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TOL

Toledo 41 at Northern Illinois 24

NIU
2020 · Week 14 · Dec 5, 2020 · Huskie Stadium
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Win probability · NIU
modelNIU aheadTOL aheadconfidence bandkey playNIU scoreTOL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDFGFGFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 12:57 · Matt Ference punt for 51 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Toled 14 , Ronnie Blackmon returns for no gain to the Toled 14 Ronnie Blackmon fumbled,
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+51.0+25.50−25.5−51.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 117Pregame prior−12.9Home team on offense+0.5Score differential−0.8Garbage-time factor−0.8Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 8:59: Ross Bowers pass complete to Tyrice Richie for 26 yds for a TD (John Richardson KICK) — NIU win probability +7.4 pts (now 46%) (top driver: NIU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 7:41: Carter Bradley pass complete to Bryce Mitchell for 44 yds for a TD (Thomas Cluckey KICK) — TOL win probability +12.3 pts (now 66%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  3. FG · Q2 0:17: John Richardson 29 yd FG GOOD — NIU win probability +6.4 pts (now 41%) (top driver: NIU has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 11:31: Thomas Cluckey 22 yd FG GOOD — TOL win probability +7.1 pts (now 66%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 4:48: Carter Bradley pass complete to Ronnie Blackmon for 15 yds for a TD (Thomas Cluckey KICK) — TOL win probability +17.7 pts (now 92%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NIU made the numbers' call on 7 of 8TOL made the numbers' call on 4 of 6
  1. Q1 15:00NIU 4th & 4 at NIU 43, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.9%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.9%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:56TOL 4th & 2 at NIU 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 70.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    70.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    70.8%−0.1
    60% to make
    Punt
    70.4%−0.4
    average punt
  3. Q2 7:41TOL 4th & 7 at NIU 44, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 53.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    53.3%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    52.1%−1.1
    27% to make
    Punt
    53.1%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q2 1:45TOL 4th & 7 at NIU 7, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 63.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.5%−0.6
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    62.1%
    91% to make
    Punt
    56.0%−6.0
    average punt
  5. Q2 0:17NIU 4th & 10 at TOL 11, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 37.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.5%−2.1
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    37.6%
    87% to make
    Punt
    31.5%−6.1
    average punt
  6. Q3 12:57NIU 4th & 18 at NIU 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.3%−3.7
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.1%
    average punt
  7. Q3 12:57TOL 4th & 5 at NIU 38, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 60.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    61.2%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    59.9%−1.4
    38% to make
    Punt
    59.8%−1.4
    average punt
  8. Q3 3:13TOL 4th & 12 at NIU 20, tied
    Numbers favored field goal by 3.8 ptsWent for it · 54.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    51.0%−3.8
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    54.8%
    75% to make
    Punt
    41.1%−13.6
    average punt
  9. Q3 3:09NIU 4th & 8 at NIU 22, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.8%−2.9
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.7%
    average punt
  10. Q4 11:31TOL 4th & 3 at NIU 4, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.9 ptsKicked a field goal · 55.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.4%
    45% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    52.5%−2.9
    93% to make
    Punt
    33.5%−21.9
    average punt
  11. Q4 11:25NIU 4th & 7 at NIU 39, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.5%−0.4
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.0%
    average punt
  12. Q4 4:41NIU 4th & 7 at NIU 20, down 10
    Close callWent for it · 8.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.0%−0.3
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    9.3%
    average punt
  13. Q4 1:55NIU 4th & 3 at NIU 32, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.0%−0.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 0:31NIU 4th & 19 at TOL 28, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 2.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.0%−0.2
    11% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    2.2%
    60% to make
    Punt
    1.8%−0.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NIU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3TOL made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 7:33TOL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 5:04NIU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    32.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    32.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 14:49NIU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    39.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 10:47TOL Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 8:59NIU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    44.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 7:41TOL Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 4:48TOL Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.8%−0.8
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 2:01TOL Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NIUDrive 1PUNT
9 plays · 18 yds · 0:0025% → 25%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
24.7%
Ross Bowers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+9
24.7%
Harrison Waylee run for 9 yds to the NoIll 34Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+3
24.7%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Tyrice Richie for 3 yds to the NoIll 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-5
24.7%
NORTHERNIL Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the NoIll 32Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 15
OWN 32
0
24.7%
Ross Bowers pass incomplete to Tyrice RichieSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 15
OWN 32
+11
24.7%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Harrison Waylee for 11 yds to the NoIll 43Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 43
0
24.7%
Harrison Waylee run for no gain to the NoIll 43Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 4
OWN 43
+9
24.7%
Matt Ference punt for 36 yds , Ronnie Blackmon returns for 9 yds to the NORTHERNIL 48 TOLEDO Penalty, Offensive holding (10 Yards) to the Toled 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 2TD
12 plays · 80 yds · 4:2374% → 75%
Q1 11:56
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
26.2%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Isaiah Winstead for 7 yds to the Toled 27Similar
Q1 11:56
2ND & 3
OWN 27
-5
26.1%
TOLEDO Penalty, false start (Isaiah Winstead) to the Toled 22Similar
Q1 11:56
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+15
26.2%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Danzel McKinley-Lewis for 15 yds to the Toled 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:56
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+11
26.1%
Carter Bradley run for 11 yds to the Toled 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:56
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+16
25.9%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Isaiah Winstead for 16 yds to the NoIll 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:56
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
25.9%
Carter Bradley pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:56
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+7
25.9%
Bryant Koback run for 7 yds to the NoIll 29Similar
Q1 11:56
3RD & 3
OPP 29
+1
25.9%
Bryant Koback run for 1 yd to the NoIll 28Similar
Q1 11:56
4TH & 2
OPP 28
+12
26.0%
Bryant Koback run for 12 yds to the NoIll 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:56
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-5
25.8%
TOLEDO Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the NoIll 21Similar
Q1 11:56
1ST & 15
OPP 21
0
25.8%
Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Isaiah Winstead, broken up by CJ BrownSimilar
Q1 7:33
2ND & 15
OPP 21
+21
25.2%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Danzel McKinley-Lewis for 21 yds for a TD (Thomas Cluckey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 3TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 2:2426% → 31%
Q1 7:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
26.0%
Harrison Waylee run for no gain to the NoIll 25Similar
Q1 7:28
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+36
26.0%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Trayvon Rudolph for 36 yds to the Toled 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:28
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+8
26.7%
Harrison Waylee run for 8 yds to the Toled 31Similar
Q1 7:28
2ND & 2
OPP 31
+3
27.0%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Daniel Crawford for 3 yds to the Toled 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:04
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+28
30.7%
Harrison Waylee run for 28 yds for a TD (John Richardson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 4INT
8 plays · 42 yds · 0:0071% → 71%
Q1 4:59
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+7
29.2%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Isaiah Winstead for 7 yds to the Toled 40Similar
Q1 4:59
2ND & 3
OWN 40
0
28.8%
Carter Bradley pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:59
3RD & 3
OWN 40
+8
28.9%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Drew Rosi for 8 yds to the Toled 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:59
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
28.7%
Bryant Koback run for no gain to the Toled 48Similar
Q1 4:59
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+27
28.8%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Drew Rosi for 27 yds to the NoIll 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 5TD
8 plays · 78 yds · 3:1530% → 38%
Q1 3:04
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+8
30.3%
Harrison Waylee run for 8 yds to the NoIll 30Similar
Q1 3:04
2ND & 2
OWN 30
+10
30.9%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Tyrice Richie for 10 yds to the NoIll 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:04
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+43
31.1%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Tyrice Richie for 43 yds to the Toled 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:04
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+3
31.9%
Harrison Waylee run for 3 yds to the Toled 14Similar
Q1 3:04
2ND & 7
OPP 14
+12
31.9%
BOWERS, Ross pass incomplete to RICHIE, Tyrice, PENALTY TOLEDO pass interference (CLARK,Justin) 12 yards to the TOLEDO2, 1ST DOWN NIU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-3
31.9%
Dustin Fletcher run for a loss of 3 yards to the Toled 5Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
34.1%
Ross Bowers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:49
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
38.2%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Daniel Crawford for 5 yds for a TD (John Richardson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 6TD
12 plays · 98 yds · 4:0263% → 70%
Q2 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+20
37.0%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Isaiah Winstead for 20 yds to the Toled 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+17
36.7%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Jamal Turner for 17 yds to the Toled 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+10
35.8%
Carter Bradley run for 10 yds to the Toled 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+3
35.3%
Micah Kelly run for 3 yds to the NoIll 48Similar
Q2 14:49
2ND & 7
OPP 48
+11
35.1%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Isaiah Winstead for 11 yds to the NoIll 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:49
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+32
35.1%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Bryce Mitchell for 32 yds to the NoIll 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
34.2%
Micah Kelly run for 2 yds to the NoIll 3Similar
Q2 14:49
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
34.2%
Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Ronnie BlackmonSimilar
Q2 14:49
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
35.0%
BRADLEY,Carter pass incomplete to KELLY,Micah, PENALTY NIU holding (THOMAS, Dillon) 2 yards to the NIU1, 1ST DOWN TOLEDO, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
34.2%
Bryant Koback run for no gain to the NoIll 1Similar
Q2 10:47
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
30.4%
Bryant Koback run for 1 yd for a TD (Thomas Cluckey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 7TD
8 plays · 50 yds · 1:3937% → 46%
Q2 10:38
1ST & 10
50
+3
36.5%
Harrison Waylee run for 3 yds to the Toled 47Similar
Q2 10:38
2ND & 7
OPP 47
0
36.6%
Ross Bowers pass incomplete to Trayvon RudolphSimilar
Q2 10:38
3RD & 7
OPP 47
0
35.8%
Ross Bowers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:50
4TH & 7
OPP 47
+15
35.3%
BOWERS, Ross pass incomplete to PUGH, Kyle, PENALTY TOLEDO pass interference (CLARK,Justin) 15 yards to the TOLEDO32, 1ST DOWN NIU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:50
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+6
38.0%
Harrison Waylee run for 6 yds to the Toled 26Similar
Q2 8:59
2ND & 4
OPP 26
+26
45.5%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Tyrice Richie for 26 yds for a TD (John Richardson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 8TD
7 plays · 66 yds · 1:1157% → 66%
Q2 8:52
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+19
42.8%
Bryant Koback run for 19 yds to the NoIll 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:52
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
41.2%
Bryant Koback run for 3 yds to the NoIll 44Similar
Q2 8:52
2ND & 7
OPP 44
0
41.3%
Carter Bradley pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:52
3RD & 7
OPP 44
0
41.6%
Carter Bradley pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:41
4TH & 7
OPP 44
+44
34.1%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Bryce Mitchell for 44 yds for a TD (Thomas Cluckey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 9FUMBLE
13 plays · 46 yds · 0:0037% → 39%
Q2 7:31
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+8
36.9%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Daniel Crawford for 8 yds to the NoIll 29Similar
Q2 7:31
2ND & 2
OWN 29
+8
38.1%
Harrison Waylee run for 8 yds to the NoIll 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:31
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-10
37.7%
WAYLEE, Harriso rush for 7 yards to the NIU44 (HOLT,Saeed), PENALTY NIU holding (POTTER, Nolan) 10 yards to the NIU27, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:31
1ST & 20
OWN 27
+8
36.9%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Tyrice Richie for 8 yds to the NoIll 35Similar
Q2 7:31
2ND & 12
OWN 35
0
36.9%
Ross Bowers pass incomplete to Tyrice RichieSimilar
Q2 7:31
3RD & 12
OWN 35
+15
36.0%
BOWERS, Ross pass incomplete to CRAWFORD, Danie, PENALTY TOLEDO roughing passer (RAGIN,D'Andre) 15 yards to the 50 yardline, 1ST DOWN NIU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:31
1ST & 10
50
-1
39.1%
Harrison Waylee run for 9 yds to the NORTHERNIL 41 NORTHERNIL Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the NoIll 49Similar
Q2 7:31
1ST & 11
OWN 49
+13
38.8%
Dustin Fletcher run for 13 yds to the Toled 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:31
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-2
39.3%
Harrison Waylee run for a loss of 2 yards to the Toled 40Similar
Q2 7:31
2ND & 12
OPP 40
+9
38.8%
Dustin Fletcher run for 9 yds to the Toled 31Similar
Q2 7:31
3RD & 3
OPP 31
-1
39.1%
Dustin Fletcher run for a loss of 1 yard to the Toled 33 Dustin Fletcher fumbled, forced by Dyontae Johnson, recovered by Toled David HoodSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 10FG
7 plays · 60 yds · 1:0965% → 70%
Q2 2:54
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+17
35.4%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Danzel McKinley-Lewis for 17 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:54
1ST & 10
50
+43
33.1%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Danzel McKinley-Lewis for 43 yds to the NoIll 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
31.6%
Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Isaiah WinsteadSimilar
Q2 2:54
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
31.6%
Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Isaiah Winstead, broken up by Eddie JacksonSimilar
Q2 1:54
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
0
31.8%
Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Jamal TurnerSimilar
Q2 1:45
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+25
30.4%
Thomas Cluckey 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 11FG
12 plays · 54 yds · 1:2831% → 41%
Q2 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+19
31.2%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Daniel Crawford for 19 yds to the Toled 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:45
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+10
34.2%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Tyrice Richie for 10 yds to the Toled 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:45
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+10
34.2%
BOWERS, Ross pass incomplete to CRAWFORD, Danie, PENALTY TOLEDO holding (JOHNSON,Dyontae) 10 yards to the TOLEDO26, 1ST DOWN NIU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:45
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+4
35.6%
Harrison Waylee run for 4 yds to the Toled 22Similar
Q2 0:59
2ND & 6
OPP 22
0
36.2%
Ross Bowers pass incomplete to Tyrice RichieSimilar
Q2 0:59
3RD & 6
OPP 22
+11
34.6%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Harrison Waylee for 11 yds to the Toled 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:59
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
36.2%
Ross Bowers pass incomplete to Tyrice RichieSimilar
Q2 0:59
2ND & 10
OPP 11
0
36.2%
Ross Bowers pass incomplete to Daniel Crawford, broken up by Tycen AndersonSimilar
Q2 0:59
3RD & 10
OPP 11
0
34.5%
Ross Bowers pass incomplete to Trayvon Rudolph, broken up by Chris McDonaldSimilar
Q2 0:17
4TH & 10
OPP 11
+29
40.9%
John Richardson 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 12END OF HALF
2 plays · 3 yds · 0:0063% → 63%
Q2 0:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
37.5%
Micah Kelly run for 3 yds to the Toled 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 13INT
6 plays · 35 yds · 0:0063% → 66%
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+12
37.2%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Danzel McKinley-Lewis for 12 yds to the Toled 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
36.9%
Bryant Koback run for 2 yds to the Toled 32Similar
Q3 14:56
2ND & 8
OWN 32
+17
36.6%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Devin Maddox for 2 yds to the Toled 34 for a 1ST down NORTHERNIL Penalty, personal foul (Daveren Rayner) to the Toled 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
34.6%
Carter Bradley run for 4 yds to the NoIll 47Similar
Q3 14:56
2ND & 6
OPP 47
+6
34.3%
Carter Bradley pass intercepted Devin Lafayette return for a loss of 6 yards to the NoIll 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 14PUNT
7 plays · 16 yds · 0:0042% → 39%
Q3 12:57
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
41.7%
Ross Bowers pass incomplete to Daniel CrawfordSimilar
Q3 12:57
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+13
41.6%
Harrison Waylee run for 13 yds to the NoIll 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:57
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+11
42.2%
Harrison Waylee run for 11 yds to the NoIll 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:57
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
44.4%
Ross Bowers pass incomplete to Harrison WayleeSimilar
Q3 12:57
2ND & 10
OWN 43
-8
43.5%
Ross Bowers sacked by Zachary Ford for a loss of 8 yards to the NoIll 35Similar
Q3 12:57
3RD & 18
OWN 35
0
40.1%
Ross Bowers pass incomplete to Dennis RobinsonSimilar
Q3 12:57
4TH & 18
OWN 35
0
39.4%
Matt Ference punt for 51 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Toled 14 , Ronnie Blackmon returns for no gain to the Toled 14 Ronnie Blackmon fumbled,Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 15DOWNS
17 plays · 66 yds · 9:4462% → 56%
Q3 12:57
1ST & 10
OWN 14
-1
38.4%
Bryant Koback run for a loss of 1 yard to the Toled 13Similar
Q3 12:57
2ND & 11
OWN 13
+17
38.7%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Isaiah Winstead for 17 yds to the Toled 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:57
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
37.9%
Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Isaiah WinsteadSimilar
Q3 12:57
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+16
38.3%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Isaiah Winstead for 16 yds to the Toled 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:57
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+7
35.6%
Bryant Koback run for 7 yds to the NoIll 47Similar
Q3 12:57
2ND & 3
OPP 47
+4
34.8%
Bryant Koback run for 4 yds to the NoIll 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:57
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-1
35.1%
Bryant Koback run for a loss of 1 yard to the NoIll 44Similar
Q3 12:57
2ND & 11
OPP 44
+4
35.6%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Micah Kelly for 4 yds to the NoIll 40Similar
Q3 12:57
3RD & 7
OPP 40
+2
35.6%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Danzel McKinley-Lewis for 2 yds to the NoIll 38Similar
Q3 12:57
4TH & 5
OPP 38
+10
37.1%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Jamal Turner for 10 yds to the NoIll 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:57
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
34.0%
Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Jamal TurnerSimilar
Q3 12:57
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+10
34.4%
Micah Kelly run for 10 yds to the NoIll 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:57
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-14
34.0%
Micah Kelly run for 1 yd to the NoIll 17 TOLEDO Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Bryce Mitchell) to the NoIll 32Similar
Q3 12:57
2ND & 24
OPP 32
+8
35.7%
Micah Kelly run for 8 yds to the NoIll 24Similar
Q3 12:57
3RD & 16
OPP 24
+4
36.9%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Micah Kelly for 4 yds to the NoIll 20Similar
Q3 3:13
4TH & 12
OPP 20
0
44.2%
Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Danzel McKinley-Lewis, broken up by Dillon ThomasSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0048% → 46%
Q3 3:09
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
48.4%
Harrison Waylee run for 2 yds to the NoIll 22Similar
Q3 3:09
2ND & 8
OWN 22
0
48.3%
Harrison Waylee run for no gain to the NoIll 22Similar
Q3 3:09
3RD & 8
OWN 22
0
46.6%
Ross Bowers run for no gain to the NoIll 22Similar
Q3 3:09
4TH & 8
OWN 22
0
45.6%
Matt Ference punt for 33 yds, downed at the Toled 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 17FG
11 plays · 51 yds · 4:3959% → 66%
Q3 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+7
41.3%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Jerjuan Newton for 7 yds to the NoIll 48Similar
Q3 1:10
2ND & 3
OPP 48
+2
40.1%
Bryant Koback run for 2 yds to the NoIll 46Similar
Q3 1:10
3RD & 1
OPP 46
+6
40.5%
Bryant Koback run for 6 yds to the NoIll 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+1
40.7%
Bryant Koback run for 1 yd to the NoIll 39Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 39
+11
40.8%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Jerjuan Newton for 11 yds to the NoIll 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+5
39.1%
Carter Bradley run for 5 yds to the NoIll 23Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 23
+12
39.1%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Jerjuan Newton for 12 yds to the NoIll 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+2
39.1%
Bryant Koback run for 2 yds to the NoIll 9Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 9
+5
39.1%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Drew Rosi for 5 yds to the NoIll 4Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 4
0
40.9%
Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Jerjuan Newton, broken up by Daveren RaynerSimilar
Q4 11:31
4TH & 3
OPP 4
+22
33.8%
Thomas Cluckey 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 18PUNT
10 plays · 20 yds · 0:0039% → 39%
Q4 11:25
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+5
39.2%
TOLEDO Penalty, offside defense (Nate Givhan) to the NoIll 24Similar
Q4 11:25
1ST & 5
OWN 24
+1
40.3%
Harrison Waylee run for 1 yd to the NoIll 25Similar
Q4 11:25
2ND & 4
OWN 25
0
40.0%
Ross Bowers pass incomplete to Dennis RobinsonSimilar
Q4 11:25
3RD & 4
OWN 25
+11
38.6%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Tyrice Richie for 11 yds to the NoIll 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:25
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
40.6%
Ross Bowers pass incomplete to Tyrice RichieSimilar
Q4 11:25
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+3
40.3%
Harrison Waylee run for 3 yds to the NoIll 39Similar
Q4 11:25
3RD & 7
OWN 39
-5
39.6%
NORTHERNIL Penalty, false start (Nolan Potter) to the NoIll 34Similar
Q4 11:25
3RD & 12
OWN 34
+5
37.6%
Ross Bowers run for 5 yds to the NoIll 39Similar
Q4 11:25
4TH & 7
OWN 39
0
38.5%
Matt Ference punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Ronnie Blackmon at the Toled 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 19TD
8 plays · 80 yds · 3:2569% → 92%
Q4 8:13
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
31.2%
Micah Kelly run for 4 yds to the Toled 24Similar
Q4 8:13
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+27
30.8%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Isaiah Winstead for 12 yds to the NoIll 36 for a 1ST down NORTHERNIL Penalty, roughing passer (Michael Kennedy) to the NoIll 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:13
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+2
27.2%
Micah Kelly run for 2 yds to the NoIll 47Similar
Q4 8:13
2ND & 8
OPP 47
+18
27.3%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Devin Maddox for 18 yds to the NoIll 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:13
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+14
25.7%
Carter Bradley run for 14 yds to the NoIll 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:13
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-5
25.7%
TOLEDO Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the NoIll 20Similar
Q4 8:13
1ST & 15
OPP 20
+5
25.9%
Micah Kelly run for 5 yds to the NoIll 15Similar
Q4 4:48
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+15
8.2%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Ronnie Blackmon for 15 yds for a TD (Thomas Cluckey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 20DOWNS
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0010% → 9%
Q4 4:41
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-8
9.9%
Ross Bowers sacked by Samuel Womack and David Hood for a loss of 8 yards to the NoIll 9Similar
Q4 4:41
2ND & 18
OWN 9
+11
9.3%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Daniel Crawford for 11 yds to the NoIll 20Similar
Q4 4:41
3RD & 7
OWN 20
0
9.2%
Ross Bowers pass incomplete to Dennis RobinsonSimilar
Q4 4:41
4TH & 7
OWN 20
0
8.6%
Ross Bowers pass incomplete to Tyrice RichieSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 21TD
8 plays · 20 yds · 1:4692% → 99%
Q4 3:47
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-15
8.0%
TOLEDO Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Justin Clark) to the NoIll 35Similar
Q4 3:47
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+5
8.0%
Micah Kelly run for 5 yds to the NoIll 30Similar
Q4 3:43
2ND & 5
OPP 30
+3
7.2%
Dequan Finn run for 3 yds to the NoIll 27Similar
Q4 3:35
3RD & 2
OPP 27
+4
6.6%
Micah Kelly run for 4 yds to the NoIll 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:35
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-2
6.4%
Dequan Finn run for a loss of 2 yards to the NoIll 25Similar
Q4 2:01
2ND & 12
OPP 25
+25
1.4%
Micah Kelly run for 25 yds for a TD (Thomas Cluckey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 22MISSED FG
12 plays · 47 yds · 1:242% → 1%
Q4 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
1.8%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Dennis Robinson for 7 yds to the NoIll 32Similar
Q4 1:55
2ND & 3
OWN 32
0
1.8%
Ross Bowers pass incomplete to Trayvon RudolphSimilar
Q4 1:55
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
1.9%
Ross Bowers pass incomplete to Daniel CrawfordSimilar
Q4 1:55
4TH & 3
OWN 32
+5
1.8%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Dennis Robinson for 5 yds to the NoIll 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+44
1.8%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Mohamed Toure for 44 yds to the NORTHERNIL 19 for a 1ST down TOLEDO Penalty, ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:07
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+2
2.3%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Harrison Waylee for 2 yds to the Toled 17Similar
Q4 1:07
2ND & 8
OPP 17
0
2.3%
Ross Bowers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:07
3RD & 8
OPP 17
-11
2.1%
Ross Bowers sacked by Dyontae Johnson for a loss of 11 yards to the Toled 28Similar
Q4 0:31
4TH & 19
OPP 28
+46
1.0%
John Richardson 46 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 23END OF GAME
1 play · -4 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 0:31
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-4
0.9%
Team run for a loss of 4 yards to the Toled 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 4:48
Carter Bradley pass complete to Ronnie Blackmon for 15 yds for a TD (Thomas Cluckey KICK)
-17.7
TD · Q2 7:41
Carter Bradley pass complete to Bryce Mitchell for 44 yds for a TD (Thomas Cluckey KICK)
-12.3
TD · Q2 8:59
Ross Bowers pass complete to Tyrice Richie for 26 yds for a TD (John Richardson KICK)
+7.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com