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M-OH

Miami (OH) 10 at Buffalo 42

BUF
2020 · Week 11 · Nov 10, 2020 · UB Stadium
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Win probability · BUF
modelBUF aheadM-OH aheadconfidence bandkey playBUF scoreM-OH score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 6:06 · Evan Finegan punt for 24 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Buff 40
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+36.0+18.00−18.0−36.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Q3Q4Play 33Home team on offense−0.1Pregame prior+16.3Score differential−0.2Garbage-time factor−0.2Blowout margin−0.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 9:20: Jaret Patterson run for 2 yds for a TD, (Alex McNulty KICK) — BUF win probability +5.5 pts (now 74%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 7:40: Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Trevor Wilson for 78 yds for a TD, (Alex McNulty KICK) — BUF win probability +7.9 pts (now 80%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 2:54: AJ Mayer pass complete to Jalen Walker for 33 yds for a TD, (Henry Beckett KICK) — M-OH win probability +9.0 pts (now 31%) (top driver: M-OH has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 11:06: Jaret Patterson run for 1 yd for a TD (Alex McNulty KICK) — BUF win probability +10.4 pts (now 87%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 5:22: Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Zac Lefebvre for 25 yds for a TD (Alex McNulty KICK) — BUF win probability +8.9 pts (now 97%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BUF made the numbers' call on 7 of 7M-OH made the numbers' call on 10 of 10
  1. Q1 15:00M-OH 4th & 8 at M-OH 38, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.6%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:47BUF 4th & 5 at M-OH 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 70.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    70.3%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    70.2%−0.1
    32% to make
    Punt
    70.2%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 13:47BUF 4th & 1 at M-OH 27, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 70.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    70.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    70.1%−0.2
    62% to make
    Punt
    69.8%−0.5
    average punt
  4. Q1 8:15M-OH 4th & 10 at BUF 48, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.7%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.8%
    average punt
  5. Q1 6:06BUF 4th & 7 at BUF 16, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.0%−0.2
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.3%
    average punt
  6. Q1 0:28M-OH 4th & 19 at BUF 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 32.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.8%−0.7
    11% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    32.4%
    66% to make
    Punt
    30.5%−2.0
    average punt
  7. Q2 15:00BUF 4th & 1 at M-OH 3, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 68.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    68.5%
    63% to convert
    Field goal
    67.7%−0.8
    93% to make
    Punt
    65.6%−2.9
    average punt
  8. Q2 7:40M-OH 4th & 6 at M-OH 39, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.0%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.2%
    average punt
  9. Q2 4:51BUF 4th & 6 at BUF 7, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.8%−0.9
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.7%
    average punt
  10. Q2 4:45M-OH 4th & 2 at BUF 35, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 19.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    19.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    18.8%−1.0
    45% to make
    Punt
    18.3%−1.5
    average punt
  11. Q2 2:54BUF 4th & 13 at BUF 45, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.7%−0.8
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.5%
    average punt
  12. Q4 15:00M-OH 4th & 10 at M-OH 25, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.3%−2.6
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.9%
    average punt
  13. Q3 11:06M-OH 4th & 8 at BUF 44, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.0%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    14.1%−1.0
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    15.2%
    average punt
  14. Q3 5:22M-OH 4th & 12 at M-OH 23, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.5%−1.0
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.5%
    average punt
  15. Q4 8:53M-OH 4th & 5 at BUF 5, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−<0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    0.1%
    92% to make
    Punt
    -0.1%−0.3
    average punt
  16. Q4 8:53BUF 4th & 9 at BUF 26, up 32
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
  17. Q4 6:03M-OH 4th & 4 at BUF 30, down 32
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%−<0.1
    56% to make
    Punt
    0.1%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BUF made the numbers' call on 6 of 6M-OH made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q2 9:20BUF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 7:40BUF Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 2:54M-OH Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    25.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    25.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 11:06BUF Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 5:22BUF Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 0:01BUF Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 13:36BUF Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
M-OHDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 13 yds · 0:0031% → 31%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
69.2%
AJ Mayer pass complete to Jack Sorenson for 11 yds to the MiaOh 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
69.2%
Jeremiah Josephs run for 2 yds to the MiaOh 38Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 38
0
69.2%
AJ Mayer pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 38
0
69.2%
AJ Mayer pass incomplete to James BurnsSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 8
OWN 38
0
69.2%
Henry Beckett punt for 39 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Buff 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 2DOWNS
14 plays · 50 yds · 0:0069% → 69%
Q1 13:47
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+10
69.0%
VANTREASE, Kyle pass incomplete to NUNN, Antonio, PENALTY MIAMI holding (WEATHERFORD, S.) 10 yards to the UB33, 1ST DOWN UB, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 13:47
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
69.0%
Jaret Patterson run for 2 yds to the Buff 35Similar
Q1 13:47
2ND & 8
OWN 35
+7
69.0%
Jaret Patterson run for 7 yds to the Buff 42Similar
Q1 13:47
3RD & 1
OWN 42
+2
69.1%
Jaret Patterson run for 2 yds to the Buff 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:47
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+8
69.1%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Jovany Ruiz for 8 yds to the MiaOh 48Similar
Q1 13:47
2ND & 2
OPP 48
+2
69.2%
Kevin Marks Jr. run for 2 yds to the MiaOh 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:47
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+6
69.2%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Bernard Porter for 6 yds to the MiaOh 40Similar
Q1 13:47
2ND & 4
OPP 40
0
69.2%
Kyle Vantrease pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:47
3RD & 4
OPP 40
-1
69.1%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Zac Lefebvre for a loss of 1 yard to the MiaOh 41Similar
Q1 13:47
4TH & 5
OPP 41
+5
69.1%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Zac Lefebvre for 5 yds to the MiaOh 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:47
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
69.2%
Kyle Vantrease pass incomplete to Antonio NunnSimilar
Q1 13:47
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+7
69.2%
Kevin Marks Jr. run for 7 yds to the MiaOh 29Similar
Q1 13:47
3RD & 3
OPP 29
+2
69.1%
Kevin Marks Jr. run for 2 yds to the MiaOh 27Similar
Q1 13:47
4TH & 1
OPP 27
0
69.1%
Jaret Patterson run for no gain to the MiaOh 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 25 yds · 0:0032% → 32%
Q1 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+6
68.0%
Kevin Davis run for 6 yds to the MiaOh 33Similar
Q1 8:15
2ND & 4
OWN 33
+19
67.8%
AJ Mayer pass complete to Jack Sorenson for 19 yds to the Buff 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:15
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
67.4%
AJ Mayer pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:15
2ND & 10
OPP 48
0
67.5%
Ontario Russell run for no gain to the Buff 48Similar
Q1 8:15
3RD & 10
OPP 48
0
67.8%
AJ Mayer pass incomplete to James Burns, broken up by Tyrone HillSimilar
Q1 8:15
4TH & 10
OPP 48
0
68.2%
Dom Dzioban punt for 45 yds, downed at the Buff 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 4PUNT
7 plays · 13 yds · 0:0068% → 67%
Q1 6:06
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+2
67.6%
Jaret Patterson run for 2 yds to the Buff 5Similar
Q1 6:06
2ND & 8
OWN 5
+5
67.6%
MIAMI OH Penalty, Defensive offside (5 Yards) to the Buff 10Similar
Q1 6:06
2ND & 3
OWN 10
+3
67.6%
Jaret Patterson run for 3 yds to the Buff 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:06
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+3
67.7%
Jaret Patterson run for 3 yds to the Buff 16Similar
Q1 6:06
2ND & 7
OWN 16
0
67.7%
Kyle Vantrease pass incomplete to Zac Lefebvre, broken up by Sterling WeatherfordSimilar
Q1 6:06
3RD & 7
OWN 16
0
67.3%
Kyle Vantrease pass incomplete to Antonio NunnSimilar
Q1 6:06
4TH & 7
OWN 16
0
67.1%
Evan Finegan punt for 24 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Buff 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 5MISSED FG
9 plays · 15 yds · 3:1634% → 33%
Q1 3:44
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+8
66.1%
Zach Kahn run for 8 yds to the Buff 32Similar
Q1 3:44
2ND & 2
OPP 32
+9
65.7%
Kevin Davis run for 9 yds to the Buff 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:44
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
65.7%
Zach Kahn run for no gain to the Buff 23Similar
Q1 3:44
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+7
65.8%
MAYER, AJ pass incomplete to SORENSON, Jack (HUDGENS, Logic), PENALTY UB pass interference (HUDGENS, Logic) 7 yards to the UB16, 1ST DOWN MIAMI, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:44
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-1
65.7%
Zach Kahn run for a loss of 1 yard to the Buff 17Similar
Q1 3:44
2ND & 11
OPP 17
-10
65.8%
MAYER, AJ pass incomplete to SORENSON, Jack, PENALTY MIAMI holding (SHAFFER, Caleb) 10 yards to the UB27, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:44
2ND & 21
OPP 27
+2
66.3%
Zach Kahn run for 2 yds to the Buff 25Similar
Q1 3:44
3RD & 19
OPP 25
0
66.8%
AJ Mayer pass incomplete to Jack Sorenson, broken up by Logic HudgensSimilar
Q1 0:28
4TH & 19
OPP 25
+44
66.6%
Henry Beckett 44 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 6TD
14 plays · 74 yds · 6:0867% → 74%
Q1 0:28
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
67.2%
Kevin Marks Jr. run for 3 yds to the Buff 29Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 29
+7
67.2%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Kevin Marks Jr. for 7 yds to the Buff 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
67.4%
Kyle Vantrease pass incomplete to Antonio NunnSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+4
67.2%
Kevin Marks Jr. run for 4 yds to the Buff 40Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 40
+10
67.1%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Antonio Nunn for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
50
+8
68.3%
Kyle Vantrease run for 8 yds to the MiaOh 42Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 42
0
68.5%
Kyle Vantrease pass incomplete to Bernard PorterSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 42
+30
68.2%
Kevin Marks Jr. run for 30 yds to the MiaOh 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+4
68.8%
Kevin Marks Jr. run for 4 yds to the MiaOh 8Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 8
+4
68.8%
Jaret Patterson run for 4 yds to the MiaOh 4Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 4
+1
68.2%
Kyle Vantrease run for 1 yd to the MiaOh 3Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 3
+2
67.5%
Jaret Patterson run for 2 yds to the MiaOh 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
68.8%
Kyle Vantrease run for a loss of 1 yard to the MiaOh 2Similar
Q2 9:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
74.3%
Jaret Patterson run for 2 yds for a TD, (Alex McNulty KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 7INT
7 plays · 21 yds · 0:0028% → 28%
Q2 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
72.2%
AJ Mayer pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:20
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
72.3%
Ontario Russell run for 1 yd to the MiaOh 26Similar
Q2 9:20
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+20
72.8%
AJ Mayer pass complete to Kevin Davis for 20 yds to the MiaOh 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
70.8%
AJ Mayer pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:20
2ND & 10
OWN 46
0
71.2%
AJ Mayer pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:20
3RD & 10
OWN 46
0
71.8%
AJ Mayer pass intercepted Roy Baker return for no gain to the Buff 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 8TD
1 play · 78 yds · 0:0080% → 80%
Q2 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+78
79.6%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Trevor Wilson for 78 yds for a TD, (Alex McNulty KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 0:0021% → 21%
Q2 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
78.8%
AJ Mayer pass complete to Jack Sorenson for 8 yds to the MiaOh 43Similar
Q2 7:40
2ND & 2
OWN 43
-10
78.2%
KAHN, Zach rush for 3 yards to the MIAMI46 (MYERS, Matt), PENALTY MIAMI holding (DOYLE, Tommy) 10 yards to the MIAMI33, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:40
2ND & 12
OWN 33
+6
79.1%
Zach Kahn run for 6 yds to the MiaOh 39Similar
Q2 7:40
3RD & 6
OWN 39
0
78.7%
AJ Mayer pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:40
4TH & 6
OWN 39
0
79.2%
Dom Dzioban punt for 58 yds, downed at the Buff 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:4880% → 77%
Q2 5:39
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+4
80.1%
Jaret Patterson run for 4 yds to the Buff 7Similar
Q2 5:39
2ND & 6
OWN 7
0
80.1%
Kyle Vantrease pass incomplete to Antonio NunnSimilar
Q2 4:51
3RD & 6
OWN 7
0
77.7%
Kyle Vantrease pass incomplete to Trevor Wilson, broken up by Cedric BoswellSimilar
Q2 4:51
4TH & 6
OWN 7
0
77.2%
Evan Finegan punt for 36 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 11TD
5 plays · 43 yds · 1:5122% → 31%
Q2 4:45
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
77.6%
AJ Mayer pass incomplete to James BurnsSimilar
Q2 4:45
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+1
77.9%
Ontario Russell run for 1 yd to the Buff 42Similar
Q2 4:45
3RD & 9
OPP 42
+7
78.2%
Kevin Davis run for 7 yds to the Buff 35Similar
Q2 4:45
4TH & 2
OPP 35
+2
78.1%
Kevin Davis run for 2 yds to the Buff 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:54
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+33
69.2%
AJ Mayer pass complete to Jalen Walker for 33 yds for a TD, (Henry Beckett KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 12PUNT
10 plays · 20 yds · 0:0074% → 72%
Q2 2:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
73.6%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Antonio Nunn for 11 yds to the Buff 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:54
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
74.4%
Kyle Vantrease pass incomplete to Jovany RuizSimilar
Q2 2:54
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+12
73.9%
Kevin Marks Jr. run for 12 yds to the Buff 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:54
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
75.5%
Kyle Vantrease pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:54
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+4
75.2%
Kevin Marks Jr. run for 4 yds to the MiaOh 48Similar
Q2 2:54
3RD & 6
OPP 48
+3
74.8%
Kevin Marks Jr. run for 3 yds to the MiaOh 45Similar
Q2 2:54
4TH & 3
OPP 45
-5
73.9%
[PSTL], PENALTY UB delay of game 5 yards to the 50 yardline, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:54
4TH & 8
50
-5
73.1%
BUFFALO Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Buff 45Similar
Q2 2:54
4TH & 13
OWN 45
0
72.3%
Evan Finegan punt for 48 yds, downed at the MiaOh 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 13END OF HALF
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0026% → 26%
Q2 0:07
1ST & 10
OWN 7
-2
73.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the MiaOh 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0022% → 19%
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
78.3%
AJ Mayer pass incomplete to Jalen WalkerSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
78.5%
AJ Mayer pass incomplete to Jack ColdironSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
79.6%
AJ Mayer pass incomplete to Kevin Davis, broken up by Kadofi WrightSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
80.6%
Dom Dzioban punt for 59 yds, downed at the Buff 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 15TD
10 plays · 81 yds · 3:5075% → 87%
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+12
74.9%
Jaret Patterson run for 2 yds to the Buff 21 for a 1ST down MIAMI OH Penalty, Defensive holding (Anthony Collier) to the Buff 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+6
75.1%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Jake Molinich for 6 yds to the Buff 37Similar
Q3 14:56
2ND & 4
OWN 37
+19
76.2%
Kevin Marks Jr. run for 19 yds to the MiaOh 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+9
76.9%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Antonio Nunn for 9 yds to the MiaOh 35Similar
Q3 14:56
2ND & 1
OPP 35
+15
77.0%
Jaret Patterson run for 15 yds to the MiaOh 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
77.0%
Jaret Patterson run for no gain to the MiaOh 20Similar
Q3 14:56
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+5
77.0%
Jaret Patterson run for 5 yds to the MiaOh 15Similar
Q3 14:56
3RD & 5
OPP 15
+14
76.3%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Jovany Ruiz for 14 yds to the MiaOh 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
86.7%
Jaret Patterson run for 1 yd for a TD (Alex McNulty KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 31 yds · 0:0015% → 16%
Q3 11:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+29
85.0%
AJ Mayer pass complete to Austin Robinson for 29 yds to the Buff 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:06
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+2
83.2%
Kevin Davis run for 2 yds to the Buff 44Similar
Q3 11:06
2ND & 8
OPP 44
0
83.2%
AJ Mayer pass incomplete to James BurnsSimilar
Q3 11:06
3RD & 8
OPP 44
0
83.7%
AJ Mayer pass incomplete to James Burns, broken up by Tyrone HillSimilar
Q3 11:06
4TH & 8
OPP 44
0
84.5%
Dom Dzioban punt for 26 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 17TD
8 plays · 82 yds · 4:1787% → 97%
Q3 9:39
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+2
87.0%
Kevin Marks Jr. run for 2 yds to the Buff 20Similar
Q3 9:39
2ND & 8
OWN 20
+25
87.0%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Trevor Wilson for 25 yds to the Buff 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:39
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
87.7%
Kevin Marks Jr. run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 9:39
2ND & 5
50
-10
87.6%
[PSTL], VANTREASE, Kyle pass complete to RUIZ, Jovany for 19 yards to the MIAMI31, out-of-bounds (SALOPEK, Matt), PENALTY UB holding (THOMAS-ISHMAN,) 10 yards to the UB40, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:39
2ND & 15
OWN 40
+5
87.3%
Kevin Marks Jr. run for 5 yds to the Buff 45Similar
Q3 9:39
3RD & 10
OWN 45
+25
86.9%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Antonio Nunn for 25 yds to the MiaOh 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:39
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+5
87.7%
Kevin Marks Jr. run for 5 yds to the MiaOh 25Similar
Q3 5:22
2ND & 5
OPP 25
+25
96.5%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Zac Lefebvre for 25 yds for a TD (Alex McNulty KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q3 5:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
95.8%
Kevin Davis run for 1 yd to the MiaOh 26Similar
Q3 5:22
2ND & 9
OWN 26
-4
95.8%
AJ Mayer pass complete to Kevin Davis for a loss of 4 yards to the MiaOh 22Similar
Q3 5:22
3RD & 13
OWN 22
+1
95.9%
AJ Mayer run for 1 yd to the MiaOh 23Similar
Q3 5:22
4TH & 12
OWN 23
0
95.9%
Dom Dzioban punt for 39 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 19TD
7 plays · 62 yds · 3:3197% → 100%
Q3 3:32
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+6
97.1%
Jaret Patterson run for 6 yds to the Buff 44Similar
Q3 3:32
2ND & 4
OWN 44
+10
97.2%
Jaret Patterson run for 10 yds to the MiaOh 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:12
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+38
98.0%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Zac Lefebvre for 38 yds to the MiaOh 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
98.0%
Jaret Patterson run for no gain to the MiaOh 8Similar
Q3 2:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
98.0%
Jaret Patterson run for 3 yds to the MiaOh 5Similar
Q3 0:01
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
99.7%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Jovany Ruiz for 5 yds for a TD (Alex McNulty KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 20TD
2 plays · 84 yds · 0:56100% → 100%
Q4 14:32
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+2
99.7%
Kevin Marks Jr. run for 2 yds to the Buff 18Similar
Q4 13:36
2ND & 8
OWN 18
+82
99.7%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Antonio Nunn for 82 yds for a TD (Alex McNulty KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 21FG
11 plays · 60 yds · 4:430% → 0%
Q4 13:36
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
99.8%
Kevin Davis run for 4 yds to the MiaOh 39Similar
Q4 13:36
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+4
99.8%
Zach Kahn run for 4 yds to the MiaOh 43Similar
Q4 13:36
3RD & 2
OWN 43
+8
99.8%
Zach Kahn run for 8 yds to the Buff 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:36
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
99.8%
AJ Mayer pass incomplete to Austin RobinsonSimilar
Q4 13:36
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+12
99.8%
Zach Kahn run for 12 yds to the Buff 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:36
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+32
99.8%
Kenny Tracy run for 32 yds to the Buff 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
99.7%
Kenny Tracy run for no gain to the Buff 5Similar
Q4 13:36
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
99.7%
Kenny Tracy run for no gain to the Buff 5Similar
Q4 13:36
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
99.8%
AJ Mayer pass incomplete to Jack Coldiron, broken up by Kadofi WrightSimilar
Q4 8:53
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+24
99.8%
Henry Beckett 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 22PUNT
6 plays · 1 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 8:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
99.9%
[PSTL], COOK, Ron rush for 7 yards to the UB32 (MILLER, Mehki), PENALTY UB holding 10 yards to the UB15, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:53
1ST & 20
OWN 15
+2
99.9%
Ron Cook Jr. run for 2 yds to the Buff 17Similar
Q4 8:53
2ND & 18
OWN 17
+7
99.9%
Ron Cook Jr. run for 7 yds to the Buff 24Similar
Q4 8:53
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+2
99.9%
Ron Cook Jr. run for 2 yds to the Buff 26Similar
Q4 8:53
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
99.9%
Jackson Baltar punt for 41 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MiaOh 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 23DOWNS
8 plays · 37 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 6:03
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+14
99.9%
Aveon Smith run for 14 yds to the MiaOh 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:03
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+4
99.9%
Kenny Tracy run for 4 yds to the Buff 49Similar
Q4 6:03
2ND & 6
OPP 49
+3
99.9%
Kenny Tracy run for 3 yds to the Buff 46Similar
Q4 6:03
3RD & 3
OPP 46
+10
99.9%
Aveon Smith run for 10 yds to the Buff 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:03
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+3
99.9%
Aveon Smith pass complete to Kenny Tracy for 3 yds to the Buff 33Similar
Q4 6:03
2ND & 7
OPP 33
-1
99.9%
Kenny Tracy run for a loss of 1 yard to the Buff 34 Kenny Tracy fumbled, forced by Kyler Laing,Similar
Q4 6:03
3RD & 8
OPP 34
+4
99.9%
Aveon Smith run for 4 yds to the Buff 30Similar
Q4 6:03
4TH & 4
OPP 30
0
99.8%
Kenny Tracy run for no gain to the Buff 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 24Uncategorized
3 plays · 4 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 1:42
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
99.9%
Dylan McDuffie run for 4 yds to the Buff 34Similar
Q4 1:42
2ND & 6
OWN 34
-1
99.9%
N/A run for a loss of 1 yard to the Buff 33Similar
Q4 1:42
3RD & 7
OWN 33
-1
99.9%
N/A run for a loss of 1 yard to the Buff 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 11:06
Jaret Patterson run for 1 yd for a TD (Alex McNulty KICK)
+10.4
TD · Q2 2:54
AJ Mayer pass complete to Jalen Walker for 33 yds for a TD, (Henry Beckett KICK)
-9
TD · Q3 5:22
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Zac Lefebvre for 25 yds for a TD (Alex McNulty KICK)
+8.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com