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BGSU

Bowling Green 3 at Toledo 38

TOL
2020 · Week 10 · Nov 4, 2020 · Glass Bowl
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Win probability · TOL
modelTOL aheadBGSU aheadconfidence bandkey playTOL scoreBGSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 14:49 · Bailey Flint punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Jake Rogers at the BwGrn 12
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+43.0+21.50−21.5−43.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 152Pregame prior+13.9Home team on offense+32.9Score differential+16.6Garbage-time factor+11.9Blowout margin+11.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+3.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 10:52: Eli Peters pass complete to Bryant Koback for 2 yds for a TD BOWLING GREEN Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined (Thomas Cluckey PAT MISSED) — BGSU win probability +0.4 pts (now 8%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 8:05: Eli Peters pass complete to Devin Maddox for 9 yds for a TD (Thomas Cluckey KICK) — TOL win probability +0.7 pts (now 93%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  3. TD · Q1 3:21: Eli Peters pass complete to Jerjuan Newton for 18 yds for a TD Timeout TOLEDO, clock 03:21 (Eli Peters pass for Two-Point Conversion) — TOL win probability +1.8 pts (now 95%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q2 4:28: Bryant Koback run for 3 yds to the Toled 23 — TOL win probability +1.7 pts (now 97%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 5:42: Eli Peters pass complete to Bryce Mitchell for 42 yds for a TD (Thomas Cluckey KICK) — TOL win probability +2.1 pts (now 100%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TOL made the numbers' call on 4 of 9BGSU made the numbers' call on 8 of 10
  1. Q1 15:00BGSU 4th & 3 at BGSU 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.8%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:52TOL 4th & 2 at BGSU 2, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 92.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    92.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    92.2%−0.1
    94% to make
    Punt
    91.8%−0.6
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:21BGSU 4th & 11 at BGSU 29, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.2%−0.2
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.4%
    average punt
  4. Q2 15:00TOL 4th & 7 at BGSU 29, up 21
    Close callWent for it · 94.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    94.9%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    94.9%
    58% to make
    Punt
    94.0%−0.9
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:56BGSU 4th & 8 at BGSU 31, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.7%−0.3
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.0%
    average punt
  6. Q2 13:59TOL 4th & 1 at TOL 33, up 21
    Close callPunted · 95.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.2%−0.3
    average punt
  7. Q2 7:45BGSU 4th & 5 at TOL 37, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.5%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    4.3%−0.2
    40% to make
    Punt
    4.2%−0.3
    average punt
  8. Q2 7:39TOL 4th & 8 at TOL 35, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.9%−0.3
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.2%
    average punt
  9. Q2 4:41BGSU 4th & 6 at TOL 38, down 21
    Close callPunted · 4.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.1%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    3.8%−0.3
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    3.8%−0.3
    average punt
  10. Q2 4:28TOL 4th & 7 at TOL 23, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.0%−0.3
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.4%
    average punt
  11. Q2 2:25TOL 4th & 8 at TOL 49, up 21
    Close callPunted · 96.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.6%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.5%−0.1
    average punt
  12. Q3 13:06BGSU 4th & 8 at BGSU 47, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.1%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.3%
    average punt
  13. Q3 3:54BGSU 4th & 7 at TOL 7, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.3%−<0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    0.3%
    91% to make
    Punt
    -0.2%−0.5
    average punt
  14. Q3 3:54TOL 4th & 1 at BGSU 26, up 25
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    98.9%−0.3
    64% to make
    Punt
    98.0%−1.3
    average punt
  15. Q4 14:50BGSU 4th & 5 at BGSU 31, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.7%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.8%
    average punt
  16. Q4 14:49TOL 4th & 1 at TOL 48, up 25
    Close callPunted · 99.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.2%−0.2
    average punt
  17. Q4 12:19BGSU 4th & 11 at BGSU 11, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.5%−0.2
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.7%
    average punt
  18. Q4 10:34BGSU 4th & 15 at TOL 34, down 32
    Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.0%−0.1
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%
    47% to make
    Punt
    0.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  19. Q4 2:32TOL 4th & 2 at BGSU 2, up 32
    Close callKicked a field goal · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.8%−0.1
    94% to make
    Punt
    99.4%−0.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TOL made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 10:52TOL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    92.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 8:05TOL Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 3:21TOL Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    94.4%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    94.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 5:42TOL Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 10:40TOL Touchdown, up 31 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BGSUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
92.6%
Matt McDonald pass incomplete to Quintin MorrisSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
92.6%
Matt McDonald pass complete to Julian Ortega-Jones for 7 yds to the BwGrn 32Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
92.6%
Matt McDonald pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 3
OWN 32
+6
92.6%
TEAM punt for a loss of 5 yards, punt out-of-bounds at the BwGrn 21 , Danzel McKinley-Lewis returns for 6 yds to the BwGrn 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 2TD
9 plays · 21 yds · 3:1392% → 92%
Q1 14:05
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+4
92.4%
Bryant Koback run for 4 yds to the BwGrn 17Similar
Q1 14:05
2ND & 6
OPP 17
-5
92.4%
TOLEDO Penalty, false start (Vitaliy Gurman) to the BwGrn 22Similar
Q1 14:05
2ND & 11
OPP 22
+10
92.4%
Eli Peters pass complete to Devin Maddox for 10 yds to the BwGrn 12Similar
Q1 14:05
3RD & 1
OPP 12
+5
92.4%
Bryant Koback run for 5 yds to the BwGrn 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
92.4%
Eli Peters run for a loss of 2 yards to the BwGrn 9 Eli Peters fumbled, recovered by Toled Eli Peters , return for no gain to the BwGrn 9Similar
Q1 14:05
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
92.4%
Bryant Koback run for 2 yds to the BwGrn 7Similar
Q1 14:05
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
-5
92.4%
TOLEDO Penalty, false start (Vitaliy Gurman) to the BwGrn 12Similar
Q1 14:05
3RD & GOAL
OPP 12
+10
92.4%
Eli Peters pass complete to Bryant Koback for 10 yds to the BwGrn 2Similar
Q1 10:52
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
92.0%
Eli Peters pass complete to Bryant Koback for 2 yds for a TD BOWLING GREEN Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined (Thomas Cluckey PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 3INT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q1 10:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
91.8%
Matt McDonald pass incomplete to Tyrone Broden Jr.Similar
Q1 10:52
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
91.8%
Andrew Clair run for 1 yd to the BwGrn 26Similar
Q1 10:52
3RD & 9
OWN 26
-19
91.9%
Matt McDonald pass intercepted Nate Bauer return for 19 yds to the BwGrn 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 4TD
6 plays · 25 yds · 1:5392% → 93%
Q1 9:58
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
92.0%
Eli Peters pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:58
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+7
92.0%
Bryant Koback run for 7 yds to the BwGrn 18Similar
Q1 9:58
3RD & 3
OPP 18
+3
91.9%
Eli Peters pass complete to Danzel McKinley-Lewis for 3 yds to the BwGrn 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:58
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
92.0%
Eli Peters pass incomplete to Drew RosiSimilar
Q1 9:58
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+6
92.0%
Shakif Seymour run for 6 yds to the BwGrn 9Similar
Q1 8:05
3RD & 4
OPP 9
+9
92.7%
Eli Peters pass complete to Devin Maddox for 9 yds for a TD (Thomas Cluckey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 5FUMBLE
6 plays · 50 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q1 8:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
92.2%
Bryson Denley run for 1 yd to the BwGrn 26Similar
Q1 8:05
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+13
92.2%
Andrew Clair run for 13 yds to the BwGrn 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:05
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
92.1%
Andrew Clair run for 5 yds to the BwGrn 44Similar
Q1 8:05
2ND & 5
OWN 44
+8
92.0%
Andrew Clair run for 8 yds to the Toled 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:05
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+24
92.0%
Matt McDonald pass complete to Tyrone Broden Jr. for 24 yds Tyrone Broden Jr. fumbled, forced by Chris McDonald, recovered by Toled Jonathan JonesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 6TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:5893% → 95%
Q1 6:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
92.6%
Shakif Seymour run for 12 yds to the Toled 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:19
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
92.7%
BOWLING GREEN Penalty, offside defense (Jordan Murphy) to the Toled 42Similar
Q1 6:19
1ST & 5
OWN 42
+15
92.8%
Shakif Seymour run for 15 yds to the BwGrn 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:19
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+12
92.8%
Shakif Seymour run for 12 yds to the BwGrn 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:19
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+1
92.8%
Bryant Koback run for 1 yd to the BwGrn 30Similar
Q1 6:19
2ND & 9
OPP 30
0
92.8%
Eli Peters pass incomplete to Devin MaddoxSimilar
Q1 6:19
3RD & 9
OPP 30
+12
92.7%
Eli Peters pass complete to Bryce Mitchell for 12 yds to the BwGrn 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:21
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+18
94.5%
Eli Peters pass complete to Jerjuan Newton for 18 yds for a TD Timeout TOLEDO, clock 03:21 (Eli Peters pass for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q1 3:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
94.1%
TOLEDO Penalty, illegal participation (5 Yards) to the BwGrn 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:21
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-1
94.0%
Andrew Clair run for a loss of 1 yard to the BwGrn 29Similar
Q1 3:21
2ND & 11
OWN 29
0
94.1%
Matt McDonald pass incomplete to Presley Motes, broken up by Troy SimonSimilar
Q1 3:21
3RD & 11
OWN 29
0
94.2%
Matt McDonald pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:21
4TH & 11
OWN 29
0
94.2%
Matt Naranjo punt for 31 yds , Danzel McKinley-Lewis returns for no gain to the Toled 40 Danzel McKinley-Lewis fumbled, recovered by Toled Danzel McKinley-LewisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 8DOWNS
10 plays · 31 yds · 2:2795% → 95%
Q1 2:27
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
94.5%
Eli Peters pass incomplete to Bryce MitchellSimilar
Q1 2:27
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+7
94.4%
Shakif Seymour run for 7 yds to the Toled 47Similar
Q1 1:59
3RD & 3
OWN 47
+11
94.8%
Shakif Seymour run for 11 yds to the BwGrn 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:59
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+10
94.9%
PETERS,Eli sacked for loss of 7 yards to the BGSU49 (BROWN, JB), fumble by PETERS,Eli recovered by TOLEDO NEWTON,Jerjuan at TOLEDO49, PENALTY BGSU holding (BIGGERS, Caleb) 10 yards to the BGSU32, 1ST DOWN TOLEDO, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 1:59
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+2
94.9%
Bryant Koback run for 2 yds to the BwGrn 30Similar
Q1 1:59
2ND & 8
OPP 30
0
94.9%
Eli Peters pass incomplete to Drew Rosi, broken up by Jordan AndersonSimilar
Q1 0:37
3RD & 8
OPP 30
+1
95.2%
Bryant Koback run for 1 yd to the BwGrn 29Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 7
OPP 29
0
95.2%
Eli Peters pass incomplete to Drew RosiSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q2 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+4
94.9%
Andrew Clair run for 4 yds to the BwGrn 33Similar
Q2 14:56
2ND & 6
OWN 33
+2
94.8%
Andrew Clair run for 2 yds to the BwGrn 31 Andrew Clair fumbled, forced by Jamal Hines, recovered by BwGrnSimilar
Q2 14:56
3RD & 8
OWN 31
0
95.0%
Matt McDonald pass incomplete to Julian Ortega-Jones BOWLING GREEN Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 14:56
4TH & 8
OWN 31
+3
95.0%
Matt Naranjo punt for 58 yds , Danzel McKinley-Lewis returns for 3 yds to the Toled 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 10PUNT
7 plays · 19 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q2 13:59
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+4
95.6%
Eli Peters pass complete to Bryce Mitchell for 4 yds to the Toled 18Similar
Q2 13:59
2ND & 6
OWN 18
+2
95.6%
Bryant Koback run for 2 yds to the Toled 20Similar
Q2 13:59
3RD & 4
OWN 20
+4
95.5%
Eli Peters pass complete to Bryant Koback for 4 yds to the Toled 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:59
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+5
95.7%
Bryant Koback run for 5 yds to the Toled 29Similar
Q2 13:59
2ND & 5
OWN 29
+3
95.7%
Bryant Koback run for 3 yds to the Toled 32Similar
Q2 13:59
3RD & 2
OWN 32
+1
95.6%
Bryant Koback run for 1 yd to the Toled 33Similar
Q2 13:59
4TH & 1
OWN 33
0
95.5%
Bailey Flint punt for 46 yds, downed at the BwGrn 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 11DOWNS
11 plays · 46 yds · 2:534% → 5%
Q2 10:38
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-5
95.6%
MCDONALD, Matt pass complete to MORRIS, Quintin for no gain to the BGSU21 (BOLDEN,Daniel), PENALTY BGSU illegal formation 5 yards to the BGSU16, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:38
1ST & 15
OWN 16
+16
95.6%
Matt McDonald pass complete to Quintin Morris for 16 yds to the BwGrn 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:38
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+12
95.4%
Bryson Denley run for 12 yds to the BwGrn 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:38
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+2
95.3%
Bryson Denley run for 2 yds to the BwGrn 46Similar
Q2 10:38
2ND & 8
OWN 46
0
95.4%
Matt McDonald pass incomplete to Quintin MorrisSimilar
Q2 10:38
3RD & 8
OWN 46
+12
95.5%
Matt McDonald pass complete to Julian Ortega-Jones for 12 yds to the Toled 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:38
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+4
95.1%
Matt McDonald pass complete to Tyrone Broden Jr. for 4 yds to the Toled 38Similar
Q2 10:38
2ND & 6
OPP 38
0
95.0%
Matt McDonald pass incomplete to Tyrone Broden Jr., broken up by Samuel WomackSimilar
Q2 10:38
3RD & 6
OPP 38
+1
95.2%
Bryson Denley run for 1 yd to the Toled 37Similar
Q2 7:45
4TH & 5
OPP 37
+4
95.5%
Matt McDonald run for 4 yds to the Toled 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q2 7:39
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
96.8%
Shakif Seymour run for 3 yds to the Toled 36Similar
Q2 7:39
2ND & 7
OWN 36
0
96.8%
Eli Peters pass incomplete, broken up by Anthony HawkinsSimilar
Q2 7:39
3RD & 7
OWN 36
-5
96.7%
PETERS,Eli pass complete to MADDOX,Devin for 10 yards to the TOLEDO46, out-of-bounds, PENALTY TOLEDO illegal formation 5 yards to the TOLEDO31, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:39
3RD & 12
OWN 31
+4
96.7%
Eli Peters pass complete to Shakif Seymour for 4 yds to the Toled 35Similar
Q2 7:39
4TH & 8
OWN 35
0
96.5%
Bailey Flint punt for 7 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Toled 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:045% → 5%
Q2 5:45
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+5
95.4%
Bryson Denley run for 5 yds to the Toled 37Similar
Q2 5:45
2ND & 5
OPP 37
-1
95.3%
Andrew Clair run for a loss of 1 yard to the Toled 38Similar
Q2 4:41
3RD & 6
OPP 38
0
95.3%
Matt McDonald pass incomplete to Presley MotesSimilar
Q2 4:41
4TH & 6
OPP 38
0
95.5%
Matt Naranjo punt for 38 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q2 4:28
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
97.2%
Bryant Koback run for 3 yds to the Toled 23Similar
Q2 4:28
2ND & 7
OWN 23
-1
97.2%
Bryant Koback run for a loss of 1 yard to the Toled 22Similar
Q2 4:28
3RD & 8
OWN 22
+1
97.1%
Eli Peters run for 1 yd to the Toled 23Similar
Q2 4:28
4TH & 7
OWN 23
0
96.9%
Bailey Flint punt for 29 yds , Jake Rogers returns for no gain to the BwGrn 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 15INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q2 2:31
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
96.0%
Matt McDonald pass intercepted Nate Givhan return for no gain to the Toled 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0098% → 97%
Q2 2:25
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
97.6%
Bryant Koback run for no gain to the Toled 47Similar
Q2 2:25
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+9
97.6%
Eli Peters pass complete to Ronnie Blackmon for 9 yds to the BwGrn 44Similar
Q2 2:25
3RD & 1
OPP 44
-2
97.6%
Bryant Koback run for a loss of 2 yards to the BwGrn 46Similar
Q2 2:25
4TH & 3
OPP 46
-5
97.4%
TOLEDO Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the Toled 49Similar
Q2 2:25
4TH & 8
OWN 49
0
97.3%
Bailey Flint punt for 29 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BwGrn 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 17END OF HALF
1 play · -3 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q2 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-3
96.4%
Andrew Clair run for a loss of 3 yards to the BwGrn 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 18FUMBLE
7 plays · 67 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
97.1%
TOLEDO Penalty, delay of game (Eli Peters) to the Toled 20Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+7
97.1%
Eli Peters run for 7 yds to the Toled 27Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+6
97.1%
Bryant Koback run for 6 yds to the Toled 33Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+9
97.1%
Eli Peters pass complete to Devin Maddox for 9 yds to the Toled 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+15
97.2%
Eli Peters run for 15 yds to the BwGrn 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+31
97.3%
Eli Peters run for 31 yds to the BwGrn 8 Eli Peters fumbled, forced by Sy Dabney, recovered by BwGrn Darren AndersSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 19PUNT
9 plays · 39 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q3 13:06
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+9
96.8%
Andrew Clair run for 9 yds to the BwGrn 17Similar
Q3 13:06
2ND & 1
OWN 17
+2
96.7%
Andrew Clair run for 2 yds to the BwGrn 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:06
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
96.7%
Matt McDonald pass incomplete to Presley MotesSimilar
Q3 13:06
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+3
96.7%
Matt McDonald pass complete to Quintin Morris for 3 yds to the BwGrn 22Similar
Q3 13:06
3RD & 7
OWN 22
+23
96.8%
Matt McDonald run for 13 yds to the BwGrn 35 for a 1ST down TOLEDO Penalty, Defensive holding (Justin Clark) to the BwGrn 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:06
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
96.5%
Andrew Clair run for 2 yds to the BwGrn 47Similar
Q3 13:06
2ND & 8
OWN 47
0
96.5%
Matt McDonald pass incomplete to Bryson DenleySimilar
Q3 13:06
3RD & 8
OWN 47
0
96.5%
Matt McDonald pass incomplete to Quintin Morris, broken up by Saeed HoltSimilar
Q3 13:06
4TH & 8
OWN 47
0
96.6%
Matt Naranjo punt for 46 yds, downed at the Toled 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 20TD
12 plays · 93 yds · 5:0498% → 100%
Q3 10:46
1ST & 10
OWN 7
0
97.5%
Eli Peters pass incomplete to Jamal TurnerSimilar
Q3 10:46
2ND & 10
OWN 7
+3
97.5%
Shakif Seymour run for 3 yds to the Toled 10Similar
Q3 10:46
3RD & 7
OWN 10
+12
97.4%
Eli Peters pass complete to Jerjuan Newton for 12 yds to the Toled 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:46
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
97.5%
Shakif Seymour run for no gain to the Toled 22Similar
Q3 10:46
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+34
97.5%
Eli Peters pass complete to Bryant Koback for 34 yds to the BwGrn 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:46
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
97.7%
Eli Peters pass incomplete to Bryce Mitchell, broken up by Myles WilliamsonSimilar
Q3 10:46
2ND & 10
OPP 44
0
97.7%
Eli Peters pass incomplete to Isaiah Winstead, broken up by Diata BurnsSimilar
Q3 10:46
3RD & 10
OPP 44
+11
97.6%
Eli Peters run for 11 yds to the BwGrn 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:46
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-3
97.7%
Micah Kelly run for a loss of 3 yards to the BwGrn 36Similar
Q3 10:46
2ND & 13
OPP 36
-5
97.7%
TOLEDO Penalty, delay of game (Eli Peters) to the BwGrn 41Similar
Q3 10:46
2ND & 18
OPP 41
-1
97.6%
Eli Peters pass complete to Danzel McKinley-Lewis for a loss of 1 yard to the BwGrn 42Similar
Q3 5:42
3RD & 19
OPP 42
+42
99.7%
Eli Peters pass complete to Bryce Mitchell for 42 yds for a TD (Thomas Cluckey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 21FG
8 plays · 62 yds · 1:430% → 1%
Q3 5:37
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+24
99.7%
Matt McDonald run for 24 yds to the Toled 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:37
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+43
99.6%
Matt McDonald pass complete to Julian Ortega-Jones for 42 yds to the Toled 3 for a 1ST down TOLEDO Penalty, roughing passer (Daniel Bolden) to the Toled 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
99.4%
Bryson Denley run for no gain to the Toled 2Similar
Q3 5:37
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
99.4%
Bryson Denley run for no gain to the Toled 2Similar
Q3 5:37
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
0
99.5%
Matt McDonald pass incomplete to Tyrone Broden Jr.Similar
Q3 5:37
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
-5
99.2%
BOWLING GREEN Penalty, false start (Cameron Stage) to the Toled 7Similar
Q3 3:54
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+25
98.9%
Nate Needham 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 22DOWNS
9 plays · 49 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q3 3:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
99.3%
Eli Peters pass complete to Isaiah Winstead for 8 yds to the Toled 33Similar
Q3 3:54
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+6
99.3%
Eli Peters pass complete to Isaiah Winstead for 6 yds to the Toled 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:54
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+14
99.3%
Bryant Koback run for 14 yds to the BwGrn 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:54
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+12
99.4%
Bryant Koback run for 12 yds to the BwGrn 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:54
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+3
99.4%
Bryant Koback run for 3 yds to the BwGrn 32Similar
Q3 3:54
2ND & 7
OPP 32
0
99.4%
Eli Peters pass incomplete to Isaiah WinsteadSimilar
Q3 3:54
3RD & 7
OPP 32
+6
99.4%
Eli Peters pass complete to Jerjuan Newton for 6 yds to the BwGrn 26Similar
Q3 3:54
4TH & 1
OPP 26
0
99.3%
Shakif Seymour run for no gain to the BwGrn 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:321% → 1%
Q3 0:22
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
99.2%
Matt McDonald pass incomplete to Quintin MorrisSimilar
Q3 0:22
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+5
99.2%
Trevon Raymore run for 5 yds to the BwGrn 31Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 31
0
99.2%
Matt McDonald pass incomplete to Presley MotesSimilar
Q4 14:50
4TH & 5
OWN 31
0
99.4%
Matt Naranjo punt for 30 yds, downed at the Toled 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 24PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-10
99.6%
KOBACK,Bryant rush for 8 yards to the TOLEDO47 (DAY, Patrick), PENALTY TOLEDO holding (HARRISON,A.) 10 yards to the TOLEDO29, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:49
1ST & 20
OWN 29
+5
99.5%
Bryant Koback run for 5 yds to the Toled 34Similar
Q4 14:49
2ND & 15
OWN 34
+1
99.5%
Bryant Koback run for 1 yd to the Toled 35Similar
Q4 14:49
3RD & 14
OWN 35
+13
99.5%
Eli Peters pass complete to Danzel McKinley-Lewis for 13 yds to the Toled 48Similar
Q4 14:49
4TH & 1
OWN 48
0
99.5%
Bailey Flint punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Jake Rogers at the BwGrn 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 25PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 12:19
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
99.4%
Matt McDonald pass incomplete to Tyrone Broden Jr., broken up by Samuel WomackSimilar
Q4 12:19
2ND & 10
OWN 12
-1
99.4%
Bryson Denley run for a loss of 1 yard to the BwGrn 11Similar
Q4 12:19
3RD & 11
OWN 11
0
99.4%
Matt McDonald pass incomplete to Quintin Morris, broken up by Jamal HinesSimilar
Q4 12:19
4TH & 11
OWN 11
0
99.4%
Matt Naranjo punt for 28 yds for a 1ST down , Saeed Holt returns for no gain to the BwGrn 11 for a 1ST down TOLEDO Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the BwGrn 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 26TD
4 plays · 24 yds · 0:47100% → 100%
Q4 11:27
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
99.7%
Eli Peters pass incomplete to Jacquez StuartSimilar
Q4 11:27
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+17
99.7%
Shakif Seymour run for 17 yds to the BwGrn 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+1
99.6%
Shakif Seymour run for 1 yd to the BwGrn 6Similar
Q4 10:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
99.9%
Shakif Seymour run for 6 yds for a TD (D.J. Wellons KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 27DOWNS
9 plays · 32 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 10:34
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
99.9%
Trevon Raymore run for 3 yds to the BwGrn 37Similar
Q4 10:34
2ND & 7
OWN 37
+8
99.9%
Trevon Raymore run for 8 yds to the BwGrn 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:34
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
99.9%
Trevon Raymore run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 10:34
2ND & 5
50
+21
99.9%
Matt McDonald pass complete to Noah Massey for 21 yds to the Toled 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:34
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-5
99.9%
Bryson Denley run for a loss of 5 yards to the Toled 34Similar
Q4 10:34
2ND & 15
OPP 34
0
99.9%
Matt McDonald pass incomplete to Bryson DenleySimilar
Q4 10:34
3RD & 15
OPP 34
0
99.9%
Matt McDonald pass incomplete to Tyrone Broden Jr., broken up by Troy SimonSimilar
Q4 10:34
4TH & 15
OPP 34
0
99.9%
Matt McDonald pass incomplete to Julian Ortega-JonesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 28FG
14 plays · 64 yds · 5:39100% → 100%
Q4 8:11
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+11
99.9%
Micah Kelly run for 11 yds to the Toled 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:11
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
99.9%
Micah Kelly run for 4 yds to the Toled 49Similar
Q4 8:11
2ND & 6
OWN 49
-5
99.9%
TOLEDO Penalty, false start (Nick Rosi) to the Toled 44Similar
Q4 8:11
2ND & 11
OWN 44
+10
99.9%
Micah Kelly run for 10 yds to the BwGrn 46Similar
Q4 8:11
3RD & 1
OPP 46
+15
99.9%
Micah Kelly run for 15 yds to the BwGrn 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:11
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+12
99.9%
Jacquez Stuart run for 12 yds to the BwGrn 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:11
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+6
99.9%
Dequan Finn run for 6 yds to the BwGrn 13Similar
Q4 8:11
2ND & 4
OPP 13
+4
99.9%
Dequan Finn run for 4 yds to the BwGrn 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-6
99.9%
Dequan Finn run for 4 yds to the BwGrn 5 TOLEDO Penalty, Offensive holding (Bryce Mitchell) to the BwGrn 15Similar
Q4 8:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 15
+13
99.9%
Jacquez Stuart run for 13 yds to the BwGrn 2Similar
Q4 8:11
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
-1
99.9%
Jacquez Stuart run for a loss of 1 yard to the BwGrn 3Similar
Q4 8:11
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
99.9%
Micah Kelly run for 1 yd to the BwGrn 2Similar
Q4 2:32
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+19
100.0%
Thomas Cluckey 19 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 29END OF GAME
5 plays · 25 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 2:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
100.0%
Trevon Raymore run for 4 yds to the BwGrn 29Similar
Q4 2:32
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+5
100.0%
Bryson Denley run for 5 yds to the BwGrn 34Similar
Q4 2:32
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+7
100.0%
Trevon Raymore run for 7 yds to the BwGrn 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:32
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+9
100.0%
Trevon Raymore run for 9 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 5:42
Eli Peters pass complete to Bryce Mitchell for 42 yds for a TD (Thomas Cluckey KICK)
+2.1
TD · Q1 3:21
Eli Peters pass complete to Jerjuan Newton for 18 yds for a TD Timeout TOLEDO, clock 03:21 (Eli Peters pass for Two-Point Conversion)
+1.8
KEY PLAY · Q2 4:28
Bryant Koback run for 3 yds to the Toled 23
+1.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com