds to the Colo 47 for a 1ST down COLORADO Penalty, Illegal Block (Christian Gonzalez) to the Colo 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:39
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+5
4.5%
COLORADO Penalty, Defensive Offside (Janaz Jordan) to the Colo 33Similar
Q3 0:06
1ST & 5
OPP 33
+10
4.3%
Casey Thompson pass complete to Al'Vonte Woodard for 10 yds to the Colo 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
4.2%
Casey Thompson pass incomplete to Joshua Moore, broken up by Christian GonzalezSimilar
Q4 14:42
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+23
0.8%
Casey Thompson pass complete to Bijan Robinson for 23 yds for a TD (Cameron Dicker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 26TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 2:421% → 6%
Q4 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
0.7%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Montana Lemonious-Craig for 15 yds to the Colo 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:08
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
0.7%
Jarek Broussard run for 4 yds to the Colo 44Similar
Q4 13:42
2ND & 6
OWN 44
+15
0.7%
Lewis, Brendon pass incomplete to Rice, Brenden, PENALTY TEXAS pass interference (Barron, Jahdae) 15 yards to the TEXAS41, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN COLORADO.Similar
Q4 13:33
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+16
0.7%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to K.D. Nixon for 16 yds to the Texas 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:11
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+9
0.8%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to K.D. Nixon for 9 yds to the Texas 16Similar
Q4 12:55
2ND & 1
OPP 16
+6
0.8%
Jarek Broussard run for 6 yds to the Texas 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+1
0.7%
Jarek Broussard run for 1 yd to the Texas 9Similar
Q4 11:54
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+7
0.7%
Lewis, Brendon pass incomplete to Bell, Maurice, PENALTY TEXAS pass interference (Cook, Anthony) 7 yards to the TEXAS2, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN COLORADO.Similar
Q4 11:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
5.8%
Brendon Lewis run for 2 yds for a TD (Evan Price KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 27TD
3 plays · 75 yds · 0:4196% → 99%
Q4 11:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
3.9%
Roschon Johnson run for 2 yds to the Texas 27Similar
Q4 11:01
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+73
0.6%
Casey Thompson pass complete to Kelvontay Dixon for 73 yds for a TD (Cameron Dicker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 28PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:501% → 0%
Q4 10:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
0.5%
Jarek Broussard run for a loss of 1 yard to the Colo 24Similar
Q4 10:23
2ND & 11
OWN 24
0
0.5%
Brendon Lewis pass incomplete to K.D. NixonSimilar
Q4 10:16
3RD & 11
OWN 24
0
0.5%
Brendon Lewis pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:03
4TH & 11
OWN 24
0
0.4%
Josh Watts punt for 42 yds, fair catch by D'Shawn Jamison at the Texas 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 29PUNT
6 plays · 23 yds · 1:17100% → 100%
Q4 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+20
0.5%
Hudson Card run for 2 yds to the Colo 44 for a 1ST down Malcolm Epps for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:33
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+1
0.4%
Hudson Card run for 1 yd to the Colo 43Similar
Q4 8:56
2ND & 9
OPP 43
+5
0.4%
Hudson Card pass complete to Kai Money for 5 yds to the Colo 38Similar
Q4 8:42
3RD & 4
OPP 38
0
0.4%
Hudson Card pass incomplete to Cade BrewerSimilar
Q4 8:42
4TH & 4
OPP 38
-5
0.4%
TEXAS Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Colo 43Similar
Q4 8:38
4TH & 9
OPP 43
0
0.4%
Cameron Dicker punt for 36 yds, downed at the Colo 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 30FUMBLE
2 plays · 14 yds · 0:290% → 0%
Q4 8:24
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+9
0.4%
Brendon Lewis run for 9 yds to the Colo 16Similar
Q4 7:55
2ND & 1
OWN 16
+5
0.4%
Jarek Broussard run for 5 yds to the Colo 21 Jarek Broussard fumbled, forced by Jett Bush, recovered by Texas DeMarvion OvershownSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 31TD
1 play · 21 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 7:40
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+21
0.2%
Roschon Johnson run for 21 yds for a TD (Cameron Dicker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 32PUNT
7 plays · 14 yds · 2:080% → 0%
Q4 7:23
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+5
0.2%
Joe Davis run for 5 yds to the Colo 20Similar
Q4 6:49
2ND & 5
OWN 20
+8
0.2%
Brendon Lewis run for 8 yds to the Colo 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:14
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+1
0.2%
Brendon Lewis run for 1 yd to the Colo 29Similar
Q4 5:34
2ND & 9
OWN 29
0
0.1%
Brendon Lewis pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:25
3RD & 9
OWN 29
0
0.1%
Brendon Lewis pass incomplete to Brenden RiceSimilar
Q4 5:15
4TH & 9
OWN 29
0
0.1%
Josh Watts punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Texas 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 33DOWNS
9 plays · 38 yds · 5:05100% → 100%
Q4 5:07
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
0.2%
Gabriel Watson run for 1 yd to the Texas 40Similar
Q4 4:39
2ND & 9
OWN 40
+5
0.2%
Card, Hudson pass incomplete to Akkihal, Kartik, PENALTY COLORADO offside (Jackson, Justin) 5 yards to the TEXAS45, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 4:31
2ND & 4
OWN 45
+15
0.2%
Gabriel Watson run for 15 yds to the Colo 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:48
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+7
0.2%
Gabriel Watson run for 7 yds to the Colo 33Similar
Q4 3:04
2ND & 3
OPP 33
+4
0.1%
Gabriel Watson run for 4 yds to the Colo 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:21
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+2
0.1%
Gabriel Watson run for 2 yds to the Colo 27Similar
Q4 1:35
2ND & 8
OPP 27
+7
0.1%
Ben Ballard run for 7 yds to the Colo 20Similar
Q4 0:50
3RD & 1
OPP 20
-2
0.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Colo 22Similar
Q4 0:02
4TH & 3
OPP 22
-1
0.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Colo 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 14:23
Casey Thompson pass complete to Joshua Moore for 13 yds for a TD TEXAS Penalty, False Start (Keondre Coburn) to the Colo 8 (Cameron Dicker KICK)
-9.6
TD · Q3 8:00
Casey Thompson pass complete to Joshua Moore for 25 yds for a TD (Cameron Dicker KICK)
-6.9
TD · Q3 1:46
Jarek Broussard run for 3 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed )
+6.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com