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TOL

Toledo 38 at Western Michigan 41

WMU
2020 · Week 11 · Nov 11, 2020 · Waldo Stadium
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Win probability · WMU
modelWMU aheadTOL aheadconfidence bandkey playWMU scoreTOL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 10:17 · Nick Mihalic punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Ronnie Blackmon at the Toled 9
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsOne-score game
+36.0+18.00−18.0−36.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 98Home team on offense−10.7Garbage-time factor−3.2Score differential−5.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−2.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.5One-score game+0.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 8:55: Kaleb Eleby pass complete to D'Wayne Eskridge for 47 yds for a TD (Thiago Kapps KICK) — WMU win probability +17.4 pts (now 51%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  2. TD · Q4 9:06: Kaleb Eleby pass complete to Skyy Moore for 16 yds for a TD (Thiago Kapps KICK) — WMU win probability +27.2 pts (now 48%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  3. TD · Q4 2:54: Bryant Koback run for 4 yds for a TD (Evan Davis KICK) — TOL win probability +16.1 pts (now 94%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 0:45: Kaleb Eleby run for 1 yd for a TD (Thiago Kapps PAT MISSED) — WMU win probability +31.0 pts (now 40%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
  5. TD · Q4 0:17: Kaleb Eleby pass complete to Jaylen Hall for 9 yds for a TD (Thiago Kapps KICK) — WMU win probability +66.1 pts (now 96%) (top driver: WMU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
WMU made the numbers' call on 8 of 8TOL made the numbers' call on 4 of 6
  1. Q1 12:42WMU 4th & 7 at WMU 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.6%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:12WMU 4th & 1 at TOL 1, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 53.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    53.1%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    52.4%−0.7
    94% to make
    Punt
    50.5%−2.7
    average punt
  3. Q2 10:45TOL 4th & 6 at WMU 37, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 45.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    45.0%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    44.5%−0.5
    40% to make
    Punt
    44.4%−0.6
    average punt
  4. Q2 9:30WMU 4th & 12 at midfield, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.7%−0.7
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.4%
    average punt
  5. Q2 6:44TOL 4th & 3 at WMU 17, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 46.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.6%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    46.0%−0.6
    80% to make
    Punt
    41.1%−5.6
    average punt
  6. Q2 4:42WMU 4th & 1 at WMU 40, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 52.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    53.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    51.2%−1.9
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:40WMU 4th & 18 at TOL 43, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.4%−0.7
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    36.9%−0.2
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    37.1%
    average punt
  8. Q3 12:55TOL 4th & 12 at TOL 33, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.1%−2.8
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.8%
    average punt
  9. Q3 10:17WMU 4th & 5 at WMU 40, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.0%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.2%
    average punt
  10. Q3 9:04TOL 4th & 7 at TOL 12, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.0%−2.0
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.0%
    average punt
  11. Q3 2:06WMU 4th & 10 at WMU 25, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.1%−2.4
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.4%
    average punt
  12. Q4 11:38TOL 4th & 6 at WMU 14, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 78.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.0%−0.6
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    77.5%
    84% to make
    Punt
    66.8%−10.7
    average punt
  13. Q4 3:25TOL 4th & 11 at WMU 15, up 3
    Numbers favored field goal by 3.7 ptsWent for it · 75.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    68.9%−3.7
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    72.6%
    83% to make
    Punt
    50.8%−21.9
    average punt
  14. Q4 2:00WMU 4th & 5 at WMU 35, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.1%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    6.0%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WMU made the numbers' call on 4 of 6TOL made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 9:18TOL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 6:12WMU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 2:54TOL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    47.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 0:00WMU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 3:04TOL Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 8:55WMU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    48.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    48.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 2:25TOL Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 9:06WMU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    36.2%−0.4
    97% to make
    Go for two
    36.6%
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 2:54TOL Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.5%−0.3
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 0:45WMU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Close callKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    13.5%−0.2
    97% to make
    Go for two
    13.7%
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 0:17WMU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.0%−2.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
WMUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 2:1349% → 49%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
49.2%
Skyy Moore run for no gain to the WMich 25Similar
Q1 14:10
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-3
49.3%
Sean Tyler run for a loss of 3 yards to the WMich 22Similar
Q1 13:30
3RD & 13
OWN 22
+6
49.4%
Kaleb Eleby pass complete to D'Wayne Eskridge for 6 yds to the WMich 28Similar
Q1 12:42
4TH & 7
OWN 28
+46
49.4%
Nick Mihalic punt for 46 yds , Ronnie Blackmon returns for a loss of 1 yard to the Toled 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 2TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 3:1750% → 52%
Q1 12:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+55
49.6%
Eli Peters pass complete to Isaiah Winstead for 55 yds to the WMich 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-1
49.3%
Bryant Koback run for a loss of 1 yard to the WMich 21Similar
Q1 11:20
2ND & 11
OPP 21
+12
49.4%
Eli Peters pass complete to Devin Maddox for 12 yds to the WMich 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
49.3%
Bryant Koback run for 5 yds to the WMich 4Similar
Q1 10:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
-5
49.3%
Bryant Koback run for a loss of 5 yards to the WMich 9Similar
Q1 9:18
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
47.6%
Eli Peters pass complete to Devin Maddox for 9 yds for a TD (Evan Davis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 3TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 2:5048% → 51%
Q1 9:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+56
48.1%
Kaleb Eleby pass complete to Skyy Moore for 56 yds to the Toled 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:00
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-5
48.8%
WESTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Toled 24Similar
Q1 8:35
1ST & 15
OPP 24
+8
48.7%
La'Darius Jefferson run for 8 yds to the Toled 16Similar
Q1 8:06
2ND & 7
OPP 16
+11
48.9%
La'Darius Jefferson run for 11 yds to the Toled 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
48.8%
La'Darius Jefferson run for 3 yds to the Toled 2Similar
Q1 7:13
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
48.8%
La'Darius Jefferson run for 1 yd to the Toled 1Similar
Q1 6:45
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
48.4%
La'Darius Jefferson run for no gain to the Toled 1Similar
Q1 6:12
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
51.1%
Kaleb Eleby run for 1 yd for a TD (Thiago Kapps KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 4TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:0650% → 55%
Q1 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
50.5%
Eli Peters pass complete to Devin Maddox for 4 yds to the Toled 29Similar
Q1 5:30
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+13
50.4%
Eli Peters pass complete to Bryant Koback for 13 yds to the Toled 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+8
49.9%
Eli Peters pass complete to Devin Maddox for 8 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 4:32
2ND & 2
50
+2
49.5%
Eli Peters run for 2 yds to the WMich 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+1
49.6%
Bryant Koback run for 1 yd to the WMich 47Similar
Q1 3:35
2ND & 9
OPP 47
-5
49.6%
TOLEDO Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Toled 48Similar
Q1 3:14
2ND & 14
OWN 48
+15
50.5%
Eli Peters pass incomplete to Hunter Helton for a 1ST down WESTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the WMich 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+35
49.2%
Shakif Seymour run for 33 yds to the WMich 4 for a 1ST down WESTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, Personal Foul (2 Yards) to the WMich 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
44.8%
Shakif Seymour run for 2 yds for a TD (Evan Davis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 5TD
8 plays · 60 yds · 2:5047% → 54%
Q1 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
47.4%
La'Darius Jefferson run for 3 yds to the WMich 43Similar
Q1 2:40
2ND & 7
OWN 43
0
47.5%
Kaleb Eleby pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:25
3RD & 7
OWN 43
+9
46.2%
Kaleb Eleby pass complete to D'Wayne Eskridge for 9 yds to the Toled 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+11
47.4%
Sean Tyler run for 11 yds to the Toled 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:45
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+4
47.4%
Sean Tyler run for 4 yds to the Toled 33Similar
Q1 1:00
2ND & 6
OPP 33
+12
47.9%
Kaleb Eleby pass complete to Jaylen Hall for 12 yds to the Toled 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+21
54.0%
Jaxson Kincaide run for 21 yds for a TD (Thiago Kapps KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 6DOWNS
11 plays · 32 yds · 4:1049% → 50%
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+6
50.6%
Eli Peters pass complete to Shakif Seymour for 6 yds to the Toled 37Similar
Q2 14:25
2ND & 4
OWN 37
+4
49.9%
Eli Peters run for 4 yds to the Toled 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-1
49.8%
Shakif Seymour run for a loss of 1 yard to the Toled 40Similar
Q2 13:35
2ND & 11
OWN 40
+19
50.4%
Eli Peters pass complete to Jamal Turner for 19 yds to the WMich 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-10
49.2%
Koback, Bryant rush for 3 yards to the WESTMICH38, PENALTY TOLEDO holding 10 yards to the TOLEDO49, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:30
1ST & 20
OWN 49
+1
50.3%
Eli Peters pass complete to Bryce Mitchell for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 12:00
2ND & 19
50
+5
50.3%
Bryant Koback run for 5 yds to the WMich 45Similar
Q2 11:10
3RD & 14
OPP 45
+8
51.0%
Eli Peters pass complete to Bryant Koback for 8 yds to the WMich 37Similar
Q2 10:45
4TH & 6
OPP 37
0
49.9%
Eli Peters pass incomplete to Devin MaddoxSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 7FUMBLE
5 plays · 13 yds · 1:0953% → 52%
Q2 10:39
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+15
53.1%
Eleby, Kaleb pass incomplete to Hall, Jaylen (McDonald, Chris), PENALTY TOLEDO roughing passer 15 yards to the TOLEDO48, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN WESTMICH.Similar
Q2 10:34
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
54.6%
Kaleb Eleby pass incomplete to Skyy MooreSimilar
Q2 10:26
2ND & 10
OPP 48
0
54.4%
Kaleb Eleby pass incomplete to Skyy MooreSimilar
Q2 10:00
3RD & 10
OPP 48
-2
53.2%
Kaleb Eleby pass complete to Sean Tyler for a loss of 2 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 9:30
4TH & 12
50
-2
51.7%
Nick Mihalic punt for 33 yds for a 1ST down , Ronnie Blackmon returns for a loss of 2 yards to the Toled 30 Ronnie Blackmon fumbled, recovered by Toled WESTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, Kick Catching Interference (-15 Yards) to the Toled 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 8FG
8 plays · 53 yds · 2:3150% → 55%
Q2 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+35
50.2%
Eli Peters pass complete to Bryce Mitchell for 35 yds to the WMich 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:01
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+4
47.6%
Eli Peters pass complete to Bryant Koback for 4 yds to the WMich 31Similar
Q2 8:48
2ND & 6
OPP 31
0
47.3%
Eli Peters pass incomplete to Jamal TurnerSimilar
Q2 8:35
3RD & 6
OPP 31
+7
48.5%
Eli Peters pass complete to Bryant Koback for 7 yds to the WMich 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:05
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
46.3%
Eli Peters pass incomplete to Danzel McKinley-LewisSimilar
Q2 7:52
2ND & 10
OPP 24
-21
46.5%
Eli Peters sacked by Ali Fayad for a loss of 21 yards to the WMich 45 Eli Peters fumbled, recovered by ToledSimilar
Q2 7:15
3RD & 31
OPP 45
+28
49.5%
Micah Kelly run for 28 yds to the WMich 17Similar
Q2 6:44
4TH & 3
OPP 17
+34
45.4%
Evan Davis 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 9DOWNS
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:5847% → 47%
Q2 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
47.3%
Kaleb Eleby run for no gain to the WMich 31Similar
Q2 6:00
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+6
46.9%
La'Darius Jefferson run for 6 yds to the WMich 37Similar
Q2 5:30
3RD & 4
OWN 37
+3
47.9%
La'Darius Jefferson run for 3 yds to the WMich 40Similar
Q2 4:42
4TH & 1
OWN 40
-1
47.4%
La'Darius Jefferson run for a loss of 1 yard to the WMich 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 10TD
5 plays · 39 yds · 1:3656% → 66%
Q2 4:40
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-5
43.8%
Peters, Eli pass incomplete to Maddox, Devin, PENALTY TOLEDO illegal shift 5 yards to the WESTMICH44, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 4:00
1ST & 15
OPP 44
+15
44.2%
Bryant Koback run for 15 yds to the WMich 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:50
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+12
42.4%
Eli Peters pass complete to Ronnie Blackmon for 12 yds to the WMich 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:30
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+7
42.3%
Eli Peters pass complete to Ronnie Blackmon for 7 yds to the WMich 10Similar
Q2 3:04
2ND & 3
OPP 10
+10
34.1%
Bryant Koback run for 10 yds for a TD (Evan Davis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 11PUNT
9 plays · 16 yds · 1:2038% → 36%
Q2 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+24
37.5%
Sean Tyler run for 24 yds to the Toled 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:30
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+9
39.3%
Sean Tyler run for 9 yds to the Toled 26Similar
Q2 2:15
2ND & 1
OPP 26
-15
39.2%
WESTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-15 Yards) to the Toled 41Similar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 16
OPP 41
+5
37.0%
Sean Tyler run for 5 yds to the Toled 36Similar
Q2 1:53
3RD & 11
OPP 36
-7
37.2%
Kaleb Eleby sacked by Devan Rogers for a loss of 7 yards to the Toled 43Similar
Q2 1:40
4TH & 18
OPP 43
0
35.5%
Nick Mihalic punt for 36 yds, downed at the Toled 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 12END OF HALF
4 plays · 16 yds · 1:2062% → 65%
Q2 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+5
38.0%
Bryant Koback run for 5 yds to the Toled 12Similar
Q2 0:53
2ND & 5
OWN 12
0
36.0%
Eli Peters pass incomplete to Bryce MitchellSimilar
Q2 0:50
3RD & 5
OWN 12
+5
36.8%
Micah Kelly run for 5 yds to the Toled 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+6
35.0%
Micah Kelly run for 6 yds to the Toled 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 13PUNT
8 plays · 9 yds · 1:5565% → 65%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+6
34.7%
Bryant Koback run for 6 yds to the Toled 30Similar
Q3 14:25
2ND & 4
OWN 30
0
33.7%
Eli Peters pass incomplete to Danzel McKinley-LewisSimilar
Q3 14:20
3RD & 4
OWN 30
+5
34.4%
Eli Peters pass complete to Danzel McKinley-Lewis for 5 yds to the Toled 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:48
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
33.5%
Eli Peters pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:45
2ND & 10
OWN 35
-2
33.7%
Bryant Koback run for a loss of 2 yards to the Toled 33Similar
Q3 13:06
3RD & 12
OWN 33
0
34.2%
Eli Peters pass incomplete to Micah KellySimilar
Q3 12:55
4TH & 12
OWN 33
0
34.6%
Bailey Flint punt for 45 yds, downed at the WMich 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 18 yds · 2:3332% → 30%
Q3 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+13
32.0%
Kaleb Eleby pass complete to Skyy Moore for 13 yds to the WMich 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
32.4%
Sean Tyler run for 1 yd to the WMich 36Similar
Q3 11:50
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+7
32.2%
Sean Tyler run for 7 yds to the WMich 43Similar
Q3 10:17
3RD & 2
OWN 43
-3
32.2%
Sean Tyler run for a loss of 3 yards to the WMich 40Similar
Q3 10:17
4TH & 5
OWN 40
0
30.3%
Nick Mihalic punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Ronnie Blackmon at the Toled 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:5668% → 67%
Q3 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 9
-3
32.2%
Bryant Koback run for a loss of 3 yards to the Toled 6Similar
Q3 9:29
2ND & 13
OWN 6
0
32.3%
Eli Peters pass incomplete to Bryce MitchellSimilar
Q3 9:15
3RD & 13
OWN 6
+6
33.0%
Eli Peters pass complete to Bryant Koback for 6 yds to the Toled 12Similar
Q3 9:04
4TH & 7
OWN 12
0
33.2%
Bailey Flint punt for 35 yds, downed at the Toled 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 16TD
1 play · 47 yds · 0:0051% → 51%
Q3 8:55
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+47
50.6%
Kaleb Eleby pass complete to D'Wayne Eskridge for 47 yds for a TD (Thiago Kapps KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 17TD
16 plays · 99 yds · 6:2555% → 77%
Q3 8:50
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+3
44.8%
Bryant Koback run for 3 yds to the Toled 4Similar
Q3 8:45
2ND & 7
OWN 4
0
45.1%
Eli Peters pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:00
3RD & 7
OWN 4
+7
46.3%
Eli Peters pass complete to Isaiah Winstead for 7 yds to the Toled 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+2
44.3%
Bryant Koback run for 2 yds to the Toled 13Similar
Q3 7:15
2ND & 8
OWN 13
+5
44.6%
Eli Peters pass complete to Micah Kelly for 5 yds to the Toled 18Similar
Q3 6:20
3RD & 3
OWN 18
+12
45.3%
Eli Peters pass complete to Micah Kelly for 12 yds to the Toled 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:58
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
43.3%
Eli Peters pass incomplete to Micah KellySimilar
Q3 5:50
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+1
43.8%
Eli Peters pass complete to Ronnie Blackmon for 1 yd to the Toled 31Similar
Q3 5:05
3RD & 9
OWN 31
+18
44.5%
Eli Peters pass complete to Jerjuan Newton for 18 yds to the Toled 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:55
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+20
39.5%
Eli Peters pass complete to Isaiah Winstead for 20 yds to the WMich 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:15
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+5
37.8%
Micah Kelly run for 5 yds to the WMich 26Similar
Q3 3:30
2ND & 5
OPP 26
+19
37.2%
Micah Kelly run for 19 yds to the WMich 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
37.0%
WESTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (5 Yards) to the WMich 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
21.8%
Micah Kelly run for 2 yds for a TD (Evan Davis KICK)Similar
Q3 2:25
1ST & -5
50
+15
23.5%
WESTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (15 Yards) to the WMich 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:1425% → 22%
Q3 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
24.7%
Kaleb Eleby pass incomplete to D'Wayne EskridgeSimilar
Q3 2:15
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
24.5%
Kaleb Eleby pass incomplete to D'Wayne EskridgeSimilar
Q3 2:06
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
23.2%
Kaleb Eleby pass incomplete to Jaylen HallSimilar
Q3 2:06
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+15
22.1%
Nick Mihalic punt for 46 yds , Ronnie Blackmon returns for 15 yds to the Toled 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 19MISSED FG
11 plays · 42 yds · 5:2277% → 79%
Q3 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-2
22.9%
Bryant Koback run for a loss of 2 yards to the Toled 42Similar
Q3 1:00
2ND & 12
OWN 45
+18
22.8%
Eli Peters pass complete to Danzel McKinley-Lewis for 3 yds to the WMich 45 for a 1ST down WESTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, Roughing Passer (15 Yards) to the WMich 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:30
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-5
21.9%
TOLEDO Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the WMich 45Similar
Q3 0:05
1ST & 15
OPP 45
+3
22.0%
Bryant Koback run for 3 yds to the WMich 42Similar
Q4 14:57
2ND & 12
OPP 42
+12
21.7%
Eli Peters pass complete to Bryant Koback for 12 yds to the WMich 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:15
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+8
21.3%
Bryant Koback run for 8 yds to the WMich 22Similar
Q4 13:45
2ND & 2
OPP 22
+4
20.9%
Bryant Koback run for 4 yds to the WMich 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:15
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+5
20.4%
Micah Kelly run for 5 yds to the WMich 13Similar
Q4 12:45
2ND & 5
OPP 13
-1
18.1%
Micah Kelly run for a loss of 1 yard to the WMich 14Similar
Q4 11:45
3RD & 6
OPP 14
0
18.2%
Eli Peters pass incomplete to Bryce MitchellSimilar
Q4 11:38
4TH & 6
OPP 14
+31
20.8%
Evan Davis 31 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Braden FiskeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 20TD
7 plays · 82 yds · 2:2820% → 48%
Q4 11:34
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+10
19.5%
Eleby, Kaleb pass incomplete to Eskridge, D'Wayne, PENALTY TOLEDO holding 10 yards to the WESTMICH28, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN WESTMICH.Similar
Q4 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+29
20.0%
Sean Tyler run for 29 yds to the Toled 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:53
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+9
22.8%
Sean Tyler run for 9 yds to the Toled 34Similar
Q4 10:17
2ND & 1
OPP 34
0
21.7%
Kaleb Eleby pass incomplete to D'Wayne Eskridge, broken up by Justin ClarkSimilar
Q4 10:00
3RD & 1
OPP 34
+7
19.5%
Sean Tyler run for 7 yds to the Toled 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:44
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+11
21.0%
Kaleb Eleby pass complete to D'Wayne Eskridge for 11 yds to the Toled 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:06
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
48.2%
Kaleb Eleby pass complete to Skyy Moore for 16 yds for a TD (Thiago Kapps KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 21TD
19 plays · 65 yds · 6:0167% → 94%
Q4 8:55
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+14
33.0%
Eli Peters pass complete to Isaiah Winstead for 14 yds to the Toled 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:28
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-4
29.8%
Eli Peters sacked by A.J. Thomas for a loss of 4 yards to the Toled 45 TOLEDO Penalty, Offensive Holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 8:00
2ND & 14
OWN 45
+9
32.4%
Eli Peters pass complete to Danzel McKinley-Lewis for 9 yds to the WMich 46Similar
Q4 7:40
3RD & 5
OPP 46
+11
29.9%
Eli Peters pass complete to Jerjuan Newton for 11 yds to the WMich 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:10
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+4
26.8%
Bryant Koback run for 4 yds to the WMich 31Similar
Q4 6:30
2ND & 6
OPP 31
+6
25.3%
Bryant Koback run for 6 yds to the WMich 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+7
22.4%
Bryant Koback run for 7 yds to the WMich 18Similar
Q4 5:15
2ND & 3
OPP 18
-1
22.1%
Bryant Koback run for a loss of 1 yard to the WMich 19Similar
Q4 4:20
3RD & 4
OPP 19
+5
22.9%
Eli Peters pass complete to Jamal Turner for 5 yds to the WMich 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:47
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-5
20.0%
TOLEDO Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the WMich 19Similar
Q4 3:45
1ST & 15
OPP 19
+2
20.4%
Bryant Koback run for 2 yds to the WMich 17Similar
Q4 3:35
2ND & 13
OPP 17
+2
18.6%
Bryant Koback run for 2 yds to the WMich 15Similar
Q4 3:29
3RD & 11
OPP 15
0
19.1%
Eli Peters pass incomplete to Jamal TurnerSimilar
Q4 3:25
4TH & 11
OPP 15
+11
21.7%
Eli Peters pass complete to Bryant Koback for 11 yds to the WMich 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
5.6%
Bryant Koback run for 4 yds for a TD (Evan Davis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 22TD
16 plays · 70 yds · 2:055% → 40%
Q4 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
5.2%
Kaleb Eleby pass complete to Sean Tyler for 2 yds to the WMich 32Similar
Q4 2:45
2ND & 8
OWN 32
+3
5.2%
Kaleb Eleby run for 3 yds to the WMich 35Similar
Q4 2:05
3RD & 5
OWN 35
0
5.0%
Kaleb Eleby pass incomplete to Skyy MooreSimilar
Q4 2:00
4TH & 5
OWN 35
+9
4.3%
Kaleb Eleby pass complete to D'Wayne Eskridge for 9 yds to the WMich 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:47
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+8
4.8%
Kaleb Eleby pass complete to Sean Tyler for 8 yds to the Toled 48Similar
Q4 1:40
2ND & 2
OPP 48
+5
5.4%
Kaleb Eleby pass complete to Sean Tyler for 5 yds to the Toled 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:35
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+5
5.1%
Kaleb Eleby pass complete to Sean Tyler for 5 yds to the Toled 38Similar
Q4 1:08
2ND & 5
OPP 38
+5
4.9%
Kaleb Eleby pass complete to Sean Tyler for 5 yds to the Toled 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:01
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+31
5.8%
Kaleb Eleby pass complete to D'Wayne Eskridge for 31 yds to the Toled 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
8.6%
Kaleb Eleby pass incomplete to Skyy Moore, broken up by Nate BauerSimilar
Q4 0:53
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
7.9%
Eleby, Kaleb pass incomplete to Moore, Skyy, PENALTY TOLEDO roughing passer 1 yards to the TOLEDO1, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN WESTMICH.Similar
Q4 0:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
8.6%
Eleby, Kaleb pass incomplete to Hall, Jaylen, PENALTY TOLEDO holding 0 yards to the TOLEDO1, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN WESTMICH.Similar
Q4 0:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
39.6%
Kaleb Eleby run for 1 yd for a TD (Thiago Kapps PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 23TD
5 plays · 51 yds · 0:2020% → 96%
Q4 0:37
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+11
20.1%
Kaleb Eleby pass complete to Sean Tyler for 11 yds to the Toled 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:31
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+13
21.9%
Kaleb Eleby pass complete to Sean Tyler for 13 yds to the Toled 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:20
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+18
30.0%
Kaleb Eleby pass complete to D'Wayne Eskridge for 18 yds to the Toled 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
96.1%
Kaleb Eleby pass complete to Jaylen Hall for 9 yds for a TD (Thiago Kapps KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 24Uncategorized
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0513% → 11%
Q4 0:08
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
87.4%
Eli Peters pass incomplete to Isaiah WinsteadSimilar
Q4 0:03
2ND & 10
OWN 36
0
87.8%
Eli Peters pass incomplete to Bryce Mitchell, broken up by A.J. ThomasSimilar
Q4 0:03
3RD & 10
OWN 36
-4
89.5%
Eli Peters pass intercepted Harrison Taylor return for 4 yds to the WMich 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:17
Kaleb Eleby pass complete to Jaylen Hall for 9 yds for a TD (Thiago Kapps KICK)
+66.1
TD · Q4 0:45
Kaleb Eleby run for 1 yd for a TD (Thiago Kapps PAT MISSED)
+31
TD · Q4 9:06
Kaleb Eleby pass complete to Skyy Moore for 16 yds for a TD (Thiago Kapps KICK)
+27.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com