Try the model
CMU

Central Michigan 40 at Northern Illinois 10

NIU
2020 · Week 11 · Nov 11, 2020 · Huskie Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · NIU
modelNIU aheadCMU aheadconfidence bandkey playNIU scoreCMU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDSAFETYTDFGTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 1:10 · Luke Elzinga punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Cole Tucker at the NoIll 26
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+57.5+28.80−28.8−57.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 35Home team on offense−2.9Score differential−1.1Pregame prior−13.7Garbage-time factor−1.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 11:33: Daniel Richardson pass complete to Dallas Dixon for 58 yds for a TD (Marshall Meeder KICK) — CMU win probability +1.2 pts (now 67%) (top driver: CMU has the ball).
  2. SAFETY · Q2 2:05: TEAM run for a loss of 21 yards for a SAFETY TEAM fumbled, recovered by NoIll for a SAFETY — CMU win probability +2.4 pts (now 73%) (top driver: NIU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 8:52: Kobe Lewis run for 1 yd for a TD (Marshall Meeder KICK) — CMU win probability +10.2 pts (now 86%) (top driver: CMU has the ball).
  4. FG · Q3 7:20: Marshall Meeder 40 yd FG GOOD — CMU win probability +4.7 pts (now 92%) (top driver: CMU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 1:52: Daniel Richardson pass complete to Lew Nichols III for 58 yds for a TD (Marshall Meeder KICK) — CMU win probability +3.3 pts (now 99%) (top driver: CMU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NIU made the numbers' call on 10 of 12CMU made the numbers' call on 8 of 10
  1. Q1 12:08NIU 4th & 9 at NIU 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.9%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.9%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:43NIU 4th & 8 at NIU 30, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.8%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.9%
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:56CMU 4th & 5 at NIU 49, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.5%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.5%
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:19NIU 4th & 3 at CMU 23, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 36.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    36.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    36.0%−0.3
    70% to make
    Punt
    32.9%−3.5
    average punt
  5. Q1 1:10CMU 4th & 4 at CMU 29, up 7
    Close callPunted · 64.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.5%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.4%−0.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:44NIU 4th & 10 at NIU 37, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.5%−0.7
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.1%
    average punt
  7. Q2 13:30NIU 4th & 10 at NIU 33, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.2%−1.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.5%
    average punt
  8. Q2 12:00CMU 4th & 1 at midfield, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 65.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    65.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    64.3%−1.4
    average punt
  9. Q2 7:45CMU 4th & 1 at NIU 27, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 67.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    67.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    65.8%−1.6
    62% to make
    Punt
    62.1%−5.4
    average punt
  10. Q2 6:33CMU 4th & 1 at NIU 6, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 67.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    67.5%
    69% to convert
    Field goal
    65.3%−2.2
    91% to make
    Punt
    60.0%−7.4
    average punt
  11. Q2 5:09NIU 4th & 4 at NIU 17, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.0%−0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.1%
    average punt
  12. Q2 4:56NIU 4th & 4 at NIU 17, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.0%−0.2
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.1%
    average punt
  13. Q2 3:42CMU 4th & 17 at NIU 46, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.2%−1.3
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    65.5%−1.0
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    66.5%
    average punt
  14. Q2 1:32CMU 4th & 17 at NIU 48, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.3%−0.9
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.2%
    average punt
  15. Q2 0:02NIU 4th & 3 at NIU 45, down 9
    Close callPunted · 30.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.9%−0.4
    average punt
  16. Q3 8:52CMU 4th & 1 at NIU 1, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 73.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    72.9%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    70.2%−2.7
    94% to make
    Punt
    63.0%−9.9
    average punt
  17. Q3 7:20CMU 4th & 4 at NIU 22, up 16
    Close callKicked a field goal · 85.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.6%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    84.3%−0.3
    72% to make
    Punt
    77.7%−6.9
    average punt
  18. Q3 5:12CMU 4th & 2 at NIU 19, up 19
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 92.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    93.0%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    92.1%−0.9
    77% to make
    Punt
    86.1%−6.9
    average punt
  19. Q3 2:29NIU 4th & 8 at NIU 46, down 19
    Close callWent for it · 9.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.5%−0.8
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    10.3%
    average punt
  20. Q3 0:35NIU 4th & 9 at NIU 26, down 26
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.0%−0.4
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.5%
    average punt
  21. Q4 10:00NIU 4th & 7 at CMU 35, down 33
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.3%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    0.3%−<0.1
    45% to make
    Punt
    0.3%−<0.1
    average punt
  22. Q4 8:23NIU 4th & 16 at CMU 27, down 33
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−0.1
    15% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    0.3%
    62% to make
    Punt
    0.1%−0.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NIU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1CMU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 11:33CMU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 8:52CMU Touchdown, up 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 1:52CMU Touchdown, up 25 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 14:17CMU Touchdown, up 32 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 5:22CMU Touchdown, up 36 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 0:11NIU Touchdown, down 31 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NIUDrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 14 yds · 2:3633% → 34%
Q1 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
32.8%
Erin Collins run for 5 yds to the NoIll 31Similar
Q1 14:00
2ND & 5
OWN 31
+8
33.1%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Cole Tucker for 8 yds to the NoIll 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-1
33.3%
Erin Collins run for a loss of 1 yard to the NoIll 38Similar
Q1 13:05
2ND & 11
OWN 38
+10
33.5%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Tyrice Richie for 10 yds to the NoIll 48Similar
Q1 12:45
3RD & 1
OWN 48
-3
33.8%
Erin Collins run for a loss of 3 yards to the NoIll 45Similar
Q1 12:15
4TH & 4
OWN 45
-5
33.9%
NORTHERNIL Penalty, False Start (Marques Cox) to the NoIll 40Similar
Q1 12:08
4TH & 9
OWN 40
0
33.7%
Matt Ference punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Kalil Pimpleton at the CMich 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 2TD
2 plays · 76 yds · 0:2466% → 67%
Q1 11:57
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+18
33.9%
Kobe Lewis run for 18 yds to the CMich 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:33
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+58
32.7%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Dallas Dixon for 58 yds for a TD (Marshall Meeder KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:2733% → 33%
Q1 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+1
33.0%
Harrison Waylee run for 1 yd to the NoIll 29Similar
Q1 10:15
2ND & 9
OWN 29
-10
33.1%
Harrison Waylee run for a loss of 10 yards to the NoIll 19 Harrison Waylee fumbled, recovered by NoIll Harrison WayleeSimilar
Q1 10:00
3RD & 19
OWN 19
+11
32.9%
Rondarius Gregory run for 11 yds to the NoIll 30Similar
Q1 9:43
4TH & 8
OWN 30
0
32.8%
Matt Ference punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Kalil Pimpleton at the CMich 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 20 yds · 1:3467% → 67%
Q1 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+15
33.0%
Daniel Richardson run for 15 yds to the CMich 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:14
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
32.7%
Daniel Richardson pass incomplete to JaCorey SullivanSimilar
Q1 8:50
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+3
32.5%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to JaCorey Sullivan for 3 yds to the CMich 49Similar
Q1 8:25
3RD & 7
OWN 49
+2
32.6%
Kobe Lewis run for 2 yds to the NoIll 49Similar
Q1 7:56
4TH & 5
OPP 49
0
32.8%
Luke Elzinga punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Cole Tucker at the NoIll 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 5DOWNS
11 plays · 66 yds · 5:2633% → 34%
Q1 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 11
-3
33.0%
Erin Collins run for a loss of 3 yards to the NoIll 8Similar
Q1 7:00
2ND & 13
OWN 8
+15
33.1%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Cole Tucker for 15 yds to the NoIll 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
33.2%
Ross Bowers pass incomplete to Cole TuckerSimilar
Q1 6:00
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+4
33.1%
Erin Collins run for 4 yds to the NoIll 27Similar
Q1 5:45
3RD & 6
OWN 27
+6
33.0%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Trayvon Rudolph for 6 yds to the NoIll 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:02
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+17
33.4%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Tyrice Richie for 17 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:40
1ST & 10
50
+20
34.3%
Erin Collins run for 20 yds to the CMich 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:50
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+4
35.0%
Erin Collins run for 4 yds to the CMich 26Similar
Q1 3:20
2ND & 6
OPP 26
+4
35.1%
Tyrice Richie run for 4 yds to the CMich 22Similar
Q1 2:45
3RD & 2
OPP 22
-1
34.7%
Erin Collins run for a loss of 1 yard to the CMich 23Similar
Q1 2:19
4TH & 3
OPP 23
0
33.7%
Ross Bowers pass incomplete to Erin CollinsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:5867% → 67%
Q1 2:08
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+5
33.0%
Darius Bracy run for 5 yds to the CMich 28Similar
Q1 2:00
2ND & 5
OWN 28
+1
32.6%
Kobe Lewis run for 1 yd to the CMich 29Similar
Q1 1:45
3RD & 4
OWN 29
0
32.7%
Daniel Richardson pass incomplete to JaCorey SullivanSimilar
Q1 1:10
4TH & 4
OWN 29
0
33.4%
Luke Elzinga punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Cole Tucker at the NoIll 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 11 yds · 1:1633% → 32%
Q1 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+1
33.2%
Harrison Waylee run for 1 yd to the NoIll 27Similar
Q1 0:45
2ND & 9
OWN 27
+10
33.1%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Tyrice Richie for 10 yds to the NoIll 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
33.5%
Ross Bowers pass incomplete to Messiah TravisSimilar
Q2 14:57
2ND & 10
OWN 37
0
33.4%
Ross Bowers pass incomplete to Cole TuckerSimilar
Q2 14:50
3RD & 10
OWN 37
0
32.8%
Ross Bowers pass incomplete to Erin CollinsSimilar
Q2 14:44
4TH & 10
OWN 37
0
32.4%
Matt Ference punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Kalil Pimpleton at the CMich 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 8INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0067% → 67%
Q2 14:35
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
32.6%
Daniel Richardson pass intercepted Jordan Gandy return for no gain to the NoIll 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:5533% → 32%
Q2 14:25
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
33.4%
Ross Bowers pass incomplete to Cole TuckerSimilar
Q2 14:00
2ND & 10
OWN 33
0
33.3%
Erin Collins run for no gain to the NoIll 33Similar
Q2 13:45
3RD & 10
OWN 33
0
32.7%
Ross Bowers pass incomplete to Cole TuckerSimilar
Q2 13:30
4TH & 10
OWN 33
0
32.4%
Matt Ference punt for 26 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the CMich 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 10DOWNS
15 plays · 48 yds · 6:5268% → 70%
Q2 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+6
31.7%
Lew Nichols III run for 6 yds to the CMich 47Similar
Q2 13:00
2ND & 4
OWN 47
+1
31.7%
Lew Nichols III run for 1 yd to the CMich 48Similar
Q2 12:45
3RD & 3
OWN 48
+2
31.9%
Lew Nichols III run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 12:00
4TH & 1
50
+2
32.3%
Lew Nichols III run for 2 yds to the NoIll 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
31.3%
Darius Bracy run for 2 yds to the NoIll 46Similar
Q2 10:00
2ND & 8
OPP 46
+10
31.3%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Tyrone Scott for 10 yds to the NoIll 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:45
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+1
31.0%
Kobe Lewis run for 1 yd to the NoIll 35Similar
Q2 9:00
2ND & 9
OPP 35
+1
30.8%
Kobe Lewis run for 1 yd to the NoIll 34Similar
Q2 8:00
3RD & 8
OPP 34
+7
30.2%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Kalil Pimpleton for 7 yds to the NoIll 27Similar
Q2 7:45
4TH & 1
OPP 27
+2
30.6%
Kobe Lewis run for 2 yds to the NoIll 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+10
29.3%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to JaCorey Sullivan for 10 yds to the NoIll 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:55
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+3
29.3%
Darius Bracy run for 3 yds to the NoIll 12Similar
Q2 6:40
2ND & 7
OPP 12
+5
29.3%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Kalil Pimpleton for 5 yds to the NoIll 7Similar
Q2 6:35
3RD & 2
OPP 7
+1
29.7%
Lew Nichols III run for 1 yd to the NoIll 6Similar
Q2 6:33
4TH & 1
OPP 6
-5
30.5%
Daniel Richardson sacked by Kyle Pugh and Jordan Hansen for a loss of 5 yards to the NoIll 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:2432% → 31%
Q2 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+5
31.8%
Erin Collins run for 5 yds to the NoIll 16Similar
Q2 5:20
2ND & 5
OWN 16
+1
31.9%
Erin Collins run for 1 yd to the NoIll 17Similar
Q2 5:09
3RD & 4
OWN 17
0
31.0%
Ross Bowers pass incomplete to Trayvon RudolphSimilar
Q2 5:09
4TH & 4
OWN 17
+28
30.5%
Matt Ference punt for 46 yds , Kalil Pimpleton returns for 28 yds to the NoIll 35Similar
Q2 4:56
4TH & 4
OWN 17
+24
30.5%
Matt Ference punt for 46 yds , Kalil Pimpleton returns for 24 yds to the NoIll 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · -7 yds · 0:1871% → 68%
Q2 4:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-11
29.2%
Daniel Richardson sacked by Michael Kennedy for a loss of 11 yards to the 50 yard line Daniel Richardson fumbled, forced by Michael Kennedy, recovered by CMich Derek Smith , return for 0 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 3:50
2ND & 21
50
+4
30.1%
Kobe Lewis run for 4 yds to the NoIll 46Similar
Q2 3:45
3RD & 17
OPP 46
0
30.9%
Daniel Richardson pass incomplete to Kobe LewisSimilar
Q2 3:42
4TH & 17
OPP 46
0
31.9%
Luke Elzinga punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Cole Tucker at the NoIll 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 13SF
5 plays · -15 yds · 1:2532% → 27%
Q2 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+5
31.7%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Daniel Crawford for 5 yds to the NoIll 20Similar
Q2 2:25
2ND & 5
OWN 20
+1
31.6%
Erin Collins run for 1 yd to the NoIll 21Similar
Q2 2:10
3RD & 4
OWN 21
0
29.6%
Ross Bowers pass incomplete to Trayvon RudolphSimilar
Q2 2:05
4TH & 4
OWN 21
0
27.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 21 yards for a SAFETY TEAM fumbled, recovered by NoIll for a SAFETYSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 14PUNT
6 plays · -7 yds · 0:2474% → 71%
Q2 1:56
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
26.1%
Daniel Richardson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:53
2ND & 10
OPP 41
0
26.4%
Daniel Richardson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:38
3RD & 10
OPP 41
-7
26.6%
Daniel Richardson sacked by Kyle Pugh for a loss of 7 yards to the NoIll 48Similar
Q2 1:32
4TH & 17
OPP 48
0
28.9%
Luke Elzinga punt for 25 yds, fair catch by Cole Tucker at the NoIll 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · 22 yds · 1:2328% → 25%
Q2 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+15
27.7%
Bowers, Ross pass pass intercepted by Edwards, Brian at the CENTMICH42, Edwards, Brian return 0 yards to the CENTMICH42, PENALTY CENTMICH roughing passer 15 yards to the NORTHERNIL38, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN NORTHERNIL.Similar
Q2 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
28.7%
Tyrice Richie run for 1 yd to the NoIll 39Similar
Q2 0:59
2ND & 9
OWN 39
+7
28.6%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Tyrice Richie for 7 yds to the NoIll 46Similar
Q2 0:45
3RD & 2
OWN 46
-1
28.9%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Erin Collins for a loss of 1 yard to the NoIll 45Similar
Q2 0:02
4TH & 3
OWN 45
0
25.0%
Matt Ference punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Kalil Pimpleton at the CMich 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 16END OF HALF
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0072% → 72%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 12
-2
27.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the CMich 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 17TD
14 plays · 94 yds · 5:2371% → 86%
Q3 14:15
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+3
28.7%
Kobe Lewis run for 3 yds to the CMich 9Similar
Q3 14:00
2ND & 7
OWN 9
+17
28.9%
Kobe Lewis run for 17 yds to the CMich 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:43
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+9
27.7%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Dallas Dixon for 9 yds to the CMich 35Similar
Q3 13:15
2ND & 1
OWN 35
+5
26.8%
Lew Nichols III run for 5 yds to the CMich 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-10
26.1%
Nichols III, Lew rush for 30 yards to the NORTHERNIL30, PENALTY CENTMICH holding (Buczkowski, Hunter) 10 yards to the CENTMICH30, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 12:40
1ST & 20
OWN 30
+1
27.8%
Kobe Lewis run for 1 yd to the CMich 31Similar
Q3 12:05
2ND & 19
OWN 31
+11
28.1%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Kalil Pimpleton for 11 yds to the CMich 42Similar
Q3 11:00
3RD & 8
OWN 42
+9
26.5%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Kalil Pimpleton for 9 yds to the NoIll 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:54
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+43
25.7%
Darius Bracy run for 43 yds to the NoIll 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
25.0%
Kobe Lewis run for no gain to the NoIll 6Similar
Q3 9:35
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
24.7%
Darius Bracy run for 2 yds to the NoIll 4Similar
Q3 9:15
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
24.5%
Kobe Lewis run for 3 yds to the NoIll 1Similar
Q3 8:52
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
14.3%
Kobe Lewis run for 1 yd for a TD (Marshall Meeder KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 18FG
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:1887% → 92%
Q3 8:38
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
12.9%
Daniel Richardson pass incomplete to Kalil PimpletonSimilar
Q3 8:27
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+5
13.1%
Lew Nichols III run for 5 yds to the NoIll 23Similar
Q3 8:00
3RD & 5
OPP 23
+1
12.8%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Lew Nichols III for 1 yd to the NoIll 22Similar
Q3 7:20
4TH & 4
OPP 22
+40
8.1%
Marshall Meeder 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 19FUMBLE
3 plays · 2 yds · 0:0813% → 12%
Q3 7:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
12.5%
Ross Bowers pass incomplete to Cole TuckerSimilar
Q3 7:06
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
12.3%
Erin Collins run for 2 yds to the NoIll 27 Erin Collins fumbled, forced by Mohamed Diallo, recovered by CMich Mohamed DialloSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 20DOWNS
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:1893% → 93%
Q3 6:30
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
6.8%
Kobe Lewis run for no gain to the NoIll 27Similar
Q3 6:00
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+2
6.7%
Lew Nichols III run for 2 yds to the NoIll 25Similar
Q3 5:45
3RD & 8
OPP 25
+6
6.8%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Dallas Dixon for 6 yds to the NoIll 19Similar
Q3 5:12
4TH & 2
OPP 19
+1
7.0%
Kobe Lewis run for 1 yd to the NoIll 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 21DOWNS
7 plays · 34 yds · 2:1611% → 9%
Q3 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-1
11.3%
Harrison Waylee run for a loss of 1 yard to the NoIll 17Similar
Q3 4:25
2ND & 11
OWN 17
+3
10.2%
Harrison Waylee run for 3 yds to the NoIll 20Similar
Q3 3:45
3RD & 8
OWN 20
+24
10.0%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Cole Tucker for 24 yds to the NoIll 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:40
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
10.9%
Ross Bowers pass incomplete to Harrison WayleeSimilar
Q3 3:25
2ND & 10
OWN 44
0
10.6%
Ross Bowers pass incomplete to Cole TuckerSimilar
Q3 3:00
3RD & 10
OWN 44
+2
9.9%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Daniel Crawford for 2 yds to the NoIll 46Similar
Q3 2:29
4TH & 8
OWN 46
+6
9.1%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Cole Tucker for 6 yds to the CMich 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 22TD
3 plays · 52 yds · 0:3795% → 99%
Q3 2:29
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-15
4.6%
CENTRAL MICH Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the CMich 33Similar
Q3 2:00
1ST & 25
OWN 33
+9
4.6%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Tyrone Scott for 9 yds to the CMich 42Similar
Q3 1:52
2ND & 16
OWN 42
+58
1.4%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Lew Nichols III for 58 yds for a TD (Marshall Meeder KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 23PUNT
6 plays · 1 yds · 1:052% → 1%
Q3 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
1.6%
Ross Bowers pass incomplete to Trayvon RudolphSimilar
Q3 1:30
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-10
1.4%
Bowers, Ross pass incomplete to Rudolph, Trayvon, PENALTY NORTHERNIL holding 10 yards to the NORTHERNIL15, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 1:25
2ND & 20
OWN 15
0
1.3%
Ross Bowers pass incomplete to Dennis RobinsonSimilar
Q3 1:10
3RD & 20
OWN 15
+11
1.4%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Tyrice Richie for 11 yds to the NoIll 26Similar
Q3 0:35
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
1.4%
Matt Ference punt for 39 yds, downed at the CMich 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 24TD
3 plays · 65 yds · 1:0399% → 99%
Q3 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+25
1.3%
Kalil Pimpleton run for 25 yds to the NoIll 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:35
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+4
1.1%
Kobe Lewis run for 4 yds to the NoIll 36Similar
Q4 14:17
2ND & 6
OPP 36
+36
0.6%
Lew Nichols III run for 36 yds for a TD (Marshall Meeder KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 25FG
14 plays · 33 yds · 5:471% → 0%
Q4 14:10
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
0.5%
Harrison Waylee run for 1 yd to the NoIll 41Similar
Q4 13:40
2ND & 9
OWN 41
-5
0.5%
NORTHERNIL Penalty, False Start (Logan Zschernitz) to the NoIll 36Similar
Q4 13:10
2ND & 14
OWN 36
-3
0.4%
Rodney Thompson sacked by Jacques Bristol for a loss of 3 yards to the NoIll 33Similar
Q4 12:40
3RD & 17
OWN 47
+29
0.4%
Rodney Thompson run for 14 yds to the CMich 47 for a 1ST down CENTRAL MICH Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the CMich 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:05
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-5
0.4%
Rodney Thompson run for a loss of 5 yards to the CMich 43Similar
Q4 11:20
2ND & 15
OPP 43
+7
0.3%
Rodney Thompson run for 7 yds to the CMich 36Similar
Q4 10:40
3RD & 8
OPP 36
+1
0.3%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Tyrice Richie for 1 yd to the CMich 35Similar
Q4 10:00
4TH & 7
OPP 35
+14
0.3%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Tyrice Richie for 14 yds to the CMich 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:30
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-10
0.3%
Bowers, Ross pass complete to McCray, Fabian for 18 yards to the CENTMICH3, PENALTY NORTHERNIL holding 10 yards to the CENTMICH31, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:07
1ST & 20
OPP 31
0
0.3%
Ross Bowers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:03
2ND & 20
OPP 31
0
0.3%
Ross Bowers pass incomplete to Harrison WayleeSimilar
Q4 8:40
3RD & 20
OPP 31
+4
0.3%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Daniel Crawford for 4 yds to the CMich 27Similar
Q4 8:23
4TH & 16
OPP 27
+45
0.3%
John Richardson 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 26TD
6 plays · 53 yds · 2:38100% → 100%
Q4 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-1
0.3%
Lew Nichols III run for a loss of 1 yard to the CMich 46Similar
Q4 7:30
2ND & 11
OWN 46
+12
0.3%
Zahir Swann run for 12 yds to the NoIll 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:40
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+9
0.2%
Lew Nichols III run for 9 yds to the NoIll 33Similar
Q4 5:50
2ND & 1
OPP 33
+23
0.2%
Lew Nichols III run for 23 yds to the NoIll 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
0.2%
Ty Brock run for 10 yds for a TD (Marshall Meeder KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 27TD
11 plays · 73 yds · 4:440% → 0%
Q4 4:55
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+8
0.1%
Harrison Waylee run for 8 yds to the NoIll 35Similar
Q4 4:15
2ND & 2
OWN 35
+2
0.1%
Harrison Waylee run for 2 yds to the NoIll 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+9
0.1%
Harrison Waylee run for 9 yds to the NoIll 46Similar
Q4 2:45
2ND & 1
OWN 46
+9
0.1%
Harrison Waylee run for 9 yds to the CMich 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:30
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+5
0.1%
Erin Collins run for 5 yds to the CMich 40Similar
Q4 1:00
2ND & 5
OPP 40
+4
0.1%
Erin Collins run for 4 yds to the CMich 36Similar
Q4 0:35
3RD & 1
OPP 36
0
0.1%
Andrew Haidet pass incomplete to Fabian McCraySimilar
Q4 0:17
4TH & 1
OPP 36
+5
0.1%
CENTRAL MICH Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the CMich 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:11
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+31
0.1%
Andrew Haidet pass complete to Dennis Robinson for 31 yds for a TD (John Richardson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 28END OF 4TH QUARTER
2 plays · -5 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
0.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the CMich 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 8:52
Kobe Lewis run for 1 yd for a TD (Marshall Meeder KICK)
-10.2
FG · Q3 7:20
Marshall Meeder 40 yd FG GOOD
-4.7
TD · Q3 1:52
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Lew Nichols III for 58 yds for a TD (Marshall Meeder KICK)
-3.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com