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BALL

Ball State 27 at Toledo 24

TOL
2020 · Week 13 · Nov 28, 2020 · Glass Bowl
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Win probability · TOL
modelTOL aheadBALL aheadconfidence bandkey playTOL scoreBALL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGFGTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 2:23 · Nathan Snyder punt for 54 yds , Ronnie Blackmon returns for 5 yds to the Toled 48
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+44.0+22.00−22.0−44.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 191Home team on offense−19.0Pregame prior+1.1Score differential−4.7Garbage-time factor−6.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.9Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−6.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 4:31: Drew Plitt pass complete to Yo'Heinz Tyler for 11 yds for a TD (Jack Knight KICK) — BALL win probability +6.0 pts (now 34%) (top driver: BALL has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 12:33: Jack Knight 32 yd FG GOOD — BALL win probability +4.2 pts (now 46%) (top driver: BALL has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 7:35: Drew Plitt pass complete to Yo'Heinz Tyler for 10 yds for a TD (Jack Knight KICK) — BALL win probability +14.5 pts (now 90%) (top driver: BALL has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 5:31: Eli Peters pass complete to Bryce Mitchell for 28 yds for a TD (Eli Peters pass for Two-Point Conversion) — TOL win probability +14.6 pts (now 19%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 2:34: Carter Bradley pass complete to Bryce Mitchell for 18 yds for a TD (Thomas Cluckey KICK) — TOL win probability +28.5 pts (now 44%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TOL made the numbers' call on 4 of 7BALL made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q1 11:58TOL 4th & 14 at BALL 35, down 7
    Close callWent for it · 74.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    74.0%−0.1
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    74.1%
    45% to make
    Punt
    74.0%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 4:31TOL 4th & 3 at BALL 47, down 14
    Close callPunted · 67.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.3%−0.5
    average punt
  3. Q2 12:33BALL 4th & 7 at TOL 15, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 42.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.6%−0.7
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    42.2%
    83% to make
    Punt
    36.2%−6.0
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:26TOL 4th & 7 at BALL 36, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 56.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    56.2%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    55.8%−0.4
    42% to make
    Punt
    55.4%−0.8
    average punt
  5. Q2 6:52BALL 4th & 4 at TOL 19, up 17
    Close callKicked a field goal · 55.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.7%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    55.0%−0.6
    77% to make
    Punt
    46.5%−9.2
    average punt
  6. Q2 6:52TOL 4th & 22 at BALL 40, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.1%−1.2
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    48.2%−0.1
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    48.3%
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:32TOL 4th & 16 at BALL 20, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 38.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.1%−2.1
    14% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    39.3%
    75% to make
    Punt
    34.4%−4.8
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:02BALL 4th & 3 at TOL 37, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 62.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    63.6%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    61.1%−2.5
    40% to make
    Punt
    61.5%−2.1
    average punt
  9. Q3 15:00TOL 4th & 3 at TOL 46, down 14
    Close callPunted · 42.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.9%−0.4
    average punt
  10. Q3 8:08BALL 4th & 2 at TOL 31, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 71.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    72.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    70.2%−2.0
    54% to make
    Punt
    68.5%−3.6
    average punt
  11. Q4 13:06BALL 4th & 9 at TOL 14, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 87.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.6%−1.5
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    87.0%
    84% to make
    Punt
    78.2%−8.8
    average punt
  12. Q4 13:02TOL 4th & 3 at BALL 21, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 10.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.5%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    9.8%−0.6
    74% to make
    Punt
    0.6%−9.9
    average punt
  13. Q4 8:34BALL 4th & 4 at BALL 34, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.7%−0.2
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.9%
    average punt
  14. Q4 4:37BALL 4th & 6 at BALL 29, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.8%−0.6
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.5%
    average punt
  15. Q4 2:23BALL 4th & 8 at BALL 3, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.1%−13.5
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.7%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TOL made the numbers' call on 0 of 3BALL made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 12:04BALL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    25.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    25.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 4:31BALL Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    32.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    32.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 7:35BALL Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 3:31TOL Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    21.8%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    21.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 5:31TOL Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    10.3%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    9.8%−0.5
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 2:34TOL Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    21.8%−0.3
    97% to make
    Go for two
    22.1%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BALLDrive 1TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 2:5624% → 26%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
76.3%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Justin Hall for 6 yds to the BalSt 31Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+5
76.3%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Antwan Davis for 5 yds to the BalSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
76.3%
Tye Evans run for 2 yds to the BalSt 38Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+9
76.3%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Cody Rudy for 9 yds to the BalSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+1
76.3%
Tye Evans run for 1 yd to the BalSt 48Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 48
+22
76.3%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Cody Rudy for 22 yds to the Toled 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+18
76.3%
Justin Hall run for 5 yds to the Toled 25 for a 1ST down TOLEDO Penalty, personal foul (Saeed Holt) to the Toled 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+7
76.3%
Justin Hall run for 7 yds to the Toled 5Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 5
+3
76.3%
PLITT, Drew pass incomplete to TYLER, Yo'Heinz, PENALTY TOLEDO pass interference (WOMACK,Samuel) 3 yards to the TOLEDO2, 1ST DOWN BALL, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 12:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
74.5%
Drew Plitt run for 2 yds for a TD (Jack Knight KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 2DOWNS
12 plays · 56 yds · 0:0075% → 75%
Q1 11:58
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+9
74.7%
Eli Peters pass complete to Bryce Mitchell for 9 yds to the Toled 28Similar
Q1 11:58
2ND & 1
OWN 28
0
74.8%
Bryant Koback run for no gain to the Toled 28Similar
Q1 11:58
3RD & 1
OWN 28
+11
74.7%
Bryant Koback run for 11 yds to the Toled 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:58
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+6
74.8%
Bryant Koback run for 6 yds to the Toled 45Similar
Q1 11:58
2ND & 4
OWN 45
+7
74.9%
Eli Peters pass complete to Bryant Koback for 7 yds to the BalSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:58
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+5
75.0%
Eli Peters pass complete to Devin Maddox for 5 yds to the BalSt 43Similar
Q1 11:58
2ND & 5
OPP 43
+12
75.0%
Eli Peters pass complete to Danzel McKinley-Lewis for 12 yds to the BalSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:58
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
75.1%
Micah Kelly run for no gain to the BalSt 31Similar
Q1 11:58
2ND & 10
OPP 31
-4
75.1%
Micah Kelly run for a loss of 4 yards to the BalSt 35Similar
Q1 11:58
3RD & 14
OPP 35
0
74.8%
Eli Peters pass incomplete to Bryce Mitchell, broken up by Bryce CosbySimilar
Q1 11:58
4TH & 14
OPP 35
+10
74.6%
Eli Peters pass complete to Bryant Koback for 10 yds to the BalSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 3TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:2028% → 34%
Q1 7:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
72.2%
Justin Hall run for 6 yds to the BalSt 31Similar
Q1 7:51
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+6
72.0%
Drew Plitt run for 6 yds to the BalSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:51
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
72.0%
Tye Evans run for 3 yds to the BalSt 40Similar
Q1 7:51
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+18
71.8%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Justin Hall for 18 yds to the Toled 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:51
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+9
71.7%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Hassan Littles for 9 yds to the Toled 33Similar
Q1 7:51
2ND & 1
OPP 33
-2
71.6%
Tye Evans run for a loss of 2 yards to the Toled 35Similar
Q1 7:51
3RD & 3
OPP 35
+22
71.7%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Yo'Heinz Tyler for 22 yds to the Toled 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:51
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+2
71.6%
Donny Marcus run for 2 yds to the Toled 11Similar
Q1 4:31
2ND & 8
OPP 11
+11
65.6%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Yo'Heinz Tyler for 11 yds for a TD (Jack Knight KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 4PUNT
9 plays · 18 yds · 0:0067% → 68%
Q1 4:31
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-1
67.4%
Bryant Koback run for a loss of 1 yard to the Toled 34Similar
Q1 4:31
2ND & 11
OWN 34
+12
67.3%
Eli Peters pass complete to Danzel McKinley-Lewis for 12 yds to the Toled 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:31
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-1
68.0%
Bryant Koback run for a loss of 1 yard to the Toled 45Similar
Q1 4:31
2ND & 11
OWN 45
-5
67.7%
TOLEDO Penalty, false start (Danzel McKinley-Lewis) to the Toled 40Similar
Q1 4:31
2ND & 16
OWN 40
0
67.4%
Eli Peters pass incomplete to Devin MaddoxSimilar
Q1 4:31
3RD & 16
OWN 40
-5
67.2%
TOLEDO Penalty, false start (Bryce Mitchell) to the Toled 35Similar
Q1 4:31
3RD & 21
OWN 35
+18
67.0%
Eli Peters run for 18 yds to the BalSt 47Similar
Q1 4:31
4TH & 3
OPP 47
0
67.9%
Bailey Flint punt for 47 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 5FG
15 plays · 65 yds · 4:3736% → 46%
Q1 2:10
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
63.6%
Tye Evans run for no gain to the BalSt 20Similar
Q1 2:10
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+10
63.6%
PLITT, Drew pass complete to RUDY, Cody for 6 yards to the BALL26 (JOHNSON,Dyontae), PENALTY TOLEDO holding (McDONALD,Chris) 10 yards to the BALL30, 1ST DOWN BALL, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 2:10
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
63.5%
TOLEDO Penalty, offside defense (Jamal Hines) to the BalSt 35Similar
Q1 2:10
1ST & 5
OWN 35
+5
63.3%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Justin Hall for 5 yds to the BalSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:10
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
63.0%
Justin Hall run for no gain to the BalSt 40Similar
Q1 2:10
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+16
63.1%
Tye Evans run for 16 yds to the Toled 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+10
60.3%
Tye Evans run for 10 yds to the Toled 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
60.2%
Drew Plitt pass incomplete to Cody RudySimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+16
60.3%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Yo'Heinz Tyler for 16 yds to the Toled 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-6
60.2%
Drew Plitt run for a loss of 6 yards to the Toled 24Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 16
OPP 24
+11
60.3%
Tye Evans run for 11 yds to the Toled 13Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 13
+3
60.4%
Tye Evans run for 3 yds to the Toled 10Similar
Q2 12:36
4TH & 2
OPP 10
-5
58.5%
BALL ST Penalty, false start (Anthony Todd) to the Toled 15Similar
Q2 12:33
4TH & 7
OPP 15
+32
54.2%
Jack Knight 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 6DOWNS
8 plays · 40 yds · 0:0056% → 57%
Q2 12:26
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-3
55.8%
Bryant Koback run for a loss of 3 yards to the Toled 21Similar
Q2 12:26
2ND & 13
OWN 21
+11
55.6%
Eli Peters pass complete to Jerjuan Newton for 11 yds to the Toled 32Similar
Q2 12:26
3RD & 2
OWN 32
+29
56.3%
Eli Peters pass complete to Isaiah Winstead for 14 yds to the BalSt 46 for a 1ST down BALL ST Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Antonio Phillips) to the BalSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:26
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+1
57.3%
Bryant Koback run for 1 yd to the BalSt 38Similar
Q2 12:26
2ND & 9
OPP 38
0
57.3%
Eli Peters pass incomplete to Bryant Koback, broken up by Chris AgyemangSimilar
Q2 12:26
3RD & 9
OPP 38
+2
57.1%
Eli Peters run for 2 yds to the BalSt 36Similar
Q2 12:26
4TH & 7
OPP 36
0
57.0%
Eli Peters pass incomplete to Jerjuan NewtonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 7MISSED FG
9 plays · 45 yds · 2:4551% → 55%
Q2 9:37
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+13
48.7%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Justin Hall for 13 yds to the BalSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:37
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
48.0%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Justin Hall for 4 yds to the Toled 47Similar
Q2 9:37
2ND & 6
OPP 47
+6
48.0%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Antwan Davis for 6 yds to the Toled 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:37
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+1
47.9%
Drew Plitt run for 1 yd to the Toled 40Similar
Q2 9:37
2ND & 9
OPP 40
+15
47.9%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Justin Hall for 15 yds to the Toled 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:37
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
47.8%
Drew Plitt pass incomplete to Antwan Davis, broken up by Samuel WomackSimilar
Q2 9:37
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+4
47.9%
Tye Evans run for 4 yds to the Toled 21Similar
Q2 9:37
3RD & 6
OPP 21
+2
48.0%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Antwan Davis for 2 yds to the Toled 19Similar
Q2 6:52
4TH & 4
OPP 19
+36
45.2%
Jack Knight 36 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 8PUNT
8 plays · 40 yds · 0:0049% → 50%
Q2 6:52
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+40
48.8%
Eli Peters pass complete to Devin Maddox for 40 yds to the BalSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:52
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
50.9%
Eli Peters pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:52
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+12
50.8%
Eli Peters pass complete to Danzel McKinley-Lewis for 12 yds to the BalSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:52
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
51.8%
Eli Peters pass incomplete to Danzel McKinley-Lewis, broken up by Antonio PhillipsSimilar
Q2 6:52
2ND & 10
OPP 28
-10
51.4%
PETERS,Eli pass complete to ROSI,Drew for 6 yards to the BALL22 (ANDERSON, B.;MARTIN, Brandon), PENALTY TOLEDO holding (GURMAN,Vitaliy) 10 yards to the BALL38, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:52
2ND & 20
OPP 38
+4
50.2%
Eli Peters pass complete to Jerjuan Newton for 4 yds to the BalSt 34Similar
Q2 6:52
3RD & 16
OPP 34
-6
50.0%
Eli Peters sacked by Anthony Ekpe and Joshua Tarango for a loss of 6 yards to the BalSt 40Similar
Q2 6:52
4TH & 22
OPP 40
0
49.5%
Bailey Flint punt for 37 yds, downed at the BalSt 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 9INT
9 plays · 44 yds · 2:0058% → 65%
Q2 4:21
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+1
41.8%
Tye Evans run for 1 yd to the BalSt 4Similar
Q2 4:21
2ND & 9
OWN 4
+6
41.9%
Tye Evans run for 6 yds to the BalSt 10Similar
Q2 4:21
3RD & 3
OWN 10
+8
42.0%
Drew Plitt run for 8 yds to the BalSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:21
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+17
41.2%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Antwan Davis for 17 yds to the BalSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:21
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
36.4%
Tye Evans run for no gain to the BalSt 35Similar
Q2 2:21
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+4
36.5%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Cody Rudy for 4 yds to the BalSt 39Similar
Q2 2:21
3RD & 6
OWN 39
+8
35.9%
Tye Evans run for 8 yds to the BalSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:21
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-30
35.3%
Drew Plitt pass intercepted Nate Bauer return for 30 yds to the BalSt 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 10FG
5 plays · -6 yds · 0:2543% → 45%
Q2 0:57
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
42.8%
Eli Peters pass incomplete to Bryant Koback, broken up by Bryce CosbySimilar
Q2 0:57
2ND & 10
OPP 14
0
42.8%
Eli Peters pass incomplete to Danzel McKinley-LewisSimilar
Q2 0:57
3RD & 10
OPP 14
-6
41.4%
Eli Peters sacked by Amechi Uzodinma II for a loss of 6 yards to the BalSt 20Similar
Q2 0:32
4TH & 16
OPP 20
+37
44.5%
Thomas Cluckey 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 11DOWNS
8 plays · 23 yds · 0:2161% → 63%
Q2 0:23
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+16
39.1%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Yo'Heinz Tyler for 16 yds to the Toled 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:23
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+7
38.1%
Drew Plitt run for 7 yds to the Toled 37Similar
Q2 0:11
2ND & 3
OPP 37
0
35.8%
Drew Plitt pass incomplete to Antwan DavisSimilar
Q2 0:11
3RD & 3
OPP 37
0
36.6%
Drew Plitt pass incomplete to Antwan DavisSimilar
Q2 0:02
4TH & 3
OPP 37
0
37.2%
Drew Plitt run for no gain to the Toled 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 12PUNT
8 plays · 21 yds · 0:0041% → 43%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
40.8%
Eli Peters pass complete to Danzel McKinley-Lewis for 9 yds to the Toled 34Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 34
-10
41.9%
Eli Peters run for no gain to the Toled 34 TOLEDO Penalty, illegal block (Bryce Mitchell) to the Toled 24Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+15
40.7%
PETERS,Eli sacked for loss of 9 yards to the TOLEDO15 (AGYEMANG, Chris), PENALTY BALL personal foul (AGYEMANG, Chris) 15 yards to the TOLEDO39, 1ST DOWN TOLEDO, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
42.5%
Eli Peters pass complete to Bryant Koback for 2 yds to the Toled 41Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 41
+6
43.0%
Eli Peters pass complete to Bryce Mitchell for 6 yds to the Toled 47Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 47
-1
43.2%
Bryant Koback run for a loss of 1 yard to the Toled 46Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 3
OWN 46
0
42.6%
Bailey Flint punt for 36 yds, downed at the BalSt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 13DOWNS
11 plays · 52 yds · 4:1164% → 73%
Q3 12:19
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+4
35.7%
Tye Evans run for 4 yds to the BalSt 22Similar
Q3 12:19
2ND & 6
OWN 22
-7
35.5%
Drew Plitt sacked by Desjuan Johnson for a loss of 7 yards to the BalSt 15Similar
Q3 12:19
3RD & 13
OWN 15
+5
36.7%
PLITT, Drew pass complete to HALL, Justin for no gain to the BALL15, out-of-bounds (BOLDEN,Daniel), PENALTY TOLEDO 12 men on the field 5 yards to the BALL20, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 12:19
3RD & 8
OWN 20
+31
36.6%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Justin Hall for 31 yds to the Toled 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:19
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-3
33.3%
Tye Evans run for a loss of 3 yards to the BalSt 48Similar
Q3 12:19
2ND & 13
OWN 48
+13
33.9%
Tye Evans run for 13 yds to the Toled 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:19
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+3
33.3%
Donny Marcus run for 3 yds to the Toled 36Similar
Q3 12:19
2ND & 7
OPP 36
+4
33.2%
Drew Plitt run for 4 yds to the Toled 32Similar
Q3 12:19
3RD & 3
OPP 32
+1
33.4%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Justin Hall for 1 yd to the Toled 31Similar
Q3 8:08
4TH & 2
OPP 31
+1
27.4%
Drew Plitt run for 1 yd to the Toled 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 14INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0031% → 31%
Q3 8:03
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
31.0%
Eli Peters pass intercepted Bryce Cosby return for a loss of 4 yards to the Toled 26 TOLEDO Penalty, illegal motion ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 15TD
2 plays · 44 yds · 0:1675% → 90%
Q3 7:51
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+34
24.8%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Justin Hall for 34 yds to the Toled 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
10.3%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Yo'Heinz Tyler for 10 yds for a TD (Jack Knight KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 16TD
9 plays · 84 yds · 3:5516% → 26%
Q3 7:26
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+3
15.9%
Bryant Koback run for 3 yds to the Toled 19Similar
Q3 7:26
2ND & 7
OWN 19
+11
15.9%
Eli Peters run for 11 yds to the Toled 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:26
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+9
16.4%
Eli Peters pass complete to Bryant Koback for 9 yds to the Toled 39Similar
Q3 7:26
2ND & 1
OWN 39
+13
17.2%
Bryant Koback run for 13 yds to the BalSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:26
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+45
17.8%
Eli Peters pass complete to Isaiah Winstead for 45 yds to the BalSt 3 for a 1ST down BALL ST Penalty, Defensive pass interference ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
25.5%
Bryant Koback run for no gain to the BalSt 3Similar
Q3 7:26
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
-7
24.8%
Bryant Koback run for a loss of 7 yards to the BalSt 10Similar
Q3 3:31
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
26.0%
Eli Peters pass complete to Isaiah Winstead for 10 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 17FG
17 plays · 60 yds · 5:2281% → 95%
Q3 3:28
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
18.6%
Justin Hall run for 3 yds to the BalSt 29Similar
Q3 3:28
2ND & 7
OWN 29
+11
18.6%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Antwan Davis for 11 yds to the BalSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:28
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
17.7%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Tye Evans for 5 yds to the BalSt 45Similar
Q3 3:28
2ND & 5
OWN 45
+4
17.5%
Tye Evans run for 4 yds to the BalSt 49Similar
Q3 3:28
3RD & 1
OWN 49
+1
17.9%
Drew Plitt run for 1 yd to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:28
1ST & 10
50
+5
17.4%
Justin Hall run for 5 yds to the Toled 45Similar
Q3 3:28
2ND & 5
OPP 45
+8
17.3%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Dylan Koch for 8 yds to the Toled 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:28
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+4
17.3%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Yo'Heinz Tyler for 4 yds to the Toled 33Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 33
+3
10.2%
Justin Hall run for 3 yds to the Toled 30Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 30
0
10.6%
Drew Plitt pass incomplete to Yo'Heinz Tyler, broken up by Samuel WomackSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 3
OPP 30
+15
12.1%
PLITT, Drew sacked for loss of 5 yards to the TOLEDO35 (HINES,Jamal;BAUER,Nate), PENALTY TOLEDO face mask (TAYLOR,Terrance) 15 yards to the TOLEDO15, 1ST DOWN BALL, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+1
10.3%
Tye Evans run for 1 yd to the Toled 14Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 14
0
10.3%
Drew Plitt pass incomplete to Dylan KochSimilar
Q4 13:15
3RD & 9
OPP 14
0
7.2%
Drew Plitt pass incomplete to Yo'Heinz TylerSimilar
Q4 13:06
4TH & 9
OPP 14
+31
4.6%
Jack Knight 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 18DOWNS
12 plays · 51 yds · 0:0010% → 11%
Q4 13:02
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+3
9.6%
Eli Peters run for 3 yds to the Toled 24Similar
Q4 13:02
2ND & 7
OWN 24
+4
9.7%
Eli Peters pass complete to Ronnie Blackmon for 4 yds to the Toled 28Similar
Q4 13:02
3RD & 3
OWN 28
+18
9.7%
Eli Peters pass complete to Isaiah Winstead for 18 yds to the Toled 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:02
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+12
10.3%
Eli Peters pass complete to Danzel McKinley-Lewis for 12 yds to the BalSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:02
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+7
10.8%
Eli Peters pass complete to Bryant Koback for 7 yds to the BalSt 35Similar
Q4 13:02
2ND & 3
OPP 35
+7
12.1%
Eli Peters run for 7 yds to the BalSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:02
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-2
12.1%
Devin Maddox run for a loss of 2 yards to the BalSt 30Similar
Q4 13:02
2ND & 12
OPP 30
+6
11.5%
Eli Peters pass complete to Bryant Koback for 6 yds to the BalSt 24Similar
Q4 13:02
3RD & 6
OPP 24
-10
11.5%
PETERS,Eli pass incomplete to KOBACK,Bryant, PENALTY TOLEDO holding (ROSI,Nick) 10 yards to the BALL34, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 13:02
3RD & 16
OPP 34
+13
10.7%
Eli Peters pass complete to Ronnie Blackmon for 13 yds to the BalSt 21Similar
Q4 13:02
4TH & 3
OPP 21
-7
11.2%
Eli Peters sacked by Christian Albright for a loss of 7 yards to the BalSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q4 8:34
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+7
2.8%
Tye Evans run for 7 yds to the BalSt 35Similar
Q4 8:34
2ND & 3
OWN 35
+1
2.7%
Tye Evans run for 1 yd to the BalSt 36Similar
Q4 8:34
3RD & 2
OWN 36
-2
2.6%
Tye Evans run for a loss of 2 yards to the BalSt 34Similar
Q4 8:34
4TH & 4
OWN 34
+9
2.7%
Nathan Snyder punt for 43 yds , Ronnie Blackmon returns for 9 yds to the Toled 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 20TD
3 plays · 68 yds · 0:564% → 19%
Q4 6:27
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+7
4.4%
Eli Peters pass complete to Drew Rosi for 7 yds to the Toled 39Similar
Q4 6:27
2ND & 3
OWN 39
+33
4.7%
Eli Peters pass complete to Bryce Mitchell for 33 yds to the BalSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:31
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+28
19.3%
Eli Peters pass complete to Bryce Mitchell for 28 yds for a TD (Eli Peters pass for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 21PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 0:5490% → 91%
Q4 5:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
10.3%
Tye Evans run for 4 yds to the BalSt 29Similar
Q4 5:31
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
10.2%
Drew Plitt pass incomplete to Yo'Heinz Tyler, broken up by Chris McDonaldSimilar
Q4 5:31
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
10.7%
Drew Plitt sacked by Desjuan Johnson and Jamal Hines for 0 yards to the BalSt 29Similar
Q4 4:37
4TH & 6
OWN 29
+11
9.2%
Nathan Snyder punt for 35 yds , Ronnie Blackmon returns for 11 yds to the BalSt 40 BALL ST Penalty, illegal formation (-5 Yards) to the BalSt 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 22TD
7 plays · 48 yds · 1:5412% → 44%
Q4 4:28
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
12.3%
Eli Peters run for 3 yds to the BalSt 45Similar
Q4 4:28
2ND & 7
OPP 45
+18
12.6%
Eli Peters pass complete to Bryant Koback for 18 yds to the BalSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:28
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-1
15.8%
Eli Peters run for a loss of 1 yard to the BalSt 34 Eli Peters fumbled, forced by Christian Albright, recovered by Toled Luke DoergerSimilar
Q4 4:28
2ND & 17
OPP 34
+12
13.6%
Bryant Koback run for 12 yds to the BalSt 22Similar
Q4 4:28
3RD & 5
OPP 22
+14
13.8%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Isaiah Winstead for 14 yds to the BalSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-10
15.8%
BRADLEY,Carter rush for 4 yards to the BALL4 (TARANGO, Joshua), PENALTY TOLEDO holding (GURMAN,Vitaliy) 10 yards to the BALL18, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 18
+18
44.2%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Bryce Mitchell for 18 yds for a TD (Thomas Cluckey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 23PUNT
8 plays · 2 yds · 0:1174% → 75%
Q4 2:34
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+7
25.7%
Tye Evans run for 7 yds to the BalSt 8Similar
Q4 2:28
2ND & 3
OWN 8
+2
23.6%
Tye Evans run for 2 yds to the BalSt 10Similar
Q4 2:23
3RD & 1
OWN 10
-5
23.3%
Justin Hall run for a loss of 5 yards to the BalSt 5Similar
Q4 2:23
4TH & 6
OWN 5
-2
25.4%
BALL ST Penalty, delay of game (-2 Yards) to the BalSt 3Similar
Q4 2:23
4TH & 8
OWN 3
+5
25.4%
Nathan Snyder punt for 54 yds , Ronnie Blackmon returns for 5 yds to the Toled 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 24FUMBLE
3 plays · 9 yds · 0:0029% → 31%
Q4 1:18
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+12
29.2%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Isaiah Winstead for 12 yds to the BalSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:18
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
31.4%
Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Isaiah WinsteadSimilar
Q4 1:18
2ND & 10
OPP 40
-6
31.0%
Carter Bradley sacked by Anthony Ekpe for a loss of 6 yards to the BalSt 43 Carter Bradley fumbled, recovered by BalSt Bryce Cosby , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 25END OF GAME
2 plays · -4 yds · 0:0091% → 90%
Q4 1:04
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-2
9.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the BalSt 41Similar
Q4 1:04
2ND & 12
OWN 41
-2
9.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the BalSt 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 2:34
Carter Bradley pass complete to Bryce Mitchell for 18 yds for a TD (Thomas Cluckey KICK)
+28.5
TD · Q4 5:31
Eli Peters pass complete to Bryce Mitchell for 28 yds for a TD (Eli Peters pass for Two-Point Conversion)
+14.6
TD · Q3 7:35
Drew Plitt pass complete to Yo'Heinz Tyler for 10 yds for a TD (Jack Knight KICK)
-14.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com