2020 · Week 11 · Nov 10, 2020 · Doyt L. Perry Stadium
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Win probability · BGSU
modelBGSU aheadKENT aheadconfidence bandkey playBGSU scoreKENT score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 6:10 · Matt McDonald pass incomplete to Tyrone Broden Jr.
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 2:54: Matt McDonald run for 2 yds for a TD, (Nate Needham KICK) — BGSU win probability +3.5 pts (now 17%) (top driver: BGSU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 14:14: Dustin Crum pass complete to Ja'Shaun Poke for 16 yds for a TD, (Matthew Trickett KICK) — KENT win probability +2.7 pts (now 87%) (top driver: KENT has the ball).
- TD · Q2 10:06: Dustin Crum pass complete to Isaiah McKoy for 32 yds for a TD, (Matthew Trickett KICK) — KENT win probability +3.5 pts (now 89%) (top driver: KENT has the ball).
- TD · Q2 5:28: Marquez Cooper run for 2 yds for a TD, (Matthew Trickett KICK) — KENT win probability +3.1 pts (now 93%) (top driver: KENT has the ball).
- TD · Q2 1:52: Dustin Crum pass complete to Ja'Shaun Poke for 55 yds for a TD, (Matthew Trickett KICK) — KENT win probability +2.1 pts (now 95%) (top driver: KENT has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
BGSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 10KENT made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
- Q1 12:37KENT 4th & 2 at BGSU 10, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 88.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call88.4%55% to convertField goal88.3%−0.188% to makePunt87.9%−0.5average punt
- Q1 11:13BGSU 4th & 10 at KENT 12, down 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 11.7% before the snapGo for it11.6%−0.125% to convertField goalTheir call11.7%86% to makePunt11.2%−0.5average punt
- Q1 11:13KENT 4th & 1 at BGSU 41, up 4Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 88.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call88.0%70% to convertField goal87.8%−0.232% to makePunt87.8%−0.2average punt
- Q1 5:40KENT 4th & 4 at BGSU 22, up 4Close callKicked a field goal · 85.9% before the snapGo for it85.9%47% to convertField goalTheir call85.8%−0.172% to makePunt84.7%−1.2average punt
- Q2 14:14BGSU 4th & 6 at KENT 34, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 15.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call15.3%40% to convertField goal15.2%−0.247% to makePunt14.9%−0.5average punt
- Q2 10:06BGSU 4th & 7 at BGSU 43, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.3% before the snapGo for it12.1%−0.337% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call12.4%average punt
- Q2 8:54KENT 4th & 1 at BGSU 36, up 14Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 88.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call88.3%71% to convertField goal86.9%−1.442% to makePunt86.7%−1.6average punt
- Q2 5:28BGSU 4th & 17 at BGSU 18, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.8% before the snapGo for it7.2%−0.613% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call7.8%average punt
- Q2 0:03KENT 4th & 6 at BGSU 29, up 28Close callKicked a field goal · 97.1% before the snapGo for it97.0%40% to convertField goalTheir call97.0%−<0.158% to makePunt96.7%−0.3average punt
- Q3 14:54BGSU 4th & 11 at BGSU 34, down 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.8% before the snapGo for it1.7%−0.126% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.9%average punt
- Q3 13:46KENT 4th & 12 at KENT 1, up 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.3% before the snapGo for it97.1%−0.219% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call97.3%average punt
- Q3 12:38BGSU 4th & 7 at KENT 40, down 28Close callPunted · 2.3% before the snapGo for it2.3%37% to convertField goal2.3%−0.134% to makePuntTheir call2.3%−<0.1average punt
- Q3 10:42KENT 4th & 12 at KENT 18, up 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.9% before the snapGo for it97.8%−0.122% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call97.9%average punt
- Q3 9:55BGSU 4th & 7 at midfield, down 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.8% before the snapGo for it1.8%−<0.137% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.8%average punt
- Q3 5:28BGSU 4th & 4 at BGSU 45, down 35Close callPunted · 0.8% before the snapGo for it0.8%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.8%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 14:57KENT 4th & 5 at BGSU 5, up 35Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.4% before the snapGo for it99.4%−<0.133% to convertField goalTheir call99.4%92% to makePunt98.9%−0.5average punt
- Q4 14:57BGSU 4th & 10 at KENT 29, down 38Close callWent for it · 0.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.3%−0.129% to convertField goal0.3%58% to makePunt0.0%−0.3average punt
- Q4 6:10BGSU 4th & 16 at KENT 41, down 38Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.1%−<0.116% to convertField goal0.2%−<0.132% to makePunt0.2%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BGSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3KENT made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
- Q1 12:37KENT Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call88.6%97% to makeGo for two88.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 2:54BGSU Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call16.6%97% to makeGo for two16.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 14:14KENT Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call84.4%97% to makeGo for two84.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 10:06KENT Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call86.8%97% to makeGo for two86.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 5:28KENT Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call91.4%97% to makeGo for two91.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 1:52KENT Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call96.3%97% to makeGo for two96.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 5:28KENT Touchdown, up 34 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.2%97% to makeGo for two99.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 9:31BGSU Touchdown, down 32 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call0.4%97% to makeGo for two0.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 6:10KENT Touchdown, up 37 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 1:35KENT Touchdown, up 44 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%−<0.197% to makeGo for two99.9%45% to convert
- Q4 0:41BGSU Touchdown, down 39 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call0.1%97% to makeGo for two0.1%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartKENTDrive 1TD9 plays · 75 yds · 2:2390% → 89%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
10.3%
CRUM, Dustin pass incomplete to WILLIAMS, Mark, PENALTY KENTST ineligible downfield on pass (GREGOIRE, Adam) 5 yards to the KENTST20, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+50
10.3%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Dante Cephas for 50 yds to the BwGrn 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:37
4TH & 2
OPP 10
+10
10.8%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Isaiah McKoy for 10 yds for a TD BOWLING GREEN Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined, (Matthew Trickett KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 2FG6 plays · 0 yds · 1:1311% → 12%
Q1 12:26
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-15
11.1%
RAYMORE, Trevon rush for 1 yard to the KENTST11 (CLARK, Dean), PENALTY BGSU illegal block 15 yards to the KENTST27, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 3FG23 plays · 53 yds · 5:3388% → 88%
Q1 11:13
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+2
11.6%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Ja'Shaun Poke for 12 yds to the KntSt 35 KENT ST Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the KntSt 25Similar
Q1 11:13
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
11.6%
BOWLING GREEN Penalty, offside defense (5 Yards) to the KntSt 30Similar
Q1 11:13
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+7
11.5%
CRUM, Dustin pass incomplete, PENALTY BGSU pass interference (BIGGERS, Caleb) 7 yards to the KENTST37, 1ST DOWN KENTST, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 11:13
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+9
11.5%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Isaac Vance for 9 yds to the KntSt 46Similar
Q1 11:13
2ND & 1
OWN 46
-10
11.5%
CRUM, Dustin rush for 2 yards to the KENTST48 (DABNEY, Sy), PENALTY KENTST holding (DIABY, Sekou) 10 yards to the KENTST36, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 11:13
2ND & 16
OWN 44
+15
11.6%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Isaac Vance for 15 yds to the BwGrn 41Similar
Q1 11:13
3RD & 1
OPP 41
0
11.5%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Ja'Shaun Poke for no gain to the BwGrn 41Similar
Q1 7:17
2ND & 5
OPP 35
0
12.5%
Dustin Crum pass incomplete to Keshunn Abram, broken up by Jordan AndersonSimilar
Q1 7:17
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+5
12.5%
CRUM, Dustin pass incomplete to MCKOY, Isaiah, PENALTY BGSU offside defense (HAIRE, Walter) 5 yards to the BGSU23, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:17
3RD & 1
OPP 19
-3
12.6%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Ja'Shaun Poke for a loss of 3 yards to the BwGrn 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 4TD10 plays · 77 yds · 2:4213% → 17%
Q1 5:36
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+22
12.6%
Matt McDonald pass complete to Noah Massey for 22 yds to the BwGrn 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:36
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+13
13.4%
Trevon Raymore run for 13 yds to the KntSt 18 for a 1ST down KENT ST Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 5TD12 plays · 75 yds · 3:4084% → 87%
Q1 2:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
15.7%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Isaiah McKoy for 13 yds to the KntSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
15.8%
Dustin Crum pass incomplete KENT ST Penalty, illegal motion ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 14:14
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
13.2%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Ja'Shaun Poke for 16 yds for a TD, (Matthew Trickett KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 6DOWNS6 plays · 31 yds · 0:0014% → 15%
Q2 14:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+37
14.2%
Matt McDonald pass complete to Tyrone Broden Jr. for 37 yds to the KntSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:14
4TH & 6
OPP 34
-12
14.6%
Matt McDonald sacked by Brandon Coleman for a loss of 12 yards to the KntSt 44 Matt McDonald fumbled, recovered by BwGrn Matt McDonald , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 7TD9 plays · 56 yds · 2:0086% → 89%
Q2 12:06
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+5
14.0%
CRUM, Dustin pass incomplete to VANCE, Isaac (BURNS, Diata), PENALTY BGSU offside defense (HAIRE, Walter) 5 yards to the KENTST49, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:06
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+13
13.8%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Isaac Vance for 13 yds to the BwGrn 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:36
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-5
14.0%
CRUM, Dustin pass complete to MCKOY, Isaiah for 33 yards to the BGSU0, clock 10:36, PENALTY KENTST ineligible downfield on pass 5 yards to the BGSU38, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:06
2ND & 9
OPP 32
+32
10.6%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Isaiah McKoy for 32 yds for a TD, (Matthew Trickett KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 8PUNT6 plays · 18 yds · 0:0011% → 12%
Q2 10:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
11.4%
MCDONALD, Matt pass incomplete to BRODEN, Tyrone, PENALTY KENTST pass interference (HOLMES, C.J.) 15 yards to the BGSU40, 1ST DOWN BGSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:06
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
11.9%
Matt McDonald pass complete to Julian Ortega-Jones for 5 yds to the BwGrn 45Similar
Q2 10:06
2ND & 5
OWN 45
0
12.0%
Matt McDonald pass incomplete to Julian Ortega-Jones, broken up by Marquez CooperSimilar
Q2 10:06
4TH & 7
OWN 43
+2
11.6%
Matt Naranjo punt for 7 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the 50 yard line BOWLING GREEN Penalty, illegal formation (-5 Yards) to the BwGrn 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 9TD10 plays · 45 yds · 3:2690% → 93%
Q2 8:54
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+3
10.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the BwGrn 27 TEAM fumbled, recovered by KntSt Dustin Crum , return for 3 yds to the BwGrn 27Similar
Q2 8:54
3RD & 9
OPP 27
+14
10.5%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Marquez Cooper for 14 yds to the BwGrn 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:54
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+11
10.3%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Isaac Vance for 11 yds to the BwGrn 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 10PUNT7 plays · -7 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q2 5:28
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-5
7.6%
RAYMORE, Trevon rush for 3 yards to the BGSU28 (JOHNS, Khalib), PENALTY BGSU illegal motion 5 yards to the BGSU20, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:28
3RD & 13
OWN 22
-5
7.5%
MCDONALD, Matt pass complete to MORRIS, Quintin for 23 yards to the BGSU45 (COLEMAN, Brand.;CLARK, Dean), PENALTY BGSU illegal motion 5 yards to the BGSU17, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 11TD3 plays · 50 yds · 0:2593% → 95%
Q2 2:17
1ST & 10
50
-3
7.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the KntSt 45 TEAM fumbled, recovered by KntSt Dustin Crum , return for a loss of 2 yards to the KntSt 45Similar
Q2 1:52
2ND & 15
OWN 45
+55
4.9%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Ja'Shaun Poke for 55 yds for a TD, (Matthew Trickett KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 12FUMBLE6 plays · 14 yds · 0:083% → 3%
Q2 1:39
3RD & 2
OWN 27
+4
2.5%
Bryson Denley run for 4 yds to the BwGrn 33 Bryson Denley fumbled, forced by Ja'Shaun Poke, recovered by KntStSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 13MISSED FG5 plays · 4 yds · 0:5096% → 96%
BGSUDrive 14END OF HALF1 play · -1 yds · 0:002% → 2%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 15PUNT5 plays · -1 yds · 0:003% → 3%
KENTDrive 16PUNT4 plays · -2 yds · 0:0097% → 96%
Q3 13:46
3RD & 12
OWN 1
0
3.6%
Dustin Crum pass incomplete to Isaiah McKoy, broken up by Isaiah Johnson-Mack KENT ST Penalty, ineligible downfield on pass ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 13:46
4TH & 12
OWN 1
+43
3.8%
Ian Henzi punt for 43 yds , Jake Rogers returns for a loss of 1 yard to the KntSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 17PUNT7 plays · 5 yds · 0:004% → 4%
KENTDrive 18PUNT5 plays · -2 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 19PUNT4 plays · 3 yds · 0:003% → 3%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 20TD14 plays · 91 yds · 3:3398% → 99%
Q3 9:01
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+14
2.1%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Isaiah McKoy for 14 yds to the KntSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:01
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+3
2.0%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Isaiah McKoy for 3 yds to the KntSt 47Similar
Q3 9:01
3RD & 2
OPP 48
+14
1.8%
Bryan Bradford run for 14 yds to the BwGrn 34 for a 1ST down BOWLING GREEN Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
1.3%
CRUM, Dustin pass incomplete to VANCE, Isaac, PENALTY BGSU roughing passer (JOHNSON-MACK, I) 4 yards to the BGSU3, 1ST DOWN KENTST, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 21PUNT8 plays · 17 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q3 5:28
3RD & 10
OWN 28
+11
0.6%
Matt McDonald pass complete to Quintin Morris for 11 yds to the BwGrn 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:28
3RD & 11
OWN 38
+7
0.6%
Matt McDonald pass complete to Quintin Morris for 7 yds to the BwGrn 45Similar
Q3 5:28
4TH & 4
OWN 45
+16
0.6%
Matt Naranjo punt for 45 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the KntSt 26 , Dean Clark returns for 16 yds to the KntSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 22FG10 plays · 69 yds · 3:1899% → 100%
Q3 3:15
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-6
0.5%
Collin Schlee sacked by Patrick Day for a loss of 6 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 23TD12 plays · 75 yds · 5:260% → 0%
Q4 14:57
4TH & 10
OPP 29
+23
0.2%
Matt McDonald pass complete to Noah Massey for 23 yds to the KntSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:57
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
0.2%
MCDONALD, Matt pass incomplete to KINSEY, Javonte, PENALTY KENTST pass interference (HINES, Elvis) 5 yards to the KENTST1, 1ST DOWN BGSU, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 24TD10 plays · 75 yds · 3:21100% → 100%
Q4 9:31
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
0.3%
Collin Schlee run for a loss of 3 yards to the KntSt 37 Collin Schlee fumbled, recovered by KntSt Collin Schlee , return for 4 yds to the KntSt 37Similar
Q4 9:31
2ND & 19
OWN 27
+33
0.3%
Collin Schlee pass complete to Isaiah Wooden for 33 yds to the BwGrn 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:31
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+13
0.3%
Collin Schlee pass complete to Javaughn Williams for 13 yds to the BwGrn 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:31
2ND & 3
OPP 20
+5
0.2%
Collin Schlee pass complete to Javaughn Williams for 5 yds to the BwGrn 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 25DOWNS8 plays · 34 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 6:10
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-6
0.1%
Matt McDonald sacked by Prince Okituama and Mario Nunez for a loss of 6 yards to the KntSt 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 26TD4 plays · 59 yds · 1:09100% → 100%
Biggest swings
TD · Q1 2:54
Matt McDonald run for 2 yds for a TD, (Nate Needham KICK)
+3.5
TD · Q2 10:06
Dustin Crum pass complete to Isaiah McKoy for 32 yds for a TD, (Matthew Trickett KICK)
-3.5
TD · Q2 5:28
Marquez Cooper run for 2 yds for a TD, (Matthew Trickett KICK)
-3.1