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BUF

Buffalo 42 at Bowling Green 17

BGSU
2020 · Week 12 · Nov 17, 2020 · Doyt L. Perry Stadium
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Win probability · BGSU
modelBGSU aheadBUF aheadconfidence bandkey playBGSU scoreBUF score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of GameTD-3.9BGSU 3.6%Jaret Patterson run for 4 yds for a TD(Alex McNulty KICK)AWAY 21 - HOME 3 · Q2 1:18
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 1:18 · Jaret Patterson run for 4 yds for a TD (Alex McNulty KICK)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+54.5+27.30−27.3−54.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 74Pregame prior−38.8Home team on offense−20.8Score differential−10.2Garbage-time factor−5.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−3.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−1.6
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q1 6:49: Nate Needham 40 yd FG GOOD — BGSU win probability +1.1 pts (now 5%) (top driver: BGSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 1:18: Jaret Patterson run for 4 yds for a TD (Alex McNulty KICK) — BUF win probability +3.9 pts (now 96%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 6:00: Jaret Patterson run for 15 yds for a TD (Alex McNulty KICK) — BUF win probability +3.0 pts (now 99%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 4:34: Terion Stewart run for 1 yd for a TD (Nate Needham KICK) — BGSU win probability +2.2 pts (now 3%) (top driver: BGSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 2:08: Jaret Patterson run for 57 yds for a TD (Alex McNulty KICK) — BUF win probability +1.3 pts (now 100%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BGSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 8BUF made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 6:49BGSU 4th & 11 at BUF 23, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 5.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.0%−0.1
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    5.0%
    70% to make
    Punt
    4.7%−0.4
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:42BUF 4th & 8 at BUF 35, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.4%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.5%
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:45BGSU 4th & 4 at BUF 29, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    6.1%−<0.1
    58% to make
    Punt
    5.7%−0.4
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:55BGSU 4th & 2 at BUF 16, down 4
    Close callKicked a field goal · 7.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.8%
    56% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    7.7%−0.1
    81% to make
    Punt
    6.7%−1.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:31BGSU 4th & 1 at BGSU 32, down 11
    Close callPunted · 6.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.7%−0.3
    average punt
  6. Q2 1:18BUF 4th & 1 at BGSU 4, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 92.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    92.1%
    65% to convert
    Field goal
    91.5%−0.6
    93% to make
    Punt
    90.0%−2.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:24BGSU 4th & 2 at BUF 29, down 18
    Close callWent for it · 6.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.8%−0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    6.0%
    58% to make
    Punt
    4.8%−1.1
    average punt
  8. Q3 15:00BGSU 4th & 23 at BGSU 12, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.5%−1.0
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.5%
    average punt
  9. Q3 12:58BUF 4th & 2 at BGSU 11, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 95.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    95.4%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    95.1%−0.3
    87% to make
    Punt
    93.0%−2.4
    average punt
  10. Q3 11:27BGSU 4th & 9 at BUF 45, down 18
    Close callWent for it · 5.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.4%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    5.1%−0.4
    25% to make
    Punt
    5.5%
    average punt
  11. Q4 11:18BUF 4th & 8 at BUF 27, up 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.5%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.6%
    average punt
  12. Q4 8:49BGSU 4th & 10 at BUF 45, down 25
    Close callWent for it · 0.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.3%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    0.3%−0.1
    25% to make
    Punt
    0.4%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BGSU made the numbers' call on 0 of 2BUF made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 11:36BUF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 10:37BUF Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 1:18BUF Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 6:00BUF Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 1:10BUF Touchdown, up 31 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 11:18BGSU Touchdown, down 26 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.6%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.6%
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 4:34BGSU Touchdown, down 19 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    1.6%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    1.8%
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 2:08BUF Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BUFDrive 1TD
8 plays · 74 yds · 3:2497% → 97%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
3.0%
Jaret Patterson run for 3 yds to the Buff 29Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 29
+11
3.0%
Jaret Patterson run for 11 yds to the Buff 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
3.0%
Jaret Patterson run for 6 yds to the Buff 46Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 46
+6
3.0%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Antonio Nunn for 6 yds to the BwGrn 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+28
3.0%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Antonio Nunn for 28 yds to the BwGrn 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+3
3.0%
Jaret Patterson run for 3 yds to the BwGrn 17Similar
Q1 11:36
2ND & 7
OPP 17
+17
3.4%
Jaret Patterson run for 17 yds for a TD (Alex McNulty KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 2FG
13 plays · 50 yds · 4:434% → 5%
Q1 11:32
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+21
3.5%
Andrew Clair run for 21 yds to the BwGrn 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:32
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-5
3.6%
BOWLING GREEN Penalty, false start (Derek Downs) to the BwGrn 43Similar
Q1 11:32
1ST & 15
OWN 43
+7
3.5%
Matt McDonald run for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 11:32
2ND & 8
50
-5
3.6%
MCDONALD, Matt pass complete to ORTEGA-JONES, J for 6 yards to the UB44, out-of-bounds, PENALTY BGSU ineligible downfield on pass (GRANT, Jalen) 5 yards to the BGSU45, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 11:32
2ND & 13
OWN 45
+12
3.5%
Matt McDonald pass complete to Noah Massey for 12 yds to the Buff 43Similar
Q1 11:32
3RD & 1
OPP 43
+5
3.6%
Andrew Clair run for 5 yds to the Buff 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:32
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+3
3.6%
Andrew Clair run for 3 yds to the Buff 35Similar
Q1 11:32
2ND & 7
OPP 35
+13
3.6%
Matt McDonald pass complete to Tyrone Broden Jr. for 13 yds to the Buff 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:32
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-4
3.6%
Matt McDonald sacked by Malcolm Koonce for a loss of 4 yards to the Buff 26Similar
Q1 11:32
2ND & 14
OPP 26
+3
3.6%
Trevon Raymore run for 3 yds to the Buff 23Similar
Q1 11:32
3RD & 11
OPP 23
0
3.5%
Matt McDonald pass incomplete to Julian Ortega-JonesSimilar
Q1 6:49
4TH & 11
OPP 23
+40
4.6%
Nate Needham 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 7 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q1 6:42
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
4.7%
BOWLING GREEN Penalty, Defensive offside (5 Yards) to the Buff 33Similar
Q1 6:42
4TH & 8
OWN 35
0
4.8%
Evan Finegan punt for 36 yds , Jake Rogers returns for no gain to the BwGrn 29Similar
Q1 6:42
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
4.7%
Kevin Marks Jr. run for 3 yds to the Buff 36Similar
Q1 6:42
2ND & 7
OWN 36
-10
4.6%
PATTERSON, Jare rush for 9 yards to the UB45 (ANDERS, Darren;MITCHELL, C.), PENALTY UB illegal use of hands (GALL, Jacob) 10 yards to the UB26, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 6:42
2ND & 17
OWN 26
0
4.7%
Kyle Vantrease pass incomplete to Antonio NunnSimilar
Q1 6:42
3RD & 17
OWN 26
+9
4.8%
Kevin Marks Jr. run for 9 yds to the Buff 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 4MISSED FG
11 plays · 55 yds · 4:505% → 7%
Q1 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+7
5.2%
Andrew Clair run for 7 yds to the BwGrn 36Similar
Q1 4:45
2ND & 3
OWN 36
+3
5.4%
Andrew Clair run for 3 yds to the BwGrn 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+26
5.3%
Matt McDonald pass complete to Julian Ortega-Jones for 26 yds to the Buff 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:45
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
5.5%
Matt McDonald pass incomplete to Noah MasseySimilar
Q1 4:45
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+5
5.5%
Andrew Clair run for 5 yds to the Buff 30Similar
Q1 4:45
3RD & 5
OPP 30
+1
5.4%
Andrew Clair run for 1 yd to the Buff 29Similar
Q1 4:45
4TH & 4
OPP 29
+5
5.3%
Matt McDonald pass complete to Julian Ortega-Jones for 5 yds to the Buff 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:45
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+2
5.5%
Matt McDonald pass complete to Julian Ortega-Jones for 2 yds to the Buff 22Similar
Q1 4:45
2ND & 8
OPP 22
+2
5.5%
Trevon Raymore run for 2 yds to the Buff 20Similar
Q1 4:45
3RD & 6
OPP 20
+4
5.4%
Matt McDonald run for 4 yds to the Buff 16Similar
Q2 14:55
4TH & 2
OPP 16
+33
6.9%
Nate Needham 33 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 5TD
13 plays · 80 yds · 4:1893% → 94%
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
6.7%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Antonio Nunn for 7 yds to the Buff 27Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 3
OWN 27
+1
6.6%
Jaret Patterson run for 1 yd to the Buff 28Similar
Q2 14:55
3RD & 2
OWN 28
+3
6.7%
Jaret Patterson run for 3 yds to the Buff 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+7
6.6%
Jaret Patterson run for 7 yds to the Buff 38Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 3
OWN 38
+4
6.4%
Jaret Patterson run for 4 yds to the Buff 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+6
6.4%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Antonio Nunn for 6 yds to the Buff 48Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 4
OWN 48
+5
6.4%
Jaret Patterson run for 5 yds to the BwGrn 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
6.4%
Kyle Vantrease pass incomplete to Dominic JohnsonSimilar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+21
6.4%
Kevin Marks Jr. run for 21 yds to the BwGrn 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+15
6.2%
Kevin Marks Jr. run for 15 yds to the BwGrn 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+4
6.2%
Kevin Marks Jr. run for 4 yds to the BwGrn 7Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 6
OPP 7
+4
6.2%
Kevin Marks Jr. run for 4 yds to the BwGrn 3Similar
Q2 10:37
3RD & 2
OPP 3
+3
5.7%
Kevin Marks Jr. run for 3 yds for a TD (Alex McNulty KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q2 10:31
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+3
6.2%
Matt McDonald pass complete to Terion Stewart for 3 yds to the BwGrn 26Similar
Q2 10:31
2ND & 7
OWN 26
+4
6.2%
Matt McDonald pass complete to Quintin Morris for 4 yds to the BwGrn 30Similar
Q2 10:31
3RD & 3
OWN 30
+2
6.1%
Terion Stewart run for 2 yds to the BwGrn 32Similar
Q2 10:31
4TH & 1
OWN 32
0
6.1%
Matt Naranjo punt for 43 yds, downed at the Buff 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 7TD
17 plays · 75 yds · 7:3094% → 96%
Q2 8:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
6.4%
Jaret Patterson run for 12 yds to the Buff 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:48
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-5
6.2%
BUFFALO Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Buff 32Similar
Q2 8:48
1ST & 15
OWN 32
+14
6.4%
Jaret Patterson run for 14 yds to the Buff 46Similar
Q2 8:48
2ND & 1
OWN 46
+5
6.1%
Jaret Patterson run for 5 yds to the BwGrn 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:48
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-1
6.1%
Jaret Patterson run for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 8:48
2ND & 11
50
+9
6.1%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Antonio Nunn for 9 yds to the BwGrn 41Similar
Q2 8:48
3RD & 2
OPP 41
+2
6.2%
Jaret Patterson run for 2 yds to the BwGrn 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:48
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
6.1%
Jaret Patterson run for no gain to the BwGrn 39Similar
Q2 8:48
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+14
6.1%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Antonio Nunn for 14 yds to the BwGrn 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:20
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+12
7.2%
Kevin Marks Jr. run for 12 yds to the BwGrn 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:20
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-5
7.2%
BUFFALO Penalty, false start (Jack Klenk) to the BwGrn 18Similar
Q2 4:20
1ST & 15
OPP 18
+5
7.2%
Kevin Marks Jr. run for 5 yds to the BwGrn 13Similar
Q2 4:20
2ND & 10
OPP 13
+5
7.2%
Kevin Marks Jr. run for 5 yds to the BwGrn 8Similar
Q2 4:20
3RD & 5
OPP 8
+4
7.3%
Kevin Marks Jr. run for 4 yds to the BwGrn 4Similar
Q2 1:18
4TH & 1
OPP 4
+4
3.6%
Jaret Patterson run for 4 yds for a TD (Alex McNulty KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 8DOWNS
8 plays · 46 yds · 0:545% → 5%
Q2 1:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
4.7%
Matt McDonald run for 5 yds to the BwGrn 30Similar
Q2 1:18
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+33
4.9%
Matt McDonald pass complete to Noah Massey for 33 yds to the Buff 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:18
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+4
5.3%
Matt McDonald pass complete to Julian Ortega-Jones for 4 yds to the Buff 33Similar
Q2 0:24
2ND & 6
OPP 33
+4
5.4%
Matt McDonald run for 4 yds to the Buff 29Similar
Q2 0:24
3RD & 2
OPP 29
0
5.3%
Matt McDonald pass incomplete to Julian Ortega-JonesSimilar
Q2 0:24
4TH & 2
OPP 29
0
5.2%
Matt McDonald pass incomplete to Tyrone Broden Jr.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 9END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q2 0:08
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-1
3.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Buff 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · -13 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-6
4.6%
Matt McDonald sacked by Malcolm Koonce for a loss of 6 yards to the BwGrn 19Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 16
OWN 19
+2
4.6%
Andrew Clair run for 2 yds to the BwGrn 21Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 14
OWN 21
-9
4.5%
Matt McDonald sacked by George Wolo for a loss of 9 yards to the BwGrn 12Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 23
OWN 12
+27
4.5%
Matt Naranjo punt for 34 yds , Ron Cook Jr. returns for 27 yds to the BwGrn 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 11DOWNS
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q3 12:58
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+2
3.7%
Jaret Patterson run for 2 yds to the BwGrn 17Similar
Q3 12:58
2ND & 8
OPP 17
0
3.7%
Kyle Vantrease pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:58
3RD & 8
OPP 17
+6
3.8%
Jaret Patterson run for 6 yds to the BwGrn 11Similar
Q3 12:58
4TH & 2
OPP 11
0
4.1%
Kyle Vantrease pass incomplete to Kevin Marks Jr.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 12DOWNS
7 plays · 44 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q3 11:27
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+6
4.6%
Terion Stewart run for 6 yds to the BwGrn 17Similar
Q3 11:27
2ND & 4
OWN 17
+25
4.6%
Matt McDonald pass complete to Quintin Morris for 25 yds to the BwGrn 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:27
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+12
5.1%
Matt McDonald pass complete to Quintin Morris for 12 yds to the Buff 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:27
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
5.3%
Matt McDonald pass incomplete to Quintin Morris, broken up by Malcolm KoonceSimilar
Q3 11:27
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+1
5.2%
Matt McDonald run for 1 yd to the Buff 45Similar
Q3 11:27
3RD & 9
OPP 45
0
5.1%
Matt McDonald pass incomplete to Noah Massey, broken up by Kadofi WrightSimilar
Q3 11:27
4TH & 9
OPP 45
0
4.9%
Matt McDonald pass incomplete to Noah Massey, broken up by James PattersonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 13TD
8 plays · 55 yds · 3:4396% → 99%
Q3 9:43
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+8
3.8%
Jaret Patterson run for 8 yds to the BwGrn 47Similar
Q3 9:43
2ND & 2
OPP 47
+1
3.7%
Jaret Patterson run for 1 yd to the BwGrn 46Similar
Q3 9:43
3RD & 1
OPP 46
+3
3.7%
Jaret Patterson run for 3 yds to the BwGrn 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:43
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+18
3.8%
Jaret Patterson run for 18 yds to the BwGrn 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:43
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+4
3.6%
Jaret Patterson run for 4 yds to the BwGrn 21Similar
Q3 9:43
2ND & 6
OPP 21
+6
3.6%
Jaret Patterson run for 6 yds to the BwGrn 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:43
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
3.6%
Kyle Vantrease pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:00
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+15
0.6%
Jaret Patterson run for 15 yds for a TD (Alex McNulty KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 14INT
8 plays · 60 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q3 5:54
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+9
0.6%
Andrew Clair run for 9 yds to the BwGrn 35Similar
Q3 5:54
2ND & 1
OWN 35
+6
0.7%
Andrew Clair run for 6 yds to the BwGrn 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:54
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+27
0.7%
Matt McDonald pass complete to Julian Ortega-Jones for 27 yds to the Buff 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:54
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+8
0.7%
Jhaylin Embry run for 8 yds to the Buff 24Similar
Q3 5:54
2ND & 2
OPP 24
+10
0.8%
Matt McDonald pass complete to Noah Massey for 10 yds to the Buff 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:54
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
0.8%
Bryson Denley run for no gain to the Buff 14Similar
Q3 5:54
2ND & 10
OPP 14
0
0.8%
Matt McDonald pass intercepted, touchback. Marcus Fuqua return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 15TD
4 plays · 80 yds · 2:0599% → 100%
Q3 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
0.6%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Trevor Wilson for 4 yds to the Buff 24Similar
Q3 3:15
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+67
0.6%
Jaret Patterson run for 67 yds to the BwGrn 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+3
0.5%
Kevin Marks Jr. run for 3 yds to the BwGrn 6Similar
Q3 1:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
0.3%
Kyle Vantrease run for 6 yds for a TD (Alex McNulty KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 16TD
16 plays · 76 yds · 4:480% → 0%
Q3 1:06
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+6
0.4%
Andrew Clair run for 6 yds to the BwGrn 30Similar
Q3 1:06
2ND & 4
OWN 30
+3
0.4%
Andrew Clair run for 3 yds to the BwGrn 33Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 33
+3
0.3%
Andrew Clair run for 3 yds to the BwGrn 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
0.3%
Matt McDonald pass incomplete to Tyrone Broden Jr.Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+11
0.3%
Andrew Clair run for 11 yds to the BwGrn 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+9
0.4%
Bryson Denley run for 9 yds to the Buff 44Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 44
+2
0.4%
Bryson Denley run for 2 yds to the Buff 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+3
0.4%
Matt McDonald pass complete to Julian Ortega-Jones for 3 yds to the Buff 39Similar
Q4 12:55
2ND & 7
OPP 39
+15
0.2%
MCDONALD, Matt pass incomplete to KINSEY, Javonte, PENALTY UB pass interference (BROWN, E.J.) 15 yards to the UB24, 1ST DOWN BGSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:55
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
0.2%
Matt McDonald pass incomplete to Quintin MorrisSimilar
Q4 12:55
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+5
0.2%
Terion Stewart run for 5 yds to the Buff 19Similar
Q4 12:55
3RD & 5
OPP 19
+13
0.2%
Terion Stewart run for 13 yds to the Buff 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
0.2%
Terion Stewart run for 1 yd to the Buff 5Similar
Q4 11:18
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
0.3%
Terion Stewart run for 5 yds for a TD (Nate Needham KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 11:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
0.3%
Kevin Marks Jr. run for 5 yds to the Buff 30Similar
Q4 11:18
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-3
0.3%
Kevin Marks Jr. run for a loss of 3 yards to the Buff 27Similar
Q4 11:18
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
0.4%
Kevin Marks Jr. run for no gain to the Buff 27Similar
Q4 11:18
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
0.4%
Evan Finegan punt for 28 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BwGrn 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 18TD
10 plays · 55 yds · 4:150% → 3%
Q4 8:49
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+10
0.3%
Jhaylin Embry run for 10 yds to the Buff 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:49
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-8
0.3%
Matt McDonald sacked by Kyler Laing for a loss of 8 yards to the BwGrn 47Similar
Q4 8:49
2ND & 18
OWN 47
+7
0.3%
Matt McDonald pass complete to Andrew Clair for 7 yds to the Buff 46Similar
Q4 8:49
3RD & 11
OPP 46
+1
0.3%
Matt McDonald run for 1 yd to the Buff 45Similar
Q4 8:49
4TH & 10
OPP 45
+13
0.3%
Matt McDonald pass complete to Presley Motes for 13 yds to the Buff 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:49
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+6
0.3%
Bryson Denley run for 6 yds to the Buff 26Similar
Q4 8:49
2ND & 4
OPP 26
+3
0.3%
Bryson Denley run for 3 yds to the Buff 23Similar
Q4 8:49
3RD & 1
OPP 23
+2
0.3%
Terion Stewart run for 2 yds to the Buff 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:49
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+20
0.3%
Matt McDonald pass complete to Quintin Morris for 20 yds to the Buff 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
2.6%
Terion Stewart run for 1 yd for a TD (Nate Needham KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 19TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 2:2699% → 100%
Q4 4:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
1.5%
Jaret Patterson run for 8 yds to the Buff 33Similar
Q4 4:34
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+3
1.5%
Jaret Patterson run for 3 yds to the Buff 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:34
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
1.4%
Jaret Patterson run for 7 yds to the Buff 43Similar
Q4 2:08
2ND & 3
OWN 43
+57
0.1%
Jaret Patterson run for 57 yds for a TD (Alex McNulty KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 20END OF GAME
4 plays · 22 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 2:02
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+3
0.2%
Bryson Denley run for 3 yds to the BwGrn 26Similar
Q4 2:02
2ND & 7
OWN 26
+12
0.2%
Bryson Denley run for 12 yds to the BwGrn 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:02
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+7
0.2%
Terion Stewart run for 7 yds to the BwGrn 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 1:18
Jaret Patterson run for 4 yds for a TD (Alex McNulty KICK)
-3.9
TD · Q3 6:00
Jaret Patterson run for 15 yds for a TD (Alex McNulty KICK)
-3
TD · Q4 4:34
Terion Stewart run for 1 yd for a TD (Nate Needham KICK)
+2.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com