2020 · Week 7 · Oct 17, 2020 · Allen E. Paulson Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Win probability · GASO
modelGASO aheadMASS aheadconfidence bandkey playGASO scoreMASS score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 10:56 · Anthony Beck II punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Samuel Emilus at the GASOUTHERN 5 MASSACHUSETTS Penalty, Illegal Block (2 Yards) to the UMass 3
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 8:14: Shai Werts pass complete to Beau Johnson for 8 yds for a TD (Alex Raynor KICK) — GASO win probability +0.3 pts (now 97%) (top driver: GASO has the ball).
- TD · Q2 9:12: Shai Werts pass complete to Beau Johnson for 10 yds for a TD (Alex Raynor KICK) — GASO win probability +1.7 pts (now 98%) (top driver: GASO has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q2 6:32: Shai Werts run for 8 yds to the GeoSo 48 — GASO win probability +0.4 pts (now 98%) (top driver: GASO has the ball).
- TD · Q2 1:39: Shai Werts run for 4 yds for a TD (Alex Raynor KICK) — GASO win probability +1.0 pts (now 100%) (top driver: GASO has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
GASO made the numbers' call on 2 of 4MASS made the numbers' call on 6 of 10
- Q1 10:11MASS 4th & 7 at MASS 31, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.8% before the snapGo for it3.8%−0.136% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call3.9%average punt
- Q1 5:23MASS 4th & 6 at MASS 26, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.9% before the snapGo for it3.9%−0.139% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call4.0%average punt
- Q2 13:25MASS 4th & 12 at MASS 15, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.4% before the snapGo for it4.2%−0.322% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call4.5%average punt
- Q2 6:40MASS 4th & 4 at MASS 25, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.6% before the snapGo for it2.5%−<0.147% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.5%average punt
- Q2 0:25MASS 4th & 9 at GASO 37, down 28Close callWent for it · 0.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.7%−0.232% to convertField goal1.0%40% to makePunt0.5%−0.5average punt
- Q3 13:08GASO 4th & 10 at MASS 10, up 28Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.5% before the snapGo for it99.4%−0.124% to convertField goalTheir call99.5%88% to makePunt99.0%−0.5average punt
- Q3 11:01MASS 4th & 4 at MASS 35, down 31Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.4% before the snapGo for it0.4%−<0.148% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.4%average punt
- Q3 9:04GASO 4th & 10 at GASO 48, up 31Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.7% before the snapGo for it99.7%−0.129% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.8%average punt
- Q3 7:35MASS 4th & 3 at MASS 20, down 31Close callPunted · 0.3% before the snapGo for it0.3%51% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.3%−<0.1average punt
- Q3 3:54MASS 4th & 2 at GASO 46, down 38Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.2%57% to convertField goal0.0%−0.223% to makePunt0.1%−0.1average punt
- Q4 10:56GASO 4th & 2 at GASO 49, up 38Close callPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.9%56% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.8%−0.1average punt
- Q4 4:52MASS 4th & 3 at MASS 40, down 38Close callPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.0%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.0%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 2:34GASO 4th & 2 at MASS 14, up 38Close callKicked a field goal · 100.0% before the snapGo for it99.9%56% to convertField goalTheir call99.9%−0.184% to makePunt99.5%−0.4average punt
- Q4 0:00MASS 4th & 3 at GASO 43, down 41Close callWent for it · 0.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.0%−<0.152% to convertField goal0.0%−<0.128% to makePunt0.0%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
GASO made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
- Q1 12:18GASO Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call96.4%97% to makeGo for two96.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 8:14GASO Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call96.3%97% to makeGo for two96.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 9:12GASO Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.9%97% to makeGo for two97.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 1:39GASO Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.7%97% to makeGo for two99.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 6:40GASO Touchdown, up 37 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartGASODrive 1TD6 plays · 75 yds · 2:3798% → 97%
MASSDrive 2PUNT5 plays · 3 yds · 1:493% → 3%
Q1 11:43
3RD & 9
OWN 29
+2
97.3%
Mike Fallon pass complete to Jermaine Johnson Jr. for 2 yds to the UMass 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 3TD7 plays · 39 yds · 1:4697% → 97%
Q1 9:54
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+7
97.2%
Shai Werts pass complete to Khaleb Hood for 7 yds to the UMass 12Similar
Q1 9:53
2ND & 3
OPP 12
+4
97.2%
Shai Werts pass complete to Darion Anderson for 4 yds to the UMass 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:14
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
97.3%
Shai Werts pass complete to Beau Johnson for 8 yds for a TD (Alex Raynor KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 4PUNT6 plays · 15 yds · 2:333% → 3%
GASODrive 5FUMBLE6 plays · 49 yds · 3:4797% → 97%
MASSDrive 6PUNT7 plays · 11 yds · 2:553% → 4%
Q1 0:41
2ND & 11
OWN 2
+14
96.7%
Ellis Merriweather run for a loss of 1 yard to the UMass 2 for a 1ST down GA SOUTHERN Penalty, Personal Foul (Todd Bradley) to the UMass 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-4
96.5%
Mike Fallon sacked by Raymond Johnson III and Jalen Jackson for a loss of 4 yards to the UMass 13Similar
Q2 13:25
4TH & 12
OWN 15
0
96.5%
George Georgopoulos punt for 35 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 7TD7 plays · 50 yds · 3:5997% → 98%
MASSDrive 8PUNT5 plays · 6 yds · 2:172% → 2%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 9TD10 plays · 60 yds · 4:5398% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 10DOWNS12 plays · 42 yds · 1:211% → 1%
MASSDrive 11INT2 plays · 0 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q3 14:33
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-33
99.2%
Mike Fallon pass intercepted Derrick Canteen return for 33 yds to the UMass 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 12FG6 plays · 10 yds · 0:52100% → 100%
Q3 14:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+13
99.6%
Shai Werts run for 6 yds to the UMass 14 for a 1ST down MASSACHUSETTS Penalty, Horse Collar Tackle (Mike Ruane) to the UMass 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:20
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
-5
99.6%
GA SOUTHERN Penalty, False Start (Aaron Dowdell) to the UMass 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 13PUNT5 plays · 6 yds · 1:570% → 0%
GASODrive 14PUNT7 plays · 21 yds · 1:43100% → 100%
Q3 10:47
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+10
99.7%
Shai Werts pass complete to Malik Murray for 10 yds to the GeoSo 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:57
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
99.8%
Shai Werts pass complete to Malik Murray for 4 yds to the GeoSo 41Similar
Q3 9:40
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+7
99.8%
Shai Werts pass complete to Beau Johnson for 7 yds to the GeoSo 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:04
4TH & 10
OWN 48
+13
99.8%
Anthony Beck II punt for 42 yds , Samuel Emilus returns for 13 yds to the GASOUTHERN 39 MASSACHUSETTS Penalty, Offensive Holding (10 Yards) to the UMass 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 15PUNT4 plays · 7 yds · 1:220% → 0%
Q3 8:57
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+3
99.7%
Mike Fallon pass complete to Samuel Emilus for 3 yds to the UMass 16Similar
Q3 7:58
2ND & 7
OWN 16
+4
99.7%
Mike Fallon pass complete to Taylor Edwards for 4 yds to the UMass 20Similar
Q3 7:35
4TH & 3
OWN 20
0
99.8%
George Georgopoulos punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Wesley Kennedy III at the GeoSo 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 16TD2 plays · 60 yds · 0:46100% → 100%
MASSDrive 17INT10 plays · 38 yds · 4:060% → 0%
Q3 6:00
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+6
99.8%
Josiah Johnson pass complete to Jermaine Johnson Jr. for 6 yds to the UMass 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:24
2ND & 3
OPP 47
+1
99.8%
Josiah Johnson pass complete to Taylor Edwards for 1 yd to the GeoSo 46Similar
Q3 3:54
4TH & 2
OPP 46
+12
99.8%
Josiah Johnson pass complete to Melvin Hill for 12 yds to the GeoSo 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:22
3RD & 3
OPP 27
0
99.8%
Josiah Johnson pass intercepted Darrell Baker Jr. return for no gain to the GeoSo 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 18PUNT14 plays · 39 yds · 6:18100% → 100%
Q4 12:51
2ND & 8
OWN 43
-15
99.9%
Tomlin, Justin rush for no gain to the GASOUTHERN43, PENALTY GASOUTHERN illegal block 15 yards to the GASOUTHERN28, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 11:03
4TH & 7
OWN 44
+5
99.9%
MASSACHUSETTS Penalty, Defensive Offside (Jared Chisari) to the GeoSo 49Similar
Q4 10:56
4TH & 2
OWN 49
+48
99.9%
Anthony Beck II punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Samuel Emilus at the GASOUTHERN 5 MASSACHUSETTS Penalty, Illegal Block (2 Yards) to the UMass 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 19PUNT10 plays · 37 yds · 5:530% → 0%
Q4 9:34
3RD & 11
OWN 4
+15
100.0%
Josiah Johnson pass complete to Zamar Wise for 15 yds to the UMass 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:44
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+1
100.0%
Josiah Johnson pass complete to Zamar Wise for 1 yd to the UMass 20Similar
Q4 5:41
3RD & 7
OWN 36
+4
100.0%
Josiah Johnson pass complete to Samuel Emilus for 4 yds to the UMass 40Similar
Q4 4:52
4TH & 3
OWN 40
+53
100.0%
George Georgopoulos punt for 35 yds , Khaleb Hood returns for 53 yds to the UMass 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 20FG4 plays · 8 yds · 2:07100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 21END OF 4TH QUARTER6 plays · 36 yds · 2:220% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 9:12
Shai Werts pass complete to Beau Johnson for 10 yds for a TD (Alex Raynor KICK)
+1.7
TD · Q2 1:39
Shai Werts run for 4 yds for a TD (Alex Raynor KICK)
+1
KEY PLAY · Q2 6:32
Shai Werts run for 8 yds to the GeoSo 48
+0.4