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TA&M

Texas A&M 41 at North Carolina 27

UNC
2020 · Capital One Orange Bowl · Jan 2, 2021 · Hard Rock Stadium
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Win probability · UNC
modelUNC aheadTA&M aheadconfidence bandkey playUNC scoreTA&M score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGFGTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 2:24 · Josh Henderson run for no gain to the NCaro 34
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+46.5+23.30−23.3−46.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 152Pregame prior−1.0Home team on offense−18.9Score differential−2.9Garbage-time factor−11.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−3.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−3.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 4:56: Sam Howell pass complete to Dazz Newsome for 28 yds for a TD, (Grayson Atkins KICK) — UNC win probability +11.2 pts (now 45%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 8:01: Sam Howell pass complete to Josh Downs for 10 yds for a TD, (Grayson Atkins KICK) — UNC win probability +15.7 pts (now 55%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 13:51: Sam Howell pass complete to Josh Downs for 75 yds for a TD, (Grayson Atkins KICK) — UNC win probability +30.3 pts (now 78%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 10:11: Kellen Mond run for 4 yds for a TD, (Seth Small KICK) — TA&M win probability +27.4 pts (now 58%) (top driver: TA&M has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 3:44: Devon Achane run for 76 yds for a TD, (Seth Small KICK) — TA&M win probability +35.8 pts (now 87%) (top driver: TA&M has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UNC made the numbers' call on 7 of 9TA&M made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q1 13:27TA&M 4th & 3 at TA&M 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.5%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:11TA&M 4th & 1 at UNC 9, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 70.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    70.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    70.4%−0.2
    89% to make
    Punt
    69.7%−1.0
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:31UNC 4th & 12 at TA&M 12, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 28.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.8%−0.4
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    28.2%
    86% to make
    Punt
    26.6%−1.6
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:57TA&M 4th & 4 at TA&M 31, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.7%−0.3
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.0%
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:52UNC 4th & 3 at TA&M 44, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 32.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    32.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    31.3%−1.2
    27% to make
    Punt
    31.8%−0.6
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:09UNC 4th & 9 at TA&M 15, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 33.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.5%−0.7
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    33.2%
    83% to make
    Punt
    29.1%−4.0
    average punt
  7. Q2 7:40TA&M 4th & 4 at UNC 7, up 1
    Close callKicked a field goal · 66.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.6%
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    66.2%−0.4
    91% to make
    Punt
    61.3%−5.3
    average punt
  8. Q3 13:30UNC 4th & 5 at UNC 30, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.3%−0.6
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.9%
    average punt
  9. Q3 11:26TA&M 4th & 13 at TA&M 22, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.4%−3.8
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.2%
    average punt
  10. Q3 6:35TA&M 4th & 4 at TA&M 31, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.4%−1.2
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.6%
    average punt
  11. Q3 4:33UNC 4th & 1 at UNC 33, up 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.1 ptsPunted · 52.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.6%−2.1
    average punt
  12. Q4 14:02TA&M 4th & 5 at UNC 5, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 43.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.5%−0.4
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    42.9%
    92% to make
    Punt
    29.8%−13.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 9:06UNC 4th & 9 at UNC 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.1%−4.9
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.0%
    average punt
  14. Q4 8:01TA&M 4th & 6 at TA&M 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.6%−4.2
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.7%
    average punt
  15. Q4 5:07UNC 4th & 15 at TA&M 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.4%−4.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    48.6%−4.0
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    52.6%
    average punt
  16. Q4 2:24UNC 4th & 1 at UNC 34, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 19.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    17.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    11.8%−6.0
    average punt
  17. Q4 0:31UNC 4th & 27 at UNC 25, down 14
    Close callWent for it · 2.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.2%−0.1
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.3%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UNC made the numbers' call on 3 of 3TA&M made the numbers' call on 3 of 5
  1. Q1 9:11TA&M Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 4:56UNC Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:20TA&M Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 8:01UNC Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    51.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 13:51UNC Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.6%−0.5
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 10:11TA&M Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.8%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.8%
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 3:44TA&M Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.9%−0.7
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.5%
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 1:34TA&M Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.3%−0.7
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TA&MDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:2574% → 73%
Q1 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
26.4%
Isaiah Spiller run for 3 yds to the TexAM 28Similar
Q1 14:25
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+4
26.6%
Isaiah Spiller run for 4 yds to the TexAM 32Similar
Q1 13:35
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
27.0%
Kellen Mond pass incomplete to Ainias SmithSimilar
Q1 13:27
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
27.2%
Nik Constantinou punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Dazz Newsome at the NCaro 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 2INT
4 plays · -7 yds · 0:4027% → 27%
Q1 13:22
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-2
27.2%
British Brooks run for a loss of 2 yards to the NCaro 16Similar
Q1 12:49
2ND & 12
OWN 16
0
27.4%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Garrett WalstonSimilar
Q1 12:49
3RD & 12
OWN 16
-5
27.3%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, False Start (Brian Anderson) to the NCaro 11Similar
Q1 12:42
3RD & 17
OWN 13
-25
27.3%
Sam Howell pass intercepted Andre White Jr. return for 10 yds to the NCaro 21 TEXAS A&M Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (15 Yards) to the NCaro 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 3TD
7 plays · 28 yds · 3:2473% → 73%
Q1 12:35
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+6
27.2%
Isaiah Spiller run for 6 yds to the NCaro 22Similar
Q1 12:10
2ND & 4
OPP 22
+3
27.4%
Isaiah Spiller run for 3 yds to the NCaro 19Similar
Q1 11:16
3RD & 1
OPP 19
+1
27.8%
Isaiah Spiller run for 1 yd to the NCaro 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:49
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+2
27.8%
Isaiah Spiller run for 2 yds to the NCaro 16Similar
Q1 10:08
2ND & 8
OPP 16
0
28.1%
Kellen Mond pass incomplete to Hezekiah JonesSimilar
Q1 9:59
3RD & 8
OPP 16
+7
28.3%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Isaiah Spiller for 7 yds to the NCaro 9Similar
Q1 9:11
4TH & 1
OPP 9
+9
27.2%
Isaiah Spiller run for 9 yds for a TD, (Seth Small KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 4FG
14 plays · 63 yds · 4:2827% → 30%
Q1 8:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+32
27.3%
British Brooks run for 17 yds to the NCaro 42 for a 1ST down TEXAS A&M Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the TexAM 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:39
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-1
27.9%
British Brooks run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexAM 44Similar
Q1 8:10
2ND & 11
OPP 44
+14
28.0%
Sam Howell pass complete to Garrett Walston for 14 yds to the TexAM 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:52
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+5
28.5%
Josh Henderson run for 5 yds to the TexAM 25Similar
Q1 7:31
2ND & 5
OPP 25
+13
28.5%
Sam Howell run for 13 yds to the TexAM 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:26
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-5
28.6%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, False Start (Asim Richards) to the TexAM 17Similar
Q1 7:06
1ST & 15
OPP 17
+6
28.6%
British Brooks run for 6 yds to the TexAM 11Similar
Q1 6:28
2ND & 9
OPP 14
+4
28.8%
Sam Howell run for a loss of 3 yards to the TexAM 14 for a 1ST down TEXAS A&M Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Hezekiah Jones) to the TexAM 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
28.9%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Khafre BrownSimilar
Q1 5:59
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
-2
29.0%
Sam Howell sacked by Buddy Johnson for a loss of 2 yards to the TexAM 9Similar
Q1 5:08
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
-3
28.5%
Josh Downs run for a loss of 3 yards to the TexAM 12Similar
Q1 4:31
4TH & GOAL
OPP 12
+29
29.5%
Grayson Atkins 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 2:2570% → 69%
Q1 4:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
29.6%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Jalen Wydermyer for 4 yds to the TexAM 29Similar
Q1 3:40
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+2
29.5%
Kellen Mond run for 2 yds to the TexAM 31Similar
Q1 2:52
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
29.9%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Isaiah Spiller for no gain to the TexAM 31Similar
Q1 1:57
4TH & 4
OWN 31
+23
30.6%
Nik Constantinou punt for 43 yds , Dazz Newsome returns for 23 yds to the NCaro 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 6FG
12 plays · 36 yds · 5:4132% → 35%
Q1 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
31.6%
British Brooks run for 4 yds to the TexAM 47Similar
Q1 1:23
2ND & 6
OPP 47
+1
31.9%
British Brooks run for 1 yd to the TexAM 46Similar
Q1 0:37
3RD & 5
OPP 46
+2
32.0%
Sam Howell pass complete to Josh Henderson for 2 yds to the TexAM 44Similar
Q2 14:52
4TH & 3
OPP 44
+15
31.5%
Sam Howell run for 15 yds to the TexAM 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:06
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+5
32.8%
Josh Henderson run for 5 yds to the TexAM 24Similar
Q2 13:42
2ND & 5
OPP 24
+3
32.9%
Josh Henderson run for 3 yds to the TexAM 21Similar
Q2 13:00
3RD & 2
OPP 21
+5
32.4%
British Brooks run for 5 yds to the TexAM 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:35
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
33.4%
Sam Howell pass complete to Garrett Walston for no gain to the TexAM 16Similar
Q2 11:54
2ND & 10
OPP 16
0
33.7%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Emery SimmonsSimilar
Q2 11:46
3RD & 10
OPP 16
+1
32.9%
Josh Henderson run for 1 yd to the TexAM 15Similar
Q2 11:09
4TH & 9
OPP 15
+32
34.7%
Grayson Atkins 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 7FG
8 plays · 68 yds · 3:2067% → 70%
Q2 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+31
32.9%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Ainias Smith for 31 yds to the NCaro 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:29
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+4
31.2%
Kellen Mond run for 4 yds to the NCaro 40Similar
Q2 9:43
2ND & 6
OPP 26
+27
30.4%
Kellen Mond run for 14 yds to the NCaro 26 for a 1ST down NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Personal Foul (Trey Morrison) to the NCaro 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:16
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
30.5%
Kellen Mond pass incomplete to Ainias SmithSimilar
Q2 9:08
2ND & 10
OPP 13
+2
30.5%
Kellen Mond run for 2 yds to the NCaro 11Similar
Q2 8:19
3RD & 8
OPP 11
+4
31.4%
Kellen Mond run for 4 yds to the NCaro 7Similar
Q2 7:40
4TH & 4
OPP 7
+25
30.0%
Seth Small 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 8TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 2:3931% → 45%
Q2 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
30.9%
British Brooks run for 1 yd to the NCaro 26Similar
Q2 7:05
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
30.8%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Khafre BrownSimilar
Q2 6:59
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+10
30.0%
Sam Howell pass complete to Dazz Newsome for 10 yds to the NCaro 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:34
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
31.9%
Sam Howell run for 1 yd to the NCaro 37Similar
Q2 6:06
2ND & 9
OWN 37
0
31.7%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Justin OlsonSimilar
Q2 6:06
3RD & 9
OWN 37
+5
31.0%
TEXAS A&M Penalty, Defensive Offside (Jayden Peevy) to the NCaro 42Similar
Q2 5:56
3RD & 4
OWN 42
+12
32.5%
Sam Howell pass complete to Dazz Newsome for 12 yds to the TexAM 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:30
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+18
34.3%
Sam Howell run for 18 yds to the TexAM 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:56
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+28
45.4%
Sam Howell pass complete to Dazz Newsome for 28 yds for a TD, (Grayson Atkins KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 9TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 4:2759% → 73%
Q2 4:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-4
40.9%
Kellen Mond sacked by Tomon Fox for a loss of 4 yards to the TexAM 21Similar
Q2 4:08
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+7
41.9%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Isaiah Spiller for 7 yds to the TexAM 28Similar
Q2 3:22
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+27
42.7%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Chase Lane for 27 yds to the NCaro 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:52
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-8
38.8%
Kellen Mond sacked by Trey Morrison for a loss of 8 yards to the TexAM 47Similar
Q2 1:48
2ND & 18
OWN 47
+14
41.9%
Kellen Mond run for 14 yds to the NCaro 39Similar
Q2 1:04
3RD & 4
OPP 39
+13
39.5%
Isaiah Spiller run for 13 yds to the NCaro 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:33
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+23
38.0%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Hezekiah Jones for 23 yds to the NCaro 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
27.0%
Isaiah Spiller run for 3 yds for a TD, (Seth Small KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 10END OF HALF
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0032% → 32%
Q2 0:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
31.7%
British Brooks run for no gain to the NCaro 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:2134% → 33%
Q3 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
34.3%
British Brooks run for 3 yds to the NCaro 28Similar
Q3 14:14
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+2
34.7%
Sam Howell pass complete to Dazz Newsome for 2 yds to the NCaro 30Similar
Q3 13:42
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
34.1%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Dazz NewsomeSimilar
Q3 13:30
4TH & 5
OWN 30
+4
33.0%
Ben Kiernan punt for 49 yds , Ainias Smith returns for 4 yds to the TexAM 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 1:5367% → 64%
Q3 13:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
33.1%
TEXAS A&M Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the TexAM 15Similar
Q3 12:48
1ST & 20
OWN 15
+2
33.6%
Isaiah Spiller run for 2 yds to the TexAM 17Similar
Q3 12:14
2ND & 18
OWN 17
0
34.3%
Kellen Mond pass incomplete to Chase LaneSimilar
Q3 12:04
3RD & 18
OWN 17
+5
35.4%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Isaiah Spiller for 5 yds to the TexAM 22Similar
Q3 11:26
4TH & 13
OWN 22
0
36.2%
Nik Constantinou punt for 44 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NCaro 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 13TD
10 plays · 66 yds · 3:1835% → 55%
Q3 11:19
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+26
35.2%
Sam Howell pass complete to Khafre Brown for 26 yds to the TexAM 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:58
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
38.7%
Sam Howell run for no gain to the TexAM 40Similar
Q3 10:28
2ND & 10
OPP 40
0
38.8%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Antoine GreenSimilar
Q3 10:19
3RD & 10
OPP 40
+14
37.8%
Sam Howell pass complete to Khafre Brown for 14 yds to the TexAM 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:55
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+9
41.1%
Sam Howell pass complete to Garrett Walston for 9 yds to the TexAM 17Similar
Q3 9:11
2ND & 1
OPP 17
+1
41.4%
Josh Henderson run for 1 yd to the TexAM 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:48
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
41.6%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Garrett WalstonSimilar
Q3 8:36
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+1
41.7%
Sam Howell run for 1 yd to the TexAM 15Similar
Q3 8:14
3RD & 9
OPP 15
+5
39.5%
TEXAS A&M Penalty, Substitution Infraction (5 Yards) to the TexAM 10Similar
Q3 8:01
3RD & 4
OPP 10
+10
55.2%
Sam Howell pass complete to Josh Downs for 10 yds for a TD, (Grayson Atkins KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:2150% → 47%
Q3 7:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
49.8%
Kellen Mond pass incomplete to Hezekiah JonesSimilar
Q3 7:45
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
50.2%
Devon Achane run for 7 yds to the TexAM 32Similar
Q3 7:35
3RD & 3
OWN 32
-1
50.0%
Kellen Mond sacked by Tony Grimes for a loss of 1 yard to the TexAM 31Similar
Q3 6:35
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
52.6%
Nik Constantinou punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Dazz Newsome at the NCaro 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:5553% → 53%
Q3 6:28
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+6
53.0%
British Brooks run for 6 yds to the NCaro 30Similar
Q3 5:59
2ND & 4
OWN 30
+1
54.7%
Sam Howell pass complete to Antoine Green for 1 yd to the NCaro 31Similar
Q3 5:19
3RD & 3
OWN 31
+2
53.4%
Sam Howell run for 2 yds to the NCaro 33Similar
Q3 4:33
4TH & 1
OWN 33
+1
52.5%
Ben Kiernan punt for 47 yds , Ainias Smith returns for 1 yd to the TexAM 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 16FG
15 plays · 74 yds · 5:2547% → 57%
Q3 4:27
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+4
52.9%
Isaiah Spiller run for 4 yds to the TexAM 25Similar
Q3 3:49
2ND & 6
OWN 25
+11
52.9%
Devon Achane run for 11 yds to the TexAM 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
52.2%
Kellen Mond pass incomplete to Jalen WydermyerSimilar
Q3 3:14
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+18
54.2%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Ainias Smith for 18 yds to the NCaro 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:39
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-10
50.2%
TEXAS A&M Penalty, Offensive Holding (Ryan Renick) to the TexAM 44Similar
Q3 2:09
1ST & 20
OWN 44
+15
54.4%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Devon Achane for 15 yds to the NCaro 41Similar
Q3 1:50
2ND & 5
OPP 41
0
50.0%
Devon Achane run for no gain to the NCaro 41Similar
Q3 1:07
3RD & 5
OPP 41
+5
51.6%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Defensive Offside (Desmond Evans) to the NCaro 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:42
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+3
51.2%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Ainias Smith for 3 yds to the NCaro 33Similar
Q3 0:01
2ND & 7
OPP 19
+24
49.5%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Ainias Smith for 14 yds to the NCaro 19 for a 1ST down NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Personal Foul (Kyler McMichael) to the NCaro 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+4
49.6%
Devon Achane run for 4 yds to the NCaro 5Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
-5
49.6%
TEXAS A&M Penalty, False Start (Carson Green) to the NCaro 10Similar
Q4 14:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+5
49.6%
Kellen Mond run for 5 yds to the NCaro 5Similar
Q4 14:06
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
53.3%
Kellen Mond pass incomplete to Jalen WydermyerSimilar
Q4 14:02
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+23
43.5%
Seth Small 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 17TD
2 plays · 75 yds · 0:0078% → 78%
Q4 13:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+75
78.2%
Sam Howell pass complete to Josh Downs for 75 yds for a TD, (Grayson Atkins KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 18TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 3:3427% → 58%
Q4 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
73.4%
Kellen Mond pass incomplete to Hezekiah JonesSimilar
Q4 13:40
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
73.6%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Ainias Smith for 5 yds to the TexAM 30Similar
Q4 13:08
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+10
73.9%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Hezekiah Jones for 10 yds to the TexAM 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:27
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+54
72.5%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Ainias Smith for 54 yds to the NCaro 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
68.6%
Devon Achane run for 3 yds to the NCaro 3Similar
Q4 11:03
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
-1
69.2%
Devon Achane run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCaro 4Similar
Q4 10:11
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
41.8%
Kellen Mond run for 4 yds for a TD, (Seth Small KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:5852% → 49%
Q4 10:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
51.7%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Khafre BrownSimilar
Q4 10:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
51.4%
Sam Howell pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:51
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+1
49.3%
Sam Howell pass complete to Dazz Newsome for 1 yd to the NCaro 26Similar
Q4 9:06
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
48.6%
Ben Kiernan punt for 46 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TexAM 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:5953% → 49%
Q4 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
47.2%
Kellen Mond pass incomplete to Jalen WydermyerSimilar
Q4 8:51
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+4
48.1%
Devon Achane run for 4 yds to the TexAM 32Similar
Q4 8:09
3RD & 6
OWN 32
0
48.5%
Kellen Mond pass incomplete to Jalen WydermyerSimilar
Q4 8:01
4TH & 6
OWN 32
0
51.1%
Nik Constantinou punt for 28 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NCaro 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 21PUNT
6 plays · 14 yds · 2:4756% → 52%
Q4 7:54
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
56.3%
British Brooks run for 4 yds to the NCaro 44Similar
Q4 7:14
2ND & 6
OWN 44
+15
57.7%
TEXAS A&M Penalty, Personal Foul (Bobby Brown III) to the TexAM 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:07
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-2
59.1%
Sam Howell pass complete to Josh Downs for a loss of 2 yards to the TexAM 43Similar
Q4 6:28
2ND & 12
OPP 43
0
57.4%
British Brooks run for no gain to the TexAM 43Similar
Q4 5:48
3RD & 12
OPP 43
-3
56.0%
Sam Howell sacked by McKinnley Jackson for a loss of 3 yards to the TexAM 46Similar
Q4 5:07
4TH & 15
OPP 46
0
51.7%
Ben Kiernan punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Ainias Smith at the TexAM 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 22TD
3 plays · 87 yds · 1:1852% → 87%
Q4 5:02
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+2
48.3%
Devon Achane run for 2 yds to the TexAM 15Similar
Q4 4:28
2ND & 8
OWN 15
+9
48.7%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Devon Achane for 9 yds to the TexAM 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:44
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+76
12.9%
Devon Achane run for 76 yds for a TD, (Seth Small KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 23DOWNS
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:1420% → 19%
Q4 3:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
20.3%
British Brooks run for 9 yds to the NCaro 34Similar
Q4 3:10
2ND & 1
OWN 34
0
23.3%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to British BrooksSimilar
Q4 2:59
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
21.4%
British Brooks run for no gain to the NCaro 34Similar
Q4 2:24
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
18.7%
Josh Henderson run for no gain to the NCaro 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 24TD
4 plays · 34 yds · 0:4091% → 98%
Q4 2:14
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+11
8.6%
Devon Achane run for 11 yds to the NCaro 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:39
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+22
7.8%
Devon Achane run for 22 yds to the NCaro 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
2.0%
Devon Achane run for 1 yd for a TD, (Seth Small KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 25DOWNS
9 plays · 15 yds · 0:573% → 1%
Q4 1:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
2.5%
Sam Howell pass complete to Garrett Walston for 9 yds to the NCaro 34Similar
Q4 1:07
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+8
2.5%
Sam Howell pass complete to Josh Downs for 8 yds to the NCaro 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
2.5%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Justin OlsonSimilar
Q4 0:50
2ND & 10
OWN 42
-4
2.5%
Sam Howell sacked by Tyree Johnson for a loss of 4 yards to the NCaro 38Similar
Q4 0:38
3RD & 14
OWN 38
-13
2.3%
Sam Howell sacked by Tyree Johnson and Andre White Jr. for a loss of 13 yards to the NCaro 25Similar
Q4 0:31
4TH & 27
OWN 25
+15
1.1%
Sam Howell pass complete to Dazz Newsome for 15 yds to the NCaro 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 26END OF GAME
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q4 0:29
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-1
1.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCaro 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 3:44
Devon Achane run for 76 yds for a TD, (Seth Small KICK)
-35.8
TD · Q4 13:51
Sam Howell pass complete to Josh Downs for 75 yds for a TD, (Grayson Atkins KICK)
+30.3
TD · Q4 10:11
Kellen Mond run for 4 yds for a TD, (Seth Small KICK)
-27.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com