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Win probability · BUF
modelBUF aheadMRSH aheadconfidence bandkey playBUF scoreMRSH score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 11:43 · Kyle Vantrease run for 1 yd for a TD (Alex McNulty KICK)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout margin
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 0:42: Knowledge McDaniel run for 2 yds for a TD (Shane Ciucci KICK) — MRSH win probability +11.1 pts (now 38%) (top driver: MRSH has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q4 14:37: Grant Wells pass complete to Xavier Gaines for 7 yds to the Marsh 17 — MRSH win probability +9.9 pts (now 43%) (top driver: MRSH has the ball).
- PUNT · Q4 7:27: Robert LeFevre punt for 61 yds, downed at the Buff 12 — BUF win probability +6.0 pts (now 58%) (top driver: Tied - offense's timeout count is neutral here).
- TD · Q4 1:09: Kevin Marks Jr. run for 2 yds for a TD (Alex McNulty KICK) — BUF win probability +27.6 pts (now 97%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q4 0:00: TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Buff 23 — BUF win probability +8.5 pts (now 98%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
BUF made the numbers' call on 7 of 7MRSH made the numbers' call on 4 of 9
- Q1 12:55BUF 4th & 1 at MRSH 42, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 65.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call65.7%70% to convertField goal65.5%−0.230% to makePunt65.5%−0.2average punt
- Q1 10:00BUF 4th & 9 at MRSH 17, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 65.6% before the snapGo for it65.4%−0.129% to convertField goalTheir call65.5%80% to makePunt64.9%−0.7average punt
- Q1 8:27MRSH 4th & 10 at MRSH 20, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 34.5% before the snapGo for it34.4%−0.227% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call34.5%average punt
- Q1 3:53BUF 4th & 5 at MRSH 25, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 65.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call65.0%41% to convertField goal64.9%−<0.166% to makePunt63.4%−1.5average punt
- Q1 2:14MRSH 4th & 1 at MRSH 48, tiedClose callPunted · 36.6% before the snapGo for it36.7%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call36.1%−0.6average punt
- Q2 11:43BUF 4th & 1 at MRSH 1, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 64.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call64.5%59% to convertField goal63.5%−1.194% to makePunt60.7%−3.8average punt
- Q2 9:53MRSH 4th & 16 at MRSH 19, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.6% before the snapGo for it27.2%−1.514% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call28.7%average punt
- Q2 5:33BUF 4th & 8 at MRSH 8, up 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 72.4% before the snapGo for it71.2%−0.526% to convertField goalTheir call71.7%90% to makePunt67.2%−4.4average punt
- Q3 12:33MRSH 4th & 1 at BUF 36, down 3Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 35.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call35.7%71% to convertField goal32.1%−3.642% to makePunt31.5%−4.1average punt
- Q3 8:48MRSH 4th & 3 at BUF 3, down 3Numbers favored go for it by 1.8 ptsKicked a field goal · 36.0% before the snapGo for it36.9%44% to convertField goalTheir call35.1%−1.893% to makePunt25.4%−11.5average punt
- Q3 6:45BUF 4th & 10 at BUF 25, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 58.4% before the snapGo for it57.6%−2.928% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call60.6%average punt
- Q3 3:23MRSH 4th & 3 at BUF 25, tiedNumbers favored go for it by 1.7 ptsKicked a field goal · 44.8% before the snapGo for it46.0%52% to convertField goalTheir call44.3%−1.766% to makePunt32.7%−13.3average punt
- Q4 12:46MRSH 4th & 1 at MRSH 19, tiedNumbers favored go for it by 4.7 ptsPunted · 41.5% before the snapGo for it43.7%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call39.0%−4.7average punt
- Q4 9:20BUF 4th & 12 at BUF 34, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 55.7% before the snapGo for it51.1%−6.923% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call58.0%average punt
- Q4 7:27MRSH 4th & 13 at MRSH 27, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 41.7% before the snapGo for it35.6%−7.519% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call43.1%average punt
- Q4 0:03MRSH 4th & 11 at BUF 21, down 7Numbers favored field goal by 9.2 ptsWent for it · 13.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call11.5%−9.225% to convertField goal20.7%74% to makePunt7.8%−12.9average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BUF made the numbers' call on 2 of 2MRSH made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q2 11:43BUF Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call68.8%97% to makeGo for two68.7%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:42MRSH Touchdown, down 4 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call33.9%97% to makeGo for two33.8%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 1:09BUF Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call88.5%97% to makeGo for two86.9%−1.645% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartBUFDrive 1MISSED FG13 plays · 56 yds · 4:4069% → 68%
Q1 11:55
2ND & 8
OPP 36
+6
68.8%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Zac Lefebvre for 6 yds to the Marsh 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 2PUNT4 plays · 0 yds · 1:2332% → 32%
Q1 9:30
2ND & 5
OWN 25
-1
67.9%
Grant Wells pass complete to Xavier Gaines for a loss of 1 yard to the Marsh 24Similar
Q1 9:05
3RD & 6
OWN 24
-4
68.1%
Grant Wells sacked by Max Michel for a loss of 4 yards to the Marsh 20 Grant Wells fumbled, recovered by Marsh Alex Mollette , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 3DOWNS9 plays · 30 yds · 4:1268% → 68%
MRSHDrive 4PUNT5 plays · 23 yds · 1:2633% → 34%
Q1 2:50
3RD & 7
OWN 42
+6
66.3%
Grant Wells pass complete to Corey Gammage for 6 yds to the Marsh 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 5TD11 plays · 80 yds · 5:1267% → 72%
MRSHDrive 6PUNT8 plays · -6 yds · 1:4629% → 27%
Q2 11:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
71.4%
Wells, Grant pass incomplete to Gammage, Corey, PENALTY MARSHALL ineligible downfield on pass 5 yards to the MARSHALL20, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 7FG11 plays · 37 yds · 4:0274% → 75%
Q2 8:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+8
75.0%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Antonio Nunn for 8 yds to the Marsh 26Similar
Q2 6:30
2ND & 12
OPP 24
+15
75.3%
Vantrease, Kyle pass incomplete to Wilson, Trevor, PENALTY MARSHALL pass interference 15 yards to the MARSHALL9, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN BUFFALO.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 8TD14 plays · 75 yds · 4:3725% → 38%
Q2 4:40
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+15
75.7%
Grant Wells pass complete to Corey Gammage for 15 yds to the Marsh 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:06
2ND & 8
OWN 47
+6
74.6%
Grant Wells pass complete to Corey Gammage for 6 yds to the Buff 47Similar
Q2 2:40
3RD & 2
OPP 47
+4
74.9%
Sheldon Evans run for 4 yds to the Buff 43 Sheldon Evans fumbled, recovered by Marsh at Buff 45Similar
Q2 2:10
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
74.7%
Grant Wells pass complete to Sheldon Evans for 2 yds to the Buff 43Similar
Q2 1:23
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+31
73.4%
Grant Wells pass complete to Corey Gammage for 31 yds to the Buff 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 9END OF HALF2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0067% → 67%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 10FG16 plays · 60 yds · 5:5734% → 42%
Q3 10:32
3RD & 9
OPP 17
+9
63.6%
Grant Wells pass complete to Artie Henry for 9 yds to the Buff 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 11PUNT6 plays · 0 yds · 1:4563% → 60%
MRSHDrive 12MISSED FG9 plays · 42 yds · 3:1442% → 44%
Q3 6:37
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+12
57.9%
Knowledge McDaniel run for 12 yds to the Marsh 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 13INT9 plays · 41 yds · 3:2161% → 67%
Q3 1:55
3RD & 8
OWN 27
-5
58.8%
Vantrease, Kyle pass complete to Lefebvre, Zac for 11 yards to the BUFFALO38, PENALTY BUFFALO illegal motion 5 yards to the BUFFALO22, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 1:34
3RD & 13
OWN 22
+15
58.5%
Vantrease, Kyle pass incomplete to Wilson, Trevor, PENALTY MARSHALL pass interference (Bowers, Joshua) 15 yards to the BUFFALO37, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN BUFFALO.Similar
Q3 1:26
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+15
62.2%
Vantrease, Kyle pass incomplete to Nunn, Antonio, PENALTY MARSHALL pass interference (Bowers, Joshua) 15 yards to the MARSHALL48, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN BUFFALO.Similar
Q3 0:43
2ND & 9
OPP 47
+8
65.3%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Zac Lefebvre for 8 yds to the Marsh 39Similar
Q4 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
66.7%
Kyle Vantrease pass intercepted Nazeeh Johnson return for no gain to the Marsh 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 14PUNT4 plays · 9 yds · 1:5143% → 41%
Q4 14:37
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+7
56.9%
Grant Wells pass complete to Xavier Gaines for 7 yds to the Marsh 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 15PUNT8 plays · 12 yds · 3:1560% → 56%
Q4 11:35
2ND & 12
OWN 20
+6
59.2%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Trevor Wilson for 6 yds to the Buff 26Similar
Q4 10:50
3RD & 6
OWN 26
+10
57.6%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Jovany Ruiz for 10 yds to the Buff 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:40
2ND & 7
OWN 39
-5
62.6%
Vantrease, Kyle pass complete to Ruiz, Jovany for 17 yards to the MARSHALL44, PENALTY BUFFALO ineligible downfield on pass 5 yards to the BUFFALO34, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:20
4TH & 12
OWN 34
0
55.5%
Evan Finegan punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Talik Keaton at the Marsh 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 16PUNT4 plays · -3 yds · 1:2346% → 42%
BUFDrive 17TD17 plays · 88 yds · 6:0858% → 97%
Q4 6:35
2ND & 9
OWN 13
+16
57.5%
Marks Jr., Kevin rush for no gain to the BUFFALO13, PENALTY MARSHALL face mask 16 yards to the BUFFALO29, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN BUFFALO.Similar
Q4 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+6
58.7%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Jovany Ruiz for 6 yds to the Buff 35Similar
Q4 5:30
2ND & 4
OWN 35
+6
61.2%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Jovany Ruiz for 6 yds to the Buff 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:10
3RD & 7
OWN 44
+10
60.0%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Jovany Ruiz for 10 yds to the Marsh 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:45
2ND & 8
OPP 44
+26
63.9%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Antonio Nunn for 26 yds to the Marsh 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:55
3RD & 5
OPP 13
+12
65.2%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Antonio Nunn for 12 yds to the Marsh 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 18DOWNS14 plays · 40 yds · 1:019% → 11%
Q4 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-2
90.0%
Grant Wells pass complete to Sheldon Evans for a loss of 2 yards to the Marsh 43Similar
Q4 0:45
2ND & 12
OWN 43
+15
91.3%
Grant Wells pass complete to Corey Gammage for 15 yds to the Buff 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:38
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+7
89.0%
Wells, Grant pass incomplete to Keaton, Talik, PENALTY BUFFALO pass interference 7 yards to the BUFFALO35, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MARSHALL.Similar
Q4 0:33
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+15
85.6%
Grant Wells pass complete to Corey Gammage for 15 yds to the Buff 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:15
2ND & 10
OPP 20
-9
85.0%
Grant Wells sacked by Kadofi Wright for a loss of 9 yards to the Buff 29Similar
Q4 0:09
3RD & 19
OPP 29
+8
89.4%
Grant Wells pass complete to Sheldon Evans for 8 yds to the Buff 21Similar
Q4 0:03
4TH & 11
OPP 21
-4
89.3%
Grant Wells sacked by Eric Black for a loss of 4 yards to the Buff 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 19Uncategorized1 play · -2 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 1:09
Kevin Marks Jr. run for 2 yds for a TD (Alex McNulty KICK)
+27.6
TD · Q2 0:42
Knowledge McDaniel run for 2 yds for a TD (Shane Ciucci KICK)
-11.1
KEY PLAY · Q4 14:37
Grant Wells pass complete to Xavier Gaines for 7 yds to the Marsh 17
-9.9