2020 · Week 10 · Nov 4, 2020 · Yager Stadium
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Win probability · M-OH
modelM-OH aheadBALL aheadconfidence bandkey playM-OH scoreBALL score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 1:34 · 38-N.Snyder punts 51 yards from BALL 35 to MOH 14, fair catch by 13-J.Sorenson.
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remainingBlowout margin
This game in five plays
- TD · Q3 7:26: 10-A.Mayer complete to 89-J.Coldiron. 89-J.Coldiron runs 6 yards for a touchdown. — M-OH win probability +18.5 pts (now 51%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
- TD · Q3 1:40: 10-A.Mayer complete to 89-J.Coldiron. 89-J.Coldiron runs 14 yards for a touchdown. — M-OH win probability +23.1 pts (now 68%) (top driver: M-OH has the ball).
- TD · Q4 7:10: 2-C.Huntley runs 18 yards for a touchdown. — BALL win probability +26.9 pts (now 41%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
- FG · Q4 1:13: 34-J.Knight 47 yards Field Goal is Good. — BALL win probability +21.7 pts (now 53%) (top driver: BALL has the ball).
- TD · Q4 0:14: 29-Z.Kahn runs 2 yards for a touchdown. — M-OH win probability +30.9 pts (now 94%) (top driver: M-OH has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
M-OH made the numbers' call on 3 of 5BALL made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
- Q1 13:12M-OH 4th & 1 at M-OH 34, tiedClose callPunted · 49.2% before the snapGo for it49.3%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call49.2%−0.1average punt
- Q1 10:17M-OH 4th & 5 at M-OH 41, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 49.7% before the snapGo for it49.7%−0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call49.8%average punt
- Q1 1:34BALL 4th & 4 at BALL 35, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.5% before the snapGo for it54.7%−<0.148% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call54.8%average punt
- Q2 2:43BALL 4th & 15 at M-OH 17, up 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 61.6% before the snapGo for it59.3%−1.515% to convertField goalTheir call60.9%80% to makePunt55.9%−4.9average punt
- Q2 0:47M-OH 4th & 17 at BALL 19, down 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 39.0% before the snapGo for it36.9%−2.713% to convertField goalTheir call39.6%77% to makePunt33.1%−6.6average punt
- Q3 10:44M-OH 4th & 2 at BALL 38, down 11Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 30.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call30.5%57% to convertField goal28.2%−2.338% to makePunt28.3%−2.2average punt
- Q3 3:52BALL 4th & 6 at M-OH 45, up 4Close callPunted · 61.8% before the snapGo for it62.9%40% to convertField goal59.8%−3.025% to makePuntTheir call62.4%−0.4average punt
- Q4 4:14M-OH 4th & 2 at M-OH 46, up 3Numbers favored go for it by 2.9 ptsPunted · 78.6% before the snapGo for it79.6%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call76.7%−2.9average punt
- Q4 1:13BALL 4th & 8 at M-OH 30, down 3Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 26.5% before the snapGo for it18.8%−9.234% to convertField goalTheir call28.0%56% to makePunt11.2%−16.8average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
M-OH made the numbers' call on 5 of 5BALL made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
- Q1 7:07BALL Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call51.6%97% to makeGo for two51.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 11:07M-OH Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call50.6%97% to makeGo for two50.6%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 9:22BALL Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call55.9%97% to makeGo for two55.8%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 12:36BALL Touchdown, up 10 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call69.1%97% to makeGo for two69.0%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 7:26M-OH Touchdown, down 5 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call41.0%97% to makeGo for two40.8%−0.245% to convert
- Q3 1:40M-OH Touchdown, up 2 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call61.4%97% to makeGo for two61.2%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 9:54M-OH Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call88.2%97% to makeGo for two87.8%−0.445% to convert
- Q4 7:10BALL Touchdown, down 4 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call27.7%97% to makeGo for two27.2%−0.545% to convert
- Q4 0:14M-OH Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call88.2%97% to makeGo for two86.3%−1.945% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartM-OHDrive 1PUNT4 plays · 9 yds · 1:4850% → 51%
M-OHDrive 2PUNT6 plays · 5 yds · 1:1751% → 51%
Q1 10:45
3RD & 8
OWN 38
0
51.0%
Penalty on MOH 51-D.Godlevske, False start, 5 yards, enforced at MOH 38. No Play.Similar
Q1 10:45
3RD & 13
OWN 33
+8
50.8%
5-B.Gabbert complete to 13-J.Sorenson. 13-J.Sorenson to MOH 41 for 8 yards (9-C.Albright).Similar
Q1 10:17
4TH & 5
OWN 41
+49
51.0%
31-D.Dzioban punts 49 yards from MOH 41. 11-J.Hall to BALL 10 for no gain (48-R.Newton).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 3TD8 plays · 90 yds · 2:5949% → 53%
Q1 10:06
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+33
51.0%
9-D.Plitt complete to 1-A.Davis. 1-A.Davis to BALL 43 for 33 yards (21-S.Weatherford).Similar
Q1 9:11
3RD & 6
OWN 47
+10
50.7%
9-D.Plitt complete to 6-Y.Tyler. 6-Y.Tyler to MOH 43 for 10 yards (35-R.McWood).Similar
Q1 8:10
2ND & 6
OPP 39
+17
50.4%
9-D.Plitt complete to 1-A.Davis. 1-A.Davis to MOH 22 for 17 yards (25-D.McCullough,2-C.Singleton).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 4FUMBLE10 plays · 68 yds · 3:4248% → 49%
Q1 5:01
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
49.1%
5-B.Gabbert incomplete. Intended for 13-J.Sorenson. Penalty on BALL 21-A.Phillips, Holding, 10 yards, enforced at BALL 48. No Play.Similar
Q1 4:14
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+32
49.0%
5-B.Gabbert complete to 13-J.Sorenson. 13-J.Sorenson to BALL 6 for 32 yards (17-N.Jones).Similar
Q1 3:19
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+22
49.4%
4-O.Russell to BALL 3, FUMBLES (13-J.Williams). 95-E.Jillani to BALL 29 for 22 yards (89-J.Coldiron).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 5PUNT5 plays · 6 yds · 1:3253% → 53%
Q1 1:34
4TH & 4
OWN 35
+51
46.6%
38-N.Snyder punts 51 yards from BALL 35 to MOH 14, fair catch by 13-J.Sorenson.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 6TD17 plays · 86 yds · 5:1947% → 56%
Q1 0:50
2ND & 9
OWN 15
0
46.3%
5-B.Gabbert incomplete. Intended for 13-J.Sorenson. Penalty on BALL 21-A.Phillips, Pass interference, 10 yards, enforced at MOH 15. No Play.Similar
Q1 0:10
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+12
47.0%
5-B.Gabbert complete to 23-D.Johnson. 23-D.Johnson pushed ob at MOH 43 for 12 yards (6-J.Thomas).Similar
Q2 14:11
3RD & 12
OWN 41
+15
45.7%
5-B.Gabbert complete to 23-D.Johnson. 23-D.Johnson pushed ob at BALL 44 for 15 yards (23-B.Anderson).Similar
Q2 12:43
3RD & 9
OPP 43
+6
46.9%
5-B.Gabbert scrambles to BALL 37 for 6 yards (7-B.Martin,5-B.Cosby).Similar
Q2 12:43
4TH & 3
OPP 37
+15
46.6%
Penalty on BALL 5-B.Cosby, Personal Foul, 15 yards, enforced at BALL 37.Similar
Q2 11:48
2ND & 8
OPP 20
+10
48.3%
10-A.Mayer complete to 87-A.Mehelic. 87-A.Mehelic to BALL 10 for 10 yards (42-H.Grenda).Similar
Q2 11:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
48.2%
10-A.Mayer incomplete. Intended for 13-J.Sorenson. Penalty on BALL 3-A.Uzodinma, Pass interference, 8 yards, enforced at BALL 10. No Play.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 7TD6 plays · 84 yds · 1:3648% → 56%
BALLDrive 8MISSED FG11 plays · 32 yds · 4:2160% → 61%
M-OHDrive 9FG10 plays · 53 yds · 1:5341% → 46%
Q2 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+27
40.7%
10-A.Mayer complete to 26-K.Davis. 26-K.Davis to MOH 47 for 27 yards (21-A.Phillips).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 10MISSED FG8 plays · 38 yds · 0:3655% → 59%
Q2 0:24
2ND & 7
OWN 25
+6
44.8%
9-D.Plitt complete to 6-Y.Tyler. 6-Y.Tyler runs ob at BALL 31 for 6 yards.Similar
Q2 0:18
3RD & 1
OWN 31
+6
44.3%
9-D.Plitt complete to 6-Y.Tyler. 6-Y.Tyler runs ob at BALL 37 for 6 yards.Similar
Q2 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+9
44.0%
9-D.Plitt complete to 11-J.Hall. 11-J.Hall to BALL 46 for 9 yards (4-C.Rogers).Similar
Q2 0:10
2ND & 1
OWN 46
+13
42.1%
9-D.Plitt scrambles to BALL 40, FUMBLES. 9-D.Plitt recovers at the BALL 40. 9-D.Plitt to MOH 47 for 13 yards (4-C.Rogers).Similar
Q2 0:10
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
41.8%
Penalty on MOH 4-C.Rogers, Personal Foul, 15 yards, enforced at MOH 47. No Play.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 11TD9 plays · 80 yds · 2:1955% → 70%
Q3 14:31
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+7
44.6%
9-D.Plitt scrambles to BALL 31 for 7 yards (21-S.Weatherford,92-A.Ertl).Similar
Q3 13:41
3RD & 4
OWN 37
+5
43.9%
9-D.Plitt complete to 6-Y.Tyler. 6-Y.Tyler to BALL 42 for 5 yards (5-E.Rugamba).Similar
Q3 13:26
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+9
42.6%
9-D.Plitt complete to 1-A.Davis. 1-A.Davis to MOH 49 for 9 yards (5-E.Rugamba).Similar
Q3 12:56
2ND & 1
OPP 49
+4
41.6%
9-D.Plitt complete to 1-A.Davis. 1-A.Davis to MOH 45 for 4 yards (5-E.Rugamba,0-I.Pace).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 12TD12 plays · 79 yds · 4:5531% → 51%
Q3 12:21
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+33
31.4%
10-A.Mayer complete to 13-J.Sorenson. 13-J.Sorenson to BALL 46 for 33 yards (3-A.Uzodinma).Similar
Q3 12:05
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+4
34.0%
10-A.Mayer complete to 29-Z.Kahn. 29-Z.Kahn to BALL 42 for 4 yards (7-B.Martin).Similar
Q3 10:44
4TH & 2
OPP 38
+5
30.3%
10-A.Mayer complete to 13-J.Sorenson. 13-J.Sorenson to BALL 33 for 5 yards (21-A.Phillips).Similar
Q3 10:13
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+3
33.1%
23-D.Johnson to BALL 30 for 3 yards (9-C.Albright,90-J.Tarango).Similar
Q3 8:59
3RD & 4
OPP 27
+9
30.8%
10-A.Mayer complete to 23-D.Johnson. 23-D.Johnson to BALL 18 for 9 yards (7-B.Martin).Similar
Q3 7:26
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
50.5%
10-A.Mayer complete to 89-J.Coldiron. 89-J.Coldiron runs 6 yards for a touchdown.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 13PUNT11 plays · 29 yds · 3:1858% → 62%
M-OHDrive 14TD6 plays · 98 yds · 2:0440% → 68%
Q3 3:44
1ST & 10
OWN 2
0
39.8%
10-A.Mayer incomplete. Intended for 13-J.Sorenson. Penalty on BALL 3-A.Uzodinma, Pass interference, 15 yards, enforced at MOH 2. No Play.Similar
Q3 3:23
2ND & 4
OWN 23
+18
41.1%
10-A.Mayer complete to 13-J.Sorenson. 13-J.Sorenson to MOH 41 for 18 yards (23-B.Anderson).Similar
Q3 2:14
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+28
45.1%
10-A.Mayer complete to 13-J.Sorenson. 13-J.Sorenson to BALL 14 for 28 yards (3-A.Uzodinma).Similar
Q3 1:40
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
68.2%
10-A.Mayer complete to 89-J.Coldiron. 89-J.Coldiron runs 14 yards for a touchdown.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 15TD11 plays · 52 yds · 5:0167% → 86%
Q4 14:13
2ND & 9
OWN 49
+11
70.3%
10-A.Mayer complete to 26-K.Davis. 26-K.Davis to BALL 40 for 11 yards (27-J.Daw).Similar
Q4 13:02
2ND & 7
OPP 37
+16
72.0%
10-A.Mayer complete to 19-J.Burns. 19-J.Burns to BALL 21 for 16 yards (27-J.Daw).Similar
Q4 11:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
73.8%
10-A.Mayer complete to 26-K.Davis. 26-K.Davis to BALL 5 for 2 yards (6-J.Thomas).Similar
Q4 9:54
3RD & GOAL
OPP 12
+12
86.4%
10-A.Mayer complete to 83-J.Walker. 83-J.Walker runs 12 yards for a touchdown.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 16TD8 plays · 59 yds · 2:2814% → 41%
Q4 9:38
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+9
85.8%
9-D.Plitt complete to 6-Y.Tyler. 6-Y.Tyler to BALL 50 for 9 yards.Similar
Q4 9:11
2ND & 1
OPP 0
+5
83.4%
9-D.Plitt complete to 6-Y.Tyler. 6-Y.Tyler to MOH 45 for 5 yards (0-C.Agyemang).Similar
Q4 8:47
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+12
85.1%
9-D.Plitt complete to 6-Y.Tyler. 6-Y.Tyler to MOH 33 for 12 yards (2-C.Singleton).Similar
Q4 7:56
2ND & 12
OPP 35
0
84.7%
9-D.Plitt incomplete. Intended for 1-A.Davis. Team penalty on MOH, Holding, 5 yards, enforced at MOH 30. No Play.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 17PUNT7 plays · 21 yds · 2:5271% → 78%
Q4 6:32
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+15
71.6%
10-A.Mayer complete to 13-J.Sorenson. 13-J.Sorenson to MOH 38 for 15 yards (21-A.Phillips).Similar
Q4 5:47
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
74.2%
10-A.Mayer complete to 29-Z.Kahn. 29-Z.Kahn to MOH 39 for 1 yard (9-C.Albright).Similar
Q4 4:14
4TH & 2
OWN 46
+40
78.0%
31-D.Dzioban punts 40 yards from MOH 46 to the BALL 14, downed by 18-C.Boswell.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 18FG10 plays · 49 yds · 2:5132% → 53%
Q4 2:22
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+31
70.9%
9-D.Plitt complete to 11-J.Hall. 11-J.Hall to MOH 32 for 31 yards (5-E.Rugamba).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 19INT1 play · 0 yds · 0:0050% → 50%
Q4 0:42
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-18
49.8%
9-D.Plitt incomplete. INTERCEPTED by 35-R.McWood at BALL 24. 35-R.McWood to BALL 6 for 18 yards (9-D.Plitt).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 20TD5 plays · 6 yds · 0:1666% → 94%
BALLDrive 21END OF GAME1 play · 20 yds · 0:0012% → 12%
Q4 0:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
88.2%
9-D.Plitt complete to 6-Y.Tyler. 6-Y.Tyler 11-J.Hall pushed ob at BALL 45 for 10 yards (15-M.Salopek).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:14
29-Z.Kahn runs 2 yards for a touchdown.
+30.9
TD · Q4 7:10
2-C.Huntley runs 18 yards for a touchdown.
-26.9
TD · Q3 1:40
10-A.Mayer complete to 89-J.Coldiron. 89-J.Coldiron runs 14 yards for a touchdown.
+23.1