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BUF

Buffalo 49 at Northern Illinois 30

NIU
2020 · Week 10 · Nov 4, 2020 · Huskie Stadium
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Win probability · NIU
modelNIU aheadBUF aheadconfidence bandkey playNIU scoreBUF score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDTDTDFUMBLEFUMBLETDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 7:11 · Matt Ference punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Ron Cook Jr. at the Buff 33
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+56.0+28.00−28.0−56.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 108Home team on offense−22.9Pregame prior−15.4Score differential−12.6Garbage-time factor−6.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−2.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 11:37: Erin Collins run for 6 yds for a TD (John Richardson KICK) — NIU win probability +5.9 pts (now 25%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
  2. TD · Q2 2:14: Jaret Patterson run for 56 yds for a TD (Alex McNulty KICK) — BUF win probability +7.3 pts (now 83%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:35: Ross Bowers pass complete to Cole Tucker for 16 yds for a TD Timeout BUFFALO, clock 00:35 (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — NIU win probability +9.9 pts (now 30%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  4. FUMBLE · Q3 8:35: Ross Bowers run for a loss of 13 yards Ross Bowers fumbled, recovered by Buff Tim Terry Jr. , return for 46 yds (Alex McNulty KICK) — BUF win probability +8.5 pts (now 82%) (top driver: NIU has the ball).
  5. FUMBLE · Q3 7:50: Erin Collins run for 2 yds Erin Collins fumbled, recovered by Buff Isaiah King , return for 42 yds (Alex McNulty KICK) — BUF win probability +6.6 pts (now 90%) (top driver: NIU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NIU made the numbers' call on 7 of 8BUF made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 13:24NIU 4th & 4 at NIU 16, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.1%−<0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.1%
    average punt
  2. Q1 4:18NIU 4th & 12 at BUF 25, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 21.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.8%−0.2
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    21.0%
    66% to make
    Punt
    19.9%−1.2
    average punt
  3. Q2 14:05NIU 4th & 8 at NIU 27, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.6%−0.3
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.9%
    average punt
  4. Q2 13:37BUF 4th & 8 at BUF 22, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.5%−0.7
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.2%
    average punt
  5. Q2 8:22NIU 4th & 10 at NIU 38, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.4%−0.8
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.1%
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:16BUF 4th & 10 at BUF 20, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.1%−0.8
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.9%
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:43NIU 4th & 11 at BUF 49, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.3%−0.6
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.9%
    average punt
  8. Q3 11:07BUF 4th & 5 at BUF 47, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.8%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.9%
    average punt
  9. Q3 7:11NIU 4th & 7 at NIU 28, down 19
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.8%−0.8
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.6%
    average punt
  10. Q3 1:17BUF 4th & 5 at NIU 45, up 26
    Close callPunted · 98.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.8%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    98.5%−0.3
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    98.7%−0.1
    average punt
  11. Q4 12:14NIU 4th & 10 at BUF 33, down 26
    Close callWent for it · 0.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.5%−0.2
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    0.7%
    49% to make
    Punt
    0.4%−0.2
    average punt
  12. Q4 8:46NIU 4th & 2 at BUF 34, down 33
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    0.2%−0.1
    47% to make
    Punt
    0.2%−0.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 3:06BUF 4th & 18 at BUF 19, up 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.5%−0.2
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.7%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NIU made the numbers' call on 2 of 4BUF made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 12:08BUF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 0:45BUF Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 11:37NIU Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    25.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    25.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 2:14BUF Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:35NIU Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    26.4%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    26.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 6:09BUF Touchdown, up 25 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 12:14BUF Touchdown, up 32 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 4:56NIU Touchdown, down 27 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    0.3%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    0.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 1:11NIU Touchdown, down 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    1.2%−0.2
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    1.3%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NIUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:1616% → 16%
Q1 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+3
15.9%
Erin Collins run for 3 yds to the NoIll 13Similar
Q1 13:50
2ND & 7
OWN 13
+3
16.3%
Erin Collins run for 3 yds to the NoIll 16Similar
Q1 13:31
3RD & 4
OWN 16
0
16.4%
Ross Bowers pass incomplete to Cole TuckerSimilar
Q1 13:24
4TH & 4
OWN 16
0
16.4%
Matt Ference punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Ron Cook Jr. at the Buff 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 2TD
3 plays · 55 yds · 1:0184% → 84%
Q1 13:09
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+19
16.5%
Jaret Patterson run for 19 yds to the NoIll 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:28
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+31
16.8%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Zac Lefebvre for 31 yds to the NoIll 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
16.3%
Jaret Patterson run for 5 yds for a TD (Alex McNulty KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 3FG
16 plays · 50 yds · 7:3317% → 20%
Q1 11:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
16.6%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Tyrice Richie for 9 yds to the NoIll 34Similar
Q1 11:11
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+7
16.9%
Erin Collins run for 7 yds to the NoIll 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:37
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+7
17.1%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Cole Tucker for 7 yds to the NoIll 48Similar
Q1 10:05
2ND & 3
OWN 48
+2
17.4%
Erin Collins run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 9:38
3RD & 1
50
+5
17.5%
Erin Collins run for 5 yds to the Buff 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:28
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-7
17.9%
Ross Bowers sacked by Malcolm Koonce for a loss of 7 yards to the NoIll 48Similar
Q1 8:13
2ND & 17
OWN 48
+7
17.7%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Daniel Crawford for 7 yds to the Buff 45Similar
Q1 7:32
3RD & 10
OPP 45
+7
17.9%
Ross Bowers run for 7 yds to the Buff 38Similar
Q1 7:13
4TH & 3
OPP 38
+5
18.1%
BUFFALO Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Buff 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:35
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+2
18.8%
Erin Collins run for 2 yds to the Buff 31Similar
Q1 6:09
2ND & 8
OPP 31
+8
18.9%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Tyrice Richie for 8 yds to the Buff 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:22
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+1
19.2%
Erin Collins run for 1 yd to the Buff 22Similar
Q1 4:56
2ND & 9
OPP 22
0
19.4%
Ross Bowers pass incomplete to Daniel CrawfordSimilar
Q1 4:27
3RD & 9
OPP 22
-3
19.2%
Ross Bowers sacked by Max Michel and Ronald McGee for a loss of 3 yards to the Buff 25Similar
Q1 4:18
4TH & 12
OPP 25
+43
19.7%
John Richardson 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 4TD
8 plays · 61 yds · 3:1980% → 83%
Q1 4:04
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
19.6%
Jaret Patterson run for 3 yds to the Buff 42Similar
Q1 3:19
2ND & 7
OWN 42
+14
19.8%
Jaret Patterson run for 14 yds to the NoIll 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:43
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+6
19.9%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Antonio Nunn for 6 yds to the NoIll 38Similar
Q1 2:16
2ND & 4
OPP 35
+18
19.7%
Jaret Patterson run for 3 yds to the NoIll 35 for a 1ST down NORTHERNIL Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the NoIll 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:51
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+3
19.9%
Jaret Patterson run for 3 yds to the NoIll 17Similar
Q1 1:23
2ND & 7
OPP 17
0
20.0%
Jaret Patterson run for no gain to the NoIll 17Similar
Q1 0:45
3RD & 7
OPP 17
+17
17.5%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Antonio Nunn for 17 yds for a TD (Alex McNulty KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 2 yds · 1:2818% → 18%
Q1 0:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
17.8%
Erin Collins run for 3 yds to the NoIll 28Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+5
18.0%
BUFFALO Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the NoIll 33Similar
Q2 14:19
2ND & 2
OWN 33
-6
18.4%
Tyrice Richie run for a loss of 6 yards to the NoIll 27Similar
Q2 14:12
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
17.7%
Ross Bowers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:05
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
17.5%
Matt Ference punt for 53 yds , Ron Cook Jr. returns for no gain to the Buff 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:2482% → 82%
Q2 14:01
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
18.1%
Kyle Vantrease pass incomplete to Zac LefebvreSimilar
Q2 13:41
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+2
18.2%
Kevin Marks Jr. run for 2 yds to the Buff 22Similar
Q2 13:38
3RD & 8
OWN 22
0
17.7%
Kyle Vantrease pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:37
4TH & 8
OWN 22
0
18.0%
Evan Finegan punt for 15 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Buff 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 7TD
5 plays · 37 yds · 1:4819% → 25%
Q2 13:25
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+2
18.9%
Erin Collins run for 2 yds to the Buff 35Similar
Q2 13:08
2ND & 8
OPP 35
-5
19.4%
NORTHERNIL Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Buff 40Similar
Q2 12:42
2ND & 13
OPP 40
+28
18.7%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Trayvon Rudolph for 28 yds to the Buff 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:05
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+6
19.5%
Erin Collins run for 6 yds to the Buff 6Similar
Q2 11:37
2ND & 4
OPP 6
+6
25.4%
Erin Collins run for 6 yds for a TD (John Richardson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 8INT
6 plays · 13 yds · 1:3377% → 77%
Q2 11:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
23.0%
Kevin Marks Jr. run for 8 yds to the Buff 33Similar
Q2 11:04
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+2
22.6%
Kevin Marks Jr. run for 2 yds to the Buff 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:17
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
23.2%
Trevor Wilson run for 3 yds to the Buff 38Similar
Q2 9:58
2ND & 7
OWN 38
0
22.5%
Kyle Vantrease pass incomplete to Zac LefebvreSimilar
Q2 9:52
3RD & 7
OWN 38
0
23.2%
Kyle Vantrease pass intercepted Jordan Hansen return for no gain to the NoIll 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:3725% → 24%
Q2 8:59
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
24.9%
Erin Collins run for 5 yds to the NoIll 43Similar
Q2 8:27
2ND & 5
OWN 43
0
26.1%
Harrison Waylee run for no gain to the NoIll 43Similar
Q2 8:25
3RD & 5
OWN 43
0
25.3%
Ross Bowers pass incomplete to Cole TuckerSimilar
Q2 8:23
4TH & 5
OWN 43
-5
24.1%
NORTHERNIL Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NoIll 38Similar
Q2 8:22
4TH & 10
OWN 38
0
23.6%
Matt Ference punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Ron Cook Jr. at the Buff 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:5976% → 75%
Q2 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
24.3%
Jaret Patterson run for 4 yds to the Buff 24Similar
Q2 8:00
2ND & 6
OWN 24
-10
23.5%
BUFFALO Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Buff 14Similar
Q2 7:45
2ND & 16
OWN 14
+6
24.0%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Antonio Nunn for 6 yds to the Buff 20Similar
Q2 7:45
3RD & 10
OWN 20
0
24.6%
Kyle Vantrease pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:16
4TH & 10
OWN 20
0
25.3%
Evan Finegan punt for 28 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Buff 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 1:2726% → 24%
Q2 7:10
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
26.3%
Ross Bowers pass incomplete to Cole TuckerSimilar
Q2 7:00
2ND & 10
OPP 48
-5
26.3%
NORTHERNIL Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NoIll 47Similar
Q2 6:47
2ND & 15
OWN 47
+4
24.9%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Erin Collins for 4 yds to the Buff 49Similar
Q2 6:18
3RD & 11
OPP 49
0
25.1%
Erin Collins run for no gain to the Buff 49Similar
Q2 5:43
4TH & 11
OPP 49
0
24.2%
Matt Ference punt for 42 yds, downed at the Buff 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 12TD
7 plays · 93 yds · 2:3675% → 83%
Q2 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 7
-2
25.3%
Jaret Patterson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Buff 5 Jaret Patterson fumbled, recovered by Buff Jaret PattersonSimilar
Q2 4:47
2ND & 12
OWN 5
+18
25.5%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Antonio Nunn for 18 yds to the Buff 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:55
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
25.3%
Jaret Patterson run for 2 yds to the Buff 25Similar
Q2 3:31
2ND & 8
OWN 25
+3
25.5%
Jaret Patterson run for 3 yds to the Buff 28Similar
Q2 3:11
3RD & 5
OWN 28
+7
25.2%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Dominic Johnson for 7 yds to the Buff 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:48
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
24.3%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Dominic Johnson for 9 yds to the Buff 44Similar
Q2 2:14
2ND & 1
OWN 44
+56
16.9%
Jaret Patterson run for 56 yds for a TD (Alex McNulty KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 13TD
8 plays · 60 yds · 1:2518% → 30%
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
18.3%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Cole Tucker for 6 yds to the NoIll 46Similar
Q2 1:50
2ND & 4
OWN 46
+10
18.7%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Tyrice Richie for 10 yds to the Buff 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:35
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+15
19.3%
BUFFALO Penalty, Roughing Passer (15 Yards) to the Buff 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:09
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+4
20.3%
Rondarius Gregory run for 4 yds to the Buff 25Similar
Q2 0:43
2ND & 6
OPP 25
+9
20.4%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Tyrice Richie for 9 yds to the Buff 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:35
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
30.3%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Cole Tucker for 16 yds for a TD Timeout BUFFALO, clock 00:35 (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 14END OF HALF
4 plays · 19 yds · 0:2676% → 77%
Q2 0:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
23.9%
Jaret Patterson run for 9 yds to the Buff 34Similar
Q2 0:21
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+2
22.9%
Jaret Patterson run for 2 yds to the Buff 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+8
23.4%
Jaret Patterson run for 8 yds to the Buff 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 15PUNT
8 plays · 26 yds · 3:4376% → 76%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-3
23.6%
Jaret Patterson run for a loss of 3 yards to the Buff 18Similar
Q3 14:03
2ND & 13
OWN 18
+9
23.9%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Antonio Nunn for 9 yds to the Buff 27Similar
Q3 13:50
3RD & 4
OWN 27
+15
23.9%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Jovany Ruiz for 15 yds to the Buff 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+5
22.2%
Jaret Patterson run for 5 yds to the Buff 47Similar
Q3 12:22
2ND & 5
OWN 47
-1
22.1%
Jaret Patterson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Buff 46Similar
Q3 11:48
3RD & 6
OWN 46
+1
22.9%
Jaret Patterson run for 1 yd to the Buff 47Similar
Q3 11:07
4TH & 5
OWN 47
0
24.3%
Evan Finegan punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Cole Tucker at the NoIll 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 16FUMBLE TD
5 plays · 33 yds · 2:1225% → 18%
Q3 10:47
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+1
25.3%
Erin Collins run for 1 yd to the NoIll 14Similar
Q3 10:17
2ND & 9
OWN 14
+16
25.4%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Tyrice Richie for 16 yds to the NoIll 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:41
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
26.3%
Erin Collins run for 1 yd to the NoIll 31Similar
Q3 9:06
2ND & 9
OWN 31
+28
26.4%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Trayvon Rudolph for 28 yds to the Buff 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:35
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+46
18.0%
Ross Bowers run for a loss of 13 yards Ross Bowers fumbled, recovered by Buff Tim Terry Jr. , return for 46 yds (Alex McNulty KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 17FUMBLE TD
3 plays · 21 yds · 0:3116% → 10%
Q3 8:21
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+19
16.4%
Tyrice Richie run for 19 yds to the NoIll 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+42
9.8%
Erin Collins run for 2 yds Erin Collins fumbled, recovered by Buff Isaiah King , return for 42 yds (Alex McNulty KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:259% → 9%
Q3 7:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
9.1%
Rondarius Gregory run for 3 yds to the NoIll 28Similar
Q3 7:22
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
9.2%
Ross Bowers pass incomplete to Cole TuckerSimilar
Q3 7:17
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
9.0%
Ross Bowers pass incomplete to Cole TuckerSimilar
Q3 7:11
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
8.9%
Matt Ference punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Ron Cook Jr. at the Buff 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 19TD
4 plays · 67 yds · 0:5694% → 99%
Q3 7:05
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+11
5.6%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Zac Lefebvre for 11 yds to the Buff 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:33
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+46
5.2%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Antonio Nunn for 46 yds to the NoIll 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+6
4.9%
Jaret Patterson run for 6 yds to the NoIll 4Similar
Q3 6:09
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
1.4%
Kyle Vantrease run for 4 yds for a TD (Alex McNulty KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 20FUMBLE
5 plays · 23 yds · 1:452% → 2%
Q3 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
1.7%
Rondarius Gregory run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 5:17
2ND & 7
50
+9
1.8%
Rondarius Gregory run for 9 yds to the Buff 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:32
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+10
1.8%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Tyrice Richie for 10 yds to the Buff 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:05
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+1
1.9%
Rondarius Gregory run for 1 yd to the Buff 30 Rondarius Gregory fumbled, recovered by Buff Eddie Zinn-TurnerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 21PUNT
7 plays · 25 yds · 2:3299% → 99%
Q3 3:49
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
1.2%
Kevin Marks Jr. run for 5 yds to the Buff 35Similar
Q3 3:25
2ND & 5
OWN 35
+15
1.2%
NORTHERNIL Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:13
1ST & 10
50
+8
1.1%
Kevin Marks Jr. run for 8 yds to the NoIll 42Similar
Q3 2:37
2ND & 2
OPP 42
-10
1.0%
BUFFALO Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Buff 48Similar
Q3 1:52
2ND & 12
OWN 48
+7
1.0%
Kevin Marks Jr. run for 7 yds to the NoIll 45Similar
Q3 1:25
3RD & 5
OPP 45
0
1.0%
Kyle Vantrease pass incomplete to Dominic JohnsonSimilar
Q3 1:17
4TH & 5
OPP 45
0
1.2%
Evan Finegan punt for 37 yds, downed at the NoIll 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 22INT TD
11 plays · 59 yds · 3:521% → 0%
Q3 1:06
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+3
1.1%
Rondarius Gregory run for 3 yds to the NoIll 11Similar
Q3 0:31
2ND & 7
OWN 11
+4
1.1%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Tyrice Richie for 4 yds to the NoIll 15Similar
Q4 14:37
3RD & 3
OWN 15
+19
1.3%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Tyrice Richie for 19 yds to the NoIll 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:14
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+21
1.2%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Tyrice Richie for 21 yds to the Buff 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:49
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+7
1.3%
Rondarius Gregory run for 7 yds to the Buff 38Similar
Q4 13:13
2ND & 3
OPP 38
0
1.1%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Rondarius Gregory for no gain to the Buff 38Similar
Q4 13:01
3RD & 3
OPP 38
+5
1.0%
Rondarius Gregory run for 5 yds to the Buff 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:35
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
0.8%
Ross Bowers pass incomplete to Trayvon RudolphSimilar
Q4 12:30
2ND & 10
OPP 33
0
0.8%
Ross Bowers pass incomplete to Dennis RobinsonSimilar
Q4 12:25
3RD & 10
OPP 33
0
0.7%
Ross Bowers pass incomplete to Dennis RobinsonSimilar
Q4 12:14
4TH & 10
OPP 33
-65
0.3%
Ross Bowers pass intercepted for a TD Kadofi Wright return for 65 yds for a TD (Alex McNulty KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 23TD
20 plays · 65 yds · 6:560% → 0%
Q4 11:52
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-1
0.3%
Harrison Waylee run for a loss of 1 yard to the NoIll 34Similar
Q4 11:12
2ND & 11
OWN 34
+10
0.3%
Harrison Waylee run for 10 yds to the NoIll 44Similar
Q4 10:32
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+14
0.3%
Harrison Waylee run for 14 yds to the Buff 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+7
0.3%
Harrison Waylee run for 7 yds to the Buff 35Similar
Q4 9:13
2ND & 3
OPP 35
+1
0.2%
Rondarius Gregory run for 1 yd to the Buff 34Similar
Q4 8:53
3RD & 2
OPP 34
0
0.2%
Andrew Haidet pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:46
4TH & 2
OPP 34
+5
0.2%
Andrew Haidet pass complete to Messiah Travis for 5 yds to the Buff 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:50
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+4
0.2%
Harrison Waylee run for 4 yds to the Buff 25Similar
Q4 7:27
2ND & 6
OPP 25
+7
0.2%
Harrison Waylee run for 7 yds to the Buff 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:05
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
0.2%
Andrew Haidet pass incomplete to Mohamed ToureSimilar
Q4 6:55
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+2
0.2%
Harrison Waylee run for 2 yds to the Buff 16Similar
Q4 6:08
3RD & 8
OPP 16
+15
0.2%
Harrison Waylee run for 15 yds to the Buff 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-3
0.2%
Harrison Waylee run for a loss of 3 yards to the Buff 4Similar
Q4 5:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
0.1%
BUFFALO Penalty, Roughing Passer (2 Yards) to the Buff 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
0.1%
Harrison Waylee run for 1 yd to the Buff 1Similar
Q4 4:56
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
0.1%
Andrew Haidet run for 1 yd for a TD Timeout NORTHERNIL, clock 04:56 BUFFALO Penalty, Defensive Offside (1 Yards) to the Buff 2 (R. Gregory Run For Two-point Conversion)Similar
Q4 4:56
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
0.1%
BUFFALO Penalty, Defensive Offside (1 Yards) to the Buff 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 24PUNT
5 plays · -8 yds · 1:38100% → 100%
Q4 4:44
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+3
0.2%
Matt Myers run for 3 yds to the Buff 30Similar
Q4 4:04
2ND & 7
OWN 35
-10
0.2%
Ron Cook Jr. run for 5 yds to the Buff 35 BUFFALO Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-15 Yards) to the Buff 20Similar
Q4 3:50
3RD & 17
OWN 20
-1
0.2%
Ron Cook Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the Buff 19Similar
Q4 3:06
4TH & 18
OWN 19
0
0.2%
Evan Finegan punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Cole Tucker at the NoIll 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 25TD
4 plays · 57 yds · 1:240% → 1%
Q4 2:35
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
0.1%
Harrison Waylee run for 4 yds to the NoIll 47Similar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 6
OWN 47
+6
0.1%
Harrison Waylee run for 6 yds to the Buff 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:25
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+34
0.1%
Rodney Thompson pass complete to Fabian McCray for 34 yds to the Buff 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:11
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
0.8%
Rodney Thompson run for 13 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 26FUMBLE
3 plays · 0 yds · 0:1999% → 99%
Q4 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
0.7%
Ron Cook Jr. run for 4 yds to the Buff 29Similar
Q4 0:21
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+3
0.7%
Matt Myers run for a loss of 1 yard to the Buff 22 Matt Myers fumbled, recovered by NoIll Michael Kennedy , return for 3 yds to the Buff 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 27FUMBLE
3 plays · -16 yds · 0:121% → 1%
Q4 0:17
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-10
0.8%
NORTHERNIL Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Buff 32Similar
Q4 0:13
1ST & 20
OPP 32
0
0.8%
Rodney Thompson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:05
2ND & 20
OPP 32
-8
0.8%
Rodney Thompson sacked by Eric Black for a loss of 8 yards to the Buff 38 Rodney Thompson fumbled, recovered by Buff Dom Polizzi , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 28END OF 4TH QUARTER
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-1
0.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Buff 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:35
Ross Bowers pass complete to Cole Tucker for 16 yds for a TD Timeout BUFFALO, clock 00:35 (Two-Point Conversion failed )
+9.9
FUMBLE · Q3 8:35
Ross Bowers run for a loss of 13 yards Ross Bowers fumbled, recovered by Buff Tim Terry Jr. , return for 46 yds (Alex McNulty KICK)
-8.5
TD · Q2 2:14
Jaret Patterson run for 56 yds for a TD (Alex McNulty KICK)
-7.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com