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TOL

Toledo 45 at Eastern Michigan 28

EMU
2020 · Week 12 · Nov 18, 2020 · Rynearson Stadium
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Win probability · EMU
modelEMU aheadTOL aheadconfidence bandkey playEMU scoreTOL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 10:56 · Jake Julien punt for 44 yds , Ronnie Blackmon returns for a loss of 1 yard to the Toled 17 Ronnie Blackmon fumbled, recovered by EMich Blake Bogan
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+53.0+26.50−26.5−53.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 55Home team on offense−7.6Score differential−4.0Pregame prior−15.8Garbage-time factor−2.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 1:23: Eli Peters pass complete to Devin Maddox for 25 yds for a TD (Evan Davis KICK) — TOL win probability +3.9 pts (now 72%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 14:37: Eli Peters pass complete to Danzel McKinley-Lewis for 68 yds for a TD (Evan Davis KICK) — TOL win probability +4.8 pts (now 76%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 10:43: Preston Hutchinson pass complete to Tanner Knue for 17 yds for a TD (Chad Ryland KICK) — EMU win probability +7.7 pts (now 33%) (top driver: EMU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 5:18: Bryant Koback run for 5 yds for a TD (Evan Davis KICK) — TOL win probability +7.0 pts (now 80%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 11:51: Carter Bradley pass complete to Isaiah Winstead for 24 yds for a TD (Evan Davis KICK) — TOL win probability +7.0 pts (now 94%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
EMU made the numbers' call on 8 of 9TOL made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 12:43TOL 4th & 1 at midfield, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 64.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    64.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    64.3%−0.2
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:59TOL 4th & 8 at EMU 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.7%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    63.6%−0.1
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    63.7%
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:36EMU 4th & 1 at EMU 18, tied
    Close callPunted · 36.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.4%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:10EMU 4th & 12 at EMU 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.2%−0.3
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.6%
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:47EMU 4th & 9 at EMU 30, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.6%−0.6
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.2%
    average punt
  6. Q2 13:08EMU 4th & 1 at EMU 34, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 29.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    30.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    29.3%−0.7
    average punt
  7. Q2 10:56EMU 4th & 8 at EMU 38, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.0%−0.4
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.4%
    average punt
  8. Q2 2:57TOL 4th & 17 at EMU 23, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 75.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.5%−2.0
    13% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    75.5%
    70% to make
    Punt
    70.6%−4.9
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:23TOL 4th & 4 at EMU 22, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 79.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.4%−0.7
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    79.1%
    72% to make
    Punt
    75.4%−3.7
    average punt
  10. Q3 13:10EMU 4th & 4 at EMU 31, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.3%−0.4
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.7%
    average punt
  11. Q4 10:45TOL 4th & 2 at EMU 20, up 25
    Close callKicked a field goal · 99.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.1%−0.2
    75% to make
    Punt
    98.1%−1.2
    average punt
  12. Q4 5:28TOL 4th & 7 at TOL 29, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.9%−<0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.0%
    average punt
  13. Q4 2:35EMU 4th & 1 at TOL 41, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    0.7%−0.2
    32% to make
    Punt
    0.7%−0.2
    average punt
  14. Q4 1:22EMU 4th & 2 at TOL 31, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    0.6%−0.2
    54% to make
    Punt
    0.5%−0.3
    average punt
  15. Q4 0:12EMU 4th & 8 at TOL 8, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.8%
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    0.5%−0.3
    90% to make
    Punt
    0.5%−0.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
EMU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4TOL made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 1:23TOL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:37TOL Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 10:43EMU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    33.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    33.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 5:18TOL Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 11:51TOL Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 5:48TOL Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 0:53EMU Touchdown, down 25 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    1.4%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    1.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 9:56TOL Touchdown, up 31 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 7:13EMU Touchdown, down 26 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · converted
    Kick
    0.5%−0.2
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    0.7%
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 0:12EMU Touchdown, down 18 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    1.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    1.5%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TOLDrive 1PUNT
10 plays · 25 yds · 3:4172% → 70%
Q1 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+7
28.2%
Bryant Koback run for 7 yds to the Toled 36Similar
Q1 14:15
2ND & 3
OWN 36
+5
28.4%
Bryant Koback run for 5 yds to the Toled 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:58
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
28.5%
Bryant Koback run for 4 yds to the Toled 45Similar
Q1 13:19
2ND & 6
OWN 45
0
28.7%
Eli Peters pass incomplete to Danzel McKinley-LewisSimilar
Q1 13:02
3RD & 6
OWN 45
+5
28.8%
Eli Peters run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 12:43
4TH & 1
50
+2
29.0%
Micah Kelly run for 2 yds to the EMich 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
29.2%
Micah Kelly run for 3 yds to the EMich 45Similar
Q1 11:45
2ND & 7
OPP 45
-1
29.3%
Eli Peters pass complete to Micah Kelly for a loss of 1 yard to the EMich 46Similar
Q1 11:06
3RD & 8
OPP 46
0
29.6%
Eli Peters pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:59
4TH & 8
OPP 46
0
29.9%
Bailey Flint punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Jeff Hubbard at the EMich 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:5930% → 30%
Q1 10:35
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+6
30.1%
Preston Hutchinson pass complete to Quian Williams for 6 yds to the EMich 15Similar
Q1 10:29
2ND & 4
OWN 15
0
30.2%
Preston Hutchinson pass incomplete to Quian WilliamsSimilar
Q1 10:20
3RD & 4
OWN 15
+3
30.0%
DJ Smith run for 3 yds to the EMich 18Similar
Q1 9:36
4TH & 1
OWN 18
0
30.3%
Jake Julien punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Ronnie Blackmon at the Toled 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 3FUMBLE
5 plays · 46 yds · 1:2970% → 70%
Q1 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
30.4%
Bryant Koback run for 5 yds to the Toled 45Similar
Q1 8:40
2ND & 5
OWN 45
+14
30.3%
Eli Peters pass complete to Bryant Koback for 14 yds to the EMich 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:13
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+36
30.5%
Eli Peters pass complete to Isaiah Winstead for 36 yds to the EMich 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
30.4%
Bryant Koback run for 1 yd to the EMich 4Similar
Q1 7:31
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
-10
30.4%
Eli Peters sacked by Terry Myrick for a loss of 10 yards to the EMich 14 Eli Peters fumbled, forced by Terry Myrick, recovered by EMich Terry Myrick , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 4PUNT
8 plays · 15 yds · 1:0932% → 31%
Q1 7:19
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
31.5%
Preston Hutchinson pass incomplete to Hassan BeydounSimilar
Q1 7:15
2ND & 10
OWN 14
0
31.5%
Preston Hutchinson pass incomplete to Thomas OdukoyaSimilar
Q1 7:05
3RD & 10
OWN 14
+17
31.2%
Preston Hutchinson pass complete to DJ Smith for 17 yds to the EMich 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+3
32.0%
Preston Hutchinson run for 3 yds to the EMich 34Similar
Q1 6:23
2ND & 7
OWN 34
0
32.2%
Preston Hutchinson pass incomplete to Hassan BeydounSimilar
Q1 6:23
3RD & 7
OWN 34
-5
31.8%
EASTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the EMich 29Similar
Q1 6:17
3RD & 12
OWN 29
0
31.6%
Preston Hutchinson pass incomplete to Hassan BeydounSimilar
Q1 6:10
4TH & 12
OWN 29
0
31.4%
Jake Julien punt for 53 yds, fair catch by Ronnie Blackmon at the Toled 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 5TD
12 plays · 82 yds · 4:4368% → 72%
Q1 6:06
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
32.0%
Eli Peters pass incomplete to Jamal TurnerSimilar
Q1 5:38
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+7
32.3%
Eli Peters pass complete to Ronnie Blackmon for 7 yds to the Toled 25Similar
Q1 5:28
3RD & 3
OWN 25
+6
32.5%
Eli Peters pass complete to Ronnie Blackmon for 6 yds to the Toled 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:02
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+10
32.3%
Peters, Eli pass incomplete to Mitchell, Bryce, PENALTY EASTMICH holding 10 yards to the TOLEDO41, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TOLEDO.Similar
Q1 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
31.9%
Bryant Koback run for 5 yds to the Toled 46Similar
Q1 4:15
2ND & 5
OWN 46
+4
32.0%
Eli Peters pass complete to Ronnie Blackmon for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 4:00
3RD & 1
50
+4
32.0%
Bryant Koback run for 4 yds to the EMich 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:19
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
32.2%
Eli Peters pass incomplete to Bryce MitchellSimilar
Q1 2:55
2ND & 10
OPP 46
0
32.3%
Micah Kelly run for no gain to the EMich 46Similar
Q1 2:30
3RD & 10
OPP 46
+14
32.7%
Eli Peters pass complete to Ronnie Blackmon for 14 yds to the EMich 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+7
31.9%
Eli Peters pass complete to Jamal Turner for 7 yds to the EMich 25Similar
Q1 1:23
2ND & 3
OPP 25
+25
28.0%
Eli Peters pass complete to Devin Maddox for 25 yds for a TD (Evan Davis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:1930% → 29%
Q1 1:06
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+2
29.7%
Trey Bess III run for 2 yds to the EMich 31Similar
Q1 0:28
2ND & 8
OWN 31
0
29.8%
Preston Hutchinson pass incomplete to Bryson CannonSimilar
Q1 0:10
3RD & 8
OWN 31
-1
29.4%
Preston Hutchinson run for a loss of 1 yard to the EMich 30Similar
Q2 14:47
4TH & 9
OWN 30
0
28.9%
Jake Julien punt for 38 yds, downed at the Toled 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 7TD
1 play · 68 yds · 0:0076% → 76%
Q2 14:37
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+68
24.1%
Eli Peters pass complete to Danzel McKinley-Lewis for 68 yds for a TD (Evan Davis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 8FUMBLE
10 plays · 13 yds · 3:1825% → 23%
Q2 14:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
25.2%
Trey Bess III run for 2 yds to the EMich 27Similar
Q2 13:50
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+6
24.9%
Preston Hutchinson run for 6 yds to the EMich 33Similar
Q2 13:24
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+1
25.1%
Trey Bess III run for 1 yd to the EMich 34Similar
Q2 13:08
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+2
24.9%
Preston Hutchinson run for 2 yds to the EMich 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-10
25.0%
Bess III, Trey rush for 3 yards to the EASTMICH39, PENALTY EASTMICH holding (Sow, Sidy) 10 yards to the EASTMICH26, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:15
1ST & 20
OWN 26
+11
24.3%
Preston Hutchinson pass complete to Quian Williams for 11 yds to the EMich 37Similar
Q2 11:45
2ND & 9
OWN 37
+1
23.8%
Preston Hutchinson run for 1 yd to the EMich 38Similar
Q2 11:07
3RD & 8
OWN 38
0
23.8%
Preston Hutchinson pass incomplete to Hassan BeydounSimilar
Q2 10:56
4TH & 8
OWN 38
+44
23.4%
Jake Julien punt for 44 yds , Ronnie Blackmon returns for a loss of 1 yard to the Toled 17 Ronnie Blackmon fumbled, recovered by EMich Blake BoganSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 9TD
2 plays · 17 yds · 0:0725% → 33%
Q2 10:50
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
25.1%
Aaron Jackson pass incomplete to Thomas OdukoyaSimilar
Q2 10:43
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+17
32.8%
Preston Hutchinson pass complete to Tanner Knue for 17 yds for a TD (Chad Ryland KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 10TD
12 plays · 71 yds · 5:1271% → 80%
Q2 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+8
29.4%
Bryant Koback run for 8 yds to the Toled 37Similar
Q2 10:00
2ND & 2
OWN 43
+21
28.5%
Bryant Koback run for 6 yds to the EMich 43 for a 1ST down EASTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Turan Rush) to the EMich 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:41
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
28.0%
Bryant Koback run for no gain to the EMich 42Similar
Q2 9:16
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+10
28.0%
Eli Peters pass complete to Jerjuan Newton for 10 yds to the EMich 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:44
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+12
27.8%
Bryant Koback run for 12 yds to the EMich 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:25
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+8
27.7%
Bryant Koback run for 8 yds to the EMich 12Similar
Q2 7:57
2ND & 2
OPP 12
+4
26.7%
Micah Kelly run for 4 yds to the EMich 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-1
26.6%
Micah Kelly run for a loss of 1 yard to the EMich 9Similar
Q2 6:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
0
26.6%
Eli Peters run for no gain to the EMich 9Similar
Q2 5:25
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
+4
27.1%
Peters, Eli pass pass intercepted by Hernandez, Korey at the EASTMICH0, Hernandez, Korey return 80 yards to the TOLEDO20, PENALTY EASTMICH roughing passer 4 yards to the EASTMICH5, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TOLEDO.Similar
Q2 5:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
20.1%
Bryant Koback run for 5 yds for a TD (Evan Davis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 11FUMBLE
3 plays · -9 yds · 0:0621% → 21%
Q2 5:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
21.4%
EASTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the EMich 20Similar
Q2 5:12
1ST & 15
OWN 20
-4
21.2%
Trey Bess III run for a loss of 4 yards to the EMich 16 Trey Bess III fumbled, forced by Daniel Bolden, recovered by Toled Justin ClarkSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 12MISSED FG
4 plays · -7 yds · 2:0380% → 79%
Q2 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-1
20.0%
Micah Kelly run for a loss of 1 yard to the EMich 17Similar
Q2 4:25
2ND & 11
OPP 17
+2
19.9%
Micah Kelly run for 2 yds to the EMich 15Similar
Q2 3:28
3RD & 9
OPP 15
-8
19.9%
Eli Peters sacked by Turan Rush for a loss of 8 yards to the EMich 23Similar
Q2 2:57
4TH & 17
OPP 23
+40
21.0%
Evan Davis 40 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 13FUMBLE
3 plays · 31 yds · 0:3921% → 22%
Q2 2:51
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+22
20.7%
Preston Hutchinson pass complete to Hassan Beydoun for 22 yds to the EMich 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+7
22.1%
Karmi Mackey run for 7 yds to the Toled 48Similar
Q2 2:12
2ND & 3
OPP 48
+2
22.1%
Karmi Mackey run for 2 yds to the Toled 46 Karmi Mackey fumbled, recovered by Toled Zachary FordSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 14FG
7 plays · 32 yds · 1:3182% → 84%
Q2 1:54
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+6
18.1%
Bryant Koback run for 6 yds to the EMich 48Similar
Q2 1:37
2ND & 4
OPP 48
+4
17.8%
Bryant Koback run for 4 yds to the EMich 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:20
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+16
17.8%
Bryant Koback run for 16 yds to the EMich 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:08
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
17.5%
Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Jerjuan NewtonSimilar
Q2 1:00
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+6
17.6%
Bryant Koback run for 6 yds to the EMich 22Similar
Q2 0:35
3RD & 4
OPP 22
0
17.6%
Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Jerjuan NewtonSimilar
Q2 0:23
4TH & 4
OPP 22
+39
15.8%
Evan Davis 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 15END OF HALF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0017% → 17%
Q2 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
16.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the EMich 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:4017% → 16%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
16.7%
Preston Hutchinson run for 3 yds to the EMich 28Similar
Q3 14:25
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
16.3%
Preston Hutchinson run for no gain to the EMich 28Similar
Q3 13:40
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+3
15.8%
Preston Hutchinson pass complete to Hassan Beydoun for 3 yds to the EMich 31Similar
Q3 13:10
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
15.8%
Jake Julien punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Ronnie Blackmon at the Toled 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 17TD
5 plays · 74 yds · 1:0985% → 94%
Q3 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+2
14.9%
Bryant Koback run for 2 yds to the Toled 28Similar
Q3 12:30
2ND & 8
OWN 28
+12
14.7%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Danzel McKinley-Lewis for 12 yds to the Toled 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:10
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+21
13.6%
Bryant Koback run for 21 yds to the EMich 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+15
13.4%
EASTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (15 Yards) to the EMich 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:51
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+24
6.4%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Isaiah Winstead for 24 yds for a TD (Evan Davis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 1:398% → 7%
Q3 11:44
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-7
8.0%
DJ Smith run for 3 yds to the EMich 28 EASTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, Offensive Holding (Jake Donnellon) to the EMich 18Similar
Q3 11:00
1ST & 17
OWN 18
+1
7.5%
DJ Smith run for 1 yd to the EMich 19Similar
Q3 10:25
2ND & 16
OWN 19
-7
7.1%
Preston Hutchinson sacked by Jamal Hines for a loss of 7 yards to the EMich 12Similar
Q3 10:05
3RD & 23
OWN 12
+9
6.5%
Preston Hutchinson pass complete to Hassan Beydoun for 9 yds to the EMich 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 19TD
8 plays · 76 yds · 3:2795% → 97%
Q3 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+2
5.1%
Bryant Koback run for 2 yds to the Toled 26Similar
Q3 8:40
2ND & 8
OWN 26
0
4.9%
Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Jerjuan NewtonSimilar
Q3 8:32
3RD & 8
OWN 26
+13
4.8%
Carter Bradley run for 13 yds to the Toled 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:06
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-5
4.4%
TOLEDO Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Toled 34Similar
Q3 7:45
1ST & 15
OWN 34
+4
4.5%
Bryant Koback run for 4 yds to the Toled 38Similar
Q3 6:40
2ND & 11
OWN 38
0
4.2%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Drew Rosi for no gain to the Toled 38Similar
Q3 6:00
3RD & 11
OPP 47
+5
3.4%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Jerjuan Newton for 15 yds to the EASTMICH 47 TOLEDO Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Toled 43Similar
Q3 5:48
3RD & 6
OWN 43
+57
3.0%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Ronnie Blackmon for 57 yds for a TD (Evan Davis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 20TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 4:452% → 1%
Q3 5:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
2.4%
Preston Hutchinson pass complete to Hassan Beydoun for 12 yds to the EMich 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:05
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
2.3%
DJ Smith run for 4 yds to the EMich 41Similar
Q3 4:30
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+3
2.0%
Preston Hutchinson pass complete to Hassan Beydoun for 3 yds to the EMich 44Similar
Q3 4:00
3RD & 3
OWN 44
+5
2.0%
Preston Hutchinson run for 5 yds to the EMich 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:37
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
2.1%
Preston Hutchinson pass incomplete to Hassan BeydounSimilar
Q3 3:20
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+7
2.0%
Preston Hutchinson pass complete to Aaron Jackson for 7 yds to the Toled 44Similar
Q3 2:35
3RD & 3
OPP 44
+4
2.0%
Preston Hutchinson pass complete to Hassan Beydoun for 4 yds to the Toled 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:15
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+1
2.0%
DJ Smith run for 1 yd to the Toled 39Similar
Q3 1:49
2ND & 9
OPP 39
0
1.9%
Preston Hutchinson pass incomplete to Bryson CannonSimilar
Q3 1:41
3RD & 9
OPP 39
+15
1.8%
Preston Hutchinson run for 15 yds to the Toled 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:23
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+15
1.9%
Hutchinson, Preston pass incomplete to Beydoun, Hassan, PENALTY TOLEDO pass interference 15 yards to the TOLEDO9, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN EASTMICH.Similar
Q3 1:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
2.7%
DJ Smith run for no gain to the Toled 9Similar
Q3 0:53
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
1.1%
Preston Hutchinson pass complete to DJ Smith for 9 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 21MISSED FG
11 plays · 54 yds · 4:5299% → 100%
Q3 0:37
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+6
1.0%
Bryant Koback run for 6 yds to the Toled 32Similar
Q4 14:48
2ND & 4
OWN 32
+5
0.9%
Bryant Koback run for 5 yds to the Toled 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:14
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+7
0.8%
Dequan Finn run for 7 yds to the Toled 44Similar
Q4 13:47
2ND & 3
OWN 44
+7
0.8%
Bryant Koback run for 7 yds to the EMich 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:05
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+21
0.7%
Dequan Finn run for 21 yds to the EMich 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:44
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+1
0.6%
Micah Kelly run for 1 yd to the EMich 27Similar
Q4 11:55
2ND & 9
OPP 27
+6
0.4%
Micah Kelly run for 6 yds to the EMich 21Similar
Q4 11:25
3RD & 3
OPP 21
+1
0.4%
Dequan Finn run for 1 yd to the EMich 20Similar
Q4 10:45
4TH & 2
OPP 20
+37
0.4%
Evan Davis 37 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 22INT TD
3 plays · 1 yds · 0:291% → 0%
Q4 10:25
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
0.5%
Preston Hutchinson pass complete to Hassan Beydoun for 1 yd to the EMich 21Similar
Q4 10:05
2ND & 9
OWN 21
0
0.5%
Preston Hutchinson pass incomplete to Bryson CannonSimilar
Q4 9:56
3RD & 9
OWN 21
-20
0.2%
Preston Hutchinson pass intercepted for a TD Jamal Hines return for 20 yds for a TD (Evan Davis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 23TD
9 plays · 77 yds · 2:220% → 2%
Q4 9:35
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+3
0.2%
DJ Smith run for 3 yds to the EMich 26Similar
Q4 8:57
2ND & 7
OWN 26
-10
0.2%
Smith, DJ rush for no gain to the EASTMICH26, PENALTY EASTMICH holding 10 yards to the EASTMICH16, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:45
2ND & 17
OWN 16
+11
0.2%
Preston Hutchinson pass complete to Quian Williams for 11 yds to the EMich 27Similar
Q4 8:10
3RD & 6
OWN 37
+25
0.2%
Preston Hutchinson pass complete to Hassan Beydoun for 10 yds to the Toled 37 for a 1ST down TOLEDO Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (15 Yards) to the Toled 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+9
0.2%
Preston Hutchinson pass complete to Quian Williams for 9 yds to the Toled 39Similar
Q4 7:43
2ND & 1
OPP 39
+15
0.2%
Hutchinson, Preston pass incomplete to Jackson, Aaron, PENALTY TOLEDO personal foul 15 yards to the TOLEDO24, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN EASTMICH.Similar
Q4 7:32
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+12
0.2%
Hutchinson, Preston pass sacked for loss of 7 yards to the TOLEDO31 (Johnson, Dyontae), PENALTY TOLEDO personal foul 12 yards to the TOLEDO12, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN EASTMICH.Similar
Q4 7:13
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
1.6%
Preston Hutchinson pass complete to Quian Williams for 12 yds for a TD (Preston Hutchinson pass to Tanner Knue for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 24PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:3299% → 99%
Q4 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-1
0.9%
Micah Kelly run for a loss of 1 yard to the Toled 25Similar
Q4 6:22
2ND & 11
OWN 25
+4
0.7%
Dequan Finn run for 4 yds to the Toled 29Similar
Q4 5:40
3RD & 7
OWN 29
0
0.7%
Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Adam BealeSimilar
Q4 5:28
4TH & 7
OWN 29
+7
0.6%
Bailey Flint punt for 41 yds , Jeff Hubbard returns for 7 yds to the EMich 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 25TD
19 plays · 63 yds · 4:461% → 2%
Q4 4:58
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-3
1.0%
Preston Hutchinson run for a loss of 3 yards to the EMich 34Similar
Q4 4:43
2ND & 13
OWN 34
+16
1.0%
Preston Hutchinson pass complete to Quian Williams for 16 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:20
1ST & 10
50
+8
1.0%
Preston Hutchinson pass complete to Aaron Jackson for 8 yds to the Toled 42Similar
Q4 4:00
2ND & 2
OPP 42
-10
1.1%
Preston Hutchinson sacked by Terrance Taylor and Desjuan Johnson for a loss of 10 yards to the EMich 48Similar
Q4 3:00
3RD & 12
OWN 48
+5
0.9%
Hutchinson, Preston pass complete to Smith, DJ for loss of 3 yards to the EASTMICH45, PENALTY TOLEDO illegal procedure 5 yards to the TOLEDO47, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:46
3RD & 7
OPP 47
+6
0.9%
Preston Hutchinson run for 6 yds to the Toled 41Similar
Q4 2:35
4TH & 1
OPP 41
+2
1.0%
Karmi Mackey run for 2 yds to the Toled 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:13
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+8
0.9%
Preston Hutchinson pass complete to Tanner Knue for 8 yds to the Toled 31Similar
Q4 2:01
2ND & 2
OPP 31
-7
1.1%
Preston Hutchinson sacked by Desjuan Johnson and AJ Crider for a loss of 7 yards to the Toled 38Similar
Q4 1:40
3RD & 14
OPP 43
+12
0.8%
Preston Hutchinson pass complete to Karmi Mackey for 12 yds to the Toled 31Similar
Q4 1:22
4TH & 2
OPP 31
+8
0.8%
Preston Hutchinson pass complete to Bryson Cannon for 8 yds to the Toled 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:08
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-8
1.0%
Preston Hutchinson sacked by Jamal Hines and AJ Crider for a loss of 8 yards to the Toled 31Similar
Q4 0:55
2ND & 18
OPP 31
+2
0.9%
Preston Hutchinson pass complete to Quian Williams for 2 yds to the Toled 29Similar
Q4 0:39
3RD & 16
OPP 29
+19
0.8%
Preston Hutchinson pass complete to Quian Williams for 19 yds to the Toled 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
0.9%
Preston Hutchinson pass incomplete to Quian WilliamsSimilar
Q4 0:27
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+2
0.9%
DJ Smith run for 2 yds to the Toled 8Similar
Q4 0:17
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
0
0.8%
Preston Hutchinson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:12
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
2.4%
Preston Hutchinson pass complete to Bryson Cannon for 8 yds for a TD (Chad Ryland KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 26Uncategorized
2 plays · -7 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-7
1.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 7 yards to the Toled 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 10:43
Preston Hutchinson pass complete to Tanner Knue for 17 yds for a TD (Chad Ryland KICK)
+7.7
TD · Q2 5:18
Bryant Koback run for 5 yds for a TD (Evan Davis KICK)
-7
TD · Q3 11:51
Carter Bradley pass complete to Isaiah Winstead for 24 yds for a TD (Evan Davis KICK)
-7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com