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UCF

UCF 23 at BYU 49

BYU
2020 · RoofClaim.com Boca Raton Bowl · Dec 22, 2020 · FAU Stadium
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Win probability · BYU
modelBYU aheadUCF aheadconfidence bandkey playBYU scoreUCF score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 2:07 · Greg McCrae run for a loss of 1 yard to the BYU 24
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+36.0+18.00−18.0−36.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 45Home team on offense+3.9Score differential+1.5Pregame prior+12.0Blowout margin+0.3Garbage-time factor+0.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 0:25: Zach Wilson run for 4 yds for a TD, (Jake Oldroyd KICK) — BYU win probability +6.2 pts (now 81%) (top driver: BYU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 10:11: Greg McCrae run for 5 yds for a TD, (Daniel Obarski KICK) — UCF win probability +9.9 pts (now 27%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 7:11: Zach Wilson pass complete to Isaac Rex for 27 yds for a TD, (Jake Oldroyd KICK) — BYU win probability +10.6 pts (now 89%) (top driver: BYU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 3:31: Zach Wilson pass complete to Neil Pau'u for 35 yds for a TD, (Jake Oldroyd KICK) — BYU win probability +5.4 pts (now 97%) (top driver: BYU has the ball).
  5. FG · Q2 0:19: Daniel Obarski 35 yd FG GOOD — UCF win probability +5.9 pts (now 9%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BYU made the numbers' call on 2 of 3UCF made the numbers' call on 9 of 9
  1. Q1 12:23UCF 4th & 7 at UCF 28, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.4%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:34UCF 4th & 12 at BYU 45, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.9%−0.5
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    29.7%−0.7
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    30.4%
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:42BYU 4th & 2 at UCF 38, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 73.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    73.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    72.7%−1.0
    38% to make
    Punt
    72.7%−1.0
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:07UCF 4th & 1 at BYU 23, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 27.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    27.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    26.0%−1.1
    70% to make
    Punt
    22.8%−4.3
    average punt
  5. Q2 6:25UCF 4th & 10 at UCF 39, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.9%−0.7
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.6%
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:19UCF 4th & 10 at BYU 18, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 3.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.4%−0.9
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    3.3%
    79% to make
    Punt
    0.7%−2.6
    average punt
  7. Q3 13:56UCF 4th & 10 at UCF 23, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.8%−1.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.9%
    average punt
  8. Q3 12:42UCF 4th & 10 at UCF 25, down 32
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.7%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.8%
    average punt
  9. Q3 6:44UCF 4th & 6 at BYU 35, down 39
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.7%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    0.6%−<0.1
    45% to make
    Punt
    0.6%−0.1
    average punt
  10. Q3 3:03BYU 4th & 11 at UCF 38, up 39
    Close callWent for it · 99.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.6%−<0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    99.6%−<0.1
    38% to make
    Punt
    99.6%
    average punt
  11. Q4 13:02BYU 4th & 11 at BYU 35, up 32
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.7%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.8%
    average punt
  12. Q4 7:53UCF 4th & 6 at BYU 9, down 32
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.2%
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%−<0.1
    89% to make
    Punt
    -0.1%−0.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BYU made the numbers' call on 7 of 7UCF made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 13:11BYU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 11:10BYU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 0:25BYU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 10:11UCF Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    22.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    21.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 7:11BYU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 3:31BYU Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 13:11BYU Touchdown, up 31 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 9:31BYU Touchdown, up 38 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 0:05UCF Touchdown, down 33 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 7:53UCF Touchdown, down 26 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    0.4%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    0.5%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BYUDrive 1TD
6 plays · 87 yds · 1:3265% → 66%
Q1 14:43
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+11
65.3%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Neil Pau'u for 11 yds to the BYU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:13
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+18
65.2%
Tyler Allgeier run for 18 yds to the BYU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:53
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+43
65.3%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Tyler Allgeier for 43 yds to the UCF 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:20
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
65.4%
Zach Wilson pass incomplete to Isaac RexSimilar
Q1 13:11
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+15
66.0%
Zach Wilson run for 15 yds for a TD, (Jake Oldroyd KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:4134% → 34%
Q1 13:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
65.8%
Dillon Gabriel pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:54
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
65.8%
Otis Anderson run for 3 yds to the UCF 28Similar
Q1 12:32
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
66.0%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Jacob HarrisSimilar
Q1 12:23
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
66.1%
Andrew Osteen punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Hobbs Nyberg at the BYU 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 3TD
4 plays · 72 yds · 1:0566% → 68%
Q1 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+12
66.0%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Gunner Romney for 12 yds to the BYU 40 for a 1ST down UCF Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Davonte Brown) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+19
66.3%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Neil Pau'u for 19 yds to the UCF 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:36
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+5
66.6%
Tyler Allgeier run for 5 yds to the UCF 36Similar
Q1 11:10
2ND & 5
OPP 36
+36
67.9%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Isaac Rex for 36 yds for a TD, (Jake Oldroyd KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 4PUNT
10 plays · 30 yds · 1:3033% → 32%
Q1 11:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
67.5%
Dillon Gabriel run for 11 yds to the UCF 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:39
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+11
67.6%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Tre Nixon for 11 yds to the UCF 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:19
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
67.7%
Greg McCrae run for 5 yds to the BYU 48Similar
Q1 10:10
2ND & 5
OPP 48
+5
67.7%
Greg McCrae run for 5 yds to the BYU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:07
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
67.8%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Jaylon RobinsonSimilar
Q1 10:06
2ND & 10
OPP 43
-5
67.8%
UCF Penalty, False Start (Jaylon Robinson) to the BYU 48Similar
Q1 9:58
2ND & 15
OPP 48
+3
68.0%
Greg McCrae run for 3 yds to the BYU 45Similar
Q1 9:43
3RD & 12
OPP 45
0
68.2%
Dillon Gabriel pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:34
4TH & 12
OPP 45
0
68.5%
Andrew Osteen punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Hobbs Nyberg at the BYU 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 5DOWNS
11 plays · 50 yds · 4:4569% → 72%
Q1 9:27
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
68.7%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Dax Milne for no gain to the BYU 12Similar
Q1 8:53
2ND & 10
OWN 12
+2
69.2%
Tyler Allgeier run for 2 yds to the BYU 14Similar
Q1 8:13
3RD & 8
OWN 14
+10
69.7%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Dax Milne for 10 yds to the BYU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:56
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
70.2%
Zach Wilson pass incomplete to Gunner RomneySimilar
Q1 7:40
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+2
70.2%
Lopini Katoa run for 2 yds to the BYU 26Similar
Q1 7:11
3RD & 8
OWN 26
+13
70.4%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Dax Milne for 13 yds to the BYU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:39
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+15
71.4%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Isaac Rex for 15 yds to the UCF 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:21
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-4
71.8%
Tyler Allgeier run for a loss of 4 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 5:41
2ND & 14
50
+1
72.0%
Tyler Allgeier run for 1 yd to the UCF 49Similar
Q1 5:00
3RD & 13
OPP 49
+11
72.1%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Chris Jackson for 11 yds to the UCF 38Similar
Q1 4:42
4TH & 2
OPP 38
0
72.2%
Zach Wilson pass incomplete to Brayden CosperSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 6DOWNS
9 plays · 38 yds · 2:1529% → 29%
Q1 4:22
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
70.9%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Jake Hescock for 4 yds to the UCF 42Similar
Q1 4:08
2ND & 6
OWN 42
+4
70.9%
Otis Anderson run for 4 yds to the UCF 46Similar
Q1 4:00
3RD & 2
OWN 46
+7
70.9%
Otis Anderson run for 7 yds to the BYU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:46
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+5
70.7%
Otis Anderson run for 5 yds to the BYU 42Similar
Q1 3:25
2ND & 5
OPP 42
+10
71.1%
Otis Anderson run for 10 yds to the BYU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:08
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
71.1%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Ja'Cyais CredleSimilar
Q1 3:02
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+5
71.2%
Dillon Gabriel run for 5 yds to the BYU 27Similar
Q1 2:38
3RD & 5
OPP 27
+4
71.1%
Bentavious Thompson run for 4 yds to the BYU 23Similar
Q1 2:07
4TH & 1
OPP 23
-1
71.5%
Greg McCrae run for a loss of 1 yard to the BYU 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 7TD
4 plays · 76 yds · 1:2874% → 81%
Q1 1:53
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+49
74.3%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Lopini Katoa for 34 yds to the UCF 42 for a 1ST down UCF Penalty, Personal Foul (Divaad Wilson) to the UCF 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:27
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+16
74.6%
Neil Pau'u pass complete to Zach Wilson for 16 yds to the UCF 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:57
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+7
74.9%
Dax Milne run for 7 yds to the UCF 4Similar
Q1 0:25
2ND & 3
OPP 4
+4
81.2%
Zach Wilson run for 4 yds for a TD, (Jake Oldroyd KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 8TD
18 plays · 80 yds · 4:5919% → 27%
Q1 0:10
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
81.1%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Tre Nixon for 6 yds to the UCF 26Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+3
81.1%
Greg McCrae run for 3 yds to the UCF 29Similar
Q2 14:55
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+12
81.1%
Greg McCrae run for 12 yds to the UCF 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:38
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
81.2%
Greg McCrae run for 3 yds to the UCF 44Similar
Q2 14:00
2ND & 7
OWN 44
+4
81.7%
Greg McCrae run for 4 yds to the UCF 48Similar
Q2 13:52
3RD & 3
OWN 48
-5
81.6%
UCF Penalty, False Start (Tre Nixon) to the UCF 43Similar
Q2 13:22
3RD & 8
OWN 43
+10
82.5%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Jaylon Robinson for 10 yds to the BYU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:07
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+4
82.0%
Otis Anderson run for 4 yds to the BYU 43Similar
Q2 12:54
2ND & 6
OPP 43
+6
82.5%
Otis Anderson run for 6 yds to the BYU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:29
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+4
82.8%
Otis Anderson run for 4 yds to the BYU 33Similar
Q2 12:15
2ND & 6
OPP 33
-10
82.4%
Anderson, Otis rush for loss of 2 yards to the BYU35, PENALTY UCF holding (Tatum, Marcus) 10 yards to the BYU43, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:54
2ND & 16
OPP 43
+22
84.0%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Jacob Harris for 22 yds to the BYU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:42
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
82.8%
Dillon Gabriel pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:32
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+7
83.1%
Dillon Gabriel run for 7 yds to the BYU 14Similar
Q2 11:00
3RD & 3
OPP 14
+4
83.8%
Bentavious Thompson run for 4 yds to the BYU 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+5
83.5%
Bentavious Thompson run for 5 yds to the BYU 5Similar
Q2 10:11
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
73.5%
Greg McCrae run for 5 yds for a TD, (Daniel Obarski KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 9TD
8 plays · 68 yds · 2:4477% → 89%
Q2 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+24
77.4%
Tyler Allgeier run for 24 yds to the UCF 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:24
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
78.6%
Zach Wilson pass incomplete to Dax MilneSimilar
Q2 9:00
2ND & 10
OPP 43
-9
78.7%
Tyler Allgeier run for 1 yd to the BYU 43 BYU Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the BYU 47Similar
Q2 8:57
2ND & 19
OWN 47
+4
78.3%
Zach Wilson run for 4 yds to the UCF 49Similar
Q2 7:56
3RD & 15
OPP 49
+18
77.4%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Lopini Katoa for 18 yds to the UCF 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:47
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+4
78.6%
Lopini Katoa run for 4 yds to the UCF 27Similar
Q2 7:11
2ND & 6
OPP 27
+27
89.2%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Isaac Rex for 27 yds for a TD, (Jake Oldroyd KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 14 yds · 0:4013% → 12%
Q2 7:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
86.9%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Jaylon Robinson for 14 yds to the UCF 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:53
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
86.5%
Dillon Gabriel pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:48
2ND & 10
OWN 39
0
86.8%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Jaylon RobinsonSimilar
Q2 6:39
3RD & 10
OWN 39
0
87.3%
Dillon Gabriel pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:25
4TH & 10
OWN 39
0
87.6%
Andrew Osteen punt for 48 yds, downed at the BYU 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 11TD
6 plays · 87 yds · 2:3789% → 97%
Q2 6:08
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+5
89.4%
Tyler Allgeier run for 5 yds to the BYU 18Similar
Q2 5:36
2ND & 5
OWN 18
+1
89.7%
Tyler Allgeier run for 1 yd to the BYU 19Similar
Q2 5:05
3RD & 4
OWN 19
+8
89.8%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Dax Milne for 8 yds to the BYU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:29
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+8
90.5%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Lopini Katoa for 8 yds to the BYU 35Similar
Q2 3:51
2ND & 2
OWN 35
+30
91.2%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Lopini Katoa for 30 yds to the UCF 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:31
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+35
96.6%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Neil Pau'u for 35 yds for a TD, (Jake Oldroyd KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 12FG
16 plays · 57 yds · 3:004% → 9%
Q2 3:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
96.3%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Greg McCrae for 2 yds to the UCF 27Similar
Q2 3:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
96.3%
Dillon Gabriel pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:54
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+15
96.5%
Gabriel, Dillon pass incomplete, PENALTY BYU pass interference (Fonua, Kavika) 15 yards to the UCF42, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN UCF.Similar
Q2 2:37
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
96.4%
Greg McCrae run for 2 yds to the UCF 44Similar
Q2 2:02
2ND & 8
OWN 44
+15
96.6%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Ja'Cyais Credle for 15 yds to the BYU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:54
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+11
96.8%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Jacob Harris for 11 yds to the BYU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:43
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+2
96.5%
Dillon Gabriel run for 2 yds to the BYU 28Similar
Q2 1:11
2ND & 8
OPP 28
+7
96.1%
Greg McCrae run for 7 yds to the BYU 21Similar
Q2 0:52
3RD & 1
OPP 21
+3
96.0%
Greg McCrae run for 3 yds to the BYU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:35
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
96.3%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Ryan O'KeefeSimilar
Q2 0:31
2ND & 10
OPP 18
0
96.4%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Ryan O'KeefeSimilar
Q2 0:24
3RD & 10
OPP 18
0
97.4%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Ryan O'KeefeSimilar
Q2 0:19
4TH & 10
OPP 18
+35
90.6%
Daniel Obarski 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 13END OF HALF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
95.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the BYU 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:496% → 6%
Q3 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
93.8%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Tre NixonSimilar
Q3 14:36
2ND & 10
OWN 23
0
93.9%
Otis Anderson run for no gain to the UCF 23Similar
Q3 14:08
3RD & 10
OWN 23
0
94.4%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Jacob HarrisSimilar
Q3 13:56
4TH & 10
OWN 23
+10
93.9%
Andrew Osteen punt for 37 yds , Hobbs Nyberg returns for 10 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 15TD
2 plays · 50 yds · 0:3896% → 98%
Q3 13:49
1ST & 10
50
+11
95.9%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Isaac Rex for 11 yds to the UCF 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:11
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+39
98.3%
Tyler Allgeier run for 39 yds for a TD, (Jake Oldroyd KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:212% → 2%
Q3 13:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
98.1%
Dillon Gabriel pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:58
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
98.1%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Jacob HarrisSimilar
Q3 12:51
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
98.1%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Ryan O'KeefeSimilar
Q3 12:42
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
98.2%
Andrew Osteen punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Hobbs Nyberg at the BYU 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 17TD
9 plays · 67 yds · 3:0798% → 99%
Q3 12:38
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
98.3%
Zach Wilson pass incomplete to Dax MilneSimilar
Q3 12:31
2ND & 10
OWN 33
-3
98.3%
Lopini Katoa run for a loss of 3 yards to the BYU 30Similar
Q3 12:08
3RD & 13
OWN 30
+15
98.4%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Dax Milne for 15 yds to the BYU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+7
98.6%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Isaac Rex for 7 yds to the UCF 48Similar
Q3 11:17
2ND & 3
OPP 48
+6
98.7%
Tyler Allgeier run for 6 yds to the UCF 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:52
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+17
98.9%
Tyler Allgeier run for 17 yds to the UCF 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:17
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+4
99.0%
Lopini Katoa run for 4 yds to the UCF 21Similar
Q3 9:37
2ND & 6
OPP 21
+15
99.1%
Wilson, Zach pass incomplete to Milne, Dax, PENALTY UCF pass interference (Brown, Davonte) 15 yards to the UCF6, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN BYU.Similar
Q3 9:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
99.3%
Gunner Romney run for 6 yds for a TD, (Jake Oldroyd KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 18DOWNS
12 plays · 49 yds · 2:291% → 1%
Q3 9:13
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+18
99.2%
Otis Anderson run for 18 yds to the UCF 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+2
99.2%
Otis Anderson run for 2 yds to the UCF 36Similar
Q3 8:49
2ND & 8
OWN 36
0
99.2%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Jacob HarrisSimilar
Q3 8:42
3RD & 8
OWN 36
+13
99.2%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Jacob Harris for 13 yds to the UCF 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:18
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
99.2%
Otis Anderson run for 4 yds to the BYU 47Similar
Q3 8:12
2ND & 6
OPP 47
0
99.2%
Dillon Gabriel pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:03
3RD & 6
OPP 47
+8
99.2%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Tre Nixon for 8 yds to the BYU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:49
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+1
99.2%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Otis Anderson for 1 yd to the BYU 38Similar
Q3 7:30
2ND & 9
OPP 38
+3
99.2%
Otis Anderson run for 3 yds to the BYU 35Similar
Q3 6:52
3RD & 6
OPP 35
0
99.4%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Tre NixonSimilar
Q3 6:44
4TH & 6
OPP 35
0
99.3%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Jacob HarrisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 19DOWNS
8 plays · 33 yds · 3:35100% → 100%
Q3 6:38
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
99.5%
Tyler Allgeier run for 7 yds to the BYU 42Similar
Q3 6:01
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+6
99.5%
Tyler Allgeier run for 6 yds to the BYU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:27
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+15
99.5%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Neil Pau'u for 15 yds to the UCF 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:46
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+1
99.6%
Lopini Katoa run for 1 yd to the UCF 36Similar
Q3 4:19
2ND & 9
OPP 36
-5
99.6%
BYU Penalty, False Start (Brady Christensen) to the UCF 41Similar
Q3 3:54
2ND & 14
OPP 41
0
99.6%
Zach Wilson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:40
3RD & 14
OPP 41
+3
99.6%
Zach Wilson run for 3 yds to the UCF 38Similar
Q3 3:03
4TH & 11
OPP 38
+6
99.6%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Neil Pau'u for 6 yds to the UCF 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 20TD
9 plays · 68 yds · 2:470% → 0%
Q3 2:52
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
99.7%
Greg McCrae run for 3 yds to the UCF 35Similar
Q3 2:26
2ND & 7
OWN 35
+16
99.7%
Greg McCrae run for 16 yds to the BYU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:57
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+7
99.7%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Ja'Cyais Credle for 7 yds to the BYU 42Similar
Q3 1:48
2ND & 3
OPP 42
+5
99.7%
Greg McCrae run for 5 yds to the BYU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:30
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+4
99.7%
Greg McCrae run for 4 yds to the BYU 33Similar
Q3 1:05
2ND & 6
OPP 33
+15
99.7%
BYU Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Micah Harper) to the BYU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:55
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
99.7%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Tre NixonSimilar
Q3 0:46
2ND & 10
OPP 18
-3
99.7%
Greg McCrae run for a loss of 3 yards to the BYU 21Similar
Q3 0:05
3RD & 13
OPP 21
+21
99.7%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Jacob Harris for 21 yds for a TD, (Daniel Obarski KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 21PUNT
7 plays · 10 yds · 1:58100% → 100%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
99.7%
Tyler Allgeier run for 11 yds to the BYU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:54
1ST & 10
50
+4
99.7%
Tyler Allgeier run for 14 yds to the 50 yard line BYU Penalty, Offensive Holding (Brayden Cosper) to the BYU 40Similar
Q4 14:34
1ST & 6
OWN 40
-14
99.7%
Zach Wilson sacked by Tatum Bethune for a loss of 14 yards to the BYU 26Similar
Q4 13:45
2ND & 20
OWN 26
+9
99.7%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Tyler Allgeier for 9 yds to the BYU 35Similar
Q4 13:12
3RD & 11
OWN 35
0
99.7%
Zach Wilson pass incomplete to Lopini KatoaSimilar
Q4 13:02
4TH & 11
OWN 35
0
99.7%
Ryan Rehkow punt for 47 yds , Amari Johnson returns for no gain to the UCF 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 22TD
15 plays · 82 yds · 4:570% → 0%
Q4 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+2
99.8%
Dillon Gabriel run for 2 yds to the UCF 20Similar
Q4 12:37
2ND & 8
OWN 20
+11
99.8%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Tre Nixon for 11 yds to the UCF 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:24
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-1
99.8%
Otis Anderson run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCF 30Similar
Q4 11:50
2ND & 11
OWN 30
+10
99.8%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Otis Anderson for 10 yds to the UCF 40Similar
Q4 11:40
3RD & 1
OWN 40
+11
99.8%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Jaylon Robinson for 11 yds to the BYU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:03
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+1
99.8%
Greg McCrae run for 1 yd to the BYU 48Similar
Q4 10:44
2ND & 9
OPP 48
+11
99.8%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Greg McCrae for 11 yds to the BYU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:29
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+12
99.8%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Tre Nixon for 12 yds to the BYU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+8
99.8%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Ryan O'Keefe for 8 yds to the BYU 17Similar
Q4 9:24
2ND & 2
OPP 17
+4
99.8%
Otis Anderson run for 4 yds to the BYU 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:07
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+4
99.8%
Dillon Gabriel run for 4 yds to the BYU 9Similar
Q4 8:39
2ND & 6
OPP 9
0
99.8%
Otis Anderson run for no gain to the BYU 9Similar
Q4 8:02
3RD & 6
OPP 9
0
99.8%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Ryan O'KeefeSimilar
Q4 7:53
4TH & 6
OPP 9
+9
99.7%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Jaylon Robinson for 9 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 23END OF 4TH QUARTER
15 plays · 61 yds · 7:40100% → 100%
Q4 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+11
99.7%
Lopini Katoa run for 11 yds to the BYU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:57
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+8
99.8%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Dax Milne for 8 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 6:18
2ND & 2
50
+2
99.8%
Lopini Katoa run for 2 yds to the UCF 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:35
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+1
99.8%
Tyler Allgeier run for 1 yd to the UCF 47Similar
Q4 4:50
2ND & 9
OPP 47
+8
99.8%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Tyler Allgeier for 8 yds to the UCF 39Similar
Q4 4:11
3RD & 1
OPP 39
+7
99.8%
Tyler Allgeier run for 7 yds to the UCF 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:32
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+12
99.9%
Tyler Allgeier run for 12 yds to the UCF 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:50
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
99.9%
Gunner Romney run for no gain to the UCF 20Similar
Q4 2:11
2ND & 10
OPP 20
0
99.9%
Zach Wilson pass incomplete to Lopini KatoaSimilar
Q4 2:05
3RD & 10
OPP 20
+16
99.9%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Dax Milne for 16 yds to the UCF 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-2
99.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the UCF 6Similar
Q4 0:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
-1
99.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCF 7Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
-1
99.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCF 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 7:11
Zach Wilson pass complete to Isaac Rex for 27 yds for a TD, (Jake Oldroyd KICK)
+10.6
TD · Q2 10:11
Greg McCrae run for 5 yds for a TD, (Daniel Obarski KICK)
-9.9
TD · Q1 0:25
Zach Wilson run for 4 yds for a TD, (Jake Oldroyd KICK)
+6.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com