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MISS

Ole Miss 26 at Indiana 20

IU
2020 · Outback Bowl · Jan 2, 2021 · Raymond James Stadium
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Win probability · IU
modelIU aheadMISS aheadconfidence bandkey playIU scoreMISS score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGFGTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 1:44 · Mac Brown punt for 52 yds, fair catch by Reese Taylor at the Ind 5
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+35.5+17.80−17.8−35.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 91Home team on offense−9.7Pregame prior+8.3Score differential−5.2Garbage-time factor−2.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.8Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−1.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 7:17: Matt Corral pass complete to Casey Kelly for 5 yds for a TD (Luke Logan KICK) — MISS win probability +7.7 pts (now 52%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 9:20: Snoop Conner run for 4 yds for a TD (Luke Logan KICK) — MISS win probability +15.6 pts (now 77%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 14:56: Stevie Scott III run for 3 yds for a TD (Charles Campbell KICK) — IU win probability +22.0 pts (now 44%) (top driver: IU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 5:58: Stevie Scott III run for 2 yds for a TD (Charles Campbell KICK) — IU win probability +36.9 pts (now 65%) (top driver: IU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 4:12: Matt Corral pass complete to Dontario Drummond for 3 yds for a TD (Luke Logan PAT MISSED) — MISS win probability +27.9 pts (now 86%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
IU made the numbers' call on 6 of 9MISS made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q1 12:56MISS 4th & 9 at IU 9, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 30.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.9%−0.1
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    30.0%
    89% to make
    Punt
    29.5%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:36IU 4th & 11 at IU 38, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.1%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.2%
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:54MISS 4th & 4 at MISS 35, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.9%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.0%
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:47IU 4th & 6 at MISS 32, down 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 67.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.3%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    67.2%−0.1
    51% to make
    Punt
    66.9%−0.4
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:23MISS 4th & 7 at IU 7, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 33.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.9%−0.2
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    33.0%
    91% to make
    Punt
    30.8%−2.2
    average punt
  6. Q2 13:17IU 4th & 2 at IU 40, down 3
    Close callPunted · 65.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.3%−0.5
    average punt
  7. Q2 10:18MISS 4th & 1 at IU 40, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 36.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    36.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    34.0%−2.4
    34% to make
    Punt
    34.3%−2.0
    average punt
  8. Q2 8:00MISS 4th & 1 at IU 11, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 38.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    38.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    36.8%−1.9
    87% to make
    Punt
    31.6%−7.1
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:44MISS 4th & 11 at MISS 43, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.6%−0.6
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.2%
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:53IU 4th & 10 at IU 17, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.1%−2.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.2%
    average punt
  11. Q3 12:53IU 4th & 6 at MISS 35, down 10
    Close callKicked a field goal · 42.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.2%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    42.6%−0.6
    45% to make
    Punt
    41.7%−1.5
    average punt
  12. Q3 6:41MISS 4th & 6 at IU 47, up 14
    Close callPunted · 76.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.5%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.5%−<0.1
    average punt
  13. Q3 5:17IU 4th & 1 at IU 29, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 25.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    26.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    24.5%−2.3
    average punt
  14. Q3 1:08IU 4th & 1 at MISS 36, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 22.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    22.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    19.1%−3.0
    42% to make
    Punt
    18.6%−3.5
    average punt
  15. Q4 11:38MISS 4th & 6 at IU 20, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 71.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.8%−0.4
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    71.2%
    75% to make
    Punt
    61.9%−9.3
    average punt
  16. Q4 8:00IU 4th & 2 at MISS 17, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 31.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    31.0%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    29.5%−1.4
    80% to make
    Punt
    15.6%−15.3
    average punt
  17. Q4 0:55IU 4th & 18 at MISS 41, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 18.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    12.7%
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    11.3%−1.4
    32% to make
    Punt
    10.5%−2.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
IU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2MISS made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q2 7:17MISS Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    46.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    46.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 9:20MISS Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 14:56IU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    30.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    30.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 5:58IU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    51.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    50.0%−1.0
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 4:12MISS Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Close callKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    76.7%−0.7
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.4%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MISSDrive 1FG
9 plays · 57 yds · 1:4634% → 35%
Q1 14:42
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+21
65.7%
Matt Corral pass complete to Jadon Jackson for 21 yds to the Ind 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:28
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+3
65.7%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 3 yds to the Ind 42Similar
Q1 14:20
2ND & 7
OPP 42
+35
65.6%
Matt Corral pass complete to Dontario Drummond for 35 yds to the Ind 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
65.5%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 5 yds to the Ind 2Similar
Q1 13:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
-15
65.5%
OLE MISS Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Nick Broeker) to the Ind 17Similar
Q1 13:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 17
0
65.5%
Matt Corral pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:05
3RD & GOAL
OPP 17
+8
65.5%
Matt Corral run for 8 yds to the Ind 9Similar
Q1 12:56
4TH & GOAL
OPP 9
+26
65.4%
Luke Logan 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 2PUNT
7 plays · 13 yds · 2:1365% → 65%
Q1 12:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
65.4%
Jack Tuttle pass complete to Whop Philyor for 14 yds to the Ind 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:10
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-8
65.5%
Jack Tuttle pass complete to Whop Philyor for 2 yds to the Ind 41 INDIANA Penalty, Offensive Holding (Ty Fryfogle) to the Ind 31Similar
Q1 11:36
1ST & 18
OWN 31
+1
65.2%
Jack Tuttle pass complete to Whop Philyor for 1 yd to the Ind 32Similar
Q1 11:23
2ND & 17
OWN 32
+6
65.1%
Jack Tuttle pass complete to Whop Philyor for 6 yds to the Ind 38Similar
Q1 10:46
3RD & 11
OWN 38
0
65.0%
Jack Tuttle pass incomplete to Whop PhilyorSimilar
Q1 10:36
4TH & 11
OWN 38
+4
64.8%
Haydon Whitehead punt for 52 yds , Dontario Drummond returns for 4 yds to the Miss 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 21 yds · 1:3635% → 35%
Q1 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+5
65.0%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 5 yds to the Miss 19Similar
Q1 10:07
2ND & 5
OWN 19
+10
65.0%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 10 yds to the Miss 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:43
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
64.8%
Matt Corral pass incomplete to John Rhys PlumleeSimilar
Q1 9:40
2ND & 10
OWN 29
0
64.9%
Matt Corral pass incomplete to Dontario DrummondSimilar
Q1 9:31
3RD & 10
OWN 29
+6
65.0%
Matt Corral pass complete to Snoop Conner for 6 yds to the Miss 35Similar
Q1 8:54
4TH & 4
OWN 35
0
64.9%
Mac Brown punt for 46 yds , Reese Taylor returns for no gain to the Ind 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 4FG
13 plays · 49 yds · 5:5864% → 65%
Q1 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+3
64.4%
Stevie Scott III run for 3 yds to the Ind 22Similar
Q1 8:40
2ND & 7
OWN 22
+6
64.4%
Jack Tuttle pass complete to Whop Philyor for 6 yds to the Ind 28Similar
Q1 7:37
3RD & 1
OWN 28
+10
64.2%
Stevie Scott III run for 10 yds to the Ind 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+9
64.5%
Jack Tuttle pass complete to Ty Fryfogle for 9 yds to the Ind 47Similar
Q1 6:35
2ND & 1
OWN 47
+5
64.9%
Jack Tuttle pass complete to Ty Fryfogle for 5 yds to the Miss 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+8
64.7%
Whop Philyor run for 8 yds to the Miss 40Similar
Q1 5:41
2ND & 2
OPP 40
+4
64.7%
David Ellis run for 4 yds to the Miss 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:08
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
64.6%
David Ellis run for no gain to the Miss 36Similar
Q1 4:27
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+3
64.5%
Tim Baldwin Jr. run for 3 yds to the Miss 33Similar
Q1 4:02
3RD & 7
OPP 33
+5
64.3%
Tuttle, Jack pass incomplete to Marshall, Miles, PENALTY OLEMISS offside (Jones, Jacquez) 5 yards to the OLEMISS28, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:51
3RD & 2
OPP 28
+1
64.3%
Stevie Scott III run for 1 yd to the Miss 27Similar
Q1 3:16
4TH & 1
OPP 27
-5
63.7%
Scott III, Stevie rush for 2 yards to the OLEMISS25, PENALTY INDIANA illegal shift 5 yards to the OLEMISS32, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 2:47
4TH & 6
OPP 32
+50
64.8%
Charles Campbell 50 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 5FG
14 plays · 68 yds · 2:1936% → 38%
Q1 2:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
64.2%
Matt Corral pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:37
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
63.8%
Matt Corral pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:30
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+20
64.2%
Matt Corral pass complete to Casey Kelly for 20 yds to the Miss 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:16
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+10
62.8%
Matt Corral pass complete to Jonathan Mingo for 10 yds to the Ind 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:10
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
62.5%
Matt Corral pass incomplete to Dontario DrummondSimilar
Q1 2:01
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+15
62.4%
Matt Corral pass complete to Henry Parrish Jr. for 15 yds to the Ind 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:27
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-3
61.9%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for a loss of 3 yards to the Ind 33Similar
Q1 1:07
2ND & 13
OPP 33
+13
62.1%
Matt Corral pass complete to Casey Kelly for 13 yds to the Ind 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:49
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+13
61.6%
Matt Corral pass complete to Jonathan Mingo for 13 yds to the Ind 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
61.5%
Matt Corral pass incomplete to Jadon JacksonSimilar
Q1 0:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
61.5%
Matt Corral pass incomplete to Dontario DrummondSimilar
Q1 0:26
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
0
62.0%
Matt Corral pass incomplete to Jonathan MingoSimilar
Q1 0:23
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+24
62.0%
Luke Logan 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:4362% → 62%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
62.3%
Jack Tuttle pass complete to Whop Philyor for no gain to the Ind 32Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 10
OWN 32
-12
62.2%
Jack Tuttle pass complete to Whop Philyor for a loss of 12 yards to the Ind 20Similar
Q2 13:58
3RD & 22
OWN 20
+20
61.0%
Jack Tuttle pass complete to Stevie Scott III for 20 yds to the Ind 40Similar
Q2 13:17
4TH & 2
OWN 40
+13
62.1%
Haydon Whitehead punt for 49 yds , Jonathan Mingo returns for 13 yds to the Miss 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 7TD
19 plays · 76 yds · 5:5339% → 52%
Q2 13:10
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-10
61.1%
Conner, Snoop rush for 11 yards to the OLEMISS35, PENALTY OLEMISS holding 10 yards to the OLEMISS14, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:53
1ST & 20
OWN 14
+10
61.1%
Matt Corral pass complete to Chase Rogers for 10 yds to the Miss 24Similar
Q2 12:36
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+4
61.0%
Matt Corral pass complete to Dontario Drummond for 4 yds to the Miss 28Similar
Q2 12:30
3RD & 6
OWN 28
+13
61.3%
Matt Corral pass complete to John Rhys Plumlee for 13 yds to the Miss 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:57
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
59.6%
Snoop Conner run for 3 yds to the Miss 44Similar
Q2 11:38
2ND & 7
OWN 44
+7
59.4%
Matt Corral pass complete to Jonathan Mingo for 7 yds to the Ind 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:13
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
59.0%
Snoop Conner run for 3 yds to the Ind 46Similar
Q2 10:40
2ND & 7
OPP 46
0
58.8%
Matt Corral pass complete to Jadon Jackson for no gain to the Ind 46Similar
Q2 10:24
3RD & 7
OPP 46
+6
59.0%
Matt Corral pass complete to Jadon Jackson for 6 yds to the Ind 40Similar
Q2 10:18
4TH & 1
OPP 40
+1
59.9%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 1 yd to the Ind 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:55
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-1
58.2%
Matt Corral sacked by Micah McFadden for a loss of 1 yard to the Ind 40Similar
Q2 9:41
2ND & 11
OPP 40
+3
58.1%
Matt Corral pass complete to Snoop Conner for 3 yds to the Ind 37Similar
Q2 9:12
3RD & 8
OPP 37
+17
58.3%
Matt Corral run for 17 yds to the Ind 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:37
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+4
56.9%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 4 yds to the Ind 16Similar
Q2 8:21
2ND & 6
OPP 16
0
56.8%
Matt Corral pass incomplete to Chase RogersSimilar
Q2 8:15
3RD & 6
OPP 16
+5
57.6%
Matt Corral pass complete to John Rhys Plumlee for 5 yds to the Ind 11Similar
Q2 8:00
4TH & 1
OPP 11
+5
57.7%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 5 yds to the Ind 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
55.5%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 1 yd to the Ind 5Similar
Q2 7:17
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
47.8%
Matt Corral pass complete to Casey Kelly for 5 yds for a TD (Luke Logan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 8FUMBLE
13 plays · 49 yds · 4:4449% → 47%
Q2 7:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
49.0%
Jack Tuttle pass incomplete to Stevie Scott IIISimilar
Q2 7:06
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+20
48.8%
Jack Tuttle pass complete to Ty Fryfogle for 20 yds to the Ind 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:38
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
49.9%
Jack Tuttle pass incomplete to Ty FryfogleSimilar
Q2 6:30
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+3
49.5%
David Ellis run for 3 yds to the Ind 48Similar
Q2 5:53
3RD & 7
OWN 48
+11
48.8%
Jack Tuttle pass complete to Whop Philyor for 11 yds to the Miss 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:16
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+6
49.9%
Jack Tuttle run for 6 yds to the Miss 35Similar
Q2 4:41
2ND & 4
OPP 35
+2
50.6%
Jack Tuttle pass complete to Whop Philyor for 2 yds to the Miss 33Similar
Q2 3:59
3RD & 2
OPP 33
+7
48.9%
Jack Tuttle run for 7 yds to the Miss 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:23
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
49.8%
Jack Tuttle run for no gain to the Miss 26Similar
Q2 2:43
2ND & 10
OPP 26
0
49.0%
Jack Tuttle pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:29
3RD & 10
OPP 26
-29
46.8%
Jack Tuttle pass intercepted Otis Reese return for 29 yds to the Miss 44 Otis Reese fumbled, forced by Peyton Hendershot, recovered by Miss Otis ReeseSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:3157% → 55%
Q2 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+3
42.7%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 3 yds to the Miss 47Similar
Q2 2:10
2ND & 7
OWN 47
0
42.7%
Matt Corral pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:50
3RD & 7
OWN 47
-4
42.5%
Matt Corral sacked by Cam Jones for a loss of 4 yards to the Miss 43Similar
Q2 1:44
4TH & 11
OWN 43
0
45.0%
Mac Brown punt for 52 yds, fair catch by Reese Taylor at the Ind 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 10PUNT
8 plays · 12 yds · 0:4841% → 41%
Q2 1:41
1ST & 10
OWN 5
0
41.3%
Jack Tuttle pass incomplete to Peyton HendershotSimilar
Q2 1:36
2ND & 10
OWN 5
-2
41.1%
Jack Tuttle sacked by Ryder Anderson for a loss of 2 yards to the Ind 3Similar
Q2 1:29
3RD & 12
OWN 3
+14
40.6%
Stevie Scott III run for 14 yds to the Ind 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:16
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
41.9%
Jack Tuttle pass incomplete to Miles MarshallSimilar
Q2 1:11
2ND & 10
OWN 17
0
41.5%
Jack Tuttle pass incomplete to Whop PhilyorSimilar
Q2 1:05
3RD & 10
OWN 17
0
40.9%
Jack Tuttle pass incomplete to Ty FryfogleSimilar
Q2 0:53
4TH & 10
OWN 17
0
40.5%
Haydon Whitehead punt for 64 yds, downed at the Miss 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 11DOWNS
8 plays · 49 yds · 0:4357% → 63%
Q2 0:43
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+27
43.0%
Matt Corral pass complete to Dontario Drummond for 27 yds to the Miss 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:26
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
40.4%
Matt Corral pass complete to Casey Kelly for 5 yds to the Ind 49Similar
Q2 0:18
2ND & 5
OPP 49
+6
40.0%
Matt Corral pass complete to Casey Kelly for 6 yds to the Ind 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:07
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+11
39.4%
Matt Corral pass complete to Jadon Jackson for 11 yds to the Ind 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:02
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
37.4%
Matt Corral pass complete to Casey Kelly for no gain to the Ind 32Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+49
37.5%
Luke Logan 49 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Jerome JohnsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 12FG
11 plays · 40 yds · 2:0442% → 47%
Q3 14:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
41.8%
Jack Tuttle pass incomplete to Whop PhilyorSimilar
Q3 14:49
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+13
41.6%
Jack Tuttle pass complete to Miles Marshall for 13 yds to the Ind 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:28
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
42.6%
Stevie Scott III run for 4 yds to the Ind 42Similar
Q3 14:02
2ND & 6
OWN 42
0
43.0%
Jack Tuttle pass incomplete to Peyton HendershotSimilar
Q3 13:57
3RD & 6
OWN 42
+4
41.7%
Tuttle, Jack pass incomplete to Philyor, Whop, PENALTY OLEMISS pass interference (Smith, Keidron) 4 yards to the INDIANA46, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN INDIANA.Similar
Q3 13:51
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+15
42.5%
Tuttle, Jack pass incomplete to Fryfogle, Ty, PENALTY OLEMISS pass interference (Smith, Keidron) 15 yards to the OLEMISS39, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN INDIANA.Similar
Q3 13:44
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
43.4%
Jack Tuttle pass incomplete to David EllisSimilar
Q3 13:31
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+4
43.1%
Sampson James run for 4 yds to the Miss 35Similar
Q3 12:58
3RD & 6
OPP 35
0
42.1%
Jack Tuttle pass incomplete to Ty FryfogleSimilar
Q3 12:53
4TH & 6
OPP 35
+53
47.1%
Charles Campbell 53 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 13TD
13 plays · 87 yds · 3:2556% → 77%
Q3 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+4
44.4%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 4 yds to the Miss 17Similar
Q3 12:18
2ND & 6
OWN 17
+3
44.1%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 3 yds to the Miss 20Similar
Q3 12:08
3RD & 2
OWN 20
+7
44.2%
Matt Corral pass complete to Chase Rogers for 7 yds to the Miss 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:54
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
43.0%
Matt Corral pass incomplete to Jonathan MingoSimilar
Q3 11:45
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+15
43.7%
Matt Corral pass complete to Dontario Drummond for 15 yds to the Miss 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:25
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+7
40.6%
Matt Corral run for 7 yds to the Miss 49Similar
Q3 10:57
2ND & 3
OWN 49
+4
39.8%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Henry Parrish Jr. for 4 yds to the Ind 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:32
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
39.4%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 3 yds to the Ind 44Similar
Q3 10:02
2ND & 7
OPP 44
0
39.2%
Matt Corral pass incomplete to Jonathan MingoSimilar
Q3 9:55
3RD & 7
OPP 44
+7
39.5%
Matt Corral run for 7 yds to the Ind 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:30
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+33
38.7%
Snoop Conner run for 33 yds to the Ind 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
23.1%
Snoop Conner run for 4 yds for a TD (Luke Logan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 14FUMBLE
6 plays · 26 yds · 1:3528% → 28%
Q3 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
27.6%
Jack Tuttle pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:06
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+9
27.2%
Jack Tuttle pass complete to Whop Philyor for 9 yds to the Ind 34Similar
Q3 8:42
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+3
28.1%
Stevie Scott III run for 3 yds to the Ind 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:08
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
26.9%
Tim Baldwin Jr. run for 5 yds to the Ind 42Similar
Q3 7:40
2ND & 5
OWN 42
+9
27.7%
Jack Tuttle pass complete to Whop Philyor for 9 yds Whop Philyor fumbled, forced by Tylan Knight, recovered by Miss Jalen JordanSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:4278% → 79%
Q3 7:23
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+1
21.6%
Matt Corral pass complete to Chase Rogers for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 7:04
2ND & 9
50
+3
20.3%
Matt Corral run for 3 yds to the Ind 47Similar
Q3 6:50
3RD & 6
OPP 47
0
20.3%
Matt Corral pass incomplete to Chase RogersSimilar
Q3 6:41
4TH & 6
OPP 47
0
21.1%
Mac Brown punt for 47 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 16TD
15 plays · 80 yds · 6:3425% → 44%
Q3 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
25.0%
Stevie Scott III run for 4 yds to the Ind 24Similar
Q3 5:50
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+4
24.6%
Stevie Scott III run for 4 yds to the Ind 28Similar
Q3 5:31
3RD & 2
OWN 28
+1
24.4%
Sampson James run for 1 yd to the Ind 29Similar
Q3 5:17
4TH & 1
OWN 29
+3
23.9%
Jack Tuttle run for 3 yds to the Ind 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:36
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+9
22.9%
Jack Tuttle pass complete to Whop Philyor for 9 yds to the Ind 41Similar
Q3 4:10
2ND & 1
OWN 41
+4
24.3%
Stevie Scott III run for 4 yds to the Ind 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+10
24.1%
Jack Tuttle pass complete to Whop Philyor for 10 yds to the Miss 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:01
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+7
24.0%
Jack Tuttle run for 7 yds to the Miss 38Similar
Q3 2:15
2ND & 3
OPP 38
-3
23.4%
Sampson James run for a loss of 3 yards to the Miss 41Similar
Q3 1:47
3RD & 6
OPP 41
+5
21.4%
Jack Tuttle pass complete to Whop Philyor for 5 yds to the Miss 36Similar
Q3 1:08
4TH & 1
OPP 36
+3
21.1%
Stevie Scott III run for 3 yds to the Miss 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:35
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
21.9%
Jack Tuttle pass incomplete to Miles MarshallSimilar
Q3 0:29
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+21
21.6%
Stevie Scott III run for 21 yds to the Miss 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+9
21.8%
Jack Tuttle run for 9 yds to the Miss 3Similar
Q4 14:56
2ND & 1
OPP 3
+3
43.7%
Stevie Scott III run for 3 yds for a TD (Charles Campbell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 17MISSED FG
10 plays · 55 yds · 3:1267% → 72%
Q4 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
33.0%
Kentrel Bullock run for 7 yds to the Miss 32Similar
Q4 14:17
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+4
29.6%
Kentrel Bullock run for 4 yds to the Miss 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
29.0%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 2 yds to the Miss 38Similar
Q4 13:45
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+26
27.8%
Matt Corral pass complete to Dontario Drummond for 26 yds to the Ind 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:32
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+12
26.4%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 12 yds to the Ind 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:06
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+4
25.3%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 4 yds to the Ind 20Similar
Q4 12:42
2ND & 6
OPP 20
-1
25.0%
Snoop Conner run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ind 21Similar
Q4 12:13
3RD & 7
OPP 21
+1
25.6%
Snoop Conner run for 1 yd to the Ind 20Similar
Q4 11:38
4TH & 6
OPP 20
+37
28.3%
Luke Logan 37 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 18TD
16 plays · 80 yds · 5:3233% → 65%
Q4 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
32.8%
Jack Tuttle pass complete to Whop Philyor for 4 yds to the Ind 24Similar
Q4 10:57
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+14
33.3%
Jack Tuttle pass complete to Stevie Scott III for 14 yds to the Ind 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
32.0%
Stevie Scott III run for 2 yds to the Ind 40Similar
Q4 9:52
2ND & 8
OWN 40
0
33.3%
Jack Tuttle pass incomplete to Stevie Scott IIISimilar
Q4 9:44
3RD & 8
OWN 40
+20
30.6%
Jack Tuttle pass complete to Miles Marshall for 20 yds to the Miss 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:17
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+15
35.7%
Tuttle, Jack pass incomplete to Fryfogle, Ty, PENALTY OLEMISS pass interference (Battle, Miles) 15 yards to the OLEMISS25, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN INDIANA.Similar
Q4 9:06
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+9
38.4%
Tim Baldwin Jr. run for 9 yds to the Miss 16Similar
Q4 8:51
2ND & 1
OPP 16
0
37.5%
Jack Tuttle pass incomplete to Ty FryfogleSimilar
Q4 8:39
3RD & 1
OPP 16
-1
35.0%
Stevie Scott III run for a loss of 1 yard to the Miss 17Similar
Q4 8:00
4TH & 2
OPP 17
+6
29.1%
Jack Tuttle pass complete to Whop Philyor for 6 yds to the Miss 11 for a 1ST down OLE MISS Penalty, Substitution Infraction ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:32
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+4
33.7%
Stevie Scott III run for 4 yds to the Miss 7Similar
Q4 7:09
2ND & 6
OPP 7
-5
33.0%
INDIANA Penalty, False Start (Matthew Bedford) to the Miss 12Similar
Q4 6:46
2ND & 11
OPP 12
+7
31.1%
Stevie Scott III run for 7 yds to the Miss 5Similar
Q4 6:02
3RD & 4
OPP 5
+3
28.5%
Tuttle, Jack pass incomplete to Scott III, Stevie, PENALTY OLEMISS holding (Sanogo, MoMo) 3 yards to the OLEMISS2, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN INDIANA.Similar
Q4 5:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
65.4%
Stevie Scott III run for 2 yds for a TD (Charles Campbell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 19TD
7 plays · 63 yds · 1:3151% → 86%
Q4 5:43
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
48.8%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 3 yds to the Miss 40Similar
Q4 5:15
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+3
46.8%
Matt Corral pass complete to John Rhys Plumlee for 3 yds to the Miss 43Similar
Q4 5:05
3RD & 4
OWN 43
+8
46.4%
Matt Corral pass complete to John Rhys Plumlee for 8 yds to the INDIANA 49 for a 1ST down INDIANA Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:48
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+44
44.5%
Matt Corral pass complete to John Rhys Plumlee for 44 yds to the Ind 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
41.5%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 2 yds to the Ind 3Similar
Q4 4:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
13.7%
Matt Corral pass complete to Dontario Drummond for 3 yds for a TD (Luke Logan PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 20DOWNS
12 plays · 34 yds · 3:0624% → 15%
Q4 4:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
23.7%
Stevie Scott III run for 8 yds to the Ind 33Similar
Q4 3:49
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+3
26.3%
Stevie Scott III run for 3 yds to the Ind 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:22
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
24.8%
Jack Tuttle pass complete to Whop Philyor for 1 yd to the Ind 37Similar
Q4 2:55
2ND & 9
OWN 37
+19
24.1%
Jack Tuttle pass complete to David Ellis for 19 yds to the Miss 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:50
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+6
29.6%
David Ellis run for 6 yds to the Miss 38Similar
Q4 1:55
2ND & 4
OPP 38
+3
27.1%
David Ellis run for 3 yds to the Miss 35Similar
Q4 1:43
3RD & 1
OPP 35
+2
26.8%
Jack Tuttle run for 2 yds to the Miss 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:18
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-2
25.5%
Jack Tuttle pass complete to Whop Philyor for a loss of 2 yards to the Miss 35Similar
Q4 1:10
2ND & 12
OPP 35
-6
22.4%
Jack Tuttle sacked by Cedric Johnson for a loss of 6 yards to the Miss 41Similar
Q4 1:02
3RD & 18
OPP 41
0
16.8%
Jack Tuttle pass incomplete to Whop PhilyorSimilar
Q4 0:55
4TH & 18
OPP 41
0
14.8%
Jack Tuttle pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 21Uncategorized
3 plays · 4 yds · 0:5594% → 95%
Q4 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+15
5.6%
INDIANA Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (15 Yards) to the Ind 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:24
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-5
5.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the Ind 49Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 15
OPP 49
-6
4.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 6 yards to the Miss 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 5:58
Stevie Scott III run for 2 yds for a TD (Charles Campbell KICK)
+36.9
TD · Q4 4:12
Matt Corral pass complete to Dontario Drummond for 3 yds for a TD (Luke Logan PAT MISSED)
-27.9
TD · Q4 14:56
Stevie Scott III run for 3 yds for a TD (Charles Campbell KICK)
+22
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com