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OKST

Oklahoma State 37 at Miami 34

MIA
2020 · Cheez-It Bowl · Dec 29, 2020 · Camping World Stadium
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Win probability · MIA
modelMIA aheadOKST aheadconfidence bandkey playMIA scoreOKST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGFGTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 1:20 · Tom Hutton punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Gurvan Hall Jr. at the MiaFl 10
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remainingPregame prior
+30.5+15.30−15.3−30.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 83Home team on offense−11.4Score differential−5.6Garbage-time factor−2.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−1.7Pregame prior−1.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 8:45: Cam'Ron Harris run for 42 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — MIA win probability +16.8 pts (now 53%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
  2. TD · Q4 14:19: Spencer Sanders pass complete to Dillon Stoner for 5 yds for a TD (Brady Pohl KICK) — OKST win probability +14.4 pts (now 87%) (top driver: OKST has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 12:03: N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Brevin Jordan for 1 yd for a TD (Jose Borregales KICK) — MIA win probability +21.0 pts (now 45%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
  4. TD · Q4 9:55: Spencer Sanders pass complete to Brennan Presley for 16 yds for a TD (Brady Pohl PAT MISSED) — OKST win probability +15.1 pts (now 91%) (top driver: OKST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 5:39: N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Mike Harley for 5 yds for a TD (M. Few Run For Two-point Conversion) — MIA win probability +33.7 pts (now 49%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MIA made the numbers' call on 8 of 9OKST made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q1 11:39OKST 4th & 6 at MIA 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 50.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    50.5%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    50.5%−<0.1
    56% to make
    Punt
    50.4%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:14MIA 4th & 3 at MIA 41, down 7
    Close callPunted · 47.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:13MIA 4th & 2 at MIA 49, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 42.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    42.6%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    41.9%−0.7
    average punt
  4. Q2 8:41OKST 4th & 13 at MIA 16, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 66.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.1%−2.0
    18% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    66.1%
    81% to make
    Punt
    58.8%−7.3
    average punt
  5. Q2 3:55MIA 4th & 5 at OKST 5, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 32.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.8%−<0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    31.8%
    92% to make
    Punt
    27.9%−3.9
    average punt
  6. Q2 1:44OKST 4th & 15 at OKST 20, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.1%−1.8
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.9%
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:20OKST 4th & 10 at MIA 41, up 11
    Close callPunted · 67.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.0%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    66.9%−0.1
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    66.8%−0.2
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:05MIA 4th & 4 at MIA 32, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.3%−0.5
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.8%
    average punt
  9. Q3 13:25MIA 4th & 10 at OKST 23, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 32.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.9%−1.0
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    31.9%
    70% to make
    Punt
    26.8%−5.1
    average punt
  10. Q3 11:41OKST 4th & 12 at OKST 20, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.5%−1.8
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.3%
    average punt
  11. Q3 10:00MIA 4th & 1 at MIA 41, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 34.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    35.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    33.1%−2.1
    average punt
  12. Q3 2:57OKST 4th & 9 at MIA 9, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 55.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.2%−2.6
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    53.8%
    89% to make
    Punt
    36.9%−17.0
    average punt
  13. Q4 12:45MIA 4th & 3 at OKST 46, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 19.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    20.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    17.6%−2.6
    23% to make
    Punt
    18.9%−1.3
    average punt
  14. Q4 7:15MIA 4th & 1 at MIA 48, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 14.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    14.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    11.4%−2.7
    average punt
  15. Q4 4:34OKST 4th & 9 at OKST 26, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.5%−5.2
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.7%
    average punt
  16. Q4 4:14MIA 4th & 10 at MIA 19, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.9%−0.2
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.1%
    average punt
  17. Q4 3:14OKST 4th & 6 at OKST 34, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.7%−2.4
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.2%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MIA made the numbers' call on 2 of 4OKST made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 11:39OKST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    51.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 5:25OKST Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 0:56OKST Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 14:14MIA Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    38.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    38.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 8:45MIA Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    50.7%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    50.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 14:19OKST Touchdown, up 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 12:03MIA Touchdown, down 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    31.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    30.7%−0.3
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 9:55OKST Touchdown, up 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    86.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 5:39MIA Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    26.5%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    26.2%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
OKSTDrive 1TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 3:1252% → 53%
Q1 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
47.8%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Tylan Wallace for 14 yds to the OKSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:31
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
47.8%
Spencer Sanders pass incomplete to Landon WolfSimilar
Q1 14:28
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+5
47.8%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Landon Wolf for 5 yds to the OKSt 44Similar
Q1 14:10
3RD & 5
OWN 44
+6
47.9%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Landon Wolf for 6 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:30
1ST & 10
50
+9
47.9%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Tylan Wallace for 9 yds to the MiaFl 41Similar
Q1 13:10
2ND & 1
OPP 41
+7
47.9%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Tylan Wallace for 7 yds to the MiaFl 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:49
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-2
47.9%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to LD Brown for a loss of 2 yards to the MiaFl 36Similar
Q1 12:25
2ND & 12
OPP 36
+6
48.0%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Dillon Stoner for 6 yds to the MiaFl 30Similar
Q1 11:46
3RD & 6
OPP 30
0
48.1%
Spencer Sanders pass incomplete to Brennan PresleySimilar
Q1 11:39
4TH & 6
OPP 30
+30
47.1%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Brennan Presley for 30 yds for a TD (Brady Pohl KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 2PUNT
8 plays · 21 yds · 2:1647% → 47%
Q1 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
47.2%
D'Eriq King run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 22Similar
Q1 11:08
2ND & 8
OWN 22
-1
47.1%
Cam'Ron Harris run for a loss of 1 yard to the MiaFl 21Similar
Q1 10:45
3RD & 9
OWN 21
+13
46.9%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Cam'Ron Harris for 13 yds to the MiaFl 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:26
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
47.1%
D'Eriq King pass incomplete to Mark PopeSimilar
Q1 10:20
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+8
47.0%
Cam'Ron Harris run for 8 yds to the MiaFl 42Similar
Q1 10:00
3RD & 2
OWN 42
-1
47.3%
D'Eriq King run for a loss of 1 yard to the MiaFl 41Similar
Q1 9:14
4TH & 3
OWN 41
0
46.7%
Lou Hedley punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Dillon Stoner at the OKSt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 3TD
9 plays · 82 yds · 3:4553% → 59%
Q1 9:10
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+7
46.7%
Spencer Sanders run for 7 yds to the OKSt 25Similar
Q1 8:55
2ND & 3
OWN 25
+9
46.3%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Dillon Stoner for 9 yds to the OKSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:22
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+17
46.1%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Landon Wolf for 17 yds to the MiaFl 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:50
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
45.6%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Tylan Wallace for 5 yds to the MiaFl 44Similar
Q1 7:06
2ND & 5
OPP 44
+5
45.2%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Tylan Wallace for 5 yds to the MiaFl 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:20
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+29
45.0%
Dezmon Jackson run for 29 yds to the MiaFl 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
44.8%
LD Brown run for no gain to the MiaFl 10Similar
Q1 5:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+8
44.6%
Sanders, Spencer pass incomplete to Wolf, Landon, PENALTY MIAMI pass interference (Hall Jr., Gurvan) 8 yards to the MIAMI2, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN OKLAST.Similar
Q1 5:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
41.1%
LD Brown run for 2 yds for a TD (Brady Pohl KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 4DOWNS
6 plays · 24 yds · 2:0743% → 41%
Q1 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
42.5%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Brevin Jordan for 16 yds to the MiaFl 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:04
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
43.1%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Mike Harley for 4 yds to the MiaFl 45Similar
Q1 4:40
2ND & 6
OWN 45
+1
43.0%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Mike Harley for 1 yd to the MiaFl 46Similar
Q1 4:00
3RD & 5
OWN 46
+3
42.7%
D'Eriq King run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 49Similar
Q1 3:13
4TH & 2
OWN 49
0
41.3%
D'Eriq King pass incomplete to Brevin Jordan, broken up by Christian HolmesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 5TD
6 plays · 49 yds · 2:1461% → 70%
Q1 3:10
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
39.5%
Spencer Sanders pass incomplete to Dillon StonerSimilar
Q1 3:00
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+9
39.4%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Dillon Stoner for 9 yds to the MiaFl 40Similar
Q1 2:45
3RD & 1
OPP 40
+5
39.2%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Tylan Wallace for 5 yds to the MiaFl 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:15
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+2
38.7%
Dominic Richardson run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 33Similar
Q1 1:45
2ND & 8
OPP 33
+1
38.4%
Dominic Richardson run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 32Similar
Q1 0:56
3RD & 7
OPP 32
+32
30.3%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Brennan Presley for 32 yds for a TD (Brady Pohl KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 6TD
6 plays · 68 yds · 1:3132% → 40%
Q1 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+13
31.9%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Brevin Jordan for 13 yds to the MiaFl 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+15
32.6%
Brevin Jordan pass complete to D'Eriq King for 15 yds to the OKSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:15
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+27
32.3%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Donald Chaney Jr. for 27 yds to the OKSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+3
32.4%
D'Eriq King run for 3 yds to the OKSt 10Similar
Q2 14:14
2ND & 7
OPP 10
+10
40.4%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Brevin Jordan for 10 yds for a TD (Jose Borregales KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 7MISSED FG
13 plays · 59 yds · 5:1963% → 67%
Q2 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
36.9%
LD Brown run for 5 yds to the OKSt 30Similar
Q2 13:35
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-5
36.4%
LD Brown run for a loss of 5 yards to the OKSt 25Similar
Q2 13:00
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+14
36.7%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Dillon Stoner for 14 yds to the OKSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+13
35.1%
LD Brown run for 13 yds to the MiaFl 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:05
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
34.8%
Spencer Sanders run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 45Similar
Q2 11:45
2ND & 7
OPP 45
+18
34.1%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Brennan Presley for 18 yds to the MiaFl 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:30
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+14
33.8%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Brennan Presley for 14 yds to the MiaFl 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:45
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+2
33.3%
Dominic Richardson run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 11Similar
Q2 10:05
2ND & 8
OPP 11
+2
32.8%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Tay Martin for 2 yds to the MiaFl 9Similar
Q2 9:30
3RD & 6
OPP 9
-2
32.1%
Dominic Richardson run for a loss of 2 yards to the MiaFl 11Similar
Q2 8:58
4TH & 8
OPP 11
-5
32.8%
OKLAHOMA ST Penalty, False Start (Kody Walterscheid) to the MiaFl 16Similar
Q2 8:41
4TH & 13
OPP 16
+33
32.8%
Brady Pohl 33 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 8FG
15 plays · 75 yds · 4:4034% → 35%
Q2 8:35
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+27
33.6%
Donald Chaney Jr. run for 27 yds to the MiaFl 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
34.7%
D'Eriq King pass incomplete to Dee WigginsSimilar
Q2 7:45
2ND & 10
OWN 47
-2
34.3%
D'Eriq King run for a loss of 2 yards to the MiaFl 45Similar
Q2 7:15
3RD & 12
OWN 45
+12
32.7%
King, D'Eriq pass incomplete to Harley, Mike, PENALTY OKLAST pass interference (Harvell-Peel, Kolby) 12 yards to the OKLAST43, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MIAMI.Similar
Q2 6:45
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+1
33.9%
Cam'Ron Harris run for 1 yd to the OKSt 42Similar
Q2 6:25
2ND & 9
OPP 42
+6
33.6%
D'Eriq King run for 6 yds to the OKSt 36Similar
Q2 5:55
3RD & 3
OPP 36
+18
33.3%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Mike Harley for 18 yds to the OKSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:34
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+9
33.8%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Mike Harley for 9 yds to the OKSt 9Similar
Q2 5:25
2ND & 1
OPP 9
+2
33.7%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Will Mallory for 2 yds to the OKSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-8
33.4%
D'Eriq King run for 2 yds to the OKSt 5 MIAMI FL Penalty, Offensive Holding (Jakai Clark) to the OKSt 15Similar
Q2 4:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 15
+1
33.3%
Mike Harley run for 1 yd to the OKSt 14Similar
Q2 4:06
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
33.0%
D'Eriq King run for 5 yds to the OKSt 9 OKLAHOMA ST Penalty, Defensive Holding (Christian Holmes) to the OKSt 5Similar
Q2 4:04
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
33.0%
N'Kosi Perry pass incomplete to Brevin JordanSimilar
Q2 3:58
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
32.2%
N'Kosi Perry pass incomplete to Cam'Ron HarrisSimilar
Q2 3:55
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+22
35.1%
Jose Borregales 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 9FUMBLE
5 plays · -5 yds · 2:0665% → 65%
Q2 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
34.8%
Dezmon Jackson run for a loss of 2 yards to the OKSt 23Similar
Q2 3:07
2ND & 12
OWN 23
-8
34.7%
Spencer Sanders sacked by Jahfari Harvey for a loss of 8 yards to the OKSt 15 Spencer Sanders fumbled, recovered by OKStSimilar
Q2 2:31
3RD & 20
OWN 15
+5
34.9%
Dezmon Jackson run for 5 yds to the OKSt 20Similar
Q2 1:44
4TH & 15
OWN 20
+2
34.9%
Tom Hutton punt for 41 yds , Mike Harley returns for 2 yds to the MiaFl 41 Mike Harley fumbled, recovered by OKStSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:1768% → 68%
Q2 1:37
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
31.6%
Spencer Sanders pass incomplete to Brennan PresleySimilar
Q2 1:31
2ND & 10
OPP 41
0
31.8%
Spencer Sanders run for no gain to the MiaFl 41Similar
Q2 1:27
3RD & 10
OPP 41
0
32.1%
Spencer Sanders pass incomplete to Logan CarterSimilar
Q2 1:20
4TH & 10
OPP 41
0
31.8%
Tom Hutton punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Gurvan Hall Jr. at the MiaFl 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 11PUNT
6 plays · 22 yds · 1:0932% → 32%
Q2 1:14
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+16
32.4%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Donald Chaney Jr. for 16 yds to the MiaFl 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:07
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
33.1%
N'Kosi Perry pass incomplete to Donald Chaney Jr.Similar
Q2 1:00
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+2
32.7%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Mark Pope for 2 yds to the MiaFl 28Similar
Q2 0:18
3RD & 8
OWN 28
+4
31.1%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Mike Harley for 4 yds to the MiaFl 32Similar
Q2 0:05
4TH & 4
OWN 32
0
32.4%
Lou Hedley punt for 42 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the OKSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 12END OF HALF
1 play · -5 yds · 0:0068% → 68%
Q2 0:04
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-5
31.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the OKSt 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 13FG
10 plays · 41 yds · 1:2033% → 36%
Q3 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
32.7%
Donald Chaney Jr. run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 39Similar
Q3 14:23
2ND & 7
OWN 39
0
32.9%
N'Kosi Perry pass incomplete to Mark PopeSimilar
Q3 14:22
3RD & 7
OWN 39
+5
31.9%
OKLAHOMA ST Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the MiaFl 44Similar
Q3 14:17
3RD & 2
OWN 44
+6
33.0%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Will Mallory for 6 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:00
1ST & 10
50
+27
33.8%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Brevin Jordan for 27 yds to the OKSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:40
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
35.3%
N'Kosi Perry pass incomplete to Dee WigginsSimilar
Q3 13:35
2ND & 10
OPP 23
0
35.2%
N'Kosi Perry pass incomplete to Dee WigginsSimilar
Q3 13:30
3RD & 10
OPP 23
0
33.5%
N'Kosi Perry pass incomplete to Keyshawn SmithSimilar
Q3 13:25
4TH & 10
OPP 23
+40
35.5%
Jose Borregales 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 1:3467% → 65%
Q3 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-5
33.2%
Dezmon Jackson run for a loss of 5 yards to the OKSt 17Similar
Q3 12:55
2ND & 15
OWN 17
-8
33.7%
Spencer Sanders sacked by Bradley Jennings Jr. for a loss of 8 yards to the OKSt 9Similar
Q3 12:20
3RD & 23
OWN 9
+11
34.6%
Spencer Sanders run for 11 yds to the OKSt 20Similar
Q3 11:41
4TH & 12
OWN 20
+60
34.9%
Tom Hutton punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Mike Harley at the MIAMI 35 MIAMI FL Penalty, Illegal Block (15 Yards) to the MiaFl 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 15TD
9 plays · 80 yds · 2:5334% → 53%
Q3 11:38
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+12
33.7%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Mark Pope for 12 yds to the MiaFl 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+9
34.1%
Donald Chaney Jr. run for 9 yds to the MiaFl 41Similar
Q3 11:05
2ND & 1
OWN 41
0
36.5%
N'Kosi Perry pass incomplete to Mike Harley, broken up by Tanner McCalisterSimilar
Q3 11:00
3RD & 1
OWN 41
0
35.8%
Donald Chaney Jr. run for no gain to the MiaFl 41Similar
Q3 10:00
4TH & 1
OWN 41
+1
32.7%
Cam'Ron Harris run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+12
34.4%
Mike Harley run for 12 yds to the OKSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:05
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+4
35.8%
N'Kosi Perry run for 4 yds to the OKSt 42Similar
Q3 8:45
2ND & 6
OPP 42
+42
52.6%
Cam'Ron Harris run for 42 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 16FG
22 plays · 71 yds · 5:3355% → 66%
Q3 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-3
45.0%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Tay Martin for 7 yds to the OKSt 27 OKLAHOMA ST Penalty, Illegal Block (Logan Carter) to the OKSt 17Similar
Q3 8:15
1ST & 13
OWN 17
+3
45.9%
MIAMI FL Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (3 Yards) to the OKSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:10
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-10
45.6%
OKLAHOMA ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the OKSt 10Similar
Q3 7:52
1ST & 20
OWN 10
+1
45.9%
LD Brown run for 1 yd to the OKSt 11Similar
Q3 7:31
2ND & 19
OWN 11
+13
46.3%
Spencer Sanders run for 13 yds to the OKSt 24Similar
Q3 7:10
3RD & 6
OWN 24
+6
46.9%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Tay Martin for 6 yds to the OKSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+12
44.0%
LD Brown run for 12 yds to the OKSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+11
41.9%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Tay Martin for 11 yds to the MiaFl 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:58
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+2
40.2%
Dominic Richardson run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 45Similar
Q3 5:36
2ND & 8
OPP 45
+9
40.3%
Sanders, Spencer pass incomplete to Martin, Tay, PENALTY MIAMI pass interference (Couch, Te'Cory) 9 yards to the MIAMI36, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN OKLAST.Similar
Q3 5:30
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+3
40.1%
Dominic Richardson run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 33Similar
Q3 5:11
2ND & 7
OPP 33
0
38.0%
Spencer Sanders pass incomplete to Dillon StonerSimilar
Q3 5:05
3RD & 7
OPP 33
+12
40.5%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Tay Martin for 12 yds to the MiaFl 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:57
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+6
37.5%
LD Brown run for 6 yds to the MiaFl 15Similar
Q3 4:33
2ND & 4
OPP 15
-3
37.4%
Dezmon Jackson run for a loss of 3 yards to the MiaFl 18Similar
Q3 4:05
3RD & 7
OPP 12
+12
39.0%
Brennan Presley run for 6 yds to the MiaFl 12 for a 1ST down MIAMI FL Penalty, Horse Collar Tackle (Gurvan Hall Jr.) to the MiaFl 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-3
38.5%
Dezmon Jackson run for a loss of 3 yards to the MiaFl 9Similar
Q3 3:05
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
0
38.4%
Spencer Sanders pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:01
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
0
40.9%
Spencer Sanders pass incomplete to Tay MartinSimilar
Q3 2:57
4TH & GOAL
OPP 9
+26
34.3%
Brady Pohl 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 17FUMBLE
4 plays · 27 yds · 0:4736% → 40%
Q3 2:51
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+20
36.0%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Mike Harley for 20 yds to the MiaFl 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+7
37.6%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Dee Wiggins for 7 yds to the MiaFl 45Similar
Q3 2:04
2ND & 3
OWN 45
0
39.7%
N'Kosi Perry run for no gain to the MiaFl 45 N'Kosi Perry fumbled, recovered by OKSt Brock MartinSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 18TD
8 plays · 45 yds · 2:4270% → 87%
Q3 2:01
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
29.7%
Spencer Sanders pass incomplete to Brennan PresleySimilar
Q3 1:56
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+15
29.8%
Sanders, Spencer pass incomplete to Martin, Tay, PENALTY MIAMI pass interference (Couch, Te'Cory) 15 yards to the MIAMI30, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN OKLAST.Similar
Q3 1:45
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
29.0%
LD Brown run for no gain to the MiaFl 30Similar
Q3 1:22
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+14
29.0%
Spencer Sanders run for 14 yds to the MiaFl 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:45
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+8
28.3%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Brennan Presley for 8 yds to the MiaFl 8Similar
Q3 0:23
2ND & 2
OPP 8
+3
28.2%
LD Brown run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
27.8%
Dezmon Jackson run for no gain to the MiaFl 5Similar
Q4 14:19
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
13.4%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Dillon Stoner for 5 yds for a TD (Brady Pohl KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 19TD
9 plays · 80 yds · 2:0719% → 45%
Q4 14:10
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+27
18.8%
Mark Pope run for 12 yds to the MiaFl 32 for a 1ST down OKLAHOMA ST Penalty, Illegal Block (15 Yards) to the MiaFl 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
19.7%
N'Kosi Perry pass incomplete to Brevin JordanSimilar
Q4 13:15
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+8
18.9%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Mike Harley for 8 yds to the OKSt 45Similar
Q4 13:00
3RD & 2
OPP 45
-1
20.2%
N'Kosi Perry run for a loss of 1 yard to the OKSt 46Similar
Q4 12:45
4TH & 3
OPP 46
+44
18.8%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Will Mallory for 44 yds to the OKSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
23.8%
Cam'Ron Harris run for 1 yd to the OKSt 1Similar
Q4 12:03
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
44.8%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Brevin Jordan for 1 yd for a TD (Jose Borregales KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 20TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:0567% → 91%
Q4 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
32.6%
Spencer Sanders run for 6 yds to the OKSt 31Similar
Q4 11:40
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+4
29.4%
LD Brown run for 4 yds to the OKSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:35
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
29.6%
Spencer Sanders pass incomplete to Dillon Stoner, broken up by DJ IveySimilar
Q4 11:08
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+35
30.2%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Tay Martin for 35 yds to the MiaFl 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:30
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+6
24.4%
Dominic Richardson run for 6 yds to the MiaFl 24Similar
Q4 10:12
2ND & 4
OPP 24
+8
24.0%
Spencer Sanders run for 8 yds to the MiaFl 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:55
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
8.8%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Brennan Presley for 16 yds for a TD (Brady Pohl PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 21TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 4:0615% → 49%
Q4 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
14.8%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Brevin Jordan for 2 yds to the MiaFl 27Similar
Q4 9:15
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+12
14.7%
N'Kosi Perry run for 12 yds to the MiaFl 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
15.5%
Brevin Jordan run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 40Similar
Q4 8:15
2ND & 9
OWN 40
-7
15.2%
N'Kosi Perry sacked by Calvin Bundage and Tre Sterling for a loss of 7 yards to the MiaFl 33Similar
Q4 7:45
3RD & 16
OWN 33
+15
12.7%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Will Mallory for 15 yds to the MiaFl 48Similar
Q4 7:15
4TH & 1
OWN 48
+1
14.2%
Donald Chaney Jr. run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:31
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+25
11.4%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Cam'Ron Harris for 25 yds to the OKSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:05
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+11
15.0%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Brevin Jordan for 11 yds to the OKSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:55
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+10
14.9%
Donald Chaney Jr. run for 10 yds to the OKSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
48.6%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Mike Harley for 5 yds for a TD (M. Few Run For Two-point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:5671% → 69%
Q4 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
28.7%
LD Brown run for 1 yd to the OKSt 26Similar
Q4 4:52
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
28.0%
Spencer Sanders pass incomplete to Brennan PresleySimilar
Q4 4:48
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
29.7%
Spencer Sanders pass incomplete to Brennan PresleySimilar
Q4 4:34
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
31.2%
Tom Hutton punt for 55 yds, downed at the MiaFl 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 23PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:1437% → 33%
Q4 4:28
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
37.0%
N'Kosi Perry pass incomplete to Will MallorySimilar
Q4 4:24
2ND & 10
OWN 19
0
36.4%
N'Kosi Perry pass incomplete to Donald Chaney Jr.Similar
Q4 4:20
3RD & 10
OWN 19
0
34.7%
N'Kosi Perry pass incomplete to Brevin Jordan, broken up by Thomas HarperSimilar
Q4 4:14
4TH & 10
OWN 19
0
33.3%
Lou Hedley punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Dillon Stoner at the OKSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 24PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:4175% → 74%
Q4 3:55
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
25.3%
Spencer Sanders run for 2 yds to the OKSt 32Similar
Q4 3:25
2ND & 8
OWN 32
+2
23.6%
Spencer Sanders run for 2 yds to the OKSt 34Similar
Q4 3:20
3RD & 6
OWN 34
0
23.9%
Spencer Sanders pass incomplete to Dillon StonerSimilar
Q4 3:14
4TH & 6
OWN 34
0
25.8%
Tom Hutton punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Mike Harley at the MiaFl 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 25DOWNS
6 plays · 25 yds · 1:3137% → 32%
Q4 3:12
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
37.1%
N'Kosi Perry run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 32Similar
Q4 2:48
2ND & 8
OWN 32
0
33.9%
N'Kosi Perry pass incomplete to Dee WigginsSimilar
Q4 2:40
3RD & 8
OWN 32
+16
32.6%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Brevin Jordan for 16 yds to the MiaFl 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:25
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
38.0%
N'Kosi Perry pass incomplete to Mark PopeSimilar
Q4 2:20
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+1
37.4%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Donald Chaney Jr. for 1 yd to the MiaFl 49Similar
Q4 1:41
3RD & 9
OWN 49
0
31.9%
N'Kosi Perry pass incomplete to Brevin JordanSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 26END OF 4TH QUARTER
5 plays · -20 yds · 0:5288% → 92%
Q4 1:32
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-4
11.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 4 yards to the OKSt 41Similar
Q4 1:15
2ND & 14
OWN 41
-6
12.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 6 yards to the OKSt 35Similar
Q4 0:44
3RD & 20
OWN 35
-5
8.8%
OKLAHOMA ST Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the OKSt 30Similar
Q4 0:40
3RD & 25
OWN 30
-5
8.5%
Spencer Sanders run for a loss of 5 yards to the OKSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 5:39
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Mike Harley for 5 yds for a TD (M. Few Run For Two-point Conversion)
+33.7
TD · Q4 12:03
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Brevin Jordan for 1 yd for a TD (Jose Borregales KICK)
+21
TD · Q3 8:45
Cam'Ron Harris run for 42 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed )
+16.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com