Try the model
OKST

Oklahoma State 42 at Baylor 3

BAY
2020 · Week 15 · Dec 12, 2020 · McLane Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · BAY
modelBAY aheadOKST aheadconfidence bandkey playBAY scoreOKST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 9:48 · Issac Power punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Brennan Presley at the OKSt 28
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+59.0+29.50−29.5−59.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 107Home team on offense−38.3Score differential−18.8Pregame prior−7.1Garbage-time factor−8.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 3:21: Dillon Stoner 15 Yd pass from Spencer Sanders (Brady Pohl Kick) — OKST win probability +3.8 pts (now 71%) (top driver: OKST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 14:21: Dillon Stoner 40 Yd pass from Spencer Sanders (Brady Pohl Kick) — OKST win probability +7.6 pts (now 80%) (top driver: OKST has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 11:30: Dominic Richardson 17 Yd Run (Brady Pohl Kick) — BAY win probability +0.1 pts (now 18%) (top driver: OKST has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q2 1:11: Charlie Brewer pass complete to Qualan Jones for 5 yds to the Bayl 20 — OKST win probability +6.5 pts (now 95%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 2:38: Dominic Richardson 2 Yd Run (Brady Pohl Kick) — OKST win probability +1.2 pts (now 99%) (top driver: OKST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BAY made the numbers' call on 12 of 12OKST made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 12:55BAY 4th & 18 at BAY 44, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.8%−0.2
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:19BAY 4th & 7 at OKST 49, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.1%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.2%
    average punt
  3. Q1 1:41BAY 4th & 13 at BAY 34, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.3%−1.1
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.4%
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:51BAY 4th & 19 at BAY 15, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.5%−1.6
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.1%
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:15BAY 4th & 6 at BAY 40, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.3%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.3%
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:57OKST 4th & 4 at OKST 33, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.5%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.5%
    average punt
  7. Q2 6:15BAY 4th & 17 at BAY 38, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.2%−0.2
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.4%
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:17OKST 4th & 21 at BAY 48, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.5%−0.1
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.6%
    average punt
  9. Q3 13:29BAY 4th & 7 at BAY 15, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.4%−0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.5%
    average punt
  10. Q3 11:30OKST 4th & 3 at BAY 28, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 96.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    96.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    96.1%−0.1
    60% to make
    Punt
    95.7%−0.4
    average punt
  11. Q3 9:48BAY 4th & 7 at BAY 29, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.1%−<0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.1%
    average punt
  12. Q3 5:51BAY 4th & 8 at BAY 33, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.4%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.5%
    average punt
  13. Q3 1:03BAY 4th & 13 at BAY 25, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.4%−0.2
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.6%
    average punt
  14. Q4 12:20OKST 4th & 4 at BAY 39, up 35
    Close callPunted · 99.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    99.3%−0.1
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    99.3%−0.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 7:55BAY 4th & 9 at OKST 23, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−<0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    0.2%
    70% to make
    Punt
    0.0%−0.2
    average punt
  16. Q4 2:17BAY 4th & 11 at BAY 37, down 39
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−<0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
OKST made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 14:42OKST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 3:21OKST Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 14:21OKST Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 11:30OKST Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 2:38OKST Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 4:49OKST Touchdown, up 38 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
OKSTDrive 1TD
3 plays · 75 yds · 0:1367% → 67%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
33.3%
Spencer Sanders pass incomplete to Landon WolfSimilar
Q1 14:42
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+75
33.3%
Dillon Stoner 75 Yd pass from Spencer Sanders (Brady Pohl Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · -8 yds · 1:3033% → 33%
Q1 14:25
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-7
33.4%
Charlie Brewer sacked by Trace Ford for a loss of 7 yards to the Bayl 45 Charlie Brewer fumbled, forced by Trace Ford, recovered by Bayl Blake Bedier , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q1 13:53
2ND & 17
OWN 45
0
33.4%
Charlie Brewer pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:44
3RD & 17
OWN 45
-1
33.4%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Trestan Ebner for a loss of 1 yard to the Bayl 44Similar
Q1 12:55
4TH & 18
OWN 44
+33
33.3%
Issac Power punt for 33 yds , Brennan Presley returns for a loss of 1 yard to the OKSt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 3INT
7 plays · 24 yds · 2:1567% → 67%
Q1 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+1
33.5%
Dezmon Jackson run for 1 yd to the OKSt 23Similar
Q1 12:14
2ND & 9
OWN 23
+8
33.5%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Tay Martin for 8 yds to the OKSt 31Similar
Q1 11:37
3RD & 1
OWN 31
+2
33.4%
Spencer Sanders run for 2 yds to the OKSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:23
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-5
33.4%
OKLAHOMA ST Penalty, False Start (Preston Wilson) to the OKSt 28Similar
Q1 11:04
1ST & 15
OWN 28
0
33.5%
Spencer Sanders pass incomplete to Jelani WoodsSimilar
Q1 10:58
2ND & 15
OWN 28
+18
33.6%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Tay Martin for 18 yds to the OKSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:35
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
33.2%
Spencer Sanders pass intercepted Christian Morgan return for no gain to the Bayl 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 14 yds · 2:1034% → 34%
Q1 10:29
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
33.7%
Trestan Ebner run for 3 yds to the Bayl 40Similar
Q1 10:08
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+8
34.0%
Trestan Ebner run for 8 yds to the Bayl 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:57
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-4
34.1%
Trestan Ebner run for a loss of 4 yards to the Bayl 44Similar
Q1 9:26
2ND & 14
OWN 44
+6
33.8%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Tyler Henderson for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 8:46
3RD & 8
50
+1
33.9%
Charlie Brewer run for 1 yd to the OKSt 49Similar
Q1 8:19
4TH & 7
OPP 49
+3
33.7%
Issac Power punt for 44 yds , Brennan Presley returns for 3 yds to the OKSt 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 5TD
12 plays · 92 yds · 4:5266% → 71%
Q1 8:13
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+2
33.7%
Dezmon Jackson run for 2 yds to the OKSt 10Similar
Q1 7:38
2ND & 8
OWN 10
+4
33.5%
Dezmon Jackson run for 4 yds to the OKSt 14Similar
Q1 6:59
3RD & 4
OWN 14
+8
33.7%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Braydon Johnson for 8 yds to the OKSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:37
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+35
33.6%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Dillon Stoner for 35 yds to the Bayl 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:25
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
32.8%
Dezmon Jackson run for no gain to the Bayl 43Similar
Q1 5:55
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+5
32.8%
Dezmon Jackson run for 5 yds to the Bayl 38Similar
Q1 5:23
3RD & 5
OPP 38
+8
32.9%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Dillon Stoner for 8 yds to the Bayl 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:02
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+5
32.6%
Jackson, Dezmon rush for 7 yards to the BAYLOR23, PENALTY BAYLOR offside 5 yards to the BAYLOR25, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:37
1ST & 5
OPP 25
+3
32.6%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Braydon Johnson for 3 yds to the Bayl 22Similar
Q1 4:04
2ND & 2
OPP 22
+5
32.5%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Landon Wolf for 5 yds to the Bayl 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:35
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+2
32.4%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Tay Martin for 2 yds to the Bayl 15Similar
Q1 3:21
2ND & 8
OPP 15
+15
28.6%
Dillon Stoner 15 Yd pass from Spencer Sanders (Brady Pohl Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 1:3530% → 29%
Q1 3:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
29.5%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Gavin Holmes for 12 yds to the Bayl 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:59
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
29.7%
Trestan Ebner run for no gain to the Bayl 37Similar
Q1 2:32
2ND & 10
OWN 37
-3
29.6%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Gavin Holmes for a loss of 3 yards to the Bayl 34Similar
Q1 1:55
3RD & 13
OWN 34
0
29.1%
Charlie Brewer pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:41
4TH & 13
OWN 34
+15
29.0%
Issac Power punt for 48 yds , Brennan Presley returns for 15 yds to the OKSt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 7TD
6 plays · 67 yds · 2:1272% → 80%
Q1 1:33
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+6
28.4%
Spencer Sanders run for 6 yds to the OKSt 39Similar
Q1 1:08
2ND & 4
OWN 39
+7
27.8%
Dominic Richardson run for 7 yds to the OKSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:37
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
27.6%
Spencer Sanders pass incomplete to Dillon StonerSimilar
Q1 0:31
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+9
27.6%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Landon Wolf for 9 yds to the Bayl 45Similar
Q2 14:55
3RD & 1
OPP 45
+5
27.3%
Dominic Richardson run for 5 yds to the Bayl 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:21
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+40
19.7%
Dillon Stoner 40 Yd pass from Spencer Sanders (Brady Pohl Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · -9 yds · 1:1821% → 20%
Q2 14:09
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-3
21.3%
Gavin Holmes run for a loss of 3 yards to the Bayl 21Similar
Q2 13:34
2ND & 13
OWN 21
-6
20.8%
Qualan Jones run for a loss of 6 yards to the Bayl 15Similar
Q2 12:59
3RD & 19
OWN 15
0
20.4%
Charlie Brewer pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:51
4TH & 19
OWN 15
0
20.3%
Issac Power punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Brennan Presley at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 9TD
4 plays · 50 yds · 1:1381% → 82%
Q2 12:43
1ST & 10
50
0
18.6%
Spencer Sanders pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:37
2ND & 10
50
+13
18.6%
Dezmon Jackson run for 13 yds to the Bayl 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:01
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+20
18.0%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Landon Wolf for 20 yds to the Bayl 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:30
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+17
18.2%
Dominic Richardson 17 Yd Run (Brady Pohl Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 10PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 2:0818% → 16%
Q2 11:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
17.5%
Trestan Ebner run for 9 yds to the Bayl 34Similar
Q2 10:59
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+2
17.2%
Trestan Ebner run for 2 yds to the Bayl 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:33
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
17.2%
Trestan Ebner run for 7 yds to the Bayl 43Similar
Q2 10:00
2ND & 3
OWN 43
-3
16.6%
Trestan Ebner run for a loss of 3 yards to the Bayl 40Similar
Q2 9:24
3RD & 6
OWN 40
0
16.0%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to Trestan EbnerSimilar
Q2 9:15
4TH & 6
OWN 40
0
15.5%
Issac Power punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Brennan Presley at the OKSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:1482% → 82%
Q2 9:11
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
17.6%
Spencer Sanders pass incomplete to Dillon StonerSimilar
Q2 9:02
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+1
17.5%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Spencer Sanders for 1 yd to the OKSt 28Similar
Q2 8:35
3RD & 9
OWN 28
+5
17.9%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Dezmon Jackson for 5 yds to the OKSt 33Similar
Q2 7:57
4TH & 4
OWN 33
+43
18.3%
Jake McClure punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Trestan Ebner at the BAYLOR 34 BAYLOR Penalty, Offensive Holding (10 Yards) to the Bayl 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 14 yds · 1:3315% → 15%
Q2 7:48
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+21
15.3%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to R.J. Sneed for 21 yds to the Bayl 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:33
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
16.0%
Qualan Jones run for 2 yds to the Bayl 47Similar
Q2 7:08
2ND & 8
OWN 47
-9
15.8%
Charlie Brewer sacked by Brock Martin for a loss of 9 yards to the Bayl 38Similar
Q2 6:23
3RD & 17
OWN 38
0
15.1%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to Seth JonesSimilar
Q2 6:15
4TH & 17
OWN 38
0
15.0%
Issac Power punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Brennan Presley at the OKSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 13PUNT
13 plays · 23 yds · 4:5184% → 89%
Q2 6:08
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
16.2%
Spencer Sanders pass incomplete to Tay MartinSimilar
Q2 6:04
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+7
16.1%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Dillon Stoner for 7 yds to the OKSt 36Similar
Q2 5:45
3RD & 3
OWN 36
+4
14.8%
Spencer Sanders run for 4 yds to the OKSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:16
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+12
15.3%
Dominic Richardson run for 12 yds to the Bayl 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:47
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
15.0%
Dominic Richardson run for 3 yds to the Bayl 45Similar
Q2 4:04
2ND & 7
OPP 45
+3
14.5%
Dominic Richardson run for 3 yds to the Bayl 42Similar
Q2 3:34
3RD & 4
OPP 42
+5
14.9%
Spencer Sanders run for 5 yds to the Bayl 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:06
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-10
13.9%
Dominic Richardson run for no gain to the Bayl 37 OKLAHOMA ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Bayl 47Similar
Q2 2:41
1ST & 20
OPP 47
-9
14.0%
Spencer Sanders sacked by Jalen Pitre for a loss of 9 yards to the OKSt 44Similar
Q2 2:05
2ND & 29
OWN 44
+4
13.7%
Dominic Richardson run for 4 yds to the OKSt 48Similar
Q2 1:26
3RD & 25
OWN 48
+4
11.4%
Dominic Richardson run for 4 yds to the Bayl 48Similar
Q2 1:17
4TH & 21
OPP 48
0
11.4%
Jake McClure punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Trestan Ebner at the Bayl 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 14END OF HALF
10 plays · 22 yds · 1:105% → 5%
Q2 1:11
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+5
4.9%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Qualan Jones for 5 yds to the Bayl 20Similar
Q2 1:06
2ND & 5
OWN 20
0
4.5%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to Qualan JonesSimilar
Q2 0:57
3RD & 5
OWN 20
+6
4.4%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Qualan Jones for 6 yds to the Bayl 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
4.8%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to Gavin HolmesSimilar
Q2 0:32
2ND & 10
OWN 26
0
4.4%
Charlie Brewer pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:21
3RD & 10
OWN 26
+6
4.2%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Qualan Jones for 6 yds to the Bayl 32Similar
Q2 0:10
4TH & 4
OWN 32
+5
4.3%
Power, Issac punt 43 yards to the OKLAST25, out-of-bounds, PENALTY OKLAST running into kicker 5 yards to the BAYLOR37, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN BAYLOR.Similar
Q2 0:05
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
4.9%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to Qualan JonesSimilar
Q2 0:01
2ND & 10
OWN 37
0
4.5%
Charlie Brewer pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:206% → 7%
Q3 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 12
-1
6.2%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to R.J. Sneed for a loss of 1 yard to the Bayl 11Similar
Q3 14:16
2ND & 11
OWN 11
+4
7.2%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Gavin Holmes for 4 yds to the Bayl 15Similar
Q3 13:39
3RD & 7
OWN 15
0
6.9%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to Seth JonesSimilar
Q3 13:29
4TH & 7
OWN 15
0
6.9%
Issac Power punt for 20 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Bayl 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 16DOWNS
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:5494% → 95%
Q3 13:24
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-5
5.9%
Spencer Sanders sacked by TJ Franklin and Abram Smith for a loss of 5 yards to the Bayl 40Similar
Q3 12:45
2ND & 15
OPP 40
+7
5.8%
Dezmon Jackson run for 7 yds to the Bayl 33Similar
Q3 12:10
3RD & 8
OPP 33
+5
5.2%
Dezmon Jackson run for 5 yds to the Bayl 28Similar
Q3 11:30
4TH & 3
OPP 28
+2
5.1%
Spencer Sanders run for 2 yds to the Bayl 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:426% → 5%
Q3 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-5
6.1%
BAYLOR Penalty, False Start (Khalil Keith) to the Bayl 21Similar
Q3 11:22
1ST & 15
OWN 21
+7
5.9%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Qualan Jones for 7 yds to the Bayl 28Similar
Q3 10:53
2ND & 8
OWN 28
+4
5.7%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Qualan Jones for 4 yds to the Bayl 32Similar
Q3 10:17
3RD & 4
OWN 32
-3
5.4%
Charlie Brewer sacked by Kolby Harvell-Peel for a loss of 3 yards to the Bayl 29Similar
Q3 9:48
4TH & 7
OWN 29
0
5.1%
Issac Power punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Brennan Presley at the OKSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 18INT
6 plays · 51 yds · 1:4996% → 97%
Q3 9:43
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
4.5%
Dominic Richardson run for no gain to the OKSt 28Similar
Q3 9:05
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+53
3.8%
Dominic Richardson run for 53 yds to the Bayl 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:48
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-5
3.4%
OKLAHOMA ST Penalty, False Start (Josh Sills) to the Bayl 24Similar
Q3 8:27
1ST & 15
OPP 24
0
3.4%
Spencer Sanders pass incomplete to Dillon StonerSimilar
Q3 8:22
2ND & 15
OPP 24
+3
3.4%
Dominic Richardson run for 3 yds to the Bayl 21Similar
Q3 7:54
3RD & 12
OPP 21
0
3.4%
Spencer Sanders pass intercepted, touchback. Zeke Brown return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 19PUNT
7 plays · 13 yds · 1:575% → 4%
Q3 7:48
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
5.1%
Taye McWilliams run for 6 yds to the Bayl 26Similar
Q3 7:29
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+3
5.0%
Taye McWilliams run for 3 yds to the Bayl 29Similar
Q3 7:09
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+2
4.8%
Charlie Brewer run for 2 yds to the Bayl 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:43
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
4.9%
Charlie Brewer pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:38
2ND & 10
OWN 31
0
4.6%
Charlie Brewer pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:32
3RD & 10
OWN 31
+2
4.5%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Jaylen Ellis for 2 yds to the Bayl 33Similar
Q3 5:51
4TH & 8
OWN 33
0
4.4%
Issac Power punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Brennan Presley at the OKSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 20TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 3:0897% → 99%
Q3 5:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
2.6%
Dezmon Jackson run for 1 yd to the OKSt 26Similar
Q3 5:20
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+9
2.5%
Spencer Sanders run for 9 yds to the OKSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:48
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
2.5%
Dezmon Jackson run for no gain to the OKSt 35Similar
Q3 4:02
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+50
2.3%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Dillon Stoner for 50 yds to the Bayl 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:32
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
2.4%
Spencer Sanders pass incomplete to Dillon StonerSimilar
Q3 3:27
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+8
2.4%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Landon Wolf for 8 yds to the Bayl 7Similar
Q3 3:01
3RD & 2
OPP 7
+5
2.0%
Jelani Woods run for 5 yds to the Bayl 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
0.8%
Dominic Richardson 2 Yd Run (Brady Pohl Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 1:251% → 1%
Q3 2:28
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+4
0.8%
Qualan Jones run for 4 yds to the Bayl 32Similar
Q3 2:13
2ND & 6
OWN 32
-1
0.8%
Trestan Ebner run for a loss of 1 yard to the Bayl 31Similar
Q3 1:47
3RD & 7
OWN 31
-6
0.6%
Jacob Zeno sacked by Calvin Bundage for a loss of 6 yards to the Bayl 25Similar
Q3 1:03
4TH & 13
OWN 25
0
0.5%
Issac Power punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Brennan Presley at the OKSt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 22PUNT
8 plays · 27 yds · 3:3899% → 99%
Q3 0:58
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
0.8%
Dominic Richardson run for no gain to the OKSt 34Similar
Q3 0:36
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+3
0.8%
Dominic Richardson run for 3 yds to the OKSt 37Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 37
+5
0.7%
BAYLOR Penalty, Defensive Offside (William Bradley-King) to the OKSt 42Similar
Q4 14:53
3RD & 2
OWN 42
+13
0.7%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Landon Wolf for 13 yds to the Bayl 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:20
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
0.6%
Dominic Richardson run for no gain to the Bayl 45Similar
Q4 13:42
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+4
0.6%
Dominic Richardson run for 4 yds to the Bayl 41Similar
Q4 13:07
3RD & 6
OPP 41
+2
0.5%
Dominic Richardson run for 2 yds to the Bayl 39Similar
Q4 12:20
4TH & 4
OPP 39
0
0.6%
Jake McClure punt for 39 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 23FG
14 plays · 57 yds · 4:200% → 0%
Q4 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
0.4%
Qualan Jones run for 3 yds to the Bayl 23Similar
Q4 11:50
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+5
0.3%
Jacob Zeno run for 5 yds to the Bayl 28Similar
Q4 11:23
3RD & 2
OWN 28
+5
0.3%
Qualan Jones run for 5 yds to the Bayl 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:05
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
0.3%
Jacob Zeno pass complete to Qualan Jones for 2 yds to the Bayl 35Similar
Q4 10:46
2ND & 8
OWN 35
+1
0.3%
Jacob Zeno pass complete to Tyler Henderson for 1 yd to the Bayl 36Similar
Q4 10:12
3RD & 7
OWN 36
+8
0.3%
Jacob Zeno pass complete to R.J. Sneed for 8 yds to the Bayl 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:47
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
0.3%
Jacob Zeno pass incomplete to R.J. SneedSimilar
Q4 9:40
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+17
0.2%
Taye McWilliams run for 17 yds to the OKSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:25
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+6
0.3%
Taye McWilliams run for 6 yds to the OKSt 33Similar
Q4 9:00
2ND & 4
OPP 33
+9
0.3%
Jacob Zeno run for 9 yds to the OKSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:31
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
0.3%
Jacob Zeno pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:26
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+1
0.2%
Taye McWilliams run for 1 yd to the OKSt 23Similar
Q4 8:00
3RD & 9
OPP 23
0
0.2%
Jacob Zeno pass incomplete to Taye McWilliamsSimilar
Q4 7:55
4TH & 9
OPP 23
+40
0.2%
John Mayers 40 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 24TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:55100% → 100%
Q4 7:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+43
0.3%
Dominic Richardson run for 43 yds to the Bayl 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:37
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-5
0.2%
Dominic Richardson run for a loss of 5 yards to the Bayl 37 Dominic Richardson fumbled, recovered by OKSt Dominic RichardsonSimilar
Q4 6:52
2ND & 15
OPP 37
+11
0.2%
Spencer Sanders run for 11 yds to the Bayl 26Similar
Q4 6:32
3RD & 4
OPP 26
+8
0.2%
Dominic Richardson run for 8 yds to the Bayl 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:57
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+17
0.2%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Dillon Stoner for 17 yds to the Bayl 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
0.2%
Dominic Richardson run for no gain to the Bayl 1Similar
Q4 4:49
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
0.2%
Dominic Richardson 1 Yd Run (Brady Pohl Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 25PUNT
7 plays · 11 yds · 2:170% → 0%
Q4 4:34
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+8
0.1%
Jacob Zeno pass complete to Qualan Jones for 8 yds to the Bayl 34Similar
Q4 4:21
2ND & 2
OWN 34
+4
0.1%
Qualan Jones run for 4 yds to the Bayl 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:55
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-1
0.1%
Jacob Zeno pass complete to Qualan Jones for a loss of 1 yard to the Bayl 37Similar
Q4 3:23
2ND & 11
OWN 42
-10
0.1%
Jacob Zeno run for 5 yds to the Bayl 42 BAYLOR Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Jake Burton) to the Bayl 27Similar
Q4 3:01
3RD & 21
OWN 27
+10
0.1%
Qualan Jones run for 10 yds to the Bayl 37Similar
Q4 2:17
4TH & 11
OWN 37
0
0.1%
Issac Power punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Brennan Presley at the OKSt 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 26END OF 4TH QUARTER
4 plays · 24 yds · 2:01100% → 100%
Q4 2:10
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+14
0.1%
Micah Cooper run for 14 yds to the OKSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:32
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
0.1%
Micah Cooper run for 4 yds to the OKSt 39Similar
Q4 0:47
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+1
0.1%
Micah Cooper run for 1 yd to the OKSt 40Similar
Q4 0:09
3RD & 5
OWN 40
+5
0.1%
Micah Cooper run for 5 yds to the OKSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 14:21
Dillon Stoner 40 Yd pass from Spencer Sanders (Brady Pohl Kick)
-7.6
KEY PLAY · Q2 1:11
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Qualan Jones for 5 yds to the Bayl 20
-6.5
TD · Q1 3:21
Dillon Stoner 15 Yd pass from Spencer Sanders (Brady Pohl Kick)
-3.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com