2020 · Week 16 · Dec 19, 2020 · Bank of America Stadium
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Win probability · ND
modelND aheadCLEM aheadconfidence bandkey playND scoreCLEM score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 7:05 · Jay Bramblett punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Amari Rodgers at the Clem 27
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 0:41: Amari Rodgers 67 Yd pass from Trevor Lawrence (B.T. Potter Kick) — CLEM win probability +2.8 pts (now 76%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
- TD · Q2 9:24: E.J. Williams 33 Yd pass from Trevor Lawrence (B.T. Potter Kick) — CLEM win probability +5.7 pts (now 81%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
- FG · Q2 4:28: B.T. Potter 27 Yd Field Goal — CLEM win probability +2.6 pts (now 83%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:21: Travis Etienne 44 Yd Run (B.T. Potter Kick) — CLEM win probability +5.1 pts (now 91%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
- TD · Q4 8:09: Chris Tyree 21 Yd Run (Jonathan Doerer Kick) — ND win probability +1.8 pts (now 2%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
ND made the numbers' call on 8 of 9CLEM made the numbers' call on 4 of 6
- Q1 8:16ND 4th & 13 at CLEM 33, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 27.8% before the snapGo for it27.7%−0.221% to convertField goalTheir call27.8%49% to makePunt27.7%−0.1average punt
- Q1 1:42ND 4th & 6 at CLEM 6, up 3Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 32.7% before the snapGo for it32.3%−0.131% to convertField goalTheir call32.4%91% to makePunt29.9%−2.5average punt
- Q2 12:08ND 4th & 3 at CLEM 28, down 4Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 31.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call31.7%52% to convertField goal31.1%−0.560% to makePunt28.3%−3.4average punt
- Q2 7:05ND 4th & 13 at ND 22, down 11Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.2% before the snapGo for it21.3%−1.219% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call22.5%average punt
- Q2 4:28CLEM 4th & 8 at ND 10, up 11Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 76.4% before the snapGo for it75.8%−0.328% to convertField goalTheir call76.1%88% to makePunt72.9%−3.2average punt
- Q2 2:10ND 4th & 5 at ND 41, down 14Close callPunted · 19.5% before the snapGo for it19.2%41% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call19.1%−0.1average punt
- Q2 0:21CLEM 4th & 1 at ND 44, up 14Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 82.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call82.8%70% to convertField goal82.7%−0.127% to makePunt82.3%−0.5average punt
- Q3 13:32CLEM 4th & 5 at CLEM 45, up 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.3% before the snapGo for it91.3%−0.241% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call91.5%average punt
- Q3 11:43ND 4th & 21 at ND 7, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.1% before the snapGo for it8.8%−1.87% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call10.6%average punt
- Q3 9:19CLEM 4th & 3 at ND 48, up 21Close callPunted · 93.9% before the snapGo for it94.4%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call94.0%−0.4average punt
- Q3 6:18ND 4th & 9 at ND 24, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.5% before the snapGo for it5.2%−1.130% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call6.3%average punt
- Q3 1:53ND 4th & 16 at midfield, down 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.1% before the snapGo for it1.0%−0.116% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.2%average punt
- Q4 10:31CLEM 4th & 7 at ND 20, up 28Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.5% before the snapGo for it99.4%−<0.135% to convertField goalTheir call99.4%75% to makePunt99.0%−0.4average punt
- Q4 4:18CLEM 4th & 8 at ND 46, up 24Close callPunted · 99.1% before the snapGo for it99.1%34% to convertField goal99.0%−0.123% to makePuntTheir call99.1%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 0:21ND 4th & 26 at ND 35, down 24Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.7% before the snapGo for it0.5%−<0.17% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.5%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ND made the numbers' call on 1 of 1CLEM made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
- Q1 0:41CLEM Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call70.4%97% to makeGo for two70.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 9:24CLEM Touchdown, up 10 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call75.8%97% to makeGo for two75.7%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:21CLEM Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call87.6%97% to makeGo for two87.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 3:43CLEM Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.9%97% to makeGo for two98.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 8:09ND Touchdown, down 25 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call0.9%97% to makeGo for two0.8%−0.245% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartNDDrive 1FG12 plays · 46 yds · 6:2919% → 23%
Q1 13:29
3RD & 5
OWN 26
+12
19.8%
Ian Book pass complete to Michael Mayer for 12 yds to the NDame 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+16
20.2%
Ian Book pass complete to Avery Davis for 16 yds to the Clem 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:36
2ND & 15
OWN 49
+6
20.8%
Ian Book pass complete to Javon McKinley for 6 yds to the Clem 45Similar
Q1 10:58
3RD & 9
OPP 45
+15
21.3%
Ian Book pass complete to Michael Mayer for 15 yds to the Clem 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:59
3RD & 8
OPP 28
-5
22.5%
Ian Book sacked by James Skalski for a loss of 5 yards to the Clem 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 2INT8 plays · 46 yds · 2:4577% → 76%
Q1 8:05
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
23.2%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Amari Rodgers for 3 yds to the Clem 23Similar
Q1 7:40
2ND & 7
OWN 23
-2
23.5%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Travis Etienne for a loss of 2 yards to the Clem 21Similar
Q1 6:57
3RD & 9
OWN 21
+15
24.2%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to E.J. Williams for 15 yds to the Clem 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:30
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+25
23.8%
Trevor Lawrence run for 10 yds to the NDame 46 for a 1ST down NOTRE DAME Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Kyle Hamilton) to the NDame 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:02
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+5
23.8%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Travis Etienne for 5 yds to the NDame 34Similar
Q1 5:20
2ND & 5
OPP 34
-14
23.9%
Trevor Lawrence pass intercepted Kyle Hamilton return for 14 yds to the NDame 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 3MISSED FG7 plays · 56 yds · 3:3125% → 27%
Q1 5:13
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+26
25.1%
Ian Book pass complete to Ben Skowronek for 26 yds to the Clem 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 4TD3 plays · 80 yds · 0:5473% → 76%
NDDrive 5DOWNS7 plays · 55 yds · 3:2025% → 27%
Q2 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+30
25.0%
Ian Book pass complete to Tommy Tremble for 30 yds to the Clem 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 6TD6 plays · 72 yds · 2:3874% → 81%
Q2 12:02
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+21
25.6%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Cornell Powell for 21 yds to the Clem 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 7PUNT5 plays · -3 yds · 2:1021% → 19%
Q2 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
20.6%
Ian Book pass complete to Michael Mayer for 9 yds to the NDame 34Similar
Q2 8:35
2ND & 1
OWN 34
-10
21.2%
Ian Book sacked by K.J. Henry for a loss of 10 yards to the NDame 24Similar
Q2 7:48
3RD & 11
OWN 24
-2
19.0%
Ian Book sacked by Derion Kendrick for a loss of 2 yards to the NDame 22Similar
Q2 7:05
4TH & 13
OWN 22
0
18.8%
Jay Bramblett punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Amari Rodgers at the Clem 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 8FG8 plays · 63 yds · 2:3180% → 83%
Q2 6:59
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+15
19.9%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Amari Rodgers for 15 yds to the Clem 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:07
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+24
19.3%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Amari Rodgers for 24 yds to the NDame 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:31
3RD & 8
OPP 10
0
19.3%
Trevor Lawrence pass incomplete to E.J. Williams, broken up by Clarence LewisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 9PUNT6 plays · 16 yds · 2:0817% → 17%
Q2 4:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
16.8%
Ian Book pass complete to Tommy Tremble for 11 yds to the NDame 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:35
3RD & 11
OWN 35
+6
16.2%
Ian Book pass complete to Kyren Williams for 6 yds to the NDame 41Similar
Q2 2:10
4TH & 5
OWN 41
0
16.8%
Jay Bramblett punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Amari Rodgers at the Clem 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 10TD13 plays · 88 yds · 1:4984% → 91%
Q2 0:59
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
15.3%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Cornell Powell for 5 yds to the Clem 35Similar
Q2 0:51
2ND & 5
OWN 35
+4
15.3%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Braden Galloway for 4 yds to the Clem 39Similar
Q2 0:31
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+9
14.9%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Travis Etienne for 9 yds to the NDame 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 11END OF HALF2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0011% → 11%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 12PUNT5 plays · 5 yds · 1:1392% → 92%
Q3 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+9
7.7%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Amari Rodgers for 9 yds to the Clem 49Similar
Q3 13:37
3RD & 5
OWN 45
0
7.9%
Trevor Lawrence pass incomplete to Amari Rodgers, broken up by Shaun CrawfordSimilar
Q3 13:32
4TH & 5
OWN 45
0
8.2%
Will Spiers punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Matt Salerno at the NDame 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 13PUNT4 plays · -11 yds · 1:4310% → 9%
CLEMDrive 14PUNT5 plays · 7 yds · 2:1994% → 94%
Q3 11:38
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-7
6.0%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Amari Rodgers for 3 yds to the Clem 48 CLEMSON Penalty, Offensive Holding (Brannon Spector) to the Clem 38Similar
Q3 11:18
1ST & 17
OWN 38
-1
6.0%
Trevor Lawrence sacked by Adetokunbo Ogundeji for a loss of 1 yard to the Clem 37Similar
Q3 9:57
3RD & 11
OWN 44
+8
5.7%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Chez Mellusi for 8 yds to the NDame 48Similar
Q3 9:19
4TH & 3
OPP 48
0
5.7%
Will Spiers punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Matt Salerno at the NDame 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 15PUNT7 plays · 12 yds · 2:568% → 5%
Q3 8:40
2ND & 4
OWN 18
+5
6.9%
Ian Book pass complete to Michael Mayer for 5 yds Michael Mayer fumbled, forced by Lannden Zanders, recovered by NDame Michael Mayer for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:04
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
6.8%
Ian Book pass complete to Ben Skowronek for no gain to the NDame 23Similar
Q3 6:43
3RD & 7
OWN 26
-2
6.4%
Ian Book sacked by Malcolm Greene for a loss of 2 yards to the NDame 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 16TD8 plays · 83 yds · 2:3397% → 99%
Q3 6:16
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
2.7%
Trevor Lawrence pass incomplete to E.J. Williams, broken up by Justin AdemilolaSimilar
Q3 5:35
3RD & 9
OWN 18
+22
2.7%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to E.J. Williams for 22 yds to the Clem 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:05
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
2.4%
Trevor Lawrence pass incomplete to Cornell Powell, broken up by Kyle HamiltonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 17PUNT7 plays · 25 yds · 1:442% → 1%
Q3 3:37
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+31
1.7%
Ian Book pass complete to Ben Skowronek for 16 yds to the Clem 41 for a 1ST down CLEMSON Penalty, Personal Foul (Mario Goodrich) to the Clem 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:09
4TH & 6
OPP 40
-10
1.4%
Book, Ian pass complete to Tremble, Tommy for 13 yards to the CLEMSON27, PENALTY NOTREDAME holding (Williams, Kyren) 10 yards to the 50 yardline, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 1:53
4TH & 16
50
+2
1.4%
Jay Bramblett punt for 38 yds , Amari Rodgers returns for 2 yds to the Clem 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 18FG12 plays · 66 yds · 6:1699% → 100%
Q3 1:47
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+3
1.2%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Amari Rodgers for 3 yds to the Clem 17Similar
Q3 1:08
2ND & 7
OWN 17
+7
1.1%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Cornell Powell for 7 yds to the Clem 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 4
OWN 30
+10
0.5%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to E.J. Williams for 10 yds to the Clem 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:14
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+10
0.5%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Braden Galloway for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:58
2ND & 1
OPP 41
-5
0.4%
Trevor Lawrence sacked by Drew White for a loss of 5 yards to the NDame 46Similar
Q4 12:27
3RD & 6
OPP 46
+23
0.4%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Chez Mellusi for 23 yds to the NDame 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:12
3RD & 8
OPP 21
+1
0.3%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Braden Galloway for 1 yd to the NDame 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 19TD10 plays · 75 yds · 2:140% → 2%
Q4 10:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
0.3%
Ian Book pass complete to Kyren Williams for 6 yds to the NDame 31Similar
Q4 9:50
2ND & 4
OWN 31
-1
0.2%
Kyren Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the NDame 30 Kyren Williams fumbled, recovered by NDame Kyren WilliamsSimilar
Q4 9:23
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+15
0.2%
Book, Ian pass incomplete to Skowronek, Ben, PENALTY CLEMSON pass interference (Booth Jr., Andrew) 15 yards to the NOTREDAME45, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN NOTREDAME.Similar
Q4 9:18
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
0.2%
Ian Book pass incomplete to Javon McKinley, broken up by Fred Davis IISimilar
Q4 9:07
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+12
0.2%
Ian Book pass complete to Ben Skowronek for 12 yds to the Clem 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:41
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+15
0.2%
Book, Ian pass incomplete to Mayer, Michael, PENALTY CLEMSON personal foul (Turner, Nolan) 15 yards to the CLEMSON28, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN NOTREDAME. Nolan Turner ejected for targeting.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 20PUNT9 plays · 29 yds · 3:4499% → 100%
Q4 8:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
0.8%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Amari Rodgers for a loss of 3 yards to the Clem 22Similar
Q4 7:15
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+4
0.8%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to J.C. Chalk for 4 yds to the Clem 26Similar
Q4 6:30
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+26
0.6%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Cornell Powell for 26 yds to the NDame 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:18
4TH & 8
OPP 46
0
0.5%
Will Spiers punt for 39 yds , Matt Salerno returns for no gain to the NDame 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 21PUNT12 plays · 28 yds · 3:511% → 1%
Q4 3:42
2ND & 9
OWN 8
+12
0.9%
Ian Book pass complete to Javon McKinley for 12 yds to the NDame 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:18
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+19
0.9%
Ian Book pass complete to Javon McKinley for 19 yds to the NDame 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:44
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+2
0.9%
Ian Book pass complete to Kyren Williams for 2 yds to the NDame 41Similar
Q4 2:18
3RD & 8
OWN 41
+10
0.9%
Ian Book pass complete to Michael Mayer for 10 yds to the Clem 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:58
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-6
0.8%
Ian Book run for a loss of 6 yards to the NDame 45 Ian Book fumbled, recovered by NDame Ian BookSimilar
Q4 1:21
2ND & 16
OWN 45
0
0.7%
Ian Book pass incomplete to Javon McKinley, broken up by Fred Davis IISimilar
Q4 1:11
3RD & 16
OWN 45
-10
0.7%
Ian Book sacked by Trenton Simpson for a loss of 10 yards to the NDame 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 22END OF 4TH QUARTER1 play · 2 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 9:24
E.J. Williams 33 Yd pass from Trevor Lawrence (B.T. Potter Kick)
-5.7
TD · Q2 0:21
Travis Etienne 44 Yd Run (B.T. Potter Kick)
-5.1
TD · Q1 0:41
Amari Rodgers 67 Yd pass from Trevor Lawrence (B.T. Potter Kick)
-2.8