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BALL

Ball State 45 at Central Michigan 20

CMU
2020 · Week 14 · Dec 5, 2020 · Kelly/Shorts Stadium
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Win probability · CMU
modelCMU aheadBALL aheadconfidence bandkey playCMU scoreBALL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 13:17 · Luke Elzinga punt for 50 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BalSt 18
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+55.5+27.80−27.8−55.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 60Home team on offense−1.3Score differential−0.4Garbage-time factor−0.4Pregame prior−3.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 4:40: Drew Plitt run for 12 yds for a TD (Jack Knight KICK) — BALL win probability +9.6 pts (now 66%) (top driver: BALL has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:13: Drew Plitt pass complete to Dylan Koch for 5 yds for a TD (Jack Knight KICK) — BALL win probability +11.6 pts (now 82%) (top driver: BALL has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 12:13: Ty Brock run for 82 yds for a TD (Marshall Meeder KICK) — CMU win probability +7.9 pts (now 29%) (top driver: CMU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 5:22: Will Jones run for 9 yds for a TD (Jack Knight KICK) — BALL win probability +11.9 pts (now 88%) (top driver: BALL has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 1:14: Drew Plitt pass complete to Jalen McGaughy for 39 yds for a TD (Jack Knight KICK) — BALL win probability +8.6 pts (now 97%) (top driver: BALL has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CMU made the numbers' call on 7 of 10BALL made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 15:00CMU 4th & 2 at BALL 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 44.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    45.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    44.8%−0.2
    23% to make
    Punt
    44.9%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:24BALL 4th & 5 at CMU 17, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 54.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.0%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    54.1%
    80% to make
    Punt
    53.5%−0.6
    average punt
  3. Q1 10:24CMU 4th & 4 at midfield, down 3
    Close callPunted · 45.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.8%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:42CMU 4th & 1 at CMU 46, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 41.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    41.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    40.9%−0.8
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:53BALL 4th & 1 at CMU 46, up 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.0 ptsPunted · 54.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    52.8%−1.6
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    53.4%−1.0
    average punt
  6. Q2 13:17CMU 4th & 13 at CMU 32, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.6%−1.4
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.0%
    average punt
  7. Q2 11:18BALL 4th & 5 at BALL 23, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.2%−0.6
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.7%
    average punt
  8. Q2 10:05CMU 4th & 16 at CMU 5, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.2%−2.1
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.3%
    average punt
  9. Q2 8:26BALL 4th & 5 at CMU 43, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 54.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    54.7%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    53.5%−1.1
    28% to make
    Punt
    54.3%−0.4
    average punt
  10. Q2 4:40CMU 4th & 20 at CMU 15, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.7%−2.2
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.0%
    average punt
  11. Q3 12:13BALL 4th & 3 at CMU 34, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 68.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    69.1%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    67.6%−1.5
    47% to make
    Punt
    66.9%−2.2
    average punt
  12. Q3 10:20CMU 4th & 5 at CMU 48, down 10
    Close callPunted · 30.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.2%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  13. Q3 9:02BALL 4th & 14 at BALL 43, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.5%−3.1
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.6%
    average punt
  14. Q3 5:22CMU 4th & 11 at CMU 24, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.0%−2.0
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.0%
    average punt
  15. Q4 8:54BALL 4th & 10 at CMU 46, up 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.3%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    99.2%−0.2
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    99.4%
    average punt
  16. Q4 7:54CMU 4th & 1 at CMU 20, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.3%−0.2
    average punt
  17. Q4 7:54CMU 4th & 8 at BALL 37, down 25
    Close callWent for it · 0.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.5%−0.2
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    0.6%
    40% to make
    Punt
    0.4%−0.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CMU made the numbers' call on 2 of 3BALL made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 2:42BALL Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:53CMU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    46.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    46.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 4:40BALL Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:13BALL Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 12:13CMU Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    30.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    30.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 5:22BALL Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 1:14BALL Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 11:38BALL Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.6%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.6%
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 8:54CMU Touchdown, down 25 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    1.2%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    0.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CMUDrive 1DOWNS
10 plays · 28 yds · 0:0045% → 45%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
44.7%
Kobe Lewis run for 11 yds to the CMich 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
44.7%
Ty Brock run for 7 yds to the CMich 43Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 43
-5
44.7%
CENTRAL MICH Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the CMich 38Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+4
44.7%
Lew Nichols III run for 4 yds to the CMich 42Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 42
+4
44.7%
Lew Nichols III run for 4 yds to the CMich 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
44.7%
Ty Brock pass complete to JaCorey Sullivan for 5 yds to the BalSt 49Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 49
+4
44.7%
Darius Bracy run for 4 yds to the BalSt 45Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 45
-1
44.7%
Darius Bracy run for a loss of 1 yard to the BalSt 46Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 2
OPP 46
-1
44.7%
Lew Nichols III run for a loss of 1 yard to the BalSt 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 2FG
7 plays · 36 yds · 1:3855% → 55%
Q1 12:02
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
45.1%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Justin Hall for 2 yds to the BalSt 49Similar
Q1 12:02
2ND & 8
OWN 49
+17
45.1%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Justin Hall for 17 yds to the CMich 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:02
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+12
45.0%
Tye Evans run for 12 yds to the CMich 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:02
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
45.0%
Drew Plitt pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:02
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+5
45.0%
Drew Plitt run for 5 yds to the CMich 17Similar
Q1 12:02
3RD & 5
OPP 17
0
45.1%
Drew Plitt pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:24
4TH & 5
OPP 17
+35
45.3%
Jack Knight 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 3PUNT
8 plays · 33 yds · 0:0045% → 46%
Q1 10:24
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+9
45.4%
Ty Brock pass complete to Drayton Law for 9 yds to the CMich 26Similar
Q1 10:24
2ND & 1
OWN 26
+5
45.7%
Kobe Lewis run for 5 yds to the CMich 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:24
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+13
45.5%
Ty Brock pass complete to Drayton Law for 13 yds to the CMich 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:24
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+3
45.9%
Lew Nichols III run for 3 yds to the CMich 47Similar
Q1 10:24
2ND & 7
OWN 47
+3
45.9%
Ty Brock pass complete to Kalil Pimpleton for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 10:24
3RD & 4
50
0
45.8%
Ty Brock pass incomplete to Kalil PimpletonSimilar
Q1 10:24
4TH & 4
50
0
45.6%
Luke Elzinga punt for 45 yds, downed at the BalSt 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 4TD
14 plays · 95 yds · 5:1054% → 59%
Q1 7:52
1ST & 10
OWN 5
0
45.8%
Tye Evans run for no gain to the BalSt 5Similar
Q1 7:52
2ND & 10
OWN 5
-3
45.9%
BALL ST Penalty, false start (-3 Yards) to the BalSt 2Similar
Q1 7:52
2ND & 13
OWN 2
+14
45.9%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Yo'Heinz Tyler for 14 yds to the BalSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:52
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
45.8%
Tye Evans run for no gain to the BalSt 16Similar
Q1 7:52
2ND & 10
OWN 16
+9
45.9%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Antwan Davis for 9 yds to the BalSt 25Similar
Q1 7:52
3RD & 1
OWN 25
+2
45.8%
Drew Plitt run for 2 yds to the BalSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:52
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+7
45.7%
Drew Plitt run for 7 yds to the BalSt 34Similar
Q1 7:52
2ND & 3
OWN 34
-6
45.4%
Drew Plitt sacked by Troy Brown for a loss of 6 yards to the BalSt 28Similar
Q1 7:52
3RD & 9
OWN 28
+12
46.0%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Will Jones for 12 yds to the BalSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:52
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
45.3%
Justin Hall run for 5 yds to the BalSt 45Similar
Q1 7:52
2ND & 5
OWN 45
0
45.2%
Will Jones run for no gain to the BalSt 45Similar
Q1 7:52
3RD & 5
OWN 45
+27
45.3%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Jalen McGaughy for 27 yds to the CMich 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:52
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+8
44.9%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Cody Rudy for 8 yds to the CMich 20Similar
Q1 2:42
2ND & 2
OPP 20
+20
40.9%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Yo'Heinz Tyler for 20 yds for a TD (Jack Knight KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 5TD
8 plays · 63 yds · 2:4942% → 48%
Q1 2:42
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
41.7%
Darius Bracy run for 1 yd to the CMich 38Similar
Q1 2:42
2ND & 9
OWN 38
+4
41.8%
Ty Brock pass complete to Kalil Pimpleton for 4 yds to the CMich 42Similar
Q1 2:42
3RD & 5
OWN 42
+4
41.7%
Ty Brock pass complete to Kalil Pimpleton for 4 yds to the CMich 46Similar
Q1 2:42
4TH & 1
OWN 46
+2
41.6%
Ty Brock run for 2 yds to the CMich 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:42
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
42.3%
Lew Nichols III run for 4 yds to the BalSt 48Similar
Q1 2:42
2ND & 6
OPP 48
+10
42.6%
Ty Brock pass complete to Hunter Buczkowski for 10 yds to the BalSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+38
48.0%
Ty Brock pass complete to Kalil Pimpleton for 38 yds for a TD (Marshall Meeder KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 6PUNT
7 plays · 19 yds · 0:0055% → 55%
Q2 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
45.2%
Tye Evans run for 6 yds to the BalSt 41Similar
Q2 14:53
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+4
44.6%
Tye Evans run for 4 yds to the BalSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
44.5%
Tye Evans run for 4 yds to the BalSt 49Similar
Q2 14:53
2ND & 6
OWN 49
+5
44.4%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Justin Hall for 5 yds to the CMich 46Similar
Q2 14:53
3RD & 1
OPP 46
0
44.3%
Drew Plitt pass incomplete to Yo'Heinz Tyler, broken up by Dishon McNarySimilar
Q2 14:53
4TH & 1
OPP 46
0
45.3%
Drew Plitt punt for 22 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the CMich 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 8 yds · 0:0046% → 45%
Q2 13:17
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+7
46.2%
Ty Brock pass complete to Kalil Pimpleton for 7 yds to the CMich 31Similar
Q2 13:17
2ND & 3
OWN 31
+4
47.4%
Ty Brock pass complete to Kobe Lewis for 4 yds to the CMich 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:17
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
46.5%
Kobe Lewis run for 3 yds to the CMich 38Similar
Q2 13:17
2ND & 7
OWN 38
-6
47.7%
Kalil Pimpleton run for a loss of 6 yards to the CMich 32Similar
Q2 13:17
3RD & 13
OWN 32
0
45.5%
Ty Brock pass incomplete to Drayton LawSimilar
Q2 13:17
4TH & 13
OWN 32
0
45.1%
Luke Elzinga punt for 50 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BalSt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0054% → 53%
Q2 11:18
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+1
45.8%
Justin Hall run for 1 yd to the BalSt 19Similar
Q2 11:18
2ND & 9
OWN 19
+4
45.9%
Will Jones run for 4 yds to the BalSt 23Similar
Q2 11:18
3RD & 5
OWN 23
0
46.4%
Drew Plitt pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:18
4TH & 5
OWN 23
-25
47.1%
Nathan Snyder punt for 31 yds , TEAM returns for a loss of 25 yards to the CMich 0 CENTRAL MICH Penalty, Offensive holding (10 Yards) to the CMich 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · -6 yds · 0:0046% → 45%
Q2 10:05
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+8
46.4%
Lew Nichols III run for 8 yds to the CMich 19Similar
Q2 10:05
2ND & 2
OWN 19
-3
46.7%
Ty Brock run for a loss of 3 yards to the CMich 16Similar
Q2 10:05
3RD & 5
OWN 16
-11
45.5%
Ty Brock sacked by Bryce Cosby for a loss of 11 yards to the CMich 5Similar
Q2 10:05
4TH & 16
OWN 5
0
44.9%
Luke Elzinga punt for 43 yds , Justin Hall returns for no gain to the CMich 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 10TD
10 plays · 48 yds · 3:4656% → 66%
Q2 8:26
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-1
43.8%
Tye Evans run for a loss of 1 yard to the CMich 49Similar
Q2 8:26
2ND & 11
OPP 49
-3
44.0%
Drew Plitt sacked by Troy Hairston II and Mohamed Diallo for a loss of 3 yards to the BalSt 48Similar
Q2 8:26
3RD & 14
OWN 48
+9
45.8%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Antwan Davis for 9 yds to the CMich 43Similar
Q2 8:26
4TH & 5
OPP 43
+6
45.3%
Drew Plitt run for 6 yds to the CMich 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:26
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-1
43.8%
Will Jones run for a loss of 1 yard to the CMich 38Similar
Q2 8:26
2ND & 11
OPP 38
+10
43.8%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Antwan Davis for 10 yds to the CMich 28Similar
Q2 8:26
3RD & 1
OPP 28
+2
43.8%
Drew Plitt run for 2 yds to the CMich 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:26
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
43.0%
Drew Plitt pass incomplete to Yo'Heinz Tyler, broken up by Dishon McNarySimilar
Q2 8:26
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+14
43.3%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Justin Hall for 14 yds to the CMich 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:40
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
33.7%
Drew Plitt run for 12 yds for a TD (Jack Knight KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · -10 yds · 0:0035% → 34%
Q2 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
35.0%
Kobe Lewis run for 1 yd to the CMich 26Similar
Q2 4:40
2ND & 9
OWN 26
-9
35.0%
Ty Brock sacked by Brandon Martin for a loss of 9 yards to the CMich 17Similar
Q2 4:40
3RD & 18
OWN 17
-2
33.9%
Lew Nichols III run for a loss of 2 yards to the CMich 15Similar
Q2 4:40
4TH & 20
OWN 15
0
33.5%
Luke Elzinga punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Justin Hall at the BalSt 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 12TD
9 plays · 54 yds · 2:3567% → 82%
Q2 2:48
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+6
33.1%
Tye Evans run for 6 yds to the CMich 48Similar
Q2 2:48
2ND & 4
OPP 48
+7
32.9%
Drew Plitt run for 7 yds to the CMich 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:48
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+7
33.0%
Tye Evans run for 7 yds to the CMich 34Similar
Q2 2:48
2ND & 3
OPP 34
+15
32.7%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Justin Hall for 15 yds to the CMich 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:48
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+11
32.7%
Will Jones run for 11 yds to the CMich 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+1
29.7%
Will Jones run for 1 yd to the CMich 7Similar
Q2 1:09
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
29.7%
Drew Plitt run for 2 yds to the CMich 5Similar
Q2 0:13
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
18.1%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Dylan Koch for 5 yds for a TD (Jack Knight KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 14END OF HALF
3 plays · 9 yds · 0:0082% → 82%
Q2 0:09
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+9
17.8%
CENTRAL MICH Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (JaCorey Sullivan) to the CMich 9Similar
Q2 0:09
1ST & 1
OPP 9
0
17.6%
Drew Plitt pass incomplete to Justin Hall, broken up by Donte KentSimilar
Q2 0:09
2ND & 1
OPP 9
0
17.8%
Drew Plitt pass incomplete to Yo'Heinz TylerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 15INT
7 plays · 27 yds · 0:0079% → 80%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+4
21.2%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Justin Hall for 4 yds to the BalSt 37Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 37
0
20.7%
Drew Plitt pass incomplete to Antwan DavisSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 37
+22
21.1%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Antwan Davis for 22 yds to the CMich 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
20.0%
Drew Plitt pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+1
20.1%
Will Jones run for 1 yd to the CMich 40Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 40
0
20.3%
Drew Plitt pass intercepted Willie Reid return for no gain to the CMich 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 16TD
3 plays · 81 yds · 1:1321% → 29%
Q3 13:26
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-3
21.1%
Kobe Lewis run for a loss of 3 yards to the CMich 16Similar
Q3 13:26
2ND & 13
OWN 16
+2
20.8%
Kobe Lewis run for 2 yds to the CMich 18Similar
Q3 12:13
3RD & 11
OWN 18
+82
28.7%
Ty Brock run for 82 yds for a TD (Marshall Meeder KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 17DOWNS
8 plays · 12 yds · 0:0071% → 69%
Q3 12:13
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+1
29.3%
Will Jones run for 1 yd to the BalSt 46Similar
Q3 12:13
2ND & 9
OWN 46
-1
29.3%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Will Jones for a loss of 1 yard to the BalSt 45Similar
Q3 12:13
3RD & 10
OWN 45
+14
29.9%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Antwan Davis for 14 yds to the CMich 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:13
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
29.3%
Drew Plitt pass incomplete to Justin HallSimilar
Q3 12:13
2ND & 10
OPP 41
0
29.3%
Drew Plitt pass incomplete to Antwan DavisSimilar
Q3 12:13
3RD & 10
OPP 41
+7
29.7%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Cody Rudy for 7 yds to the CMich 34Similar
Q3 12:13
4TH & 3
OPP 34
-9
31.1%
Drew Plitt sacked by Troy Brown for a loss of 9 yards to the CMich 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0031% → 29%
Q3 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-1
30.8%
Ty Brock pass complete to Kalil Pimpleton for a loss of 1 yard to the CMich 42Similar
Q3 10:20
2ND & 11
OWN 42
0
30.4%
Ty Brock pass incomplete to Drayton LawSimilar
Q3 10:20
3RD & 11
OWN 42
+6
29.2%
Ty Brock pass complete to Joel Wilson for 6 yds to the CMich 48Similar
Q3 10:20
4TH & 5
OWN 48
0
29.4%
Luke Elzinga punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Justin Hall at the BalSt 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 19PUNT
8 plays · 27 yds · 0:0070% → 69%
Q3 9:02
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+1
29.8%
Tye Evans run for 1 yd to the BalSt 17Similar
Q3 9:02
2ND & 9
OWN 17
+17
30.1%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Cody Rudy for 17 yds to the BalSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:02
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+13
29.1%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Yo'Heinz Tyler for 13 yds to the BalSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:02
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+6
28.1%
Tye Evans run for 6 yds to the CMich 47Similar
Q3 9:02
2ND & 4
OPP 47
0
27.9%
Justin Hall run for no gain to the CMich 47Similar
Q3 9:02
3RD & 4
OPP 47
0
28.5%
Drew Plitt pass incomplete to Antwan Davis, broken up by Dishon McNarySimilar
Q3 9:02
4TH & 4
OPP 47
-10
29.4%
SNYDER, Nathan punt 46 yards to the CMU1, downed, PENALTY BSU holding (EVANS, Tye) 10 yards to the BSU43, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:02
4TH & 14
OWN 43
0
30.9%
Nathan Snyder punt for 29 yds , Kalil Pimpleton returns for no gain to the CMich 28 Kalil Pimpleton fumbled, recovered by BalSt Tye EvansSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 20TD
4 plays · 28 yds · 0:4676% → 88%
Q3 6:08
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-5
24.3%
BALL ST Penalty, false start (Tye Evans) to the CMich 33Similar
Q3 6:08
1ST & 15
OPP 33
+12
24.5%
Justin Hall run for 12 yds to the CMich 21Similar
Q3 6:08
2ND & 3
OPP 21
+12
24.3%
Drew Plitt run for 4 yds to the CMich 17 for a 1ST down CENTRAL MICH Penalty, face mask (8 yards) (Tico Brown) to the CMich 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
12.4%
Will Jones run for 9 yds for a TD (Jack Knight KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:0016% → 15%
Q3 5:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
15.7%
Ty Brock run for 3 yds to the CMich 28Similar
Q3 5:22
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
15.7%
Ty Brock pass incomplete to Kalil PimpletonSimilar
Q3 5:22
3RD & 7
OWN 28
-4
15.4%
Ty Brock sacked by Kyron Mims for a loss of 4 yards to the CMich 24Similar
Q3 5:22
4TH & 11
OWN 24
0
15.3%
Luke Elzinga punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Justin Hall at the BalSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 22TD
7 plays · 69 yds · 2:4387% → 97%
Q3 3:57
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
12.6%
Justin Hall run for 4 yds to the BalSt 35Similar
Q3 3:57
2ND & 6
OWN 35
0
12.4%
Drew Plitt pass incomplete to Cody RudySimilar
Q3 3:57
3RD & 6
OWN 35
+16
12.8%
Drew Plitt run for 5 yds to the CMich 40 for a 1ST down CENTRAL MICH Penalty, Defensive holding (Dishon McNary) to the CMich 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:57
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
11.6%
Will Jones run for 5 yds to the CMich 44Similar
Q3 3:57
2ND & 5
OPP 44
+4
11.3%
Justin Hall run for 4 yds to the CMich 40Similar
Q3 3:57
3RD & 1
OPP 40
+1
11.5%
Tye Evans run for 1 yd to the CMich 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:14
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+39
2.9%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Jalen McGaughy for 39 yds for a TD (Jack Knight KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 23INT
6 plays · 9 yds · 1:144% → 4%
Q3 1:14
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+7
4.2%
Ty Brock pass complete to Drayton Law for 7 yds to the CMich 37Similar
Q3 1:14
2ND & 3
OWN 37
+1
4.4%
Lew Nichols III run for 1 yd to the CMich 38Similar
Q3 1:14
3RD & 2
OWN 38
+8
4.5%
Lew Nichols III run for 8 yds to the CMich 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:14
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-7
4.5%
Ty Brock sacked by Anthony Ekpe for a loss of 7 yards to the CMich 39Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 17
OWN 39
0
3.7%
Ty Brock pass intercepted J.T. Wahee return for no gain to the BalSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 24TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:1697% → 100%
Q4 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
2.8%
Tye Evans run for no gain to the BalSt 25Similar
Q4 14:54
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+27
2.8%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Yo'Heinz Tyler for 27 yds to the CMich 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-5
2.6%
Drew Plitt sacked by Daniel Richardson for a loss of 5 yards to the BalSt 47Similar
Q4 14:54
2ND & 15
OWN 47
+1
2.6%
Tye Evans run for 1 yd to the BalSt 48Similar
Q4 14:54
3RD & 14
OWN 48
+14
2.7%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Antwan Davis for 14 yds to the CMich 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+4
2.6%
Donny Marcus run for 4 yds to the CMich 34Similar
Q4 14:54
2ND & 6
OPP 34
0
2.6%
Drew Plitt pass incomplete to Yo'Heinz TylerSimilar
Q4 11:38
3RD & 6
OPP 34
+34
0.4%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Jalen McGaughy for 34 yds for a TD (Jack Knight KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 25TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 2:440% → 1%
Q4 11:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
0.4%
Ty Brock pass incomplete to Drayton LawSimilar
Q4 11:38
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+9
0.4%
Ty Brock pass complete to JaCorey Sullivan for 9 yds to the CMich 34Similar
Q4 11:38
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+15
0.4%
Lew Nichols III run for 15 yds to the CMich 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:38
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+5
0.5%
Ty Brock run for 5 yds to the BalSt 46Similar
Q4 11:38
2ND & 5
OPP 46
+15
0.5%
Lew Nichols III run for 15 yds to the BalSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:38
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+11
0.5%
Lew Nichols III run for 11 yds to the BalSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:38
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
0.5%
Ty Brock pass incomplete to Kobe LewisSimilar
Q4 11:38
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+16
0.5%
Ty Brock pass complete to Joel Wilson for 16 yds to the BalSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-3
0.5%
Kobe Lewis run for a loss of 3 yards to the BalSt 7Similar
Q4 8:54
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
0.6%
Ty Brock pass complete to Hunter Buczkowski for 7 yds for a TD CENTRAL MICH Penalty, Offensive pass interference (JaCorey Sullivan) to the BalSt 18 (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 26PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 8:54
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
0.3%
Tye Evans run for no gain to the CMich 46Similar
Q4 8:54
2ND & 10
OPP 46
0
0.3%
Drew Plitt pass incomplete to Dylan KochSimilar
Q4 8:54
3RD & 10
OPP 46
0
0.3%
Drew Plitt pass incomplete to Yo'Heinz Tyler, broken up by Dishon McNarySimilar
Q4 8:54
4TH & 10
OPP 46
0
0.3%
Nathan Snyder punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Kalil Pimpleton at the CMich 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 27INT
10 plays · 52 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 7:54
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+6
0.4%
Ty Brock pass complete to Kobe Lewis for 6 yds to the CMich 17Similar
Q4 7:54
2ND & 4
OWN 17
+3
0.4%
Kobe Lewis run for 3 yds to the CMich 20Similar
Q4 7:54
3RD & 1
OWN 20
0
0.4%
Kobe Lewis run for no gain to the CMich 20Similar
Q4 7:54
4TH & 1
OWN 20
+11
0.4%
Ty Brock pass complete to Kalil Pimpleton for 11 yds to the CMich 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:54
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+20
0.4%
Ty Brock pass complete to Joel Wilson for 20 yds to the BalSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:54
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+10
0.4%
Ty Brock pass complete to JaCorey Sullivan for 10 yds to the BalSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:54
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
0.4%
Ty Brock pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:54
2ND & 10
OPP 39
0
0.4%
Ty Brock pass incomplete to Hunter BuczkowskiSimilar
Q4 7:54
3RD & 10
OPP 39
+2
0.4%
Ty Brock run for 2 yds to the BalSt 37Similar
Q4 7:54
4TH & 8
OPP 37
0
0.4%
Ty Brock pass intercepted Brett Anderson II return for no gain to the BalSt 37 CENTRAL MICH Penalty, Defensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 28END OF GAME
9 plays · 25 yds · 3:41100% → 100%
Q4 5:11
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+7
0.2%
Tye Evans run for 7 yds to the BalSt 24Similar
Q4 5:11
2ND & 3
OWN 24
+2
0.2%
Tye Evans run for 2 yds to the BalSt 26Similar
Q4 5:11
3RD & 1
OWN 26
+8
0.2%
Tye Evans run for 8 yds to the BalSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:11
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
0.2%
Donny Marcus run for 3 yds to the BalSt 37Similar
Q4 5:11
2ND & 7
OWN 37
+1
0.2%
Donny Marcus run for 1 yd to the BalSt 38Similar
Q4 1:30
3RD & 6
OWN 38
+9
0.1%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Justin Hall for 9 yds to the BalSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-2
0.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the BalSt 45Similar
Q4 1:30
2ND & 12
OWN 45
-3
0.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the BalSt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 5:22
Will Jones run for 9 yds for a TD (Jack Knight KICK)
-11.9
TD · Q2 0:13
Drew Plitt pass complete to Dylan Koch for 5 yds for a TD (Jack Knight KICK)
-11.6
TD · Q2 4:40
Drew Plitt run for 12 yds for a TD (Jack Knight KICK)
-9.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com