2020 · Week 14 · Dec 5, 2020 · Waldo Stadium
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Win probability · WMU
modelWMU aheadEMU aheadconfidence bandkey playWMU scoreEMU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 5:42 · Kaleb Eleby pass complete to Skyy Moore for 5 yds for a TD (Gavin Peddie KICK)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 2:35: Preston Hutchinson pass complete to Quian Williams for 32 yds for a TD (Chad Ryland KICK) — EMU win probability +11.7 pts (now 34%) (top driver: EMU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:49: Preston Hutchinson pass complete to Tanner Knue for 61 yds for a TD (Chad Ryland KICK) — EMU win probability +12.0 pts (now 46%) (top driver: EMU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 5:02: Darius Boone Jr. run for 4 yds for a TD (Chad Ryland KICK) — EMU win probability +20.0 pts (now 62%) (top driver: EMU has the ball).
- TD · Q4 13:50: La'Darius Jefferson run for 3 yds for a TD (Gavin Peddie KICK) — WMU win probability +14.5 pts (now 40%) (top driver: WMU has the ball).
- TD · Q4 9:46: Samson Evans run for 4 yds for a TD (Chad Ryland KICK) — EMU win probability +18.0 pts (now 92%) (top driver: EMU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
WMU made the numbers' call on 1 of 3EMU made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
- Q1 15:00EMU 4th & 10 at EMU 44, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 18.1% before the snapGo for it18.1%−0.129% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call18.2%average punt
- Q1 2:59EMU 4th & 10 at WMU 10, down 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 19.0% before the snapGo for it18.6%−0.324% to convertField goalTheir call18.9%88% to makePunt17.3%−1.6average punt
- Q1 2:47EMU 4th & 1 at WMU 30, down 4Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 21.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call21.1%71% to convertField goal20.5%−0.656% to makePunt20.1%−1.0average punt
- Q2 2:35WMU 4th & 6 at WMU 34, down 2Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.3% before the snapGo for it68.0%−0.340% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call68.3%average punt
- Q3 9:54EMU 4th & 5 at WMU 35, up 2Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 37.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call37.9%42% to convertField goal36.5%−1.445% to makePunt35.0%−2.9average punt
- Q3 4:05EMU 4th & 7 at WMU 28, up 9Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 60.3% before the snapGo for it59.6%−0.437% to convertField goalTheir call60.0%60% to makePunt51.7%−8.3average punt
- Q3 1:25EMU 4th & 7 at WMU 7, up 12Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 74.2% before the snapGo for it72.3%−0.928% to convertField goalTheir call73.2%91% to makePunt61.8%−11.4average punt
- Q4 5:42WMU 4th & 5 at EMU 5, down 15Close callWent for it · 8.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call7.7%−0.233% to convertField goal7.9%92% to makePunt3.5%−4.4average punt
- Q4 1:14EMU 4th & 2 at WMU 2, up 8Numbers favored go for it by 1.0 ptsKicked a field goal · 94.6% before the snapGo for it94.3%48% to convertField goalTheir call93.3%−1.094% to makePunt88.9%−5.4average punt
- Q4 0:10WMU 4th & 7 at EMU 26, down 11Numbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsKicked a field goal · 5.8% before the snapGo for it5.8%36% to convertField goalTheir call4.3%−1.464% to makePunt4.0%−1.7average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WMU made the numbers' call on 4 of 6EMU made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
- Q1 6:09WMU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call81.1%97% to makeGo for two81.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 1:20EMU Touchdown, up 2 before the tryClose callWent for two · failedKick23.7%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call23.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 13:58WMU Touchdown, up 4 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call78.8%97% to makeGo for two78.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 8:53EMU Touchdown, up 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call26.9%97% to makeGo for two26.8%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 8:12WMU Touchdown, up 4 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call77.9%97% to makeGo for two77.8%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 2:35EMU Touchdown, up 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call31.6%97% to makeGo for two31.4%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:49EMU Touchdown, up 8 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call46.2%97% to makeGo for two46.0%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 9:54WMU Touchdown, down 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call62.4%97% to makeGo for two62.2%−0.245% to convert
- Q3 5:02EMU Touchdown, up 8 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call61.9%97% to makeGo for two61.7%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 13:50WMU Touchdown, down 9 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call34.0%−0.197% to makeGo for two34.1%45% to convert
- Q4 9:46EMU Touchdown, up 14 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call89.0%97% to makeGo for two88.4%−0.545% to convert
- Q4 5:42WMU Touchdown, down 9 before the tryNumbers favored go for two by 1.9 ptsKicked · madeKickTheir call13.8%−1.997% to makeGo for two15.8%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartEMUDrive 1PUNT8 plays · 18 yds · 0:0018% → 18%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+9
81.7%
Preston Hutchinson pass complete to Quian Williams for 9 yds to the EMich 35Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 35
+9
81.7%
Preston Hutchinson pass complete to Dylan Drummond for 9 yds to the EMich 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 10
OWN 44
+38
81.7%
Jake Julien punt for 38 yds , Cam Cooper returns for a loss of 1 yard to the WMich 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 2TD13 plays · 83 yds · 6:0781% → 82%
Q1 12:16
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+10
81.0%
La'Darius Jefferson run for 10 yds to the WMich 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:16
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-3
81.1%
Kaleb Eleby pass complete to D'Wayne Eskridge for a loss of 3 yards to the WMich 36Similar
Q1 12:16
2ND & 13
OWN 36
+6
81.0%
D'Wayne Eskridge run for 16 yds to the WESTMICH 48 WESTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, Offensive holding (Skyy Moore) to the WMich 42Similar
Q1 12:16
2ND & 7
OWN 42
+11
81.2%
La'Darius Jefferson run for 11 yds to the EMich 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:16
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+8
81.2%
Kaleb Eleby pass complete to Skyy Moore for 8 yds to the EMich 39Similar
Q1 12:16
2ND & 9
OPP 32
+10
81.3%
Kaleb Eleby pass complete to Jaylen Hall for 10 yds to the EMich 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 3FG9 plays · 65 yds · 3:1019% → 21%
Q1 6:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
81.3%
Preston Hutchinson sacked by Ali Fayad and Corvin Moment for a loss of 1 yard to the EMich 24Similar
Q1 6:09
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+66
81.6%
Preston Hutchinson pass complete to Hassan Beydoun for 66 yds to the WMich 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-5
80.4%
HUTCHINSON, P. pass incomplete to KNUE, Tanner, dropped pass, PENALTY EMU illegal participation 5 yards to the WMU15, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 4FUMBLE3 plays · 13 yds · 0:0079% → 79%
EMUDrive 5TD6 plays · 39 yds · 1:2722% → 25%
Q1 2:47
2ND & 6
OPP 35
0
78.0%
Preston Hutchinson pass incomplete to Dylan Drummond, broken up by Bricen GarnerSimilar
Q1 2:47
3RD & 6
OPP 35
+5
78.5%
WESTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, Defensive offside (5 Yards) to the WMich 30Similar
Q1 1:20
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+28
75.0%
Preston Hutchinson pass complete to Tanner Knue for 28 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 6TD6 plays · 71 yds · 2:2277% → 79%
Q1 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+17
76.9%
La'Darius Jefferson run for 17 yds to the WMich 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 45
-5
77.4%
La'Darius Jefferson run for 5 yds to the WMich 40 WESTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, Offensive holding (D'Wayne Eskridge) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 13:58
3RD & 6
50
+50
78.8%
Kaleb Eleby pass complete to Jaylen Hall for 50 yds for a TD (Gavin Peddie KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 7TD13 plays · 77 yds · 5:0522% → 29%
Q2 13:01
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-10
76.4%
HUTCHINSON, P. rush for 33 yards to the WMU0, clock 13:01, PENALTY EMU holding (ODUKOYA, Thomas) 10 yards to the WMU43, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 13:01
1ST & 20
OPP 43
+4
77.4%
Preston Hutchinson pass complete to Hassan Beydoun for 4 yds to the WMich 39Similar
Q2 13:01
2ND & 16
OPP 39
+5
77.5%
WESTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, Defensive offside (Ralph Holley) to the WMich 34Similar
Q2 13:01
3RD & 11
OPP 34
+18
77.4%
Preston Hutchinson pass complete to Dylan Drummond for 18 yds to the WMich 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:01
3RD & 5
OPP 11
+7
76.7%
Preston Hutchinson pass complete to Samson Evans for 7 yds to the WMich 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 8TD3 plays · 51 yds · 0:4176% → 81%
EMUDrive 9TD14 plays · 88 yds · 5:3720% → 34%
Q2 8:12
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+6
79.9%
Preston Hutchinson pass complete to Dylan Drummond for 6 yds to the EMich 18Similar
Q2 8:12
2ND & 1
OWN 35
+4
78.7%
Preston Hutchinson pass complete to Hassan Beydoun for 4 yds to the EMich 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:12
3RD & 5
OWN 44
+7
78.6%
Preston Hutchinson pass complete to Hassan Beydoun for 7 yds to the WMich 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:12
3RD & 4
OPP 43
+5
78.3%
Preston Hutchinson pass complete to Samson Evans for 5 yds to the WMich 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:12
2ND & 11
OPP 39
+7
78.2%
Preston Hutchinson pass complete to Hassan Beydoun for 7 yds to the WMich 32Similar
Q2 2:35
3RD & 4
OPP 32
+32
66.5%
Preston Hutchinson pass complete to Quian Williams for 32 yds for a TD (Chad Ryland KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 10PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0070% → 69%
Q2 2:35
2ND & 8
OWN 32
+2
70.3%
Kaleb Eleby pass complete to La'Darius Jefferson for 2 yds to the WMich 34Similar
Q2 2:35
3RD & 6
OWN 34
0
69.6%
Kaleb Eleby pass incomplete to D'Wayne Eskridge, broken up by Alvinoski LaFleurSimilar
Q2 2:35
4TH & 6
OWN 34
0
69.3%
Nick Mihalic punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Dylan Drummond at the EMich 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 11TD4 plays · 68 yds · 0:4532% → 46%
WMUDrive 12END OF HALF2 plays · 4 yds · 0:0058% → 58%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 13TD14 plays · 75 yds · 5:0656% → 70%
Q3 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+10
56.8%
La'Darius Jefferson run for 10 yds to the WMich 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+7
57.0%
Kaleb Eleby pass complete to Skyy Moore for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 3
50
-1
58.3%
Kaleb Eleby sacked by Jose Ramirez for a loss of 1 yard to the EMich 48 Kaleb Eleby fumbled, recovered by WMich La'Darius Jefferson , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+5
58.4%
EASTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, Defensive offside (5 Yards) to the EMich 40Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-5
59.7%
ELEBY, Kaleb pass complete to MOORE, Skyy for 8 yards to the EMU27 (SHINE, Kempton), PENALTY WMU illegal participation 5 yards to the EMU40, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 11
OPP 36
+6
58.0%
Kaleb Eleby pass complete to Brett Borske for 6 yds to the EMich 30Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 30
+10
58.2%
La'Darius Jefferson run for 10 yds to the EMich 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
69.6%
Kaleb Eleby pass complete to D'Wayne Eskridge for 7 yds for a TD (Gavin Peddie KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 14TD13 plays · 65 yds · 4:5238% → 62%
Q3 9:54
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+18
60.5%
Preston Hutchinson pass complete to Quian Williams for 18 yds to the WMich 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:54
2ND & 1
OPP 31
-4
58.4%
Preston Hutchinson sacked by Ali Fayad and Kailien Guillory for a loss of 4 yards to the WMich 35Similar
Q3 9:54
3RD & 5
OPP 35
0
60.2%
Preston Hutchinson pass incomplete to Tanner Knue, broken up by Corvin MomentSimilar
Q3 9:54
4TH & 5
OPP 35
+9
62.5%
Preston Hutchinson pass complete to Samson Evans for 9 yds to the WMich 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:54
2ND & 12
OPP 28
+5
58.8%
WESTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, Defensive offside (Ali Fayad) to the WMich 23Similar
Q3 9:54
2ND & 7
OPP 23
-3
58.4%
Preston Hutchinson run for a loss of 3 yards to the WMich 25 Preston Hutchinson fumbled, forced by Andre Carter, recovered by EMich Preston HutchinsonSimilar
Q3 9:54
3RD & 9
OPP 25
+17
60.3%
Preston Hutchinson pass complete to Quian Williams for 17 yds to the WMich 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 16FG4 plays · 3 yds · 0:5162% → 69%
Q3 4:56
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
38.1%
Preston Hutchinson pass incomplete to Hassan Beydoun, broken up by Harrison TaylorSimilar
Q3 4:56
3RD & 7
OPP 28
0
39.2%
Preston Hutchinson pass incomplete to Hassan Beydoun, broken up by Keith Jones Jr. EASTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 17FUMBLE3 plays · -15 yds · 0:0034% → 33%
Q3 4:05
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-10
33.8%
ELEBY, Kaleb pass complete to ESKRIDGE, D. for 7 yards to the WMU42 (SHINE, Kempton), PENALTY WMU holding (TORRES, Anthony) 10 yards to the WMU25, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:05
1ST & 20
OWN 25
-5
33.1%
Kaleb Eleby run for a loss of 5 yards to the WMich 20 Kaleb Eleby fumbled, recovered by EMich Aaron HamiltonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 18FG7 plays · 13 yds · 2:0474% → 81%
WMUDrive 19TD8 plays · 78 yds · 2:3522% → 40%
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+49
23.3%
Kaleb Eleby pass complete to D'Wayne Eskridge for 49 yds to the EMich 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 20TD9 plays · 75 yds · 4:0470% → 92%
Q4 13:50
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+7
25.6%
EVANS, Samson rush for no gain to the WMU14 (GARNER, Bricen), PENALTY WMU personal foul (HAYWARD, T.) 7 yards to the WMU7, 1ST DOWN EMU, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 21TD18 plays · 77 yds · 4:0411% → 20%
Q4 9:46
2ND & 1
OWN 32
-6
11.9%
Kaleb Eleby sacked by Aaron Hamilton for a loss of 6 yards to the WMich 26Similar
Q4 9:46
3RD & 7
OWN 26
+15
10.6%
ELEBY, Kaleb pass incomplete, PENALTY EMU roughing passer (RAMIREZ, Jose) 15 yards to the WMU41, 1ST DOWN WMU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:46
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+10
12.2%
Kaleb Eleby pass complete to Jaylen Hall for 10 yds to the EMich 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:46
1ST & 15
OWN 46
+28
11.4%
Kaleb Eleby pass complete to Skyy Moore for 28 yds to the EMich 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:46
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
14.1%
Kaleb Eleby pass incomplete to Jaylen Hall, broken up by Jose RamirezSimilar
Q4 9:46
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-15
14.1%
WESTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, personal foul (-15 Yards) to the EMich 29Similar
Q4 9:46
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+5
14.1%
Kaleb Eleby pass complete to Jaxson Kincaide for 5 yds to the EMich 24Similar
Q4 9:46
2ND & 5
OPP 24
+18
14.1%
Kaleb Eleby pass complete to Skyy Moore for 18 yds to the EMich 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:26
2ND & 4
OWN 0
0
6.5%
ELEBY, Kaleb rush for 4 yards to the EMU0, clock 06:26, PENALTY EMU substitution infraction off-setting, PENALTY WMU illegal shift off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 6:26
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
9.0%
Kaleb Eleby pass incomplete WESTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, illegal participation ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 5:42
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
19.8%
Kaleb Eleby pass complete to Skyy Moore for 5 yds for a TD (Gavin Peddie KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 22FG15 plays · 37 yds · 4:2890% → 97%
Q4 5:42
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+5
10.4%
BOONE, Darius rush for 2 yards to the WMU37 (HAYWARD, T.), PENALTY WMU offside (CARTER, Andre) 5 yards to the WMU34, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:42
1ST & 5
OPP 34
+4
9.9%
Preston Hutchinson pass complete to Hassan Beydoun for 4 yds to the WMich 30Similar
Q4 2:49
2ND & 2
OPP 17
+12
5.4%
Darius Boone Jr. run for 6 yds to the WMich 11 for a 1ST down WESTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, face mask (6 yards) (Treshaun Hayward) to the WMich 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 23MISSED FG11 plays · 32 yds · 1:043% → 3%
Q4 1:14
1ST & 10
OWN 0
0
2.7%
PENALTY EMU personal foul off-setting, PENALTY WMU unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 1:14
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+6
3.1%
Kaleb Eleby pass complete to Brett Borske for 6 yds to the WMich 48Similar
Q4 1:14
3RD & 4
OWN 48
+23
3.2%
Kaleb Eleby pass complete to Skyy Moore for 23 yds to the EMich 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:29
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+8
4.2%
Kaleb Eleby pass complete to Jaxson Kincaide for 8 yds to the EMich 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 24Uncategorized1 play · -2 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 5:02
Darius Boone Jr. run for 4 yds for a TD (Chad Ryland KICK)
-20
TD · Q4 9:46
Samson Evans run for 4 yds for a TD (Chad Ryland KICK)
-18
TD · Q4 13:50
La'Darius Jefferson run for 3 yds for a TD (Gavin Peddie KICK)
+14.5