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CMU

Central Michigan 23 at Toledo 24

TOL
2020 · Week 15 · Dec 12, 2020 · Glass Bowl
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Win probability · TOL
modelTOL aheadCMU aheadconfidence bandkey playTOL scoreCMU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGFGTDTDFGFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 10:32 · Luke Elzinga punt for 37 yds, downed at the CMich 45
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+28.0+14.00−14.0−28.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 18Pregame prior+26.0Home team on offense−0.9Garbage-time factor−0.3Score differential−0.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:27: Carter Bradley pass complete to Isaiah Winstead for 13 yds for a TD (Thomas Cluckey KICK) — TOL win probability +8.6 pts (now 80%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 13:31: Lew Nichols III run for 68 yds for a TD (Marshall Meeder KICK) — CMU win probability +12.7 pts (now 35%) (top driver: CMU has the ball).
  3. FG · Q3 5:49: Marshall Meeder 53 yd FG GOOD — CMU win probability +5.9 pts (now 44%) (top driver: CMU has the ball).
  4. FG · Q3 3:02: Marshall Meeder 47 yd FG GOOD — CMU win probability +9.8 pts (now 58%) (top driver: CMU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 1:33: Carter Bradley pass complete to Jerjuan Newton for 28 yds for a TD (Thomas Cluckey KICK) — TOL win probability +37.2 pts (now 77%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TOL made the numbers' call on 8 of 8CMU made the numbers' call on 7 of 12
  1. Q1 11:12TOL 4th & 6 at TOL 39, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.5%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:32CMU 4th & 5 at CMU 8, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.5%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.6%
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:25CMU 4th & 12 at CMU 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.1%−0.4
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.5%
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:04TOL 4th & 6 at CMU 6, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 74.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.2%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    74.2%
    91% to make
    Punt
    72.5%−1.7
    average punt
  5. Q2 15:00CMU 4th & 4 at CMU 31, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.8%−0.3
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.0%
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:48TOL 4th & 10 at TOL 19, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.2%−0.5
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.6%
    average punt
  7. Q2 10:37CMU 4th & 3 at TOL 5, down 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 26.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.9%
    45% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    26.4%−0.5
    92% to make
    Punt
    23.1%−3.8
    average punt
  8. Q2 10:32TOL 4th & 4 at TOL 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.8%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.9%
    average punt
  9. Q2 8:43CMU 4th & 7 at TOL 48, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.4%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.6%
    average punt
  10. Q2 6:22CMU 4th & 6 at CMU 11, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.9%−1.0
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.9%
    average punt
  11. Q2 3:51CMU 4th & 3 at CMU 40, tied
    Close callPunted · 31.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.4%−0.4
    average punt
  12. Q3 15:00TOL 4th & 10 at TOL 35, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.2%−1.4
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.6%
    average punt
  13. Q3 13:27TOL 4th & 17 at CMU 43, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.4%−1.9
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    67.2%−1.2
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    68.3%
    average punt
  14. Q3 5:49CMU 4th & 11 at TOL 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 36.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.2%−0.6
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    37.8%
    45% to make
    Punt
    36.5%−1.3
    average punt
  15. Q3 3:02CMU 4th & 4 at TOL 29, up 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsKicked a field goal · 48.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    46.9%−1.2
    58% to make
    Punt
    37.2%−10.9
    average punt
  16. Q3 2:58TOL 4th & 19 at TOL 21, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.5%−7.0
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.5%
    average punt
  17. Q4 15:00CMU 4th & 5 at TOL 46, up 6
    Close callPunted · 62.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.9%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    60.3%−3.6
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    63.3%−0.6
    average punt
  18. Q4 11:45CMU 4th & 12 at CMU 48, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.3%−2.4
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.7%
    average punt
  19. Q4 8:55TOL 4th & 17 at TOL 17, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.7%−4.6
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.3%
    average punt
  20. Q4 7:45CMU 4th & 4 at CMU 48, up 6
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsPunted · 72.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.2%−1.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TOL made the numbers' call on 3 of 3CMU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 11:15CMU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    24.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    24.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 6:25TOL Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:27TOL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 13:31CMU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    29.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    29.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 1:33TOL Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.4%−6.9
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CMUDrive 1TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:4522% → 24%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
77.9%
Ty Brock pass complete to Kobe Lewis for 4 yds to the CMich 29Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+2
77.9%
Kobe Lewis run for 2 yds to the CMich 31Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+19
77.9%
Ty Brock pass complete to Drayton Law for 19 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
50
+6
77.9%
Ty Brock run for 6 yds to the Toled 44Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 44
+2
77.9%
Daedae Hill run for 2 yds to the Toled 42Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 42
+12
77.9%
Lew Nichols III run for 12 yds to the Toled 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+12
77.9%
Kalil Pimpleton pass complete to JaCorey Sullivan for 12 yds to the Toled 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:15
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+18
75.6%
Kalil Pimpleton pass complete to Kobe Lewis for 18 yds for a TD (Marshall Meeder KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0076% → 76%
Q1 11:12
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
76.0%
Bryant Koback run for 4 yds to the Toled 39Similar
Q1 11:12
2ND & 6
OWN 39
0
76.2%
Carter Bradley pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:12
3RD & 6
OWN 39
0
76.0%
Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Bryant KobackSimilar
Q1 11:12
4TH & 6
OWN 39
-5
75.9%
Bailey Flint punt for 53 yds , Kalil Pimpleton returns for a loss of 5 yards to the CMich 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0024% → 24%
Q1 10:32
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+2
75.6%
Kobe Lewis run for 2 yds to the CMich 5Similar
Q1 10:32
2ND & 8
OWN 5
+2
75.6%
Kobe Lewis run for 2 yds to the CMich 7Similar
Q1 10:32
3RD & 6
OWN 7
+1
75.7%
Kobe Lewis run for 1 yd to the CMich 8Similar
Q1 10:32
4TH & 5
OWN 8
0
75.8%
Luke Elzinga punt for 37 yds, downed at the CMich 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 4TD
7 plays · 45 yds · 2:2375% → 77%
Q1 8:48
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+4
75.0%
Bryant Koback run for 4 yds to the CMich 41Similar
Q1 8:48
2ND & 6
OPP 41
+1
75.0%
Bryant Koback run for 1 yd to the CMich 40Similar
Q1 8:48
3RD & 5
OPP 40
+10
75.0%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Danzel McKinley-Lewis for 10 yds to the CMich 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:48
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-10
75.2%
BRADLEY,Carter pass complete to MADDOX,Devin for loss of 2 yards to the CMU32 (McCOY, Alonzo), PENALTY TOLEDO holding (MITCHELL,Bryce) 10 yards to the CMU40, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 8:48
1ST & 20
OPP 40
+19
74.8%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Devin Maddox for 19 yds to the CMich 21Similar
Q1 8:48
2ND & 1
OPP 21
+6
75.2%
Bryant Koback run for 6 yds to the CMich 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:25
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
76.5%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Bryant Koback for 15 yds for a TD (Thomas Cluckey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 0:0025% → 24%
Q1 6:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
75.5%
Lew Nichols III run for a loss of 3 yards to the CMich 22Similar
Q1 6:25
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+3
75.6%
Lew Nichols III run for 3 yds to the CMich 25Similar
Q1 6:25
3RD & 10
OWN 25
-2
75.7%
Ty Brock pass complete to Kalil Pimpleton for a loss of 2 yards to the CMich 23Similar
Q1 6:25
4TH & 12
OWN 23
0
76.0%
Luke Elzinga punt for 40 yds, downed at the Toled 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 6FG
10 plays · 57 yds · 3:2975% → 75%
Q1 4:33
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
75.4%
Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Bryant KobackSimilar
Q1 4:33
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+23
75.3%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Jamal Turner for 23 yds to the CMich 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:33
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+20
76.0%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Jerjuan Newton for 20 yds to the CMich 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:33
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+3
76.2%
Bryant Koback run for 3 yds to the CMich 17Similar
Q1 4:33
2ND & 7
OPP 17
+2
76.2%
Bryant Koback run for 2 yds to the CMich 15Similar
Q1 4:33
3RD & 5
OPP 15
+9
75.9%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Bryant Koback for 9 yds to the CMich 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
76.2%
Bryant Koback run for 2 yds to the CMich 4Similar
Q1 4:33
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
-2
76.2%
Bryant Koback run for a loss of 2 yards to the CMich 6Similar
Q1 4:33
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
75.9%
Carter Bradley pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:04
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+24
75.3%
Thomas Cluckey 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:0425% → 24%
Q1 1:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
75.2%
Darius Bracy run for 3 yds to the CMich 28Similar
Q1 1:04
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+3
75.1%
Darius Bracy run for 3 yds to the CMich 31Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
75.1%
Ty Brock pass incomplete to Drayton Law, broken up by Justin ClarkSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 4
OWN 31
+3
75.6%
Luke Elzinga punt for 53 yds , Ronnie Blackmon returns for 3 yds to the Toled 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0075% → 74%
Q2 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
74.7%
Micah Kelly run for no gain to the Toled 19Similar
Q2 14:48
2ND & 10
OWN 19
0
74.6%
Carter Bradley pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:48
3RD & 10
OWN 19
0
74.1%
Carter Bradley pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:48
4TH & 10
OWN 19
0
73.8%
Bailey Flint punt for 23 yds, downed at the Toled 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 9FG
9 plays · 37 yds · 3:2327% → 30%
Q2 14:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-5
73.5%
BROCK, Ty pass incomplete to BUCZKOWSKI, H. (BOLDEN,Daniel), QB hurry by HINES,Jamal, PENALTY CMU IE (FERRIS, Tyden) 5 yards to the TOLEDO47, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 13:52
1ST & 15
OPP 47
+1
73.5%
Darius Bracy run for 1 yd to the Toled 46Similar
Q2 13:52
2ND & 14
OPP 46
+34
73.8%
Kalil Pimpleton pass complete to Ty Brock for 34 yds to the Toled 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:52
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+5
72.3%
LEWIS, Kobe rush for 5 yards to the TOLEDO7 (HOLT,Saeed), PENALTY TOLEDO 12 men on the field 5 yards to the TOLEDO7, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 13:52
1ST & 5
OPP 7
+3
72.3%
Kobe Lewis run for 3 yds to the Toled 4Similar
Q2 13:52
2ND & 2
OPP 4
+1
72.3%
Ty Brock run for 1 yd to the Toled 3Similar
Q2 13:52
3RD & 1
OPP 3
-2
72.9%
Kobe Lewis run for a loss of 2 yards to the Toled 5Similar
Q2 10:37
4TH & 3
OPP 5
+23
70.1%
Marshall Meeder 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0073% → 72%
Q2 10:32
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
72.6%
Bryant Koback run for 5 yds to the Toled 31Similar
Q2 10:32
2ND & 5
OWN 31
+3
72.7%
Carter Bradley run for 3 yds to the Toled 34Similar
Q2 10:32
3RD & 2
OWN 34
-2
72.6%
Bryant Koback run for a loss of 2 yards to the Toled 32Similar
Q2 10:32
4TH & 4
OWN 32
+18
71.7%
Bailey Flint punt for 37 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the CMich 49 , Kalil Pimpleton returns for 18 yds to the CMich 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0032% → 30%
Q2 8:43
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-1
68.4%
Lew Nichols III run for a loss of 1 yard to the CMich 48Similar
Q2 8:43
2ND & 11
OWN 48
+4
69.2%
Lew Nichols III run for 4 yds to the Toled 48Similar
Q2 8:43
3RD & 7
OPP 48
0
68.6%
Ty Brock pass incomplete to Kalil PimpletonSimilar
Q2 8:43
4TH & 7
OPP 48
0
70.1%
Luke Elzinga punt for 48 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 12INT
3 plays · 47 yds · 0:0071% → 74%
Q2 7:27
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+27
71.4%
Micah Kelly run for 12 yds to the Toled 32 for a 1ST down CENTRAL MICH Penalty, personal foul (Dishon McNary) to the Toled 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:27
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+20
73.2%
Carter Bradley run for 20 yds to the CMich 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:27
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
74.0%
Carter Bradley pass intercepted Lew Nichols III return for no gain to the CMich 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0031% → 30%
Q2 6:22
1ST & 10
OWN 7
0
68.8%
Kobe Lewis run for no gain to the CMich 7Similar
Q2 6:22
2ND & 10
OWN 7
+1
69.1%
Kobe Lewis run for 1 yd to the CMich 8Similar
Q2 6:22
3RD & 9
OWN 8
+3
69.8%
Kobe Lewis run for 3 yds to the CMich 11Similar
Q2 6:22
4TH & 6
OWN 11
+2
70.2%
Luke Elzinga punt for 41 yds , Ronnie Blackmon returns for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 14INT
2 plays · 2 yds · 0:0073% → 73%
Q2 4:32
1ST & 10
50
+2
72.8%
Micah Kelly run for 2 yds to the CMich 48Similar
Q2 4:32
2ND & 8
OPP 48
0
72.9%
Carter Bradley pass intercepted Willie Reid return for no gain to the CMich 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0034% → 33%
Q2 3:51
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+6
66.5%
Kalil Pimpleton run for 6 yds to the CMich 39Similar
Q2 3:51
2ND & 4
OWN 39
+1
65.3%
Darius Bracy run for 1 yd to the CMich 40Similar
Q2 3:51
3RD & 3
OWN 40
0
65.5%
Kalil Pimpleton pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:51
4TH & 3
OWN 40
+9
67.4%
Luke Elzinga punt for 49 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Toled 20 , Ronnie Blackmon returns for 9 yds to the Toled 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 16TD
6 plays · 80 yds · 2:0670% → 80%
Q2 2:33
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+12
69.6%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Drew Rosi for 12 yds to the Toled 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:33
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
70.0%
Bryant Koback run for 3 yds to the Toled 35Similar
Q2 2:33
2ND & 7
OWN 35
+4
70.1%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Devin Maddox for 4 yds to the Toled 39Similar
Q2 2:33
3RD & 3
OWN 39
+6
70.7%
Carter Bradley run for 6 yds to the Toled 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:33
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+42
71.8%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Bryce Mitchell for 42 yds to the CMich 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:27
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
80.4%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Isaiah Winstead for 13 yds for a TD (Thomas Cluckey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 17END OF HALF
3 plays · 12 yds · 0:0023% → 23%
Q2 0:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
77.5%
Kobe Lewis run for 5 yds to the CMich 30Similar
Q2 0:27
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+7
76.8%
Ty Brock run for 7 yds to the CMich 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0079% → 77%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-3
79.1%
Bryant Koback run for a loss of 3 yards to the Toled 32Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 13
OWN 32
+3
78.7%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Bryant Koback for 3 yds to the Toled 35Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 35
0
78.1%
Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Danzel McKinley-Lewis, broken up by Dishon McNarySimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 10
OWN 35
0
77.3%
Bailey Flint punt for 33 yds, downed at the CMich 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 19TD
1 play · 68 yds · 0:0035% → 35%
Q3 13:31
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+68
64.6%
Lew Nichols III run for 68 yds for a TD (Marshall Meeder KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 20PUNT
10 plays · 24 yds · 0:0069% → 68%
Q3 13:27
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+4
69.2%
Bryant Koback run for 4 yds to the Toled 37Similar
Q3 13:27
2ND & 6
OWN 37
+6
70.5%
Carter Bradley run for 6 yds to the Toled 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:27
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-1
71.0%
Bryant Koback run for a loss of 1 yard to the Toled 42Similar
Q3 13:27
2ND & 11
OWN 42
+4
69.9%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Bryant Koback for 4 yds to the Toled 46Similar
Q3 13:27
3RD & 7
OWN 46
+18
69.8%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Isaiah Winstead for 18 yds to the CMich 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:27
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+3
71.8%
Dequan Finn run for 3 yds to the CMich 33Similar
Q3 13:27
2ND & 7
OPP 33
-10
72.4%
Carter Bradley sacked by Amir Siddiq for a loss of 10 yards to the CMich 43Similar
Q3 13:27
3RD & 17
OPP 43
0
69.2%
Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Bryant KobackSimilar
Q3 13:27
4TH & 17
OPP 43
0
67.5%
Bailey Flint punt for 32 yds , Kalil Pimpleton returns for no gain to the CMich 13 Kalil Pimpleton fumbled, recovered by CMich Kalil PimpletonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 21FG
10 plays · 52 yds · 3:2436% → 44%
Q3 9:13
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
64.2%
Ty Brock pass incomplete to Kalil Pimpleton, broken up by Chris McDonaldSimilar
Q3 9:13
2ND & 10
OWN 13
+10
64.5%
Ty Brock pass complete to Kalil Pimpleton for 10 yds to the CMich 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:13
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+5
64.0%
Kobe Lewis run for 5 yds to the CMich 28Similar
Q3 9:13
2ND & 5
OWN 28
+28
63.2%
Ty Brock pass complete to Kalil Pimpleton for 28 yds to the Toled 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:13
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
60.4%
Ty Brock pass incomplete to Kobe LewisSimilar
Q3 9:13
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+10
60.5%
Lew Nichols III run for 10 yds to the Toled 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:13
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+5
59.3%
Ty Brock pass complete to Hunter Buczkowski for 5 yds to the Toled 29Similar
Q3 9:13
2ND & 5
OPP 29
-6
58.9%
Ty Brock sacked by Tycen Anderson for a loss of 6 yards to the Toled 35Similar
Q3 9:13
3RD & 11
OPP 35
0
61.6%
Kalil Pimpleton pass incomplete to Oakley LavalliiSimilar
Q3 5:49
4TH & 11
OPP 35
+53
55.7%
Marshall Meeder 53 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 22INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0058% → 58%
Q3 5:49
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-5
57.6%
Carter Bradley pass intercepted Dishon McNary return for 5 yds to the CMich 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 23FG
7 plays · 41 yds · 2:3746% → 58%
Q3 5:39
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+25
54.3%
Ty Brock pass complete to Hunter Buczkowski for 25 yds to the Toled 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:39
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
51.3%
Lew Nichols III run for 2 yds to the Toled 43Similar
Q3 5:39
2ND & 8
OPP 43
+8
51.4%
Kobe Lewis run for 8 yds to the Toled 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:39
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+4
50.1%
Ty Brock pass complete to Kobe Lewis for 4 yds to the Toled 31Similar
Q3 5:39
2ND & 6
OPP 31
0
49.6%
Ty Brock pass incomplete to Adam JonesSimilar
Q3 5:39
3RD & 6
OPP 31
+2
51.8%
Ty Brock run for 2 yds to the Toled 29Similar
Q3 3:02
4TH & 4
OPP 29
+47
42.0%
Marshall Meeder 47 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 24PUNT
5 plays · -9 yds · 0:0047% → 44%
Q3 2:58
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
47.4%
Micah Kelly run for no gain to the Toled 30Similar
Q3 2:58
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+2
46.8%
Micah Kelly run for 2 yds to the Toled 32Similar
Q3 2:58
3RD & 8
OWN 32
-11
45.9%
Carter Bradley sacked by Troy Hairston II for a loss of 11 yards to the Toled 21 TOLEDO Penalty, intentional grounding (Carter Bradley) to the Toled 21Similar
Q3 2:58
4TH & 19
OWN 21
0
43.9%
Bailey Flint punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Kalil Pimpleton at the CMich 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 25PUNT
6 plays · 18 yds · 1:2062% → 62%
Q3 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+8
38.1%
Ty Brock pass complete to JaCorey Sullivan for 8 yds to the CMich 44Similar
Q3 1:20
2ND & 2
OWN 44
+5
36.9%
Kobe Lewis run for 5 yds to the CMich 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
36.6%
Ty Brock pass incomplete to Kalil Pimpleton, broken up by Tycen AndersonSimilar
Q3 1:20
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+5
36.6%
Kobe Lewis run for 5 yds to the Toled 46Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 46
0
35.6%
Ty Brock pass incomplete to JaCorey Sullivan, broken up by Terrance TaylorSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 5
OPP 46
+43
37.7%
Luke Elzinga punt for 41 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Toled 5 TOLEDO Penalty, Offensive holding (Terrance Taylor) to the Toled 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 26FUMBLE
8 plays · 63 yds · 0:0044% → 45%
Q4 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+10
43.5%
Bryant Koback run for 10 yds to the Toled 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
44.0%
Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Bryant KobackSimilar
Q4 14:49
2ND & 10
OWN 13
+9
43.8%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Isaiah Winstead for 9 yds to the Toled 22Similar
Q4 14:49
3RD & 1
OWN 22
+6
43.3%
Bryant Koback run for 6 yds to the Toled 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+39
44.8%
Bryant Koback run for 24 yds to the TOLEDO 48 for a 1ST down CENTRAL MICH Penalty, personal foul (Willie Reid) to the CMich 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:49
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+1
51.7%
Micah Kelly run for 1 yd to the CMich 32Similar
Q4 14:49
2ND & 9
OPP 32
-8
51.6%
Carter Bradley sacked by George Douglas for a loss of 8 yards to the CMich 40Similar
Q4 14:49
3RD & 17
OPP 40
+3
45.4%
Carter Bradley run for 3 yds to the CMich 34 Carter Bradley fumbled, forced by George Douglas, recovered by CMich Dishon McNarySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 27PUNT
7 plays · 14 yds · 0:0067% → 64%
Q4 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
32.8%
Ty Brock pass incomplete to Amir SiddiqSimilar
Q4 11:45
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+5
33.4%
Kobe Lewis run for 5 yds to the CMich 39Similar
Q4 11:45
3RD & 5
OWN 39
+11
31.3%
Kobe Lewis run for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:45
1ST & 10
50
-4
29.7%
Kalil Pimpleton run for a loss of 4 yards to the CMich 46Similar
Q4 11:45
2ND & 14
OWN 46
+1
32.7%
Kobe Lewis run for 1 yd to the CMich 47Similar
Q4 11:45
3RD & 13
OWN 47
+1
33.1%
Kobe Lewis run for 1 yd to the CMich 48Similar
Q4 11:45
4TH & 12
OWN 48
0
35.7%
Luke Elzinga punt for 28 yds, downed at the Toled 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 28PUNT
4 plays · -7 yds · 0:0037% → 33%
Q4 8:55
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+2
36.5%
Bryant Koback run for 2 yds to the Toled 26Similar
Q4 8:55
2ND & 8
OWN 26
0
36.8%
Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Isaiah WinsteadSimilar
Q4 8:55
3RD & 8
OWN 26
-9
34.3%
Carter Bradley sacked by Troy Brown for a loss of 9 yards to the Toled 17Similar
Q4 8:55
4TH & 17
OWN 17
+1
32.6%
Bailey Flint punt for 42 yds , Kalil Pimpleton returns for 1 yd to the CMich 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 29PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0075% → 73%
Q4 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
24.9%
Lew Nichols III run for 2 yds to the CMich 44Similar
Q4 7:45
2ND & 8
OWN 44
0
24.9%
Ty Brock pass incomplete to JaCorey Sullivan, broken up by D'Andre RaginSimilar
Q4 7:45
3RD & 8
OWN 44
+4
25.6%
Lew Nichols III run for 4 yds to the CMich 48Similar
Q4 7:45
4TH & 4
OWN 48
0
27.3%
Luke Elzinga punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Ronnie Blackmon at the Toled 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 30TD
11 plays · 83 yds · 4:5431% → 77%
Q4 6:27
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-4
31.4%
Carter Bradley sacked by Troy Hairston II for a loss of 4 yards to the Toled 13Similar
Q4 6:27
2ND & 14
OWN 13
+18
30.6%
Bryant Koback run for 18 yds to the Toled 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:27
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+15
32.2%
Bryant Koback run for 15 yds to the Toled 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:27
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
35.7%
Bryant Koback run for 2 yds to the Toled 48Similar
Q4 6:27
2ND & 8
OWN 48
+20
36.1%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Jerjuan Newton for 20 yds to the CMich 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:27
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
39.9%
Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Isaiah WinsteadSimilar
Q4 6:27
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+3
39.7%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Drew Rosi for 3 yds to the CMich 29Similar
Q4 6:27
3RD & 7
OPP 29
+13
37.1%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Bryant Koback for 13 yds to the CMich 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:27
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
39.9%
Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Devin Maddox, broken up by Troy BrownSimilar
Q4 6:27
2ND & 10
OPP 16
-12
39.9%
Carter Bradley sacked by Troy Brown for a loss of 12 yards to the CMich 28Similar
Q4 1:33
3RD & 22
OPP 28
+28
77.1%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Jerjuan Newton for 28 yds for a TD (Thomas Cluckey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 31FUMBLE
4 plays · 16 yds · 0:0032% → 35%
Q4 1:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
67.8%
Ty Brock run for 17 yds to the CMich 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:33
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
63.7%
Ty Brock pass incomplete to Lew Nichols IIISimilar
Q4 1:33
2ND & 10
OWN 42
-7
64.8%
Ty Brock sacked by Terrance Taylor for a loss of 7 yards to the CMich 41 Ty Brock fumbled, recovered by Toled Jamal Hines , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 32END OF GAME
6 plays · 16 yds · 0:0881% → 85%
Q4 1:11
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-4
81.0%
Bryant Koback run for a loss of 4 yards to the CMich 45Similar
Q4 1:07
2ND & 14
OPP 45
-3
80.8%
Bryant Koback run for a loss of 3 yards to the CMich 48Similar
Q4 1:03
3RD & 17
OPP 48
+27
78.7%
Bryant Koback run for 27 yds to the CMich 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:03
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-4
84.7%
Team run for a loss of 4 yards to the CMich 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 1:33
Carter Bradley pass complete to Jerjuan Newton for 28 yds for a TD (Thomas Cluckey KICK)
+37.2
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+15.3
TD · Q3 13:31
Lew Nichols III run for 68 yds for a TD (Marshall Meeder KICK)
-12.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com